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"Tina's Strategy (and why she should win)"
Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-13-01, 05:42 PM (EST)
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"Tina's Strategy (and why she should win)" |
Tina will win this game. The one event that could stop her is the following: given a final three scenario of Tina, Keith and ????, if ???? wins that final immunity Tina will be out. So, in other words, she has a 2/3 chance of winning now.How did Tina get here? Well, in order to analyze her strategy, we need to take a few steps back to Episode 9. Ogakor clearly had control of the game at that point, having removed the first two Kuchas - Jeff and Alicia - and commanding a 5-3 advantage. It was at this point that all the power was with Colby. He was promising both duos of Amber/Jerri and Keith/Tina that he would be with them into the final three. While there was no clear signs that Tina knew Colby was a double agent, there were also no guarantees that he would keep his word after another 10 days when the Ogakor stand alone. This is where Tina took control. It is no secret that Ogakor was not a tightly aligned tribe. There WERE cracks in the alliance, and a history of duplicitous behavior. At that point, a final five with these five was shaping up to be a chaotic free for all. In order to take control of the game, Tina made a brilliant move involving the following steps: 1) She chose someone she could beat in a final two to partner with (Keith). 2) She convinced (it didn't take much convincing) Keith that they must take out the competition for Colby's loyalties (Jerri or Amber). 3) They chose Jerri because she was the most offensive of the two. 4) They brought Colby in on the plan to give him the illusion of a team effort - after all Colby had told them it was the three of them to the end. If he had any problem with the plan, he would blow his cover. (Note: I believe her original plan was Nick in E9 and Jerri in E10, but Nick's winning immunity changed the plan). So Jerri was gone. Keith and Tina were a pact. Colby was around for the ride. There was room for error here. If Amber freaked, they could be in trouble. But they must have known Amber better than we did, because of course, Amber did nothing. Now with Jerri gone, they could go back to taking out a Kucha. Nick was the obvious choice, because he had won the last immunity the previous week, and he didn't really want to be there. So he was voted out. Week 11, once again Tina continued the pattern of going back and forth between Kucha and Ogakor (remember, many people suggested Amber use this strategy to sail into the finals, but Amber is still naive and non-strategic. Perhaps that open invitation for Playboy to approach her will teach her a bit about negotiation and strategy. But I digress....). Colby was the target. Again, immunity got in the way, so the only Ogakor left is Amber. She's gone. Now the dynamic is such that only a Liz/Rog/Colby union could keep Tina (w/ Keith) from sailing into the Final 3. This is the same risk that was faced in E10 (will Amber defect?). The reason this won't happen is that Liz and Rog would have to be open to such a union, and they won't be. Tina and Keith have been gracious thus far, allowing them to remain 2 TC's longer than necessary. Tina has laid the butter thick regularly reminding everyone how much she really likes the people that are left in the game. She will most likely take out a Kucha this week - Rodger I suspect. Going into Final Four with Liz AND Rodger is impossible because they will vote for Keith in the following TC because of his votes, Keith would lose, and Tina would be alone with Rog and Liz. She won't let that happen. This woman is shrewd and strategic, she has been calculated every step in the game. As much as Colby could spoil things as an IC threat, she's GOT to take out a Kucha in E12. Now, I said she would win and here's why. She chose Keith as her partner because she knew that several of the people who would be on the jury (Amber, Jerri especially) do not care for him. He is firey and can be offensive, so it is likely he will alienate others (proved true with Nick). As I said in the beginning, if the third (who I suspect will be Liz because she's soooo likeable) wins the final immunity, Tina will be toast. If Tina wins immunity, she waxes Liz. She keeps her odds up by keeping Liz in the mix - because then if Keith wins immunity, he also waxes Liz (IF the third were Colby or Amber the likelihood that a Keith win in immunity would spell the end for Tina, so it is WISE for her to keep Liz around). I underestimated Tina. Now I see her very covert strategy unfolding. It is clear to me she has been the mastermind. She should win a jury vote against Keith for the same reason Rich won - because she played the game the best. That is, after all, what the jury is instructed to vote based on.
