A little Nash analysis...

Erika's best chance to win is to throw the HOH comp, hope Janelle ins't wise to it, and count on Boogie to take her to the finals. She can't win against Janelle, nor can she win without Janelle and Howie's votes.

Would Boogie take her? Probably. He'd have Will, Dani and James in his corner. Erika would have CG, Janelle, and Howie. Marcellas would be the swing vote, who would probably vote for Erika.

Under this scenario, Erika beats Boogie 4-3.

If Boogie took Janelle, he knows he'd lose in a landslide. Odds are that if Boogie wins HOH, he comes in second to either Erika or Janelle.

Therefore, Boogie should consider throwing the HOH to Erika. If Erika scumbags Janelle, Boogie will pick up votes from Janelle and Howie, and will likely win 5-2 (with Marcy and CG as the only votes for Erika).

However, Boogie has to consider the high possibilty that Erika would keep her F2 promise to Janelle.

What should Boogie do? He should try to win HOH, but also let Janelle know that Erika threw it. Tell her beforehand that Erika is planning on throwing it. If Janelle believes him, Boogie would win by a 5-2 margin, but wouldn't have to take his chances with Erika's moral dilemma.

What should Erika do? Throw the HOH to Boogie, then deny, deny, deny that she threw it. If she can fool Janelle, Erika will win.

What should Janelle do?

Janelle knows that Boogie won't bring her to the F2. Erika has promised to, but she still might scumbag her. Or worse, throw the HOH comp. Janelle should figure this out even before Boogie rats Erika out.

Therefore, Janelle's strategy is two-fold: first, she has to try to convince Erika that Boogie (with Will's help) will beat her in the F2. Also, convince Erika that she can beat Janelle in the F2. In reality, the situation is reversed: Janelle is unbeatable, but Boogie is a toss up.

The second part of Janelle's strategy is to let Erika know that she's worried that Erika will throw the HOH. And, more importantly, that Janelle won't vote for her if she suspects that Erika threw it. Nor will Howie.

At the end of the day, as Will would say, I don't really think any of the HGs have the strategic foresight to make this happen. Instead, I expect Erika to throw the HOH, then beat Boogie in the F2.