LAST EDITED ON 03-15-01 AT 05:55 PM (EST)I'm incredibly suspicious of this "spoiler." First, it is associated with gatormeatisyummy, who did not prove to be a reliable source of good information last year despite a huge number of posts. Second, it goes against the logic of the game and the other spoilers. In another thread, one of our better posters (Krautboy) compares Ogakor to a pack of hyenas, with Colby as the alpha male. The alpha male will not be the first person voted out of the pack after the Kucha are gone. And, while it would be possible (and might even make sense) for the tribe to vote off Keith at the start of the final four, the image of Keith's face in the opening credits (discussed in CJ's photo proof thread this week) indicates to me that Keith stays to the end. Therefore, at this point I cannot visualize a 3 women-1 man Final Four.
This spoiler would already have died a natural death if not for gatormeatisyummy's association with it.
Edited for spelling, as always
Naah, we ain't seen nothin'.gatormeatisyummy has been pushing this spoiler, and ss.com ezboard has been loaded with discussion about it over the past week. It caught my attention for three reasons: the involvement of gatormeat, who pushed some of the least accurate spoilers and potential disinformation last season; the source, supposedly "Edina Lester"; and the fact that it had two independently-provable parts, one of which seemed pretty reasonable (Alicia and Rodger were the next two to go) and one of which seemed like a huge reach as we got more information (the last four were three women and a man). To be precise, it seemed to me like this last piece was made up to match the "Mad Dog 4" theory.
ss.com debated this reliability of this theory extensively in a huge waste of cyberspace.
God! I thought we killed this spoiler based on dates! This second flyover thing was said that they couldn't tell who they were, but did see three women and a man! How the hell can they not get close enough to see who they actually are, but close enough to see gender!! If they saw gender, they must be able to make some sort of comment on who it is. They wear the same clothes virtually every other day! What did the second "fly by" see, naked headless bodies? Damn, for all we know they saw crew members (again).But as you said Aya, Rodger is the next key. Now, looking at how Ogakor has been voting the past two weeks, they want the strength of Kucha. Colby is not going to switch to Kucha because he knows he's in third place at best right now and with an immunity in E14a, the final two. Keith is the same, except will he want Jerri out sooner than fifth? Tina didn't bite last week, why would she either? She's in third place for sure and you can see it in her eyes now. She knows.
That brings me to Jerri. Among other things, Jerri "will cause havoc." She also has a great opportunity in E9 to change the tide, if nothing else, to screw up the Ogakor trio. But, if she switches in E9, she prevents her own boot and can pick at the Ogakor trio to get assured of the final five just like she is now. But if she waits and makes it through E9, she has the final four locked up by switching in E10.
Immunity will have a minor effect on things in E10, and a big help if she wins it in E9. So Jerri should try to win E9 or sweat it out like Rich did in E9. (Wasn't this the same episode in S1 for this?) That's the one "spoiler" (issue) not being talked about. S1 versus S2's E9 and the "evil" escaping the boot.
With a pass in E9, Jerri ends up in the final four. Win an immunity at four people and you go to the final two almost assuredly (2-1 odds since it will again be a Rich & Rudy show).
Now, that potentially puts a three woman one man final four (R/A/J/E, or N/A/J/E). I know this supports the theory, but the ending could still be all Kucha, all Ogakor or a split. But, if Elisabeth is the Ogakor threat right now, and I beleive she is, the final four will be 2-2 men and women.