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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-29-01, 11:04 PM (EST) "good move by BT and KKK..." The key moment to tonight's show was the tent talk b/w KKK, BT and the Colbster. Did you guys see how intense Colby was about "sticking with the plan" as KKK talked about dumping Scerri...I'm sure BT and KKK noticed it as well. They HAD to realize what we all realized, that in an all-ogakor final 5, it would be better for Colby to go into the final three with J/A as opposed to T/K....dumping Scerri essentially cut the legs out from under Colby...he's screwed now. BT and KKK are clearly the power players at this point in the game...let's look at their choices now. 1. Stick with the Ogakor alliance: out of conveinence, Colby and Amber stick with BT and KKK to get rid of the remaining 3 Kucha's and enter the final 4 with a 2-2 matchup...anyone's game at that point. 2. Good Guy's Alliance: Join up with Lizliz and KJ in an alliance of 4....for this to work they might have to get rid of Nick first to eliminate KJ/Liz's options for defection. then they can pick off Colby and Amber and move into the final four where both Lizliz and KKK are tied with 3 votes apiece (I think) the key is, whereas before this episode the Colbster was the one with options, now it is KKK and BT who hold the cards. But, there is one more scenario I want to discuss but I'll open up a new thread for that one since it's a little more obscure.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    K and T in control Play2Survive 03-29-01 1    not so fast on the "i told you so's... shakes the clown 03-30-01 2        RE: not so fast on the "i told you ... Play2Survive 03-30-01 3            RE: not so fast on the "i told you ... idiotcowboy 03-30-01 4                Hmmm, missing groundwork? Play2Survive 03-30-01 5                    RE: Hmmm, missing groundwork? idiotcowboy 03-30-01 7        colby's vote and words dangerkitty 03-30-01 6  Or BAD MOVE by C/T sleeeve 03-30-01 8    C/T AyatollahKhomeini 03-30-01 9        Amber’s options StratPlayer 03-30-01 11        Vote Count Knowledge? Krautboy 03-30-01 20        RE: C/T George Tirebiter 03-30-01 23        RE: C/T PepeLePew13 03-31-01 26    RE: Or BAD MOVE by C/T bornon4thJuly 03-30-01 15        Reading the Votes sleeeve 03-30-01 16            RE: Reading the Votes SurvivinDawg 03-31-01 30  Maybe for BT but not Keith StratPlayer 03-30-01 10    RE: Keith's celebration Outfrontgirl 03-30-01 12  The show is interesting again... IceCat 03-30-01 13    Courage, IceCat... SurvivinDawg 03-30-01 17    Take heart, logic will return Play2Survive 03-31-01 24  RE: good move by BT and KKK... Loree 03-30-01 14    RE: good move by BT and KKK... SurvivinDawg 03-30-01 18        RE: good move by BT and KKK... Loree 03-30-01 19            RE: good move by BT and KKK... idiotcowboy 03-30-01 21                RE: good move by BT and KKK... cowboyroo 03-30-01 22                    RE: good move by BT and KKK... SurvivinDawg 03-31-01 31    RE: good move by BT and KKK... Play2Survive 03-31-01 25        Amber should wait for EP11 Krautboy 03-31-01 27        RE: good move by BT and KKK... Loree 03-31-01 28            couple questions nagging me kirin 03-31-01 29                RE: couple questions nagging me SurvivinDawg 03-31-01 32                    don't put too much stock in missed ... shakes the clown 03-31-01 33                        RE: don't put too much stock in mis... Loree 04-01-01 34

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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-29-01, 11:45 PM (EST) 1. "K and T in control" It's terribly difficult not to say I told you so.....but, I really really did. In a thread titled something like "Why Jerri can't go in Ep9" I presented a theory that K and T can snatch control right out of Colby's hands by destroying their competition for his vote: J&A. Krautboy, SDawg and a few others added to this thread, but for the most part the sentiment was that C/T/K were a team and T/K had no reason to believe otherwise. I hoped and hoped that T/K would figure out that Colby would not take them to final 3 over Jerri and Amber. And they came through! This is why the tent scene was so brilliant. Tina and Keith were testing Colby. They had no way of knowing if he would keep his word, so they figured they'd ask him to vote out Jerri and see how he responded. Of course, he put his head down (first sign of a liar) and said no - stick to the plan. Well then and there Keith and Tina got their answer, and the Colbster's gig was up. I don't believe they told anyone how they would vote. My god, did you see Keith's satisfaction when JP asked Jerri to bring her tourch? When it was first discussed many people astutely questioned my theory based on the unreliability of Amber. Could she defect to Kucha? Basically I argued that Amber