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GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-25-01, 03:42 PM (EST) "Jerri's Staying Put" LAST EDITED ON 03-25-01 AT 03:46 PM (EST) Although the consensus as to why Jerri will go soon is valid (re: a softer portrayl in Ep.8.5), I'm really beginning to wonder if in fact the opposite isn't true. By softening her up, MB may simply be preparing for us for the fact that she'll be around for some time yet. Paint her in a less unflattering light, we thaw a bit, and make the remaining weeks of her presence tolerable (yeah it's a stretch). I mean why would you suddenly want to make the villian of the piece more presentable when you've spent the first 8 weeks deliberately developing her as the "evil one" you want us to know she is. Come on, MB may have a conscience, but I doub't he'd go so far as to try and show Jerri's brighter side simply because he wants us to feel a tinge of guilt if she is voted off next episode or the one after. Far better instead to sucker us into thinking she's not quite that bad and then deliver the real punch. In some perverse way, it might even be fun to see Jerri crank up the nasty style and wreak havoc. It certainly isn't beyond her. Next, wouldn't it make sense for someone to gang up on Colby? He's a threat in any future physical IC and the longer he's around the greater the danger he poses to everyone else. Tina and Keith might feel they could give him a run for his money but why take that risk at all. Colby strikes me as being an almost 'toned down' version of Jerri - openly personable but no less manipulative and kniving. Look at the way he's played Tina/Keith and Amber/Jerri. Finally and by no means least, does anyone feel that Tina (maybe), Keith, Rodger and Elisabeth actually come across as decent enough that they would actually have some moral conflict in voting one of each other off, at least until they absolutely have to? It's daft of course - how can you win if you don't step on some toes - but I feel that their own characters are such that they might really want the good guys to make it. Forming an alliance and picking of the rest, in theory, is possible and the last couple of episodes even alludes to it being a likelihood. Thoughts? Phew....new guy's done now. You have my permission to douse me in flames.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Jerri's Staying Put IceCat 03-25-01 1    RE: Jerri's Staying Put PepeLePew13 03-25-01 2        Math Skills IceCat 03-25-01 3            RE: Math Skills Krautboy 03-25-01 4                RE: Math Skills janisella 03-25-01 5                    RE: Math Skills Loree 03-25-01 7                    RE: Math Skills Minstrel 03-27-01 31                Shocking Twist IceCat 03-25-01 6                RE: Math Skills idiotcowboy 03-26-01 8    RE: Jerri's Staying Put GG 03-26-01 9        RE: Jerri's Staying Put Play2Survive 03-26-01 18  RE: Jerri's Staying Put SurvivinDawg 03-26-01 10    RE: Jerri's Staying Put Superman 03-26-01 11        RE: Jerri's Staying Put IceCat 03-26-01 12            Agree dangerkitty 03-26-01 19                RE: Agree IceCat 03-26-01 25                    RE: Agree ItzLisa 03-27-01 38                RE: Agree shakes the clown 03-26-01 30                    RE: Agree dangerboy 03-27-01 42                        RE: Agree dangerkitty 03-27-01 43            RE: Jerri's Staying Put SurvivinDawg 03-26-01 22        RE: Jerri's Staying Put rameses 03-26-01 13        Jerri would be "shocking twist" Krautboy 03-26-01 16    RE: Jerri's Staying Put IceCat 03-26-01 15        Difficult Decision? Krautboy 03-26-01 17        RE: Jerri's Staying Put Play2Survive 03-26-01 20            RE: Jerri's Staying Put Annadad 03-26-01 29        RE: Jerri's Staying Put SurvivinDawg 03-26-01 23            RE: Jerri's Staying Put Krautboy 03-26-01 26                RE: Jerri's Staying Put GG 03-27-01 32            RE: Jerri's Staying Put idiotcowboy 03-26-01 27                RE: Jerri's Staying Put Loree 03-26-01 28                RE: Jerri's Staying Put Minstrel 03-27-01 33                    RE: Jerri's Staying Put idiotcowboy 03-28-01 45                RE: Jerri's Staying Put SurvivinDawg 03-27-01 35                    RE: Jerri's Staying Put idiotcowboy 03-28-01 46            RE: Jerri's Staying Put cowboyroo 03-27-01 44  RE: Jerri's Staying Put Annadad 03-26-01 14    RE: Jerri's Staying Put GG 03-26-01 21        RE: Jerri's Staying Put Play2Survive 03-26-01 24            RE: Jerri's Staying Put GG 03-27-01 34                RE: Jerri's Staying Put Play2Survive 03-27-01 37                    RE: Jerri's Staying Put GG 03-27-01 39                        RE: Jerri's Staying Put Play2Survive 03-27-01 40            RE: Jerri's Staying Put SurvivinDawg 03-27-01 36                RE: Jerri's Staying Put Outfrontgirl 03-27-01 41

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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-25-01, 06:24 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" Hello GG, Welcome to SB.com and thanks for your post. I happen to agree with you so I won't flame you for making your first post by starting a new thread. Just be sure to duck if you see a clown approaching with a flame thrower. You'll understand what that means later unless you've lurked before you posted. Jerri doesn't go anywhere until EP11 and it is due to pure mathematics. There is a synopsis of my reasoning is in this post: http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/996.shtml#1 Oh hell... I might as well copy it here as it is only a synopsis: How Amber might vote at TC during the episode AFTER the episode that Jerri is gone is something that makes Jerri safe for EP9 and EP10... EP9 3 Kuchas 5 Okas If Jerri goes its 3 Kuchas 4 Okas Subsequent Amber switch would make 4 Kucha/Amber to 3 Ogakor Colby/Keith/Tina definitely won't allow a Kucha resurgence. Therefore Jerri MUST stay in EP9 EP10 2 Kuchas 5 Okas If Jerri goes its 2 Kuchas 4 Okas Subsequent Amber switch would make 3 Kucha/Amber to 3 Ogakor Colby/Keith/Tina are vulnerable in a tie break scenario, due to prior votes for Colby and Keith. Therefore Jerri MUST stay in EP10 EP11 1 Kucha 5 Okas If Jerri goes its 1 Kucha 4 Okas Subsequent Amber switch would make 2 Kucha/Amber 3 Ogakor Colby/Keith/Tina finally have the mathematical advantage. Therefore Jerri CAN go in EP11 It's a Kucha gone for EP9 and EP10... Jerri goes in EP11.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-25-01, 08:41 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" Welcome to the board, GG... at least it's not a birdbrained flame-worthy post like several other newbies have put out there recently... Icecat...your analysis is very sound and I can't argue with that. The thing is, WE are good at math and WE know how to add up the "best-for" scenarios for Ogakor... but do THEY know how to count? Amber couldn't count to 3 if you spotted her one and two, plus Jerri's hormones are too preoccupied with Colby to take note and Keith's foaming at the mouth ... so anything can happen in the next two episodes when it comes to emotions. It's very easy for emotions to override rational thinking and very possible for something to shift in the way of booting Jerri out in Ep9 or 10. Having said that... I still need to see more concrete evidence that she's going before I will ever bet on her being gone, and I still think it's more likely a Kuchie goes this week.   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-25-01, 09:49 PM (EST) 3. "Math Skills" I hear yah... I know that my math skills would probably take a nose dive after a diet of fish and rice for a few weeks... All I can say is that logic must rule in the end... IceCat   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-25-01, 10:07 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Math Skills" Still having trouble with the "shocking twist" and need to resolve what that is before I can agree that an Ogakor goes this week. None of the Kucha would be a surprise...so I'm still confused.   Top

janisella 698 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-25-01, 10:30 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Math Skills" Maybe the "shocking twist" is that America is still watching even though it's predictable. Welcome GG. I agree with you that Jerri stays awhile longer, maybe even to the final 4. With regard to math skills, we didn't have to live with those people 24 hours a day (or get to see what things were really like). At some point it may be worth risking a sure thing to get rid of someone. J.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-25-01, 10:54 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Math Skills" I think if Jerri is still singing to everyone at night that it might be worth booting her just to get some peace. Could you listen to that very long?   Top

Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 03-27-01, 02:18 AM (EST) 31. "RE: Math Skills" I love the math skills, but the game is a changing. Maybe slowly, but a changing. I think the shocking twist might have to do with challenges. One idea is that Jerri gets to pick Colby while the others are drawn out of a hat. This ends up as J/C, K/E, N/A, T/R. Another is that Tina wins immunity, but it isn't that outrageous. Only it would help protect her if Keith and Tina were to bolt to Kucha and aim for Jerri. This ties a bit into the below statements. Yet another is that while J/C are off on their "honeymoon" Amber learns other Ogakors and Kuchas have been talking to change the dynamics and break up Ogakor. This involves Keith talking with Rodger, and Tina talking with Elisabeth. (Nick is asleep in the kitchen). We've seen K/R fishing and there could be a bond happening. We know virtually everyone hates Jerri, but Elisabeth comes back to Tina to try it again. This time, she could lie about Colby being on K/T's side. But as I said in Grumpy_Angel's thread, it's still going to take time. One day probably isn't enough. Jerri is saved in E9, and Nick goes because of breathing room the Ogakors likely still want for fear Amber could bolt to the Kuchas if Jerri were axed next. And having four people on one side with zero votes will certainly suck for K/C/T. Thoughts?   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-25-01, 10:45 PM (EST) 6. "Shocking Twist" LAST EDITED ON 03-25-01 AT 10:46 PM (EST) I think the 'shocking twist' will be that Rodger wins immunity in EP9. I have no proof of this other than his big party coming up and my assertion that the immunity challenge is going to be log rolling and that Rodger will win because he used to own a lumber company. How's that for a long shot? That's my story and I'm stickin' to it! IceCat   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 03-26-01, 00:00 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Math Skills" LAST EDITED ON 03-26-01 AT 00:11 AM (EST) Krautboy - 1st off let me thank you for your nice welcome the other day (in the GUT thread)... 2nd let me see is if I can help identify some "shocking twists" that don't involve an Ogre removal. A) What if someone like say Colby or Keith severly sprains ("twists") their knee, ankle, or some other rather sensative part of their anatomy and although not severe enough to remove them from the game, bad enough that they would no longer be considered much of a future IC threat? B) What if these storms that are hinted at in the preview contain a tornado (ie "Twist"er) that comes a little too close for comfort to the happy baramundi campers (in another thread someone seems convinced of this) C) What if we're shown an unexpected inner-Oger alliance someone has managed to create accross previously unknown(unshown) lines (i.e. Colby/Amber after they win RC and go resorting, or Tina/Jerri discussing strategy to remove Keith, or even confirmation of the much speculated Colby/Tina alliance). Knowing how MB loves to use plays on words I'm leaning towards "A" or "B", but if any of these were true it could result in a major "twist" in the ultimate outcome... while not effecting the immediate TC evictee decision. Plus as long as Jerri is not evicted in the next 2 weeks I can continue to tell icecat I totally agree with him in every thread on the board! Although that Rodger thing makes me a little nervous... are sure about that ice? Edited because I thought I pressed preview not post... idiotboy living up to his name.   Top

GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-26-01, 05:15 AM (EST) 9. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" Iceman, Thanks for the 'heads up'. Or should that be 'heads down'?! If a clown does come calling I'll do a Nick. Unless you know of any good flame retardent suit dealers!!. And as for starting the new thread, yeah, lesson learned. I guess what you say makes sense. I do wonder though whether the tribe memebers always think that logically. Maybe we're giving them too much credit? In a way, it doesn't really matter if a Kucha wins IC in Ep.9 because if the Ogakor alliance is hell-bent on picking off the Kucha's, the rest are sitting ducks. Period. So any one of Nick, Rodger or Elisabeth will be next to go. Elisabeth seems a good bet - she's way too sweet and likeable. And good guys/gals don't win do they? Now Jerri might actually take her chances in an all Ogakor final 5, and here's my theory as to why. A bit convoluted but bear with me here. If Amber remains Jerri's Pavlov dog (like the comparison?) and Tina/Keith stay together, Colby is the swing vote. No brainer there. But Jerri probably suspects Colby playing both sides anyway and will plead her case to Colby to vote off either Tina/Keith. Colby has to see that's the best way to go since removing Jerri or Amber would see the reamining one join up with Tina/Keith leaving Colby vunerable (3 against 1). If Jerri remains and Amber is sacrificed, I can't see her sticking with Colby knowing the previous votes both have accumulated. After all, the T/K voting bloc would triumph in any tie. If Amber stays she might join with Colby but the same applies - they still can't get rid of T/K in a tie. Previous votes count double and it's adios Colby. Don't forget, your mathematical reasoning for Ep.10 is still sound regardless if Colby goes with T/K. In truth, they don't need him or Jerri to the hold the aces. It might not matter though - Tina/Keith might want Jerri in a final three knowing that all it would take is for either of them to win the last IC. Risky, but the odds are still 2 to 3 in their favour (and still better than having Colby/Amber to contend with). And even if Jerri did triumph, the one left is as good as the winner. So what we have is: 1) C/J/A voting off Keith 2) C/J/A vote off Tina. 2) Jerri and Amber take out Colby 3) Jerri/Amber final two. Note that even if a spanner is thrown in the works by the intended bootie winning IC, Jerri is still safe at least until the final four. * For 1), if Keith gets immunity then Tina goes or vice-versa. * For 2) if Tina wins IC and sides with Colby, then yes, Jerri would be booted off. (J/A vote Colby, T/C have to vote Jerri as Amber has no priors = tie = Jerri out by having more previous votes). But at least she still made the last four. * If in 3) Colby wins the final IC, he'll get rid of Amber and then win the million against Jerri by a landslide. The key to everything is Amber. I'm prepared to say that she'll stick with Jerri as long as possible because defecting puts her in a less favourable position whatever the possibilities. Besides, I suspect the others will view her association with Jerri as a black mark, however nice she's been. Ultimately, if you want the $1m, then wouldn't you do all in your power to try and get Jerri into the final two? I would. Unless the Jury concludes that they hate the way you protected her all the way to the final and therefore assumed you were a dead cert. Now wouldn't that be the most hated turnout ever in the history of TV? The above could be all hogwash of course, in which case I refer to my assertion in the first post that the GOOD EGG BRIGADE of Elisabeth, ROdger, Tina and Keith join forces. P.S. Posting this at an unearthly hour because I've just got home from work (shift hours!!).   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-26-01, 12:06 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" Welcome GG, I echo the sentiment that your post is insightful and very welcome. I also am going to respectfully disagree with the idea of Jerri making Final 4. Once again, this has nothing to do with personal preference and everything to do with the evidence that is out there. I am looking at the Jerri/Alicia connection, the "kinder, gentler" Jerri portrayed by MB, the safety-net of an Oga advantage, and the near unanimous lack of patience for her as evidence that she cannot last long. I have gone back and forth about whether she will go in E9 or E10. I have argued that Tina/Keith can gain control of the game by booting Jerri in E9, but only on the condition that they can keep Amber from joining forces with the remaining Kucha. Due to the fact that Amber could be a liability, I have been leaning toward a Kucha in E9 and Jerri in E10, however, I really believe MB has preparing us for her. We've had 2 full weeks to wonder - from the E8 foreshadowing and Jerri's 4 votes to the E8.5 softening. I just don't believe MB is messing with us on this one.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-26-01, 06:39 AM (EST) 10. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" No flames, your post is insightful. I respectfully disagree with you about Jerri and believe that Jerri will be the next to go unless she wins immunity. MB *would* make her look better in order for her appearances on "The Early Show" and "Letterman" and all the other shows be watched more. Notice how Alicia in her Final Chat (on the CBS website) and in interviews keeps telling us that Jerri is a much better person in real life.... so that when we see Jerri in these "real life" interviews, we don't equate her with that creature we are viewing on the show. I *do* agree with you about Colby. I think Colby is going to be gone much more quickly than anyone realizes, possibly as soon as Ogakor reaches a 4-2 advantage. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Superman 3157 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-26-01, 07:11 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" I've been re-thinking this lately and I'm almost convinced that Jerri's going too. Here's why: I don't think that MB is making Jerri look better because of the interviews, I think he's making her look better to convince us that she's NOT going soon. It's a reverse of his own strategy. Make someone look like a badguy, they never get voted off, but redeem them; show them apologizing, getting along with others, countless interviews with castaways saying, "Jerri's not a bad person", and THEN just when the public is saying, "Hey, maybe she's not so bad", THEN give her the ax. Add to that, Jerri and Alicia's shopping trip. Associate this with the Deb's friends spoiler. It just fits. Plus, Jerri is NOT seen as the obvious choice this week because of the Ogakor majority. MB pushed that issue with the recap show. She is thought by many to go farther. So, yes, it would be a "shocking twist" to see Jerri go at this point. I know I may be naive to think that Kucha doesn't go down one by one and if an Og doesn't go this week, I'll abandon the crack alltogether.   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-26-01, 07:33 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" Am I the only one who thought the Jerri character came across as even more diabolic as a result of the additional material provided during EP8.5? See this post for my take on the so-called 're-humanization' of the Jerri character? http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1053.shtml#6 Somebody else out there must have also seen the whole thing as even just a little sarcastic. Comments? IceCat   Top

dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 03-26-01, 01:13 PM (EST) 19. "Agree" Icecat, Yes, I felt the same as you. The "Criminal" song to me was gloating, not remorse. The "say something nice" scene around the campfire was initiated by Tina, and I was more taken with Keith's comments to Jerri than anything she said. Her comments about Keith while voting for him, "this is harder than it would have been a few days ago", well, she typically "kisses up" in the voting booth (maddog, alicia). I think it was predictable that MB would use the clips show to try and "soften" jerri, and if that's the best he can do, well there must not have been much to work with. But maybe us "catty" types just think alike, eh? dangerkitty   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-26-01, 07:42 PM (EST) 25. "RE: Agree" Thanks Kitty, I thought I was going nuts there for a bit. 'Catty'? Us? IceCat   Top

ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-27-01, 03:47 PM (EST) 38. "RE: Agree" LAST EDITED ON 03-27-01 AT 03:49 PM (EST) I agree with both of you, too - 8.5 didn't make her seem any nicer, in my eyes. Besides, what good were her "apologies" to Keith when, after the fact, she continually has stabbed him in the back, tried to vote him off, and tried to make him look bad in front of the Kucha women in the merger episode when he had their matches? She barely concealed the hate, her face was all twisted up when she practically spit out "I'm SURE he doesn't realize he has them..." - bad actress? You bet! *edutted fur mee beeing a badd spellur...* ************************************** What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about???   Top

shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-26-01, 09:02 PM (EST) 30. "RE: Agree" > >Yes, I felt the same as >you. The "Criminal" song >to me was gloating, not >remorse. ....I'm with you guys. I thought that song made her look more like an asshole than she already is....she was not only bragging about "playing" Kel, she was SINGING about it (and singing poorly I might add) On the bright side of things, I was finally right about something with this god damned show...that being that E#8.5 would have ZERO spoiler value and we WOULD see Ogakor sing-a-long footage in addition to some scenes that show us the lighter side of survivor (like the Kuchacuzi). We will all be better off to just forget that 8.5 even happened, and more importantly, that we even wasted the time to watch it.   Top

dangerboy 128 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 10:39 PM (EST) 42. "RE: Agree" Guys I agree. I felt Jerri's song was gloating not contrition. She's not just evil she E-Ville. Man I hope Supes is right and she goes this week. j   Top

dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser" 03-27-01, 10:43 PM (EST) 43. "RE: Agree" well, how could we not agree, dangerboy? love, dangerkitty   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-26-01, 04:18 PM (EST) 22. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" Well, Cat, I guess you're the only one. Just kidding! Seriously, I didn't see it as making Jerri look more diabolic. I also posted earlier the idea that MB had Jerri sing that song. I still think that MB's intent in showing us that clip now, AND NOT IN THE EARLIER SHOW, was to redeem Jerri. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

rameses 89 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-26-01, 07:35 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" I agree with you, Dawg and Supe. I think the evidence of the shopping trip is what convinces me. Skupin said they all came home on the plane together, yet Alicia and Jerri found five days to go shopping at some point. I know voted off members have to be at tribal council, but that's only once every 3 days for a short period of time that nite. The 5 days may be throwing everyone off. You can go shopping for 5 days without having to be gone overnite. Trust me, I know!!! And, of course, Mark Burnett burned everyone so badly last year with his hints at a "crack in the alliance" that no one wants to believe it will happen this year either. But let's face it...at some point Jeff and Alicia AND Jerri are going to become very close friends.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-26-01, 10:49 AM (EST) 16. "Jerri would be "shocking twist"" Superman, I agree the "shocking twist" is related to who gets the boot. Jerri, I'm hoping, but still looking for support evidence.Here is my thinking: <http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1048.shtml#17>;   Top

IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-26-01, 08:11 AM (EST) 15. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" SurvivinDawg, You have probably already covered this, but could you please explain your theory as to why Tina/Keith are going to risk Amber becoming the swing vote in a Kucha resurgence. I see this as the inevitable result of an EP9 Jerri ouster as Amber cannot be trusted to remain in an Ogakor voting block if her 'evil master' is dismissed. If it is, as a few have posted recently, simply a case of emotion outweighing the logic of potential voting numbers I'm afraid that I would have to come down on the side of logic. VulcanCat   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-26-01, 10:59 AM (EST) 17. "Difficult Decision?" LAST EDITED ON 03-26-01 AT 11:00 AM (EST) Not to answer for SurvivinDawg, but one possibility is that this leads to the "difficult decision" refered to in the EP10 previews. If Amber had to switch loyalties, or if the Ogakor had to vote her off for trying, or who knows what else...all could be considered "difficult decisions".   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-26-01, 03:19 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" IceCat, Since Dawg and I have a very similar theory on this subject, I will jump in and give some thoughts. Dawg can add whatever is missed. You are right in suspecting that Amber would be a risk. But here's why she would not defect: 1. Tina and Amber have had a pretty good relationship and were quite close early on. Tina, knowing Amber will need reassurance, will convince her that the need to remove Jerri has nothing to do with her, and is simply a matter of everyone having enough. 2. Amber will believe this. C'mon, she knows Jerri has made waves with just about everyone. If she goes along with the Jerri ouster, she will seem to restore her battered image, which she felt damaged when she returned from dinner in E8. 3. Amber, by sticking with C/T/K can assume she will be in the Final 4, a step up from what she could have been guaranteed prior, which would be Final 5. 4. If she were to defect, she would most likely be the first one targeted if the other three were Kucha. She also would stand little chance of winning, should she make the final two, because she would be the "rat," and the snake eats the rat. 5. If she thinks this deeply about it, she will believe that she has a good chance of winning by staying the course and ending up in final 2 against either Keith or Tina, because they will be quite possibly be seen as disloyal. All that said, I think it's fair to say that Tina (and Keith) could feel safe with Amber. After all, she will be a lost sheep without Jerri and will cling to those closer to her - in this case Mama Ewe Tina.   Top

