Thanks for showing these, FP. I have a question though: Is the line: "you can have all the plans you want...Survivor Gods don't care" really sandwiched between images of Ben and Ali?

That line makes me think the boot could be someone that was in a great place before the swap but is now suddenly voted out and that could be Ben or Ali. The line would suit them better than Joe and Alan.

Yes, the video is posted above, when he says "You can have all the plans you want" you see Ben then Ali on the screen, then you see him and he says, "Survivor gods don't care".

Yes, that is exactly what the implication is.

I was also thinking that the shocking tribal council could refer to a majority in a tribe voting one of their own out.

Ex. If three blues are together and two of them decide to vote Alan out, and get the others to go along. That would be "shocking". Or, if there are 3 heals on a tribe and they decide to vote one of their own off....something like that.

Clearly, you would think the majority tribe color in the new tribe would prevail. One in the majority would definitely be blindsided....

Thank you for the clarification; I had to ask because those videos aren't available in Canada.

While Alan and Joe are clearly in danger, Ben and Ali have to be considered as boot candidates.

Survivor - I Don't Like Having Snakes Around (Sneak Peek)
SurvivorOnCBS
Published on Oct 16, 2017
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dx4f_M2N95U

Tribes drop their buffs and switch things up, and one castaway rubs their new tribe the wrong way right before an explosive tribal council, on Survivor, Wednesday, Oct. 18 at 8/7c. Only CBS

As I mentioned before Jeff is definitely using the basket in his Left Hand for the Women and the basket in his Right Hand for the men.

Since an entire tribe picks first this has some effect on the odds of which tribe you end up on. In this case we see that Red (with 2 Men and 2 Women) picks first then Yellow (with 3 Men and 3 Woman), and then Blue (with 3 Men and 2 Women)

Let's call the new Tribes A/B/C

Tribe A: 3 Men and 2 Women
Tribe B: 3 Men and 2 Women
Tribe C: 2 Men and 3 Women

ASSUMING production divides up the buffs evenly the baskets should contain:

2xA, 2xB, 3xC Buffs for the Women in the Left Basket
3xA, 3xB, 2xC Buffs for the Men in the Right Basket

Jeff goes to the Red Hustler tribe first and hands the Left basket to Lauren first. Odds for Lauren are:

2/7(28.6%) A
2/7(28.6%) B
3/7(42.9%) C

Those are pretty good odds that Lauren draws Tribe C buff (the tribe with 3 women)

When the first Man on Red draws (e.g. Ryan) the odds will be
3/8(37.5%) A
3/8(37.5%) B
2/8(25.0%) C
Most likely Ryan will draw A or B and not C so most likely won't be with Lauren on C who most likely drew C.

When the next Man (e.g. Devon) draws on Red the odds will be:
3/7(42.9%) A or B whichever Ryan did not draw
2/7(28.6%) A or B same as Ryan drew
2/7(28.6%) C
Most likely Devon won't be on the same tribe as Ryan nor Lauren

Since there will most likely be 2xA, 2xB, and 2xC buffs left for the men after Red draws then most likely the 3 men on Yellow and 3 men on Blue would most likely be divided evenly among Tribes A, B, or C.

When Ali draws there will most likely be 2xA, 2xB, and 2xC buffs left in the basket and left on the original tribes would be 1 Woman on Red, 3 Women on Yellow, and 2 Women on Blue.

Most likely the 3 Women on Yellow would get split evenly among A/B/C.

That would mean
A: 1 Man from Red/Yellow/Blue + 1 Woman from Yellow
B: 1 Man from Red/Yellow/Blue + 1 Woman from Yellow
C: 1 Man from Yellow/Blue + 1 Woman from Yellow + 1 Woman from Red (Lauren)

Leaving the 1 Woman on Red (Ali) and the 2 Women on Blue (Ashley and Chrissy) to be divided up evenly between tribes A/B/C.

The pick of those women will probably determine which original tribes have the majority number in each tribe. Ali's pick could be very important on how the tribes get divided.

Of course odds don't determine outcome and this could be all far off from what happens but interesting to think about especially that Lauren will most likely end up on the only tribe with 3 women.

2/7(28.6%) A
2/7(28.6%) B
3/7(42.9%) C

Those are pretty good odds that Lauren draws Tribe C buff (the tribe with 3 women)"

Actually, the odds are better (57.1%) that Lauren DOESN'T wind up on C, the tribe with 3 women.

The odds of NOT C = The Odds of A OR B

Yes if you draw multiple samples like 7 without replacement the odds would be 2 A buffs, 2 B Buffs, and 3 C Buffs. So over 7 draws you will have drawn 4 buffs that are NOT C but on any single draw you are most likely to draw a C buff.

On any single draw your odds are 2/7 A, 2/7 B, and 3/7 C so if you are betting on one single outcome the best best is C. Certainly if you are allowed to bet on A or B (i.e. NOT C) that is the better bet but we are talking about the most likely color to buff to draw with one pick and that is C.

If we increased C to 5 then it would be 2/9 A, 2/9 B, and 5/9 C and then not only would C be the most likely color you draw but it would also be more likely than A OR B put together.

Behind-the-Scenes Challenge Preview of "The Color and the Shape"
Published on Oct 17, 2017
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0RSoeMe_nw

Challenge Producer John Kirhoffer takes us behind-the-scenes of the challenge "The Color and the Shape" featured on SURVIVOR: Heroes v. Healers v. Hustlers, Wednesday, October 18 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television

LAST EDITED ON 10-20-17 AT 07:26 AM (EST)

I just have to say that our boot, Alan, was ALL over the promos. He was focused when in group shots, and he was sandwiched in, (CTGirl Theory)....just don't want to throw those old theories out the window quite yet!