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"Early E10 Discussion"
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 00:09 AM (EST)
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"Early E10 Discussion"
Looks like we might need a lot of help w/ E10 now that the doors have swung open and anything can happen. We no longer need to discuss Kucha getting Pagonged. The remaining 7 are looking more and more like one tribe of individuals that will be clawing for survival.

CBS Website has given us the following to work with for E10.

Let's Make a Deal

*Without her friend Jerri, what will Amber's strategy be as she continues to play the game? Will she continue to support the Ogakor alliance, or might she opt to join Kucha's?

*Having poorly allocated their rations of rice, the tribe has never been this hungry. As a result, they negotiate a major deal, which will hugely affect their lives in the Outback, in exchange for more rations. What will the deal be?

*The reward challenge brings joy to all... but not without its "natural consequences" for all but two.

Let's begin.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Bye Nick! shakes the clown 03-30-01 1
   RE: Bye Nick! Play2Survive 03-30-01 2
   RE: Bye Nick! missalex 03-30-01 3
       RE: Bye Nick! lswote 03-30-01 24
           Did Amber Know? AyatollahKhomeini 03-30-01 26
               Amber's Vote Comment... IceCat 03-30-01 27
                   Thanks, IceCat AyatollahKhomeini 03-30-01 29
                       Maybe the hair braiding thing happe... IceCat 03-30-01 31
                           But still... AyatollahKhomeini 03-31-01 36
                   RE: Amber's Vote Comment... cowboyroo 03-31-01 38
               RE: Did Amber Know? samiam 04-03-01 53
       Don't count her out yet my0wn 04-02-01 52
   RE: Bye Nick! Annadad 03-30-01 11
       RE: Bye Nick! SurvivinDawg 03-30-01 16
   E10 sets the stage for the rest of ... Ogaalltheway 03-30-01 14
 A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP Krautboy 03-30-01 4
   RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP rameses 03-30-01 5
       RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP sleeeve 03-30-01 6
       RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP Play2Survive 03-30-01 12
           RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP lawnboy 03-30-01 17
               RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP Loree 03-30-01 19
               RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP MC_Hampster 04-02-01 51
       RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP Krautboy 03-31-01 40
           Krautboy, we need to get you back o... shakes the clown 03-31-01 41
               RE: Krautboy, we need to get you ba... Krautboy 03-31-01 42
                   RE: Krautboy, we need to get you ba... shakes the clown 03-31-01 43
               RE: Krautboy, we need to get you ba... KooAlla 04-01-01 50
   Shelter dangerkitty 03-31-01 46
       RE: Shelter Play2Survive 04-01-01 48
 RE: Early E10 Discussion IceCat 03-30-01 7
   RE: Early E10 Discussion rameses 03-30-01 8
   RE: Early E10 Discussion AresMars 03-30-01 13
 who's kucha targetting now? blehargh 03-30-01 9
   Amber in Final Two SherpaDave 03-30-01 18
 RE: Early E10 Discussion SurvivinDawg 03-30-01 10
 RE: Early E10 Discussion jtmorgan61 03-30-01 15
   RE: Early E10 Discussion Loree 03-30-01 20
       RE: Early E10 Discussion Remy617 03-30-01 21
           RE: Early E10 Discussion md23rewls 03-30-01 23
 RE: Early E10 Discussion SurvivinDawg 03-30-01 22
 'Natural Consequences' IceCat 03-30-01 25
   RE: 'Natural Consequences' desert_rhino 03-30-01 30
   RE: 'Natural Consequences' LIZZLOVER 03-30-01 32
       Hey, Don't Bogart That Bamboo! IceCat 03-30-01 34
   RE: 'Natural Consequences' Krautboy 03-30-01 35
 RE: Early E10 Discussion idiotcowboy 03-30-01 28
   RE: Early E10 Discussion missalex 03-30-01 33
       RE: Early E10 Discussion Emma Peel 03-31-01 37
           RE: Early E10 Discussion cowboyroo 03-31-01 39
               RE: Early E10 Discussion vviCKed 03-31-01 44
                   RE: Early E10 Discussion Play2Survive 03-31-01 45
                       RE: Early E10 Discussion idiotcowboy 04-01-01 47
                           Nope, that would be Amber CowboyColby 04-01-01 49
               RE: Early E10 Discussion samiam 04-03-01 55
           A food reward would bring joy to al... anotherkim 04-03-01 54
 bump SherpaDave 04-04-01 56
 RE: Early E10 Discussion IM_Nessie 04-04-01 57

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 00:35 AM (EST)
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1. "Bye Nick!"
>Looks like we might need a
>lot of help w/ E10
>now that the doors have
>swung open and anything can
>happen.


....without thinking about it thoroughly yet, first glance tells me it's gotta be Nick. Lamber gets whipped back into shape by the rest of Ogawhore, telling her that an alliance of 4 is safer for all and much less stressful....Colbster realizes his "game" is over, but he's still got some breathing room, for now, the Ogawhore 4 is his best option..


So, Ogafour got a little breathing room, did some housecleaning, and now were rigth back on schedule, that means Nick's neck is back on the chopping block.


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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 00:46 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Bye Nick!"
That's my bet too. He is the odd man out after all - Amber being the runner up. Since Amber is no big threat and may now be the best Final 2 option, she will probably be safe. E10 may be an easy one. Nick goes and then it gets interesting again.

It's logical that there would be three distinct couples at that point: T/K, L/R and A/C. One of the three gets brought down as either the GGA comes together or Ogie stays together. Either way, K/T are looking good for Final 4. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

What if Nick wins immunity again? K/T will be in the same pickle. It would point back to Liz and would/could they allow that to happen? I'm hoping we learn a little bit more about IC then we've been getting lately.

