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"Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go tonight"
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Casezille 38 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 08:47 AM (EST)
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"Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go tonight"
LAST EDITED ON 04-12-01 AT 08:50 AM (EST)

They don't seem 100% sure, so I'll guess we'll just have to wait and see. Here's the link for ya...

http://www.bostonherald.com/news/inside_track/track04122001.htm


Casezille


sorry for the "lack of sleep" spelling mistake!

I would let the vultures take you and do whatever they want with you

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go... crazy canuck 04-12-01 1
 RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go... Play2Survive 04-12-01 2
   Read idiotcowboys thread, Play2Surv... weltek 04-12-01 3
       RE: Read idiotcowboys thread, Play2... Play2Survive 04-12-01 4
           explanation of why I said R&/E migh... weltek 04-12-01 6
               RE: explanation of why I said R&/E ... Play2Survive 04-12-01 10
                   RE: explanation of why I said R&/E ... MDSkinner 04-12-01 11
                       RE: explanation of why I said R&/E ... Play2Survive 04-12-01 13
                           RE: explanation of why I said R&/E ... MDSkinner 04-12-01 14
                               Elipsiiis picked Amber Play2Survive 04-12-01 15
                                   RE: Elipsiiis picked Amber MDSkinner 04-12-01 16
                   Further Hint of Doom... IceCat 04-12-01 24
                       oh god, not that!!! Play2Survive 04-12-01 26
   RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go... MDSkinner 04-12-01 5
   RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go... idiotcowboy 04-12-01 7
       Amber is my pick too....."rift" com... DivaByTheSea 04-12-01 8
       RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go... SherpaDave 04-12-01 9
       RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go... Play2Survive 04-12-01 12
           RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go... cass12 04-12-01 19
               RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go... GG 04-12-01 20
 RE: Boston Herald picks AMBER to go... Loree 04-12-01 17
   on CBS site weltek 04-12-01 18
 Something strange is happening Play2Survive 04-12-01 21
   RE: Something strange is happening Loree 04-13-01 28
       Amber AyatollahKhomeini 04-13-01 29
 How many spoilers destroyed if.... SurvivinDawg 04-12-01 22
   RE: How many spoilers destroyed if.... Play2Survive 04-12-01 23
       You really want Amber to stay, huh ... MDSkinner 04-12-01 25
           RE: You really want Amber to stay, ... Kokoro 04-13-01 27
               I know you guys really thought Ambe... DivaByTheSea 04-13-01 30
                   RE: I know you guys really thought ... DonkeyWood 04-13-01 31

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crazy canuck 3 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 10:24 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go tonight"
Ooh this changes a few things. Everyone seems so positive Colby is toast tonight but there doesn't seem to be much more than speculation. I always check out what the Herald says but they admit to not being positive. If Amber doesn't ally with the Kucha's to boot Colby or possibly Keith then it makes sense the Ogies clear the way by tossing Amber. None of the Ogies want Rodger or Lizzie gone quickly.
Could be Amber.
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 10:27 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go tonight"
On this prediction I am puzzled. Maybe I am missing something, but an Amber ouster seems impossible to me. Here's why:

1) R&E would much rather have Amber on their side, voting for Colby or Keith and giving them the majority, than vote her off. Amber would clearly prefer this as well.

2) All the talk of her being "conniving" has yet to be realized.

3) Jerri/Amber rift is more likely if Amber stays on (and backstabs Colby perhaps?).

4) Source Code and Aboriginal spoilers.

5) Total mystery over her whereabouts post filming - the ONLY one not to be seen publicly.

6) Jeff Verner said it will be interesting to see her moves in the coming weekS.

7) In E11 everyone needs her (yes including and ESPECIALLY K/C).

8) "That way Amber won't know" talk between K + C - possible foreshadowing of her "finding out" whatever their talking about, and making move to remove one of them.

Now putting together the last two, it is possible that K/T/C see A as a threat to defect and want her gone - but they would have to all convince her they were voting for a Kucha, then vote for her secretly, AND (and this is the big one) Amber would have to be SO DUMB that she does as they say completely missing the opportunity sitting in her lap.

I'm sorry, but I don't now, nor have I ever believed, that Amber is dumb. I don't think she got cast because MB & CO decided they needed "The DOLT" character to spice up the show.

