LAST EDITED ON 03-18-17 AT 03:40 PM (EST)

Really late to this party and for the double header I am getting the confessionals from the editing thread. I was late to watch that night, and no time to pain stakingly go through. Hope you understand! I am calling the show up to the first boot, 1a, then the second boot episode will be 1b.

        episode | I | 1a| total
Tony      Mana  | 1 | 2 | 3
Malcolm   Mana  | 1 | 2 | 3
Sandra    Mana  | 1 | 2 | 3
Cirie     Nuku  | 1 | 2 | 3
Brad      Nuku  | 1 | 1 | 2
Michaela  Mana  | * | 2 | 2
Ciera     Mana  | * | 2 | 2X
Debbie    Nuku  | 1 | * | 1
Andrea    Nuku  | * | 1 | 1
Hali      Mana  | * | 1 | 1
Caleb     Mana  | * | 1 | 1
Zeke      Nuku  | * | 1 | 1
Sarah     Nuku  | * | 1 | 1
Sierra    Nuku  | * | 1 | 1
Ozzy      Nuku  | * | 1 | 1
Troyzan   Mana  | * | 1 | 1
Tai       Nuku  | * | 1 | 1
Varner    Mana  | * | 1 | 1
Aubry     Mana  | * | 1 | 1 
JT        Nuku  | * | * | *

Things to note. In the intro, which counts as the footage prior to the intro credits/theme song, we had 6 confessionals. In order, they were Tony, Malcolm, Sandra, Cirie, Debbie and Brad. However, the opening segment continued on after the intro, and jiffy questioned some and we heard from Ozzy, JT, Cirie, and Zeke.

Tony, Malcolm, Sandra, and Cirie had the most confessionals of the episode with 3. They ALL had an intro confessional. Tony talked about his prior game and just when you think you have seen it all, you haven't, and when he escaped to look for idols and no one followed him, so he decided to indeed look for idols. He then noted that everyone else was just talking while he was working. Same Tony, different game. Malcolm noted that he was a big move maker prior, but this season he didn't want to pull a "Tony" and thought he should get a foothold with alliances. Thank he notes that everyone is throwing out Tony and Caleb as targets, but he wants the person that is throwing those names out, Cierra. Sandra talks about winning the game twice and that it wasn't just luck, she's the queen, doing what she knows how to do. Then she notices that everyone is gunning for Tony, but they need strength, and they need him. She got the last confessional before TC, talking about how Michaela reacted when she found out she was the boot decoy, pouting etc, so if we need to take her out, we can and take Cierra out any time. Cirie's first confessional was about her, a bonafide couch potato, made it to the end, but the only thing left to do was to win. She then comments on Ozzy and how she didn't start the blindside with him; it was 8 years ago, maybe everyone can remain calm. Last confessional was about the war was going to start anyway, what difference would it be if it was today or tonight, there would be blood!

Brad had an intro confessional: to win this game you have to go big or go home. Then, his prior season was so difficult, Monica on one side, and then he was so aggressive on the other side, but this time, he's letting everyone come to him, and he says, WWMD, What would Monica do? She'd be slow playing this now, he's got a long way to go but he's off to a good start.

Michaela had no intro confessionals, but 2 post intro confessionals: This time around she wants to bite her tongue, but she can't hide her facial expressions. It's very difficult to lie. Then, Ciera's name came up as boot, and she's great with that, that is who she wanted...

Ciera also had 2 confessionals in her boot episode. No intro ones, however. First conf: I've played with winners before and she thinks they give her an advantage. Next, in the kiss of death spot post losing IC challenge, she let everyone down.

Debbie had one intro confessional: Anybody who watched Survivor Kaoh Rong that I got strength like a gymnast and tenacity like a giant squid. When I come into this game it’s to go for broke. This is the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont Stakes (Michael seen, then Caleb and Ciera) all at once so you better go for it.

