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"EP11: "Common Adversity" Creates Alliances"
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-01, 12:37 PM (EST)
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"EP11: "Common Adversity" Creates Alliances"
As we have seen from the previews, the flood is the dominant story in EP11. A shared event like a snow storm, hurricane or any crisis brings people closer together. The flood will become a "common adversity" that will bring the Barramundi together, in much the way that Mike's burn accident brought the Kucha tribe together.

Up to this point, the Ogakor and Kucha alliances have been the strongest loyalties. This week it looks like the camp and the existing alliances that it represents, will be washed away; the slate wiped clean. Afterwards, some of the alliances will quickly reestablish, but others may not...

Someone will not be there to share the pain and the "common adversity". That person may have a more difficult time rebuilding their alliances...

After the flood scenarios:

1. Ogakor Reunites. (Ogakor 4 vs Kucha 2)

Colby is "heroic", Tina comforts Amber, the Ogakor are comfortable with the secutity of what was before, in the wake of the flood and the chaos that results.


2. Tina makes her move. (Liz(2), Rodger(0), Tina(0) vs Colby(5), Keith(5?, Amber(2). 3-3 (Colby or Keith lose tie-breaker)

The events of the flood, and how people deal with the crisis opens Tina's eyes to the spiritual strength and leadership of Rodger and the positive attitude of Elisabeth. Tina bonds with "her kind of people". Final 3 either way, she goes for the "heart and spirit".


3. Tina takes Keith along. Roger/Liz, Tina/Keith vs Colby, Amber, 4-2.

By his absence, Colby is left out as the new alliances form after the flood. He has become a major threat in the challenges, winning two in a row, and when he fails to win immunity, he becomes the logical target. Tina uses this as he opportunity to make her move and join her soul mates. But remember "Tina is smart" and even during a crisis, she is playing the game. Her goal is to take Keith to the final 2 with her. She knows, Jerri hates him, Nick won't vote for him and this way Amber and Keiths votes would be in question too. It could be unamimous for Tina!


4. Amber and Liz bond. Amber(2), Liz(2), Rodger(0) vs Colby(5), Keith(5?), Tina(0). 3-3 (Colby or Keith lose tie-breaker)

The flood washes away any hard feelings that Amber may have had about the voting and replaces them with more "primal" concerns about food and shelter. Liz and Amber continue to bond through the flood experience and the sharing of the "common adversity" builds the trust in the Kucha (Liz and Rodger) that was lacking in EP10.

The flood changes Ambers perspective on the game. Her "comfort zone" has been washed away and she has nothing left to lose. She takes a chance and makes the move with encouragement from Liz. (Remember during TC when she said "I've become a riskier person". Well the flood experience pushed her over the edge.

Amber was already feeling like an outsider, and Keith showed no simpathy when he said "that's the way she chose to play the game and there's nothing she can do about it now". Amber knows 4th place is the best she can get with the Ogakor (with a Liz or Rodger immunity in EP12 and its 5th). She knows that the last time the Ogakor were up by 2 votes Jerri went, their up by two again and she is a potential target. This is her last chance. The flood helps to make her decision. She has nothing to lose...


Colby appears to have a bad sense of timing. He wins the immunity challenge when he doesn't need to. He forgets that winning the RC allienates you from the rest of the tribe. He misses the flood and the "common adversity" bonding experience. And fails to win the IC that really does count.

Too many people have got Colby in their sites, and Nick is waiting for him on the jury, so they can plan their trip to Las Vegas...

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: EP11: "Common Adversity" Create... munson 04-07-01 1
   RE: EP11: "Common Adversity" Create... Loree 04-07-01 5
   Daylight vs Night IceCat 04-07-01 7
       RE: Daylight vs Night Loree 04-07-01 8
       RE: Daylight vs Night Krautboy 04-08-01 10
 I think that I'll Have to Disagree.... IceCat 04-07-01 2
   RE: I think that I'll Have to Disag... munson 04-07-01 3
       RE: I think that I'll Have to Disag... IceCat 04-07-01 4
       Pause for Thought... IceCat 04-07-01 6
           RE: Pause for Thought... idiotcowboy 04-07-01 9
 RE: EP11: "Common Adversity" Create... Krautboy 04-08-01 11
 RE: EP11: "Common Adversity" Create... thecrock 04-09-01 12

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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-01, 02:32 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: EP11: "Common Adversity" Creates Alliances"
Krautboy, insightful analysis. Great job, as always!

I'm thinking Colby wins the RC based on the following:
-- MB's statement on ET that the rumored horses make an appearance in E11.
-- IC's typically involve some type of basic survival skill, intelligence or endurance whereas RC's are more in-line with carnival games for prizes. Horses, if indeed part of a challenge and I can't imagine there would be any other reason for horses on the show but who knows, seem like an RC prop.
-- As Keith said in E10, "The cowboy can ride horses and bulls but he can't catch grasshoppers!"
-- The camp flooding begins while the tribe is at the RC. One of the tribe misses out on the initial action. This is most likely because the winner is enjoying the reward
-- No daylight shots of Colby at the flooded camp in the previews.

