I've been working myself this direction for some time, but now think I can prove that Amber will go down this week. Keep in mind I made a similar list for why I though Keith would go down this week instead (last week for PTTE), and that Jerri couldn't possibly go down in ep9... but this one's better... much better... much, much... bet... m..

Reason #1
Amber's no longer necessary to the Ogre alliance. Colby and Tina have been real nice to keep her in line... while Keith has been... shall we say unsympathetic. We all know it only takes one of the three to push the alliance one way or another. If Keith wants her gone, or Colby wants her gone, or Tina wants her gone... they probably go in her direction this week. The supporting evidence to this is the C/K fireside chat at the end of ep10 where they were talking about doing something and Amber not knowing about it. It went by real quick, and a lot of people probably missed it the first time around... I know I did, but it is there check it out for yourself if you want. I initially didn't see the logic in this, but have recently come around to believing it is actually not a bad strategy for ANY of the C/T/K alliance. Why Keith... well she's dangerous to him because of her closeness to Colby and Tina... ignore the fact that she's the one person he could possibly beat in the final 2... this does him no good if he's not there. Why Tina... well they've never been all that close, and it certainly isn't personal... but I could see her grouping Amber along with the people she doesn't really want to spend anymore time with... certainly Amber's behind Rodger and Lis in that category. Finally why Colby... well this is the one that I initially questioned... it seemed he would be better off targeting Keith with a new A/C/T alliance or something... that way he would be in a better position toward the end... but as I've thought more about this I have decided it might be his best chance to ensure that the K/T/C alliance holds together... after all if they go in with four Ogre's in the final 4 the target probably is the strongest one and that would mean either he or Keith... so the advantage of having Amber on his side probably is outweighed by the risk he would have, taking her into the final four with him. Three, it seems, is the magic number towards the end!

Reason #2
Amber's not capable of switching sides. Okay, so you probably bought into #1 okay, but you're saying why won't she switch sides and take control herself? First off lets look at some of Nick's comments, when Rich Hatch asked him why he didn't try and ally with Colby in one of his post game interviews... what he said was "You know I look back at that and we could have pulled maybe even Amber because it seemed like Amber was isolated. But I didn't really like Amber during the game, we weren't friends, I like her now and so if you're not getting along with somebody you're not going to just say, 'Hey come play with us.'". Let's look at this carefully when he's speaking, he's speaking for himself, but he also says "we" meaning he's also speaking for his fellow kucha's as well. He also discusses how they all got together to discuss strategy, but on the way to TC he switch to Keith because of the backpack thing. Now it is possible that Lis and Amber bond and they form some type of alliance, but if we are to believe Nick (and we have no reason not to) the kucha had not worked Amber too much as of the end of ep10, and since ep11 looks pretty busy with other events there doesn't appear to be too much time for the Amber/Lis Alliance to take hold. Also, nothing has been shown in Amber's personality (assuming she has one) that would lead us to believe she is anything but a follower. Followers don't leave their masters unless their masters force them to... I personally think Colby and Tina are doing enough to offset Keith's obnoxiousness, and Amber will stick with her "friends" who are busy sharpening their knives... for her.

Reason #3
Amber's spoiler's are some of the weaker ones. Let's look at the Amber spoilers of note... aboriginal photo, and Lis/Amber html (Lis/Amber alliance on web site). First off, the aboriginal photo... I know a lot of people posting here see Keith and Amber fairly clearly, and at times have seen Colby, Jerri, Lis, Nick, Michael, and others. I've always looked at these as a combo of all of the players, the female photo a composite of all the female contestants, and the male a composite of all of the male contestants. At the very least someone could point out it's a combo of the final 6-9 contestants (ie 6, post flood victims... 9, finalist plus the jury... 7, the jury). Point being, Amber leaving now doesn't completely kill its value... just reduces its likelihood of showing the final 2. Secondly, the html thing... after Gervase X we've all been a little leery of website "errors"... my main problem with them is not that their out-and-out hoaxes, but that MB would never intentionally give the information to someone who didn't have to know. Now he’s definitely willing to intentionally mislead someone, but giving them advance knowledge seems a stretch... especially when it's been widely reported some of the high level assistants and editors don't even know the final outcome! The web designer would definitely fit that category especially after the Gervase X hoopla from last season. This is equally true concerning the Lis/Amber alliance comments mysteriously appended to the Nick interview thing.