Andrea had first confessional after the opening segment: It’s survivor game changers so you can’t just sit around and hope to make it to the end. The stakes have been raised. This is going to be an epic season, so, GAME on!

Hali had one confessional post intro, dejavu when she saw the tribe flag, everyone else is like a snake in the grass but she's a cobra, you won't know what hit you.

Caleb: I like Tony; he’s got high spirits. Day one, paranoia, stirring up trouble all I can say is that’s just Tony for you. You wouldn’t expect anything less but he’s got a big target on his back.

Zeke: His confessional is all about how he's out there with the greats, Cirie, Ozzy, JT, but he deserves to be there too, he wants to lather himself with the blood of his enemies...

Sarah comments on her own game: I have a phenomenal social game. I’m a police officer so I can read people and with a season called “game changers”, I feel like somebody will get anxious(Zeke Shown) and feel as if they need to make a move which will put a target on their back and then I got to be the silent assassin!

Sierra comments on finding the legacy idol clue, giving her a chance to do something big with her game this time, but she's already a strong competitor, her comfort is hanging out with the guys so she wants to keep them close.

Ozzy: I think my competition is fierce. In Survivor, big moves always require big risks. A lot of times they are not successful but if you don’t make them your chance of winning the game are very small. Cirie and I played together in Fan vs Favs and Cirie helped to get me out. I’m not sure if I can trust her. So, this time around, as a game changer, I need to be the master of blindsides and if we lose an immunity challenge, it’s going to be Cirie that is going to go. Ozzy sets up a rivalry between he and Cirie. Will this be their only story, get the other out?

Troyzan: He comments on Tony, the biggest threat there. He caught him already trying to dig up the idol, he didn't confront him, but he's got a guilty face, but he's got to be careful with a guy like that.

Tai: Tells us about the bad history between Ozzy and Cirie. Ozzy and JT keep bringing Cirie's name up, they have a history, but he likes Cirie so doesn't want to get caught in something where Cirie has to go.

Varner: He's used to losing and going to TC first, no one wants to go. He wants to keep the tribe strong and vote out Cierra, who voted out her mother, she's flip-flopped, she's forced ties, she's slick.

Aubry: Notes Michaela's hot streak, and if you ignite it, she'll burn the whole place down.

Not going to comment too much. A lot of intro, game setting comments, assessments of each other. Tony came out in a "Tony" kind of way and most valued him as a shield for themselves, and as a strong competitor in challenges, while Cierra was slick, someone that was a game changer that voted out her mother, and forced ties. Also, noted that Micahela has a temper. While on Nuku, it seems to be mostly about the Ozzy vs. Cirie rivalry, Sierra has the legacy advantage, Sarah's got a great social game, Brad's going to play like Monica, etc. In the end, they went with the queen and voted out Cierra, the slick one.

Special significance aka pay attention to the intro confessionals...I'd say most at risk were the ones with 3 confessionals, and JT, with none. And, as we find out, it was one with 3 confessionals.

