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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't
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but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other
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As entertainment critic Roger
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with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
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"Brain Trust "prediction" probably a crock"
Thinking 104 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-08-01, 12:43 PM (EST)
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"Brain Trust "prediction" probably a crock" |
After reading this board for weeks, I'm finally jumping into the fray with a post. I hate to see all the hard work everyone here does predicting who will be booted get overshadowed by that Ellipsiis "Brain Trust" which is being promoted over at SurvivorSucks.com. I know you guys have a keen nose for false spoilers, and I'm extending that to false predictions.Have you noticed the "brain Trust" won't post their incredibly detailed and overly confident predictions until AFTER 8 p.m. Eastern Time? This leads me to believe they have either: a) access to a descrambler for the satellite uplink b) a friend in Newfoundland, which as part of Canada views the episodes the same night we do here in the US, but is in an even earlier time zone (BEFORE Eastern time U.S.) To prove they're really "predicting" so much of the show, why won't they post their predictions two days in advance? I've written challenging them to do so, but I highly doubt they'll manage to come through with that! Well, thanks for letting me vent. Back to lurking....
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Lurking 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-08-01, 12:52 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Brain Trust "prediction" probably a crock" |
A Newfoundland contact? I haven't thought of that possibility.
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Thinking 104 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-08-01, 07:20 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Brain Trust "prediction" probably a crock" |
After e-mailing the Brain Trust with my comments, I was sent the URL to their FAQs. Here's a quote: <<ABOUT OUR PICKS Our picks have been the source of a lot of attention recently. Everyone wants to know where they come from and why we post them when we do. They come simply from spoiling. I know that's a boring answer, but it's the truth. No, we don't post the reasons or sources, and this is because we, again, don't want the people with Survivor to be able to curb any recurring leaks or sources of information. >> So, bascially they're admitting these AREN'T predictions, but actual spoilers, probably by someone who thinks it's safe to release specifics so close to air time. I think the site should make that clear. It may seem like semantics, but there's a difference between someone in the know telling us what will definitely happen and fans piecing together well-thought-out guesses based on tidbits gleaned from a variety of sources. Frankly, I stand by my feeling that we're doing the real work--We're working for our information, not being handed it on a platter by an inside "source."
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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04-08-01, 08:04 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Brain Trust "prediction" probably a crock" |
<<Frankly, I stand by my feeling that we're doing the real work--We're working for our information, not being handed it on a platter by an inside "source.">>Still, it'd be nice to have even just one believable S1 style slip or error this season.... Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-09-01, 06:38 AM (EST)
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5. "OH GOOD GRIEF!" |
What is this obsession with the Brain Trust??? I give them one damn compliment about getting their predictions right and what happens? Webmaster SB gets all offended and puts up a post acting offended about it, others start crying about them in relation to this board. Now I am seeing a slew of attacks against them on this board. If MB himself was telling them what was happening, and was telling them the truth, SO WHAT? That would seem like DARN GOOD spoiler info to me!!!! Whether or not they have sources or a leak or just figure it out from pictures like some people here do, they've gotten some predictions right! And a couple of those predictions, I saw from them before anyone else even MENTIONED it on this board. Furthermore to this subject, since I'm venting about this subject, I have noticed that several times certain spoiler info gets posted here, there are certain persons (and I'm not talking about shakestheclown flaming newbies, different thing entirely) who IMMEDIATELY come out and disparage the post, saying that the information posted CANNOT be right, etc. etc. etc. One example is the Source Code Theory, another is ryanbbb. There are SEVERAL other such examples. It looks to me that if a core clique of individual on this board don't find and post the spoilers themselves, then they go crying that the info just CANNOT be correct. What if the Source Code Theory *IS* true? Nothing has disproved it YET, although it may be a red herring. But the moment it was posted, there were IMMEDIATE comparisons to Gervase-X and every other excuse in the world to discredit it, and I got the distinct feeling that it was because one of the "core clique" didn't come up with it first. No, I'm not trying to disparage this board or the good spoiler work done by persons on this board, but good grief! quit acting so damn jealous of someone who got it right! *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "When I come in, the party will begin. I am... SurvivinDawg." -- SurvivinDawg "I've never been bored a day in my life. Only boring people get bored." -- Jerri Manthey
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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04-09-01, 01:39 PM (EST)
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13. "Load of crap Part II" |
It >looks to me that if >a core clique of individual >on this board don't find >and post the spoilers themselves, >then they go crying that >the info just CANNOT be >correct. ....Nothing could be futher from the truth! The "core clique" as you call them is interested in one thing and one thing only, spoiling the show! No one in that group cares about getting personal credit for spoilers...in fact, until all the new posters showed up about a month ago, I never saw an example where people were giving credit to individual posters for unearthing spoilers.