But at this point, barring immunity, I'd have to say Nick is looking like about as sure a thing as Alicia was in E8. Can't wait to see new Girlfriends Jerri and Alicia enter TC next week!

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missalex 35 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 00:46 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Bye Nick!"
I'd think that too at first...but when I really think about it...

Ambore probably wouldn't go back to the rest of the Ogawhores. Remember, THEY JUST VOTED OFF HER BEST FRIEND without telling her (I don't think they told her, Ambore looked pretty surprised when Scerri was voted off), and she might feel somewhat "betrayed."

Either way she's dead...if she goes to Kucha, they eliminate C/KKK/BT and then the former Kucha members eliminates her...same with Ogawhore, probably (of course, IC could change everything).

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lswote 63 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 05:55 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Bye Nick!"
Why should Amber feel betrayed? It was obvious she couldn't be trusted with the information or she would have gone straight to Jerri. She may not choose to stay with Ogakor for other reasons, but if she doesn't realize this is just a game and the other members on her team had no choice but keep their plan from her she will be gone soon.

-- Rat -- The other white meat --

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 08:50 PM (EST)
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26. "Did Amber Know?"
Jerri and Kucha clearly didn't know what hit them ... but did Amber? Does anyone remember her comment as she voted?
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 09:16 PM (EST)
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27. "Amber's Vote Comment..."
Elizabeth, this is gonna be... the hardest vote yet... and the hardest vote for the rest of the game... but the only reason why I am making it is because I made a word with my original tribe and... I wanna stick to my word...

She apparently thought the rest of tribe was voting for Liz

IceCat

P.S.

I'm sticking to the video analysis now

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 09:27 PM (EST)
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29. "Thanks, IceCat"
...but I'm not sure I agree with that interpretation (though it could be right). WHY is this going to be the "hardest vote for the rest of the game"? I mean, we haven't seen any evidence of Amber and Liz being close, have we? Why wouldn't she just say, "Elizabeth, I'm sorry, but Nick won immunity and you're the next biggest threat"?

I mean, this is the kind of comment that Tina made when she voted off her best friend Mad Dog. But I think we'd all agree that Amber's best friend is Jerri. So why is Amber saying this?

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 09:40 PM (EST)
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31. "Maybe the hair braiding thing happened..."
Someone noticed that Amber and Liz had similar hair braids and suggested they may have done a little bonding as they did each others hair.


IceCat

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
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03-31-01, 00:06 AM (EST)
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36. "But still..."
the "hardest vote for the rest of the game" because of group hair-braiding? I can't buy it. I'm more interested in the word she gave to her original team. Could there have been a Susan-Kelly (or a Liz-Rodger) style pact in there?
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
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03-31-01, 00:42 AM (EST)
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38. "RE: Amber's Vote Comment..."
IceCat..Did she say "hardest vote the rest of the game"? This would mean it would be easier for her to vote off her tribemates than it was to vote off Elisabeth. Could this be "Let's make a deal?" She makes a deal to go with Kucha ONLY if Liz carries her to the Final 2 causing her to betray Rodger to stay alive, otherwise she stays with Ogakor?
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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings
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04-03-01, 10:21 AM (EST)
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53. "RE: Did Amber Know?"
I don't see how she could have. Her comment to the camera makes it clear that she thought she was voting with the rest of her tribe...and as Jerri did the Walk of Shame, Amber buried her face in her hands...shocked & dismayed, her place in her tribe now unquestionably expendable.

We didn't really see what Amber spent her time doing while Jerri was gone. Maybe she and Liz really hit it off once the Queen allowed Amber out of her shadow. And of course MB wouldn't show us that, especially if it would give us a clue as to where Amber's loyalty would go once Jerri was gone for good.

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my0wn 40 desperate attention whore postings
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04-02-01, 05:01 PM (EST)
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52. "Don't count her out yet"
As it stands right now Amber wont do better than final 4 with Keith, Colby, and Tina as the final 3, which is what I have been thinking for awhile now. The (IMO) early exit of Jerri has opened a door.

What about the possibility of Liz going to Amber and convincing her that if she joins Kucha she can make it to the final 3. Wouldn't the final 3 slot be more appealing than 4th? I think Liz has made it pretty clear to Tina that her and Rodger are a team, if she does the same to Amber and invites her to Join them (without mentioning Nick) Amber may like her chances better.

I know we can't believe MB even though lately he seems to tell us what will happen, expecting us NOT to believe it.(wow he is cocky!) He has said that alliances weren't as important in this game as they were in S1. The exit of Jerri proves that, the question remains, is Liz smart enough to see it, and persuasive enough to do it?

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Annadad 26 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 06:47 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Bye Nick!"
Dimber is dim but the Kuchas are not. They know that now is the best chance they will ever have of getting control of the game. All they have to do is lure Dimber to their side. She has lost her best friend and been betrayed by her other friends. Kucha should see that Amber will never be more vulnerable to their overtures than she is now.

Lets say Dimber stays with the remaining Ogies. That would mean tribal voting for the next three episodes and Amber makes it to the final four. Not being part of the K/C/T alliance that unanimously voted out Jerri, Amber must know that she could very easily be the first one of the four ousted. Her chances at winning immunity against Colby? near zero, Keith? almost as bad and against tri-athlete and marathoner Tina? I don't think so.


Alternatively, she could defect to Kucha and vote out the other Ogies over the next three episodes. That gets her to the final four, the same as if she stuck it out with K/C/T only now she competes for immunity against Lis, Roger and Nick. Can she beat Nick?, not hardly, Lis? yeah, she could beat her, Roger? she can compete with him too.

Under either scenario she makes it to the final four but is then liekely the first to go barring immunity. It may be a long shot but at this point, with the Jerri Cabal busted, this maybe her only choice. She should just go with the group she feels she can compete agaist the best which is Kucha.