• Part 2 of first Episode, (Ep 2) Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 03:38 PM, 03-18-17
• Episode 2 Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 04:57 PM, 03-18-17
  • RE: Episode 2 Confessionals,Sheldor, 12:47 PM, 03-19-17
    • RE: Episode 2 Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 08:32 AM, 03-20-17
      • RE: Episode 2 Confessionals,Survivorfan1984, 05:05 PM, 03-21-17
• Episode 3 Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 09:00 AM, 03-26-17
• Episode 4 Confessionals: ,Flowerpower1, 08:36 AM, 04-02-17
  • RE: Episode 4 Confessionals: ,Sheldor, 01:36 AM, 04-04-17
• Episode 5 confessionals:,Flowerpower1, 09:40 AM, 04-16-17
• Episode 6 Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 08:13 AM, 04-17-17
  • RE: Episode 6 Confessionals,Sheldor, 02:31 PM, 04-17-17
    • RE: Episode 6 Confessionals,michel2, 07:50 PM, 04-17-17
      • RE: Episode 6 Confessionals,Sheldor, 05:57 PM, 04-18-17
        • RE: Episode 6 Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 02:32 PM, 04-19-17
• Episode 7 Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 07:33 AM, 04-30-17
• Episode 7B confessionals,Flowerpower1, 07:39 AM, 04-30-17
• Episode 8 confessionals,Flowerpower1, 07:47 AM, 04-30-17
  • RE: Episode 8 confessionals,Sheldor, 06:51 PM, 04-30-17
    • RE: Episode 8 confessionals,Flowerpower1, 07:53 AM, 05-02-17
  • RE: Episode 8 confessionals,michel2, 07:21 PM, 05-02-17
    • RE: Episode 8 confessionals,Flowerpower1, 07:55 AM, 05-03-17
• Episode 9 Confessionals,Flowerpower1, 07:30 AM, 05-08-17
• Episode 10 Confessionals....,Flowerpower1, 08:10 AM, 05-16-17
  • RE: Episode 10 Confessionals....,michel2, 10:21 AM, 05-16-17
• Episode 11 A & B,Flowerpower1, 07:00 PM, 05-19-17

LAST EDITED ON 03-18-17 AT 03:39 PM (EST)

        episode | I | 1a| 1b |total
Tony      Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X
Sandra    Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8
Malcolm   Mana  | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5
Curie     Nuku  | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4
Michaela  Mana  | * | 2 | 2 | 4
Caleb     Mana  | * | 1 | 3 | 4
Varner    Mana  | * | 1 | 2 | 3
Debbie    Nuku  | 1 | * | 2 | 3
Brad      Nuku  | 1 | 1 | * | 2
Zeke      Nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | 2
Sarah     Nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | 2
Tai       Nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | 2
Aubry     Mana  | * | 1 | 1 | 2
Andrea    Nuku  | * | 1 | * | 1
Hali      Mana  | * | 1 | * | 1
Sierra    Nuku  | * | 1 | * | 1
Ozzy      Nuku  | * | 1 | * | 1
Troyzan   Mana  | * | 1 | * | 1
JT        Nuku  | * | * | 1 | 1

Ciera Mana | * | 2 | 2X

This episode seemed to come down between the king vs. the queen, and their confessionals supported it. They were the stars of the show and they both had 5 confessionals. Tony came out of the gate hard, he was bored and wanted some action. He explained that he wanted to keep other strong threats around himself, to shield him. While he was staying up late to make his new spy bunker he was upset to see Sandra et al up and about. He knew that Sandra was plotting against him and he didn't like weasels. He knew he would be losing to sandra if he let go of Aubry, but he wanted to make a big move against Sandra.

Sandra notes that she wants to work with the other winners, as long as their interests line up, there is no telling how much damage they could do. Then, if Tony wants to look her in the eyes like the fuzz, she's done with that, there is no telling what he'd do for a million dollars, he needs to go. She's done, Tony cannot be trusted, he's only the king until the queen arrives, and she is here. She's a natural, doesn't have to put too much effort into this, I'm still the queen and Tony has to go. She feels that she has the numbers, Tony is crazy acting like he's the king, unfortunately, he's good at finding idols, he can't be trusted, so they will have to split the votes. Tony's been eating away at Caleb's brain, that's why he has to go. It may go south, but just because he won once, does't make him the king, I have the track record and we will put it into perspective tonight when he goes home.