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GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-13-01, 06:12 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Tina's Strategy (and why she should win)" |
No argument P2S. Well, except for one proviso:Rodger is just as likeable as Liz I would guess. The difference is that Rodger could be said to pose a lower IC risk. So why not include him in the mix rather than Liz? Yes, keeping Liz around is wise, but it would be WISER for it to be Rodger. Unless you feel that if Keith won the final IC, he'd break ranks with Tina and hedge his bets with Rodger instead? Bottom line: Liz/Rodger interchangeable. Alright, one more thing to ponder. If Tina (with Keith) take out a Kucha next week as you assert, Colby's in the final four. He isn't likely to follow their lead. Indeed, you can see him gunning for Keith, especially if you lend weight to their upcoming spat over rice. He would have to persuade the remaining Kucha though....
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-14-01, 09:14 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Tina's Strategy (and why she should win)" |
>Rodger is just as likeable as Liz I would guess. The >difference is that Rodger could be said to pose a >lower IC risk. So why not include him in the >mix rather than Liz? Yes, keeping Liz around is wise, >but it would be WISER for it to be Rodger. >Unless you feel that if Keith won the final IC, >he'd break ranks with Tina and hedge his bets with >Rodger instead? Bottom line: Liz/Rodger interchangeable. First, remember the "other" Ogas have switched their Kucha votes from Liz 2 weeks ago to Rodger last week. Shakes points out that Liz is exceptionally weak. Rodger beat Tina, Keith and Liz in the reward challenge. He might be seen as a greater threat. But no, I don't think Keith would hedge his bets on beating the old man. >Alright, one more thing to ponder. If Tina (with Keith) take >out a Kucha next week as you assert, Colby's in >the final four. He isn't likely to follow their lead. >Indeed, you can see him gunning for Keith, especially if >you lend weight to their upcoming spat over rice. He >would have to persuade the remaining Kucha though.... Yes, this is the risk. Tina will calculate the odds to be in her favor this way. There is no risk free scenario out there. But the odds are good that Liz will also want to get rid of Colby.
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-13-01, 08:52 PM (EST)
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4. "Thanks P2S....." |
....for giving a detailed account of the logic I used in picking my PTTE (A/R/C/L/K/T). The only thing you forgot is the logic behind Roger going next ep. instead of Lislis. Two things can account for this, one being that the Boston Herald hasn't been wrong yet, so why should they be wrong about that....that must mean that Lislis wins IC next ep. thereby forcing Oga to target Rodger instead.
But, I'll do ya one better....Rodger has surpassed Lislis as the top threat on Kucha....Lislis' body has nothing left...she could barely finish the fire-scale challenge and she couldn't even climp over a log in the rope maze....rodger finsihed way ahead of her in that IC...maybe Oga sees Rodger as more of a physical threat and also more of a mental challenge threat as well. the second esplanation makes more sense than my "lis must win IC" theory, at least from a statistical point. The only thing in your theory I disagree with is the assertion that the Colbster would've gone this week if he didn't win immunity. I don't buy that at all. Now that there are 5 left, you once again run the risk of an oga outcast defection....who would you be more worried about defecting, LAmber or the Colbster...obviously lamber, who has "been bonding with Lislis" for two episodes now. You can counter with the argument that you wouldn't want to bring Coblster into the final 3 because he is an IC threat, but if you lose Lamber to Kucha in the final 5, you would'nt have to worry too much about the final three anyway. Besides, who would you rather go into the final two with, Lamber or Colby? Definitely Colby who was in on Scerri's backstab....lamber is the only Oga assured of Scerri's vote, so bringing her into the final 3 is a big risk, as well as the obvious defection risk of the final 5. With the colbster you lose a little in your chances of winning IC's, but you make it up in the security you get in the political aspect of the game...besides, how many IC's can he win??? they gotta figure that they will eventually get their shot at him. And don't assume that Tina has this thing locked up if she makes the final two against Keith...Keith can still win this thing in the jury as I outlined on a different thread.