I know there are other reasons I am forgetting that Amber CANNOT go this week. I'm surprised that some very astute contributors here, as well as the Boston Herald, have picked her. Makes me think I'm missing something. Anyone care to support or refute?

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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 10:32 AM (EST)
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3. "Read idiotcowboys thread, Play2Survive"
Idiotcowboy has 6 pretty good reasons that Amber could go tonight. The Colby going thought is really not based on much spoiler info except that he goes back to the ranch and stays, but that could be any time. Rodger makes sense with the Ogies voting off Kuchas, but I'm a bit of a believer that K&T want to keep Liz and Rodger around for at least another round. Amber is an outsider and is disposable. My biggest reason for being skeptical of Amber going is the newly surfaced Varner comment (and some others that Amber COULD be coniving).

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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 10:42 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Read idiotcowboys thread, Play2Survive"
>Idiotcowboy has 6 pretty good reasons
>that Amber could go tonight.

I've always been more of a believer in spoilers "outside the game" then the logic "within the game." There is just way too much of the former pointing to Amber being around to the end.


>Rodger makes sense with the
>Ogies voting off Kuchas, but
>I'm a bit of a
>believer that K&T want to
>keep Liz and Rodger around
>for at least another round.

BUT WHY? Keith and Tina have shown themselves to be playing the game to win - some will argue with a momentary lapse in E9 - and keeping R & E around is not good strategy to win. Amber may be the last chance T or K have to win a Final 2 (except perhaps against each other).


> Amber is an outsider
>and is disposable.

Only Amber can decide that she's disposable - by being foolish enough to vote for someone other than Ketih or Colby.


My biggest reason for being skeptical
>of Amber going is the
>newly surfaced Varner comment (and
>some others that Amber COULD
>be coniving).

Yes, another convincer for me as well.

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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 11:12 AM (EST)
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6. "explanation of why I said R&/E might stay another week"
K&T&C are confident right now. With Keith formerly eluding to R&E being the good guys, I think he is playing with a bit of emotion here. In Keith's eyes at least, this is what I think would make it perfect for him: He doesn't see Elisabeth or Rodger winning any immunity challenges and therefore doesn't see that as being a threat when it gets down to a few of them. So in his mind, why not boot Amber, then Rodger or Elisabeth since K/T/C will still hold the power. Keith's confidence (displayed by him not taking his backpack) and bit of emotion he's playing with will really shape the end of the game IMHO.

If they keep Amber and rid Kuchas, there is a risk of Colby and Amber teaming up on Keith and Tina. Keith may be thinking about that. What is the current Keith & Colby vote? Is it Keith 4, Colby 5? I guess Keith has a slight edge in that, but there are a few more TC's to go where he could rack up votes, so if I were him, I'd be looking beyond that and strategizing for that situation.

Pure speculation though, not based on hard info, so as with any speculation, it should be taken with a grain o' salt! Just wanted to explain why I said this.

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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 12:32 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: explanation of why I said R&/E might stay another week"
Yeah I see some of this, but still can't swallow. While Keith is playing with emotion, I do think he still must have enough sense in him to see that his standing with the jury is shaky, and that Amber is his best bet in a Final 2 scenario.

If K/T/C do hold the power (which they don't, Amber does - but of course, she may not see this as many have speculated), they would have an equally promising road to final three with: Amber/Liz, Amber/Rodger or Liz/Rodger, so why would they not see that Liz and Rog are deadly opponents if they sneak further into finals due to immunity wins. Sure they probably LIKE E and R better, but IMHO we're too far into the game for the players to be making such emotional decisions. The Jerri decision was a long time coming. We're steps away from Final 4 and I don't think all three (C/T/K) would see Amber as a greater threat than R or E.

I feel like Ice Cat the day of E9 urging people to jump off the Jerri bandwagon, perhaps a bad omen for me..... (AIF Ice Cat!)

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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 12:53 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: explanation of why I said R&/E might stay another week"
>>Yeah I see some of this, but still can't swallow. While Keith
>>is playing with emotion, I do think he still must have enough
>>sense in him to see that his standing with the jury is shaky,
>>and that Amber is his best bet in a Final 2 scenario.

Sorry P2S, but I have to disagree with this as well. At this point I think that for any of Keith, Tina or Colby their best bet in the final two is to go against each other. Just my opinion, but it seems to me that they would be better against themselves than against either Kuch member, or against Amber.

