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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
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"Red Herring Spoiler? Source Code Revisited"
munson 1314 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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03-31-01, 10:33 PM (EST)
 
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"Red Herring Spoiler? Source Code Revisited" |
I know. I know. It's been discussed, analyzed, debated, debunked and embraced in several previous threads. But now that Jerri's gone and the Kucha slaughter is in question, the context within which it's analyzed is a little different.A brief recap: The HTML source code for the Final Words page on the CBS website listed the remaining castaways in alphabetical order, except for Amber and Liz. The logical conclusion, if this was indeed a legit website blunder, was that Amber and Liz were the final 2; they would have no final words as the winner would be announced live following the airing of E14 and not in the Outback. They wouldn't HAVE final words yet. After searching past threads on the topic, it seems most felt the Source Code spoiler was an obvious red herring (SDawg's opposition to the majority opinion duly noted), ala GervaseX and Fake F4. Following Jeff's boot in E7, this was an obvious attempt by MB to convince us that the Kucha would not be Pagonged. The timing of the discovery of this spoiler was just too convenient. We were fooled last year. We weren't about to be fooled again! The only thing this spoiler did was seem to insure that both Liz and Amber would be safe for a few more episodes, at least until E10 like Gerv, to make it more believable. Some felt it meant that neither Amber nor Liz made the F2. Others offered that it could be partially true; one of the two made it to the end. Personally, I believed it to be a red herring, planted by MBP. What I didn't understand was, why bother? I mean, who was the intended target of this spoiler? Well, it was us, and those like us - the internet, web site, message board crowd - not the general public. But we are a suspicious, untrusting, and, for the most part, intelligent group who, after GervX and FF4, would dismiss this as a lame attempt to distract us from our real mission: outwit, outplay and outlast MB and spoil the stupid show. But he would have to know that we wouldn't buy it. So again, why bother? At what point, if any, would we actually start to believe that it could be legitimate? How far would Liz and Amber need to go before the board opinion regarding the spoiler would turn from "no way" to "just maybe"? Well, what's happened since the source code was discovered? E8 - Alicia's gone following a vote along tribal lines. No surprise to most.
E9 - Jerri's somewhat surprising, but wholly satisfying, boot. I didn't expect Jerri to go quite this soon but had come to believe that Liz would be in the game longer. So, two episodes later and both Liz and Amber still around. Hmmm, should we assign any more credibility to this as an actual spoiler? I'm not ready to yet. What would it take for me to reconsider? First, Liz would need to outlast Colby, then make the F4. At the start of E8 it looked like Colby was a lock for F3 with either K/T or J/A. The game was in his control. Now at E10, his position has been compromised. Amber could defect to Kucha in retaliation for the betrayal of Jerri or K/T could sacrifice him for the GGA. He's a huge immunity threat to everyone who should be gunning for him at TC's. Liz in the F4 no longer seems such an upset but it doesn't matter how she gets there; that's not the point of this thread. For the source code spoiler to gain widespread credibility, both Liz and Amber need to make it that far. Once that happens, many on this board will proclaim the spoiler to be the real deal. And that's why MB bothered. Because just when we think we've got it all figured out, GOTCHA!!!, Liz gets the boot in E13. K/T/A move on to the grand finale. As a longtime lurker and infrequent poster since last August, I know non-fact based speculation is an invitation to fire up the flame throwers. I know enough to fear the wrath of the mighty clown. But as I have seen the source code spoiler mentioned a few times recently in other posts, I wanted to try to analyze it logically from the point of view of what it was intended to do, if it truly was a planted red herring. And it is, you know. Sorry Dawg. You nailed the Jerri boot, much respect, but don't think the Liz/Amber showdown is gonna happen. Your turn....
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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04-01-01, 04:33 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Red Herring Spoiler? Source Code Revisited" |
You might be totally right, munson. And I appreciate you noting my positions on the issue.I have said, and will say again, that if Lis/Amber are the Final Two, it is probably in SPITE of the Source Code Theory and not because of it. Yes, some will say it's a genuine mistake, some will say "this was the hint MB promised us all along" (ala the Gervase-X pic and who was cut out of it). Right now I'm having a couple of problems with a Lis/Amber Final Two. I have a hard time getting Lis there if Rodger stays in the game too much longer. Let me recap: 1) If Lis and Amber are in the Final Two, then who was #3? i.e. who was voted off? Who is it who Amber AND Lis fear that this person would be voted off and Amber or Lis would take a chance on the other? With Lis, that 3d person is likely Tina. Possibly with Amber, also (A Ogakor-majority jury is Amber's way of thinking, but I still think Lis would win this matchup). 2) Okay, if Tina is #3, then who was #4? Ah, gets interesting here. If it's Keith, that would fulfill a LOT of spoilers (including those pictures that I never give much credence to). Perhaps Tina wins IC here and Keith gets the boot in a tie?
Now the corollary to this is, I can't see Rodger being in the Final 4 (in Keith's place) and not making the Final 3. I don't see Lis voting for him, and I do see him and Lis voting for the same person. The only person right now with votes? Lis. So you'd think Amber and Tina would need to vote for Lis. And that means Lis don't make the final two. Hence, Rodger is out before the Final 4. 3) Okay, who's #5? We now have to consider things from the other direction. If Nick is #7 and Colby #6 (as I believe will happen), ignoring immunities pour le moment, then Rodger is #5. That can happen if Amber votes with Tina and Keith. It also means that Lis won immunity. That would fulfill JP's comment that Lis does well in the challenges (and so far she has not). Now here's an interesting twist on all this: If Nick wins immunity next episode, whom do we consider to be the next logical choice to go? Probably Lis! Maybe Rodger. So now I have to think that Lis is gathering some sort of suballiance to get her past this one hurdle. Who? Tina or Amber is the most likely. Maybe Lis gets Tina to get the rest of them to vote off Rodger (maybe Rodger didnt' wanna give up whatever it was for that rice). In any case, if Lis goes, the whole Lis/Amber final two is busted from the start. And if Rodger doesn't go next, and Lis doesn't go next (and Nick has immunity), then that means Colby is most likely gone. Oops, now it's 3-3 and the Kucha's remember the skin dripping off Mike's fingers. Maybe Amber makes the Final Three by winning immunity? So who does Kucha vote off? Probably Nick, since Lis and Rodger will vote together. At this time, Amber would be smart to vote Lis (she has votes in a tie). Either way She'd then need to win Final Immunity to make the Final Two. Now if it were my favorite title for a Rock Band (Amber and the Kuchas), then who would Amber want to face in the Final Two? Most likely Nick, certainly not Rodger or Lis. So if Amber makes it to Final Two from Final Four against three Kuchas, she'll very likely have Nick in the final with her. This explodes so many spoilers and theories that I don't even want to talk about it. SO what have I said in all this rambling? The farther Rodger goes, the less chances the source code theory is true. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH
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