Caleb had a big jump up to 3 confessionals: With Sandra and Tony, I don’t think you can trust either one of them but right now, I feel I can trust Tony more than I can trust Sandra because he’s got a big target on his back and I feel the same way, so we got to try and keep each other safe. Playing with Tony is dangerous but for challenges, we got to keep the tribe strong. It might be a blood bath later but, for now, we got to win. Then, Tony is right, Sandra has convinced everybody that Tony should go and now they are trying to get me to be a part of it but I don’t want to do that because when it comes to strong people, when you get rid of one, it exposes the others. You send Tony home, it exposes me and Malcolm. But looking at numbers on who will vote out Sandra, we’ve only got four so we need one more person. And, finally, his last confessional is that Tony said, let's flip Michaela, and it might work because she hates to lose, so maybe she will be down with voting out the weakest link.

Malcolm, Varner, Michaela, and Debbie all had 2 confessionals. Malcolm: He agrees that he needs stronger targets around to shield himself...You can’t let Sandra get an army, mobilize her forces and have them at her beck and call whenever she wants them because that’s how she won the game twice. As far as allies go, Tony is not my first choice but he is somebody I think I can work with. Not because I can trust him. I don’t trust him any further than I can throw his big bald body, but it benefits me to have the strong players there as long as possible. I need camouflage and the more targets around the better. Next one was that he cannot win Game Changers with losing challenges, so he needs to keep the strong players around.

Michaela: The challenge today was deplorable. It was so frustrating because I am a strong player. That’s the only reason that I’m here. So, to be standing there, doing nothing, while weaker players lose it again pissed me off but other people are making decisions for the group so I guess I just got to sit here and deal with it Then, People who know me, knows that “Lose” is not in my every day vernacular so to come out here and do it time and time again when it doesn’t have to happen, it doesn’t make sense. I know that Tony’s a threat but he can help us win challenges but Sandra is useless in just about everything.

Varner: His confessionals are narrational: Sandra put together an A of 5 in just 15 minutes. I mean, that’s scary! Sandra knows what she’s doing. She’s won this game twice for a reason. When 2 winners of S go after each other for another million dollars, it gets ugly fast and I love it! I can’t wait to see the fireworks. Then, I’m in heaven! Having two winners going after each other is Christmas and the best part of it is we get to decide which one is going home.

Debbie: Talks about how Tai and the chickens have a history together that is sketchy. Don't get too attached to them because they will start looking like Angus Cattle. Then, she doesn't trust Cirie. I don’t full trust Cirie because she’s feeding me what she thinks is counter-intelligence: Hey Debbie, I’m doing you a favor, pal! I’m coming to you and telling you they are trying to get you out. I assessed it, I don’t buy it. I don’t know if Cirie understands what kind of training I’ve been through. I am a captain in the civil air patrol. Although I don’t get paid in dollars, I get paid in military training so it’s going to take a lot to outwit me. All you have at the end of the day as far as who to trust is your instinct and your internal radar, your BS detector and mine says Cirie would be on the chopping block if we lost and she’s looking for an opening. I admire it but my BS detector was going: Han, Han, Han! With what she was telling me.

Aubry, Tai, JT, Cirie, Sarah and Zeke all had one confessional. Aubry: She, Malcolm, Caleb feel the same way about Tony...I talked to Tony this AM. He’s a threat in the game and so am I and I want to play with people who are threats because I think it’s the best thing for me right now.
Tai: I'm the chicken guy, my responsibility to keep them alive, it's a burden, but one I don't mind doing. Same game. Doesn't bode well.
JT: Tai and myself, we both love the animals, no doubt about it. I’m a country boy from Alabama but I’m looking out for me and Tai seems to be looking out for the chickens! I think the chickens, inevitably, are going to hurt Tai. In this level of competiton and in this game, everything you do is critiqued; everything can be a reason for someone to get rid of you. He’s got to decide what he is here to do: Win a million dollars or marry these chickens?
Cirie: I know Ozzy is coming for me and I see that Ozzy and JT seem super tight which is not good for me. My whole life right now is hanging by a string in this game. I think they think Cirie the legend, Jedi mind trick puppet master is trying to get me. That might be so, but just not right now! Hahah! So, I have to try and weed out who I can play with and who I can’t. I have to get in with somebody. I can’t play by myself. Cirie is still finding her place. Just as she had to find it in the first game she played so well.
Sarah: I told Cirie I’m good with her but if someone is going to throw her name out I’m going to go with it. Last time I played like a cop; look where it got me. This time, I ‘m playing like a criminal and we’ll see where it gets me. My word is not my bond in this game this time.