This board has always been about a team effort. As far as an unwillingness to accept certain spoilers as fact, that is the whole point of this board.....to analyze and TRY and refute ALL spoilers...only those spoilers that can survive such scrutiny are accepted...of the two spoilers you mention, one of them (ryanbbb) has fallen flat on its face through in-depth analysis (IMHO) and the other (Source code) is too good to be true and therefore is the perfect red herring, which explains why some people on this board have a hard time believing its veracity. But, in both cases, the reasons for doubting these spoilers and trying to refute them has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with being jealous about not finding them ourselves. That is an assinine and completely unfounded assertion on your part. Something you might have missed that should be discussed. After E#9, there was a few posters who were taking credit (or being given credit) for coming up with Scerri as the boot 2 weeks before the episode, when everyone else was leaning a different way. I found this hilarious considering that EVERY PERSON taking the credit had arrived at the correct boot with completely INCORRECT logic. In other words, they got lucky. But, notice how no one from the "core clique" jumped in to point this out even as some of these posters were tooting their horn all over this board.....we were all just happy that people on this board were able to come up with the correct boot, which started a momentum that led to the MAJORITY of the people on this board guessing the boot correctly that week. IF the core clique was that neurotic and jealous, you would've seen several posts pointing out the faulty logic/ lucky guessing of these few posters. This board works well because the majority of the people on here could care less about getting credit for spoilers and are all interested in a common goal, spoiling the worst show on Earth. As far as the Eliipsiiis thing, I don't understand why people get mad at them, but it seems to me like those people are mostly on the EZboard and not here....I personally think they do a GREAT job.
I know this post wasn't directed at me, but I thought I would jump in and clear up what I thought was a complete mischaracterization of the vets of this board.
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-09-01, 04:37 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: OH GOOD GRIEF!" |
>What is this obsession with the >Brain Trust??? I give >them one damn compliment about >getting their predictions right and >what happens? Webmaster SB >gets all offended and puts >up a post acting offended >about it, Offended? ...I wasn't offended (trust me, you'll know when I get offended) The main question that I was simply pondering was why they were bothering to "predict" some "gimme" spoilers. ...something that at first glance seemed to me to have no other likely purpose than possibly looking to inflate their already impressive stats (agree or not, you have to agree "5 for 5" or "4 for 5" sounds much more impressive than "1 for 1" or "1 for 2") ...because other than the "5 for 5" business, there are lots of other folks out there that have also correctly predicted the same core elements. ...and then after my posting, someone explained that all their postings were with regard to SS' FOB game. Question answered. Re: "obsession" -- hey, you're the one who started it by "saluting" them, surely you had to expect that it was going to result in some followup conversation, both pro and con -- if not, that was a bit naive on your part. That said, I'll repeat what I said before -- I respect their skills, just like I respect those of everyone here, and I don't want anyone here getting us into a board war (in fact I'll go as far to threaten ejection to anyone who does - I'm serious in this point, no matter how many DAW postings you might have). The fact is that they have chosen to "go underground" and not only close the board due to bandwidth issues, but to also not publicly post their reasons for a pick for fear of giving MB a clue as to how to prevent them from continuing to do it. ...whether it's paranoia or legit, who knows, and I'm not sure I agree with it (do they *REALLY* think that a "mole" couldn't have posted enough "prediction" info to get accepted into their forum, hell, apparently even SurvivorNews.net is violating their security, something I DO NOT agree with by the way -- and he's "just a guy who posts some news" -- not a show with the resources of a Fortune 500 corporation) ...but regardless of our personal thoughts, it's their decision and their's alone. So, yes, the bottom line is enough with the anti-TE postings. But for it to stop, I think it's also only fair to expect the "congrats to TE" postings to also stop -- you're pouring gasoline on the flame, taking one side in a, for better or worse, somewhat controversial issue, and then being surprised to see a flame result -- it's not realistic. ...the reality (no pun intended) is that, this being the Internet, there is always going to be a group of folks who resent TE, for whatever reason, fairly or not, due to the extremely secretive techniques that they are employing in an otherwise highly open medium. I think the only way we are going to prevent these flare ups is to just stop talking about them -- good or bad. -SB
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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04-09-01, 04:59 PM (EST)
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17. "Sounds good to me" |
I take some of the blame for starting this "obsession", since I posted the last two links to the ellipsiiis picks. I can take a hint too...
