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"Nick on Good Morning AMerica + common logic?!?"
Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-06-01, 11:11 AM (EST)
 
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"Nick on Good Morning AMerica + common logic?!?" |
Hello fellow posters...Today we rejoice in the fact that this board is doing pretty damn good after all!!! Things are starting to come back together after the illogically logical ousting of sweet Playboy posing (I hope) Jerri. Anyway, I watched Bryant grill Nick this morning and there were a couple of things that he said that may be spoilerish... 1. When asked why he voted for Kieth he stated that he had talked with Roger and Amber, then he said I mean Roger and Liz, and I knew that I was next. He then explained that when he saw that Kieth didn't show up with his backpack it was arrogance so he cast his vote to Kieth. From this I took it as though he may have discussed the situation with Liz and Roger and after knowing that they were going to vote for Amber he decided to go after Kieth. This also explained that he possibly tried to get Amber to join up with Him and the rest of Kucha to no avail... 2. He also discussed the Ogakor alliance and from this it was kinda confirmed for me what I thought last night... When Colby stated something to the effect that "this was Amber won't know" I knew that she was sweat talked into staying alligned with Ogakor. It also confirmed for me that Liz and Roger have secretly joined Ogakor and the real alliance is currently... Colby
Tina
Kieth
Liz and
Roger C/K/T have convinced Amber that she is still part of the alliance but in fact she is likely their next target. Now I see only 2 scenerios in which Amber gets saved next week and they are as follows... 1. Liz and Roger (especially since Liz and Amber seem to be friendly) convince Amber to vote with them against Colby or Kieth (if Colby wins immunity) and use the tie-breaker ruling to their advantage. In this manner Amber, Liz and Roger would be guaranteed final 3 (barring immunity) and likely Liz and Roger are final 2. Though I am not sure if Liz and Roger, let alone Amber, are smart enough to see this. 2. Tina and Kieth are really alligned with Liz and Roger and plan on getting rid of Colby next, and then Amber. Since Colby is the strongest they may target him prior to targetting Amber, if he doesn't win immunity. Now this scenerio would actaully be stupid for Kieth and Tina as Kieth has way more previous votes than Liz or Roger. That means that if Kieth loses immunity once down to final 4, he would go first, then Tina (barring immunity) with Liz and Roger as final 2. The third and likely scenerio is that Kieth, Colby, Tina, Roger and Liz vote off Amber next week. C/K/T will have her think that Liz is next giving Liz another vote against her (just in case) and then all 5 vote for AMber. This is unfortunate as Amber is being an itiot, as is Liz and Roger. We thought that they may have been smart enough to ajoin this week but the more I think about it I feel the real alliance is Kieth, Tina, Liz and Roger. Anyway, what Colby said last night about "that way Amber won't suspect anything" was regarding having Liz and Roger vote for Amber. That way she would not suspect that they were in an alliance with Colby/Kieth and Tina. This is very smart but from this point Liz and Roger (unless they ARE in an alliance of 4 with Tina and Kieth) would have to know that they would be gone the next two after Amber. Knowing this wouldn't they try to get Amber to join up and be guaranteed final 3 (barring immunity)? So... It comes down to it being as follows in EP11... 1. Amber (if she won immunity then who knows)
2. Colby
3. Or if Colby won immunity and Kucha joined with Amber then Kieth or Tina (unlikely) I say it is between Amber and Colby. In both cases the whole Colby and Amber hooking up thing would only have 3 days at best, before they could meet back up at the resort (under the observation of Jerri). That very well may be what happens. Colby or AMber next with the other to follow three days later. For this to be true the real alliance would have to be Tina/Kieth/Liz and Roger, which I suspect is possible. It would be stupid for Kieth, but who ever said he was the sharpest tool in the shed. Kieth would be forced into winning immunity once down to final 4. Also, last night when his fire bucket started to go up, why didn't he run and get another bucket of water just in case? See, not smart!!! Anyway, there is one other piece of spoiler that we have all discounted since Ogakor should have been able to just pick off Kucha once at a time... That is Alicia stating... "GO KUCHA"!!! The more I think about it, the more Liz or Roger winning the million seems correct. Not only ALicia's comment but also Jerri's regarding paybacks... GO KUCHA!!! Respectfully, Conspiracy Jim
"Ya, sure we went to the moon"!!!