The ony other viable stratagem I see for Amber is to play the weakling angle. Either way she makes final four and at that point, people have to be thinking about getting rid of the strongest palyers. Tribal voting will be history by then. She could play the weakling that no one fears while talking up how strong Keith and Colby are so that when the Ogies are done with the Kuchas and have to start turning on eachother, maybe they go for the uber texan first because colby is just to strong a threat both in immunity and the jury vote (Jerri was right, the coral gifts were a brilliant idea).

To do this Amber should be sure to lose all RCs and even the ICs so that she can't be perceived as a threat.

Wow, this show is actually starting to look interesting again.

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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 01:21 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Bye Nick!"
I agree Annadad, but it's better for Amber if she waits an episode. Vote out Nick with the Ogies (immunity threat), THEN switch sides. Colby goes on the tiebreak, then Keith and Tina are sitting ducks. That leaves Amber, Rodger and Lis.

Geez, I just realized, we're not that far away...

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH

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Ogaalltheway 16 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 10:39 AM (EST)
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14. "E10 sets the stage for the rest of the show"
LAST EDITED ON 03-30-01 AT 10:40 AM (EST)

Personally, I am inclinded to believe that Nick goes next eppy. He had so much more air time, and he freely admits to being the target. That said, I also think it's possible for Colby to get the boot in the next eppy, too.

I don't think the Kuchas (at least Liz/Rodger) will take Amber in. Tina and Keith basically saved Liz last night (they only saw five votes--do the math--they may think only T/K voted for Jerri), and I do think that Liz dislikes Amber almost as much as she disliked Jerri. I don't necessarily see L/R alligning with K/T, but I think they may all vote the same way.

I also find the pic of the men in the water with the women on the shore (Tina's looking down at the ground) is telling. Do the women have to pick which man leaves the outback in exchange for more food? Or do they have to pick which man doesn't participate in the immunity challenge? I think that the tribe has to choose between food and immunity.

I also think that Amber will attempt a Kucha alliance, but will end up back with Ogakor. Unless K/T see Colby as a threat or not-to-be trusted, I predict, barring immunity, that Nick goes in the next eppy.

Regardless of what happens, the events of the next eppy will set the tone for the rest of the show. After next week, we will probably be able to make a pretty accurate final four guess.

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 01:55 AM (EST)
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4. "A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP"
What a first looked like a clue regarding "deal making" between the remaining tribe members, is looking more and more like a "deal" for food between the tribe members and MB/JP.

From CBS we have, "...they negotiate a major deal, which wil hugely affect their lives in the Outback,..."

From Zap2it.com, "...At their wits end, the tribe members are forced to make a decision that costs them dearly...."

It sound like they "make a deal with the devil" for food and give up something that they shouldn't. What is it?

"Rising water" and "lack of effort"; rather than move their shelter, they trade it for food and regret it later?

Do they trade their Rain gear or Jackets or blankets for food?

What have they got that without it, "could cost them dearly"...

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rameses 89 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 03:58 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP"
Krautboy...It didn't occur to me while watching the previews and this is probably really off the wall, but...When I read the last line of your post the only thing that jumped out at me was IMMUNITY! What if they have to forgo an immunity challenge next week in order to receive more food or participate in a challenge for food rather than immunity? Is that just too far out there to beleive? I don't know what it was about your post, but for some reason the thought that the only thing they have that would "cost them dearly" would be immunity. Really, why would the Devil want any of their gear? How would he really prevent them from moving their shelter? Is there some kind of rule against moving to higher ground at the same site without his permission? I don't know. Like I said, this may be really off the wall, but it was just my first thought. What do you think?
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 04:07 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP"
My first thought was they'd have to give up their reward challenge, but since we know from the CBS teasers that a RC will take place, my next thought is immunity...

But that may affect the game too much... can MB change that rule in the midst of game play???

What about fish hooks?
They have to give up the chance for fish in exchange for the sure thing of rice.

Or maybe their luxury items???

Or perhaps they have to pledge their eternal souls to MB, the devil himself...

My personal guess is they must sign away their first born... they'll get food now, but it will cost them dearly later.

On second thought, I'm leaning toward fish hooks... maybe they'll have to rely on rice and the chance at a pig.

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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 09:24 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP"
Immunity was my very first thought as well. Would trading food for fishing hooks, or food for jackets "cost them dearly?" Even that would be costly, MB is make a television show, and would the audience be on the edge of their seat as the players turn in their rain gear one by one? I don't think so. The deal MUST involve the game.

Initially I thought most players would be totally willing to give it up, and a few that would not. But maybe the playing field is closer than that. Isn't it reasonable to assume everyone might feel slightly vulnerable? Rodger and Tina should both feel relatively safe, but the rest of them could be a target - especially Nick, Colby, Keith and Amber.

It makes sense to me that in place of IC we will see the 7 members work through the process of coming to this decision. MB has been crafty this season about making "life" the game. Just this week, he let the players decide how they would pair off in RC. That "game away from the game" was a game Jerri clearly lost, and wass what she believes sealed her fate.

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lawnboy 1 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 01:39 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP"
Perhaps MB offers to give them food in exchange for lowering the final prize. So instead of a million, they only get $900,000 or half a million for winning the game. That seems to make sense to me and it would be a tough thing to swallow for the survivors.

It also goes with the quote that it'll "cost them dearly".

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 03:05 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP"
lawnboy - that is what I was thinking too. Maybe they have to pay for the rice with some of the prize money. How much does rice go for in the Outback?
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MC_Hampster 105 desperate attention whore postings
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04-02-01, 02:07 PM (EST)
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51. "RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP"
>Perhaps MB offers to give them
>food in exchange for lowering
>the final prize. So instead
>of a million, they only
>get $900,000 or half a
>million for winning the game.
>That seems to make sense
>to me and it would
>be a tough thing to
>swallow for the survivors.

