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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-27-01, 00:01 AM (EST) "If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" So let's dig in. The final two will be determined by the Final Immunity Challenge. It is pretty much agreed that Keith is a shoe-in for the finals now. If either Tina or Colby win IC, they will bring Keith into the finals with them. What isn't so clear is who Keith would bring with him: Tina or Colby. I think he brings Tina. Here's why. 1) Loyalty: He has been in this game with Tina, not Colby. We know blood has been bad between the two gents for a while, so if he does not win the money, he would prefer it go to Tina. Remember his famous words about doing whatever he can to make sure Jerri doesn't win. This is just precedence for a type of thinking that would sway his vote toward someone he has greater affection for (Tina). Let's also mention, he's only made it this far because of Tina, and he knows it. 2) Logic: With a million dollars at stake, I suppose anyone would hold out hope for an upset, even though he probably is aware that his beating either Tina or Colby would be a sizeable upset. But if he were to consider who he'd have a better chance at beating, I believe, with a little thought, he will think his chances are better against Tina. One reason is that it could be argued Colby has proven he deserves the win because he has won nearly all the challenges in the last 5 weeks. But it all comes down to votes, and Keith will see that Colby has a lock on too many jury members votes to bring with him. He will look at who garners greater affection from each of the jury members and this is what he will find: Alicia: Does not know either player well, but would probably vote for strength, her age range, and will probably be influenced by Jerri (though Keith may not know they are now friends). Preference: Colby Jerri: Duh. Preference: Colby. Nick: WE know he bonds with Colby, but did Keith. Since they HAVEN'T had time to bond on the ranch, the relationship probably got a start at camp. Regardless, age and strength point in same direction. Preference: Colby. Amber: Was closer to Colby the whole game. Would not sway from Jerri. Preference: Colby. Rodger: Good guy. Preference: Tina. Elisabeth: Good guy. Preference: Tina. According to my math, his chances are better with Tina. This, coupled with his loyalty to her, will leave him feeling he must bring Tina with him, and therefore he wins either way.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who doe... volmel 04-27-01 1    RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who doe... Play2Survive 04-27-01 2        RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who doe... idiotcowboy 04-27-01 3            Colby's post-Amber comments AyatollahKhomeini 04-27-01 15        He'd get rid of Tina BaquaR13 04-27-01 4            RE: He'd get rid of Tina volmel 04-27-01 5                a little help please... shakes the clown 04-27-01 6                    RE: a little help please... volmel 04-27-01 8                        RE: a little help please... nailbone 04-27-01 13                            RE: a little help please... volmel 04-27-01 14        RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who doe... Loree 04-28-01 19  RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who doe... mavsfan 04-27-01 7    RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who doe... namssa 04-27-01 9        RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who doe... Survivorchick 04-27-01 16  RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who doe... StratPlayer 04-27-01 10  RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who doe... SurvivinDawg 04-27-01 11    RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who doe... lambity 04-27-01 12        RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who doe... namssa 04-27-01 17            RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who doe... Play2Survive 04-28-01 18                RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who doe... jjtay 04-28-01 20

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volmel 362 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 04-27-01, 00:11 AM (EST) 1. "RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" > It is pretty much >agreed that Keith is a >shoe-in for the finals now. > If either Tina or >Colby win IC, they will >bring Keith into the finals >with them. Are we 100 percent sure of this? This is Big Orange and Tina Wesson country.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-27-01, 00:24 AM (EST) 2. "RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" Aparently not. I just read AyaK's post suggesting that Colby would take Tina with him out of loyalty and then argue his case before the jury. It's a good argument that should be explored more. Colby's comment tonight about Tina does have me thinking there might be something to this. However, Colby's last two TC votes have been for the one he LIKES, not the one he can beat. It seems he's kept Keith around for the Final 2. Actually, I think Colby WOULD beat Tina at this point, but I'm waiting to read more theories on this.   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-27-01, 00:41 AM (EST) 3. "RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" >It seems he's kept Keith around for the Final 2. Or did Tina talk him into it? It's hard to tell at this point. Both Tina and Colby put their game faces on and MB hasn't been showing us much of what Tina thinks of late. Lis doing as well as she did on the RC probably ultimately did her in, but I wouldn't put it past puppetmaster BT pulling a few strings here on Colby. -ICB   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 04-27-01, 02:59 PM (EST) 15. "Colby's post-Amber comments" Last week Webby started a thread discussing why there weren't any of Colby's comments shown about the Amber boot, especially when it seemed the boot caught him off guard. I offered the theory that Colby probably did a confessional on it, but MB chose not to show it because it revealed too much of Colby's strategy. The more I thought about that, the more I liked it. And the only way that I could see Colby's strategy mattering was if Colby was not getting booted last night. It appears to me that MB has really hidden from us what Colby and Tina think, although he's shown us lots of Keith. Are there any significant omissions in what has been presented that could be telling?   Top

