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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-30-01, 02:54 PM (EST) "THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" OK, I will take some of the blame in us not figuring out the Jerri ouster since I was the major advocate 2 weeks ago, explaining how it was not logical for Ogakor to get rid of Jerri until at least episode 10. Now, I still feel that my logic was correct and that either Colby isn't as smart as I thought (likely) or that there is something we aren't seeing. This actually bugged me all night because I was seeing exactly what I predicted come to fruition... I came up with the possibility of Kieth getting booted because of numerous reasons that I have explained in previous threads. I also came up with the idea of the Reward Challenge being teams (prior to CBS telling us) and that Jerri WAS in the picture of the Reward Challenge (the one with Colby coming down the rope net). I saw all of this happening last night. Essentially it went like this... 1. Reward Challenge is the obstacle course - check 2. Jerri IS (yea, i'm right) paired with Colby - check 3. Jerri and Colby win - check now up until this point we were being shown that Nick was going so I knew he was safe (since MB wouldn't show us the truth just to have it happen at the end of the show) and my Kieth logic was coming together. 4. OK, Nick won immunity. Shoot, this meant that Ogakor may stay together and vote off Liz or Roger... then they started showing us Liz getting the boot. Again using the same (MB wouldn't show us the truth just to have it come true at council) logic I knew that she was saved. Once again my Kieth logic was looking good. Also, up until now we had not seen anything that would make "people talk in the morning" so it HAD to be something that happens at Tribal Council - looking good! 5. Then Amber holds up her vote and it's Liz. My jaw hit the ground as I knew then and there that Jerri was a goner. It made NO SENSE!!! Why would they give Kucha a chance to come back and win it????? Are they itiots (possibly)... Anyway, It turned out that I was correct in that an Ogakor got the boot but Jerri made zero chance. Now lets look at the logic behind why they would do this... ---------------------------------- Now it seems that these people aren't playing the game as well as I thought and actually care about who stays longer than whom. Meaning that they wanted to see Roger and Liz stay longer than Jerri. Now i'm fine with that as long as you don't give up your majority, which they DID - possibly. Now until last night it was an Ogakor 5 majority versus a 3 Kucha minority. Once Kucha was gone (now that we know that Colby, Tina and Kieth are alligned) the C, T and K alliance could have gotten rid of Jerri and then Amber and have been just about guaranteed final 3 and one of them winning the Million bucks... Now it is Colby, Kieth and Tina versus Kucha with Amber (as I explained two weeks ago) holding the power. Colby essentially just took the power away from him and handed it to amber? She at this point could walk over to Kucha and state "I think i'm next, I will join with you if you want me". They would be stupid to say "no" so of course you join up and get rid of the Ogakor three until it comes down to Kucha and Amber. Amber goes next and what was a no win situation turns into one of Kucha winning it all. NOW I ASK YOU, WHERE IS THE LOGIC IN THIS?... ------------------------------------------------- This bugged me all night. I couldn't stop thinking about it. I have actually come up with a coupld of possibilities, but all are still not as secure as just sticking with Jerri for two more weeks and then getting rid of the #####, but here they are... 1. Liz IS a sweatheart and you do not want to get rid of her or Roger before final 5. I can actually understand that IF they waitine until the right time. I actually believe that Nick would have been Ogakor's choice last night IF he had not won immunity. That possibly makes next weeks choice semi-easy in that if Nick does not win immunity then Ogakor would likely gun for him. That would be IF Amber sticks with them - why should she? So, you do not want to get rid of Liz or Roger before getting rid of Nick and Jerri so they become stupid. That's answer number one. 2. It's possible that Liz talked Kieth and Tina into allowing her to join her team, using shouldn't the nice people make it farther than the a-holes? It may have worked. Possibly Liz just joined up with C, T and K. She might have even brought Roger with her leaving Aber and Nick by themselves. This seems like the most likely scenerio to me as it would possibly explain why C, K, and T would do what they did. Thya may truly believe Liz and not fear that she would betray them. Since this is the most likely scenerio then lets look at the repercussions... - Amber is not the swing vote as long as Liz and Roger (that's if Roger is part of the alliance) do not betray their trust and God I hope they do just so they would learn a lesson. How sweat that would be. Anyway, if this is the case then it plays out as this... 1. Amber or Nick goes next 2. Then the other unless that person win immunity. If immunity is won then either Liz or Roger goes. 3. Liz or Roger 4. Liz or Roger 5. Colby 6. Kieth versus Tina - Tina wins. Now that IF Liz can be trusted to keep her alliance. - Amber goes to Kucha and begs them to join with her to vote of the remaining three Ogakor, guaranteeing Kucha the Million bucks. Now it comes down to this people... Does Liz and/or Roger want to win more than their promise. For Jerri to have gone last night Liz would have had to made a promise to C, K and T. If she is willing to betray that trust she is essentially assured a million bucks in this scenerio. ----------------------------------------------- Anyway, this is all I could come up with. It really puts Kucha in a decent position if they want to act upon it. Colby plus K/T may not have thought this one out and I hope it bites them in the ass. Go LIZ!!! Conspiracy Jim 'Ya, sure we went to the moon"!!!   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL managerr 03-30-01 1  RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL Remy617 03-30-01 2  RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL SurvivinDawg 03-30-01 3  RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL blehargh 03-30-01 4  RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL frogspit 03-30-01 5    RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL SurvivinDawg 03-30-01 7  My Name is IceCat and I'm a... IceCat 03-30-01 6    RE: My Name is IceCat and I'm a... idiotcowboy 03-30-01 8        Up Here in the Fortress of Solitude... IceCat 03-30-01 9            RE: Up Here in the Fortress of Soli... cowboyroo 03-30-01 10                Right Cowboyroo. StratPlayer 03-31-01 11        It's all logic Play2Survive 03-31-01 14            RE: It's all logic Loree 03-31-01 16            RE: It's all logic idiotcowboy 04-01-01 17                RE: It's all logic Play2Survive 04-01-01 19                    RE: It's all logic idiotcowboy 04-01-01 22  RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL cowboyroo 03-31-01 12    RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL Loree 04-01-01 20        RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL Jazzie 04-02-01 23            RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL dangerkitty 04-02-01 24                RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL Jazzie 04-02-01 25                    RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL dangerkitty 04-02-01 26            RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL Loree 04-03-01 31  RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL MDSkinner 03-31-01 13    RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL Play2Survive 03-31-01 15        RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL Lurking 04-01-01 18        RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL MDSkinner 04-01-01 21  RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL Conspiracy Jim 04-02-01 27    RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL idiotcowboy 04-02-01 29  RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL ItzLisa 04-02-01 28    RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL Play2Survive 04-02-01 30        RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL Conspiracy Jim 04-03-01 32  bump n/m my0wn 04-04-01 33

