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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 04-10-01, 02:41 AM (EST) "Just Pieces of a Composite Theory" LAST EDITED ON 04-10-01 AT 02:51 AM (EST) This week we are left starving for information about the RC and IC. MB has used the flash flood to camoflage what could be a pivotal episode. All we have to sustain us in our speculation is stale spoilers... EP10: Tina and Elizabeth making efforts to console Amber. Keith unsimpathetic twords Amber. Colby and Keith plotting something and keeping it from Amber. Liz and Rodger voting for Amber. EP11: Liz and Amber making rice together. Photo of "serious" conversation between Amber and Liz. RC winner is either Amber or Colby. Rodger (holding rope) and someone else take drastic steps to try to save something (rice?) Colby or Amber return from RC reward and hug each other. Amber very upset. Horse may be involved in some aspect of program. IC unknown (possibly rope maze) EP12: Sentimental reward, Tina may get her phone call. Don't have diddly... Possible scenarios for this weeks boot include just about everyone except Tina and Keith. Spoilers/Rumors are all we really have to work with: Amber: Safe Jeff's comments (only 3 days...) Source Code Theory Aboriginal Pictures Limited Face time No Post Filming appearances Tina: Safe People Magazine Story Next week's phone call speculation No logic to support targeting Keith: Safe Aboriginal Pictures Game Logic: desireable opponent in final 2. Rodger: Unknown Jerri's comments (wished she would have gotten to know him better) Safe RyanBBB: Safe Horse Injury: Has to leave Marylan's Friends: Target Daughter's comments about getting very wet: Unknown Game Logic: Ogakor target if Liz wins IC Elisabeth: Safe Boston Herald: Final 4 Source Code Theory JP: Liz kicks butt. Colby: Target Las Vegas Photo/Audio RyanBBB Game Logic: A/L/R target if Amber switches alliance Summary: Based on spoilers and game logic there are two scenarios with the highest probability: 1. Rodger is gone if Amber stays with Ogakor. 2. Colby is gone if Amber switches alliances. Interpretation is purely subjective, because of the lack of information available this week. Either scenario can be supported by the spoilers and the game logic, depending on the reliability you choose to place on them.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: The Two Scenarios IceCat 04-10-01 1    RE: The Two Scenarios Krautboy 04-10-01 2        RE: The Two Scenarios richterboy 04-10-01 4    RE: The Two Scenarios SurvivinDawg 04-10-01 3        K/T Strategy AyatollahKhomeini 04-10-01 5  Maybe there is something that makes... idiotcowboy 04-10-01 6

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-10-01, 07:29 AM (EST) 1. "RE: The Two Scenarios" I agree on the vast majority of your analysis but I would like to add an important element: The Ogies have reverted to the orginal voting pattern of taking out the Kuchas and that Amber is going along with it even after the Jerri removal. In fact, the overall trend of the Ogies voting as a block against a Kucha target has held up for 75% of the time since the merge. Your two scenarios hinge on whether Amber stays with the Ogies or switches to the Kuchas. If Amber were going to switch then she would have switched last week rather than wait for the Kuchas to lose Nick. There is no strategic advantage for her to switch to the Kuchas at this point. Her's and Colby's best chance is align against Tina and Keith after the Kuchas have been removed. They are each other's only real hope for an alliance going into the final four. Now that Keith's blood lust to see Jerri gone has been satisified, the Ogies have reverted to the original plan of eliminating the Kuchas one by one. They voted as one block last week to eliminate Nick. The most likely outcome is that they will do so again to eliminate Rodger this week. As someone has posted before... the narrative is all... the protagonist of the EP11 narrative will be the storm... not a shift in voting strategies... MB would have foreshadowed such a 'shocking twist' as he did prior to Jerri's departure. MB must be thanking his lucky stars that mother nature provided some excitement during the doldrums of the resumption of the Ogie voting juggernaut. The reason I pick Rodger to go is that there is more evidence to support Rodger departing prior to Liz than there is for Liz departing before Rodger. The 'Marilyn's Friends' Theory for one. The next logical candidate for the Ogies to vote off is Liz because she would represent a greater threat for winning a subsequent IC. The only way the Ogies are going to vote Rodger off in EP11 is if Liz wins immunity. To this point I have been speculating using established voting trends and proven long term spoilers. From this point on I am allowing my self the luxury of becoming a little more speculative by making reference to the Rope Maze (or variant) theory which, although based upon its own set of assumptions, is the only plausible prediction that has been made thus far for what the IC format might actually be in EP11. If there are other possible theories that I have missed, I apologize. If the IC is, indeed, the rope maze then Liz would be one of the favorites to win such a challenge. It requires agility and speed. Liz is far more suited to this challenge than any of the men and has a speed advantage over the older Tina. The only possible competition is from Amber (but in my opinion Amber seems less athletic). A few final points regarding some of the other spoilers mentioned: Horses Injury: MB mentioned horses prior to airing... it is, therefore, a red herring and will ultimately have nothing to do with the game outcome. Horses may be used for transporting equipment, crew, possibly contestants to and from filming sites but nothing more. The injury to Rodger is an annoyingly persistent artifact from the Blind-Folded-Marco-Polo nonsense. Ryanbbb: EP11 was supposed to be the acid test for this theory. I prefer to not to quote it until after it has been disproved or proved. AyaK's analysis of Ryanbbb has been complete and fair and I think that we will see Ryanbbb debunked on Thursday. One wonders if it will be allowed to rest of in peace or will someone else will resurrect its corpse to let it stumble around zombie-like through the boards for another week... but I digress Morphed Aboriginal Pics: I have to admit a guilty secret... I support the theory of the Rich/Keith and Kelly/Amber morphs... the pics look 'right'. My PTTE string relies, in part, upon this theory. There... I've 'out'ed myself! Enough for now... I have to get ready for work! IceCat   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 04-10-01, 10:26 AM (EST) 2. "RE: The Two Scenarios" Icecat, based on the limited information provided this week, your scenario is as good as anything. However, I will argue your point about "STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE" for Amber. You state: "If Amber were going to switch then she would have switched last week rather than wait for the Kuchas to lose Nick. There is no strategic advantage for her to switch to the Kuchas at this point." Amber switching last week could only assure her Final 4.(Besides she wasn't emotionally ready.) By waiting until this week a strong IC challenge threat is gone (Nick) and she is assured a Final 3 with Rodger and Liz (except for immunity variations). She also has a "strategic advantage" in the F2 against a Kucha that she may not have against an Ogakor opponent. (a 4 Ogakor vs 3 Kucha jury). She also stans a better chance winning immunity against Rodger and Liz than any combination of the Ogakor. So, I would argue that Amber has a significant "strategic advantage" if she makes the swicth THIS WEEK. Icecat, proud of you for coming forward regarding the "morphed photos" I know it wasn't easy for you. My pet theory is that these pictures show the FINAL 3. (MB gives us full face shots of Amber(2nd) and Keith(3rd) with the winner hidden in the background with only her immunity head dress revealed -- Liz(1st).   Top