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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-09-01, 05:40 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: OH GOOD GRIEF!" |
>medium. I think the >only way we are going >to prevent these flare ups >is to just stop talking >about them -- good or >bad. > No offense, and I know this is a board you run so I'll defer to your decision, but... I find acknowledgement pre-show of their picks to be useful in roughly the same way that I find the Boston Herald's pre-show publishings to be useful. Their picks, to me, are just one more resource that we can tap. I think it'd be a shame to shut that down.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-09-01, 07:07 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: OH GOOD GRIEF!" |
>Re: "obsession" -- hey, you're the one who started it by >"saluting" them, surely you had to expect that it was >going to result in some followup conversation, both pro and >con -- if not, that was a bit naive on >your part. Call me naive, then, but I did not expect the amount of followup conversation nor the direction a lot of it has taken. In fact, I didn't expect any response to my original post. However, I have no further interest in discussing any of it and I'm certainly not going to be starting, or participating in, any "board wars." *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged
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crazy canuck 3 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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04-09-01, 09:36 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Brain Trust "prediction" probably a crock" |
Sorry Thinking... Newfoundlanders do not see Survivor before anyone in Boston. I have a Canadian satellite dish that gets all Canadian stations and the Newfies don't get Survivor before anyone else. EDT is first
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JustD 9 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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04-09-01, 06:46 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Brain Trust "prediction" probably a crock" |
>It seems >that if one looks at >the vidcaps for each episode >crtically and considers what genuine >spoilers there are out there >one can come up with >what is very likey to >happen in any given episde. Yep. >Elip also seems >to come up with >some pretty close to the >fact predictions (the tug of >war for example) For the record, on March 22 or 23, in a thread about log rolling (here at SB), I disagreed, and said it looked more like some sort of tug of war... My post died a quiet death, and everyone went with log rolling. Also, pre-merge, I saw Liz' pink bikini (in vid caps) in the Oga camp, and posted. Everyone was in such an uproar, trying to decide if there would be ambassadors & who would move where, and my post ("Pink bikini in Oga camp") was quickly buried. I'm not complaining, I wasn't looking for recognition, I just wanted to share my spoils. *Shrugs* Yes, the info is out there, you just have to look carefully & THINK about it, & not get caught up in board wars or in flame wars... xo, D
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-09-01, 07:12 PM (EST)
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21. "Re: Log Rolling" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-09-01 AT 07:26 PM (EST)As the person who did the video analysis that came up with the log rolling idea, I feel I should clarify something... The video clips shown in the preview (the head and shoulder shots at the end) were primarily taken from that portion of the IC that involved the log-shaking portion of the challenge. The tug of war aspect of the challenge also turned out to be correct (if not even more correct as 2 out the 3 challenge components involved rope pulling). We post to try and contribute to finding out as much info as we can in advance of the show airing. Sometimes our posts catch the imagination of others and generate discussion... sometimes they don't. Quite often a correct prediction gains no discussion. Personally I think that is the cruelest cut of all... having a post die. I personally would rather be flamed then to have a post that I thought merited discussion rocket off into the blackhole of page 2 without a single post We cannot control the perceptions of others, sometimes we are heard sometimes we are not. If a person is here to be congratulated then they are in for a disappointment. This is not the purpose of the board. The purpose of the board is to generate and support discussion. When it does that, the board is at its most enjoyable. I think some kudos should be awarded to the true spoiler finder who found that aerial shot of the actual IC compettition site. I can't remember the person's name but I am going to find it and edit this post to add their name. Edited to add: The person who found the aerial shot was kirin. I congratulated him/her as they were a new poster and contributed something valuable on one of their first postings. Congratulations for newbies are necessary, I think, as it helps to provide positive reinforcement for positive contributions and behaviours. Once we have been around for a while, the real reward is being part of the discussion... contributing to the threads generated by others and creating your own when you feel something else merits discussion.