Annadad 26 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-26-01, 08:27 PM (EST) 29. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" >IceCat, > >Since Dawg and I have a >very similar theory on this >subject, I will jump in >and give some thoughts. >Dawg can add whatever is >missed. > >You are right in suspecting that >Amber would be a risk. > But here's why she >would not defect: > >1. Tina and Amber have had >a pretty good relationship and >were quite close early on. > Tina, knowing Amber will >need reassurance, will convince her >that the need to remove >Jerri has nothing to do >with her, and is simply >a matter of everyone having >enough. Going in to the next vote, Amber believes that the Ogies are going to stick together and knock out the remaining three Kuchas all in a row. She also believes that she has a sub-alliance with Jerri and Colby to get into the final three and likely another sub-alliance with jerri to get her into the final two. If the Ogies vote out Jerri now, all these hopes of Amber's go down the drain. Poor Dimber, betrayed by her own Tribe and all her expectations to make the final two up in Skupin smoke. I don't think a few kind words from Tina will do the trick, especially since Amber will have witnessed first hand Tina's betrayals of Maralyn, Mitchell and now Jerri. >2. Amber will believe this. >C'mon, she knows Jerri has >made waves with just about >everyone. If she goes >along with the Jerri ouster, >she will seem to restore >her battered image, which she >felt damaged when she returned >from dinner in E8. Since her Ogakor buddies didn't let her in on the Jerri ousting, why would she think she can suddenly restore her image? If you kill Batman, would Robin believe you when you say, "hey, we like you its just the bat guy we hated"? As dim as Dimber may be, she isn't going to believe that she is going anywhere past the final four and not even that far if a Kucha wins immunity when they are down to 4 Ogies and 1 Kucha, Amber would be the sacrificial lamber then. >3. Amber, by sticking with C/T/K >can assume she will be >in the Final 4, a >step up from what she >could have been guaranteed prior, >which would be Final 5. Maybe so but if she defects to the three remaining Kucha she also gets in to the final four. She gains nothing on that score by sticking with the Jerri killers. Actually, I think Amber would have an easier time winning challenges against Roger, Nick and Lis than she would against Colby, Keith and Tina. Since she gets into the final four eitherway, why not go with the people she can beat in challenges? >4. If she were to defect, >she would most likely be >the first one targeted if >the other three were Kucha. > She also would stand >little chance of winning, should >she make the final two, >because she would be the >"rat," and the snake eats >the rat. Good point but remember, the people she dumped, Colby, Keith and Tina are the ones who first betrayed tribal loyalty by ousting Jerri. They would be on pretty shaky ground to complain when Amber does to them what they did to Jerri and were planning to do to her. >5. If she thinks this deeply >about it, she will believe >that she has a good >chance of winning by staying >the course and ending up >in final 2 against either >Keith or Tina, because they >will be quite possibly be >seen as disloyal. Why would she think she won't be the first one targeted by the other Ogies? They ousted her best friend and ally, Tina betrayed not one, not two but three fellow Ogies, Colby lied to her and Jerri and the whole lot of them betrayed the tribal loyalty principal that no one in either tribe has violated since the Ogies acted against their own best interests in dumping Kel. Amber is supposed to think that they will keep her around beyond the final four? >All that said, I think it's >fair to say that Tina >(and Keith) could feel safe >with Amber. After all, >she will be a lost >sheep without Jerri and will >cling to those closer to >her - in this case >Mama Ewe Tina. Jerri hates Keith, Amber is Jerri's best friend. "The enemy of my friend is my enemy." Therefore, Amber hates Keith. Amber really hates Keith after he ousts Jerri along with Colby and Tina instead of voting out another Kucha as planned. Amber was right there when Colby told them he is with them and not Colby and Tina, is Amber to trust Colby after seeing him "done like a dawg"? The real question is what advantage is gained by Colby/Keith/Tina by voting out Jerri now instead of later? Yes, life at Barramundi would be more pleasant but these people aren't putting up with no food, no toilets, no hot water, fire ants, snakes, crocs, eating chicken feed etc just to risk losing a million bucks becasue they couldn't wait a few days longer to get rid of an annoying bartender/actress. Losing Amber might only be a small risk but later on it is a zero risk. If I have a choice between two options, one that yeilds a 1% chance of being ousted before the final four and the second choice has a 0% of taking me out before the final four, with a million at stake, why take event the smallest risk? I hate myself for not agreeing with you and I hope I'm wrong but I think Jerri is around until Ep 11.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-26-01, 04:57 PM (EST) 23. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" Live long and prosper, VulcanCat. I can assure you that emotion does not play any role in any Survivor theories I have formed. Unlike many others, I will lose not one minute of sleep if Jerri is waxed or if Jerri remains, and the same goes for the rest of them. Before I begin my thesis on why Jerri is next, including the Amber reasons, let me say that it is entirely possible that many of you are correct and a Kucha will be next. That certainly would be the more logical approach for the Ogies AS A GROUP. But here are my reasons. Before ere I even saw Ep. 8, I knew these factors: 1) Colby cannot continue playing both ends against the middle with the Ogakor alliance. 2) Keith and Tina's dislike for Jerri might cause them to ally with the Kuchas to oust Jerri, but only after it's safe and Ogakor can maintain their numbers advantage. 3) If Alicia had won immunity in Ep. 8, I envisioned an "all-Female" theory, where Jerri, Amber and the Kucha women would ally to oust all the men. This would satisfy the "all-Female" Cameraman spoiler stated some time ago. Ep. 8 showed us these things: 1) Colby was painted into a corner by Jerri in the "Hyena" night chat, forcing Colby to lie to Jerri (he SAYS he's lying to Jerri, so we'll take that as true). This shows the potential danger he is in by allowing this situation to continue to be in flux. 2) After Jerri and Amber left for their Reward dinner, the Barracuda Tribe supper table-talk was about one person: Jerri. It is clear that everyone is digusted with her, Lis was boiling mad, Keith has just about had it with Jerri, and earlier Tina made a distinct point to slam Jerri with her "judgement" comment. It's clear that everyone wants her gone. 3) Alicia didn't win immunity, so there's no real chance for Jerri to form any alliances with any Kucha. Jerri had two opportunities to do so (helping with the cooking instead of berating Lis for it; sharing RC with a Kucha) and she failed. And, more importantly to your question, this: 4) Amber really felt the cold shoulder presented by the others after returning from RC. This really affected her, and MB made a point to show this to the max on the show. 5) Amber and Colby hugged warmly after the "Hyena" chat. Jerri had to *BEG*, I say again *BEG* Colby for a hug. So, I have concluded these things: 1) Amber is not as lap-dog loyal to Jerri as she used to be, and if she figures out or has explained to her that the reasons for the cold shoulder is for Jerri, I expect the light bulb coming on inside her pretty little head to blind us all. Amber is going to understand, or it will be explained to her, that to remain close to Jerri is a good way to get her (Amber's) torch extinguished in TC. 2) Amber might figure out anyway, and Colby might lead her to believe, that a final four of Colby, Amber, Keith, and Tina is the way to go, that Colby and Amber will be the final two. 3) No matter what, Amber knows that to defect to the Kucha's will get her into the top four, but NO FURTHER. The Kucha's still remember the skin dripping of Mike's fingers. Yeah, they'll ally with her to beat the Ogies, but they won't show any gratitude when it counts! So Amber is still likely to vote with the Ogies next time. 3) Keith and Tina can gain puppy points with the Kuchas (who will be on the Jury) if they ally with those Kucha now and wax Jerri. 4) Colby can go ahead and stop playing both sides and make things a LOT safer for him by waxing Jerri now. 5) and very importantly... by eliminating Jerri's presence, everyone else can just have more peace, quiet, and fun for the rest of the game. The difference in our ways of thinking is that I do NOT think Amber will defect to Kucha, even if Jerri is waxed next. If Colby is smart, he will use this to his advantage, letting Keith and Tina vote with the Kucha, and encouraging Amber (and himself) to vote for KEITH, giving Keith some extra votes. This is what I think SHOULD happen, but it is very possible that your way of thinking will prevail and another Kucha will go next. Time will tell. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-26-01, 07:49 PM (EST) 26. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" Nice summary Dawg! If Amber were involved in a Jerri boot, either directly with a vote or indirectly with covert support, it would make sense to describe this week's TC as "a shocking twist". People would be talking the next day about how glad they are that she is finally gone. If Amber actually voted against Jerri, it would also explain the apparent lack of contact between Jerri and Amber since they came back to the States. Alicia became Jerri's friend after Amber betrayed her...   Top

GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 03:45 AM (EST) 32. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" >If Amber actually voted against Jerri, >it would also explain the >apparent lack of contact between >Jerri and Amber since they >came back to the States. Unless it was Jerri who did the betraying, in which case the lack of contact would still hold true. What I can't quite rationalize however is why one voting against the other would cause such animosity. Before the merge, Jerri still got a few votes from her own tribe members didn't she? I suspect something in the buildup to TC - a fully fledged bustup in front of others perhaps along the lines of Alicia/Kimmi preciptates the betrayl. >Alicia became Jerri's friend after >Amber betrayed her... Is this time frame a certainty?   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 03-26-01, 07:53 PM (EST) 27. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" Very nice points all the way around Play2Survive/SurvivinDawg/et al you have made me want to come back and join the fray, and although this is probably a topic that I should leave at "we agree to disagree" I've decide to reevaluate this whole scenario. Based on what I can tell, the people who believe that Jerri goes this week primarily base this on 4 things 1) the Alisha's Friend theory, 2) the softening of the Jerri image, 3) the "shocking twist" tease, and 4) Amber's continued loyalty. So with an open mind let's look at each of these... Alisha's Friend In the same vein as Debb and Mad Dog, I must agree it looks good that the evil queen will die sometime in the near future. From logistics alone I can not envision a way that Jerri can even make the final 4 and still have an opportunity to bond with Alisha and recover from the game. Based on the known facts that there are 3 days between each TC, except for the last one which is only 1 day, we can run the numbers and determine that the recovery time for 3rd place is 1 day, and 4th place is 4 days. Assuming, at a MINIMUM, your first 2-3 days out is consumed with eating, cleaning, resting, and in general recovering... it is highly unlikely that Jerri makes it this far and still bonds/recovers in enough time to want to go Outback shopping. So that puts her no better than 5th with a week to recover and make a new friend. Assuming you further believe that the 5 days after, that Jerri's mom and Alisha were referring to, were really 5 days during the ranch exile... lets see 1-2 (0), 3 (1), 4 (4), 5 (7), 6 (10), 7 (13), 8 (16)... hum... a generous 3-5 days to recover & make a new friend... plus 5 days to go shopping... puts us at a 6th-8th place finish. (BTW I think Jerri & Alisha went after the wrap party not during their jury time... but for the sake of argument I'm trying to make the same assumptions I think you are... and please, for the love of God, don't bring back up the Mike can't lie thing!!!). Jerri-So-Soft The only thing I can equate this theory to is the "face time" corollary (FTC) that basically says... the more they show your face the more likely you are to go (based solely on this Nick is your winner... but I digress). No doubt that 8.5 softened Jerri's image as evident in the media coverage alone... but how does that fit in with the FTC? I do not in any way shape or form disagree that MB frames the images you see to meet the goal/subplot/storyline he is pushing... but does this mean Jerri goes this week? Not necessarily... and until someone can put more of a quantative measurement on the FTC it is only useful in retrospect (example of FTC failing... ep8 features 2 people Jerri and Lis... neither goes... by the way, when was the last time Alisha WAS featured? definitely not ep7 either). Also... one more point about this, ep8.5 was not originally planned to be shown, and was added only after CBS decided to suck a little more money out of its sponsors. Based on that it is hard to believe that this has been some master plan of MB's from the beginning to build up Jerri's evil and then tone it down in an episode that would not have even been shown if CBS had not gotten greedy. I'm not totally discount the Jerri-So-Soft images from ep8.5, but I would pay them a lot more significance if they continue in the coming episodes. However I doubt it will happen again before the episode she leaves in (based on previews that ain't this week!). "Shocking" Twist Based on previous comments I take this as being one of the driving forces behind the "Jerri gone" rational, and although I'm convinced of a kucha evictee this week... lets assume for a moment it is an Ogre instead. First off icecat has already gone over most of my argument (above) on why Jerri's a bad play in ep9, but an even more compelling reason besides the pure math thing is "Would it really be a "shocking" twist?" The answer would be yes to anyone posting on this board, but I'm not convinced it would be all that shocking to the average fan. The average fan's have been led to expect Jerri will leave sometime soon, and although people like me have sat down with our abacuses and figured out to the last decimal point the utter foolishness of this strategy... I would venture to guess that John Q. Public is probably saying 5-3... now the numbers are in their favor... WooHoo... Jerri's gonna go!!! Jerri's gonna go!!! and this without near the amount of thought SurvivinDawg has placed on the question. Point being, for a large percentage of people it will only be a "shock" if it's an Ogre whose name does not begin with the letter "J". So, would that be possible? We would be left with Amber, Keith, Tina, and Colby to choose from. Assuming that the Ogre's want to stay "in charge" of the game and have not made some covert alliance with the kucha (i.e tribal suicide) is anyone venerable? Well, Amber causes worse math problems that Jerri did. Keith is unlikely to want Tina removed because he knows he would be a target of Jerri's. Tina is unlikely to want Keith removed because she then would become Jerri's target. Colby appears to be in the middle of everything... so if T/K approaches J/A and says, "hey, Colby's a threat to everyone... and we promise (wink, wink) we 4 (K/T/J/A) go to the final 4... together 4 evermore"... then bye bye Colby... the only Ogre without an openly strong ally is the only one that could be venerable without committing obvious tribal suicide. (BTW if this happens it will backfire on J/A and Jerri will still be gone no later than 5...). The lights are on... is Amber home... Amber will remain loyal forever... hum... it's possible... and maybe just maybe probable. For a chance at $1,000,000, do you risk it? ... hum ... Let's look a little closer. If you're T/K/C you must realize that a final 2 matchup with Lis or Rodger means you go home second, and a final 2 matchup with Nick means you most likely go home second. So kill Jerri this week, retain Amber, and you have a 4-3 advantage... someone pulls a Mike... and you're in deep dodo! For a chance at $1,000,000, do you risk it? ... hum ... Also none of this would be lost on our friendly kucha's... perhaps the Lis logic comes at you like this "You're no better than 4th with them... with us sick old kuchas 2 IC get's you in the final... with a Ogre majority jury." For a chance at $1,000,000 do you risk it? ... hum ... Not this week! (BTW this could get Lis and Amber in the final... and you know what? Amber might just win... and then again she might have 900,000 really good reason to never talk to Jerri again...) So based on all of this I still must conclude that a kucha is the most likely evictee... if it has to be an Ogre I'd have to bet on Colby before Jerri (which would make this idiot very unhappy... I know, I know it's not logical... but us Texas boy's gotta stick together... it's required by law ). Lis, Nick, Jerri, Amber, Rodger, Keith, Tina, Colby (4-3) Final 1 Duke   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-26-01, 08:26 PM (EST) 28. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" It's true that MB didn't know he was adding this "clips" episode when he first edited the show. But he also didn't know for sure how the public would respond to Jerri either. Maybe MB feels the public actually hates Jerri more than he ever imagined. So now he has his chance to try and make her appear not quite as bad before she has to do the interviews. So he shows a little softer Jerri in the clips show. The soft side of Jerri didn't help me. I still dislike her strongly.   Top

Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 03-27-01, 04:19 AM (EST) 33. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" IdiotCowboy, I like your style. What's really interesting is that is there enough time to get Jerri booted this week given all the "new friends?" 1. JP has been saying for two episodes -- "new friends and relationships will develop. You've all had a long night, head on back to camp." 2. E8 showed interactions between K/R and Elisabeth definitely went to Tina. Meanwhile, Jerri and Colby were doing their thing. Nick was probably asleep somewhere and Amber was likely braiding her hair. Nick is the target in Kucha and Colby a concern in Ogakor. 3. E9 likely has the reward challenge on the first day of the episode based on weather. It's the only sunny day of the three and we see T/R in a race of sorts. The second day it rained. Not much chance to get off alone, I'd say. And, it was at least part of the time that the reward winners will go off together having spent overnight in a hotel? The third day was overcast and held the IC. I don't see where too much time is available to discuss things. Evening of day one, morning of day 3 and after the IC? 4. Toss in polluted water and the possibility a flood or wash out of the camp? Sounds like people will be preoccupied. ---- I don't doubt something could start or even continue from E8, but to develope a scenario or two that omits Colby and Nick and concentrates on K/R/T/E/J/A in some form of 4-2 combination could take more time. R/E would have to discuss things and K/T discuss things and J/A are virtually separated during most of this episode. Hitting Jerri may still be something most of them want to do, but they haven't got it all together yet. MB needs to develop an even bigger hate for Jerri. It could easily include the flood versus the shelter location, but I see Nick leaving in E9.   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 03-28-01, 00:44 AM (EST) 45. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" Minstrel, I agree with most of what your saying here. Changing alliances can't be easy (staying with them is hard enough)... throw in a RC that removes a couple of player (regardless of who) for an evening and it will be really difficult to get it done for this weeks show. The only disagreement/question I have is with Nick... are you implying that Nick might be disloyal to kucha, or is it you feel he would be Ogre's next target? I could possibly see Nick thinking his best bet is to abandon kucha if he can (neither Lis or Rodger appear able to make this leap... independently), and who knows maybe Keith or Colby or even Jerri would be interested if he could spend some quality time with them (and the way he's being edited who would know if he did ). However if your contention is he is the next Ogre target I would have to disagree. Lis and Rodger are too close to be allowed to remain together (2 votes... same name... EVERY time)... unless Lis wins IC... and the Ogre's don't do something "shocking"... it's Lis's turn to go... and if Lis does win IC... the shocking move might just be Rodger (ie the weakest and friendlist kucha). Just a thought.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-27-01, 06:51 AM (EST) 35. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" >Based on what I can tell, >the people who believe that >Jerri goes this week primarily base this on >4 things 1) the Alisha's >Friend theory, 2) the softening of the >Jerri image, 3) the "shocking >twist" tease, and 4) Amber's continued >loyalty. Allow me to clarify that my thesis was based what what I think SHOULD happen, not what MIGHT happen. I am taking the risk of thinking that these players have the brains to see what's going on out there. So I could very easily be wrong. But what I was basing my thesis on are these things: 1) Colby's tenuous position playing both sides of the Ogie alliance, 2) EVERYONE'S (meaning every contestant's) desire to see Jerri gone, 3) almost as you mentioned, Amber's LACK of loyalty to Jerri. The Alicia/Jerri theory leads me to believe that Jerri will be gone soon, but isn't enough by itself to say Jerri will be gone next. The "shocking twist" could be anything from a tornado to a twisted ankle or shoulder to Rodger winning immunity to the camp being flooded and/or washed away, to Jerri publicly demanding that pickle tickle from Colby (or JP) . The softening of Jerri's image is an idea that must be considered, but several people who suggest it'll take one more episode to complete the job have a good point (but can MB redeem Jerri and still give her 3 extra days to alienate everyone some more???). Jerri has gotten face time from minute one, so that's no real indicator. >what? Amber might just win... and >then again she might have >900,000 >really good reason to never talk >to Jerri again...) Excellent, EXCELLENT point! A SCINTILLATING point! Adding to it: I remember reading (probably on this board somewhere) that Amber has had very little communication with any of the other 15 contestants, not just Jerri. She might have 900,000 good reasons to not talk with anyone else again. She also might just be the dishrag we think she is. Remember how she was at the RC dinner talking about everyone else... keeping her eyes lowered, seemingly uncomfortable talking about it. Maybe she's not very happy playing the game and would walk away now if it weren't for those 900,000 to 1,000,000 good reasons.... *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 03-28-01, 00:48 AM (EST) 46. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" SurvivinDawg- Thanks to your (and others) fine work on this thread I was beginning to question my conviction about Jerri not being gone before ep11. So my goal was to take a step back and run through what I felt were the most compelling and prevalent points that were running throughout this thread. In doing so I identified the four that were addressed in my previous post. Unfortunately I completely missed at least one of yours and marginally addressed the others, so with my humble apology let me address the points from your clarification... Colby in the Middle You are absolutely correct here. Colby can not afford to continue in the middle of this alliance for much longer. At some point a definitive move must be made if he intends on even being in the final 4... so the question is when?! He knows he is in the drivers seat and I'm sure it must be very tempting to him to try and play this out to an all Ogre final 5... but if he does this he risks moves by Jerri, Tina, Keith or even Amber to oust him on the way... and with his previous votes agains,t he's vulnerable... so when do you make your move? this week is certainly possible, but only if you are convinced that Amber can be counted on to follow your/Tina's lead... or if you feel Jerri no longer trusts you and a preemptive strike is the only way to ensure you're not targeted instead (very risky if Amber is not already on board). Jerri Must Die Once again you are correct here as well. NOBODY likes Jerri anymore (with the exception of Amber... and she may be wising up)... but is that enough to risk your shot at $1,000,000? ... hum .... she is obnoxious ... someone must pay for the camp placement blunder ... you don't want her in the final 4 if your Keith, Tina because of double cross potential with Colby ... you don't want her if your in the final 4 if your Colby because you fear she will oust you once you move on either Tina or Keith... Okay she gotta go... but this week? ... hum ... Amber the Loyal? MB has certainly painted her that way for the last few weeks... but since you NEVER see her without Jerri... you can never be sure. As far as we know she already has a master plan with Colby or Tina or some kucha (like she and Nick the Invisible Duo) to take everyone out one by one... but it seems unlikely... I do though agree that she is not nearly as loyal to Jerri as we have been led to believe thus far... so... 3 for 3 points well made. ...but this week?... it's still gotta be a kucha. Although I must admit at this point with the work here and CJ's on Keith I'm to the point where it won't be a "shocking twist" to me unless it's Amber or Tina. ... and I'd be willing to lay some $$$ against either of those! (if I had any ) Lis, Nick, Jerri, Rodger, Amber, Keith, Tina, Colby (4-3) Final 1 - Duke   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-27-01, 11:43 PM (EST) 44. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" Great analysis, but if playing smart, why not keep Jerri around til the Final 4 since she has the most votes against her to this point?   Top