I loved this confessional from Sarah. It shows growth. Last time didn't work for her, so now she's changing it up! Gives me hope for her because last time she was gullible and was played! Let's see if she learned from the master.

Zeke: Cire is a masterful player. She has like this mystical quality that draws you in. I wanted nothing more than to work with Cirie but as gaga as I am to be playing with her, Cirie is arguably the most dangerous player so my gut tells me that it’s too early in the game to align with someone who everyone is gunning for. Astute and wise. But, like Cirie, he's got to align with some one and find his place. Early birds do catch the worms.

Many were under the radar in the second half of the premiere: Brad, Andrea, Sierra, Hali, Ozzy, and Troyzan. Doesn't bode too well for the men, I might add; but may not be as significant for the ladies. We all know they edit women winners differently.

From the confessionals, we see that the the war between the king and queen did come to a head, and one with the most confessionals gets the boot. Tony. We also see that Caleb, had the largest spike along with Sandra and Tony. And, we know that this proceeds his boot episode next week. So far so good with confessionals! Despite the fact that he was not seen in ANY of the promos, he was a risk via confessionals!

LAST EDITED ON 03-18-17 AT 04:59 PM (EST)

             episode | I | 1a| 1b| 2 |total
Sandra    Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10
Malcolm   Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8
Varner    Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6
Caleb     Mana-mana  | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6X
Cirie     Nuku-tavu  | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5
Michaela  Mana-nuku  | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5
Debbie    Nuku-mana  | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 5
Brad      Nuku-mana  | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 5
JT        Nuku-nuku  | * | * | 1 | 4 | 5
Tai       Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4
Troyzan   Mana-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 3 | 4
Ozzy      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 3
Hali      Mana-mana  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 3
Zeke      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3
Sarah     Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2
Aubry     Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2
Andrea    Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 2
Sierra    Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 2

Ciera          Mana  | * | 2 | 2X
Tony           Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X

This week the largest amount of confessionals was also the greatest jump up, from 1 last week to 4 this week = JT. As the lone man that wasn't on his switched tribe his confessionals revolved around trying to come up with a plan to isolate the rest of his tribe so he could search for the idol, then when that failed, suggesting they catch a goat that he could kill to please the queen, Sandra, who was apparently the only one willing to actually eat one. I felt a lot of this episode was narrated by JT.

Survivor gods really let him down, 5:1, odd man out. Sitting duck so has to stir things up, isolate them in the ocean, then swim back to look for idol. Frantically looking, can't find it, his job is to keep looking, that's all he can do. Sandra has mentioned so many times she wants a goat, he doesn't want to catch one, but thinks he could avoid being booted if he pleases her. He didn't expect to catch the goat this quick, he's not a beast, no way he's killing a momma and baby goat, let's see if we can catch another random goat, not a momma or a baby, and let these go. JT is trying to come up with any way to save his hide.

Malcolm, Varner, Troyzan, and Brad had 3 confessionals, all significant.

