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"CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings
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04-24-01, 05:50 PM (EST)
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"CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
Since I have not seen too many new posts and the threads of analysis are all over the place I figured that it would be helpful, being that we are just two days away, to consolodate the analysis information and go on from there.

CBS PROMO:
=======================================
The Survivors are shocked by what they see when they get an object from "normal life".

>> This one has been almost 100% proven to be a reference to the mirror that they acquire. We are not sure yet if they receive this item through a challenge or are just given it?

One Survivor is spending a lot of time on his own, leaving another to muse that he must be worried about losing the next Immunity Challenge. Who is he?

>> Obviously this one is either Keith or Colby. Many have surmised that it is Keith as last week he was very worried about being booted. I believe that this is a reference to Colby. Not so much him worrying about having to win immunity but more along the lines of what he must do depending on who wins immunity. This is along the lines of the "Keith must win immunity" post from earlier this week. More on that later...

The Reward Challenge promises the biggest reward yet, but with it comes the unexpected.

>> I'll go into analysis of the challenge itself later though lets discuss the reward itself. Some believe that it will be similar to last years "night on a yacht" that Sean won. After winning his father was flown from San Francisco, where he and one member of everyone's family were waiting on standby to find out who won. His father brought with him care packages from each family. I kinda believe that it is a little too late in the competition for this kind of reward, especially with the internet chat to home last week...

thinking of that... I remember Roger's wife on one of the shows they were on together (maybe the morning show) where she said that she and the kids were flown somewhere to do the internet chat with Roger. I remember this because I thought while watching the show that I was seeing Roger's house. If what she said was true (sorry this is from memory, I do not have the transcript) then it is possible that this week's reward will be a visit from a family member. If each family was flown to a California location for the internet chat (even though it looked as though they were in their own homes) then they are consolodated and could easily be flown out from California the next day. Something else to think about... If it is a family member (which I am still not cinvinced about) then it can't be Tina's family as she as she would have done more than just state "Welcome to Baramundi". Same should hold true for Liz. Her facial expression isn't that of someone seeing a loved one, more like that of someone who see's someone famous (like Crocodile Dundee or The Croc Hunter - more on that later)... ========================================

OK, pics... 9thanx, Okieloki, Aha, etc...

Reward Challenge. Now it is not assured that this is the Reward Challenge but since CBS and MB have not been showing us the Immunity Challenge until Wednesday, if at all, then logic points to this being reward...


Here they are arriving. Note the clothing keeping in mind that Tina has on the black sports bra thingy under her yellow tank top...

This shot shows that there are essentially three legs to the race. The first is the rope maze section (might be similar to the EP11 reward in that the players are attached. It has also be shown that they are blind folded while in the portion of the race, though they drop the blindfolds after escaping this section. Anyway, here are some shots of that section of the race...


The second leg is a plank walk (while carrying a bucket?). Note that the blindfolds are removed here. Some pics below...

In the above pic you can see a tub (likely filled with water) and someone (Tina or Liz) running back to likely refill.

The final section contains a platform of some sort. This is likely where the survivors pour the buckets of water into something filling it up. Some pics below...


The below shots are, I believe, reactions to the game. From the looks I do not believe that Colby or Tina won. Possibly Liz or Keith as he is not shown.


Visitor Pics












The item that Keith holds (a toothbrush and paste does lend credence to the care package idea).

Other non-related pics




Anyway, I will add to this more tomorrow but something to think about in the mean time...

Looking at the scheduled appearances, only Keith has something going. It is in relation to his cook book so it may just be a coincidence but here it is...

Keith Famie

(Sat April 28) Book Signing - Nino Salvaggio, Troy, MI 10 am - 12 noon
(Sat April 28 ) Book Signing - Hudsons, Novi MI 1 pm - 3 pm
(Sat April 28) Book Signing - Nino Salvaggio, St. Clair Shores, MI 4 - 6 pm

He may be trying to take advantage of the "I just got booted" fame or...

Since we know that usually the booted Survivor is in NY on Friday, it might be difficult for him to get back to MI for this appearance. Possible spoiler evidence of him staying? What do you guys think?

Anyway, til tommorrow...

Conspiracy Jim
"Ya, sure we went to the moon"?!!!

Ya know, Mark Burnett kinda looks like Jesus. I wonder...?