Annadad 26 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-26-01, 07:43 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" I wonder if we aren't over thinking and over reacting to things here. Remember all the hulabaloo about the forest fire? It ended up amounting to nothing more than smoke in our eyes, literaly and figuratively. Shocking twists, polluted water, scarce food, these may all be overblown descriptions of minor events that pop up during an episode. The simplest path is for the Ogies to continue to vote off Kuchas one by one. Yes, they can get rid of Jerri at some point but it is too soon to do it now. If they vote Jerri off now, they end up with a 4-3 Ogie-Kucha split next TC. Amber would be without Jerri and unless she is utterly brainless she would know that, duh, the alliance she thought she had with Colby and Jerri is history. Amber would have to do something. Off to Kucha she goes and suddenly, Keith, Colby and Tina are in the minority. The same logic, voting out Jerri causing an Amber defection to remaining Kuchas, leads to the conclusion that it might not be safe to oust Jerri until it is 5 Ogies to 1 Kucha. I also think that Colby may be pulling our leg when he tells us he is only pretending to be with the Jerri/Amber sub-alliance. My reasons are in my post under the GUT thread. SurvivinDawg has consistently and pesuasively argued for a Jerri ouster this week. I don't agree but I admire persistence and sound logic.   Top

GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-26-01, 03:32 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" LAST EDITED ON 03-26-01 AT 03:56 PM (EST) Icecat/Kitty/Play2survive (or anyone else)- I'm not fully up to speed on the other threads so could you just flesh the bones on the Alicia/Jerri shopping trip, especially when this took place. Am just thinking that with Alicia on the jury, she's there to the end anyway so why does Jerri necessarily have to be voted off sooner rather than later for them to bond? Even a post-wrap series party would be enough time. Have a few drinks, get to know each other, discover common interests, one suggests hey what about a shopping trip before we leave, could be fun. You also mention Alicia saying through various media channels that Jerri is not as bad as she's made out to be on S2. But did she ever specifically say they had become friends? There is a difference. Still sticking with my initial theory that Ep.8.5 is MB's way of softening Jerri in the 'calm before the storm' and that she has an good chance of being in the final four. Probably saw Gladiator, liked it so much and wanted to renact the scene at the beginning where Russel Crowe's character says "On my command, unleash hell". Again, why spend eight weeks showing not a single redeeming feature of Jerri and then attempt to level her character out in filler episode. MB could easily have given us a nice tidbit at any stage. And if as Icecat says, her singing is gloating - and I agree - doesn't it defeat the purpose of trying to invoke our sympathy for her in supposed prepration for her imminent boot in Ep9 or 10? Survivin Dawg, care to debunk? Does anyone feel less antagonsitic to Jerri because of Ep8.5 anyway? P.S. Play2survive, can I call you P2S? Less to type. A thing about your theory on Keith/Tina looking to take in Amber. As I mentioned earlier in the thread, they don't need her or anyone else in a final four because they have less pevious votes compared to whoever Amber pairs up with. And they'll take out that person, be it Colby or Jerri. C or J have more previous votes each than Keith does if my math is right.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-26-01, 07:29 PM (EST) 24. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" GG - Yes, others have shortened my name to P2S and it works for me. Regarding Jerri and Alicia. We knew for quite some time that Jerri spent 5 days in the outback shopping with a friend. However it wasn't until Alicia made the talk show curcuit that we learned it was her - not Amber - that shopped with Jerri. She has also said Jerri wasn't so bad, but no, I cannot source those interviews now. If someone knows exactly what Alicia said about Jerri feel free to fill us in. There has been a fair amount of debate about how much time is needed to agree to spend that much time with someone. One thing we do know, Alicia and Jerri had very little time together in the outback, so the bonding must have happened after both were booted. Some people have argued - and I tend to agree - that this is conclusive enough evidence that Jerri does not make it into the Final 4. Sure anyone can be totally spontaneous and decide to spend such time with someone they don't know well, but it's very unlikely. And as far as the softening we're all talking about - let's be honest, MB can only do so much to make us try to like somebody. I think he villianized her in the first 6 or so episodes and began softening her before E8.5. In fact, when Jerri and team lost "blind leading the blind," Amber looked stupid and Colby looked like a bit of a prick by throwing the water on her. In E8 we saw her losing control and, actually, we see that she is becoming the "victim" not the villian, with Colby lying to her and everyone else giving her the cold shoulder. I think this is where MB is trying to lighten the blow a bit, knowing he has made her appear worse than she is and that she has to go on with her life. So Jeff and Alicia say nice things about her, and she seems a bit nicer in E8.5, just prior to her facing America. Yes, it could drag on, but I think MB knows that would piss-off and alienate a huge % of his audience. So Jerri must go soon. Regarding T/K and Amber. Let me clarify: I have suggested that K/T can take control of the game by ousting Jerri (their competition for Colby's favor) this week. In response, people have pointed out why Amber could be a liability. In the above post I explained why I seriously don't think Amber would defect. You're right though - K/T would not NEED Amber. They would, however, need Amber to believe they do.   Top

GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 04:47 AM (EST) 34. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" P2S, Appreciate the clarification. You'll excuse me for laboring this: The assertion that Alicia and Jerri had very little time together in the outback and therefore the bonding took place after both were booted. OK, sounds reasonable to me. But how does it translate to proof that Jerri doesn't make it to the final 4? Haven't you just contradicted yourself? If Jerri and Alicia didn't have enough time together in the Outback that would also mean their time together on the jury was limited wouldn't it? Which by extension implies Jerri isn't voted off so soon. I did argue that perhaps only a post-wrap party may have been sufficient time to bond but I'm wiiling to accept now that probably isn't the case. So if the bonding did indeed occur after the show, how can the seeds of their relationship be laid, never mind developed until much later on. True, it doesn't equate to Jerri lasting a while yet in the tribe but it also doesn't mean she is voted off in either of the next two episodes. In fact, there is no direct correlation whatsoever on both counts relative to Jerri's contest duration. One more thing. I think MB knew exactly what he was doing by painting Jerri as the villan. He knew how that would come across to the audience from the get go and that everyone wants to see her fall. No need to perpetuate a different myth now especially since it insults our intelligence to suggest that she's not all bad. Of course she isn't, she's just a lot more bad than good. MB shouldn't have to 'preapre' us for a Jerri boot in Ep.9 or 10 by softening her up. It removes any element of surprise. Remember a couple of episodes back when the teaser strongly alluded that Jerri would be one to go. Everyone rightly agreed that it was a poorly conceived ruse. Nobody in this forum bought it. So by applying that same logic we should dismiss the spoiler value of Jerri being softened up for a fall. Maybe as you argue this is MB's way smoothing things out before the media interviews, but Jeff and Alicia have done that to an extent already. Does he really need to empahsise it further?   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-27-01, 10:20 AM (EST) 37. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" GG - I think that the Jerri/Alicia thing can be discussed in many scenarios and is not entirely conclusive. It is my feeling that such a trip would require a fair amount of time (days) to kick-start. Now, you mention the jury and I think I might be missing something. If Jerri stays, Alicia comes back one night every three days for the TC and nothing else. The survivors vote, someone leaves, Alicia watches it all and leaves. So there is no social time involved. As far as MB and the teaser from a few weeks ago - I'm doing my best to hone my intuitition, which is the best we can do with many of his suggestions. Some we have seen through, but in many cases it's just a guess. I feel strongly that this time he's putting the truth right on our laps. I work in marketing, and from that angle, I just can't see him manipulating the public any further about Jerri, knowing it almost certainly will damage his ratings. Whether it's E9 or E10, I still am wavering. But it will not be any later.   Top

GG 142 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 03-27-01, 03:49 PM (EST) 39. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" OK P2S, point well made. If Jerri does leave next episode or the one after I'll be cheering like everyone else. I'm still looking beyond that but based on your increasingly persuasive arguments I'm prepared to downgrade Jerri to the final five or six. Which would give her and Alicia 2-3 TC to attend together as part of the jury. Incidentally, are the jury allowed to mingle outside TC (the days when they're not there to assess?   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-27-01, 04:08 PM (EST) 40. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" GG - jury members stay at the ranch together, along with any non-jury bootees that aren't traveling. Every 3rd evening they take the trek to tribal council and back. Since they are required to be at all TC's they basically stay at the ranch, as I understand it. It's presumed that there's not a whole lot to do, so that is when/where an Alicia/Jerri friendship would most likely be initiated.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-27-01, 07:15 AM (EST) 36. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" >Yes, it could drag on, but I think MB knows that >would piss-off and alienate a huge % of his audience. > So Jerri must go soon. I don't know if you saw it, P2S, but some time ago I posted to a thread about Jerri. I said then, and confirm what you are saying now by repeating: Jerri has been almost the main focus of the show from Day 1, she is hated, and MB loves it and has played it up to the hilt. But with the Survivor endgame coming up, the Jerri saga will blind out the drama of the Final Four (Survivor, not NCAA), therefore MB has good reason not to attempt to prolong her storyline (or presence, for that matter). Therefore, I agree with you that MB can't allow Jerri to remain the Bad Girl Of The Outback too much longer. *** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-27-01, 04:22 PM (EST) 41. "RE: Jerri's Staying Put" These pros and cons all seem well reasoned to me, so I'm not sure what to think, but have just a couple comments responding to speculation about what Burnett wants to accomplish: 1) I don't see Ep 8.5 as designed specifically as a prelude to Ep. 9 or even 10. To me it's the opener to the second half of the show, to life as Barramundi, in which I think that MB hoped that the original tribal identifications would fall apart (whether that happened or not we have yet to see). 2)I've been reading Burnett's "Survivor," which everyone else on this board has doubtless read, and a few things struck me that might pertain to this game. I get the distinct impression that MB has a "genuine" (I know, what are those words doing together) fascination with what this game does to the individual, to the person's psyche, in this situation. He's not interested in having tribes stick together; he's interested in the tribal dynamic because it makes people jockey for alpha position, because it makes people devise strategies for fitting in, and it makes everyone extremely insecure about how they present themselves to others. He believes most people's resolutions to play the game logically get sideswiped by the hunger, desires, conflicts, distrust. Although self-interest rules, where the best path lies keeps changing with each episode, AND some players thought a lot about the kind of ethical persona they would present to national TV, friends and family when it was over. Everything MB writes about Tagi shows them constantly re-evaluating their sub-alliances after the merger, despite the fact that they're a shoe-in for Final 4 if they stay pat. Anyone's conversation with anyone else feeds the paranoia that allies are switching their votes, and that sends the paranoid person out to feel out new possibilities. 3) As for whether Jerri is being rehabilitated specifically because her boot is imminent: Some theories here seem to assume that MB thinks that Jerri as megavillain makes for a ratings monster. I somewhat disagree in that I think he has a more complicated agenda with presenting this show than ratings alone. He wants to display the complex forces at play rather than black-and-white good guys/bad guys. He wants this show to have a different kind of plot, one with complicated people, with dark sides and strengths being brought out by the competition and deprivation. MB said the whole S1 crew was caught up in rooting for and hating the various players, but the players they liked and disliked changed all the time (except that they loved Gretchen). Clearly, MB enjoys that shifting. If he chose Ep 8.5 to show that Jerri at least brought herself to make an apology, there's reason enough (without an imminent boot) to make her less one-dimensional, because he let the pendulum swing very far in order to heighten the drama produced through conflict with Jerri. Let's face it, he didn't have much else to work with in Ogakor besides the Jerri irritation factor and the backstabbing that went on with Mitchell's boot. They were the slacker team as far as improving their camp went, and they didn't have a psycho Mike or pro-chicken Kimmi or anything approaching Greg's colorful psycho personality in S1. Jerri's badness saved the first half with Ogakor from tedium. It would guess that Burnett wants the last half of the show move away from a narrow focus on Jerri, because hopefully the other players become more interesting dramatically as they each grapple with their tenuous situation and insecurities mount. The end of all alliances as large as 4 or 5 people is around the corner. Snakes and rats will start jumping and Burnett will have more material, need Jerri less to provide tension. I think that before Jerri's demise, Burnett needs to have humanized her a bit (not for sympathy, but for complexity), possibly done in Ep 8.5, but maybe needing more work, AND built up our interest in the other individuals so that Jerri's ousting doesn't leave an emotional vacuum for the audience. It's all very well to say there will be a great catharsis when Jerri goes, but then what? The replacement focus should already be in place, ready to grab our attention. So far it's not, that I can see, because Jerri has been the center of our attention. The worst thing for Burnett from a plot perspective would be to focus on one player that gets ousted 3/4 of the way through and is followed by anti-climax. Either she stays around or he starts SOON to develop other characters' stories in ways that aren't built around their conflict or loyalty with Jerri. My apologies that this post is more ruminating than pointed. I truly think there are a variety of ways things could shift at this point and hold no firm conviction of which one's right. I just hope that the whole tribal alliance thing falls apart. I believe that both Jeff P and Mark B wanted that kind of shift to anarchy badly, and that whatever influence they had was exerted towards encouraging the players to jump ship and seek out new angles on self-preservation, and that's a force to be reckoned with, considering the extreme physical and psychological environment these people are facing. "Give me ambivalence, or give me something else..."   Top

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