BaquaR13 1336 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 04-27-01, 01:14 AM (EST) 4. "He'd get rid of Tina" All of the later part of this game Colby has been saying, "should i do the right thing or the strategic thing?" He has done the strategic every time (voting out Rodger, and Elisabeth, ugh!) Ok, so anyways, i think Colby is motivated to win, and might take Keith. Just my opinion though.   Top

volmel 362 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 04-27-01, 01:24 AM (EST) 5. "RE: He'd get rid of Tina" An interesting little side note. On the CBS web site, they now have little videos where you can listen to the reasoning behind Keith's, Tina's and Colby's voting off Elizabeth tonight: http://survivor.cbs.com/primetime/survivor2/show/episode13/story5.html This is Big Orange and Tina Wesson country.   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-27-01, 01:26 AM (EST) 6. "a little help please..." I can't get realplayer to work so can someone post the transcript or a summary. Thanks   Top

volmel 362 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 04-27-01, 01:45 AM (EST) 8. "RE: a little help please..." I listened to it several times and did my super duper legal shorthand: Keith's we heard on the show, so I'll do Tina's and Colby's. Tina: Elisabeth, this is strictly a strategic vote. None of us want to have to come against you in the finals, cause you are America's sweetheart - loved and adored by all, especially me. It's just a game. I love you. Colby's was harder to hear, but this is what I came up with: Elisabeth, you know how I feel about you. Plain and simple, I don't think there's a way in the world I could win if you were sitting next to me at tribal council, and that is the only reason I (couldn't make out the rest). This is Big Orange and Tina Wesson country.   Top

nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-27-01, 02:29 PM (EST) 13. "RE: a little help please..." >Elisabeth, you know how I feel >about you. Plain and >simple, I don't think there's >a way in the world >I could win if you >were sitting next to me >at tribal council, and that >is the only reason I wrote your name here. The road goes on forever and the party never ends - Robert Earl Keen   Top

volmel 362 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 04-27-01, 02:38 PM (EST) 14. "RE: a little help please..." Thanks Nailbone. that was driving me crazy. This is Big Orange and Tina Wesson country.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-28-01, 12:14 PM (EST) 19. "RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" I believe Colby would beat either Tina or Keith in the final 2. If Colby realizes this he may take Tina instead of sure-thing Keith. But I think Tina has to be a little nervous about facing Colby. She may have Colby believing she would take him. But I'm putting my money on Keith. Tina wants that million. She thinks she can beat Keith. Keith is a little harder to guess. We don't get alot of moments with Keith telling us his strategy. Does he have one? But he seems to really dislike Colby now. So I think he would take Tina since he feels he owes her. Plus he may think he can beat her. She has been back-stabbing. But again we are left out of so many conversations that we can't be 100% sure what any of them are thinking. For all we know Keith and Colby could have a secret alliance and they are pretending to fight to mess with Tina's head. (I doubt it. But I wouldn't put anything past MB).   Top

mavsfan 693 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-27-01, 01:30 AM (EST) 7. "RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" If Keith wins Immunity, he will probalby bring Colby. He knows: 1) Colby has 5 Kucha votes against him so far, Tina 0. 2) The Jury knows Keith owes Tina big time for stepping down in the first immunity challenge. Keith knows if he makes the final 2 with Tina, the Jury will be reminded Keith is there, only because of Tina's magnanimous gesture. Keith would lose in a landslide. Some are going to argue Keith would take Tina because: 1) Gratitude to Tina. 2) Friction between him and Colby. However, self interest would override any since of gratitude so he won't select Tina (we are talking $1,000,000 stinkin dollars). Too, if Colby's rubbing him the wrong way, he will clutch at the idea that maybe Colby's rubbing other people the wrong way as well. He will be hoping that there is more of an anti-Colby feeling on the jury than an anti-Tina feeling. If Keith wins Immunity, he will see his best chance (which is really no chance at all), as being against Colby. Colby makes the final 2 if he OR Keith win the next immunity.   Top

namssa 24 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 04-27-01, 02:20 AM (EST) 9. "RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" I truly am not sure who any of them will take to the final vote. Does Colby take Keith who strategically is the good call or does he take Tina because he has had an alliance with her (especially after hearing his words tonight about Tina)? Does Tina take Keith who stragegically is the good call and possible K/T alliance or did she really have one with Colby and therefor honors that alliance with him? Does Keith take Tina who has been carrying him and honor a possible K/T alliance or does he take Colby who is Keith's only, allbeit a longshot, chance of winning? I can easily seeing all possibilities playing out and not be totally shocked.   Top