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALY... Outfrontgirl 04-24-01 1
 RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALY... Bungler 04-24-01 2
   RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALY... IceCat 04-24-01 3
       RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALY... Bungler 04-24-01 7
   RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALY... thecrock 04-25-01 10
 RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALY... IM_Nessie 04-24-01 4
   RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALY... Bungler 04-24-01 6
 RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALY... roswellite 04-24-01 5
   Preview confirms challenge is IC Outfrontgirl 04-25-01 8
       RE: Preview confirms challenge is I... Bungler 04-25-01 11
           RE: Preview confirms challenge is I... thecrock 04-25-01 17
   RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALY... SurvivinDawg 04-25-01 9
       RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALY... westerberg14 04-25-01 12
 RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALY... kanabo 04-25-01 13
   RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALY... Bebo 04-25-01 14
       RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALY... roswellite 04-25-01 15
           Glad it's gotten easier Bebo 04-25-01 16

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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04-24-01, 06:41 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
More great work, CJ! I always admire how you and Ice Cat, among others, work out these challenges from just a few clips.

The first shot of Lis (with the funny, thinking hard, look on her face) shows her wearing a different top, with stripes and straps, so it must be from another time frame.

In the challenge it looks to me like she's wearing her pink bathing suit top, with variations of the orange bandana tied over it. No shoulder straps.

Yes, Tina looks like she simply took off the yellow top after getting hot and so the black sports bra is the same outfit.
This pretty much has to be RC (reasons you gave above are persuasive anyway) if the helicopter follows while they have the same clothes on. After IC they always go into the paranoia stress mode for the time left before TC.

It wouldn't be overkill for MB to have another relative-related reward. Last season there were videos, a phone call, letters, and a visit with care packages--4 episodes that I can count--so 2 is a decrease, actually.

As I said on the guest thread, MB writes in Survivor that the visit was a logistical nightmare--there were 7 people on hold, so I think it's very likely he would make it later in season just to simplify things with about half the number of relatives.

Keith doesn't look pleased or happy in any shot. This leads me to believe that he's the one being antisocial and thus worried. I think the worry about immunity is more straightforward: simply, I've got a great shot at being gone if I don't win. Keith knows he has the most votes in a tiebreaker now, for the first time since the merge, and there's an even number of votes coming up, so he has to be concerned about that.

For Colby, the concept of losing if he loses immunity should have been with him for a few episodes now. I don't see him changing his social habits out of any new concerns, especially with Keith having more votes all of a sudden, which should relieve the Colbster.

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Bungler 497 desperate attention whore postings
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04-24-01, 07:14 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
LAST EDITED ON 04-24-01 AT 07:20 PM (EST)

CJ --

I have widely divergent ideas from yours, but still much prefer your consolidation method of coming at this. So here's the Bungler nebulous (i.e. "I don't know diddly") notion of what's going on.

As I said in the vidcaps section, I think the challenge you suspect as RC is definitely IC (way too high stakes for a reward challenge, no matter how fancy the reward itself is). The challenge is a mini-version of several past challenges. Rather than post a dozen or more vidcaps and slow this sucker down, I'll just direct you to the vidcaps topic to see this explanation in vidcap form.

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1343.shtml

My guess is that the challenge goes in this order. Here are two captures showing aerial shots of the course, just for reference purposes.



1. Start at rope maze (blindfolded) -- copy of Rope Maze RC
2. Solve "Outwit" puzzle (blinds removed) -- copy of Large Puzzle RC when Kucha won chickens.
3. Retrieve something attached to string on post -- Don't know what previous challenge this relates to, but it's definitely something hanging on a string that Lis plucks off this post in the preview.
4. Run to the far end of the course to the table-shapes to retrieve kindling. (see table-shapes in cap 43 above) Carry this kindling to the fire tower and light fire (see also cap 43 for towers). -- copy of previous Fire Tower IC.
5. Run back to water tubs sitting just after the post (from Step 3), fill small pail with water and carry it across a winding balance beam. Fall of the beam and you have to start again. -- copy of previous Water Torture RC.
6. Fill Fire Tower bucket with water to raise burning side up and light fuse. First fuse lighted is winner of IC. -- copy of Fire Tower again.

CBS's website preview bills this as the "Ultimate Challenge." And rather than being purely physical (benefiting Colby), it plays to several strengths: physical strength (ropes, running, etc.); smarts (being able to solve puzzle); balancing skill (over the balance beam, which would logically favor the women more than the men).