>>We're steps away from Final 4 and I don't think all three
>>(C/T/K) would see Amber as a greater threat than R or E.

I think that they would see Liz as a greater threat than Amber when it comes to immunity, but not Rodger, not at all. If Liz is able to win immunity this week then I think that Amber is a likely choice for C/T/K(as long as they stick together) for this reason. If you see Rodger as a greater immunity challenge threat than Amber, please explain. I am not sure I get that at all.

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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 01:05 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: explanation of why I said R&/E might stay another week"
Sorry I wasn't clear. I was simply suggesting that R and E are a greater "overall" threat than Amber - TO TAKE THE MONEY!!! You know you're going to have a fat pile of Kuchas on the jury. You have an athletic (albiet not superstudly) Liz, who has offended no one, and you have Rog (Rudy "everyone loves the old man" factor). Remember Rudy more or less handed immunity to Kelly. None of the final challenges were especially trying physically.

I hope I haven't dug myself a hole here, since I seem to be in the minority. I promise I will pay homage to you all manana if I am wrong, but I still can't buy it. I'm open though - 7 hours and counting ....

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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 01:10 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: explanation of why I said R&/E might stay another week"
I definitely agree with you on that one. If I were K/C'T right now I would definitely not want to be in the final two with either of these two . However, if Liz wins immunity tonight, then Amber is their best choice, since it seems pretty safe to say that Rodger is not likely to win an immunity challenge. If Liz does not win immunity, then she is the best choice for those three, IMO.

I just want to mention that I have not actually voted yet, so I may change my mind here and totally agree with you before the show tonight. But at this point an Amber vote is definitely not out of the realm of possibility.

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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 01:22 PM (EST)
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15. "Elipsiiis picked Amber"
n/m
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 01:46 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Elipsiiis picked Amber"
It is good to see that I am not the only one to see this as a strong possibility.

I am leaning more toward an Amber boot every minute.

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 07:09 PM (EST)
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24. "Further Hint of Doom..."
LAST EDITED ON 04-12-01 AT 07:13 PM (EST)

Play2Survive,

The most damning thing of all is...

That the unlucky IceCat agrees with you this week...

I, too, am convinced that a Kucha will go tonite...

This week I have decided not to plant a sloppy wet one on everyone's butt if I'm wrong... I promised to eat my grey furry IceBoxers instead.

This time I shall just quietly state my piece and not attempt to convince others.

The Oga juggernaut consumes another Kucha soul tonite...

'Nuff said.

IceCat

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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 07:19 PM (EST)
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26. "oh god, not that!!!"
Well, IC, I figured we'd agree eventually - even if we agree on the wrong side of right. I'm really not convinced by any of the arguments presented, so I'm going to stick to my gut. Problem is my gut is still confused - Liz, Rog or Colby. Hmmmmmm.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 10:48 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go tonight"
>>1) R&E would much rather have Amber on their side, voting for
>>Colby or Keith and giving them the majority, than vote her
>>off. Amber would clearly prefer this as well.

You say this, but they voted for her last week. I would have agreed with this statement before I saw them do that last week. If I were Amber I would not side with the two that voted against me previously.

>>2) All the talk of her being "conniving" has yet to be
>>realized.

It is possible that she attempts to do that this week. All the talk of conniving does not mean that it actually worked.

>>3) Jerri/Amber rift is more likely if Amber stays on (and
>>backstabs Colby perhaps?).

Seems more likely, I will agree. But you never really know. They may see each other at the ranch(real life) and hate each other.

>>4) Source Code and Aboriginal spoilers.

I am not sold on the Source Code spoiler yet. It stinks of Gervase X to me, but we will see soon. As for Aboriginal spoiler, it is difficult to decipher. I have seen people argue that they can see all of the remaining contestants in the picture. I am not sure it means anything yet.

>>5) Total mystery over her whereabouts post filming - the ONLY
>>one not to be seen publicly.

Does this make her a millionaire? I don't think so, but I could be wrong here. Maybe she does not like all the press, or maybe MB is worried she will spill the beans or something, but this does not necessitate that she sticks around.

>>6) Jeff Verner said it will be interesting to see her moves in
>>the coming weekS.

After his Alicia screw up I will no longer believe anything he says. I believe Ayak said something about MB feeding Jeff with things to say, and I think that may be true. This may be a clue that she does leave soon, in fact.