This fits nicely with the third scenario you presented. Winning three challenges (2 RC's and the last IC) along with a runner-up IC finish only a few days ago (in Outback time), along with his competitive nature make him a BIG target, especially for L/R. We don't see Colby doing much - he doesn't fish, doesn't cook, can't catch grasshoppers - but he is sure enjoying some mighty nice rewards! Might start to get kind of irritating.

I agree that at this point Tina must realize that her best chance in the final 2 is with either Keith or Amber, if that order. If Colby does not win immunity, Tina confirms that L/R plan on voting for him, realizes that he could potentially win IC's all the way home, joins in, with or without Keith (but probably with) and adios, Colbster!

I'm still not buying a GGA. L/R are playing the "Sean" role, deciding who will get their votes and an opportunistic alliance (T/K) joins in. I think this is why L/R voted Amber in E10. In fact, Tina probably confirmed this with Liz before TC. Liz may have made a point of letting Tina know their intentions. Hey, it worked with Jerri!

As for Amber, I think Tina will work to protect her for the next few shows. A defection to Kucha would be a longshot in my opinion. Even Amber must know that her best chance at the money is a match-up with another Ogie, Keith specifically, in the final. But I doubt she'll vote for Colby. T/K/C/A agree on which Kucha is the next to go then vote Colby at TC.

My prediction (don't, it's too early) for E11 (stop before it's too late). Colby's out 4-2 (idiot!).

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-01, 04:38 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: EP11: "Common Adversity" Creates Alliances"
I agree with you munson. I do think Colby is the one missing in the daytime shots at the camp. There is one of Amber outside with Liz in the daylight on the other vidcaps. But we only see Colby at night. I think he is the winner of the RC.

I think Colby is the dangerous one and I always have wondered just how much work he does. We certainly see him lose his temper alot and stomp off while others are working and he doesn't fish or cook. So does he really work anymore than Nick? But he always has his strength for the challenges. And he is very competitive. The others have to be worried about that. He is also very likeable. So it wouldn't be easy winning a final vote against him.

I think just like the Jerri vote there will be a mixing of alliances this time and Colby is booted. But I think then they return to original alliances and boot out Rodger and Liz after that. It is looking like Tina, Keith and Amber in the final 3 to me.

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-01, 05:27 PM (EST)
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7. "Daylight vs Night"
LAST EDITED ON 04-07-01 AT 05:29 PM (EST)

There is a sequence of three shots designed to look like night camera footage but the first two shots are daylight footage modified to look like night cams:

These above two shots have been changed to monochrome to look like night cam footage. There are two give-aways that show these to be daytime shots:

1) The light clothing that Tina and Keith and Colby are wearing;

2) The amount of background detail that appears on both land and in the water.

The shot with Rodger holding the rope is night cam footage. You can tell because of how he is dressed, the lack of background detail and the 'flash-light' hot spot in the center of the screen. I think they are using infrared illuminators on their night cams and the emitters are producing a bright spot in the center of the screen that moves around with the camera.

I think the Rodger footage was inserted to help the illusion of the two previous shots being taken at night. In actual fact however, it looks like the Rodger shot was taken at a completely different time.

The result is, however, that it looks like Colby is present during the daytime flood activities and that MB is going to rather extreme lengths to try and hide that fact from us. He wants us to think Colby is the one not present for the flood.

MB is being more crafty than usual in terms of editing and image processing in this preview. Lots of video trickery this time.

IceCat

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-01, 06:23 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Daylight vs Night"
Now I'm just getting more confused. MB just loves to toy with us. So then is it Rodger that isn't there while the others are cleaning up and that is why he is asking where the rice can is?
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-01, 00:25 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Daylight vs Night"
LAST EDITED ON 04-08-01 AT 00:32 AM (EST)

Icecat, good work.

AJA, also posted the original preview vidcaps over on the "ez board":

<http://pub53.ezboard.com/fsurvivorsucksfrm2.showMessage?topicID=5160.topic>

The "night shots" of Tina pointing, with Keith in the background are the same as the daylight shots in the original preview. So the question is why is MB showing us the same shots as day and night.

Amber and Colby are "missing from the AJA "daylight" shots, but the man crossing the river is from the same series of daylight shots, just made to look like a "night" shot.

The question is, is it Colby made to look like he arrived after dark, or is it Rodger or Keith made to look like it happens at night to confuse us about the timing? Or are all three men there and MB is trying to steer us away from the fact that Amber is not seen in any of the post RC shots?