will be a lost sheep without Jerri and will cling to those closest to her: Colby, Tina. IF Tina convinces her that she and Keith are back to plan, she won't risk it. No doubt we will be discussing Amber a lot this coming week. But.....for now, K/T definitely have control, because the likelihood of C/A and L/R/N teaming with each other is much slimmer than either of them teaming with K/T. Essentially, K/T can decide now who they want to go to the end with. But they better act fast. Remember next week's episode is "Let's Make a Deal," so no doubt we'll be speculating about who's involved in the deal. I'll save my thoughts on that for another thread. For now, I can say that I am convinced K and T are now playing the best game.   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-30-01, 00:06 AM (EST) 2. "not so fast on the "i told you so's"" >It's terribly difficult not to say >I told you so.....but, I >really really did. In >a thread titled something like >"Why Jerri can't go in >Ep9" I presented a theory >that K and T can >snatch control right out of >Colby's hands by destroying their >competition for his vote: J&A. ......I think just about EVERYONE agreed that KKK and BT needed to get rid of Scerri before the final 5 for obvious reasons, but the fact is that if Nick didn't win Immunity tonight, Scerri's still here tomorrow. What it came down to was, BT and KKK didn't want to give up the option of the Good-Guy-Alliance (GGA) I'm rewatching the tape right now, I thought the vote was 5-3 but someone just posted it was 6-2....I need to see if the Colbster was in on the plan.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-30-01, 00:15 AM (EST) 3. "RE: not so fast on the "i told you so's"" Right. We need to know how Colby voted. It's still not posted on the website either. But Shakes, I heard a lot of people, in fact perhaps a majority, contending that Ogie would not break up and Kucha would get picked off one by one. And I agree that Nick HAD to win immunity or we'd still be dealing with Jerri. The turning point was when Liz became the target. K/T were not willing to give up L or R just yet. Smart, smart, smart...... Hope it doesn't bite them in the @$$. I've got a theory bouncing around in my head, supported by hunch, on how that just might happen. Nick may still have the chance to be the mole yet!   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 03-30-01, 00:56 AM (EST) 4. "RE: not so fast on the "i told you so's"" Ok P2S I was one of the nay sayers... you were right... and I was wrong... happy? BTW Colby definitely voted for Jerri.. it's on the site with a video link that doesn't appear to work yet (for me). I disagree with your analysis though... I felt Keith was insistent but Tina sure looked like she was agreeing with Colby for the most part (I need to rewatch)... Regardless C/T knew that Keith's vote was ALL that was necessary (previous Jerri votes, 4-4 tie... Jerri's gone)... and if he was insistent HE was in control... might as well cast you lot with him and go down as a team... NOW their fate is in the hands of AMBER (unless they can work a deal with Nick "the mole")... and they just double-crossed her best friend... Also, if it was a test for Colby... he passed... not for sure it matters anymore though, as he AND Keith are easy targets here on out. My final thought on this is it was NOT logical it was emotional... if you had a backup plan... if you worked over Amber beforehand... or Nick... or any of the kucha's... well then I could almost buy your argument... but knowing how it shook out... I'd bet against you every time...   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-30-01, 01:14 AM (EST) 5. "Hmmm, missing groundwork?" )... Regardless C/T >knew that Keith's vote was >ALL that was necessary (previous >Jerri votes, 4-4 tie... Jerri's >gone)... and if he was >insistent HE was in control... >might as well cast you >lot with him and go >down as a team... Interesting that the last time one of Jerri's kids went down, it was Keith, Tina and Colby that cast the votes. NOW >their fate is in the >hands of AMBER (unless they >can work a deal with >Nick "the mole")... and they >just double-crossed her best friend... > See below. >Also, if it was a test >for Colby... he passed... No I don't think so. Keith wanted to see if Colby would consider voting for Jerri. He wouldn't. And at that point Keith knew he could not trust him. The part they didn't show is where Keith makes it clear that he's doing it anyway. At that point, Colby's been found out. not >for sure it matters anymore >though, as he AND Keith >are easy targets here on >out. Agreed. Unless they stay together and keep T and A with them. (No, not THAT T & A, Tina and Amber, but isn't it the same thing). >My final thought on this is >it was NOT logical it >was emotional... if you had >a backup plan... if you >worked over Amber beforehand... or >Nick... or any of the >kucha's... well then I could >almost buy your argument... but >knowing how it shook out... >I'd bet against you every >time... Yep. I agree. It WAS - or it COULD HAVE BEEN - a logical intelligent choice. The groundwork you talk about is what I had thought would happen. I thought Tina would have taken Amber aside and told her the plan - assuring her that she is not the target. The fact that Amber was all alone in not voting for Jerri proves the groundwork wasn't laid. You're getting my wheels turning. I'm thinking Keith may be in trouble.   