OK, time to try and break our losing streak...

For the umpteenth time this season, there are next to no spoilers to go on, and it's a real busy day for us today, so we'll make this quick:

The former KUCHA folks lose another member, ALICIA is our pick as the bootee, with NICK as the alternate choice.

Nick would seem to be a likely target at this point, but maybe Nick wins immunity or maybe he wins the reward challenge and decides to share it, and in doing so manages to buy enough Ogawhore goodwill to be able to stay off his ejection for another 3 days. For whatever reason, we're going with the popular vote and picking Alicia for this week.

For anyone thinking this is the Ogawhore defection week -- if the Ogawhore members are smart, there will be no defection this week. ...though an Ogawhore defection would make more sense this week than last, I still think it's too early for a Ogawhore to change sides. Unless something new develops this week within the internal Ogawhore dynamics (always a possibility with this group), I think they will last one more week -- but then WATCH OUT.

At first glance, logically, defecting last week would appear to have made have made more sense since it would have put the defector at an immediate 6-3 advantage. Defecting this week only puts the defector at an immediate 5-3 advantage. Last week it would have taken two folks breaking off from the Kucha pack to have caused them problems, with the post-defection advantage of a defection this week being a much riskier single vote advantage. But, to understand the advantage of a defection, you have to think about it from the defector's risk/reward point of view.

If a Ogawhore defected last week s/he'd only have been likely to make the Top 6 before Kucha turned back on him/her. However, if they defected now they'd likely get a Top 5 finish (and from there it's only two immunities to the Final Three where the last immunity winner choses who to bring with them into the Final Two) ...so while it DOES make more advantage to defect now, next week is an even better opportunity: Kucha will only have 3 memebers left, so an Ogakor defector in Week 9 gains an immediate 4-3 advantage and a virtual guarantee to finish in the Top 4 -- then needing to only win one immunity to make it to to the Final Three where the winner the final immunity choses who to bring with them into the Final Two. ...so it's a Top 4 finish versus the scenario where if they fail to defect and Ogawhore wipes out all then Kucha -- with only a guaranteed Top 5 finish (especially for someone who feels vulnerable and thinks they might be the first of the five Ogawhore to go when the internal cannibalization begins -- someone like Keith.)

If no Ogawhore defects in Week 9, then there is likely no reason to defect after that -- a Week 10 Ogawhore member defection to the two remaining Kucha would fail, with the remaing four Ogawhores voting out one of the two remaining Kucha and the defection failing. (anyone else think it's NOT a coincedence that it is between the airing of Week 8 and Week 9 that Burnett had chosen to air the "First 24 Days" Special??? ...what happens in Week 9 may very much determine the fate of the game.

(this does of course assume that the Ogawhore defectors number a single person -- if Jerri and Amber were to defect as a group, then they could plan a Week 10 defection to the two remaining Kucha that would leave a WIDE OPEN Final Six -- two Kucha, aligned in a fragile alliance with two former Ogakor (Jerri and Amber), and the two remaining Ogakor. Now that would make for a very potentially very interesting Week 11 episode... near endless possibilities, with the possible change of any of the six being the deciding difference.)