richterboy 5 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 04-10-01, 03:19 PM (EST) 4. "RE: The Two Scenarios" Do we know that Amber did not secretly switch sides last week? MB may have chosen not to show a secret discuusion between Liz and Roger and AMber. It would make some sense that L/A/R could have made a secret alliance last week, and attempted to keep it hidden for a while. L/R could have voted for Amber last week to keep the others from thinking that a new alliance had formed. Now that one IC threat is gone, (Nick), the alliance could come to the surface in an effort to oust Colby (another IC threat), then Keith and finally Tina (in order of the threat they pose).   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-10-01, 12:16 PM (EST) 3. "RE: The Two Scenarios" IceCat, I only disagree with ONE thing you're saying: "Your two scenarios hinge on whether Amber stays with the Ogies or switches to the Kuchas. If Amber were going to switch then she would have switched last week rather than wait for the Kuchas to lose Nick. There is no strategic advantage for her to switch to the Kuchas at this point. Her's and Colby's best chance is align against Tina and Keith after the Kuchas have been removed. They are each other's only real hope for an alliance going into the final four." I do not believe that Amber is the pivotal vote; instead, Tina and Keith will make the decision. They could decide to join Rodger and Lis and wax Colby at this time. In other threads I have given reasons why this is not only possible but would make a lot of sense. Other ideas surely are good also (and don't call me "surely" ) The only thing I am not sure of is if they will tell Amber or not. They don't NEED her this time, but definitely WILL need her later. I'll leave this up to speculation and the next episode. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 04-10-01, 03:54 PM (EST) 5. "K/T Strategy" What if Colby is immune?   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-10-01, 07:18 PM (EST) 6. "Maybe there is something that makes sense here..." I'm leaning against Colby going this week because of some of Jerri's comments about not really talking with him much until after the game... if he leaves now they have 10 days before the final TC, plus all of the post production to talk. Seems a little long for me to think they would not have some type of interaction... enough so that Jerri would no longer be delusional about their relationship... and not surprised by some of his comments. I'm leaning against Rodger going this week because of MB's horse hints... whenever MB points us one direction I tend to want to go the other way... although I must say he gave us some pretty good hints on Jerri... but I think that was the exception NOT the rule! I'm sure Tina can't go yet because she hasn't called home yet... probably next week... but you never know... regardless she ain't leaving until it happens! That leaves us with Keith, Lis, and Amber I've been real concerned about picking against an Ogre this week because of a lack of any overly dramatic adjectives used in the teasers. If Keith went this week I would think it would be something of a "shock" (same goes for Colby or Tina) at least to the general viewing audience. The spoilers he is associated with are fairly minimal. The most compelling probably being the aboriginal photo... but I've always kinda thought the pics were a male and female composite of ALL of the contestants (ie male photo is a composite of all the male contestants and the female a composite of all the female)... not just the finalist. If so Keith's party timing could be of some significance, especially coupled with his attitude from last week... but for now at least I'm starting to lean away from this (so much for my PTTE!) Next we have Lis... I have picked her the last 2 weeks in the Sup's poll... not because it was likely but because I truly felt it was the smart thing for the other contestant to do (plus I was staring to feel a little sorry for Nick and VampKira last week ). If Lis went this week... wow... it would kill about every spoiler left in the book... if Rodger doesn't go though... surely it would have to be her... right? Finally we have Amber... we saw K/C discussing something about her (one mark against it being her, but not much of one as it was quick and many may have missed it)... the RC/flood pics and teaser indicate she's got a better chance to win RC than Keith/Tina/Lis... or Rodger? so 50-50 she wins and isn't around for the flood. R/L voted against her last week... might they be inclined to do it again this week?... also, since no one really has seen much of her so far would it merit the word "shock" in a teaser if she is next?... add that to the fact Nick lists her as someone he didn't like during the game but afterwards thought was okay... not to mention at this point Jerri might not be so nice to her now she's got a new best buddy, and doesn't need Miss Beaver, PA to hang with... finally although she has several spoilers for her... she's not got near as many as Lis... I think we may have the answer... AMBER goes this week! ... that's my story and I'm sticking with it... unless a better one comes along soon! -ICB   Top

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