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 03-30-01, 01:37 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Hmmm, missing groundwork?" I'm positive Keith's in trouble... and likely from Colby and Tina if Amber can be brought back into the fold... otherwise we'll be talking kucha strategy from here on out... and it won't matter much what C/T or K think anymore . BTW... I'm convinced that Keith is the biggest dumba$$ in the Outback... C/T had no choice but to go along whether they agreed with it or not.   Top

dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 03-30-01, 01:16 AM (EST) 6. "colby's vote and words" cbs website has video of Colby's words while voting: "Jerri, jerri, jerri....you're buggin' everyone out here. That knock you keep hearin' on your door? It's housekeeping. It's check out time." Go Cowboy! I wonder how Jerri liked watching tonights episode? heehee   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-30-01, 02:26 AM (EST) 8. "Or BAD MOVE by C/T" Just a word of defense, but I think my Colby/Tina Alliance Theory could still hold. Recall from tonight's episode: Tina tells Liz that either her or Rodger will be voted out (Tina does not want to vote with Keith for Jerri). Colby tries to do everything to convince Keith not to vote for Jerri. Once again, Tina and Colby appear to be allied in their goals for the Tribal Council... Since the beginning, these two have NEVER been split in who they voted for and they have ALWAYS voted for the eventual evictee... coincidence? BUT... Keith is set in his ways and will vote for Jerri, who will lose on a tie-breaker. So Tina and Colby can join Keith, and risk losing Amber (who may defect to the Kucha next week) Or they can join A/J and risk losing Keith in a defection. Or they can split up and Tina and Keith can vote out Jerri while Colby votes with A/J to make it look good, and ultimately, Colby holds the alliance together as Amber's friend. I think C/T felt Amber was less likely to defect than Keith was, so they went with Keith and voted for Jerri as a last resort. BUT... there is a risk Amber will defect, knowing she has no allies in the Ogie tribe, and is at best fourth-to-last. Colby should have voted for Liz to try to hang on to Amber. Just trying to provide other explanations for what we witnessed tonight.   Top

AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 03-30-01, 03:25 AM (EST) 9. "C/T" sleeeve, now that I know that the vote was 6-2 (I posted it incorrectly earlier), I agree that C/T may have felt they were over a barrel if Keith wanted Jerri off. His vote would have been all that was needed, and ultimately they went along with it. I wish I had some way of knowing which one of the survivors was not pulling his weight (as the preview talked about), because Amber's options to defect this week may be limited. On the other hand, she could go along with the other Ogies in E10 (as long as she didn't become Kucha's new target) and then switch sides in a 3-3 tiebreak in E11 to knock out either Colby or Keith. It still looks bleak for Nick in E10. Prior vote count for tiebreaker purposes: Colby: 5 Keith: 3 Elisabeth: 2 Amber, Tina, Rodger, Nick: 0   Top

StratPlayer 27 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-30-01, 04:20 AM (EST) 11. "Amber’s options" It seems to me Amber has only one option, to run from the folks who lied to her, namely C/K/T. Amber clearly went to TC thinking Liz was the target of the C/J/A/T/K alliance. I don’t see how Amber won’t be very worried that C/K/T will lie to her again. This has already been discussed at length by those (like me) who thought Jerri would be safe in E9.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-30-01, 07:53 PM (EST) 20. "Vote Count Knowledge?" Do we have any evidence that the prior vote count is known by the former opposing tribes? I don't think so... Ogakor "knows" Liz has 2. Kucha "knows" Colby has 5. Kucha "suspects" Keith has some. (because of the "Tina, I need this one" comment.) The Ogakor don't know about Rodger or Nick. The Kucha don't know about Amber or Tina. They would have no reason to exchange this information with the "opposing tribe" unless it came out during the forming of a new cross-tribe alliance, which has not occured yet. So, it seems that in the event of any tie-breaker type situation, Colby, Keith and Liz are the only real targets at this time. While it doesn't matter in EP10, it may in the planning for EP11.   Top

