>Q1a) If you were Tina and Keith, do you vote off
>Colby or Liz first? b)In arriving at that answer, presumably
>the key consideration is who has the greater potential to
>win the last IC and thus scupper your plans? This is easy: Colby. You want the best shot possible at winning that Final IC.
>Q2) Tina is aware by now that a combined Liz/Colby vote
>will result in Keith's boot. So, a)who does she approach
>to ensure that Keith is protected? b)Who is likely to
>be more compliant?
Who CAN Tina approach? By that I mean to ENSURE Keith's protection. The only thing she can truly do is hope and pray that Keith wins immunity. She can use logic with Lis: "If Colby is gone, you have a 1 in 3 shot of winning Final IC, girl. But if he is still here, we're both in the soup." She can try to work Colby, but I think he would pay her lip service and still realize that he's the vulnerable one.
>Q3) What if Colby and Liz insist that they want Keith
>gone and that's the end of it? What reasons would
>they have for wanting this to happen?
You said it: that's the end of it. Especially for Keith. The reasons for wanting it to happen? For Lis: she survives to the Final 3 and has that chance to win Final IC. For Colby, not only does he survive (he might anyway if Lis were the next bootee), he enhances his chances to win that Final IC and the Game if Keith is not there as opposition.
>Q4) Colby can have little doubt that he is the next
>pick. a) Can he trust Tina/Keith if they tell him
>that they're voting for Liz and what logic can they
>use that would be compelling?
>b) Can you discard his comments that his game with
>Keith is over and that either Tina or Liz would
>make more worthy winners?
>c) If he doesn't trust Tina/Keith, will he able to presuade
>Liz to help him vote off Keith?
a) Colby would be smart NOT to trust T/K right now, although I'm sure he'll give them lip service.
b) Discard nothing. Don't hang your hat on it, either. Colby thinks only ONE person is truly worthy to win that $1 million: himself.
c) I think Lis would jump at the chance to survive to the all-important Final Three.
>Q5a) Does Liz's character suggest that she would rather see one
>of the good guys win and so vote with Colby
>to oust Keith? OR b)does she see the benefit of
>keeping Keith in terms of almost certainly beating him in
>a final two. c) would she still feel confident against
>Colby or Tina?
Lis must realize that her ONLY chance is simply to make the Final Three then Final Immunity. Nobody else is going to carry that sweet little cutie into the Final Two with the big Rodger vote looming (and the Jerricorps' anti-Keith or anti-Tina vote). So if this isn't her overriding concern, it should be.
If Lis DOES win that Final IC, then she likely wins against ANYONE, so she can have "confidence". If Keith is one of the final 3, I'm sure she'd pick him to go against.
>Q6) What if Colby wins IC again?
Then he makes the final three. DUH! 
Sorry, couldn't resist that one.
>Is he likely to >side with Keith/Tina who would
>vote for Liz. Or does he go with his conscience
>and go with Keith knowing that Liz's vote would be
>enough?
Nothing changes. Colby should vote out Keith. He REALLY should vote out Tina, but we're going to be realistic about this.
>Q7) Applying the same for Q6, what if Liz wins IC?
The dynamic changes. Lis should vote out Colby to give herself the best chance to win Final IC. Can I possibly stress the importance of that Final IC enough?!?!
>Q8) What if Keith triumphs instead? Does this make a Colby
>ouster a certainty?
In my mind, it does, but with MB I will not use the word "certainty" about anything.
*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
"When I come in, the party will begin. I am... SurvivinDawg." -- SurvivinDawg
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