Not a chance in my opinion. That takes too much away from the audience. As mentioned before, MB is definately in the business of captivating his audience, and while making the tribe members make that decision in this episode might give you a little dramatic suspence for a little while, it would only distract from the remaining episodes.

M.C.


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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-31-01, 03:02 AM (EST)
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40. "RE: A "deal" with the Devil: MB/JP"
Rameses, I think your right. Losing immunity is something that could "cost them dearly". I'm just having a hard time coming up with a scenario that works within the framework of the game.

The IC is too important a part of the game to eliminate, so if giving up immunity was the trade off, how would it work?

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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03-31-01, 03:25 AM (EST)
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41. "Krautboy, we need to get you back on track"
>Rameses, I think your right. Losing
>immunity is something that could
>"cost them dearly". I'm just
>having a hard time coming
>up with a scenario that
>works within the framework of
>the game.
>
>The IC is too important a
>part of the game to
>eliminate, so if giving up
>immunity was the trade off,
>how would it work?

....there WILL be an IC this episode, the fire-tower challenge pics from the preview are from the IC....check out the new pics in the VidCap thread, there is a pic of Nick wearing the Idol while the challenge is being explained by Jiffy...the clothing, sunlight all match up with the challenge pics.

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-31-01, 03:42 AM (EST)
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42. "RE: Krautboy, we need to get you back on track"
Shakes, If I'm off track, so are you!! See my post on the VidCap thread:

<http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1112.shtml#23>

We ARE on the same track. Just trying to brainstorm all the possibilities early on in the process.

It warms my heart to know your watching and keeping us from straying too far!

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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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03-31-01, 03:48 AM (EST)
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43. "RE: Krautboy, we need to get you back on track"
Well, it's good to see that your not straying too far....I'm not buying into the contestatants having an option in regard to participating in the IC.....why would there be 3 big bags of rice if only a couple of contestants at most are gonna be eating?

I think the rice thing has to be a group decision.


But, to humor your brainstorming, who do we see for sure COMPETING in the IC...I'm not gonna go back and look at the pics but I seem to remember seeing Colby, KKK, Amber and someone else for sure.

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KooAlla 33 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-01, 11:39 AM (EST)
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50. "RE: Krautboy, we need to get you back on track"
You are absolutely right Shakes. I don't have a good guess as to what they will loose in the exchange. But according to the quote..."It will greatly affect their LIVES in the Outback." IC's will not affect their lives. Mabey they have to give up their blankets. I don't know. Lowering the prize money doesn't make sense to me either though.

I wish someone knew the answer to this one...I can't stand the waiting!!!

....It's all a part of me...and that's who I am.--Jessica Andrews

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03-31-01, 11:36 AM (EST)
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46. "Shelter"
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-01 AT 11:38 AM (EST)

I'm going with "shelter for food" deal, and here's why:

1. Basics of survival are food/water/shelter. It makes sense that if they want more help with one, they have to trade for less help with another.

2. A continuing theme has been how incredibly miserable they are when it rains. Rain has been shown to have a "huge affect on their lives in the Outback' -even with a shelter and a tarp to lay on. This could by why we've seen so much about their misery.

3. The quotes "hugely affect their lives in the Outback" and "cost them dearly" - if they complain this much about the rain WITH a tarp and shelter, what will it be like without?

Other thoughts:
They "negotiate" a major deal.
Three bags of rice. Maybe each bag of rice equals a part of the shelter. They have to decide how many bags they need, and what they will give up. This fits witht he habit of forcing the players to make decsions amongst themselves. Conflict will ensue! (even without Jerri).

And more interaction as they figure out how to function without the shelter. Do they sleep separately? Use clothing? More opportunities for decision making/conflict.

I can't see it being something that only one or some of them have to give up (such as chance at IC). Reduce the prize - no way. Plus that doesn't "hugely affect their life in the Outback."

More thoughts on this?

dk

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04-01-01, 09:57 AM (EST)
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48. "RE: Shelter"
Right. No chance it's the prize money.

While they could be trading one basic need for another, I'm getting a sense of the "life in the outback" is referring more to life with each other. This may be one of MB's "life challenges" to see how people deal with having to leave someone to starve for a time. If MB could, he would force every one of the players into some impossile choice that leaves them stinking of evil.

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03-30-01, 04:48 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
This just in... a video transcript from EP10...

Opening sequence from the RC...

Jiffy: Well you are all starving to death... Tina has scurvy, Rodger just broke his hip due to osteoporosis... Looks like you could all use a little more food...

<Slow Pan> All the tribe members standing on the beach...

<Cut to Close Up> Rodger standing with a little wooden 'Tiny Tim' crutch...

<Cut to Close Up> Tina picking at her bleeding gums...

Jiffy: Here's the reward... 40 pounds of nice fresh rice and an assortment of canned goods... but there's a catch... <evil grin>

<Rapid Cut Series> Tribe members with looks of shock and horror...

Jiffy: Yes... that's right... you have to take 'her' back...

<Slow Pan Down the Beach> Jerri is slowly strolling up the beach, smiling oh so sweetly...

Keith: <Falling to his knees> Nooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Jiffy: <Standing over Keith> It's for the good of the show Keith... ratings are down and MB says it's my butt in the sling if we tank any further... you know those bean counters at network corporate are just not gonna let this one go... it's a numbers thing... besides, you got the book deal thing goin' for yah... there'll be other chances to be a millionaire...

<Cross Fade> Jerri strolling closer...

Jiffy: <To the whole group> Besides... since 'she's' been released back into the general population, 65% of the crew have been flown out by chopper for emergency STD treatments... the CBS Staff Health Care plan just can't take that kind of volume...