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-06-01, 11:44 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Nick on Good Morning AMerica common logic?!?" |
Just my personal opinion, but I think it is very possible. And because of Liz and Rodg voting for Amber I think Amber will go ahead and stick with her group, since they have not voted for her, even if she did feel betrayed when Jerri was voted out. I think that unless something unusual happens, Liz or Rodger is gone this week, and I hate to say that. The only other thing that I can see as a possibility is Colby being voted out, only because he is so much of a threat to everyone. BT and KKK may turn on him for that reason, but right now I doubt that it will happen this week. For CJ, I am not sure I understand the logic behind you believing for certain now that Liz and Rodger are part of the C/T/K alliance. Nothing that Nick said leads me to believe that at all. I think that Nicks stumble about Amber was probably merely because that is who the three had agreed to vote for. And as for the statement by Colby about not letting Amber know who they were voting for, why does this lead you to belileve that C/T/K are alligned with Liz and Rodger? All that this tells me is that they are alligned with each other. I think(sadly) that Liz and Rodger are on the outside of that one, and I see no good logical evidence to prove otherwise at this point. I wish I did, believe me.
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theclerk 16 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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04-06-01, 11:58 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Nick on Good Morning AMerica common logic?!?" |
I agree with MDSkinner: much as I like Rodger and Liz, Amber's not smart enough to join with them. My guess is Rodger and Liz go, then Amber,
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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-06-01, 12:14 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Nick on Good Morning AMerica common logic?!?" |
We are definitely of one mind on this topic. Plus, not that I am a huge proponent of the "air-time theory", but how many times could they put Lis's face on the screen in Ep 10? It was like watching The Elisabeth Show...leads me to believe she's gone soon, or they're prepping her to win. I'd love to believe the latter, but don't see it happening unless she pulls a "Super Kelly" scenario like last year. Not impossible, and we do have JP's quote that "Lis kicks butt in the challenges" which we sure haven't seen yet. It's about the only way this show is going to hold my interest other than watching their stuff float away because they weren't smart enough to move the camp out of possible harm's way when they had the chance.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-06-01, 07:29 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Nick on Good Morning AMerica common logic?!?" |
Actually, someone explained earlier that Jeff said "Liz kicks butt" not "Liz kicks butt in challenges". These are two very different things. Even if it was the case that she kicks butt, it does not mean that she necessarily wins two or three or even one challenge. She may just do well overall in them.
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Lightmage81 225 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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04-06-01, 11:57 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Nick on Good Morning AMerica + common logic?!?" |
LAST EDITED ON 04-06-01 AT 12:17 PM (EST)Hi good day to all. This is my newbie post so GO EASY on me ok..... anyway i dont watch the early show (cause i live half the world away, literally)
however i still download the clips off the CBS website. Anyway I've noticed something which may have some value. During the segment where the ousted survivor is asked viewers questions, they show this grid thingy with the survivor's faces on it then they proceed to cross out the latest victim's face. Every week the grid is rearranged, however Liz's pic is always at the top-leftmost corner. (since the merger at least) Could this mean she is the winner or is it a coincidence or is MB just blowing smoke up our arses? I go with the latter but your thoughts are welcome............(even if they are to flame me  ) Lightmage81 PS. what did you all think when Rich imitated Liz.......? EDIT: I just relised that most of the pics stay at the same place....
and that only one pic is move at a time.....
so maybe this was just wishful thinking on my part )
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nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-06-01, 12:42 PM (EST)
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9. "What if.....Keith's next" |
I have a scenario where I think maybe Keith goes next. Bear with me here..... Things we know: - Amber and Liz were bonding.
- Amber and Colby are still close. And may be getting closer, as we saw Colby subtly convincing Amber that buying that glass of river water wasn't so dumb/unlucky after all.
- Colby is still making the smarter strategic moves (didn't even do much bidding on any of the food except for the protein bar.
- Keith had the RC won, but got cocky and blew it.
- Keith didn't take his backpack to TC. That seemed arrogant to Nick. What about the others?