The "reaction" shots you've highlighted above are what I believe to be Lis and Tina playing the "Paired Off" concentration game. If you can watch in slo-mo, you can see both women's eyes moving as if they are considering a large board game of some sort. Also note that in the physical challenge above Lis is wearing her orange tube top, but in the "reaction" shots she is wearing her striped tank top. I also have a shot of Colby & Lis standing next to each other in this game on my caps page. I believe this paired off challenge is for RC. They win care packages and possibly a trip to a spa or something. And I think Paul Hogan (Croc Dundee) brings the care packages and possibly takes the Reward winner (Tina?--who seems the most eager to greet him) to whatever special reward she wins.

As for anything else, I'm only guessing.

In my early guessing stage, I'm leaning towards Keith for IC and for Colby to be booted. Don't ask me why. I haven't figured that much out yet. 8)

-Bungler

P.S. Here' are a few links to all of my caps.
http://bungler.xoasis.com/caps1.html
http://bungler.xoasis.com/caps2.html
http://bungler.xoasis.com/precaps1.html
http://bungler.xoasis.com/precaps2.html
http://bungler.xoasis.com/precaps3.html

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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04-24-01, 07:25 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
Outstanding work Bungler... great job on the selection of frames and the annotation...

Have you seen AyaK's post on the alternation of the RC and IC between physical vs. mental/luck?

If his assertion is correct we are due for a less physical IC... maybe the 'Paired Off' challenge?

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04-24-01, 10:52 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
IceCat --

Yep, saw AyaK's RC/IC theory. I'll be stubborn though and stick to my notion that this one's an IC though. ;)

Of course, I still want the leeway to change my mind and would welcome anyone who can sway me otherwise.

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04-25-01, 08:32 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
LAST EDITED ON 04-25-01 AT 08:36 AM (EST)

I agree with Ice Cat great Vid Caps and excellent analysis. It is the Ultimate Challenge indeed. But considering how important the balance beam is I'd have to rate Liz as the favorite and Keith as the least favorite. As we saw with the earlier pyrotechnic challenge it's not necessarily how fast you get to the see-saw.

As for the RC the past few episodes the RC has been highlighted on the Early Show. I would look for us to learn something new about them on Thursday am. The reward is the "best yet". Hogan definitely could fit in, but for what? Pontiac Aztek is the sponser, not Subaru Outback which Hogan pitches. A date would sound okay but hardly the best yet, unless it were really special. It it hadn't already opened I'd suggest she gets a cameo in the new movie, or a trip to the premier as well.

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IM_Nessie 17 desperate attention whore postings
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04-24-01, 08:08 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
I find this picture of Keith intriguing.

He appears to be pausing after the rope maze and before the balance beam...he has suffered some sort of setback, perhaps?

Also, you look at the platform behind Liz in this pic

It appears to be some sort gameboard with pieces on it. Perhaps Liz is pulling one of the pieces off the pole...

I'm not much of a gamer so I can't even begin to imagine what sort of gameboard it is. Any ideas, comments, criticisms, rebuttals?

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04-24-01, 10:46 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
IM_Nessie

On the Keith pic, I believe this is a shot before the game is played. I think JP is possibly explaining the course. This is the only shot they've given us with Keith involving this challenge. Everyone else is shown participating at some part of the challenge, but Keith is not. For some warped reason, this is one the things that makes me suspect he pulls this one out and wins this challenge. Don't know why, just a hunch. The reason I think this pic is from before the challenge is...well, there are two or three reasons. 1) he's wearing his cap, which I don't think he'd be wearing during the challenge (especially if they have to wear blindfolds in the rope maze part). 2) He's not wearing a blindfold at all, whereas everyone else is, even from the start of the challenge. 3) A lot of people see Keith's stance as "defeated" in this shot, but I think he's focused. If you could see this segment in slow-motion you'd see that he's looking at the course. He first looks almost directly towards the camera (which would be where the fire towers would be), then turns his eyes to our right, as if he were looking in the far distance at the tables. Then he takes two steps forward. So I think this is a walk-through of the challenge course.

On the Lis pic, the puzzle behind her says "Outwit." And what she's plucking from the post is most definitely a string-type thing of some sort, with something attached at the end. I've speculated that it might be a key of some sort. Or maybe it's a lighter to light the fire in the fire tower portion of the challenge.

Of course, I could be wrong on any or all of this.

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04-24-01, 09:24 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
About those Internet chats, the only mention by Jeff P. of them being at home, was with Elisabeth's family. With the others, he never said where they were. Elisabeth's family, both parents and brother, looked like they were in a home with all the knick-knacks on the shelves. Colby's mom was the only family shown, and in the background were a cabinet with photographs and a Texas flag. Now the funny thing about that flag, it looked brand new and it still had fold creases, like it hadn't been hanging there for long. Tina's kids and hubby were in a very plain room, but there were photos on the desk and wall. Keith's fiance was in a very plain room, too. Rodger's family, wife, daughter and son-in-law, appeared to be out on a patio. I believe on the Early Show, she mentioned the family was out of town at Thanksgiving when SII contacted them for the chat.