George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-30-01, 11:20 PM (EST) 23. "RE: C/T" >sleeeve, now that I know that the vote was 6-2 (I posted it incorrectly earlier) Hey! When Jerri was giving her final word, they showed the voting--and I swear I read 5 "Jerri" and 3 "Elizabeth." My daughter saw it, too, and we turned to each other simultaneously (with eyes popping with delight) and said, "TWO of them voted "Jerri," and neither one was Amber!" (I'd been convinced she would turn, but she's apparently so clueless, she wouldn't consider deviating from any alliance.) But then, my daughter's not yet 12, and I was short on sleep. Maybe we didn't see clearly enough (it IS a 36" teevee. . .). Still, gotta thank AK and krautboy for convincing me to vote correctly in the poll (how sweet it is!)--and to think I was frustrated by the lack of decisive sleuthing for 2 weeks! I do find it amusing that in her post-show interviews, Jerri seems clueless about her nature, or peoples' reactions to it. . . everything is excused because of "creative editing" ("they left out a lot of tender moments with me and Mitchell and Amber!") and she seems unable to process the concept that she really might be an unlikeable person. . . Suddenly, this game got infinitely more watchable, and in light of who's likely to be left standing at the end, I think I can live with whoever wins the million! More sugar!!! GT   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-31-01, 09:00 AM (EST) 26. "RE: C/T" If you remember, it was Nick who was flopping around and lazing about while talking with Liz and Rodger before the upcoming IC. Liz and Rodger were busy taking care of little things around the camp and Nick sounded like he had basically given up all hope and saying he was ready to go - and he's already lazy, so why not flop around even more while talking to the others? So... IMO that's who was not pulling his weight as in the preview and setting him up with increased exposure for getting the boot tattooed to his rear end in Ep10. (or it could simply be referring to Jerri getting tossed about like a rag doll by Colby in the RC, lol)   Top

bornon4thJuly 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 03-30-01, 02:50 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Or BAD MOVE by C/T" I agree with your comments but don't forget that JP did not read all the votes. Colby can tell Amber that he voted for Lis and Keith and Tina can back him up.   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-30-01, 04:21 PM (EST) 16. "Reading the Votes" In every TC since the beginning of time (ie: S1), the only time that votes have gone unread is if ALL of the rest of the votes were for the loser. The ONLY exception to this was when there was a landslide vote against Kimmi, and I think it was poor judgement on the part of the producers to change the rules, but I think they were all unprepared for the rain (notice how wet JP gets) and just wanted to get out of there... they (wrongly) figured that the one vote didn't matter. However, I think that it would be difficult for Colby to convince Amber that he had voted for Liz... Amber will realize that if there had been even one more vote for Liz, it surely would have been read to highten the suspense. Sorry, but Amber knows she was the only one not to vote for Jerri, and she's gonna be worried about it.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-31-01, 06:15 PM (EST) 30. "RE: Reading the Votes" Once again, consider the editing. They may show the contestants the remaining votes AFTER the bootee has left. They also might not; this is merely a suggestion to one poossibility. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH   Top

StratPlayer 27 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-30-01, 03:39 AM (EST) 10. "Maybe for BT but not Keith" It might good for K/T in the short run because the possibility of Colby siding against them in favor of A/J is now removed. However I think this was shortsighted for Keith. He would have been better off with all the Kuchas getting picked off. Tina is playing this smarter. She knows Colby/Keith are going to be targets with the Okie alliance busting up and Tina is already getting buddy buddy with Liz. IMO, Tina is going far and Keith is in trouble.