- Keith and Tina have been in a strong alliance, but we've also seen Tina turn on her friend MadDog, and her tribemate Jerri. OK, so what if.....Colby renews and strengthens his alliance with Amber, then does the same with Tina. But then convinces the girls that Keith is also an IC threat, having won it twice in a row. Then Tina and Amber get with Liz and Rodger and convince them of the same thing. Keith goes, 5-1 (Keith voting for Colby) (Not an official prediction, but food for thought)
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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-06-01, 01:46 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: What if.....Keith's next" |
The thing that I feel really makes it obvious that Liz and Roger have formed an alliance with at a minimum Tina and Kieth (plus Colby comes along for now), is the following...1. At the Episode 9 Council Liz did not seem to be afraid that she was a goner. Why? If you were her and have seen two of your five Kucharians voted off one at a time, plus you knew that they were targeting Nick (then he won immunity) wouldn't you feel that either you or Roger were next. Of course you would, unless you have already come to an agreement with three of the original Ogakor alliance members. 2. We have been shown Roger and especially Liz working on Tina and Kieth. We then saw Kieth and Tina working on Colby. Now Colby knew that if he went along with voting off Jerri in Episode 9 that he might be in jeopardy of being voted off himself. That is why he made the comment to Kieth in the tent about "this is alot of money man". He wanted to get rid of Jerri as well but was worried about something. The only something that makes sense is that Liz, Roger and Nick might have voted for him, instead of Jerri like they did. Rightfully thinking he would have been in jeopardy as it would have been a tie against Jerri and Colby of 3-3 with Liz getting 2 votes. Then the revote where Jerri and Colby can't vote. Amber would have voted off Colby. Now, the only way that Colby might have been really worried about this is if Liz and Roger knew that he, Kieth and Tina were planning on voting for Jerri. There would have been no other reason for Liz and Roger to vote for Colby over Jerri unless they might have been put into a winning position by doing this. Colby should have been and was worried. 3. Alicia did make that obscure "Go Kucha" comment. Of course we all discounted it since Ogakor was in a position to pick off Kucha one at a time. Now we see that Kucha has a very good shot, if they take it, at winning the whole damn thing. Maybe Alicia knows something we don't. Go Kucha!!! 4. Jerri made the comment about getting revenge and the power of being on the jury. It is logical to assume that this means that the final two are an Ogakor and a Kucha. Possibly this even points at Kieth being against a Kucha and Jerri picking the Kucha out of revenge. In fact Kieth versus Roger makes alot or sense right now if you think about it. If it was down to the three of them (Liz, Roger and Kieth) and Kieth won he would likely pick Roger over Liz to be up against for the money. If Roger won the oney then he would pick Liz (though for the oney it would make sense for him to be against Kieth. Same goes for Liz. Now, if it got down to a final three of Tina/Kieth and a Kucha and then that Kucha won immunity, likely Kieth would be picked. Either way, Jerri's comment may mean more than most think. 5. Liz and Roger seem to be voting with Colby/Kieth/Tina until last night. Now Colby/Kieth and Tina would not want Amber to know that she might be next. To keep this from happening, instead if having Liz and Roger vote against Nick (thus Amber would know something is up) they instead vote for her. Thus she would feel that Liz and Roger are against her (if this is true then it was a very smart move by T/K/C. Not to mention that scenerio matches what Colby said last night about "that way Aber won't know" or something like that. If someone has the specific comment please add it. Anyway, I can see Tina and Kieth alligning with the nice people (Roger and Liz) to ensure final 4. Now possibly this was a ploy concocted by Colby but I don't think so. What we have been shown is Colby/Kieth and Tina being alligned and thus we think that Kucha will be picked off one by one but... MB is not always going to show us the truth. If Roger and Liz are alligned with Tina and Roger then I can see Colby going soon. Maybe Aber goes next and then Colby but possibly Colby goes first (immunity may be the difference). It just seemed that Amber had NO IDEA about Jerri getting the boot. This means that she is not part of the core group or is not part of it at all. Now everyone may be right and Liz and Roger are picked off one at a time but not likely as there is so uch evidence pointing at something else. The most important being that logically it was bad for Kieth/Colby and Tina to boot Jerri unless there was something else going on. The only somethings could be Amber is with them and wated to boot Jerri (I don't think so) or there is an alliance that we are not seeing (Kieth/Colby/Tina/Liz and Roger). Conspiracy Jim
"Ya, sure we went to the moon"!!!
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-06-01, 02:20 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: What if.....Keith's next" |
>1. At the Episode 9
>Council Liz did not seem
>to be afraid that she
>was a goner. She did actually say that she felt she was a goner. Just before going to TC she and Rodger both said that very thing.
>2. We have been shown
>Roger and especially Liz working
>on Tina and Kieth.
>We then saw Kieth and
>Tina working on Colby.