>>7) In E11 everyone needs her (yes including and ESPECIALLY
>>K/C).

Not true. At this point E/R are the only ones that need her, and she voted for them last week. At this point, if she is voted off by K/T/C then they are basically as good as in the final three, and two of them in the final two. To me, it is to their advantage to get rid of her.

>>8) "That way Amber won't know" talk between K + C - possible
>>foreshadowing of her "finding out" whatever their talking
>>about, and making move to remove one of them.

This leads me to believe that she is not part of their team and is more of a threat to them if she is still around.

I have not voted yet, but I promise that she is right there on my list of possibilities for now. I am waiting around a while to see if we get any new info from anywhere, but she seems like a very real posibility right now. There is just as much to say that she goes, as there is to say that she stays. I would not count it out at this point, put it that way.

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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 12:06 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go tonight"
P2S-

I have great respect for your thinking... and you may be right... but once again I totally disagree with you're analysis point-for-point... (damn this reminds me of the Jerri thing... and I really screwed that one up...)

> 1) R&E would much rather have Amber on their side, voting for
> Colby or Keith and giving them the majority, than vote her off.
> Amber would clearly prefer this as well.

True enough, but do they see this? Nick appeared to indicate that they didn't, primarily because they didn't like her... Could they see this between now and say 8PM tonight... maybe... could they act upon it given the flood and the likelihood Ambers off for a horsey ride?...

> 2) All the talk of her being "conniving" has yet to be realized.

Who said she was conniving... if I remember it was MB... I have nothing else to add here...

> 3) Jerri/Amber rift is more likely if Amber stays on (and backstabs
> Colby perhaps?).

I TOTOALLY disagree! If there's a rift it comes AWAY from the game.

> 4) Source Code and Aboriginal spoilers.

Discussed in the other thread... obviously you don't agree... but it doesn't make the analysis flawed.

> 5) Total mystery over her whereabouts post filming - the ONLY
> one not to be seen publicly.

Maybe she doesn't like crowds... she is from a fairly small town and it must be something of a shock to wake up one morning and be a rock star!... and she has been at events... just small ones like church bazaars and the like... check the hometown papers she's seen a lot around that area!

> 6) Jeff Verner said it will be interesting to see her moves in
> the coming weekS.

Varner was at a Pittsburgh event where there is a strong pro-Amber following... it might have been a slip, but it could just as well be an attempt to play to the crowd!

> 7) In E11 everyone needs her (yes including and ESPECIALLY K/C).

Not true... L/R NEED her (barring a GGA)... K/C only need her to THINK they are all still together... same as it was with Jerri!

> 8) "That way Amber won't know" talk between K + C - possible
> foreshadowing of her "finding out" whatever their talking about,
> and making move to remove one of them.

It could be just as likely that it's foreshadowing her removal...


Finally, on the other comment:

> I've always been more of a believer in spoilers "outside the game"
> then the logic "within the game." There is just way too much of the
> former pointing to Amber being around to the end.

I think you have to have BOTH... that was my problem with the Jerri thing... I discounted too much the "outside the game" stuff... my Amber theory may be just as faulty... but I tried to learn from my error there.

-ICB

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DivaByTheSea 175 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 12:19 PM (EST)
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8. "Amber is my pick too....."rift" comes post-boot"
Amber is my pick to go tonight too. Here's my thinking on this one--

1.) K/T/C have the majority that they need. They must always be more than 1 up on the kuchas in order to kill their own. Hence the 5 - 3 majority, sending Jerri on her way. It was safe to let her go. Then they go to 4-3. This means they must get rid of Nick in order to keep that majority. Now they are 4 - 2. They can get rid of Amber, who none of them really seem to GENUINELY like. Save for the motherly thing going on with Tina...but come on, it's Tina, she shot her consolation marylyn outta the sky.

2.) All remnants (sp) of Jerri will be gone. Look at Amber, she just oozes Jerri left-overs

3.) She's an outsider now. E and R showed their hand by voting for her. They recognize the displacement of Amber. So do the others, but I refer to point 1. in that the ogas had to keep the majority.