• Hooray!,AyatollahKhomeini, 09:14 PM, 03-14-01
  • RE: Hooray!,SurvivorBlows, 09:22 PM, 03-14-01
    • No defection from Jerri,AyatollahKhomeini, 09:41 PM, 03-14-01
      • RE: No defection from Jerri,castaway, 09:44 PM, 03-14-01
      • Jerri/Amber could go before Liz,IceCat, 10:06 PM, 03-14-01
        • RE: Jerri/Amber could go before Liz,George Tirebiter, 10:37 PM, 03-14-01
          • Colby stuck to the tribe,AyatollahKhomeini, 10:49 PM, 03-14-01
            • RE: Colby stuck to the tribe,George Tirebiter, 11:08 PM, 03-14-01
              • RE: Colby stuck to the tribe,Loree, 01:44 PM, 03-15-01
            • RE: Colby stuck to the tribe,Kokoro, 11:10 PM, 03-14-01
            • Second thoughts. . .,George Tirebiter, 02:53 PM, 03-15-01
              • RE: Second thoughts. . .,wendyp, 04:37 PM, 03-15-01
                • How silly is that?,George Tirebiter, 04:44 PM, 03-15-01
                • RE: Second thoughts. . .,SurvivinDawg, 05:20 PM, 03-15-01
                • RE: Second thoughts. . .,Loree, 10:27 AM, 03-16-01
        • Keeping Liz,AyatollahKhomeini, 10:41 PM, 03-14-01
          • RE: Keeping Liz,SurvivorBlows, 11:01 PM, 03-14-01
            • RE: Keeping Liz,Kokoro, 11:18 PM, 03-14-01
              • To Kokoro and SB,AyatollahKhomeini, 11:55 PM, 03-14-01
                • If the CJ dual morph theory is right...,IceCat, 00:01 AM, 03-15-01
                  • RE: If the CJ dual morph theory is right...,PepeLePew13, 00:43 AM, 03-15-01
      • RE: No defection from Jerri,SurvivorBlows, 10:57 PM, 03-14-01
        • "learn" might be too strong, but...,AyatollahKhomeini, 11:43 PM, 03-14-01
          • RE: "learn" might be too strong, but...,frogspit, 00:21 AM, 03-15-01
            • RE: "learn" might be too strong, but...,wendyp, 05:08 PM, 03-15-01
    • RE: Hooray!,ItzLisa, 01:48 PM, 03-15-01
  • RE:Hip Hip Hooray!,castaway, 09:25 PM, 03-14-01

One for the good guys. Way to go, SB!

Thanks, but if Jerri had gone, I think we'd have all been more than willing to be wrong this week

Week 9 will be interesting -- will they defect and won't they... and who will be the "they"???

...if Jerri approaches LizLiz, Rodger, and Nick about switching sides, anyone wonder if LizLiz will run to Tina/Keith, inform them of her intentions, and instead ask them to defect instead? ...or would she take what she could get and not take the chance that Keith/Tina confront Jerri about it and Ogakor re-solidifies? Questions, questions... and two weeks to speculate.

Colby doesn't want the Ogakor Five to break up. Nor should he -- there is no telling what Amber will do if Jerri is booted. But Colby has unquestionably explained the game's dynamics to Tina and Keith: if they boot Jerri now and then Amber defects, Ogakor goes from guaranteed victory to guaranteed elimination. Since we know (thanks, Jeff V.) that a Kucha doesn't win, I expect Ogakor to play this intelligently and vote off Kucha in a nice orderly fashion for now.

Does this mean we might already know who the final 3 could be? Tina/Keith/Colby?

Once it's down to the Oga 5 vs. Liz...

Keith/Colby/Tina could afford to eliminate Jerri and Amber and take Liz into the final four...

That's why I think it will be Nick, Roger, Jerri, Amber...

This assumes that Colby was telling the truth when he spoke to the camera about blading Jerri/Amber...

Now... wouldn't it be some amazing television if he was lying...

>This assumes that Colby was telling the truth when he spoke to the camera about blading Jerri/Amber...

Am I the only one who thought Colby looked odd after the vote? Could it be that he DID vote against Jerri, and was wondering who it was on the other tribe who negated that vote? that it only appeared as though the vote was along tribal lines?

(You'd think I'd know better than to take any of these people at their word. . .)

Sorry, GT, but Colby voted like a loyal Ogakor leader would -- for Alicia. So did Keith and Tina. These guys can smell the money. They all think they are the final three. Adding Rodger and Liz to the mix just messes up the math. Immunity must play a key role if Amber gets to be a finalist, as CJ thinks (and I now agree).

I'm going to steal Kokoro's tag line (slightly revised) from now on:

There's a crack in the alliance only if crack is a slang term for millionaire.

******
What was five is two, what was two is one, and what was one is nothing.

AK, I will accept your word if only because you were sweet enough to toss me a Firesign line. (You really didn't think he shot a suspicious look?)

Go on, give it a squeeze--many people like to!
GT

I don't think Colby looked surprised. I thought he looked rather sad. It seemed like he voted the way he had to but he wasn't thrilled about it. Jerri however looked smug and happy. But she does have the most votes now.