>Now Colby knew that if
>he went along with voting
>off Jerri in Episode 9
>that he might be in
>jeopardy of being voted off
>himself. That is why
>he made the comment to
>Kieth in the tent about
>"this is alot of money
>man". He wanted to
>get rid of Jerri as
>well but was worried about
>something. The only something
>that makes sense is that
>Liz, Roger and Nick might
>have voted for him, instead
>of Jerri like they did.
> Rightfully thinking he would
>have been in jeopardy as
>it would have been a
>tie against Jerri and Colby
>of 3-3 with Liz getting
>2 votes. Then the
>revote where Jerri and Colby
>can't vote. Amber would
>have voted off Colby.
>Now, the only way that
>Colby might have been really
>worried about this is if
>Liz and Roger knew that
>he, Kieth and Tina were
>planning on voting for Jerri.
> There would have been
>no other reason for Liz
>and Roger to vote for
>Colby over Jerri unless they
>might have been put into
>a winning position by doing
>this. Colby should have
>been and was worried.
I think that Colby was not worried because he knew full well that they did not like Jerri. They had put all of their votes for Jerri the week(3 days on the show) before, and she had done nothing to improve her attitude in that time. I think it was obvious to us all that they would vote for her, strictly out of dislike and I think Colby was smart enough to see that as well.
>3. Alicia did make that
>obscure "Go Kucha" comment.
>Of course we all discounted
>it since Ogakor was in
>a position to pick off
>Kucha one at a time.
> Now we see that
>Kucha has a very good
>shot, if they take it,
>at winning the whole damn
>thing. Maybe Alicia knows
>something we don't. Go
>Kucha!!!
Maybe, but it seems to me that she would say this just because she would like to see Kucha performing well. I don't necessarily think that this is an actual indication of things to come, though I hope yous suspicions are correct. >4. Jerri made the comment
>about getting revenge and the
>power of being on the
>jury. It is logical
>to assume that this means
>that the final two are
>an Ogakor and a Kucha. I disagree. I think that Jerri's comment could mean a number of different things when it comes right down to it. If there are two Oga's for the final two and they were Amber and Colby(not likely but possible) she would easily be able to get revenge on Colby by voting for Amber. You could do this scenario with a number of cobinations just with Oga's in the final. I don't think her comment eludes to a Kuch being in the final at all, and I don't think that it is logical to assume as much. Again I hope you are right in your assessment.
>5. Liz and Roger seem
>to be voting with Colby/Kieth/Tina
>until last night.
Last week was the only time that they had ever voted the same. So how do they seem to be voting with C/K/T >Now
>Colby/Kieth and Tina would not
>want Amber to know that
>she might be next.
>To keep this from happening,
>instead if having Liz and
>Roger vote against Nick (thus
>Amber would know something is
>up) they instead vote for
>her. Thus she would
>feel that Liz and Roger
>are against her (if this
>is true then it was
>a very smart move by
>T/K/C. Not to mention
>that scenerio matches what Colby
>said last night about "that
>way Aber won't know" or
>something like that. If
>someone has the specific comment
>please add it. This is a possibility. And if it is true it is a smart move on K/C/T part. Especially so that Amber has a few votes in case there is ever a tie of some sort. This is good speculation and it will be interesting to see if it pans out.
>
>Anyway, I can see Tina and
>Kieth alligning with the nice
>people (Roger and Liz) to
>ensure final 4. Now
>possibly this was a ploy
>concocted by Colby but I
>don't think so. What
>we have been shown is
>Colby/Kieth and Tina being alligned
>and thus we think that
>Kucha will be picked off
>one by one but... MB
>is not always going to
>show us the truth.
>If Roger and Liz are
>alligned with Tina and Roger
>then I can see Colby
>going soon. Maybe Aber
>goes next and then Colby
>but possibly Colby goes first
>(immunity may be the difference).
> It just seemed that
>Amber had NO IDEA about
>Jerri getting the boot.
>This means that she is
>not part of the core
>group or is not part
>of it at all.
>Now everyone may be right
>and Liz and Roger are
>picked off one at a
>time but not likely as
>there is so uch evidence
>pointing at something else.
I think that at this point there is just as much evidence pointing to Liz and Rodger being gone as there is for them being alligned with K/C/T. It seems to me that most of the evidence in either direction is strictly speculation, which is far from factual evidence.
>
>The most important being that logically
>it was bad for Kieth/Colby
>and Tina to boot Jerri
>unless there was something else
>going on. The only
>somethings could be Amber is
>with them and wated to
>boot Jerri (I don't think
>so) or there is an
>alliance that we are not
>seeing (Kieth/Colby/Tina/Liz and Roger).