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-09-01, 07:36 PM (EST)
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23. "Check the Record..." |
> For the record, on March 22 or 23, in a thread about log > rolling (here at SB), I disagreed, and said it looked more > like some sort of tug of war... My post died a quiet death, > and everyone went with log rolling. A quick check the of record revealed that your post was not entirely ignored and that, in fact, the Ayatollah hisself supported your idea: http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1081.shtml#2 In fact, AyaK was able to support both the log rolling idea and the tug of war idea (in the true diplomatic fashion for which he is both known and respected) Take the laurels where you can find 'em... but remember the true reward is in the discussion itself.
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ElmersGlue 57 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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04-09-01, 10:24 AM (EST)
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8. "A couple of points" |
>>I hate to see all the hard work everyone here does predicting >>who will be booted get overshadowed by that Ellipsiis "Brain >>Trust" How exactly are they overshadowing us? We could just as easily go to the EZ Board and post our predictions on Thursday afternoon....but you would find few people here who would want to do that. Board Wars are nasty and stupid and it would simply cause thousands of EZ users to flock here all at once - causing our board to crash. >>Have you noticed the "brain Trust" won't post their incredibly >>detailed and overly confident predictions until AFTER 8 p.m. >>Eastern Time? Not true - they usually have them up early Thursday afternoon. Even if they were getting some kind of secret satellite feed or insider information - again "SO WHAT???" How does that affect what we do? I find the Ellipsiis "Brain Trust" to be 99.8% nice people who are more than happy to discuss their spoilers with you if you email them. They also spend ALOT of time - some of them several hours a day on spoiling this show. There are a few of them who seem to equate their membership with an acceptance letter to the Harvard School of Law - but OH WELL! We have a couple of characters over here also. btw - My Fantasy Outback score is higher than most of the Elipsiis Team - I'm well within the top 100....and I've mostly used the spoilers from **This Board** So - it is quite possible to do what they do without the incredulous insider information accusations.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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04-09-01, 11:43 AM (EST)
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9. "Several thoughts" |
Well, looks like an animated conversation. And I think I may have been referenced in it. Naturally, I want to jump in the middle.1. Ellipsiiis: first off, "spoiling" involves using any info that tells you what's going to (or likely to) happen. I disagree with Thinking's characterization that predictions are not spoiling. Seems to me that if anyone accurately predicts (with some confidence) what is about to happen on Survivor, they've spoiled it. At least, that's the way I'd use the word. And this board has been CERTAIN on the last three shows that Alicia, Jerri, and Nick would go (with a few dissenters, but that happens anywhere -- probably even in ellipsiiis). I also don't understand this obsession with whether ellipsiiis has an inside source. As I said in an earlier post, SB.com doesn't have an inside source and it has picked several correct boots. It seems to me that the ONLY way ellipsiiis could post their predictions "two days in advance", as you request, Thinking, is if they DID have an inside source and they were not predictions. As far as your other contentions (late release of picks; a Newfoundland feed), I think others have disproven them, and I have nothing further to add. Seems to me that ellipsiiis is simply good at spoiling. So is SB. The better all of us can predict what's coming in the show, the happier everyone will be, except MB. 2. Dawg: As Travis Bickle would say, "you talkin' to me?" I'm going to presume that you are and answer accordingly; sorry if I've misinterpreted you. I apologize if it seems that I look down upon any spoiler not developed by myself or a few other individuals. The "source code spoiler" could indeed be the final two, and I can't prove it is or it isn't. The ryanbbb spoiler could be the pathway to the final four, and I can't prove it is or it isn't. Nevertheless, I'm very skeptical of these as predictors, not because I didn't find them first, but because they seem to tell us too much. My problem with "uncle cameraman" is