Malcolm's confessionals are narrational. First about the new camp...We walk into this nuku camp, after spending 6 or 7 days at Mana and we didn’t get the chickens and we didn’t get the tool kit or the boat. It’s shocking, I couldn’t pick my jaw up off the floor...it’s like the Survivor jackpot, everything is already built, they got a bunch of food they didn’t take with them, chickens are walking around free like they run the place. They’ve got this awesome shelter and they’ve decorated it. Look how well it’s been going on in this tribe, they’ve taken the time to decorate it, like it’s like we are at some dinner party in Mexico. Next, about the goat situation: catching a goat was never on my bucket list. We pick it up and start heading back to camp, and realize immediately that the only reason we got it was because it was a momma goat and it didn’t want to run away from it’s baby. So, we don’t really have a choice, we won’t kill them because we have a conscience...but I have to be very careful of what I say to Sandra because Sandra desperately wants to eat the goat. And, in a game like Survivor there is no need to make enemies or cause angst in this camp. Then the last one continues to tell about the goat adventure....You can tell who’s for it and who’s against it. Sandra, she doesn’t give a damn, which I think is her M.O. about life, I’m starting to realize. But, everybody else starts talking it through and no one wants to be the survivor that abandoned a baby goat, motherless goat to the wild. This is an easy decision because we have a heart we are not gonna kill either of the goats so we ended up letting the goats go. That initial adrenaline and mouth watering slows down a lot when you actually start thinking about abandoning a little baby goat. So, it made sense in our hearts to let it go and it’s going to be much better for this tribe moving forward.

Varner first tells us that in game changers the game changes fast and he's loving it and ready to go! Then, he narrates about being stranded on the raft while JT searches for the idol...We set out there on that raft waiting for a long time, waiting on JT, It’s like it doesn’t take that long, I thought what is he doing? I thought to myself, he’s looking for an idol. What a great way to get rid of the 5 people that might take you down. Brilliant! His final confessional: If JT is out looking for an idol, good for JT. It just doesn’t matter, we have the majority 5:1, so JT is screwed. I have to agree, JT could be screwed.

Troyzan's confessionals boded well for him. He was perceptive enough to know he was screwed, and first talks about Andrea, and then that his only hope is to find the HII...Andrea, comeon, she acts like she’s my little buddy, but come on man, I know she’s playing a game, she’s not as clever as I think she thinks she is. Come on, I’m 54 years old, I’m the oldest guy out here, and you know, my intuition is good. And, I feel like I learned so much from one world and you kow I found an idol when I had to and I won an immunity when I had to and it changed the game so this time I will not let anystone be unturned. I’m gonna at least start to look for the idol. Teary: I thought I lost my life for a second there, Thank God! Reads clue, so at the next IC, it’s just gonna be crazy for me. It’s gonna be super tough, Winning a super difficult game changing challeange plus I have to find the hidden immunity idol in front of everybody. But, If I can do it, it’s like a complete 180. Troyzan’s back....I think, fingers crossed.
This is stellar. A repeating theme of Survivor. You NEVER give up. The one who digs the deepest will prevail. And, Troyzan exemplifies this in this scene.

The next part of his confessionals, he has to execute the plan to retrieve the HII at the challenge. This idol being hidden under a table makes me way nervous because I am in charge on untying knots, so I have to wait till the end of the challenge in order to nab it. Then, Finding an idol again....I did it. And it changes everything, it’s life for me, it gives you the feeling of power and power is huge in this game. His fortune will spell misfortune for someone else in his tribe, and I can't help but think it could be Andrea, the one that tries to dupe him at the start, perhaps?

Brad also had 3 confessionals and it looks like Brad Culpepper is going to be the strategic player at nuMana! Wonders never cease! He is the first one to spell it out...This is my new home so let me make this house a home. I love to go antiquing, I like to decorate. Monica and I spend a lot of time re-decorating our own house...I kind of relax while I am doing that. We’re here, meager supplies, meager food, unbelievable game, difficult (see Caleb and Hali), But, I’m having a lot of fun, cause I’m thinking 4:2. I’m in good shape. The four of us Noku are going to stay together. And, it’s going to come down to either Hali or Caleb. He tells us that he wouldn't mind getting rid of Caleb first! He knows that Tai, Caleb, and Debbie all played together, and that is the threat, but he's already decided to bring Tai and Debbie to be closest to HIM! No place for Caleb. He tells us his plan, his rationale, then we see him execute it. But first, Maybe getting rid of Hali would be a better choice but Caleb, Debbie and Tai absolutely have a relationship and if they wanted to team up I am sure that they would send me home first. But, right now I don’t want to be the chief so I would like Tai to make the decision. He executes it to perfection. Brad, takes a big step forward in game changers.