4.) The alleged "rift" -- picture this -- Amber gets booted and goes back to the ranch with Alicia, Jerri, and Nick all waiting there. Alicia and Jerri are close in age and more realistically friendship-oriented. Amber doesn't fit in. She's still fresh from sorority centered college (she graduated the May before they taped the show) and doesn't know how to play adult-female-with-mind-of-her-own. She hangs out with Nick some. But Jerri turns bitchy towards Amber b/c quite frankly, the 22 year old doesn't have the maturity to play in a 30 year old's world.

5.) More "rift" -- during SOME of the interactions with Jerri, Amber spills the beans on how everone really felt about Jer. Including Colby. Jerri has some bile to chew on, hence the revenge is sweet deal with her.

6.) K & T -- they want the good guys to win this. You can tell that ultimately, they want the 'right' people to win. They all saw Rich win last time and they want the good guys to go into the final four. Any of the 5 left after Amber would be relatively pleasing to the good guys alliance.

7.) Colby really doesn't like Amber either.

And that's the Diva's take on Amber going tonight.

Please excuse any spelling errors...I have a cold and am on codine cough medicine, which makes me a tad dopey.

diva


**** Remember, the mighty oak was once just a crazy little nut that held its ground. ****

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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 12:22 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go tonight"
>> 4) Source Code and Aboriginal spoilers.
>
>Discussed in the other thread... obviously
>you don't agree... but it
>doesn't make the analysis flawed.
>
And, if I recall correctly, wasn't this the week when the source code "spoiler" was proven false last season?
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 12:55 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go tonight"
ICB - the respect is mutual. I've been impressed with your theories and the details to support them.

True enough, but do they see
>this? Nick appeared to indicate
>that they didn't, primarily because
>they didn't like her... Could
>they see this between now
>and say 8PM tonight... maybe...
>could they act upon it
>given the flood and the
>likelihood Ambers off for a
>horsey ride?...


Liz and Amber have been spending time together and previews suggest this will continue tonight. Do we think they get in a cat fight over the value of foundation, or are they talking about the game? Will Liz explain her last vote? Will they reach some sort of agreement, since both are in dire need of help? (And I don't believe that Amber is oblivious to the fact that she's in trouble).


>> 2) All the talk of her being "conniving" has yet to be realized.
>
>Who said she was conniving... if
>I remember it was MB...
>I have nothing else to
>add here...


I contend that if someone (not me) were to reference all of MB's hints and tally which were true and which were lies, we would see that he actually gives us the truth more often than not. His proclivity to decieve (in such "overt" ways) is over-rated.


>> 3) Jerri/Amber rift is more likely if Amber stays on (and backstabs
>> Colby perhaps?).
>
>I TOTOALLY disagree! If there's
>a rift it comes AWAY
>from the game.

Ok, maybe, but I don't see why. Jerri has clearly held grudges about how people played the game - why couldn't Amber be lumped into the mix?


>> 6) Jeff Verner said it will be interesting to see her moves in
>> the coming weekS.
>
>Varner was at a Pittsburgh event
>where there is a strong
>pro-Amber following... it might have
>been a slip, but it
>could just as well be
>an attempt to play to
>the crowd!

Varner historically is the king of slips, not a big tease.

>I think you have to have
>BOTH... that was my problem
>with the Jerri thing... I
>discounted too much the "outside
>the game" stuff... my Amber
>theory may be just as
>faulty... but I tried to
>learn from my error there.
>

Yeah, you had good backing in your post - especially point 6, which really got me thinking. I still haven't voted, because I'm waiting for some more evidence. I think I will watch the tape of last week and see if anything new hits me. (What did I do with my time before Survivor?)

P2S


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cass12 16 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 05:37 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go tonight"
I'm with you P2S. I do not see how Amber would go tonight unless she really is as dumb as everyone thinks. The main reasons are ones you have already pointed out.

1) Liz and Rodger need her right now. They will be picked off right away if they don't take advantage of her vote. I think the argument that they voted for her last week is not reason enough to think they wouldn't side with her. A/L have been awfully chummy...and as I pointed out in a previous thread there was even a shot of them high fiving while they were walking alone in the woods. They probably gave her votes, either as a cover-up to this newly formed alliance or just to give her votes to protect themselves in a later vote.

2) I still think the clip of K/C saying "That way Amber won't know..." was a very deliberate editing job by MB. I think it was meant as a possible prelude to Amber's revenge on a tribe she can no longer trust. I don't think that would have been put in as a hint to her getting voted off...it is too obvious.