<<I'm going to steal Kokoro's tag line (slightly revised) from now on>>

Aw well, at least I still have my kitty....but really, I'm flattered ^-^

Plus I'm not completely sure about an Ogakor final....this ep totally gave away that plan; Of course there are still those people you will never convince that Liz didn't win.
~If~ the voting pattern keeps up, the next one gone will be the ever adored cute one, as Nick still has next to nothing in the way of face time and Rodger just really isn't threatening (plus he also has a lot less than Liz). I think this episode may have set her up for a fall.(It'll really depend on what the ep9 previews show)

Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire.

Kimmi! Get back here!

I woke up today to the realization that I never saw the part at the end where they show everyone voting (yes, I AM pathetic). . . Either I succumbed to a microsleep and missed it, or there's more than meets the eye to what happened. Do they just want us to think this vote was strictly down tribal lines? or was it, and they just want to mess with our minds?

(And if I'm mistaken about what I did not see, forgive my moronitude.)

Why DOES the porridge bird lay its egg in the air?
GT

The CBS site has who voted for who. It was straight down tibal lines. I think they focused on COlby becasue he is the determining factor in the show now. Plus I agree he voted the way he did for the game, but was not happy that he did it.

Did you notice when the Kuchas were hugging Alicia, that Colby stood up, I think he just shook her hand though. Good move on his part. One to show Alicia he was playing the game nothing personal and to show the other Kuchas what a good guy he is, in case it comes down to him and someone else.

Would you believe after (almost) two series, it never occurred to me to look at the official site? I guess once I came here, I felt no need to work so hard.

And yes, I think he's pretty smooth--maybe the best strategist there?

As Jeff was leaving after being voted out, he shook Colby's hand on the way out of the Tribal Council Area. By this time, these people have gotten to know one another pretty well, so it's no surprise.

Alicia mentioned in one of her interviews that Colby handed her her torch when she was leaving. She thought it was nice of him. She felt no hard feelings for being voted out.

Right you are, IceCat ... as long as Jerri would lose a tiebreak with all three of the TiCKs (Tina-Colby-Keith) if it turned out to be 3-3 (TiCks versus Jerri-Amber-Elisabeth) if Liz decided to double-cross them to get deeper into the game.

In other words, the TiCKs have to be sure that they'll have the majority after a Jerri boot. Right now Jerri is dependent in a Sean-like way on them. Remember the discussions by Gervase and Colleen about trying to form an alliance with Sean and Kelly against Dicquie-Rudy-Sooey? Remember how reluctant Sean was to get involved, because he was afraid it would hasten his demise? Well, that's Jerri's position as of now. She can't be sure that any "offer" of support from Kucha isn't a double-cross, and Colby won't save her if he thinks she's disloyal.

If Jerri continues to get all the Kucha votes, there wouldn't be a tiebreak, and Liz could stay around for an extra week or two, depending (of course) on immunity, making the Boston Herald report true. But I doubt it. Liz had bad instincts here, focusing on Keith and Tina (who will never defect from Colby) instead of Jerri and Amber (who might have done so). But, as Alicia said, she is naive!

I'm afraid that right now I expect that Colby will be loyal to Jerri until he has to make a choice between Jerri and Keith -- then it's bye bye Jerri! If Liz and Tina are friendly enough, it might happen in E11. That leaves the TiCKs, Liz and Amber. I think Liz will still go before Amber, despite Amber and Jerri's friendship. So, an all-Ogakor final four, with Amber only remaining alive if she wins immunity. How much more like Kelly could she be?

I don't know if the Keith into Richard means that Keith is the winner or just the other finalist. I'm sure I'll have more to say about this as time goes on.

>I don't know if the Keith
>into Richard means that Keith
>is the winner or just
>the other finalist. I'm
>sure I'll have more to
>say about this as time
>goes on.

OK, did I miss something else? ...what Keith into Richard thing?

<<OK, did I miss something else? ...what Keith into Richard thing?>>

^-^;; Only one of the biggest threads of the week

Here's the link:

http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/916.shtml

I really don't see it as clearly as some people think they do though....

Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire.

Kimmi! Get back here!