Sandra, Caleb, Debbie, Tai, Ozzy, and Hali all had 2 confessionals.

Sandra: I was leading the sheep to slaughter, now a swap, hope I'm on the strong side of the numbers. Then, all about not seeing anything wrong with killing the goats, that they are there for human consumption, but got to ask the group...Some people have called Sandra a goat, so if she kills herself, will she be out of this season? Food for thought. BAAAAA

Caleb was the boot, and had his 2 cents worth, first about how he's happy that he and his friend Tai are back together, they had a really good friendship. Next after the challenge loss he's down, it's the same day he went out last time, foreshadowing, and he wonders if this tribe will value strength. Poor Caleb, never really got to play the game. His strength and tenacity in challenges will indeed be felt, I think. Tai, looks like he's playing the exact same game, monkey in the middle.

Debbie: After they lose the challenge, she feels they will have a brief negotiation, about either Caleb or Hali, but believes they will stick together. The next confessional: She has Tai and Caleb from Koah Rong, that she could potentially work with, but one thing she's learned is that relationships absolutely do matter and you are a fool to discount them.

Tai: mulls over the conundrum: the plan is to vote off Hali and Caleb, and I know I cross the line because I told caleb, but I do want to play with caleb, we had a relationship before a pretty good relationship. this is exactly what happened last time, I put in position to betray my friend. But If I protect my buddy I have to betray brad, but either way it’s gonna hurt.... Then, the final confessional of the night: Brad gave me such valuable advice. It makes sense. Last time I played with my heart, but this season, it’s game changers, I got to think clear. If we get rid of Caleb it’s very difficult because I am friends with Caleb. We played together before, we had some great time. And, it’s very very difficult for me to say I would write his name down. Because it’s such a betrayal to our friendship. Can I do it? My heart says, you my friend, the problem is we live with it. We live in this moment over and over again.,So tonight I really have to think with my brain, who is a better person to take out, Hali or Caleb?

The only one I see this move helping is Brad. Brad played Tai like a fiddle and sent Tai's closest alliance mate in the game home, someone that was a much greater target then himself. Tai is a pawn. How is sending Caleb over Hali going to help Tai? What about Debbie? How will she help Tai moving forward? ugh.

Hali also had 2 confessionals as the boot decoy...but it wasn't about her saving her self through her own efforts. She first notes that they have to play it like one big happy family after the swap, but she and Caleb are in trouble...but with Caleb and Tai being friends, hopefully she's not the biggest target, see a snake! Then, the worst happened, they lost, she needs a miracle, and Caleb is a power house.

Ozzy also had 2 confessionals: after the swap he finds himself at square one on the new tribe, he's got 115 days of Survivor and he's a veteran and he has to step up and prove to his tribe that he's still got it, he's valuable, not time to get rid of him yet! Then, the next one was regarding he and Cirie, now he needs her, time for him to start to build trust with her, if they do, Troyzan will be easy target.

Cirie, Michaela, Zeke, Sierra, and Andrea all had 1 confessional.
Cirie: on the first tribe she and Ozzy were not good, now she's trying to cultivate a relationship that could help her down the road.
Michaela: narrational: Sandra don't care about killing no goat, she was a villain for a reason!
Zeke: narrational: we get up to our new camp, nothing there but small amount of rice, a pot, machete, and we are trying to be congenial to Troyzan, but for all intents and purposes, he's the boot.
Sierra is narrational too: on the chopping block tonight are Hali and Caleb. I haven’t really talked to Hali since I played with her before on world’s apart, so seeing her here, you know, we have no relationship but, Tai and Caleb, they scare me, they are close, there would have to be some underlying alliance there. I mean, come on, you know each other but obviously if you target a strong player like Caleb, your chances of winning challenges get smaller and smaller. All I can think of is how close the dirty 30 are.....so I wonder about Hali and Sierra. Surely, Sierra wanted Caleb out, she's got far more of a relationship with Hali?
Andrea: Troyzan is a super cool guy, he’s super layed back but the thing is this is survivor and it’s a numbers game. We are going to get rid of him if we lose, so we need to make him feel comfortable. Just see this as a set up that could point to her getting booted when Troyzan plays his idol. It's just that she is so naiive with this statement.