3) Liz has already expressed that "if she were Amber she would be worried too" Obviously Liz and Amber have been talking and have realized that Amber could be the next target. And they probably realized that it would be this week, not last because another Kucha needed to go first. The only logical choice for either of them at this point is to align.


I know a lot of this has been said, and I will be the first to admit if I am off in left field. Going into tonight's episode, I think I need to shoot for Colby, not Amber.

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GG 142 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 05:59 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Bostoh Herald picks AMBER to go tonight"
I agree with P2S as well.

A few extra points to ponder:

- for Keith, Colby, Tina to vote off Amber would still give them control 3-2, but to what end? Assuming that one of those three would win the next IC is playing the odds a little too finely. I mean what if Rodger or Liz triumph instead? Yes, one of those two could still go in such an eventuality but it still leaves the possibility of the sole Kucha winning the IC after that.

- It's been said before, but worth reiterating again: by the time we reach final five/four, the consideration of who to drag into the last two outweighs the value of an alliance. Remember all it takes is for the intended bootee to win IC and everything goes to pot. The less that remain, the greater the likelihood it could happen. So far no one has considered Amber a serious threat. And she seems to be someone who can be readily influenced. Strategically, there is no obvious benefit in voting her off before the likes of Liz or Colby.

- The arguement that K/C/T would look to get rid of Amber because of the possibility she could defect is redundant. They can't prevent that from happening now any more then they could the week before. She joins with ROdger/Liz and it's 3 versus 3. Colby or Keith would therefore be voted off. End of the Ogathree alliance.

- Nobody has given a reason as to why getting rid of Amber makes more strategic sense than going for Rodger or Liz. If it really is K/C/T's intention to make it together to the final three, wouldn't you want to remove the Kucha's first? Why the rush for Amber? Ogathree would still be in a strong position to oust her having disposed of either Rodger or Liz first.

- Also, the power IS with Amber. Even if she hasn't figured that out for herself, the others will have done it for her. I'm playing a hunch that Rodger and Liz will do a better job of appealing to her sense of logic. Admit that they did vote for her last time but only because Colby won IC and that they didn't want to want to set off any alarm bells in Keith and Tina's mind. Then argue that Ogathree have already made it clear she is an outsider by virtue of keeping her out of the dark with Jerri. Follow that with the arguement that if they enforce a bloc vote, in theory, she is a guaranteed a final 3 place, whereas with Ogakor it would only be fourth at best.

The latter is what will clinch it I think. What Rodger/Liz might add to that is if either of them wins the IC when they're down to five, then K/C/T will have to turn to her as the bootee.

- Amber, if nothing else, knows she's a target; be it from Rodger and Liz who voted for her last week or Ogathree who have shown that they're not averse to turning against their own. Let's assume she feels vulnerable from both sides. But the interesting thing is that even if Rodger and Liz gun for her again, their two votes alone would not be enough too see her gone. So Amber must arrive at the conclusion that only K/C/T would be able to push her out of the tribe. Survival therefore compels her to vote with Kucha. She MAY feel loyal to Ogakor but I don't believe that she's so naive as not to see that defecting gives her a modicum of protection in this case. With Ogakor, she would have none.

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 01:56 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Boston Herald picks AMBER to go tonight"
I really have a hard time agreeing with the Boston Herald this time. I keep thinking that Alicia and Jerri (who were not friendly while in the game) became friends because they were the only females at the ranch for awhile. It caused them to bond. I think if Amber was booted this soon she would have resumed her friendship with Jerri. Alicia would then have been friendly with both. But we never hear Alicia mention Amber. I also don't think Liz is booted yet. I think it will be another male. Rodger or Colby. I am leaning towards Colby because of his friendship with Nick. But I don't think a female goes this week.
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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 02:25 PM (EST)
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18. "on CBS site"
Amber only had her two studio pictures when I checked at lunch. Everyone else had a bunch. Not that it's any sort of proof, just supporting documents.
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 06:42 PM (EST)
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21. "Something strange is happening"
Of course you all know I don't think the evidence points to Amber getting booted when the show airs in, oh God, 84 minutes. So I've read all of the expert picks - SB, Elipsiiis, Boston Herald - and relative to previous weeks, I have to say that the reasoning is pretty lame (with all due respect). BH even said they don't know why they're picking Amber, they just are. This leads me to believe that:

A) There's been a leak. These folks all know Amber is the bootee, but they don't know why. So they've cleverly written their best, however weak, scenarios that lead to her removal.

