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GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 06:19 PM (EST) "Maybe Keith Joins Kucha?" I'm posting this to complement CJ's thread on the possibilty of Keith getting the boot. I recommend you read his very persuasive arguements first and where I have made some brief comments. What CJ said got me thinking about what if instead of Keith being betrayed by Tina and her mini alliance within Okagor, the shocking twist is the other way round. Keith betrays Tina instead and defects to Kucha. If that happens the playing field would be leveled, 4 vs 4 and the Ogies would be in trouble. Here's my take: 1) We all know that Keith was the odd man out in Ogakor after the loss of Kel and Maralyn. But lucky for him, Mitchell went for having one previous vote in their tie. From that point on Keith knew that he was the outsider and vulnerable. Given the right excuse, Jerri and Amber at the very LEAST would make him a goner. He'd also have to consider the possibilty that if they managed to engineeer an all Ogakor final five his position was shaky. Now Jerri would be a obvious target too but can he be really be sure that the others would lean that way. At best, he's the alternative vote. 2) Keith should be indebted to Tina for her handing him immunity so as to protect Ogakor after the merge. But there comes a point in time when it's every man for himself. When Tina calls in her favor - and she will - Keith is no longer in control, minimizing any influence he had, limited as it was. It leaves him in a very poor position. Then there's the fact he's won two ICs running making him an obvious threat. Double trouble. 3) Keith hates Jerri and, by association, Amber, albeit to a lesser extent. Tina is 'like a sister' and as for Colby, well, they seem to have bonded well enough. BUT it wouldn't be that paranoid to at least wonder what's going on when Colby is alone with Jerri (whisphering sweet nothings in his ear). 4) So....Keith ain't dumb. Self-preservation forces him to explore other avenues. Now I'm specualting here but I think he sees Rodger and Elisabeth as good people. AND they share their hatred for Jerri. Why not use that to his advantage? He has some influence here whereas there would have been none in Ogkaor. So they bring in Nick and suddenly the balance of power has shifted in their favour. 5) Let's assume that CJ's arguement is valid and that the Ogakor bloc decides to vote Keith out. Keith is none the wiser but so what? His new alliance goes for Jerri. We have a tie. Jerri has more previous votes and is voted out. Same would be true if they opted for Colby instead. Either way, Ogakor would be one man down and face being picked off one at a time. The tables have turned. I do appreciate that Jerri being voted off might not be a great surprise if you subscribe to the view that Ep8.5 was a means to soften her up in preparation for an imminent boot (I don't). But the shocking twist isn't that fact she gets booted but rather the manner it was executed. I should finish by pointing that I have no proof whatsoever. But I contend that even if my theory may not be valid and probable, it IS possible and viable.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Maybe Keith Joins Kucha? md23rewls 03-27-01 1  RE: Maybe Keith Joins Kucha? SurvivinDawg 03-27-01 2    RE: How early did Keith ally with T... Outfrontgirl 03-28-01 3        RE: Maybe Keith Joins Kucha? GG 03-28-01 4            RE: Maybe Keith Joins Kucha? SurvivinDawg 03-28-01 5            RE: Knowledge of tiebreaker rules Outfrontgirl 03-28-01 8                RE: Knowledge of tiebreaker rules SurvivinDawg 03-29-01 10  PARANOIA Play2Survive 03-28-01 6    RE: PARANOIA GG 03-28-01 7    RE: PARANOIA Riordan 03-28-01 9

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md23rewls 23 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 09:15 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Maybe Keith Joins Kucha?" I think that Keith really wants to join Kucha. He wanted to last episode, but was testing the waters to see how they were as people. After 6 days, he seems to like Liz and Rodger, but he has loyalties to Tina and Colby, espesially Tina because she let him have immunity the first challenge as a merged tribe. When he sees Colby and Jerri win the RC (assuming they are partners) and Jerri's insistance on Colby being her partner, he might start thinking that maybe Colby isn't as loyal as he thought. If Amber tells someone what Colby has said, although I don't think she will, Keith will inform Tina that he will be voting with Kucha and she can if she wants to go with him.