<Cross Fade> Jerri strolling even closer...

Jiffy: come on... nice fresh rice... I'll even throw this big ole crate of fresh, juicy oranges... yah know that Tina would like to keep at least some her teeth...

<Cross Fade> Jerri strolling even closer, smiling...

<Slow Motion> <Nick falling face forward onto the hot sand... tears streaming down his face> Nooooooooooooooooooooo!

Jiffy: come on... is she really all that bad... come on Keith... let's cook up a big pot of rice for Jerri to welcome her home...

<Fade to Black>

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rameses 89 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 05:02 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
ROFLMAO!!!!!
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03-30-01, 09:50 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
Thanks Ice I needed that... STD treatments.....LOL



There are two types of people, predators and prey, and the sound you hear is the sharpening of my claws.

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blehargh 14 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 06:30 AM (EST)
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9. "who's kucha targetting now?"
i think kucha will vote for amber next time.

why?

basically amber thought she was going to the final 3 and i don't think she's even made any sort of effort to get to know kucha at all. it looks as if she doesnt' care becuase she thought that kucha was dead anyways. of course that doesn't make sesne cause she knew that they had to be on teh jury too... hrmm...

also the other reason i think this is that i don't think liz would be able to cast a vote againts Colby, keith or tina because she just had her ass saved by them. and incidentally, this is the reason why amber will not align with kucha either. liz will not turn her back and backstab the people that just saved her.

also it'd be interesting to note if kucha knows that colby voted for jerri too? i think kucha dislikes colby next. (for immunity reasons)

incidentally i think nick is next. the rice trade is for no immunity.

from ep11 on. amber has to win immunity to survive. she'll get booted next opportunity.

if amber survives ep11. i think colby will be gone. liz, rodger and amber will vote him off.

if amber is booted ep11, and colby wins immunity ep12... liz or rodger goes..

so anyway you slice it. keith and tina are in the F4

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03-30-01, 01:46 PM (EST)
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18. "Amber in Final Two"
Something tells me that Amber makes the final two. It's hard to imagine how she actually gets there, but it's the only thing left that occurs to me to cause a schism between her and Jerri outside the show.

If Amber is in the final two and Jerri votes for the other person to win, that would be a betrayal on the order of Kelly/Susan, no?

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03-30-01, 06:47 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
LAST EDITED ON 03-30-01 AT 11:22 AM (EST)

First glance indicates Nick (sorry VampKira!):

1) Nick was one determined guy in the IC. If you didnt' see the fire in his eyes, his opponents in that IC certainly did. He is now clearly seen as a threat and a contender.
2) The Ogies need to maintain their majority. Colby, give it up guy! and give Amber the pickle tickle to win her back to the Ogie side!!!
3) I've seen a LOT of posters on this board echo JP's desperate ploy at TC, saying that the Barracuda tribe was now truly born and this was a whole new game, that the voting dynamics change and it'll now be a Kucha final, etc. etc. etc. Well, sorta, but it's still an Ogie game. Nothing has changed here, folks, except that it's going to be more peaceful without Jerri. Unless he wins immunity, Nick is (likely) next!

Edited to add:
I like the idea some of y'all have stated that they'll trade an Immunity Challenge for food. The last RC and IC were heats between two persons.. that's not really a good way to determine an individual immunity (better between two tribes). So MB is having trouble thinking of ways to do IC challenges (the squares IC being an example of reaching deep to find something) and he HAS to save his best for the last two of them. By swapping food for an IC, MB gets to save an IC idea, and he introduces an incredible dynamic into the group: to take or not to take the deal. It should provide for some interesting play among our illustrious contestants now that Jerri is gone and not making trouble.

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH

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jtmorgan61 91 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 01:03 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
Well, here's what I'm a thinkin'.

Amber really is in a position of power, but I don't think she appreciates it. She will look to cling to someone else without Jerri. Rodger is too old, Nick is a bad personality match, and Lis is a rival for prom queen. Tina is the best bet.

Logic indicates the same result. Amber has to see that a) she's probably #4 either way with Kucha or Ogakor but b) Ogakor is more game oriented and an Ogakor might take her to the final two as most beatable, and c) if she gets to the finals against a Kucha, she is dead, as Kucha stays loyal and CTK vote against her, whereas if she gets there against an Ogakor she can appeal to Kucha and hope Jerri turns them for her against, say, Keith. Only way she can win.

As far as the clues go, I think the website might not have pointed it out if Amber went to Kucha. That way it would be a "surprise," you know? I don't see the trade for food as losing IC - I mean, that isn't a huge price and if I were in the voting majority I wouldn't want there to be immunity anyway. Maybe they have to give up a lot of camp items or move their camp? Something unrelated to challenges, probably.

Outside of speculation, what "spoiler" stuff do we have? Certainly, from the looks of next week I would say that everyone has achieved "major weight loss" so that's no longer helpful. Maralyn's pals maybe, but I don't see that coming through. Helicopter spoiler false. No one claiming inside source predicted this right.

Editingwise, I noticed that other than Lis/Jerri, Nick got relatively more screen time than he has been getting, unlike, say, Rodger. Seemed like we saw some extra Nick. No extra ACTK.

One thing we DO have is Tina's ravenousness at home. She got to the final three, or I'll eat my hat. But that could be from all-Ogakor, from KTRE alliance, or from winning immunity vs. Kucha plus Amber.

Anyway, if Amber goes back, Nick is the obvious choice.