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-01, 04:52 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Keith's celebration" I recall speculation that Keith was out because of his book promo coming up. Could it be he timed it instead with what must have been a very satisfying episode for him? I don't know why either Keith or Tina would hold it against Colby for trying to get Keith to wait til the Jerri boot was safe. Sure, they all have their private agendas and various paranoias, but Colby was merely arguing conservatively and cautiously, and he did go along. I'm wondering if Tina (or other Ogie) informed the Kuchas their vote for Jerri was getting support. After all, just because Lis said she was voting for Jerri doesn't mean the Kuchas mightn't have given up on that and formed a Plan B. A little risky for 3 to vote for Jerri without knowing the 4th/5th were there for sure; however, it looked to me like Lis had no idea she was saved. She looked like she was preparing for her exit on National TV and having a hard time with it. Speaking of Lis' expression, the vid cap from last week in which I thought she looked worried turned out to be from the moment she saw Nick won immunity and knew the hit was out on her. It's good to know I read something right. I was so wrong this week. I thought the Ogies would stay cautious until only 2 K's left. I totally agree with above that it was the Nick immunity/ impending Lis boot that caused the shift. Someone (Tina, I think) wanted to keep her, but I doubt she shared that with Colby. Keith I think just wanted rid of Jerri and then back to the Ogie sweep, but I think he's miscalculated and that reports of the Kucha tribe's extinction have been prematurely reported.   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-01, 05:29 AM (EST) 13. "The show is interesting again..." This is by far the best thing that could have happened in EP9. The show is much more interesting when the group dynamics are more fractured. I must tip my furry IceCap to the the old pros here who (no doubt due their long time experience) made an excellent call on the both the IC winner and the bootee. I am well and truly shaken by the utter failure of my deeply held belief that the tribes would vote logically. I am sitting here in the dark, periodically looking out the window and waiting for the sun to come out. I need to see if the grass is still green and the sky is still blue For now, I think that I shall limit my activities to short term tactical analysis of video evidence and leave the long term strategic predictions to the big boys. On a very positive note... If I had to be wrong a grand scale I am oh so glad to be wrong on this one On to EP10...   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-01, 04:41 PM (EST) 17. "Courage, IceCat..." Courage, IceCat! Where's that Vulcan spirit of yours? My grass is still brown (drought) and the sky is still gray (ah, finally, some rain!) but don't give up your stimulating strategic predictions! *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-31-01, 08:14 AM (EST) 24. "Take heart, logic will return" Hey IceCat, Yes, I hear you, it can be devastating to see people make decisions before your are eyes that you know very well will seal their doomed fate. It's like a good Shakespearean tragedy, huh? But even in Shakespeare, a villian is usually sacraficed along with the hero. But do we have a hero?...... Looking to you for more help in E10. P2S   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-01, 02:07 PM (EST) 14. "RE: good move by BT and KKK..." Keith and Tina were smart. One of the reasons I kept saying Jerri was going this episode was because Tina and Keith could take control away from Colby by voting off Jerri. And they did it. Colby has lost his alternative to their alliance. I love it when people do what I said they would do. I felt alone with my choice for quite awhile. I was saying Jerri would go and people thought I was crazy. Then people started seeing the light and realized Jerri could go & she did. Yippee!!!   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-01, 04:44 PM (EST) 18. "RE: good move by BT and KKK..." Agreed, Loree! Although I said that Colby needed to go ahead and choose sides, this is still better for Tina and Keith. And you were not alone in your choice... WE felt very alone for awhile there and I felt especially alone when told my vote for Jerri was "emotional" even though it wasn't. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-01, 05:34 PM (EST) 19. "RE: good move by BT and KKK..." Yes SurvivinDawg you seemed to be the only person that didn't think it was an emotional vote but a practical one.   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 03-30-01, 08:59 PM (EST) 21. "RE: good move by BT and KKK..." It's true Dawg and P2S and you (as well as many many others) picked Jerri... but at least YOU used logic to come up with YOUR reasons... the K/C/T combo... EMOTION RULES... go figure. I'm with icecat... if I can't use logic I might as well stop playing   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-30-01, 10:56 PM (EST) 22. "RE: good move by BT and KKK..." Has anyone thought of the idea that Amber may have been playing a Kelly. Maybe she knew Jerri was going but wanted to keep Jerri's vote from the jury. Jerri would obviously know Amber was the one who didn't vote for her, and that would be one for sure vote on her side if she made the Final 2.