Or maybe now that Jerri is gone, Amber is OK with it and will stick with her Oga tribe anyway just to ensure herself a final four spot, especially now that Liz and Rodger have voted against her.
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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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04-06-01, 04:47 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: What if.....Keith's next" |
She did actually say that she felt she was a goner. Just before going to TC she and Rodger both said that very thing.1. That was in the editing. You saw her say that during the editing in which she "pleaded" with Tina and Kieth about not voting for them. I was talking about AT the tribal council. Jeff even asked her a related question and she did not seem worried, as if she knew that it was going to be Jerri?!!!? I think that Colby was not worried because he knew full well that they did not like Jerri. They had put all of their votes for Jerri the week(3 days on the show) before, and she had done nothing to improve her attitude in that time. I think it was obvious to us all that they would vote for her, strictly out of dislike and I think Colby was smart enough to see that as well. 2. We saw that Colby was worried and rightfully so. Were you getting a sandwich during the Kieth/Tina/Colby tent scene. Colby had to be convinced by K and T to vote against Jerri. This was obviously against his better judgement bacause he knew that he might be a target IF Rober and Liz were lying. Regarding Alicia's comment you state: Maybe, but it seems to me that she would say this just because she would like to see Kucha performing well. I don't necessarily think that this is an actual indication of things to come, though I hope yous suspicions are correct. 3. This comment was made by her way after the show finished and a winner was known (don't believe the whole lock box thing). Likely she would not make that comment if Kucha was voted off one by one until Ogakor was the final 4. It possibly even points to at least one Kucha making the final 2... logically. In regards to Jerri's payback comment you state: I disagree. I think that Jerri's comment could mean a number of different things when it comes right down to it. If there are two Oga's for the final two and they were Amber and Colby(not likely but possible) she would easily be able to get revenge on Colby by voting for Amber. You could do this scenario with a number of cobinations just with Oga's in the final. I don't think her comment eludes to a Kucha being in the final at all, and I don't think that it is logical to assume as much. Again I hope you are right in your assessment. 4. I would agree that if it was down to Amber and one of the Ogakors then your scenerio could hold true but that is unlikely. If it is any of the other two Ogakor then she would not make that statement as she knows who voted against her (they are informed after they get the boot). For her "payback" comment to hold true then one of the final two would have to be either Colby, Kieth or Tina (most likely Kieth) with the other being Amber or one of the kuchas. It's all logic. In regards to Liz and Roger voting along with C/T/K you state: Last week was the only time that they had ever voted the same. So how do they seem to be voting with C/K/T 5. Along with all of the other evidence everything points at this being true. The fact that they voted for Aber and not Colby or Kieth also points this way. Liz and Roger have no grief with Amber, even though she WAS aligned with Jerri. We saw throughout the show Liz and Aber getting close but come Council Kucha votes for her? The only way this makes sense is if Liz and Roger are alligned with at a inimum, Kieth and Tina (since Colby had immunity they voted the only non-alliance way they could besides Nick). If they had voted for Nick then Amber might know something was going on. Now if Liz and Roger knew that Nick was gone (as it seemed they all did-even Nick) then why vote for Amber instead of Kieth, Tina or Nick. And in fact if they are alligned with Tina and Kieth then why not vote for Nick. The answer, because T and K want Amber to believe that she is safe. This is a possibility. And if it is true it is a smart move on K/C/T part. Especially so that Amber has a few votes in case there is ever a tie of some sort. This is good speculation and it will be interesting to see if it pans out. 6. Finally you agree with something. If you agree with this then some of the other points must make sense to you as well as they tie in. I think that at this point there is just as much evidence pointing to Liz and Rodger being gone as there is for them being alligned with K/C/T. It seems to me that most of the evidence in either direction is strictly speculation, which is far from factual evidence. 7. I will not totally disagree with this one but I think there is a bit more pointing at some sort of alliance that we have not seen. Jef's "mole" comment. Alicia's "Go Kucha" comment. Nick's comments on Good Morning America. Jerri's comments about "payback". Jeff Probst's comment about Liz kicking butt in the challenges which has not been seen yet. Etc. Etc. Etc. Conspiracy Jim
"Ya, sure we went to the moon"!!!