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brain 29 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-14-01, 05:39 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Thanks P2S....." |
>And don't assume that Tina has this thing locked up if she >makes the final two against Keith...Keith can still win this >thing in the jury as I outlined on a different thread.I would love to read that Shakes. Where is it? I agree that Keith could pull out of this with a win. I think a strong argument could be made for every jury member making a vote for Keith. Well, maybe except for Nick. But he's a dork so who really cares. Everyone assumes that Jerri would vote for Tina, Amber would blindly follow, and since Alicia spent all that time with Jerri that she would vote the same way. I don't quite see this happening. I think Jerri could conceivably vote for Keith, especially if she views Tina as the main manipulator of her downfall. Or she could view it as a game well played and votes for Tina. The latter is definitely the more probable of the two, but there is a slim chance she could vote for Keith. Amber seemed to have a good relationship with Keith. They were paired off in the RC competition, so you have the competitive teammate thing going on there. Also, having just recently re-watched the first ep, there were a few moments were she and Keith were see together. And they both hugged each other right after Mitchel lit the fire and they won immunity. And who was the first person that Amber hugged after pulling the knife out of her back on Thursday? Keith. You could argue that this one is simply because she was sitting next to him. I really don't know whom Amber would vote for in a final two of Tina and Keith. Alicia has always seemed to be the type that makes up her own mind. I think she'll be fair about judging who receives her vote and it'll go to the person that she feels played the game the best. Of course, best is a subjective term and who really knows what criteria she'll use. Colby has become a wild card. Would he vote for Keith even with the spat that they are going to have? If he perceives Keith as the one that orchestrated his ouster, then I say yes. I don't see Colby as the vindictive type. More importantly, I think he sees himself as being the best player in the game. Period. And he has a big enough ego to think that since he isn't going to win then he'll vote for the person that removed him because they are obviously the better player of the two that remain. It’s the same theory that if your favorite team loses in the post-season then you root for the team that they lost to. Because then you can take pride in knowing that you lost to the eventual champs. Personally, I hate that. I so wanted the Yankees to self-destruct after beating the A’s last October. Oh, well. What can you do? I could see a split in the Rodger/Liz vote for the first time with Rodg going with Keith and Liz voting for Tina. Nick is just a dork and the less said about him..... well, it just keeps in line with his whole survivor experience. Anyway, I think Keith could possibly win it all against Tina. Would he probably win? I wouldn’t want to bet my life on it that is for sure. We shall have to wait and see. ----------------- Doing the same thing everynight since 1993
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kreon 30 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-15-01, 10:58 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Thanks P2S....." |
Your views on a keith/Tina final are interesting. I really think Tina would win by a landslide against keith. You mention that Jerri would see Tina as a manipulator. Think about that for a second. What was Jerri's game plan? The same as Tina's but Tina was better at it! Jerri will easily vote for Tina. She probably is amazed Keith is still in it. Amber will give it to Tina as well. She watched Tina dive into that water as the sun fell and she swam to get the rice while Keith blundered around. She more than likely respects and admires Tina for this act. Nick is an obvious non-Keith vote. His arrogance made nick wanna puke. Colby is all for Tina! I believe the only person he truly trusted up until last weeks TC was Tina. When he gets booted and Keith stays don't think there won't be animosity. After all, Colby saved his ass in that Tie vote against Mitch. Next up is Liz and all I can say is "Girl Power!!" Tina was very honest with her and allowed her and Rodger to go the distance. If Tina would have bailed just once on the vote Liz and Rodger would already be gone! Liz is a Tina vote for sure! Rodger adores Miss Tina and you can tell. They seem to read each others mind and are comfortable with each other. Rodger is also an honest man I do think there were moments when Rodger thought Keith could have done more and not to mention Keith's little cheating moment. Rodger will award Tina. As for Alicia well, once again let's call it, "Girl Power" and hands the vote to Tina!