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-01, 02:50 PM (EST)
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2. "I think that I'll Have to Disagree..."
LAST EDITED ON 04-07-01 AT 03:02 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 04-07-01 AT 02:59 PM (EST)

I'm pretty sure that it will be Amber that wins the RC, not Colby. The new preview clip on the CBS site shows a number of clips that, upon close analysis, reveal Colby in an active roll throughout the flood:

I have posted some vid caps in the following thread:

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1194.shtml

Frame 8 shows Colby fording a stream. The cowboy hat is more evident in the moving video. An enhanced view appears here:

Frame 19 of this pair shows Colby wearing his orange bandana sitting on the far side of Tina:

I suggest that Amber is the one who goes off for a reward challenge (probably for a spa treatment): In Frame 21 of the following pair, Amber's hair has been styled (shiny and with a wave). I'd say that Colby is hugging her after her return to the camp and she is crying after hearing what happened to the others.


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munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-01, 04:03 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: I think that I'll Have to Disagree..."
By the way, IceCat, excellent job with the vidcaps.

I initially thought that was Amber on the other side of Tina in Frame 19 because of that red/maroon/orange headband she's wearing in Frame 21. Amber-headband, Colby-cowboy hat.

Didn't really pick-up on the hair changes you mentioned altho did notice it looked quite good in E10. Remember wondering what type of soap (or similar cleansing product) they had there in the Outback. Compared to the others, she does look far too clean!

I did see Colby in the caps but assumed the "river crossing" night shots took place upon his return from enjoying the reward.

I guess Amber would need to go off to the "SurvivorSpa" the same way Kelly went to "SurvivorBar." Not likely they'll take her anywhere near civilization, especially not over to the ranch.

I like the RC speculation.

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-01, 04:17 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: I think that I'll Have to Disagree..."
Thanks for the compliment, Munson...

I just realized that I have had three weeks in a row of off-the-wall analysis subjects:

Log-rolling Immunity Challenges
Out of Control Bodily Functions
Now... Hairdressing Analysis

I guess yah gotta take yer spoilers where yah find em...

IceCat

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-01, 04:55 PM (EST)
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6. "Pause for Thought..."
> I initially thought that was Amber on the other side of Tina
> in Frame 19 because of that red/maroon/orange headband she's
> wearing in Frame 21. Amber-headband, Colby-cowboy hat.

Your comment about the head band gave me pause, Munson...

So I went back to the video and captured a detail from the scene showing the dejected tribe members sitting in a row...

I zoomed in on the last figure and and enhanced contrast and colour saturation... the results seem to support your hypothesis that the flash of of colour on the head is Amber's headband... in fact the maroon colour is almost identical...

I'm still standing by my 'hair-dresser' spoiler, however, as that woman's hair looks suspiciously well-coiffed. Mind you, she could just be one of those woman who looks good all the time. No make up required... hair just falls into place...

IceCat

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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-01, 11:49 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Pause for Thought..."
Icecat-

Great work on the clips! I can't tell whether that's Amber in the pics or not.. but it does kinda look like it's her (it could be after she returns from the RC... C/A hug pic is in the daylight) The more interesting observation was the "night" shot... if MB is trying to confuse us with the obvious day shot turned to night (Tina/Keith) why would he add the shot of the guy crossing the water... when I initially looked at the clip I was sure that it was Rodger... now I'm leaning toward it being Colby (which makes more sense anyway) and the reason for the "night" shot is to confuse the teaser and make us think it's Colby who won the RC and therefore send suspicion on him being the one voted off.

If Colby goes this week I think to the general public at least it would be classify as a "surprise" or a "shock" (or some other overly dramatic adjective) and since they were omitted from the teaser... I'm starting to think he's safe... Amber on the other hand...

Keep up the great work!

Your #1 fan... logic will prevail, eventually if not sooner

-ICB

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-01, 11:13 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: EP11: "Common Adversity" Creates Alliances"
An additional "after the flood scenario" is:

5. Keith and Colby Plot against Amber. (K/C/T vote Amber while Amber votes Rodger or Liz, it doesn't matter who Liz and Rodger vote for)

Amber wins the reward challenge and is gone when the flood hits. She returns to a tribe in turmoil, has no opportunity to bond with anyone and is left without any alliance. Keith and Colby are already plotting against her...

<http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1201.shtml#1>

Amber thinks she's voting with the Ogakor, but gets voted off in much the same way Jerri did. Colby, Keith, Tina keep the vote to themselves without involving the Kucha to avoid the risk of Liz imforming Amber of their plans. Amber is gone 5-1, or 3-2-1, depending on who the Kucha vote for.

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thecrock 14 desperate attention whore postings
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04-09-01, 01:51 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: EP11: "Common Adversity" Creates Alliances"
Per Amber the looking good pic, I recall in an earlier episode Tina braided her hair similarly. Amber might win the RC, but my suspicion at this point is that it will be Roger that goes.

It makes little sense for the Ogakor group to let up at this point....next week perhaps. I sure hope that the next teasers are better because there is darned little to go on now.

I just hope it ISN'T Colby this week, if for no other reason it should kill this Uncle Cameraman crap.

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