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"Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
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FFantasyFX 1028 desperate attention whore postings
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02-17-06, 11:35 PM (EST)
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"Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
Well, I've been out of action on these boards for a while thanks to "real" life, but I thought I would stop by and post after tonight's results show. I must say that I've been thoroughly impressed with Dancing with the Stars maturation this season - although the producers haven't solved all the problems that plagued the show last season, they've corrected a lot more than I thought they would be able to. A really enjoyable season overall, I must say. While I haven't been posting on the boards, I have been keeping close tabs on the show, especially the voting process, so I thought I would offer some analysis and predictions for next week for those interested.

I wasn't terribly surprised by tonight's results - Jerry staying (indeed, not even being in the bottom two) and Lisa leaving. After casting my obligatory votes each week, I've sometimes called the other lines to see how busy they were. Indeed, I did a quasi-scientific test after Episode 5 aired - I called each line with automatic redial for five minutes to see how often I could get through. Based on that small sample, it seemed to me that Lisa and Jerry were receiving the most votes (got through zero to one times); George, Tia, and Drew were receiving a moderate amount of votes (got through three to six times); while Stacy was receiving an anemic amount of votes (got through close to twenty times). I thought that maybe Stacy's frontrunner status was causing her votes to be depressed, but that really didn't seem to be holding Drew's fanbase back. So, I concluded that if she made the finals, Stacy would in all likelihood not win.

Indeed, Stacy needs to send Drew some flowers and a thank you note after tonight. Had Drew not beaten Lisa and come in second place in the audience vote, Stacy would be the one left out of the finale. Tonight's results confirmed some of my earlier suspicions, but let's have some fun with numbers to see what might happen in the finale.

First, Jerry had to have come in first place in the audience vote - it was the only way he could escape the bottom two. After the judges' votes, each contestant had the following scores:

Stacy - 1
Drew - 1
Lisa - 3
Jerry - 4

Remember, the scores are not weighted. All couples are ranked, and then receive their ranking as a score. The same is true for the audience vote.

Jerry would have to come in first place in the audience vote to score a one, getting him five points overall. That meant that if either Stacy & Drew got the lowest possible audience vote score (a 4), they would be tied with Jerry. Jerry would win the tie-break, since the audience vote "is" the tie-breaker. Since Jerry wasn't in the bottom two and Stacy was, that means Jerry must have gotten first place and Stacy last place:

Stacy - 1 + 4 = 5b
Drew - 1 + 2/3 = 3/4
Lisa - 3 + 2/3 = 5/6
Jerry - 4 + 1 = 5a

That means that Lisa either came in second or third place in the audience votes. Coming in third place gives her a six, which means automatic elimination for Lisa. Could she have come in second? Not possible. That would have given her a five, tied with Jerry and Stacy. In this triple tie, the person with the lowest audience vote ranking goes home, which means that Stacy would have been ejected tonight. So, the final leaderboard looks like this:


Stacy - 1 + 4 = 5b
Drew - 1 + 2 = 3
Lisa - 3 + 3 = 6
Jerry - 4 + 1 = 5a

What does this mean for the finale? Well, if I were an oddsmaker, I would currently give Drew a 60% shot of winning, Jerry a 30% shot, and Stacy a 10% shot. Let's work backwards for the finale, starting with the audience vote.

From what I've observed, Stacy's been doing terrible with the audience vote all season. Had she not been consistently ranked at the top by the judges, she would have been eliminated quite a while ago. While the heightened scrutiny of the finale may shift voting patterns, I think it would be safe to pencil her in to last place again. It would take a tsunami of support to make her leapfrog Jerry or Drew, and I just don't see it. Drew and Jerry may be close in public support, so Drew may be able to steal 1st place in the audience vote next week. I think that would be an automatic KO by Drew, giving him the championship outright. But, for the sake of argument, let's say that Jerry takes the #1 spot again.