-OR-

B) MB and Co. have FREAKED because we've known too much and have successful penetrated the leak machine to give us a load of bull that somehow everyone is buying.

Any thoughts?

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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04-13-01, 01:10 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Something strange is happening"
It sure does look like there is a leak now. Doesn't it? They said Amber but didn't seem to know why. In fact I am still a little confused about why they booted Amber. I guess it was by elimination. They couldn't vote Colby because he had immunity. The rest all like each other and didn't want to vote each other out.

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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04-13-01, 01:37 PM (EST)
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29. "Amber"
LAST EDITED ON 04-13-01 AT 01:39 PM (EST)

There aren't many real spoilers out there this year. But one thing we did know is that Jerri said she wished that she had gotten to know Rodger better, and Rodger said he'd only had one conversation with Jerri since getting back. The game logic pointed to Rodger as the next Ogakor victim (not even Lis would really want to face Rodger in the final) ... but wouldn't Jerri have known him pretty well if he got booted now, considering that all it does is rain for two more days? So who was the most logical target of the people left? Colby -- the LEADER of the Ogakor bloc? Or Amber -- the OUTCAST of the Ogakor bloc, per Keith?

If there had not been an "uncle cameraman" spoiler, I'll bet no more than a handful of people would have picked Colby to get booted before seeing E11.

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 06:48 PM (EST)
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22. "How many spoilers destroyed if...."
... Amber goes tonight? Let's see:

1) All those pictures in the opening credits.... (some of y'all are gonna be REAL ticked about that!

2) All-Female Finale

3) Source Code Theory (my personal favorite)

4) Amber so low under the radar post-show.

5) Jerri/Amber relationship (or lack of it) spoilers.

6) Add yours here...

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

Save the drama for yer mama, and WAAAATCH!

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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 07:00 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: How many spoilers destroyed if...."
Dawg, THANK YOU! We seem to think a lot alike and I'm sitting here wondering why none of our respected experts are addressing their quick willingness to abandon these spoilers.

I'll add a couple more from my pal Jeff V:

7) Jeff only had a few days with her.

8) He recently (yesterday I believe) told people in Pittsburgh that a) he knows what happened, and b) Amber will be interesting to watch in the coming WEEKS.

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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-01, 07:12 PM (EST)
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25. "You really want Amber to stay, huh P2S......"
I have answered all of the reasons why I think that there is as much evidence to say that she could go as much as there is for her to stay so I won't do that again. I think you and Dawg both have good points, but I just think that there is as much evidence to say the opposite. At this point we really do not have a lot of evidence to go one way or the other, and since it is speculation that we are basing our picks on, you must admit that it is as easy to come up with a reason for her to leave tonight as there is for her to stay.
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
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04-13-01, 02:08 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: You really want Amber to stay, huh P2S......"
Heeeyyy P2S and Dawg....Join GAWD! LoL right now the only member is Erist and he's gettin' lonely during the meetings =)

Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire.


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DivaByTheSea 175 desperate attention whore postings
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04-13-01, 05:10 PM (EST)
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30. "I know you guys really thought Amber would stay...but (I was right) :-)"
When I really sat and thought about it, Amber really was the most logical as the next to go.....everyone that I said that to at work (and even my husband) thought I was wrong. I was right. Anyway, I think that next week's bootee is a little more hard to pick b/c it could any way....get rid of Colby, get rid of a kucha, or get rid of Keith (as the previews would like for us to think). Jeff V. must have been refering to the final TC when he said that Amber gets interesting in the next couple of weeks or just pulling our leg. Who knows. I think last night's bootee just made things get even more interesting for the end. It's not as obvious as last SI.

**** Remember, the mighty oak was once just a crazy little nut that held its ground. ****

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DonkeyWood 17 desperate attention whore postings
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04-13-01, 08:15 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: I know you guys really thought Amber would stay...but (I was right) :-)"
When the Boston Herald speaks I listen.

They have proven time and time again that they are not in the business of making predictions or speculation, rather they serve us the straight-up spolier. They obviously have someone close to the game who is talking to them.

Of course this time they hedged a bit....but still.

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