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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04-06-01, 05:12 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: What if.....Keith's next" |
>>1. That was in the editing. You saw her say that during the
>>editing in which she "pleaded" with Tina and Kieth about not
>>voting for them. I was talking about AT the tribal council.
>>Jeff even asked her a related question and she did not seem
>>worried, as if she knew that it was going to be Jerri?!!!?I will have to go back and watch that episode, but at the TC when Jeff asked the question it sounded to me like she expected to be voted off. >>2. We saw that Colby was worried and rightfully so. Were you
>>getting a sandwich during the Kieth/Tina/Colby tent scene.
>>Colby had to be convinced by K and T to vote against Jerri.
>>This was obviously against his better judgement bacause he
>>knew that he might be a target IF Rober and Liz were lying. I must have been getting a sandwich at the time because what I saw was that Colby was worried about breaking up the Oga alliance, not about getting voted off. I think he was looking into the future and not at the current TC. I could be wrong, and like you say I may have been getting a sandwich but that was how I took it. >>3. This comment was made by her way after the show finished
>> and a winner was known (don't believe the whole lock box
>>thing). Likely she would not make that comment if Kucha was
>>voted off one by one until Ogakor was the final 4. It possibly
>>even points to at least one Kucha making the final 2...
>>logically. It was made after the show was finished, just like all of the comments all of the survivors have made. I do not think that a comment like this means that Kucha wins. I think it means that she had "team spirit" and continues to. I think that it means that if a Kucha does make the final two that she will vote for them. But I do not see how you can logically deduce that it necessitates that a Kucha makes the final 2. Please tell me how it does. I believe that Alicia liked her tribe for the most part and that she would have said this regardless of whether one made the final four or not. I may be dead wrong about this, but I do think that Alicia liked her tribe and I think that her saying this has no meaning to the game. I hope I am wrong.
>>4. I would agree that if it was down to Amber and one of the
>>Ogakors then your scenerio could hold true but that is
>>unlikely. If it is any of the other two Ogakor then she would
>>not make that statement as she knows who voted against her
>>(they are informed after they get the boot). For her "payback"
>>comment to hold true then one of the final two would have to
>>be either Colby, Kieth or Tina (most likely Kieth) with the
>>other being Amber or one of the kuchas. It's all logic. Agreed. However at this point I believe that Amber very well could make the final two, and it very well could be with Colby, Keith or Tina. >>5. Along with all of the other evidence everything points at
>>this being true. The fact that they voted for Aber and not
>>Colby or Kieth also points this way. The fact that they voted for Amber tells that they were probably hoping that Keith, Tina and Colby might vote for her since she was alligned with Jerri. I may be wrong but you must admit that this is a possibility and is certainly logical. >>Liz and Roger have no
>>grief with Amber, even though she WAS aligned with Jerri. We
>>saw throughout the show Liz and Aber getting close but come
>>Council Kucha votes for her? The only way this makes sense is
>>if Liz and Roger are alligned with at a inimum, Kieth and Tina
>>(since Colby had immunity they voted the only non-alliance way
>>they could besides Nick). If they had voted for Nick then
>>Amber might know something was going on. Now if Liz and Roger
>>knew that Nick was gone (as it seemed they all did-even Nick)
>>then why vote for Amber instead of Kieth, Tina or Nick. And in
>>fact if they are alligned with Tina and Kieth then why not
>>vote for Nick. The answer, because T and K want Amber to
>>believe that she is safe. As I said before I think they did this merely hoping that Keith, Tina and Colby would possibly vote for her. I doubt that they expected it, but they were hoping. >>6. Finally you agree with something. If you agree with this
>>then some of the other points must make sense to you as well
>>as they tie in. Sorry to be so disagreeable, I am just trying to bring all sides to this thing in. What you say is not the final word and is not the epitimy of logic. There are still many possibilities to this show. I think all of your points make good sense and could very well be dead on, but I also see many other possibilities and see no reason why I should not at least bring them up for others to ponder. >>7. I will not totally disagree with this one but I think there
>>is a bit more pointing at some sort of alliance that we have
>>not seen. Jef's "mole" comment. Alicia's "Go Kucha" comment.