I still think a family visit could be in order. This person, possibly more than one standing by, could have been in Australia for the chat. Then when the appropriate person won a challenge, they could be the visitor bearing gifts for all. If there is someone waiting in Australia, my guess is that it's not Colby's family, only because he's won so many challenges that they could have already been on. The facial expressions are a hard read, with the editing. We don't see Keith smiling, but maybe he's the winner and the smiles aren't in our preview. During the preview we do see Tina and Lis excited at various points and Colby smiling.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-01, 03:08 AM (EST)
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8. "Preview confirms challenge is IC"
Well Bungler, I liked AK's theory but the truth has been made known and you are right. Saw a new preview here tonight which shows the above challenge and clearly states in voiceover that it's the immunity challenge of a lifetime.

Keith is shown competing at the beginning, crawling under ropes over sand with his face barely above said sand. He is wearing his sunglasses and not only is hatless, but stripped to waist, not even bandana or blindfold in shot. Then a shot of Tina in the challenge, then:

"One of these four Survivors will get the most precious gift of all (shots of all, lingers on Colby with a very sweet smile), cuts to the four lined up with Tina covering mouth and Lis screaming loudly as with excitement, not anxiety.
(announcement should be RC-related, but oddly, they're wearing the clothes they wear in the featured IC challenge. Could this surprise come late in the show?)

Then backstabbing foreshadowing:
"the person (shot Keith) they trust the most (shot Tina) could be the (Colby) ultimate betrayer (Lis in striped top), cut to Colby interview: "how bad do you want the money?".

Montage of challenge shots: "it's the immunity challenge of a lifetime."

Ends with Keith sitting with full bandana headdress under cap, looking piercingly around with Keith voiceover: "it's anybody's game right now."

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Bungler 497 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-01, 09:06 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Preview confirms challenge is IC"
Outfrontgirl -- Cool, that's the preview I capped. The Keith shot you're talking about it is this one:

Weird thing is: it's from ep 9's obstacle course challenge (when Keith was paired with Amber, and Colby dragged Jerri's butt all the way to the Great Barrier Reef). When I first capped that last Saturday, it made no sense and I mentioned it, so someone at EZ went back to their tape and determined that it was definitely a shot from the Ep 9 challenge.

Question remains: Why would MB insert an ep 9 challenge shot of Keith into ep 13's preview? Diversion? Confusion? To imply something? Keith bombed in the second run of that challenge, which was a challenge course with many legs, like ep 13's. It's weird that they'd throw it in. I don't know what it means. One possibility is that they threw it in for regular Joe viewers, to give them the impression that they were seeing Keith competing in this particular challenge. But then why are they clearly not showing Keith in any leg of ep 13's challenge. Is he too far ahead? Too far behind? Very interesting point to consider, eh?

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thecrock 14 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-01, 12:49 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Preview confirms challenge is IC"
I think the most logical explanation (which isn't always the correct explanation) is that Keith plain and simply bombed out. I just can't see this man being capable of manuvering the balance beam enough times to win this event. As I recall he was pathetically poor in the water torture event. Keith's a fiest or famine kind of guy.
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04-25-01, 07:35 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
>Colby's mom was the only family shown, and in the
>background were a cabinet with photographs and a Texas flag.
> Now the funny thing about that flag, it looked
>brand new and it still had fold creases, like it
>hadn't been hanging there for long

Good observation, roswellite. I noticed some strangenesses about that Texas flag, also. Of course we know Colby brought a Texas flag as his luxury item, so it was clear the producers wanted that visual Texas connection. I also saw this as an attempt to make this look "Texan", but there was nothing else about this room to make one think of Texas (and I sat there wondering why we are witnessing SUCH a loyalty to Texas: sure they love their state, but this is a bit over the top). And then it hits me: MB likes to feature a person the episode BEFORE they are waxed. If MB has the game fixed and Colby goes this week, he'd know to feature that Texas flag in preparation for the "Don't mess with Texas" quote....

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey

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westerberg14 23 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-01, 09:11 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
Still a bit of a lurker here - but I'll add my 2 cents...

I fully agree that the Obstacle Course is IC with parts of previous challenges combined to make the winner the ultimate survivor...

I think alot of shots of Liz are used because she is in the first lane and this doesn't give away positions of other racers ...

Liz could be grabbing a key to unlock pail used later in challenge - or matches for fire is good idea too...