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managerr 1959 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 03-30-01, 04:11 PM (EST) 1. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" Why does everyone have to assume that there was logic involved in this? Or that K/T/C had any sort of backup plan or alliance? We know from watching Survivor, that emotion *does* get in the way. It sometimes leads to bad decisions. Rich won the last game because he and Rudy were the only ones to not make that many emotionally based decisions in the game. History shows us that this will probably come back to haunt the K/T/C alliance later. But, that does put Liz and Rodger in a jam now--they really owe the K/T/C alliance for sparing Liz, but Amber is really their only chance of Survival now.   Top

Remy617 30 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-30-01, 04:24 PM (EST) 2. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" Logic being what it is, I went merrily down the path with you, in determining no way would the B!tch get the boot this week. However, I think we may have underestimated how intense Keith disliked Jerri and may need to give him all the credit for "masterminding" her ouster. He would have had every reason to believe that after the shananigans Jerri had pulled in camp with the rice previously and her "not fair" RC comments and then with shots of Lizzie talking to Tina (and certainly Tina sharing though comments w/ him), that the odds were very favorable for Jerri to be the Kucha pick of the week. My take away was that Keith probably would have voted Jerri from the get-go since she was not protected by immunity (he has stated prior that he didn't care if he won, just as long as she didn't, right?). All this made her a more favorable choice and he was able to convince Tina that they may not get another shot, as Jerri could have gone an IC winning tear, much like we saw done in S1. From there, logic be damned, Colby had to follow suit to maintain the C/K/T voting block. I just don't see Amber going over to the Kuchas, but more likely to tuck her tail and scurry back to the Oagawhores. The outcome will be measured in how much she can insinuate herself back into her original tribe. If she plays it right, she's a lock for Final 4 and then barring IC, the Kuchas fall in order. Nick is a given, w/o IC victory, he's toast. As much as I would hate to see it happen, KJ and Prom Princess Lizzie get the boot in that order, again, without IC victory. Now, I'll throw you a curve. After two more Kuchas are gone and if Amber is still around, could K/T prove they know how to play the game and get her to vote with them against Colby?   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-01, 04:58 PM (EST) 3. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" Well, CJ, I'm in the same boat with you. As you know, we debated Jerri's ouster vs. Keith's or anyone else's. I was right that it was Jerri BUT... BUT.... BUT... for the wrong reasons. I had all these LOGICAL reasons why it SHOULD be Jerri. But it was clear that Colby wasn't aware of the good it would do him to oust Jerri. Keith has said before that he'd rather Jerri lose than he (Keith) win. MB did not show us Tina's reactions AT ALL after the "Tent Talk" with C/K/T. It is possible that she was persuaded to vote Jerri (and so convinced Colby that he was outnumbered), but more likely she is thinking her own theory (the GGA, as we call it). It was also clear that the Big Three did NOT discuss this with Amber beforehand, an integral part of my theory. Now THAT might come back to haunt them! Colby better give Amber a good and deep pickle tickle or else she might be looking elsewhere for love. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH   Top

blehargh 14 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-30-01, 05:28 PM (EST) 4. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" >- Amber is not the >swing vote as long as >Liz and Roger (that's if >Roger is part of the >alliance) do not betray their >trust and God I hope >they do just so they >would learn a lesson. >How sweat that would be. > Anyway, if this is >the case then it plays >out as this... >1. Amber or Nick goes >next >2. Then the other unless >that person win immunity. >If immunity is won then >either Liz or Roger goes. jim, i think you've got some good points. in S2 people have allowed their emotions to dictate their votes. i totally agree with your next 2 picks. but it'd be interesting to see what happens if nick is booted next, and then amber wins immunity... who gets the boot? i think that's the question we have to figure out. logically or illogically. colby, tina, keith, liz, rodger. with and without amber. who's the first to go?   Top