>>Nick's comments on Good Morning America. Jerri's comments
>>about "payback". Jeff Probst's comment about Liz kicking butt
>>in the challenges which has not been seen yet. Etc. Etc. Etc. You say there is more evidence pointing to the alliance, but I am not sure how. Jeffs mole comment - purely speculative. Could have been Nick and he may have an impact when it comes down to the jury voting. Alicia's go Kucha comment - Could be something. Might not be. If she had Kucha pride going through her the whole time, it might not matter whether they win or not. When I hear that my alma mater is playing I always say "Go Bearcats", does that mean they are going to win. I wear a Bearcats hat even after they do lose. I do not see her comment guaranteeing anything just yet, but I will ackknowledge that it could. Nicks comments on the early show told me nothing. We took them two completely different ways. Jerri's payback comment, again could be something. Depends on who is in the final two, and all that this tells me is that one of the Oga's is definitely in the final two. Who is the other one, I do not know. Jeff's Liz comment seems meaningful. Though many have speculated that it did not mean that she won any IC's, just did well in them. I am not sure, but this seems like your best piece of evidence so far. All the rest seems speculative more so than logical. If you have more please post, but as of now you have far from changed my opinion.
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volmel 362 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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04-06-01, 06:16 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: What if.....Keith's next" |
MD, only thing I would add to your post is the trouble Tina and Colby took to reassure Amber. When Amber was sitting by herself looking rather alone, Tina patted her on the back as she walked by, which I took to mean reassurance. Colby held her hand and teased with her that they did good on their bidding cause they were the only 2 that didn't get sick. Which to me was his way of flirting with/reassuring her. All of this makes me think they are letting her know that Ogakor is still a tribe and will stick together to vote off the rest of the Kuchas.Owen clarified his "Liz kicks butt" spoiler in another thread. He said "Liz kicks butt", not "Liz kicks butt in the CHALLENGES". I think I understood that correctly... Also, last week, Tina TOLD Liz she or Rodger were going to have to go since Nick got immunity. It was after Colby, Keith and Tina talked that they decided to kick out Jerri. I think it was because they couldn't take her anymore, and will return to voting off Kucha. 
Come on Tina, do Tennessee proud
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Annadad 26 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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04-07-01, 09:42 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: What if.....Keith's next" |
MD, I agree with you that there isn't enough evidence to conclude that Lis and Roger are in an alliance with K/T/C and the only thing I have to add is regarding whether and why Lis might have known that Jerri was getting booted and not her.I agree with CJ that she did know she wasn't getting booted but not because she was in an alliance with R/K/T/and C. Quite simply, the three Ogies voting for Jerri without getting Amber in on the plan were taking a risk. Tina, Keith and Colby only add up to three votes. Nick, Roger and Lis comprised 3 votes. Then you have 2 more votes in the hands of Amber and Jerri. Out of 8 votes, K/T/and C could only be sure of three votes. They knew that Jerri and Amber were voting for Lis as had been planned but they couldn't be sure what Nick, Roger and Lis would do. Lis had made it clear when Alicia got voted out that she wanted Jerri out and knew there was trouble between Keith, Tina and Jerri. The Ogies would have approached Lis to let her and her Kuchas in on the surpise twist to vote out Jerri, knowing that Lis would be open to that. There was no need to form any lasting alliance with Lis or Roger just to be sure that teh Kuchas didn't unintentionally screw up the Jerri ousting. At TC, Lis answered JP's questions saying in effect, "you may think you know what is happening but you would be wrong" This is an excellent description of Jerri's situation that night. she figured Lis was gone for sure and that she and Colby were headed for the final two in time. She was wrong. Had Jerri not been so complacent, she might have foiled the plan to oust her. I think Lis knew what was in store for Jerri and that explains her relative calm at TC. I think it is jumping to conclusions to then presume that Lis is now allied with K/T/C/R just becasue she knew she was safe when they booted Jerri. The fact that Lis and Roger voted for Amber and Amber hung with K/T/and C to vote off Nick is further proof that no such alliance exists. The idea that T and K convinced Lis and Roger to vote for Amber despite their supposed alliance in order to fool Amber or hide that alliance just doesn't seem to make sense. What would be the purpose? If Keith and Tina and temporarily Colby are in an alliance with Roger and Lis then they have 5 votes and are in an unbeatable majority. They would have no need to hide or fool anybody. They could just vote off who they want when they want. In fact, I don't think they even need Colby. Even if every one not in the K/T/R/L alliance banded together, it would be C/N/A vs K/T/R/L, 3-4 in favor of the alliance CJ proposes exists. Why was there a need for R/L to vote for Amber? Lets say they didn't and the alliance was exposed to all, what could Colby and Amber do about it?
Maybe my math is off 'cause I certainly respect CJ's analysis.