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 03:12 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
Nick knows he is in trouble. So if he is smart he will become Amber's new bestfriend. He needs to put on his flirtin' shoes and go courting Amber. Let her know that they are both the outsiders and they need each other. Get her on his side and convince her to vote with him (which is with Kucha) against the evil players who got rid of her friend Jerri. It saves Nick and he needs saving now.
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Remy617 30 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 03:34 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
I agree with your logic, taking a strictly "Nick" view and I suspect Vampkira would back you up here as well. While I think the dynamic exist for Nick to try to insulate himself since EXPLODING on the radar after weeks in stealth-mode, the real drama and what I think will make Ep10 worth watching will be how Amber deals with the overall situation.

The saying goes, "that no Man is an island", well, this girl is about as close as you will ever get, as of last night's Ep. If anyone has to put on the "flirtin' shoes", it's gotta be Amber. God, was the shot of her hanging her head in realization she had backed the wrong horse, priceless or what? I wish we could have had a shot of who slept next to whom when they got back to camp!

Amber working something out with Nick would be logical, but I think we will see her trying to worm her way back into the good graces of the Ogawhores and get to the Final Four that way. I think she would sell-out Nick now to prove she was back on the team. Should she tie in with Nick and the Kuchas, then kiss the Colbster goodbye, along with the rest of the Ogas...don't see it happening, though.

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md23rewls 23 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 04:49 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
At first I thought that giving up immunity for rice made sense. But, we all know that Nick is the main target. I can see Amber voting him off before joining the rest of the Kuchas. It would give her a better chance for immunity in the final four. MB knows that Nick is the target right now, so why would he make it so easy for Nick to get the boot? I think that the RC will be for videos from home. The choice is for every person who decides not to get the video, they are given a cup of rice. That is why Nick,Colby,Keith, and Rodger are in the water. They have given up their chance for a glimpse of home. On the website it states that there are natural consequences for all but two, and that everyone benefits from the RC. Therefore, maybe one more of them decides to give up the videos from home for rice. I think it is Elizabeth, because of the pics where she is crying.
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22. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
>We no longer
>need to discuss Kucha getting
>Pagonged

Wrong! It is still VERY possible that the Kuchas can get waxed one by one, unless Immunity intervenes. It's not altogether LIKELY that we'll see an all-Ogakor Final Four, but it IS possible.

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

"If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-01, 08:41 PM (EST)
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25. "'Natural Consequences'"
The reward challenge brings joy to all... but not without its "natural consequences" for all but two.

I am sitting here pondering the phrase " it's 'natural consequences' for all but two...

OK... this is gonna sound a little whacko but hear me out...

We have a group of people who have been extremely little food for weeks... then a reward challenge occurs where the food supply dramatically increases... just suppose they decided to make a larger than normal pot of rice to celebrate and over eat just a little (it doesn't take much when your stomach is entirely empty and you are feeling weak)...

What happens when that food hits your stomach?

Well, the old tummy rebels and the 'natural consequence' is that you vomit... if they all start feeling queasy and one vomits... four more could respond with 'sympathy hurls' of their own... if all 'but two' of the tribe members are sick after eating that could be the meaning of 'natural consequences' of the reward challenge...

Believe it or not I have some documentary support for this idea. In the Mitchell transcript he states that he vomited several times after eating on the night he was voted off and he wasn't as starved as these people.

Well... I can't believe I'm about to hit the 'Post Message' key to talk about 'mass sympathy puking'... but it's as good a theory as any out there now... even if it is a little distasteful...

I may not be any good at analysis...

but I hope I'm at least good for a laugh!


IceCat

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03-30-01, 09:33 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: 'Natural Consequences'"
That is a very interesting theory. Ties into my "what Kel shoulda done when Scerri accused him of eating Jerky" theory. {bleh}

-- JV

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03-30-01, 09:55 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: 'Natural Consequences'"
For Traci Gold's (Growing Pains) sake, if your theory is true, I hope she isn't watching. I'd hate for her to have a relapse!

This is, by far, the most hilarious theory we've had For Ep 10. Hey, IceCat, weren't you the one who blessed us with the Sea Faring Kangaroo story? At least you make this fun. Oh, and for the record, pass the "grass" this way!

Lizz Just Is

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34. "Hey, Don't Bogart That Bamboo!"
Heh heh...

Bulemic Barramundi

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03-30-01, 10:23 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: 'Natural Consequences'"
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-01 AT 00:16 AM (EST)

Yes I agree. The reward challenge is either a group challenge, where the group competes together in some sort of "all or nothing" competition, or the winner is allowed to share.

The reward is food, and it is either something that they can't digest very well, like cheese or meat, or they eat too much too fast and suffer the "natural consequences". All but two come down with diahrea, constipation, or nausea (squirts, plugs or pukes). Take your pick.

The "two" who don't get sick could very well be the only two who have recently had normal food: Cobly and Amber.

Knowing this doesn't tell us much, but if someone got sick enough, it could explain why someone shows a "lack of effort" and is "clearly pulling less weight than the others".

Laziness could get you a few votes, illness probably wouldn't.

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03-30-01, 09:23 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
Okay... now that we've had an opportunity to take a step back, evaluate
and re-watch what went on last night… It STILL doesn't make sense!!!

That be said, I do however have the following observations:

From the episode itself:
o Keith was determined to vote off Jerri. Colby knew it was a bad idea...
Tina looked awfully skeptical... but if Keith was determined... did it
matter? No.
o No one told Amber.
o No one told Lis... or did they? Sure didn't look like it at TC! but
then again you don't know the order of when K/T/C and T/L had their
little pow-wow's... and if you are the target and it seemed like a
bad move... would you believe it until it happened?
o Amber was committed to Jerri to the end... why don't they like each
other now? Something at the ranch... something in the vote...
something in their personal make-up... doesn't tell us as much as we
might want it to.
o Nick was right, he would have been gone if he didn't win IC
o Nick's not "the mole"... yet
o Tina, Colby, and Keith were definitely more allied than we were led
to believe... up to now.
o We were shown how the alliances worked in this episode more than I
EVER expected to see... does this mean they are no longer valid? or
was it necessary to justify the TC vote...
o Jerri was more committed to Colby than was good for her Outback health
sing after me... hormones are a BAD BAD thing!
o Colby got points for the coral thing... but will it help him or make
him a bigger target?
o Jerri's hissy before the RC pairing was the last straw
o Keith's in trouble
o Colby's in trouble
o Nick's in trouble
o Maybe THEY should form a TARGET alliance... hum... corporate sponsor
anyone?