frogspit 95 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-30-01, 05:40 PM (EST) 5. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" What it boils down to is that there was NO logic in the illogical. The Ogies were simply NOT thinking. They have now left it purely to CHANCE that Amber will not merely vote for -any- Ogakore at the next TC as payback for the dastardly deed. They have no assurance she will stay on track now. She doesn't even have to ally with the VERY TIGHT Kuchas... she only needs to throw a wrench into it and vote for say... hmmm, her friend's nemesis, Keith, sounds about right... and the Ogies are history! What a bunch of stupid fuques. Next TC scenario = Colby-3, Nick-3, Keith-1 ... goodbye Colby, you idiot!   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-01, 07:03 PM (EST) 7. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" Methinks some of you give Amber away to the Kuchas entirely too quickly! At the very least, Nick is the logical choice to go next, with Amber voting with the Ogies. THEN the Big O tribe might have a little problem with Sorority Sister, but by THEN who knows what dynamic might play out. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-01, 06:27 PM (EST) 6. "My Name is IceCat and I'm a..." My Name is IceCat and I'm a... Logicaholic I was so damn sure that Jerri was staying put until EP11... There was just no way that anybody who was playing the game with their head would allow any chance that an Amber/Kucha combo could occur... I was truly shocked by yesterday's outcome... I am glad that Shakes didn't listen to my 'please listen to logic' speech when he was having his pre-vote indecision. I'm also at a total loss as to how to approach the rest of the episodes. I guess the standard spoiler clues of 'face time' and 'always pick against MB's comments' is the only way to go. If anyone sees me trying to ascribe logic to any one of these tribe members, please perform an 'intervention' and stop me!   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 03-30-01, 09:14 PM (EST) 8. "RE: My Name is IceCat and I'm a..." NO... NO... NO... icecat WE need you. You're NOT the only one on this board that still believes in logic and reason and truth and justice and AND the american way (unless your from canada)... There are plenty of us out here... the Nick/Lis/Rodger voters that were SURE your logic would rule, and order and sanity and the like would WIN the day. No... No... No... we must continue in the vigil to uncover and clear the path to the TRUTH... YOU are our HERO... out patron saint... our HOPE in a sea of ILLOGICAL dispair... DON'T MAKE US FIGHT ALONE... not in our darkest and most confusing our... WE NEED YOU!!! Don't make us all join Logistic Anonymous ... please   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-01, 09:33 PM (EST) 9. "Up Here in the Fortress of Solitude..." Yes... You are right of course... The burden of responsibility is heavy but I shall shoulder it... For truth... For justice... and for the American and Canadian ways... IceCat   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-30-01, 10:43 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Up Here in the Fortress of Solitude..." If they were really smart, they should have had only one of Ogies vote Jerri, create a tie and get one of the Kuchas on the vote board for a tie. They could have got someone up to 4 votes by doing that.   Top