Jerry - 1
Drew - 2
Stacy - 3

Given how the competition has gone so far, it would take a major gaffe by Drew or Stacy for Jerry to get out of the judges' basement in my opinion. So, pencil him in for last place, although I concede that moving up is not entirely out of the question. The main question for me is how Stacy and Drew end up ranked. If Stacy receives the higher score from the judges, Jerry wins. If Drew ties Stacy or receives the higher score, then he wins. Both scenarios:

Drew Wins Judges' Vote:
Jerry - 1 + 3 = 4 Runner-Up
Drew - 2 + 1 = 3 Winner
Stacy - 3 + 2 = 5 Third Place

Stacy Wins Judges' Vote:
Jerry - 1 + 3 = 4a Winner
Drew - 2 + 2 = 4b Runner-Up
Stacy - 3 + 1 = 4c Third Place

Jerry, of course, wins due to the fact that he got the greatest amount of votes from the audience. I must say I appreciate the fact that three couples will be dancing in the finale - it acutally makes the judges' vote consquential, unlike last season.

So, at the moment, I'm guessing Drew Lachey will be the winner of the second Dancing with the Stars tournament, with Jerry Rice having a decent chance at the upset, and with poor Stacy most likely relegated to third no matter what she does. Sorry for the overlong post, but I find the scoring system pretty fascinating. I believe Fishercat, on another thread, opined that it would be a much better system if the amounts were weighted, and I tend to agree. But the addition of more couples at the outset of the show, as well as the inclusion of three teams in the finale, have corrected some of the problems that really grated on me last season.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... Fishercat 02-17-06 1
 RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... Sahara 02-18-06 2
   RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... FFantasyFX 02-18-06 3
       RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... Sahara 02-18-06 9
 RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... mtopaz 02-18-06 4
   RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... bookwomanblue 02-18-06 5
       RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... prosecutor 02-18-06 6
           RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... mtopaz 02-18-06 7
       RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... Sahara 02-18-06 8
       RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... DooWahDitty 02-18-06 10
 RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... CattyChat 02-18-06 11
   RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... bookwomanblue 02-18-06 12
       RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... DooWahDitty 02-18-06 13
   RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... FFantasyFX 02-18-06 14
       RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... DooWahDitty 02-18-06 15
           RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Fin... prosecutor 02-19-06 16
 Ok, I'm going to be the one to say ... alwaysintruble1 02-21-06 17
   RE: Ok, I'm going to be the one to ... DooWahDitty 02-21-06 18
       RE: Ok, I'm going to be the one to ... prosecutor 02-22-06 19
           One Explanation FFantasyFX 02-22-06 20
               RE: One Explanation DooWahDitty 02-22-06 21
                   RE: One Explanation mtopaz 02-22-06 22
                       RE: One Explanation DooWahDitty 02-22-06 23
 95% Probability of Drew Lachey Win FFantasyFX 02-24-06 24
   RE: 95% Probability of Drew Lachey ... prosecutor 02-24-06 25
       RE: 95% Probability of Drew Lachey ... DooWahDitty 02-24-06 26
           RE: 95% Probability of Drew Lachey ... mtopaz 02-24-06 27
               RE: 95% Probability of Drew Lachey ... CattyChat 02-24-06 28

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Fishercat 4168 desperate attention whore postings
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02-17-06, 11:43 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
Very nice analysis, and I will have to retract what I said on another thread about Jerry not having a shot at the Top 2 after this.

And I was the one that suggested a weighted system. If they want, put it out of 60 points, 30 for each group. An average of the mean score of the dancers that week (so if the mean was a 24.5, the mean for votes is a 24.5, if it was a 19 early on, a 19) and then if Jerry got all the votes, give him a 30, if he got the average number, give him 24.5, if he got one-half of average, give him whatever the weight says. Makes a lot of sense.

As I said, great post.

Bob Factoid: The fishercat is the only creature known to have gone completely insane chasing its own tail.

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Sahara 759 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 00:58 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
LAST EDITED ON 02-18-06 AT 01:04 AM (EST)

Very good!