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-27-01, 09:38 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Maybe Keith Joins Kucha?" LAST EDITED ON 03-27-01 AT 09:41 PM (EST) Edited to give apologies in advance. Upon rereading it, I realized that this might seem to be a bit too sarcastic. Apologies in advance. It's getting late. Have a good evening. I will say this: I like your arguments better, much better, than I like CJ's, although I still disagree, to wit: >1) We all know that Keith was the odd man out >in Ogakor after the loss of Kel and Maralyn. Was he? I beg to differ. Keep reading. > But lucky for him, Mitchell went >for having one previous vote in their tie. Luck had nothing to do with it. KEITH gave Mitchell that vote. I have discussed elsewhere in this forum (sorry, don't have the link at hand) that this vote by Keith for Mitchell proves (IMHO) that Keith, Tina and Colby were allied at the point of the Mad Dog Tribal Council. Keith gave Mitchell that vote as "insurance". When Mitch would not betray Jerri, T/C/K then executed the plan and ousted Mitch. > From that point on Keith knew that he was the outsider and >vulnerable. Having votes made him vulnerable, especially in the crucial 5-5 tie vote, but he won Immunity. He was not the outsider from the Mitchell TC (and IMHO the Mad Dog TC). > Given the right excuse, Jerri and Amber at the >very LEAST would make him a goner. I know I keep beating this like a dead horse, but would people *please* consider (after the last episode) that Amber might not be Jerri's syncophant anymore??? Furthermore to this point, at their reward dinner, Amber talked about TINA... didn't hear a word about Keith, although I might have missed it. And Jerri was more concerned about Tina in the "Hyena Night Chat" with Colby. > He'd also have to consider the possibilty that if they managed to engineeer an all Ogakor final five his position was shaky. I am not clear on how a Final Three and opportunity to win Final IC is "shaky." Actually I think Keith makes Final Four, but my point is that as things stand now, Keith fully expects himself, Tina and Colby to be the Final Three. And people can make (and have made) darn good arguments for this happening. > Now Jerri would be a obvious target too Ah, I am delighted that we agree on something. > but can he be really be sure that the others would lean that >way. No, but it's possible. Also, he could fall into the fire like Mike did. Unlikely as all Hades, but possible. >At best, he's the alternative vote. Alternative to what? Jerri or a Kucha being voted off? Yeah, but then I guess Colby, Amber, and Tina are in that same boat. >2) Keith should be indebted to Tina for her handing him >immunity so as to protect Ogakor after the merge. But >there comes a point in time when it's every man >for himself. When Tina calls in her favor - and >she will - Keith is no longer in control, minimizing >any influence he had, limited as it was. Keith has long since been well aware of this, but I'll suggest that this is ALL THE MORE REASON to remain in the C/K/T alliance and not play around by allying with Kucha. Remember, if he sticks with Kucha he'll be in fourth place AND NO BETTER. The Kuchas remember the skin dripping off Mike's fingers. >Then there's the fact >he's won two ICs running making him an obvious threat. >Double trouble. He's as much a "threat" as anyone, anyway. Can he keep the streak up? I think I covered that in my PTTE theory, by the way. >3) Keith hates Jerri Again, we agree fully! > and, by >association, Amber, albeit to a >lesser extent. Oops, we diverge again. Just exactly where did we gather anything resembling data or evidence that Keith dislikes Amber? Just because Amber seems to be Jerri's puppy? Think of someone you don't like. Do you hate that person's puppy? > Tina is 'like a sister' and as for Colby, well, they seem to >have bonded well enough. BUT it wouldn't be that paranoid >to at least wonder what's going on when Colby is >alone with Jerri (whisphering sweet nothings in his ear). We have spoiler data that Colby was constipated for 14 days. Why do I doubt that he's thinking of Jerri's sweet somethings??? Maybe he is, but he's made it clear he's not falling for it ("I ain't no Hershey bar!"). Seriously, I don't think Keith would be nearly as paranoid as Jerri ought to be. >4) So....Keith ain't dumb. Self-preservation >forces him to explore other avenues. And I can use this exact same argument to say that he'll stay with C/K/T. >He has some influence here >whereas there would have been >none in Ogkaor. I suspect he has more with Ogakor. I don't see Kucha carrying him beyond the 4th position. Skin dripping of Mike's fingers, remember? >So they >bring in Nick and suddenly >the balance of power has >shifted in their favour. No doubt about that. >5) Let's assume that CJ's arguement >is valid and that the >Ogakor bloc decides to vote >Keith out. I refuse to even consider this, much less assume it, so I'll stop here. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-28-01, 02:55 AM (EST) 3. "RE: How early did Keith ally with Tina/Colby" Sorry, S. Dawg, but I'm not persuaded that Keith's first vote for Mitchell was part of an alliance. I think he was an outsider voting off the weak for the sake of a stronger tribe. Plus, quotes from Mitchell (during show and in media interviews) indicate strong friction between Keith and Mitchell. They did not like each other at all, and Mitch would probably have voted against Keith if it weren't that the Ogie 5 was voting in unison for Mad Dog. (In retrospect, not very smart. They could have hit their target and laid a foundation to get Keith booted.) In my opinion, opportunistic Tina and Colby realized, when faced with losing a strong member and a 4th IC, that Keith's previous vote against Mitchell would ensure them a win when they voted against their own J/A/C/T/M alliance to save Keith. To Colby, Keith was an asset to be preserved for pre-merge strength, not yet an ally. That's not to say an alliance didn't evolve due to the events of Ep. 4, but I do not believe that Keith had been pulled in by Ep. 3. If you have the tape, watch Keith being interviewed before the hike to Ep. 4 TC, where he announces that he personally wants to speak to the tribe and see if he can sway any of Jerri's followers. He sounds like a condemned man who's going to make a last appeal just in case, and I don't think he's being cagey. He simply has no alliance at that point in time and the plan he announces is completely straightforward, not devious. Keith strikes me as the only Ogie with no gift for devious tactics. If he makes a pitch to Kucha, that will also be straightforward, and we can look to another player to add any Machiavellian twist that emerges. Now Tina, she's the soul of deviosity... I do, however, respect your arguments, so I hope no hard feelings that I disagree.   Top

GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-28-01, 05:42 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Maybe Keith Joins Kucha?" SD, Your point(s) are well made. At the very least though, I'm going to try and defend my position. And as I said, I'm not suggesting for a moment my scenario will or is likely to happen. Just that it can. 1) Keith gave Mitchell that vote. OK, I'll concede that possibility but it is just as likely that a Tina/Keith/Colby alliance never existed. Don't forget, Mitchell said in a recent media appearance that at the time of a tie vote, they had to wait 90 minutes to confirm what the tie-breaker is. Now, we know that Tina/Keith/Colby knew that Keith would get the vote from the other 3 (Colby originaly was going to vote Keith before switching). So unless they knew to a certainty how a tie-breaker is applied, Keith could just as easily been the one to go if some other format was used. Either way, it still doesn't alter the fact Keith got as many votes as Mitchell did. And it is only natural for Keith not to feel secure about that whatever the alliance. 2) "...consider that Amber might not be Jerri's sycophant anymore". Again, entirely possible but surely it's not coincidence that Amber has voted exactly as Jerri has to date. "At the reward dinnner, Amber talked about Tina and not Keith". Indeed, do you not find it strange that little if any air time has been given to Keith and Amber together. Can you recall them ever having a one-on-one conversation? I think there's something to this though I'm not sure what. 3) I said that Keith's position in a final Ogakor 5 could be shaky, not beyond that. Applying your theory, then yes, his pact with Tina and Colby would see him into the final three. But in my theory it would not. Besides, even if he trusts Tina totally, why should he feel that way about Colby. Colby has already played both sides as we've seen and I'm guessing that between Tina/Keith and Amber/Jerri Colby's odds are better with the latter two. And Amber is smitten with Colby. Two women fighting over you - talk about being in control! 4) Keith MAY be in fourth place and no better with Kucha but by that time alliances become secondary to the importance of winning IC and protecting yourself. I'm betting that the IC at this point is anything but physical so any perceived adavantage he has by sticking with Ogakor is negligible. I'm basing this on the assumption that a Tina/Keith/Colby alliance doesn't exist. Outfrontgirl provides a good explanation as to why not, and I concur. 5) There isn't any evidence that Keith dislikes Amber, but equally there is none that he likes her as well. Which is why the point I made in 2) above is interesting. Maybe he's just indifferent towards her. 6) Let's assume that Keith has seen Jerri and COlby together at some point. They're not going to be talking about his bowel movements. It would only be natural for Keith to wonder. Why would Colby choose to be in Jerri's company alone when he has outwardly shown annoyance (re: building the stretcher and dunking her with water in those two reward challenges). Alright, I'm making a leap here but there still leaves room for doubt in Keith's mind, however small. 7) If Keith joins Kucha, it doesn't matter how Ogakor then vote. They're dead ducks. And by defecting Keith's position is strong -he would make the final four. Could be further if at some point Nick becomes an issue - this would depend on Rodger and Elisabeth's loyalty but Keith may well be able to test that by winning immunity. Lot of 'ifs' I know. Ultimately all I'm saying is that it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that Keith defects. Fair enough?   