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-31-01, 06:20 PM (EST) 31. "RE: good move by BT and KKK..." Good thinking, cowboyroo, what you say may be true. Looking at both sides of this: 1) Amber didn't hug Jerri on the way out (and I expected her to). 2) the cbr(cowboyroo) theory that Amber was helping herself for the jury by looking loyal. Other side: 1) Amber's reaction after Jerri gone. 2) Amber had said that she WANTED to talk to the other Ogies to find out if their plan was still on after Nick won immunity (to vote out Lis or Rodger). She either didn't get to talk to them or was lied to. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-31-01, 08:23 AM (EST) 25. "RE: good move by BT and KKK..." Loree, Oh do I understand! See now, I thought I was alone too, but I wasn't - I had you ..... and Dawg, and Krautboy, and AyaK ..... not bad company I have to say. I have to say this guessing game we play often requires a honed intuition over sound logic. I was with you in saying it would be SMART for T/K to take the power away from Colby, but my reason for choosing Jerri also had a lot to do with a very strong sense that this would happen and it would happen now. In the end, T/K dissapointed me ---- because they heard us, but they didn't hear every word. They needed to alert Amber and bring her over. The only to recover now is to explain to her why they didn't - that they needed to be sure Jerri didn't catch wind. Well, Loree .... I want to know what you're intuition is telling you for W10! I'm on a 3 week roll and want to keep it going.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-31-01, 11:53 AM (EST) 27. "Amber should wait for EP11" PS2, we're still thinking along the same lines. Good job last EP, yes, let's keep it going. Amber is sad and feeling left out, but she is currently way too passive to attempt any kind of rebellion. She's feeling sorry for herself. She has time to sit by herself and think. And if she uses any logic, she will come to the conclusion that she is better to wait one more Episode. She'll be much more emotinally stable to take it on, as well. The Ogakor can now reunite and plan to vote off the remaining Kucha. Amber makes it to the final four. But if the Ogakor get rid of Nick this time, THEN, Amber can make the move to the Kucha. At that point Amber, Liz and Rodger are guaranteed the final three, because they win the tie-breaker against either Keith or Colby. Amber makes the final three. (Dawg has also suggested this in the Early EP10 Discussion thread). It makes, LOGICAL sense,we'll see if it makes EMOTIONAL sense to Amber... So, Amber will stick around, and a Kucha will go in EP10.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-31-01, 03:33 PM (EST) 28. "RE: good move by BT and KKK..." My intuition hasn't zeroed in on anything yet. Logic tells me that Nick goes if he doesn't win immunity. He seems like he has accepted this fate. We found this week that Ogakor was quite ready to vote off Nick. They didn't seem to have an emotional attachment to him. But they did seem to have a little more trouble coming to the fact of kicking Rodger or Liz. But who would the Kucha want to boot? At this time I think the 3 are still voting together. (Visions of Mike and the burned hands, etc.) Nick is hugging Liz when she is moaning about food. So I don't think Liz and Rodger are ready to turn on Nick for a grouping with Keith and Tina against Nick. So who do they want to vote off? I don't believe it is Tina or Keith. They did vote against Colby the first week of the merge. And Amber was Jerri's friend. So my guess is they would want to vote one of these. Since they know Colby has votes. I'm guessing Colby. He would go if there was a tie. Amber is important here. If she votes with Ogakor then a Kucha goes. It will be Nick if there is no immunity for him. If Amber is upset she may just throw her vote anywhere like Kelly did. Then Colby could go in a tie. (If he doesn't have immunity.) If Colby has immunity I think Kucha may vote for Amber. Then she needs to stick with the Ogakor alliance to protect herself. Right now I am guessing Nick goes if he doesn't win the IC. Amber doesn't seem to make up her own mind who to vote for. She does seem to be a follower. I think she follows Colby and votes with him. (Unless that hair braiding party bonded her with Liz. LOL!)   Top