I do have an observation...when Tom announced the first two couples who were staying tonight, he said "in random order", so I do not think we necessarily know who was first or second this time.


AF 2006
Edited because I am tired and don't make sense.

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FFantasyFX 1028 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 01:17 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
LAST EDITED ON 02-18-06 AT 01:24 AM (EST)

You are right about the fact that the couples announced safe throughout the course of the results show are in random order. However, Tom is always pretty clear about the fact that the final two couples left constitute the bottom two, and I mathematically extrapolated from there. If they didn't reveal the bottom two, and just the team eliminated, it would indeed be impossible to figure out the audience rankings. But, unless someone is fudging with the scores, the audiences rankings for this week have to be as I outlined them above, or there would have been a different bottom two and/or eliminee.

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Sahara 759 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 11:43 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
Thanks for clearing that up for me and my mush-brain. That makes sense to me now.


AF 2006

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mtopaz 2167 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 01:39 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
First of all, loved reading your analysis and predictions based on the scoring system. I must admit, I'm more of a "right brain" thicker, and when trying to understand mathematical concepts, I get easily lost. I don't quite get how the ranking for the viewer votes works with the judges ranking. Maybe also because it's late on a Friday, and my brain is tired.

However, there is no doubt that Jerry has a huge fan base, and maybe it's so huge because he appeals to both men and women. The women are swooning over Gentleman Jerry (in addition to being huge football fans). He is definitely a sweetheart.

Stacy is a knockout, and I'm sure she appeals to men. But, as a woman, I must say she's so perfect (in looks, ability, youth, blondness!) that I'm petty enough to hold that slightly against her. As someone else said too, it's not very likely that wrestling fans would be huge fans of this show. I wanted her to go tonight (again, just the pettiness in me).

And I'll confess, I bawled to see Lisa go. How embarrassing that this show can tug at my heart strings, but kudos to the producers for accomplishing that. I definitely appreciate the gracious way they send off those that are leaving.

I hope your odds re Drew winning are on the money.


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bookwomanblue 205 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 07:12 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
You weren't the only one crying, mtopaz! I was heartbroken.
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prosecutor 449 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 09:30 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
great analysis. They did announce in the begining that Jerry Rice won the audience vote last week and they did also point out that the fans have consistently kept him out of the bottom two. Stacey will definitely not win Carrie Ann Inaba doesn't care for her dancing(hee hee)
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mtopaz 2167 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 11:08 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
Stacey will definitely not win Carrie Ann Inaba doesn't care for her dancing(hee hee

And Stacy's comment: "What did I ever do to her?" C'mon girl - you know exactly why Carrie Ann feels like she has to find some fault with you - to counter-balance Bruno's slobbering.

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Sahara 759 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 11:41 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
Me too.


AF 2006

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DooWahDitty 1615 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 01:13 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
me too.
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CattyChat 3379 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 04:35 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
Unfortunately, I was pretty certain Lisa was going to be gone, because I know Jerry has a lot of fans voting. I thought she handled herself with a lot of class, though.

It will be interesting to see what happens next week, because I really think Jerry has a good chance to make the final 2. It is true that he really doesn't deserve it based on his poor dancing abilities, but at least he comes in each week with a great attitude and he really does try hard. So, for that reason, it won't bother me much if he makes it to final 2 or even wins.

I'm curious to see where Lisa's votes will go. I hope they go to Drew, because he's my fave these past few weeks. He gets my vote, because unlike Stacy, he didn't have an extensive dance background and his hard work & determination have turned him into a pretty decent dancer -- I'm impressed.

When I saw Stacy in the bottom 2 with Lisa, I was hoping that Lisa was going to scrape by -- what an upset that would have been & I would have LOVED to see how the judges would react, ESPECIALLY Bruno. I think Bruno would implode right then and there.

I also noticed, during Lisa & Louis's last dance with everyone hugging, smiling & so forth, Stacy did not look too pleased & was just staring off into space for awhile.