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-28-01, 10:14 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Maybe Keith Joins Kucha?" >Ultimately all I'm saying is that >it isn't beyond the realms >of possibility that Keith defects. >Fair enough? Very fair, and it's not beyond the realm of possibility. We merely draw opposite conclusions based on the same data. There is one of Murphy's Laws that states "Anything can be proven with statistics. Corollary: The same set of data may be used to prove opposing theories." That's what we're basically doing here. Makes for good horse racing. >2) "...consider that Amber might not be Jerri's sycophant anymore". Again, entirely possible but surely it's >not coincidence that Amber has voted exactly as Jerri has >to date. "At the reward dinnner, Amber talked about Tina >and not Keith". Indeed, do you not find it strange >that little if any air time has been given to >Keith and Amber together. Can you recall them ever having >a one-on-one conversation? I think there's something to this though I'm not sure what. >5) There isn't any evidence that Keith dislikes Amber, but equally there is none that he >likes her as well. Which is why the point I >made in 2) above is >interesting. Maybe he's just indifferent >towards her. Well, my whole point is that while Amber HAS been Jerri's puppy up to this point, she may not continue to be in the future. Reasons for not seeing much of Keith/Amber: mostly MB editing concentrating on Jerri, also we haven't seen much of Amber without Jerri anyway. Maybe Amber and Keith are indifferent to each other, but I'm just saying that it's not nearly as clear as Keith and Jerri's "relationship." >4) Keith MAY be in fourth >place and no better with >Kucha but by that time >alliances become secondary to the >importance of winning IC and >protecting yourself. I disagree here. It would be true for an Ogakor final 4 or 5, but Kucha loyalty is MUCH stronger. >6) Let's assume that Keith has >seen Jerri and COlby together >at some point. They're not >going to be talking about >his bowel movements. One never knows Of course, would Jerri feel the same way about Colby talking to Keith? >Why would Colby choose to be in Jerri's >company alone when he has outwardly shown annoyance (re: building the stretcher and dunking her >with water in those two reward challenges). Who said that it is Colby choosing to be in Jerri's company and not the other way around? Jerri followed Colby on the pig hunt, Jerri sought out Colby (who was trying to find some alone time) for the "hyena night chat", not the other way around. >7) If Keith joins Kucha, it >doesn't matter how Ogakor then >vote. They're dead ducks. > Exactly, and Keith is an Ogie. Ergo, Keith would be a dead duck, also. To sum up, we disagree on Keith's need to defect and the wisdom of him doing so. No big deal and nothing personal, just making for more fun posting. Time will tell. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-28-01, 03:22 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Knowledge of tiebreaker rules" Can anyone reconcile Mitchell's statement that they had to wait to find out the tiebreaker rule with these other points? 1) Jeff in Kucha was worried from Week 1 because he had a vote and knew about tiebreaker; 2) Colby said they planned from Week 1 to get Jeff from the time they learned of that vote; 3) Kucha discussed the tie-breaker rule prior to merge even though they hadn't heard about what went on in Ogakor TC; 4) It's a contest and there's probably a legal requirement that the contestants be briefed on all the rules beforehand; 5) Jeff P. should know a rule like that, as deadlocked tied votes are completely foreseeable, even though one didn't occur in S1; 6) I've watched the tape of Keith and Mitchell's faces as Jeff announce the second tie, and Mitchell immediately looked like "I'm gone," whereas Keith looked completely confident, not sweating awaiting a rule. Two speculations my suspicious brain comes up with: 1) Jeff and Mark B. were just trying to screw with them by prolonging their wait in an atmosphere where betrayal had just occurred, instead of sending Mitchell packing immediately 2) MB was trying to figure out if he could change the rules without getting busted for that (unlikely). Either that or the contestants were more informed or sure of the rules than the producers and host. Any thoughts? I'm just interested whether we have an example of a mind game being played by MB. Since the audience didn't see the long wait, we only know because Mitchell said so. Oh right, another unlikely possibility is that Mitchell made it up or his tired brain had lost the ability to measure time passing.