kirin 30 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-31-01, 06:02 PM (EST) 29. "couple questions nagging me" First of all please be kind, this is my first attempt at analysis. Yikes. Oh well, deep breath, here it goes... A couple of things have bothered me since watching Jerri get booted. First, there was obviously a lot more to the infamous tent talk than what we saw. Colby appeared adamant that they should stick to voting off a Kucha and was clearly worried about what would happen in case of a Amber defection. I respectfully disagree that Keith and Tina would be able to infer from this that Colby was playing both them and Jerri/Amber. If he is any kind of debater, Colby should have been able to make a very valid case as to why Jerri needed to stay at least one more episode without looking like a liar and schemer. There were enough of you who have argued same point quite convincingly in earlier posts regarding when Jerri would go. So what happened to change Colby's mind and what are the ramifications of that going to be? Even if Colby is able to flash his pearly whites at Amber constantly, she is going to remember the pact he made on the beach with her and Jerri. She might be a sorority chick (sorry for offending anyone, LOL) but she surely can't blindly trust him again, can she? Colby can't be too happy with that situation, whether Keith realized it or not, he forced Colby's hand and that's gotta be eating Colby. (However, he definitely appeared to relish actually writing Jerri's name down, and, yes I, too, noticed how much he threw her around during the RC. We got the biggest kick out of it at my house!) If I remember correctly Amber stated at some point after the IC that she needed to check with Okagor to see if the voting plan still was in place. Does that mean she was directly lied to, and if so, by whom? I could see her being shaken but easier to pacify if Jerri told her they were voting Lis, but not if Colby/Tina/Keith told her. By pacify, I mean one of them sucking up to her and saying "Keith was adamant" and that there was no way to avoid it, thus setting up Amber's resentment of Keith, while keeping her voting with Okagor. Tina's conversation with Lis is also a puzzler. My impression was that Tina didn't clue in Lis ahead of TC. I don't think Lis is that good of an actress, she allows too much of her emotions to show on her face. (I loved the look she had on her face when Jerri was sucking up pre-vote!) So what does that mean? Maybe nothing. Or maybe Tina was also set to vote off Lis until she too realized that Keith was set on voting Jerri off. At this point, Tina and Colby appear to be the biggest schemers remaining, and they at least appear more vulnerable without the solid Okagor 5. I think that either they have a backup plan (GGA?, or ties in with Colby-Tina alliance) and felt confident enough to allow Keith to prevail, or one of them (and my bet is Tina) is hedging bets with the Kucha clan by befriending them but also appearing to be honest in her assessment of the situation. She can now go to Lis and say "I saved you" and potentially get some loyalty from her. My last comment is related to Jerri's comment on ET that Mitch was her favorite person. Isn't it more revealing to have Jerri not mention Amber than if Jerri were to have said both Mitch and Amber, if you were Burnett? In my opinion, either Amber starts playing in a manner that Jerri doesn't like (defection seems to be a pet peeve) or they simply grew apart during the time between when Jerri left and Amber finally checks in at the ranch...which would indicate that she goes far. Enough rambling from the newbie, again, please be kind. I realize I probably haven't set the world on fire with my long "amazing" insight~ Kirin   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-31-01, 06:47 PM (EST) 32. "RE: couple questions nagging me" LAST EDITED ON 03-31-01 AT 06:50 PM (EST) >First of all please be kind, this is my first attempt >at analysis. And not a bad attempt at all. > If he is any kind of debater, Colby should >have been able to make a very valid case as >to why Jerri needed to stay at least one more >episode without looking like a liar and schemer. Here's the problem with that, which helped me think that Jerri was it last time: They needed TWO more vote-offs and a 5-1 advantage before it was TRULY safe to boot Jerri. That's 6 more days of Jerri, at least. And then there's the risk Jerri wins one or two immunities. In fact, they can vote off Nick next time and Amber STILL can defect. Yes, their decision was probably emotional, but looking at the numbers I just described, even Colby could see that it was almost a "now-or-never" situation. > She might be a >sorority chick (sorry for offending >anyone, LOL) Hee hee hee. I'm NOT sorry if anyone was offended! Just kidding. >If I remember correctly Amber stated at some point after the >IC that she needed to check with Okagor to see >if the voting plan still was in place. Does >that mean she was directly lied to, and if so, >by whom? I have the feeling that she didn't get the chance to talk with them, but if she did, she was probably WITH JERRI AT THE TIME (what would be new about THAT) and so had to be lied to. > I could see her being shaken but >easier to