Almost all of the shots of Keith seem to be negative in nature - usually looks dejected or worried - is this to plant seed in our minds that he is in trouble - even though in reality he doesn't go this week...

Race like this should favor Colby - but most spoilers have him out this week ... could they all be wrong??

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kanabo 6 desperate attention whore postings
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04-25-01, 09:33 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
While I like the analysis, I disagree with (or have more info on) a few of your statements which gives me a slightly different perspective:

1) I remember Roger's wife on one of the shows they were on together (maybe the morning show) where she said that she and the kids were flown somewhere to do the internet chat with Roger.

Actually, she mentioned that she flew to Chicago to be with family over the holiday and that is where the S2 crew caught up with her.


2) Now it is not assured that this is the Reward Challenge but since CBS and MB have not been showing us the Immunity Challenge until Wednesday, if at all, then logic points to this being reward...

I disagree, last week one of the main aspects of the preview was the shackles & chains IC. I can't be sure, but I think that they have shown us the IC about as often as they have shown the RC. If you add the Thurs. AM plug on the Early show, we have seen more of the IC than the RC.


Now my thoughts:

If they were to fly a family member in, we have to allow at least 2 days (time to pack, flight time, proper intro/welcome/warning from MB, rest time) from the internet chat. While the rewards, I assume, are all three days apart it is possible, but pushing it. What if a flight was delayed or canceled? I don't think that MB would take the risk by cutting it so close. Then, when you add in the reaction of the survivors to the visitor (which is the reaction you'd give to an acquaintance or someone that you know, but not personally) I bet that the surprise guest is not a family member.

I agree with Bungler that this is an IC. It's being plugged as "the ultimate IC"...which with the complexity of what we've been shown would fit that description. While I had doubts before, as it seems a bit physical which doesn't mesh with the idea that the ICs in S1 become less physical, it is the only thing that really makes sense to me.

Originally I had thought that the RC would be a guess your weight thing...thus the mirror and the 'shock' when they see just how they look and how little they weigh. However, the pics of Tina & Lizzie looking from side to side while concentrating don't mesh with that. Also, if that was the challenge, I think that MB would have one of the survivors talking about their weight (indirectly...probably campfire talk) in the promo as a bit of foreshadowing. Now, however, I tend to concur with Bungler that the RC is paired off. It would allow some more luxury items into the camp (in the same vein as the care packages from home did in S1...I'm actually sort of surprised that they didn't get care packages after talking to the family...it seems as if MB likes to have them OD when he gives them stuff, like the auction where they all got sick). If you were looking at a large board and trying to remember where the matches were, you would have a similar look that Tina and Lizzie have in the clips.

As for the guest...I have no clue, lots of ideas...but nothing formed on any sort of knowledge. Steve Irwin would be a good guest for 'paired off' but that would take the limelight away from Jeff Probst. Rudy or Rich would be good moral boosters, but seeing as MB has taken away most references to S1 it doesn't seem very likely. Paul Hogan is convienent, but taht convience bugs me. Mike also seems unlikely as didn't he say somewhere that he & Rich didn't get a real chance to talk and I think Liz would be more excited. Personally, I bet that it is Rudy or Rich. That would be a great reward...dinner with a previous survivor to talk about the experience and strategy. They would also be understanding of the secrecy and not shocked at the production style.

kanabo

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04-25-01, 10:50 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
Another complication on the family member visit idea -- Australia requires a visa for tourists in addition to a passport. MB went through a lot to get the proper documentation for the players without divulging their personal information to the public, even getting cooperation to fly them into the country under assumed names. Would he have been able to get such cooperation to get travel visas for the family members? Would he have arranged visas for a loved one for each survivor at the beginning just in case, since there would not have been enough time to get one on short notice for the lone RC winner?

I was thinking that a family member was the reasonable choice for guest, given the visit from Sean's dad in S1, but looking at the logistics makes me doubt it.

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roswellite 6 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"

04-25-01, 11:58 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: CONSOLIDATED EP13 SPOILER ANALYSIS"
>Australia requires
>a visa for tourists in
>addition to a passport.

>Would
>he have been able to
>get such cooperation to get
>travel visas for the family
>members?

According to the US State Dept. website and the Australian Embassy website, US citizens can travel to Australia on an ETA visa that you can get from any travel agency, within seconds.

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Bebo 21083 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

04-25-01, 12:46 PM (EST)
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16. "Glad it's gotten easier"
It's been awhile since I went to Australia, but it was a pain getting my visa -- glad they've loosened up!
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