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brain 29 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-15-01, 04:16 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Thanks P2S....." |
kreon:Those are some good points. Except for the Girl Power reasoning for Alicia. She's smarter than that and if she votes for Tina it won't be because of gender. I really think that Alicia would be the fairest in evaluating the play of the contestants. That is why she would hand it to Tina, not because of their shared gender. The only thing I was trying to do is play Devil's Advocate and say that there is a possibility that Keith could win. There is a scenario that would allow him to walk away with the million in a final against Tina. Last year everyone was saying that there was no possible way that Rich could win against anyone but Sue. I know that I was in that camp. Do I really think that it will happen? No. Tina has played the game far better than anyone else to this point and if I were in the jury I would probably vote for her. But I think that we have to examine all possibilities, even if they are not very probable. If we don't then we are remiss in our duties. But I want people to at least envision a situation that could make Keith the next big winner so that they aren't caught off guard. I will also go on record as saying that in a Keith/Tina final I do think that Jerri's vote would go for Keith. I disagree with your assessment of Jerri's strategy. Her plan was to come in and form an alliance with people that she liked and ride them to the finals. Tina had a more Machiavellian approach. Do what I need to so that I will be in the best position to win. Look at Jerri's character. Other than melting when water is thrown at her, she is loyal to her word. Had she been playing the same game as Tina, she would have booted Mitchel's butt. Instead she stuck to her word. As horrible as we all think she is, she is similar to Rudy in this sense. She gave her word and she will stick by it. I also don't think she will have much respect for Tina's actions. Keith has been pretty straight foreword in all his actions. So, as much as it would pain her to do, I believe that Jerri would vote for Keith. Not so much because she wants him to win, but because she wants Tina to lose more than Keith. She'll be choosing the lessor of two evils. Kind of like voting for president. If it doesn't happen then I'll be the first one back here to say I was wrong. Happy Easter everyone. Brain ----------------- Doing the same thing everynight since 1993
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-15-01, 01:25 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Thanks P2S....." |
>....for giving a detailed account of the logic I used in >picking my PTTE (A/R/C/L/K/T). > You certainly got started with this thinking first, having picked Amber to go. Didn't realize this was your PTTE, but this would be my best guess now that I'm out of the running. As far as the logic behind Rodger going before Liz, I have to say this mostly stems from believing the Boston Herald spoiler. I think that Tina, who's calling the shots, is a little closer to Liz - it's like choosing your daughter over your uncle. There's very little difference between the two in terms of strength, but as you point out, Rog did do quite well in the RC last week, and Liz is running on fumes. Rog and Liz remind me so much of Rudy and Colleen - w/ both being so likeable, it's tough to know who's more dangerous.
>The only thing in your theory I disagree with is the >assertion that the Colbster would've gone this week if he >didn't win immunity. I don't buy that at all. >Now that there are 5 left, you once again >run the risk of an oga outcast defection....who would you >be more worried about defecting, LAmber or the Colbster...obviously lamber, who has "been bonding with >Lislis" for two episodes now. > I had thought Amber would defect. She didn't, so I actually think Amber would be safer than Colby. Amber and Jerri were the most loyal players from Ogakor. I don't agree that Amber is a bigger risk. She already proved she wasn't a risk. Plus, the tone changed when Colby went away for RC. The outside scale shifted from Amber to Colby during the night of hell. Final thought on this: I think Liz and Rog are very comfortable letting Tina call the shots. I think that any defection effort would be met with resistence from these two. Look where Tina's got them after all! And they know it. Besides, who would you rather go into the >final two with, Lamber or Colby? Definitely Colby who >was in on Scerri's backstab....lamber is the only Oga assured >of Scerri's vote, so bringing her into the final 3 >is a big risk, as well as the obvious defection >risk of the final 5. > I agree that Colby would be better at this point - but the argument is a bit irrelevant, because Tina's plan involves Keith and Liz, as outlined above. To play this game, you have to weigh the odds (as Rich Hatch says) and hope that IC doesn't hurt your plan. > >And don't assume that Tina has this thing locked up if >she makes the final two against Keith...Keith can still win >this thing in the jury as I outlined on a different thread. Can't agree here. Keith has neither the "I like the guy" nor the "I respect the guy" votes. Tina wins in both these voting criteria - the two we saw used in S1.
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-15-01, 04:23 PM (EST)
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16. "Don't forget this one..." |
>As far as the logic behind >Rodger going before Liz, I >have to say this mostly >stems from believing the Boston >Herald spoiler. I think >that Tina, who's calling the >shots, is a little closer >to Liz - it's like >choosing your daughter over your >uncle. There's very little >difference between the two in >terms of strength, but as >you point out, Rog did >do quite well in the >RC last week, and Liz >is running on fumes. >Rog and Liz remind me >so much of Rudy and >Colleen - w/ both being >so likeable, it's tough to >know who's more dangerous. Another spoiler to back up Rodger going before Liz: This is Episode 12!!!! After this episode, the rains will go away (according to weather tracker)... Don't forget Rodger's comment to his kids... "What was the Outback like?" "It sure rained a lot."... This is just one more piece of evidence to point to Rodger's dismissal in this episode, at the end of the rainy season.