LAST EDITED ON 03-14-01 AT 11:57 PM (EST)

Kokoro, I wasn't really planning to steal your line -- you deserve full credit for it. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

And, SB, perhaps we should post a speculative link on the front page this week to CJ's theory as it has developed, before ss.com tries to pass it off as their own...

Kokoro, I've thought that the top picture looked sort of like the second picture and the fourth picture looked sort of like the third picture all the time that CJ has been posting them. But they didn't look enough alike to conclude that they are the same. However, the first and last pictures DO look like morphed pictures. I've seen people suggest before that the last picture was Rich, but it really isn't him either. But Rich and Keith combined, yeah, that's the ticket. In the first picture, the long face is a tipoff that something is weird -- only Kelly has had a really long face.

Plus, it seems in character for MB to morph last year's final two with this year's final two as a clue in plain sight {with our technology) -- and then to gloat about it when no one IDed it (until now).

I just can't help thinking how absolutely schweeeeet it would be if CJ was right...

MB hoisted on the pitard of his own arrogance... his tragic flaw!

Shakespeare would be proud...

Do you think MB would risk having the final two (as per CJ's morph theory) be that obvious? Surely he knows there are lots of Internet sleuths who are quite technologically capable with images.

> Since we know (thanks,
>Jeff V.) that a Kucha
>doesn't win, I expect Ogakor
>to play this intelligently and
>vote off Kucha in a
>nice orderly fashion for now.
>

Huh -- we'd we learn this???

SB, I don't know that it really rises to the level of us "LEARNING" that a Kucha doesn't win, but that's the feeling I got from this quote of Jeff's on Rosie O.D.: "Mike fell into the fire and ruined it for all of us." He was talking about how Kucha had the game positioned to go into the merge with a numerical edge. Yes, I know there are lots of other ways that the "ruined it for all of us" can be interpreted, but I think Occam's Razor (which the ss ezboard is debating tonight) holds here: the simplest interpretation is the right one: all the Kucha leave the island before the winner.

Since I believe Play2Survive's lockbox story, the only way Jeff could be sure that Mike's injury ruined it for all of Kucha is that there wasn't a Kucha member in the final two. By the way, if the lockbox is right, that makes the "code spoiler" a very clever misdirection -- since we could conclude that the final chat with the last two survivors won't have been recorded yet (though everyone may know who won already -- I can just visualize Jerri going after Keith...).

After watching tonight's episode it's becoming clear to me that Jerri isn't going to defect (she's hated by all 'cept Amber). If she feels vulnerable I suspect Colby, Keith and Tina are going to persuade her that they NEED her... and they do. C,K,T all know that they'd rather be up against her in the Final Two and are going to give her that vibe. C,K,T are playing the game very well and know exactly what they are doing. Jerri is out in the fog as to how to play the end game. And Amber is utterly clueless. The Ogawhores are going to vote right along tribal lines and take out the remaining Kuchas. It is actually AMBER that is sitting in that FIFTH slot... she's just too clueless to realize it. Once all the Kuchas are gone and it's down to the final five, I suspect it will be AMBER that is booted first, lest she may go all the way (ala Kelly)... and NONE of the Ogawhores want Amber in the Final Two, including Jerri. I now think the Black Widow theory is a load, unless ya count when Jerri backstabs Amber in TC#12 Course, I could be wrong, so just for fun:

Final Four - Jerri, Amber, Elisabeth, Nick (yeah, sure

Did any of you cathc Jeff's slip talking to Richard Hatch on ET last night? He said he would see Alicia soon, OOPS. Plus a friend said (I did not see it) that on Letterman, Letterman asked if they were nervous about coming on to the show and Jeff said Lis was because she has a crush on you. But then got really read faced like he slipped. Could it mean Lis is next?? Or just soon?

>Thanks, but if Jerri had gone, I think we'd have all been more than willing to be wrong this week

*** Oh, just a teense, Webby!!! So far, I was right in my picks with Kimmi and Alicia's ouster. I felt so pleased about being right on Kimmi, and ready to smack my head against the wall for being right on Alicia! GONE!!! Be gone, ye skank ho!

**************************************
What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about???

That may be true in here & CONGRATS all you internet sleuths on a job VERY well done! But those good folks at Jerrimundi have to put up with that wicked witch for God knows how many more weeks now...