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-29-01, 07:18 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Knowledge of tiebreaker rules" Concerning the tiebreaker rules, my understanding from reading Mitchell's interview is that they called back to the States to *confirm* the rule. In other words, they are saying "we know the rule but we better make darn sure as this has never happened before." They also probably took time to get their ducks in a row, to check how many votes Mitch actually did have in the past (for example: Jeff thought he had one but he really had two) and brief the camera crew on what was going to happen next. Lastly, they may have discussed the possibility of what happens if contestants are tied in previous votes, if there would be a playoff or if they would "vote all night" as MB has allegedly said. Not so much MB trying to change rules as getting their ducks in a row. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged "If I were perfect, I'd run for God." -- Corporal Maxwell Q. Klinger, 4077th MASH   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-28-01, 11:29 AM (EST) 6. "PARANOIA" Remember that from E8 previews? Well after reading these posts, CJ's and others this week, one thing is clear. Many of us see that the potential exists for an Ogie to get voted off prior to Liz, Nick and Rodger getting fully Kuchafied. All the reasons prsented can be traced back to PARANOIA. Let's look at some of them: 1. CJIm has presented a theory that Jerri and her kids might be paranoid that Keith would join the Kuchas and choose to axe him now. Keith would walk, stunned and confused. 2. GG then argued that Keith could in fact join Kucha, paranoid that he will be targeted soon and that Colby can't be trusted. Basically the theory is that CJim's argument has some basis, but that Keith beats the others to the punch. He would take his chances being the only Ogie in Final 4. Jerri would be gone. 3. I presented a theory that Tina, along with Keith, have every reason to be paranoid, knowing as most of us do, that given the option Colby would be wiser to dump them and go into final 3 with Jerri and Amber. To save themselves, take control of the game, and live a little more peacefully, they vote with Kucha to be rid of Jerri. They take their chances that Amber will understand and will not defect to Kuchas. 4. Alternative paranoia theories have even included Amber joining the Kuchas now to wax Jerri, hoping in doing so she will divorce herself from a bad assoiciation problem - sort of like P&G being tied to Satanism. Looking at all this I have to wonder if any of this could actually happen. Paranoia is fear - when people act out of fear they can make some spontaneous and foolish choices. Many people believe it would be a bad idea for any Ogie to vote off their own - however, MB has painted a picture - which I believe is a truthful one - that the Ogies are all in a state of mild terror and total distrust. I do not believe for a second - as most people espouse - that Keith and Tina trust Colby's word (Jerri and Amber maybe, but not K and T). Even Colby is walking on eggshells, knowing if any of the others get together and compare notes he's in a serious pickle. My point in all this is that I can see shades of possibility in all of these theories, because of the existence of mass PARANOIA. However, my vote this week, when I finally post it, will not be based on any of this but will stem from a hunch that MB and CBS know the basic laws of marketing.   Top

GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-28-01, 12:57 PM (EST) 7. "RE: PARANOIA" S.Dawg, Absolutley - if everybody agreed, this would be a heck of a dull forum. I actually have no leaning towards my scenario being likely (or close to it). Just sort of liked the way it sounds. And I am grateful that you took the time to explain your disagreements, rather than flame my theory into oblivion without so much as a why not. It's fun to speculate. As someone once said, "Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth". P2S, Paranoia is the right word. For the tribe members, it's not so much a matter of who's honest but who to distrust the least. However, people make foolish choices all the time. Just ask Kucha when they voted for Colby. Any of the scenarios mentioned could happen if only because they make sense to those people making the decisions at that point in time. i.e. their own logic and not logic itself. Mix in other people's logic and you could end up with something else entirely. They realize later what dunces they were, but hey, hindsight has always been a wonderful thing. P.S. You say your vote is going to be based on applying marketing principles. In which case, I'd be very interested to hear your interpretation sometime of how Nick has been 'sold' to the audience thus far by MB. At the opposite end of the spectrum to Jerri?   Top

Riordan 634 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-28-01, 07:28 PM (EST) 9. "RE: PARANOIA" >My point in all this is >that I can see shades >of possibility in all of >these theories, because of the >existence of mass PARANOIA. And I see the closer one gets to winning that million the harder it will be to accept losing it.   Top

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