Kind Creation of ARNutz

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bookwomanblue 205 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 04:52 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
I can assure you that my Lisa votes will be going for Drew!
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DooWahDitty 1615 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 04:58 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
Mine too.
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FFantasyFX 1028 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 08:18 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
It really is rather amazing how close Stacy came to elimination last week. If only more people would have voted for Lisa than Drew, we would have had a shocker in the semi-finals.

I must admit I am entirely confused about why people are mentioning a top two though. Unless I've been totally bamboozled, I was under the impression that this Thursday was the final show, and whoever got the top score from the three finalists would be crowned champion. Last Thursday was the semi-finals, and this Thursday should be the finals. It works much better with three couples in the finals anyway, since the judges actually have some power instead of none at all.

If I am mistaken and there are two more episodes, then Jerry will almost without a doubt win. He has the most fan support and that should allow him to escape elimination next week and win the following week.

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DooWahDitty 1615 desperate attention whore postings
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02-18-06, 11:24 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
Thanks Fantasy, for the analyses. I think you're right about the finale being next. It's on Sunday February 26.

I'm digging on the fact that a lot of men are probably now watching this show because of Jerry, and I have to say: Get a clue, take a hint all you men out there who think only sissies dance (Master P being at the top of that list.) Jerry.is.hot.hot.hot. A real man who can learn to shake his booty and his hips.


pachyderm powered by syren

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prosecutor 449 desperate attention whore postings
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02-19-06, 08:55 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Tonight's Results . . . and Finale Predictions"
Since I have always voted for Lisa and Jerry. Jerry will now get all my votes.
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alwaysintruble1 2878 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-06, 08:02 PM (EST)
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17. "Ok, I'm going to be the one to say it"
Jerry winning this season will be almost as big of a farce as P making it as far as he did.

I really like Jerry, he's shown great improvment and class during the entire show. I've even voted for him several times early on in the show, but the fact is Len had it right Thursday night when he told Jerry he was the worst of the four left dancing.

There was a huge outcry when P made it past several dancers who were obviously better than him. Where's that same outcry now?

As much as everyone likes Jerry, can anyone say with a straight face that Jerry is a better dancer than Drew? Stacey? Lisa? George? (Ok, maybe George, but it was close). The fact that Jerry is in the final 3 makes this season more of a joke than it was when P was around. I just wish there was that same outcry over this as there was over P hanging around as long as he did.


If we are what we eat, I'm fast, cheap and easy.

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DooWahDitty 1615 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-06, 08:18 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Ok, I'm going to be the one to say it"
I forget exactly what was being said, but last night Jerry pretty much acknowledged that it should be somebody else who wins. I think he's playing along because he doesn't want to offense anyone, but it would seem he is secretly hoping he doesn't win, knowing it would be controversial.

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prosecutor 449 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-06, 09:09 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Ok, I'm going to be the one to say it"
ya what you said Doowahditty. I think Drew will beat Stacey to take first place anyhoo. I don't understand why P and Jerry can't dance.(naturally gifted I mean). I mean wtf is so difficult about ballroom? his little daughter made it look easy(heh heh). I would think football is a lot harder to be great at. Unless it's his height that's the problem and Anna being not very tall.
I mean Jerry works hard and does good don't get me wrong I wouldn't have voted for him if he sucked like Master P but please give us a touchdown on Sunday Jerry. Go Jerry Go
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FFantasyFX 1028 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-06, 11:07 AM (EST)
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20. "One Explanation"
You know, I hate to sling mud, especially at people who are way more talented at the subject at hand than I am, but I think a good chunk of the blame for Jerry's development rests on the shoulders of his professional dance partner. She just doesn't seem to be as good a mentor as some of the other professionals, and I've been consistently underwhelmed by the choreography she sets up. Had Jerry been paired with Ashley Del Grosso or Charlotte Jurgensen (O'Hurley's partner from last season), I think he would be a lot further along than he currently is.
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DooWahDitty 1615 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-06, 12:00 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: One Explanation"
Anna is a very good dancer, but she's also a spitfire and a hard taskmaster. It was really obvious that Jerry didn't respond to that type of coaching. Ashly was a hard taskmaster with Joey last season, and Joey improved somewhat, but their chemistry together wasn't all that great.