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bebekid 1621 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"
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04-13-01, 11:59 PM (EST)
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5. "A Speculation about Tina" |
This possible theory came to me a few hours ago. It's just speculation on my part (some might call it far-fetched) but I thought I'd throw it out there in case even part of it comes true.First let me say I think Tina is the best player in the game. She is the mastermind of the Oga alliance. She deserves to win. She wants to win, I am sure, and will not give up or "throw" any challenges. Let's remember something Rich said after he hopped off the immunity idol at the final IC. He said this is a game of odds. This is so true. Immunity is such a wild card in this game. Rich beat the odds (he was at Kelly's mercy twice). The best (or most deserving) player can become a victim of odds because that is the nature of the game. Tina wants to win. But if she sees that the odds are beginning to stack against her, is it possible that she would want who SHE thinks is the most deserving to win instead of her? I've been thinking about how her Christian faith might play into all this. Rodger is a fellow Christian (I believe they are both Baptist?) and Lis is religious (not sure what denomination). I can see Tina asking all the remaining players what they will do with their prize money. What do you think Rodger would say? I think he would say "of course I will tithe on the gross amount of my prize money and give it to my church" (or some other Christian organization). Lis might do the same thing. I don't know this for sure, but I don't see Colby or Keith as particularly religious so I don't think their answer would involve tithing! They have kind of made a deal out of Rodger saying grace before meals and praying for Mike. Tina seemed to embrace this after the merge. Let's not totally discount their common faith as a factor here towards the end. Is it possible that Tina will allign with Rodger and Lis to go to the final 3? That surely doesn't bode well for Tina's winning, but might she think "it's in God's hands now"? I think Tina wants to win, but I think if she forsees that she can't win, she would rather see especially Rodger win or at least place better than her. She can sleep at night knowing that she helped a Christian man win money that he will do some good with. This theory may be totally discounted next week if Rodger or Lis is voted out by Tina and the gang, but it's food for thought in the meantime!
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-15-01, 10:31 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: A Speculation about Tina" |
What's great about this game is that there is a nifty balance between risk and strategy. We will never be able to say that someone has this thing in a bag. I am contending though, that Tina has slightly less than 2/3rd chance of winning - a far higher % than any other player. The 2/3rd is based on a final three w/ Liz and Keith. If, as you mention, Colby wins immunity at Final 4 and brings Liz (or Rodger) in on a vote against Keith, she would still have a good chance of making final 2 - in fact she may be guaranteed it. It depends on the sentiment for the players at that point, but I think that either Colby or Liz, with a final immunity win, would bring Tina with them. However, her chances of winning at that point go down considerably. She probably does not beat Liz, and it could go either way against Colby (it's still too hard to tell what people really think of Colby - or Tina for that matter).
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GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-15-01, 03:41 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: A Speculation about Tina" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-15-01 AT 03:44 PM (EST)(it's >still too hard to tell >what people really think of >Colby - or Tina for >that matter). How true P2S. I've always found Colby and Tina as the two most difficult to peg. Liz you can see winning against anybody in a jury vote, with Rodger being the only possible exception. This is also why, unless she wins IC, Liz can only make it to the final three at best. If Tina and Coby actually make it to the end, it could well be a split decision. For me, the interesting thing is to see which way the Kuchas would go. Alicia for example had very little time to get to know either of them and her choice may come down to impressions passed on by other jury members. I actually think there are many angles to base the final vote on: - Who has played the strategic angle of the game the best. - Who has played the game best as a process of it's actual survival elements(winning ICs etc). - Who has displayed the most drive and self-determination. - Who is the most likeable, the good guy. Then again, there is a possibility that some jury members may simply seek payback for percieved wrongdoings and consequently vote out of spite. In which case it could come down simply to who has been the least offensive. Between Colby and Tina, that's a tough call. I think you're right though - it's hard to see Keith beating anyone. Prima facie, he would be the one you'd want to take into the final two.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-16-01, 11:18 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: A Speculation about Tina" |
The interesting part is how some of the Survivors feelings towards each other have changed since they have seen the show. Before this they didn't know what was being said about them behind their back or even who exactly always voted against them. They had to make their votes for the final winner before they watched the show. So how they voted then could be different than how they feel now when we see them on the talk shows. They may wish they had voted for the opposite person.
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DivaByTheSea 175 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-16-01, 11:42 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Tina's Strategy (and why she should win)" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-16-01 AT 11:42 AM (EST)You know, I really would like for someone like Rodger to win. But I have to agree with you here P2S. I think she's "played the game" the best thus far. (Or at least that's what's been shown to us by MB). And it fits with my PTTE. Although I have Colby going next with a 'good guys' final four. Diva **** Remember, the mighty oak was once just a crazy little nut that held its ground. ****
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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