Well, as you might have seen this morning, we already released the name of our bootee pick in the bootee voting thread this morning -- yes, once again we'll break with the "public" SB POLL voters results, but this week we'll apparently agree with the majority of the MESSAGE BOARD voters. ...this afternoon we'll detail some more of the reasoning behind the pick.

OK, where to start... if you read our home page after last week's show, you'd know that we've been considering the key for this week's bootee to be whether, depending on if Colby fails to win immunity this week, Tina and Keith will vote to boot Colby. This is a key decision because, again, as we mentioned last week, if Colby goes this week, then Keith would have to win immunity next week to avoid being booted in Week 13 due to previous votes -- and Keith and Tina's Final Two dreams would come crashing down.

Therefore we find it highly unlikely that Keith and Tina, if they realize the scenario that this would create for Week 13, would opt to vote off Colby even if they could.

The question that leaves however is, is it possible that KEITH fails to realize this, but BENEDICT TINA DOES, and Tina decides once more to pull out her trusty knife and this time plant it in Keith's back. ...if she did so she would still assure herself a Final Four finish, and should Keith win immunity in Week 13, a Final Three appearance as well (with Liz losing the tiebreaker versus Tina in the Week 13 due to previous votes cast) ...and even if Keith fails to win immunity, Tina still makes the final Three (along with Rodger and Liz or Rodger) due to Kucha's need to focus on Keith in order to win the tiebreaker. So either way, Tina is in the Final Three -- either with Keith and Rodger or with Keith and Liz or with Rodger and Liz.

...and from there, even if she loses the last immunity challenge, who's to say that the winner doesn't decide that they wish to go to the final jury with Tina? So the question becomes would Tina execute on such a plan if the opportunity presented itself. ...personally, we don't see why not, we've seen little to date that shows she considers her relationship with Keith to be more than one of necessity -- and that necessity might be over, especially if she considers Rodger and Liz to be better "good people."

However, before you get too excited, it's time to consider this week's immunity challenge -- "Jail Break" or whatever is it's name. Clearly this challenge -- in which the survivors are shackled and chained -- would once again seem to significantly favor our resident strongman and the only person with close to a full stomach -- "The Colbster". So given such, we don't see it likely that anyone will be able to beat Colby in the challenge, especially given his growing concern for his tribal standing given his exclusion from the Week 11 Amber voting decision. ...and with Colby once again winning immunity, the potential scenarios described above will have no opportunity to occur, resulting in RODGER's ouster. (Sorry KJ!)

Don't believe it?? ...well, then the fact that the week's previews point to a possible Colby ouster should also convince you -- it seems very unlikely Burnett would reveal so much about the "reality" of a week's episode and this would clearly seem to be a red herring.

Re: the reward challenge, yes, it looks like it's a quiz of sorts involving each survivor's loved one, with the prize being a Internet chat of some sort (probably audio/video) with them. Who wins? Well, again, it doesn't have much impact in the bootee voting (everyone is already upset with Colby, winning once more will not change that) but the winner depends on exactly what is the challenge. ...if it involves the survivor's knowledge of their family or the family's knowledge of the survivors, well, then Keith (no wife) and Liz (been away from parent's, unless boyfriend Tim is the family member) would seem to be at a disadvantage versus Rodger (tight family), Tina (tight family) and Colby (Texan, 'nuff said) ...this week, we'll break with our running Liz pick (sorry Liz!) and go with Tina -- she's a middle aged mother with kids, OF COURSE she'd seem most likely to be on top of what's going on with her loved ones (and frankly, it's just too easy to keep picking Colby for these things )

Lastly, though we consider it extremely unlikely (just as last week), we'll name Colby our alternate pick and please the poll votes.

-SB