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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-13-01, 10:40 AM (EST) "IF Tina wins, scenarios that take us to that point" For those of you who are believers in the many sources of Tina winning (my personal reason is for the EZ board person-TapeWatcher-that dissected the first episode and Tina was edited wayyy different than everyone else), let's work our way backwards. If you don't beleive Tina wins and just want to argue about that fact, no need to post a reply here. I'm open to other people winning, but this is my pick and I want to explore this scenario only on this thread. First, current vote totals for remaining Survivors: Tina=0 Colby=5 Keith=4 Rodger=2 Elisabeth=2 Situations that = Tina winning Next episode, let's say Colby goes because he's a huge immunity threat and there is a secret alliance with K/T/R/E (highly probably based on Nick/Colby spoiler). That leaves R&E voting together in the following episode and K&T together. Immunity situation: Tina wins Immunity (not likely I think for no particular reason): K&T vote Elisabeth (speculation based on the fact that Liz has NO enemies on the Jury and Rodger's comments last night may have made some enemies-Liz a bigger threat), R&E vote Keith. Keith goes. If Keith wins immunity (highly probable), R&E vote Tina, K&T vote Liz, Liz goes. If Liz wins immunity, R&L vote Keith, T&K vote Rodger, Keith goes. Rodger wins Immunity, then Keith still goes. So if Colby is voted out next, Keith is going next unless he wins immunity. Next episode, let's say that Rodger goes because he's in line for going based on the ORIGINAL Kucha vote off order. That leaves T&K and C&L. Rodger being voted off would be big, because R&L's votes would either bump Keith to have more votes than Colby or Colby to have a lot more votes, period. Or maybe they throw Tina two just for fun. I would guess that T&K would mislead Kucha to voting for Colby. So that would leave Colby with a lot more votes than Keith. On to the following episode: Colby wins immunity (highly probable), C/K/T vote Liz, and Liz votes for Keith most likely, to just add another vote to his total. Liz goes. Liz wins immunity (highly probably-JP comment that Liz kicks butt), then K&T vote Colby, Colby votes Keith. Colby goes. If Keith or Tina wins immmunity, then Oga votes go to Liz and Liz votes Colby. High probability of Liz going unless she wins immunity. Let's say Liz goes based on being the biggest Kucha threat on next weeks episode. Same scenario as above. High probability on Rodger going unless he wins immunity (which may be highly unlikely). So if Liz goes next, Rodger will most likely follow. Let's say that Keith goes (may be more likely than we think). Colby maybe wins immunity that week, and to save his own butt, approaches Liz and Rodger to vote for Keith. K&T would probably vote for Liz. If Keith is gone, then T&C ally (Tina needs Colby with her to win the final vote). If R/E win Immunity, then they vote for Colby (hope to vote him out based on immunity threat to remaining players) and C&T vote for Liz or Rodger. Colby's sent packing. If Colby wins immunity, obiously R/L will go based on tie vote totals (most likely Liz). If Tina wins Immunity, then Colby goes based on vote totals. I think if Keith goes, Colby will follow. Following likely scenarios to the final 3: K/C next to go......low/medium probability L/R next to go......higher probability (although JP quote) R/L next to go......medium probabilty C/K next to go......higher probability (GGA, Colby Imm. threat) So, using the high probabilities..... IF L/R go in that order, then unless Colby wins immunity, he's going and Tina wins against Keith in the final vote. If Colby wins immunity, Tina and Colby vote for Keith, I believe. I think Colby, based on spoiler, spent time at the ranch though, so this has fairly low probability. If R/L go in THAT order, the same scenario likely plays out. If C/K go in that order, then the probability that Tina wins is based on her winning immunity and I just can't buy into her winning over R or L in a final vote. That leaves us with the following likely boot order, based on Tina winning: L/R/C/K/T I'm sure there are many flaws here and there, but this seems to be a pretty likely scenario. The only other reasonable scenario, if you have Tina picked to win is R/L/C/K/T.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: IF Tina wins, scenarios that ta... SurvivinDawg 04-13-01 1    Totally agree, but just clarifying ... weltek 04-13-01 2

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-13-01, 10:47 AM (EST) 1. "RE: IF Tina wins, scenarios that take us to that point" LAST EDITED ON 04-13-01 AT 10:48 AM (EST) With so few players left in the game, the scenario that takes ANYONE to the point of being a winner: Make the Final Three. No, I don't mean "you can't be in the final 1 or 2 without being in the final 3" bit. What I mean is that if you make the Final Three, from that point the Final Immunity will determine almost everything. The winner of that Immunity Challenge gets to pick his/her opponent in the Final Two, where it's up to the Jury vote. This is what I meant on a couple of earlier threads. When I suggested to everyone to get their PTTE votes in before Ep. 11 aired, it was because so few people are left now. When I outlined Amber's potential winning scenario, (which she either did not try or was unable to attain) I suggested her voting Nick and Colby off (of course, Colby won IC, so that was moot) because if she makes the final 5, she can ride one group or the other to get to the final 3. I only post this post-Amber-booting to show the logic that strategizing to make just the Final Three is the strategy to go with. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey   Top

weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-13-01, 11:20 AM (EST) 2. "Totally agree, but just clarifying how that could play out" I totally agree that once you are in the final three, the game is anyones. I think that a C/T/K final 3 scenario is pretty likely and with the spoiler that Colby spent time at the ranch, I'm guessing Keith would be in the final with Tina.   Top

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