Reason #4
Amber appears to be headed to an RC win. Amber and Colby are definitely omitted from the video that is speculated to be of everyone returning to camp after the flood. Some have speculated that Rodger wins because of the "where's the rice?" comment", but he is shown with Lis in what looks to be the same timeframe as the Tina/Keith shot... so it's probably either Colby or Amber that wins, and are consequently not around to help with the salvage. So if Colby won the RC where is Amber in the pics? She could be just out of site of either one... but surely she would be real close to the others. If Amber won though it is conceivable that Colby is not in the pics because he's already at the river edge trying to find a way to cross and save anything possible. That's just a guess of course, but we do have the heroic comments, and Colby has a way of rising to the challenge when needed... so if he's there I'd bet he's in the thick of it. Secondly, the day/night shots taken from the web preview... why change the day shots into night shots? The only reason I can think is to disguise the identity of the river crosser. If it's Keith or Rodger why would you need to do this? You've already established them as being there upon return of the RC... the only reason I can think is because it's not one of them... but Colby instead. (for more on this check icecat's excellent analysis: http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1195.shtml#7) Couple this with the Colby/Amber hug shot that could be upon return from the RC and you've got a pretty solid guess that Amber wins it... and if so, it likely costs her.

Reason #5
Amber's removal would not be a "shock" to most. Lack of the word's "shocking", "surprise", "twist", or any other overly dramatic adjective in the teaser has really been bothering me. I personally think any of those would apply if Amber switched sides, a GGA suddenly appeared out of nowhere, or ANY of the "controlling" Ogre alliance was booted (ie K/C/T)... at the very least it would merit a little tease of some sorts... wouldn't it? We have already seen from earlier in S2 the teasers have always given us some clues to alliance shifting... Mitchell's ousting, Michael's accident, and Jerri's removal have ALL merited a nifty little adjective or two. Where are the adjectives this week? The teasers talk about heroic feats and horrific floods... and not much else. This certainly makes me look at Lis and Rodger as likely evictee's this week... but I also think Amber is just as good. Who would miss her if she left? Does anyone know she's even been playing the game? She's gotten a lot more face time in the last couple of weeks, but that didn't help Nick now did it.

Reason #6
Amber does have some spoiler to say she doesn't last much longer. Back to Nick... he said he didn't like her much during the game, but has later gotten to know her and likes her now. Where did he get to know her? If she makes the final 2-3 she won't have much time at the ranch... and unlike Colby who seemed to be bonding a little with Nick before his departure (high five-ing after IC challenge, beach talk after the poll IC, etc.)... Amber didn't appear to have much contact with him. Next, I would suggest that the Jerri falling out is just as likely a sign she goes soon as anything Nick said. During the contest Jerri and Amber were buddies. Now they appear to be somewhat distant. This could mean Amber wins (although I'm not sure there is a scenario in which that works), it could mean they don't have all that much in common outside of the game, or it could mean they have some sort of falling out. I believe its likely one of the later, if not both... so since we were shown how well they related during the game... when did they determine not to be buddies anymore? Could it be at the ranch where the evil one already has made a new friend... could this have caused the fallout of sorts with the Beaver, PA prom queen? Finally, if Colby winds up stabbing her in the back... and her only other “real” friend... has a better one now... no wonder she wants nothing to do with anyone she met Outback!

It's possible, it's logical, it fits in ok with the spoilers... plus it's the best I've got so far... any flaws in the logic? comments?

-ICB