From the series thus far:
o Nice people may not always finish last... but from here on out strong
ones will be targeted.
o Jerri could never be edited in a way that she was not depicted as
evil... it just wouldn't have worked in the grand scheme of things.
o Will anyone be an easy vote from here on out?... except maybe Amber?
o Everyone left is a lot more likeable than the last bunch... maybe
MB wasn't lying about that (ie we'll like the outcome)
o who will provide the conflict from here on out? Keith? Colby? Amber?
o Who do you think was the most SHOCKED when Jerri was dumped? Us
or MB? MB!

From the spoilers:
o Weight loss spoiler's... good so far... are Tina and Lis next?
o Mad Dog... needs to make a new friend... Rodger gone soon?
o Aboriginal final 4 - DEAD if you see Jerri... questionable if you
see Keith...
o Tina's phone call home... not likely to happen next episode
o Intro picture border... DEAD
o Amber/Lis final nothing to prove/disprove yet.
o Disgruntled CBS employee... DEAD
o Things get interesting... confirmed.
o Liz rocks in challenges... yet to be seen.

From the previews:
o Reality sets in... do alliances shift?
o MB makes the tribe a bad deal... that they must accept... no IC?
something worse?
o Flooding inevitable... time to move?
o Is it just me or does Amber looks lonely and sad... kinda like a
kicked puppy...
o What's up with Lis? Shouldn't she look a little happy? I swear she's
crying in every shot!
o Someone's not helping... who can afford not to... Amber?
o Let's make a deal... rice... alliances... both?
o Everyone enjoys RC... all but two get the negative side effects? ...
what in the name of MB does that mean!?!
o If the water shot is the rice "deal"... NO one looks pleased! Even
Rodger who should care less about not having to compete in an IC...
look at that grimace! ... it's something WORSE... but what?


Anything glaringly omitted? Any comments?

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missalex 35 desperate attention whore postings
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33. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
Okay, okay. There seems to be a ton of speculation going on, but it really can be narrowed down to a few options on the alliance stuff.

OPTION ONE: Amber goes over to remaining Kuchas and forms an alliance with them. This option would result in an Ogakor being voted off, probably Colby or Keith since they are the biggest immunity threats.

REASONS WHY THIS MAY HAPPEN: Amber might join the Kuchas because she feels hurt that the Ogakors didn't tell her about Jerri, they kicked off her best friend, etc. Also, if Amber is smart enough to realize this (or if a Kucha points this out to her to convince her to be on their side), in the final four, she has a much better chance in winning immunity (at least if it's somewhat physical) against E/R/N than K/C/T. Winning immunity in the final four if she is with E/R/N is important to Amber because the former Kuchas would probably vote against her, assuming that Nick and Amber don't make a pact to vote off Elisabeth or Rodger in the final four - if that happened, A/N would probably target Elisabeth (because she has the most previous votes), and E/R would target...well, I don't know, but it doesn't really matter as both Nick and Amber don't have any previous votes. However, the previous votes thing could change, and that is thinking really far ahead.

REASONS WHY THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN: K/T and even Colby just saved Elisabeth by voting for Jerri...is Elisabeth that "mean" to turn on the people who just saved her...?

OPTION TWO: Keith, Tina, Rodger, and Elisabeth join up to form the much-wanted "Good Guys Alliance."

REASONS WHY THIS MAY HAPPEN: I really don't know. They seem to sorta like each other...still dunno. However, for some reason, it still seems possible. Maybe because of Tina's "I want good people to win" comment (okay, that wasn't word for word, but you get the picture)...would Mark B. really put it in the show if it didn't have any significance at all? Remember, after that comment, they showed Jerri smashing wood or something with an axe - Tina and Keith voted off Jerri...

REASONS WHY THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN: Keith has more previous votes (having three) than Elisabeth (having two) and Rodger (having zero). If all of them go to the final four and Keith/Tina vote for Rodger or Elisabeth, and Elisabeth/Rodger vote for Keith, Keith would lose the tiebreaker. Of course, previous votes could change and immunity means a lot in the final four...

OPTION THREE: Amber goes back to the Ogakors, and they continue to pick off Kucha.

REASONS WHY THIS MAY HAPPEN: Well, this guarantees the Ogakors all the spots to the final four. That's the only thing I can really think of.

REASONS WHY THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN: Amber might feel hurt about the Jerri boot and she doesn't want to go back to the Ogakors. Also, Amber might feel that she has a better chance for immunity (at least of the challenges are somewhat physical) with E/R/N instead of C/K/T.

That's all the options that I can think of. Unless if something happens that is really is out of the ordinary, these are the most LOGICAL prections that I can think of.

Feel free to comment, correct, etc... ;)

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Emma Peel 8 desperate attention whore postings
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37. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
"The reward challenge brings joy to all... but not without its "natural consequences" for all but two."

Elisabeth and Amber are both pictured crying in the preview clips..are these the "two"? They are both young girls..perhaps the reward is videos from home, and these two become overcome with homesickness (natural consequences)...like Jenna last time. Everyone else enjoys watching the winner's tape..but these two crack up. And then we have the obligatory "Elisabeth Explains it All" clip sitting away from the group. Perhaps?