If there is personality chemistry between the two dancers, that adds a lot to the mix. I think you're basically right, however, Jerry's physical condition after years of football curtails somewhat. I used to be a dancer, but now I have to be very cautious because of knee and hip issues. A real drag. your assessment about Ashly and Jerry is interesting and I too would love to see them paired up.

It will be interesting to see who Ashly is paired with next time, and/or what other role she might play. Certainly with her new-found stardom through the show, she'll have more clout with the producers - let's hope she exercises it. She has certainly earned it in several ways.


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mtopaz 2167 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-06, 12:24 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: One Explanation"
It has been clear that Jerry and Anna don't have the same level of closeness that most of the other pairs have developed. Even when they hug each other, it just feels awkward, like the hug you have to give to your aunt with the bad breath, but you keep it short and sweet.


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DooWahDitty 1615 desperate attention whore postings
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02-22-06, 01:32 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: One Explanation"
LOL. Did you see that little spat between Anna and Maximus (sp?) during the rehearsal of the group dance a couple weeks ago? I wonder what would have happened had they paired Anna and George. She wouldn't have liked his funny mugging and joking. I thought it was hilarious and lightened things up.

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02-24-06, 01:03 AM (EST)
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24. "95% Probability of Drew Lachey Win"
After watching tonight, I'm upping my winning percentage for Drew to 95%. He knocked down the major obstacle standing in his path to victory - defeating Stacy in the judges' scoring. Based on my attempts to vote for him, and general fan reaction, I sincerely doubt he'll come in any lower than second in the audience vote, and I think he has a real chance to come in first.

The only reason there is any doubt in my mind is the fact that there is one remaining dance on Sunday that the judges will score. Stacy will need to beat Drew's score by five points on that final number, which would probably end up giving Jerry the title. I think that such a margin would mean a major error on Drew's part, and I'll be interested to see if he plays it safe on Sunday, trying to avoid a last minute choke. I hope he still throws caution to the wind, but I certainly will understand if he doesn't.

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prosecutor 449 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-06, 09:56 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: 95% Probability of Drew Lachey Win"
FFantasyFx I'm sure the judges have it figured out and will score so that Drew wins over Jerry. Jerry has enough trophys in that gorgeous trophy case of his anyways, it's just the competitor in him that wants one more(heehee). Thanks for educating me at least on the scoring system.I won't have any hard feelings for whomever wins the title, they are all winners IMO.
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02-24-06, 12:07 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: 95% Probability of Drew Lachey Win"
Let's hope so! I had no trouble voting for drew from my land line, but had lots of trouble voting for him by cell phone. I kept getting "the subscriber you are trying to reach..." And sometimes the call would not go through. Eventually I reached the limit but had to dial it each time instead of hitting "redial". It wasn't busy from the land line... not a good sign IMO.

It was great seeing Jerry "put on the brutha" last night. And his dancing was the best yet. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins, thought Fantasy I hope your assessment is accurate!


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02-24-06, 02:54 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: 95% Probability of Drew Lachey Win"
DooWa, I had the exact opposite situation. For the first 10 to 15 minutes, I couldn't get through on either my cell or my land line. Then I was able to place the maximum votes for Drew on my cell, but continued to get a busy signal on my land line until time ran out.


Sig pic by JSlice

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CattyChat 3379 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"

02-24-06, 03:03 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: 95% Probability of Drew Lachey Win"
I was very frustrated last night, because I only got through ONE time trying to vote for Drew. I only hope that means that he was getting the majority of the votes.


Kind Creation of ARNutz

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