StratPlayer 27 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-31-01, 00:21 AM (EST) 11. "Right Cowboyroo. " If C/T saw that K was going to vote Jerri no matter what they should have told K to go ahead and vote Jerri. C/T didn't have to vote for her just because Keith did. Jerri would be gone anyway. C/T/K could have still be allies in the EP10 even if they didn't vote the same in EP9. And those 4 votes for Liz sure would have come in handy if a tie happens later on. Also, if C or T make then final two, they might have gotten Jerri’s vote if they had not voted against her. No way will she vote for either of them now. In fact, She will probably do everything she can to poison the other jurors mind against every Okie except Amber.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-31-01, 09:17 AM (EST) 14. "It's all logic" Idiot and IceCat - We're all using the same human brains here, and we're all pulling logic to make our choices ..... but sometimes we just need to pull out of the player's logic, and look at "the logic of an emotional choice." I do believe that all the clues have been there for 2 weeks, suggesting logically that a Jerri-ouster was going to happen - whether emotionally based or logically based, didn't matter. We absolutely need to continue to think about what logic is going on in the remaining players oft thick skulls (what a challenge - especially this week when it's Amber we're working with). Once again, I'm trying to look for the logic of the big picture - which was clear to me last week - but this week is still looking a bit foggy. But I do agree with others that it looks like Amber is NOT making a switch and will be recovered by Colby or Tina meaning Nick is gone (ooooh, all that face time tells me soooo much) barring immunity.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-31-01, 02:28 PM (EST) 16. "RE: It's all logic" Okay the obvious choice for next week is Nick. But when does MB ever let us see the obvious? We heard the Ogakor members saying that Nick was their choice before he won the IC. Nick knew he was in trouble. Ogakor still has a one person advantage. So if Nick doesn't win the IC this week he should be gone. He even had plenty of face time on the last show. But do we trust Amber to stay with the Ogakor tribe now that her buddy has been booted by them? Don't you just wish they would let us hear more of these conversations? And like someone mentioned, where did Amber sleep in the tent the night after Jerri was booted? Is she still close to Colby? Richard Hatch said that he thinks Colby is next to go. Plus when is this flood and do they have to move their camp? They may need Nick and Colby's strength for that. Also if they are short of food they should kick out the biggest eater. Nick has been sick and was barely drinking water. Maybe they could keep him and it wouldn't affect their rice supply.   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-01-01, 00:18 AM (EST) 17. "RE: It's all logic" LAST EDITED ON 04-01-01 AT 00:22 AM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 04-01-01 AT 00:21 AM (EST) P2S- You're right we all are making our best educated guesses... it just doesn't help when at least on the surface the contestant don't appear to be At this point in the game, given the obvious ill will toward Jerri by her teammates (especially Keith and Colby). I am willing to accept at face value the possibility and even the probability that the decision to remove her from the game was based more on emotional feelings than that of logical reasoning.... but what if it wasn't? What could possibly be the motivations for the Ogre alliance? First off, ignore the kucha role in this, since other than Nick's immunity win they were only relevant due to the Ogre's actions. Second, discount Amber for now, as we have no reason to believe she was not loyal to Jerri to the end. So what were the motivations for Keith, Tina, and Colby? Keith - he definitely seemed to be the instigator in this. We all know he strongly disliked Jerri. It also appeared that he had no reluctance in voting for Nick, but when the target moved to Lis... hum. Regardless of that he ultimately must have swung Colby and possibly Tina (she may have already been there) over to his side of thinking for the vote. Why would he do this? The ultimate goal is to win... second place is a 90% reduction in the prize... the 3-8th prize is not greatly reduced from 2nd... so if you can't win from here on out, does it matter much whether your 2nd or 5th? Especially for Keith "The Survivor Chef" who surely expected to make out well from the sheer publicity of the whole thing. So lets look at the winning thing... at this point in the game who does he beat in a final two matchup? Lis - NO, Rodger - NO, Nick - probably No, Jerri - YES, Amber - Maybe, Colby - probably No, Tina - NO. Based on this, he is allied with two people that he probably can't beat. The one he could guarantee a win against he would be hard pressed to get into a final with. The one he may be able to beat... hum... does this move make a pairing with Amber more likely... doubtful... but perhaps he's resigned himself to no better than 2nd place. If so what would endear him to the most people... KILLING Jerri, but not just killing Jerri... killing Jerri when it wasn't necessarily the best move. I do realize he did not know for sure that Jerri would be as hated by the public as she currently is, but he probably had a pretty good idea ! After all he probably makes more than the difference of 2nd-8th place finish for just signing the cookbook deal! With good sales... a video or two, maybe a Food Network special... he just might make out better than the winner regardless! Tina - unlike a lot of people on this board I have never been convinced of the Keith/Tina bond. Tina appears, to me at least, to be playing the game like it IS a game... nothing personal... just playing the game the way it was meant to be played... ie to WIN. Now, I don't really see this as real good move for her, because, she now is no longer guaranteed a final 3 appearance. She may have been worried about Colby (or Keith for that matter) keeping their alliance with her... but based on what I can tell she shouldn't have been. Plus giving the same rational as I used with Keith how does she do in a final 2 match up? Lis - probably No, Rodger - maybe, Nick - maybe, Jerri - YES, Amber - YES, Colby - maybe, Keith - Yes. Now if the plan was to align with the kucha's in a speculated Good Guy's alliance... I just don't see how this helps her ultimate chances! Plus the kucha bond is extremely tight... leaving 3 of them just seams plain dumb if your goal is to jump ship! Now it's possible that she felt that she wouldn't be able to make the final 2 due to C/K's IC (potential) prowess... but as we saw from last year the challenges toward the end were as much about mental strength as they were physical strength. Her plan (assuming she had one) has to be to keep Amber (50-50) or to recruit a kucha (un-fleshdripping-likely). I'm willing to give her the benefit of doubt that Keith insisted and since both she and Colby were unable to convince him differently... and knowing that Keith's vote was all that was likely necessary... the decision was made to stick together (BTW - if you review the tape of when Keith and Colby were discussing switching to Jerri... she didn't say a single word... so her position on this plan is officially unknown... but we do know at least some of what she said to Lis... and that sounded a whole lot more like Colby's way of thinking!). Colby - bad move on his part being unable to keep the K/T/C alliance together. Being out for a day did not help this! I truly believe he would not have picked J/A over K/T had it come down to that... even though it would have been the wise move. With K/T/C he had his best chance at winning and getting into the finals, and it was all but guaranteed if he could have just kept them together. Once again let's examine how he would he stack up against the remaining people in a final 2 ? Lis - No, Rodger - No, Nick - probably No, Jerri - YES, Amber - YES, Tina - maybe, Keith - probably Yes. He had no real advantage to do this... but it also looked as if he had no choice either... the LAST thing anyone wanted was for Jerri to know they were aiming at her... and her to survive. They knew that they had 1 kucha vote (Lis) and probably the rest too... but just in case they had to have 4 Jerri votes to ensure she was done... Lis, Keith, Tina, and Colby. Plus once it was decided you gotta know both Tina and Colby wanted to be able to write her name down. Now the game has changed... he must know he is a target, in order for him to pull through he needs to work hard to align himself with Amber and Tina... if what I'm thinking really is what happened... she won't be too awfully happy with Keith either... but then again how far are you going if your best hope is to gamble on backstabbing Tina and Amber the backstabbed? Oops there goes that logic thing again... please forgive... old habits are hard to break edited for formatting... looked fine in the preview...?   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-01-01, 09:49 AM (EST) 19. "RE: It's all logic" Wow, great analysis Idiot. I would have to agree with almost everything having to do with K/T/C 's motivations. It seems pretty clear that it was Keith's decision, but I believe Tina was in with him, even though she didn't speak. That scene was really great - it had a weird family feel to it: "Son, your mother and I have decided it's time to kill off your old pig Jerri." "But Dad! You said we could keep her." "I know son. Sometimes life just isn't fair." I digress. I have also been wondering if the players at this point are spending time considering Final 2 possibilities. It must cross their minds. But the playing field is pretty close, and can change very easily. You suggest that at this point Amber is the clear loser of any Final 2. Yeah, I'd have to agree, but this could change easily if she can garner some pity for being the old witch's hostage. And Liz seems like the clear winner of any Final 2. I agree. The rest are really hard to figure out. It depends on the jury of course, but it also will depend on whether the jury will vote based on who they like, or as most did in S1, who they thnink played the game the best. There wasn't much debate about whether Rich Hatch was the smartest player in S1 was there? If S2 follows this voting logic, Liz may not be such a big favorite. One final word on Keith. You're right to point out that he did not stand a great chance of winning should he make Final 2. BUT orchestrating Jerri's removal just might win him some affection, as you suggest. Was he thinking about this? I immagine he was.   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-01-01, 10:08 PM (EST) 22. "RE: It's all logic" P2S- You may be right about Tina... I'll try and look at the tape again just to see if I see what most everyone else does... who knows maybe the coral thing was what did it for her. We saw Jerri's reaction... could Keith and Tina have had just a little bit of the same emotions as well? As far as an orge-kucha final two match-up the ONLY winning combo for the ogre's, in my opinion, would be Amber... and only if the ogre jury members vote unanimous... she's the only one thus far that has any high moral ground to stand on... and would K/T/C really hate her if she did to them what they did to her? Probably, but they might think more of her in a Rich Hatch sort of way (BTW - this is also the only loosing combo I could see for Lis... although Lis-Rodger would be real tight). Nick-Colby-Keith-Tina-Rodger-Lis-Amber (4-3) (no this isn't the order I had last week, it changes weekly, and given my track record 2-7 so far... no one better go to Vegas just yet ) -ICB   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-31-01, 00:34 AM (EST) 12. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" I think Colby not wanting to vote Jerri was more self preservation. He couldn't be 100% sure that Kucha would vote Jerri (90% sure but not 100%), so if what if it were like this: N,E,R vote Colby J,A vote Elisabeth C,K,T vote Jerri Tie between Jerri and Colby. Colby and Jerri don't revote. Amber would vote Colby for betrayal so he's out. That's why I think he was so adhement to not vote Jerri.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-01-01, 12:21 PM (EST) 20. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" Colby did have the most to lose by voting Jerri. Yes, he disliked her and seemed to get some joy by voting for her and saying his little good-bye speech. But it also took away his power in the alliance and put him in a more risky position. As long as Jerri was there the Kuchas were voting against her. Guess who their next Ogakor target will probably be? Colby! He also has 5 votes against him. Any tie would hurt him badly. He won't be feeling as secure as he was before. He has the most to lose from an Amber defection. I expect Colby to be very careful to make Amber feel welcome.   Top