Survivorchick 1161 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-27-01, 03:28 PM (EST) 16. "RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" I really don't think alliances come into play this late in the game. They all want that money and will do anything to get it. Even if Keith had a deal with Tina, I don't think that is why he'll choose her. She has been manipulative from the beginning. The jury knows that. Colby has played the game pretty straight. He would have a better chance to win against her than Colby. Colby knows he has a better shot at the money if he's sitting beside Keith than beside Tina. He would undoubtably pick Keith. The same goes for Tina. Colby wins immunity: Colby vs Keith = COLBY wins! Keith wins immunity: Keith vs Tina = TINA wins! Tina wins immunity: Tina vs Keith = TINA wins!   Top

StratPlayer 27 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-27-01, 03:46 AM (EST) 10. "RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" LAST EDITED ON 04-27-01 AT 04:06 AM (EST) No matter who Keith picks, Keith will probably not get votes from A/L/R and the person he does not choose (Colby or Tina.) The best he can get is three votes and that is optimistic. It seems to me Keith can’t win no matter who he picks. Maybe Keith will realize this and take the person he most wants to see get the million along with him. That would be Tina. If Tina or Colby win IC, one of them will take Keith into the final two because T/C also see that Keith can't get the votes to win. (edited for grammer)   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-27-01, 07:11 AM (EST) 11. "RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" LAST EDITED ON 04-27-01 AT 07:15 AM (EST) If Keith does make the final two, I agree that he'll take Tina because of your (P2S) reasons above. But I am not convinced that Keith makes the final two if he doesn't win immunity. If Colby wins it, he might consider that he could win against Tina, but if he doesn't he'd rather Tina have the money than Keith. I see Colby getting at least 4 votes against Tina: Jerri, Amber, Alicia and Nick (does anyone need an explanation of why?). I see Colby wiping Keith out 5-2 or 6-1 (Rodger may give his fishing buddy a vote, Tina being the other). I noted that Tina was shown to be very unhappy that she lost (or Colby won) the RC. So much so that JP asked Tina about it at TC. Tina gave her real feelings at first ("it's frustrating that he gets all the food") but then tried to cover by saying she didn't hold it against Colby, he was just playing the game. Nonetheless, Tina will take Keith to the Final Two should she win IC. Edited to add: A Keith/Tina final, however, gives Jerri a real dilemma. But Tina at that time probably wouldn't know that Jerri thinks of her as BT (as we do). Would Jerri actually give Keith the million dollars?!?!?!?! Naah... Jerri's exit interviews tell us that much... so I'm seeing either a C/T final or a C/K final two. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey   Top

lambity 50 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 04-27-01, 08:03 AM (EST) 12. "RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" I think that Keith will bring Tina into the Final 2 if he wins immunity, and Tina will win the whole thing if that happens. Colby will never bring Tina into the Final 2 if he does win the final IC, because he mentioned at Ep.13 TC when he voted for Lis that he will definitely not win the whole thing if it was Lis next to him in the Final 2. But I think that the Colbster will fall one short of his goal if the Final IC is the "Fallen Comrades" challenge such as the one in S1. Tina interacts with everyone and will be hard to beat in such a challenge. It would be great to see Colby or Tina win the game in the end, simply because they really played the game the best regardless of how the chose to play it.   Top

namssa 24 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 04-27-01, 04:07 PM (EST) 17. "RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" Although I think it isn't likely, Keith still can win this thing. I'm not a big fan of his but here is how it could play out. If Tina wins final IC she would boot Colby. That could seriously piss Colby off. Jerri, Amber and now Colby all could vote for Keith. That means he would only need one vote for either Alicia and/or Nick. I can definately see Nick voting for Keith. So I wouldn't say anything is definate yet. Who though Richard would win #1. The catch with final IC is if you win you have to boot someone. By booting that person you are likely to lose their vote in the jury. Especially if perceived alliances are broken.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-28-01, 02:45 AM (EST) 18. "RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" I agree that the scenario mentioned is possible, but quite a longshot. As you mentioned, for this to play out.... 1) Tina must win immunity and remove Colby 2) There would have to have been a broken promise in that choice. Tina would have had to have promised Colby it would be him and then switched the vote.....a classic rat-like Kelly move. That could be enough for Keith to get the nod from Colby, Jerri and Amber. Not enough to get votes from Elisabeth, Rodger or Nick (I disagree with you here. Nick had the option to vote for Keith, Tina, Colby or Amber. He went AGAINST his tribe - who voted for Amber - and risked his own head, because Keith's arrogance angered him that much. Ni, I don't believe he can win Nick's vote). That would make Alicia the swing. Hmmmm, that might be a tough decision for her - does she choose the guy or the gal? A small aside: I didn't see it mentioned on here after E8, but when Alicia was on Rosie, Rosie asked her if she would give her a training session. Alicia paused and said, "Well Rosie, you know I can't perform miracles."   Top

jjtay 24 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 04-28-01, 03:14 PM (EST) 20. "RE: If Keith wins Immunity, who does he bring?" It really doesn't matter who he brings because he is a big looser!!!! If he wins the last challange I think I will faint! Watching him in the other challanges he has gotten ahead of himself & screwed up.   Top

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