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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings
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03-31-01, 01:14 AM (EST)
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39. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
Here's what I think happens. I can't peg what the consequences of taking the food are. It seems to me that they opt NOT to take the food which turns out to be the wrong decision. Maybe it was NO reward challenge for three bags of rice? The reward challenge is in teams. They are at the water picking sides (guy/girl) with one to be left out. From all the pics combined, it looks like teams are Tina/Colby, Elisabeth/Keith, Amber/Nick. (Dont' think any one would pick Rodger). The prize could be a call home, and the crying is due to the fact that they missed out on the chance. This would suffice the Tina talking to her kids spoiler, and would make sense as to who wins the challenge since the females are probably pretty equal and Colby is by FAR the best of the men for athletic competition.

Once again we get absolutely no clue to what the Immunity Challenge is. I'm guessing it is going to be more of a mental challenge this time since the past few have been physical.

I think the "natural consequences" for all but two is a clue to the reward challenge being a team competition and two win it meaning the natural consequences are simply having lost the challenge.

Amber's smartest thing to do would be to stay with Ogakor. From the past we know that J/A were under the impression the K/T were aligned and C was the swing vote. By aligning with C at this point (whether she likes it or not), barring who gets votes, she makes final 3. If Colby wins immunity, Keith goes. If Keith wins Colby goes. Whether she runs by emotion or by smarts will determine which choice she makes.

Also, Jerri is the only Ogie that was percieved as evil. We have never seen K/T or C bash any one else; so when it comes down to any Kucha over their existing team, they'd vote the Kuch.

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vviCKed 56 desperate attention whore postings
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03-31-01, 05:38 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"

Unless Nick wins Immunity again, he is gone. Here is why:

1) He told Keith he is ready to go.
2) He really does not seem tight with Rodger or Lis and is a Kucha member, not a Okagor.
3) Colby talked about voting for Jerri as a risk. I can't see him voting another member of Okagor off this week.
5) Rodger is no threat. Boston newspaper (which has been pretty good on it's tips says Lis makes final 4)

I think this upcoming week is pretty simple.

_________________________________
“What’s about to happen is either Meyer’s out of here, or Meyer orchestrated one of the biggest upsets in military history.”

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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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03-31-01, 10:31 AM (EST)
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45. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
I have to agree that so far it's looking pretty easy in a very Aliciaesque fashion. There is that off chance that Amber does vote with Nick sending either Colby or Keith home, but I don't think so. It would not be in character for her to venture off to essentially get the same, if not worse, results.

It's been said several times, but Amber's long-term chances look better with the Ogies then with Kucha. It is just more likely that, once down to four, K/T/C will be stabbing at each other, not Amber. If she stays with the Ogies, I think she has a great chance of making, and losing, Final 2.

BUT....that all depends on what happens with the GGA. One thought to add to that: I think we should not be too quick to believe the GGA would consist of R/L/T/K - Colby could very easily replace Keith.

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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-01, 00:07 AM (EST)
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47. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
P2S nice final point... who ever said Keith was one of the good guys? He's probably the most obnoxious one left...
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CowboyColby 7 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-01, 10:02 AM (EST)
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49. "Nope, that would be Amber"
Amber is more obnoxious than Keith.
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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings
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04-03-01, 11:09 AM (EST)
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55. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
Can't be rice in exchange for no RC... JP says "You've got 13 more days" meaning that the rice deal is offered on day 29, and the RC has already been held by that time.

The immunity challenge is the one we have pictures of...with the fire and Teeter-Totter-Towers.

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anotherkim 14420 desperate attention whore postings
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04-03-01, 10:51 AM (EST)
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54. "A food reward would bring joy to all......M"
and I agree with those above that "natural consequences" is refering to some sort of digestive distress (I have been trying to post that idea for days, but my connection keeps locking up). The phrasing cleans it up for tv (who wants a preview with a mention of the big D or puking??) and it also has enough other meanings to get people speculating about which two might be sacrificed or come out poorly.

I think they would offer the food to the tribe as a whole--especially if things are as dire as they make them out to be. Ratings matter and no one is going to want to watch a bunch of people sitting on a beach starving. Plus, those are big bags of rice and how could you only give it to one or two members or the tribe?

Now, as for what the food that brings joy is, I don't know--is it just rice or is there in the mix that might actually cause natural consequences??

And, for what it is worth, right now I think Nick gets the boot--Liz wins IC.

Kim

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SherpaDave 8326 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-01, 03:10 PM (EST)
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56. "bump"
to move ahead of skierdude's exclamation points from hell
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IM_Nessie 17 desperate attention whore postings
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04-04-01, 06:21 PM (EST)
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57. "RE: Early E10 Discussion"
Does Amber change sides? Yes. Even though we haven't seen much Amber/Lis bonding, it is clear from her vote explaination that they have become friends. MB just hid that from us.

"Elizabeth, this is gonna be... the hardest vote yet... and the hardest vote for the rest of the game... but the only reason why I am making it is because I made a word with my original tribe and... I wanna stick to my word..."

Since the Ogies had been voting unanimously since the merger, it is clear that Amber and Jerri were led to believe that Lis was the next target. Not only did C/T/K not stick to their word, but they have made it clear to Amber that she's on a lower tier as far as tribe loyalty is concerned.

Amber must carry some residual hostility towards whiney Keith due to his feud with Jerri. She may even suspect that he was the force behind her ouster. And she can't be too thrilled with his performance as a teammate in the last RC (did anyone else notice that he lagged far behind Amber?)

The only way I see Amber voting with her tribe is if Keith wins immunity. She's not going to turn on Colby or Tina just yet. So if Keith wins then it's good-bye Nick.

Of course, I haven't voted yet so I may read a scenario that convinces me of something entirely different!

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