16.) Ghandia - She seems like a total Kathy right down to being a firey, outspoken Capricorn (she describes herself as a Diva, seems to be frustrated in one of the promos, also describes herself as out of shape) but I don't think she'll have Kathy's luck (win streak early on). Also, if you believe GDiva is indeed her, she sounds very bitter towards her team.

15.) Jan - Physical liability relative to the rest of the team. When you're on a losing streak this should be the logical vote (unless you're Maraamu, of course). Pfffft to Jan weightloss spoilers.

14.) Jake - He doesn't seem like the wishy-washy grandfatherly type. And using many past examples from more than one reality show, the non-grandfatherly older man put together with a group of youngsters doesn't point to him lasting very long.

13.) John - Seen only with the red buff; big with the media....by the way I'm using a similar pattern to the one I started with last season so that should explain a few of these early boots if you're like: "Huh?" (And hey, although I wasn't right with all of my picks, it did pick Rob/Sarah/Hunter/Gina as pre-jury when most others had them as the final 4, and somewhat helped with Paschal/Neleh final 4 in the way I had to pick 2 of 5, although I did pick the wrong 2 - if you want to know, ask - it's kinda farfetched but it's a bit uncanny with predictions ;)

12.) Clay - Friend of John; big with the media; also pre-merge according to my pattern.

11.) Tanya - CBS released conflicting reports shoving info down our throats when the first report was fine. It's my guess they saw the speculation that came out of that and panicked - making the wrong decision to add more info. I'm now almost sure this girl is not on the jury.

10.) Brian - Um....we're down 7-3 and he's the next biggest threat, plus he fits into my pattern. Jeff did recently say the Thailand Survivors were more about the game and didn't make many stupid mistakes, so I'm going for an all out Pagonging as in S1 this time.

9.) Helen - 3 days less than Zoe. Why is that important? I believe they're about the same build and since Zoe lost just about 25 pounds this should put Helen around that (although it was estimated at 35, I don't think the human eye can discern the difference between 25 and 35, really)

8.) Ted - After Helen because he lost a lot more weight. But the older and larger men do tend to lose weight quickly (ala Big Tom) so 27 days should be enough for the 40-50 pound loss....

7.) Erin - And so we begin the Suk Jai show, though from here on in I'm just going to be guessing my a$$ off. I just don't think Erin has it in her to win this thing. She seems to be there for the experience, she has a horrible astro sign which has given way to many a horrible player in the past (I can't believe I even put her this high ;) plus, having Jeff refer to you by name and give a big spoiler usually doesn't lead to you making the finals.

6.) Jed - Typical nice guy, with the best astro sign in the game....but from the sound of things the "nice one" didn't win in Thailand.

5.) Stephanie - Kind of an outsider to the rest of the kids, so I don't see her in the core group. She could also be perceived as a threat going into the finals.

4.) Robb - Kind of a putz. He really kind of annoys me and doesn't seem to fit the bad boy persona at all personality wise, but we'll see. I'm not sure about the final 4 because I don't really know how this would go down exactly.

3.) Penny - Not really a sweetheart, but more likable overall over Shii Ann so she gets tossed 3rd when Ken wins the challenge. I see her as a good player from watching her pre-show interviews and behaviour. She reminds me a lot of Kelly (the "snake" not the rat ;).

2.) Ken - Big musclebound jock wins the final IC and breaks up the Penny/Shii Ann coalition, taking Shii Ann to the finals because he figures she's far more unlikable. However, the jury is again, mostly female and as a whole recognizes the better player as the winner (though I doubt we'll be free from sore losers ;). OooOooOh the curse of the final immunity winner continues.

1.) Shii Ann - Now, if she manages to play it safe and play nicely on her Aquarian side while plotting and backstabbing people when they're not looking (ala Tina or more recently Danielle of BB3), she'll do fine. I REALLY hope she's more of a "to the camera" type b*tch (think Richard) or I'm going to be very very wrong with this one. She does, however, seem like one of the better players in the game (along with Penny) that I can see this early on.
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I know another 7-3 split may seem unlikely but I'm going to keep going with my pattern until it totally flops (which is probably this season lol) If I've calculated right, I know that Jan, Brian, John, and Clay are all pre-jury boots. Since I also think Tanya is pre-jury that makes 5/7 on the red tribe. Plus, I really don't see Ghandia doing too well and unless Brian or Tanya are the first boot, it's almost definetly going to be her (actually, it could be any one of eight people, but she's just most likely to me) and that makes 6/7. Ta-da! (clap clap clap ;)

It's also telling me that of Robb, Jed, Stephanie, Shii Ann, and Jake, two will make the final 4 (Just as last season it told me two of Gabe, Neleh, Paschal, Tammy, and John would make the final 4, but alas I picked the wrong two ^-^;;). Since I picked Shii Ann and Robb, it'll probably be Stephanie and Jed. AND since at least one of those five also has to be pre-jury, I picked Jake for the reasons stated above beside his name.

Also, with Jeff's comments stating this time it was more serious and since the players all saw (I'd hope) Marquesas, I don't see strength (Stephanie, Robb, Jed) going out early. The only change I could possibly make is trading Shii Ann for Jake but I'd really have to see more of both of them and how they fit into the group dynamic before I did that.

Jake's pre-show stuff isn't really impressing me....and yet more opinions: He seems like the type who would align with the men rather than the women and unfortunately he doesn't seem to have a similar personality to any of the men OR the women. He seems to think the best thing to do is get in there and press his opinions on people, but again a minute of clips doesn't really say much.

Sorry, I haven't had net access in a couple weeks really so I REALLY am anxious to spill opinions about the cast. I think I'll head on over to the spoiler board now ^-^

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Has anyone else noticed that I talk way too much?