pacify if Jerri told her they were voting >Lis, but not if Colby/Tina/Keith told her. By pacify, >I mean one of them sucking up to her and >saying "Keith was adamant" and that there was no way >to avoid it, thus setting up Amber's resentment of Keith, >while keeping her voting with Okagor. They can still say "Well, we couldn't tell you because Jerri was standing right there next to you, etc. etc." But you're right, overall. Both Colby and Tina will have to work on her (and I'm sure Lis will take a shot at inviting her to be in the Kucha sorority), and it would be good if Keith also talks to Amber, just to reassure her that "I had problems with Jerri, but not with you, so don't go thinking we're gonna betray you." >Tina's conversation with Lis is also a puzzler. My impression >was that Tina didn't clue in Lis ahead of TC. > I don't think Lis is that good of an >actress, she allows too much of her emotions to show >on her face. (I loved the look she had >on her face when Jerri was sucking up pre-vote!) I don't think Tina told Lis and here's why: LIS TOLD TINA SHE WAS VOTING FOR JERRI! You say "So what?" Now if we can trust the editing, Tina and Lis talked BEFORE the "Tent Talk." So after the Tent Talk, perhaps Tina was the tiebreaker between Keith and Tina, perhaps Keith insisted, but either way, the Ogies decided to vote for Jerri, knowing that they had FOUR votes. But if Tina then told Lis "we're voting for Jerri", it sets up a risk: Nick, Rodger and Lis vote for COLBY, setting up a tiebreaker (3-3-2) situation. (Yes, Jerri has 6 votes to Colby's 5 but Kucha doesn't know that, they only know Colby's 5 and Jerri's 4). This would be HIGHLY UNLIKELY, but why should Tina take the risk and tell Lis. > Isn't it more revealing >to have Jerri not mention >Amber than if Jerri were >to have said both Mitch >and Amber, if you were >Burnett? Jerri also made the point to speak very badly about Tina. Perhaps Jerri blames Tina for the vote that waxed her (Jerri). Jerri was not fond at all of Tina for turning against the Jerricorps early. > In my opinion, either Amber starts playing in >a manner that Jerri doesn't like (defection seems to be >a pet peeve) or they simply grew apart during the >time between when Jerri left and Amber finally checks in >at the ranch...which would indicate that she goes far. I thought that an Ep 9 Jerri booting was the reason for the Jerri/Amber split (if Amber black widowed Jerri), but apparently it was not (although Amber not hugging Jerri goodbye surprised me). We'll find out what it's about in the future, I guess. My first thought is that Amber makes the Final Two, loses partly because Jerri votes for the other person, and lights into Jerri for it. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-31-01, 07:06 PM (EST) 33. "don't put too much stock in missed hug" (although >Amber not hugging Jerri goodbye >surprised me .....I don't think it was a big deal...remember, in the past only the people that sit on the end closest to JP were the one's who offered a hug or handshake to the recently departed (the one exception being Alicia and Colby getting up and giving her the tourch) Lamber was sitting towards the other end of the bench (I think second to last) so it would've been awkward for her to run over and give her a hug....especially when you throw in the fact that even saying goodbye is frowned upond by MB, let alone a hug or a handshake. Plus, Lamber was clearly in shock after the vote...she looked stunned for a second and then put her head in her lap and cried....so you can't discount the "suprise factor", remember, with Alicia, it was known for 3 days who was getting the boot, so people like Colby had plenty of time to think up somethjing to do at TC to show his like/respect for ALicia (and maybe sway her eventual final2 vote if the situation arrived) Essentially, I think the whole hug/handshake thing is very much discouraged by MB for a couple of reasons: 1. It would look too much like baby-kissing w/ the ruture jury member. 2. It would also tip off the jury member as to who voted for him/her which could effect the final vote...example: Maybe Scerri wasn't sure if it was Colby or Lamber who stabbed her in the back, when Lamber runs up and hugs her she could use that as evidence that Lamber stayed loyal and that could end up affecting her vianl vote.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-01-01, 00:16 AM (EST) 34. "RE: don't put too much stock in missed hug" I agree about the good-bye hugs and such. They have been told they have to leave immediately. And in the first season they even got angry at Rich because he tried giving shells to the jury members. He was told that was out of line and he couldn't influence them. MB wants the booted to leave as quickly as possible without any good-byes. And Amber was in shock.   Top

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