Jazzie 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 04-02-01, 01:26 PM (EST) 23. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" I'm new...please bear with me. I keep coming back to the same thought over and over...what if Colby defects to Kucha? He seemed rather "smarmy" with Nick last week and I think he gave Nick immunity by falling off the post. What do you think?   Top

dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 04-02-01, 01:32 PM (EST) 24. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" Welcome, Jazzie, and thanks for posting on an existing thread first. I have to say, though... >and I think he gave >Nick immunity by falling off >the post. What do >you think? Two words: No way. The idea of Colby defecting to Kucha is interesting, I'd like to hear how you support that. What's in it for him? How would the votes go? Is he counting on winning all the ICs? I won't try to refute your statement until I hear why you think so. Also -"smarmy" with Nick? I missed this. What do you mean? Thanks, dk   Top

Jazzie 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 04-02-01, 01:59 PM (EST) 25. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" >Immunity: If he defected to Kucha (he's been playing 2 sides against each other, why not 3?), he would need Nick to stay to make it a majority (4 Kucha...3 Ogies). When I watched the show, it just seemed like he did one of his famous flips off the pole thus leaving Nick with the necklace. Just my perception. No hard facts. >What's in it for him? It would give the Kucha's a clear majority for TC votes. *If* it was a true alliance. They could turn around and pick off Tina, Keith and Amber and go into the final 4. I really haven't come up with scenario of how it go down then. He would have to do some heavy selling to make it to the final 3. If he could win immunity then, he would be in the final 2 with either Rodger or Liz. His chances for the million wouldn't be good with either but might be better with Rodger. >Also -"smarmy" with Nick? I missed this. What do you mean? My impression, again, they seemed awfully friendly after Nick won immunity...patting each other on the back...walking off together, etc. I don't have a clue as to the logistics of all of this, it just came to me that maybe everyone is selling Colby short on how low he would go to win the money. Making pacts with as many people as possible probably increases his chances. JMHO.   Top

dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 04-02-01, 02:26 PM (EST) 26. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" LAST EDITED ON 04-02-01 AT 02:42 PM (EST) Thanks Jazzie. I still have a problem with it being to his benefit to "make pacts with as many people as possible". Because very soon, he will be found out by how the voting goes. With 3 alliances, he's found out right quick. And then he is at risk. There is an interesting point here, though: Colby was the one against Nick in the finals of IC. How much is it killing him that he lost to him? He doesn't like to lose anyway, and to lose in a case where it directly impacted his scheme must eat at him. They consider Nick to be strong, that's why he was next on the list, and probably viewed this time while he was sick as a perfect opportunity. They must have felt sure he wouldn't win IC, because they seemed to have no contigency plan. Or at least weren't prepared for Keith/their emotions when faced with actually voting off Liz before Jerri. I agree with a previous poster, too: something happened that we didn't see that got them all firmly on the Jerri vote bandwagon. I do think they have a plan now. Edited to add: Colby does have a "plan" re: the Kuchas, though - in his view, this is the jury. He has been a good sport (eg. friendly with Nick after losing IC, high five with Jeff after TC, etc), he has been nice (coral gifts), and just all-around likeable. I don't recall if he ever badmouthed Jerri in front of Kuchas like he has with K/T (might be too risky), but I bet he hasn't shown a lot of sweetness to her ("put the rope around your neck", roughness during RC). I give Colby a lot of credit for smarts and looking ahead!   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-03-01, 11:12 AM (EST) 31. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" I don't think Colby would defect to Kucha unless he was sure they had lost Amber's vote. Then he may want to look at other choices. But right now he is strongly with Ogakor. If he started jumping from side to side he may make the final 2 but he would never win a vote. Everyone on the jury would be upset with his betrayal.   Top

MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-31-01, 07:47 AM (EST) 13. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" >OK, I will take some of the blame in us not figuring out the >Jerri ouster since I was the major advocate 2 weeks ago, >explaining how it was not logical for Ogakor to get rid of >Jerri until at least episode 10. Just FYI, I think the majority did pick Jerri this week. I was agreeing with you all along about her not getting voted out this week, but luckily I waited to vote until the day of the show, when there was some good info about Jerri. So I also voted for her. I think a lot of us did like thatm because she was the majority from this board this week.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-31-01, 10:22 AM (EST) 15. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" Jerri had 33% of our votes this week - so yes, Jerri did have the majority - in George W. math.   Top

Lurking 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-01-01, 09:02 AM (EST) 18. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" The one among multiple candidates who gets the most votes wins by a plurality.   Top

MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 04-01-01, 03:48 PM (EST) 21. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" Sorry I did not make myself clear. Jerri had the highest percentage of the votes. This is not the majority, indeed. But it does say that of all the people that voted, more of them voted for Jerri than they did for any other single contestant. Seems good enough to me.   Top

Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-02-01, 03:05 PM (EST) 27. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" Well, I see that this post received much discussion. It looks like most believe that Amber will maintain at least a semblance of an alliance with Ogakor and Nick will fall this week. I see it a different way... I believe that the reasoning behind Jerri's ouster (specifically Nick winning immunity) shows that Kieth, Colby and Tina want the nice people (Liz and Roger) to go farther in the game than the others. Now I agree with this and I also agree that this may have been the stupidest thing that Colby has ever done in his life, let alone Kieth and Tina. I feel that Liz worked her magic and niced her way into an alliance with Ogakor. I would also imagine that she brought Roger along for the ride, otherwise he would have been the Episode 9 bootee. That means that as of Episode 9 the alliance must have been... Kieth, Tina, Colby, Liz and Roger. We have a pretty good reason to believe that Amber was still alligned with Jerri and also that Nick was legitimately scared that he was next to go. That would logically (there I go again) point that either one or both of these two people would try to take advantage of this situation. Especially Nick as he is definitely the odd man out. Amber at least has some previous kinship with her old team. So, what does this mean?... --------------------------------------------------------------- It means that Liz and Roger are pretty safe this week. In both of the logical (sorry, I can't help myself) situations Roger and Liz are part of the deciding team. The scenerios are as follows... 1. As we saw from previous episodes, Liz and Roger have persuaded Colby, Kieth and Tina, to keep them around. Instead of getting rid of one of these two the C/K/T alliance turned on Jerri. This shows premeditation and lends towards Liz and Roger being informed of this decision. In fact, it didn't seem as though either Roger or Liz were worried about being booted during EP9 council. So, the first scenerio would be that Liz and Roger are indebted to Kieth/Tina and Colby and maintain an alliance with them (with the plan of these five being the final 5). Thus Amber or Nick are the only two that could be booted. Likely in this scenerio everyone else is correct and the bootee is... NICK. If he wins immunity then Amber would be the only other target. Now the problem with this is that this is what MB has been showing us. The show has been portraying the Kieth/Tina/Colby alliance as the winners. We have seen that they are in control and that they were planning on getting rid of Nick and that the Jerri ouster was their decision. Most would go along with the editing and assume that they will be the final 3 (barring immunity) and that one of them would be the final winner. Now using the backwards logic of MB doesn't show us the truth, we have the following... 2. Liz and Roger though they maybe alligned and indebted to Kieth/Tina and Colby; now realize the position that they are in. Realizing that the game is once again up for grabs they act on it. All they would need is to either get Amber to join Kucha (giving them a 4-3 majority) or to persuade Kieth and Tina to join them (giving them a 4-3 majority). As you can see in each of these two scenerios Liz and Roger make up 50% of the team. Now we don't have much else to go on except the preview pics. Now most of them "seem" to be of the food issue and their discussions about hunger, but, lets look at some of them again... Now we can see from the two pics above that Liz is going to get alot of one on one time. From the hair/shirt/necklace we can believe that these are two angles from the same discussion or that she had two different one-on-ones within a few hours of each other. Now of course the one-on-ones might be regarding the food issues and possibly they key in on Liz the most because she has the biggest problem with the lack of food, or... Maybe the discussion is more along the lines of breaking a promise?... Now a big question here is why is it Nick consoling her and not Roger? Good question. Possibly this is not so much consoling as it is "talking her into doing something which is against her nature". Lets look at this from a different angle... If Liz and Roger joined with Colby/Tina/Kieth by promising to be in a five person alliance (so as to keep Liz and Roger around instead of Jerri) then Nick and Amber would be in the worst positions if this alliance held. We know that Nick was worried about getting the boot. He still would be even after having seen Jerri get the boot. Now Nick would likely try to take advantage of the idiocy of Ogakor. Amber would likely be easily persuaded to joining Kucha, if Liz and Roger would betray their word. Now we have all seen that Roger knows this is a game and as he said it "it's every man for himself". He would likely do what ever it takes to win including betraying his word to Colby/Kieth and Tina. Now I believe that Liz would have the hardest time with this. She seems to actually be a nice person. Likely her word means something to her so she would be the least likely to betray her word. Now Roger would possibly try to explain the logic to her but in desperation i could see Nick being the one to persuade her. My belief is that she is crying not because she is hungry and not because something happened to Roger but more because she knows she is going to have to break her promise and do something not in her nature. If this is true then episode 10 would likely play out with either one of the following getting booted at Tribal Council... Colby or Kieth. I think that Liz and Roger would not vote for Tina as of yet. Also if they were smart they would use the tie-breaker rule and give one vote to either Kieth or Tina for future use. In other words the council could go to a 3-3 tie against Nick and Colby and Colby would lose after the revote. Either way the likely candidate due to strength is Colby but Kieth is a possibility. ------------------------------------------------------------ So, the LOGIC (Can't help it) shows that one of two-three scenerios can play out and the likely candidates for getting the boot are... 1. Nick or Amber 2. Colby or Kieth Personally I believe that the Boston Herald report of Liz making the final 4 is true. Now in either or my situations she makes final 4. If she and Roger stick in a 5 person alliance with Colby/Tina and Kieth then she makes it. If she goes with the Amber/Kucha backstab then she makes it. If she persuades Tina and Kieth to backstab Colby then she makes it. So, this is nothing huge, except we have decidedly removed one of the 7 remaining from getting the boot at the next three councils (woo hoo)!!! But the fact that the report stated that she makes Final 4 and not final 3 or 2 may mean something. For her to get the boot first after getting down to a final four, which scenerio would make sense? - If the Ogakor 3 plus Liz/Roger alliance holds then Roger would likely go once down to five with Liz following once down to four. - If the Amber/Kucha scenerio played out then Liz and Roger would likely (barring immunity) be the final 2. It's possible that Amber would have an immunity run and thus be in the final 2 but again Liz would at least be top 3. Of course she may indeed go farther even though the News Report only said top 4. Either way what we need to do is decide which of these happen. Possibly someone has heard the audio from the preview and can tell if Liz is talking about the food problems or not. Personally I really hope that Nick talks Liz/Roger and Amber into joining an alliance and Ogakor learns a lesson from being itiots!!! "Ya, sure we went to the moon"!!!   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 04-02-01, 05:39 PM (EST) 29. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" CJ You always have really interesting stuff and always from a slant I'm not expecting. One thing I disagree with you on is Colby... I agree he is in a bad position now, but I'm not sure he could have done anything about it. We were shown him talking with Keith trying to reason with him... and earlier (maybe) we saw Tina using basically the same rational that Colby was using with Keith, on Lis. So what happened that weren't we shown? It could have been as simple as Keith stating he was voting for Jerri... period... or it could have been Tina agreeing with Keith and swaying the argument his way. Either way Colby didn't really have much of a choice and he was left with voting with his alliance or going off on his own... either way he's probably screwed... but at least if he goes along, he gets to vote off Jerri... which he obviously wanted to do. In another thread I speculated that Keith's reasoning for voting off Jerri was almost rational (basically Keith looses final 2 match-up's with either Colby or Tina), as he needs to shake things up if he is to have a chance at the million. Tina is the one I just don't get... she probably does well in a final 2 match up with any Ogre (50-50 at worst against Colby), and not too good against ANY kucha. Things can obviously change in the next couple of weeks, but had they played out their cards as dealt Tina was in the primo position to take home the grand prize... now she may not make the final 4. -ICB   Top

ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 04-02-01, 03:47 PM (EST) 28. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" >Why would they give Kucha a chance to come back and win it????? Are they itiots (possibly)... *** Weeeeelll, the Ogas DO still have one more person on their team. I have my theory about Amber.... get to it in a sec... >Anyway, It turned out that I was correct in that an Ogakor got the boot but Jerri made zero chance. *** See, I don't understand why you might think that, CJ - if Oga was going to get rid of one of their own (which they did - YAY!), WHY would it have been Keith? Tina and Colby are aligned with him, and they can't stand Jerri. Till Jerri actually got booted, I long held for the theory that at some point, SOON after the merge, they are going to get so sick of her they won't be able to take it anymore, vote her off with the Kuchas, and then get back to the game in peace and quiet. I was right (thankfully!). They have no reason to get rid of Keith if they're all getting along. And we know now that IS a big part of why they got rid of Jerri - simple nuts and bolt of who's pleasant and nice to be around and who's like a toothache in a blue bikini! >Now it seems that these people aren't playing the game as well as I thought and actually care about who stays longer than whom. Meaning that they wanted to see Roger and Liz stay longer than Jerri. Now i'm fine with that as long as you don't give up your majority, which they DID - possibly. *** True - if a Kucha wins immunity again, they could set themselves up for a tie. And maybe they're not playing as smart as we'd think they would. But if they want the million to go to one of the good people, they've got it (except for Amber, and there may be hope for her yet, who knows) - it's very easy for us to sit at home and yell at the TV and say "What are they, NUTS???" They're not dumb, they know there's a million at stake, but we're also not the ones living under very harsh conditions, near starvation and in mighty close quarters with that b.itch. Not just saying this because I don't like Jerri, but the tension among them must have been unbelievable till they got rid of her. NOW I feel like they can concentrate and get down to business! >Now it is Colby, Kieth and Tina versus Kucha with Amber (as I explained two weeks ago) holding the power. *** Okay, here's my Amber theory... with all due respect, CJ, and I could very well be totally wrong about this, but until I see episode 10, I'm thinking Amber may not be aligning with the Kuchas. My theory is pretty simple - I just don't think she's independent enough. With apologies to anyone on this board who is the same age as Amber, she's VERY young - what is she - 23? Well, there's 23 year old women and there's 23 year old girls - and she falls into the latter category. Like I said, I could be way off base, but I don't think she goes on a "revenge kick" - if I AM wrong, I'll be the first one to say so, LOL!!!! I also don't know how well the Kuchas would trust her - hard to say just HOW she might double-cross them, not sure. Would Lis, Rodger and Nick want to align with someone who was in Jerri's hip pocket at all times? Especially since the Kuchas have been wanting Jerri off from the beginning, the Ogas align with them to make it a group effort, and now, with the exception of Amber, it's one big tribe of everyone who gets along. Again, I could be wrong... I'll wait and see! > I actually believe that Nick would have been Ogakor's choice last night IF he had not won immunity. *** Well, I actually thought so too - I even picked him in Superman's weekly pick. But after the Jerri boot, I'm not so sure they would have picked him without immunity. He won, so why not gun for Lis or Rodger, an obvious choice? Because they just couldn't take Jerri anymore, and who's to say that she wouldn't have been their choice if anyone else had won immunity? They obviously just had enough! >That possibly makes next weeks choice semi-easy in that if Nick does not win immunity then Ogakor would likely gun for him. *** True, and that looks most likey,and that's probably how I'll register my pick again this week. However...... > She might have even brought Roger with her leaving Aber and Nick by themselves *** However, that's also what I was thinking! What if they set up Amber, just in case! A 50-50 tie at TC!!! OUCH! ************************************** What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about???   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 04-02-01, 05:59 PM (EST) 30. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" Lisa, great thoughts. I have to say I'm on the same page with you about Amber. While I don't think she's (quite) as dumb as she appears, I do also believe that a defection would be out of character for her because of her youthfulness, shyness and even loyalty. Now.....I do believe that the loyalty has broken down a bit, and I think she will start to consider what her next move should be. BUT....if she's not absolutely sold on the value of a defection, she won't do it. At least not this week. Yes, I could be wrong. I mean, we don't really know her now do we. I don't see any reason why Kuchas would not want Amber with them, as you suggest. She's really very tolerable, and her only guilt is by association - which is much easier to forgive. I haven't seen anything to suggest that - well, anyone - has a problem with Amber. Am I missing something? If I am wrong, well, go Amber .... you're ballsier than I thought. But if she does vote with Ogakor, I don't think that alliance will stay together in E11. Looking ahead, I do think that Liz has to make Final 4 (Boston Herald, source code) along with Amber. If the source code is a plant, my guess is we won't know it until Final Four or maybe even Final Three. I could see MB sending us into the last episode - with Liz, Amber and ???? - only to laugh at us when ???? actually makes the Final. Getting ahead of myself, but these spoilers are stearing me away from Liz and Amber - at least for now.   Top

Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 04-03-01, 03:28 PM (EST) 32. "RE: THE LOGIC IN THE ILLOGICAL" Liza & Play2, I agree with your perception of Amber also but there is one thing that would make all of the difference... If a Kucharian discussed things with Amber then she might just defect. She would likely not do it on her own but if approached? Nick knows that he is in a very tough spot but should also know that with Amber, now that Ogakor has booted Jerri, they can win the mill. For the last nine days they have been sitting around knowing that they were sitting ducks just waiting to be picked off. First off I say good job to Liz and Roger for playing on Tina's and Kieth's emotions. But Nick is still odd man out and will do something if he wants to survive. All he would need to do is convince Roger and Liz to come back into the light and stay alligned with Kucha and also to get Aber to either join or just not vote along with Ogakor. I believe that if things were explained to Aber that she would see the smart move and join up with Kucha (if she wanted any chance at sticking around for more than 6 days). She now knows that... 1. Colby lied to her and Jerri (right to their faces). 2. That though the reasoning may be that they did not like Jerri and they still wish to be alligned with Amber, that after getting down to 4, she is done. Now that's a) If K/T/C did not join up with Liz and Roger as I believe they did and b) if they decide to pick off Nick, Roger and Liz before her. She should be scared and thus very approachable about a situation where she is guaranteed final 4 instead of just hoping for it. 3. Liz is closer to her age and thus a friendship may still evolve there. Anyway, you guys talk about how they couldn't stand Jerri any more so it wasn't a bad decision. My point is that they could have waited just 9 more days to do it and then be guaranteed final 3. Now there is so much uncertainty. I truly believe that they would not have done this unless they believed that they were in a good spot for the win. Now there are three situations that make this true... 1. Amber has always been alligned with Colby/Tina and Kieth (which I don't believe is true) or that they can convince her to stay with them as an alliance of 4. Now this is unlikely is Kucha (specifically Nick) has his way. She will know that if she sticks with Ogakor then at best she gets 4th place (unless immunity comes into play). If the last Kucha won imunity she would know that she would go before Colby, Kieth or Tina. 2. Kieth and Tina are planning on doublecrossing Colby and have been planning this for quite some time (3-6 days). That would mean that they are actually alligned with Liz and Roger. Now the alliance might be all five of them but Tina and Kieth may wish to get rid of Colby prior to final 3 due to his strength. If this was the case then Colby might go this or next week. This could also be why Kieth and/or Tina persuaded Colby to oust Jerri this past week. 3. The alliance is still Colby/Tina and Kieth and has been for some time. After being approached by Liz and Roger they decided to get rid of Jerri/Amber and have an alliance of 5. If they believed in this alliance then they would believe that they had an amazing chance at final 3 and eventually one of them gets the Million. This is likely the scenerio that played out during Episode 9. The question is... 1. Would Roger stay in an alliance that he would only get 5th place if he had a chance of jumping over to a new alliance that guaranteed him final 3 or 2? 2. Would Liz stay in an alliance where she would only get 4th place if she had a chance of jumping over to a new alliance that guaranteed final 3/2 or likely the million? 3. Would Nick just stand still knowing that he is probably next to go, especially if there was a chance at forming a new alliance in which he would be guaranteed final 4 or likely final 3? 4. Would Aber stick with Ogakor if she was approached by Kucha with an idea of a new alliance in which she would be likely guaranteed final 4? If the answer to everyone of these is true than the final 4 will likely be as follws... Liz Roger Nick Amber If anyone of them is incorrect than the final 4 will likely be as follws... Colby Tina Kieth Liz Now in every situation that I can come up with that makes sense with the events of Jerri's ousting, the following people would likely go as follows... Of course Immunity changes this. Also the Amber sticking with Ogakor would not have this outcome... Liz until 4th place or better Roger until 5th place or better Now the above two are the only ones that are essentially for certain (90% or better). As I explained only the Amber sticking with Ogakor scenerio would make this different. If Amber joins Kucha then it goes as follows... Liz until final 3 Roger until final 3 Nick until final 3 Amber until final 4 Now if Liz and Roger stay in a C/K/T/L/R alliance until the end then... Liz makes final 4 Roger makes final 5 Colby makes final 3 Tina makes final 3 Kieth makes final 3 Essentially this translates as follws... No matter what Roger stays until the tribe is down to 5, at a minimum (barring immunity). No matter what Liz sticks until the tribe is down to 5, at a minimum (barring immunity). That means we know of 2 that stay for three more episodes... Tina does not go this week. so... The person who gets the boot this week should be one of these four depending on what Aber does and what the Liz/Roger twosome do... Colby Kieth Nick Aber ... So, which one is likely? Question... DO YOU ALL BELIEVE THAT AMBER IS CRYING BECAUSE SHE IS HUNGRY OR BECAUSE OF FEELING GUILTY FOR HAVING TO DO SOMETHING AGAINST HER NATURE? Conspiracy Jim   Top

my0wn 40 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-04-01, 03:03 PM (EST) 33. "bump n/m" n/m   Top

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