Perhaps we should lay off the pure logic because these people may be acting based on motivations which escape the camera. Certainly, voting off Jerri was not logical but they did it none the less.
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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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04-06-01, 05:41 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: What if.....Keith's next" |
I have been thinking of this too.The arrogance of no backpack: yes, others would notice, particularly since Nick said everyone else took theirs, even though all knew Nick would get the boot. And it's not as though Keith's arrogance is a new thing. I don't care for jerri, but there is truth to that accusation. Jeff V. noticed it too. There is also the pouting. I kept noticing the shots of Keith during the auction: he had such a put-out pouty look on his face when he got outbid. Rodger with the cheesburger, and Liz/Tina with the turkey dinner. Especially that, because Tina was going against him and I bet that bothered him. Again, big pout when Colby won IC. Not to mention the arrogance of tossing his bucket thinking he had won, and then the fire pail dropped (served him right). And, I don't have the show on tape, but I know there were many scenes of physically bonding - hugging, backslaps, etc etc. The only one I never saw included is Keith. As we know, there are no accidental shots in the show we see. Nick said that there was a lot more food in the auction. We saw scenes that included a clear shot of Keiths annoyed face. We need someone to dislike, and so do the players. I have liked Keith ok, mainly because he was Jerri's rival, and I wanted her out. Now he is becoming annoying. I believe next ep will feature anti-Keith sentiment from the others. But, is he being set up for a quick boot? Or as just someone to root against? For sure, we need some mystery next ep. MB didn't even try to hide the Nick boot. (oh, one little measly little comment from Amber that she could join the Kuchas - at least we know that she has a mind for that to cross!)
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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04-07-01, 00:08 AM (EST)
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19. "WHY Keith's next..." |
I was thinking about this yesturday after the show and put together a 7 point theory for why Keith will go in ep11.I know a lot of people feel that Keith is safe this week primarily because of one or more of the following a) Keith is one of the Ogrefour, b) Keith is secretly a part of a GGA, c) Keith is in the aboriginal photo and probaly at least in the final 4, or d) if Amber did turn on the Ogre's, Colby would be the more likely target. Well I won't totally discount any of those... and they certainly could be right, but using my seven point argument I believe Keith will be next week's victim instead. Point #1, Keith is had a little party today... now the timing certainly meant he wasn't going this week... but we all know that it is not unusual for contestant to disappear when they know they will be leaving. I have always felt Keith was working his 15 minutes a lot more (and arguably a lot better) than his fellow contestant... some see this as a sign he winds up winning. I on the other hand have always thought he was trying to milk it for all it was worth while he was still in contention...since he doesn't win. Point #2, Amber is feeling a bit left out of the whole process. Tina and Colby are trying real hard to make her feel nice and at home... meanwhile Mr Sensitive is singing, "ding dong the wicked witch is dead"... and going around like he just won the stinking lottery. All of this can not be totally lost even on the dimber one. Point #3, Keith should have one the last IC... if he had of kept on working instead of trying body english to make the ballance beam actually fall... that would have made 3 of 4 IC, and it would be argued he is more dangerous than Colby in that department. Point #4, Keith is an arrogant SOB... take the backpack thing... not a smart move... and not endearing to anyone... even his Ogre buddies. Point #5, Who forced them to vote off Jerri before it was safe to do so? Keith. What is the appropriate punishment for that... the same treatment in return... once it's safe. Point #6, Does Tina want to try and compete against both Keith and Colby for the final immunity... not if she can keep Amber in line... Also who can she keep in line better Keith or Colby... I say Colby hands down! Point #7, Well... I really had a good point here, but it was kinda really related to another one... so I don't guess I really have seven... unless you include the fact that it supports the order for my PTTE thread... So how could this happen? Easy actually... Amber decides to switch sides and join her new kucha buddies, and unless he wins IC her first target would be Keith... (Keith and Colby are equally good targets with their prior vote totals... I just feel she still likes Colby a whole lot better... plus there's gotta be a reason Jerri hates her). Amber talks Tina and Colby into removing Keith now that they can "safely" do so (reasons 2-6 above)... if they disagree she takes her plan to kucha and it still works even if the Ogres target her (she has less votes than Keith or Colby so in a 3-3 tie she wins). This especially works if the T/C alliance is stronger than the T/K alliance as I have always theorized. Finally it's in Ambers best interest to play both sides to the final 5, but to move any further she needs to make a new best friend... regardless of how you slice it... Keith ain't it.
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