that, from the time I first saw it, I thought E11 would be the first point at which we could finally prove if it was right or wrong. As I've said before, until then it's only a good prediction that was consistent with a lot of other predictions. (Kucha gets booted in order, with Jerri getting fried early thanks to Keith). If a TERK alliance had meterialized, it would be more credible, but one didn't. It is possible that someone could have received a list of boots and made up a theory to match them; the boots would be right, but the theory would then be wrong. But that's not what the original poster claimed. Anyway, we'll know Thursday. As far as the "source code" theory -- I posted the complete code on this site for people to examine. It just seems unbelievable to me that CBS would make an error of this magnitude on its Web site, just as "Gervase-X" seemed unbelievable to me last year. Because Gervase-X turned out to be false, I believe the source code theory is also false. I think that's a reasonable deduction. If I'm wrong, you'll have plenty of opportunity to point it out. My advice every week is the same: make the best guess based on the evidence. We have already seen that an article in the LA Times with spoiler info (more men than women at the merge) was fake. Yet now I have come to accept the Boston Herald spoiler ("Liz makes final four") as accurate because the Herald has demonstrated that it may indeed have an inside source. There was no such follow-up info for either ryanbbb or the source code spoiler.
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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-09-01, 12:48 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Several thoughts" |
>As far as the "source code" >theory -- I posted the >complete code on this site >for people to examine. >It just seems unbelievable to >me that CBS would make >an error of this magnitude >on its Web site, just >as "Gervase-X" seemed unbelievable to >me last year. Because >Gervase-X turned out to be >false, I believe the source >code theory is also false. > I think that's a >reasonable deduction. If I'm >wrong, you'll have plenty of >opportunity to point it out. I've been thinking about something for a while now and am finally prompted to post it. The source code seems like such an unbelievably obvious red herring. If MB is as shrewd as he thinks he is, wouldn't it make sense to give the actual answer in a way that is SO obvious that everyone who sees it would not believe it? If he gives us the answer so easily in only the second season, wouldn't that set him up nicely to really play with our minds beyond the second season? In other words, if he keeps posting wrong information in the source code, there will come a time where nothing in the source code will EVER be believed, sort of like the boy crying "wolf." If it's real, though... we'll always have to give every little possible spoiler at least SOME weight. Having said all that, I don't think MB is as shrewd as he thinks he is. I believe it's a red herring. But the possibility that it's not, that it's a red herring red herring, continues to nag at me.
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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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04-09-01, 03:43 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Several thoughts" |
Just 2 cents from one of the non-sleuths:I understand and respect how serious some are about this spoiling business. We all have are own motivations for reading, posting, and analyzing. For me, a lot of the appeal is the human nature aspect. Not just who will be booted and in what order, but why? How will these people behave, react, interact? And the mystery aspect - we get partial info, and the info we get is very purposefully chosen. Given that we are at disadvantage, can we still make accurate reads? Also, the ICs and RCs- I love the research and predictions done here to guess the games, the outcomes. And interpreting the wording of the previews. So just getting the final 2 names handed to us in a source code error, or a list of bootees with very different behaviors and reasons leading up to those boots - that's not appealing to me. I have wondered what the more strident defenders of these spoilers want from us - are we just to roll over and say, "well, here's the answer, so why bother with the spoiler boards anymore"? Is it just to be able to bask in the reflected glory if in fact those spoilers are right, and they happened to believe them? I am not trying to be argumentative here, I just really am curious why they get so upset when these spoilers are questioned. Thanks for hearing me out. dangerkitty
w.l.s.f.c.
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