Under the radar: Sarah and Aubry

In the preview promo, we heard Jiffy say 2 tribes going to TC. Sounds like it will be a double boot episode. Hmmmmm!

With a spike from bottom to top, I would say JT is not long for this game.

If Troyzan's tribe goes to TC, I think Andrea could be toast. But, I think that it will be the tribe that booted it's strength, and Hali just went from 0 to 2 confessionals. She could be toast.

Sandra settles down after her head to head with the king. But, she's driving the other tribe in a bus to get the goats and she doesn't realize that she could be the biggest goat of them all this season.

At High Risk: JT, Hali, Andrea
At risk: Sandra, Ozzy

Interesting to note that a lot of people have upward climbs, lots of arcs starting. Brad seems to be running the show at his tribe, and he told us that he wants to keep Debbie and Tai close to him. Sierra is much stronger in challenges than Hali. She could be toast next.

If Ozzy's tribe loses, we know that Troyzan will play his HII. Who will get bounced? Ozzy was under the radar and jumped to 2 this week and said it wasn't time to boot him just yet, but is it? But, it was Andrea that just sounded so naive, and if Ozzy and Cirie can mend, who knows?

LAST EDITED ON 03-19-17 AT 12:48 PM (EST)

THANK YOU FlowerPower! Awesome job!

Definitely NOT surprising that Sandra is #1 and Malcolm is #2.

LAST EDITED ON 03-20-17 AT 08:34 AM (EST)

Just wanted to make one more comment, I had alluded to some whose arcs seem to be in full swing. Namely, Malcolm (1-2-2-3), Varner (1-2-3), JT(1-4), all have building numbers of confessionals, which is significant, I think. I wouldn't be surprised if one of these is booted very soon. Also, wanted to mention those that had a jump from under the radar to more than one confessional...Troy went from 0-3, but I think the story supported the confessionals with him finding the HII, so he's most likely safe. Hali, 0 - 2, also due to the position she was in as boot decoy, she may be okay, but clearly she's at risk. But, Ozzy went from 0 - 2, and of course Brad went from 0-3. Brad emerged as the leader, manipulator, and got his way, which I think is positive for him. However, Ozzy is a question mark.

Great work as always Flowerpower1!

Which contestants would you say are least likely to get a confessional this upcoming episode, based on the current trends?

LAST EDITED ON 03-26-17 AT 09:01 AM (EST)

             episode | I | 1a| 1b| 2 | 3 | total
Sandra    Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12
Malcolm   Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9X
Varner    Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7
JT        Nuku-nuku  | * | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7
Cirie     Nuku-tavu  | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6
Debbie    Nuku-mana  | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6
Brad      Nuku-mana  | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 6
Tai       Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6
Hali      Mana-mana  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 5
Michaela  Mana-nuku  | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 5
Troyzan   Mana-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 3 | * | 4
Ozzy      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 4
Zeke      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 3
Aubry     Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3
Andrea    Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3
Sierra    Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3
Sarah     Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 2

Ciera          Mana  | * | 2 | 2X
Tony           Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X
Caleb     Mana-mana  | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6X

First of all, MALCOLM. I'm sad, I really wanted to see what he could do. But, have to admit that Brad's tribe played that so well, and that could be a critical move in this game. Malcolm was not at high risk, but I did note that his stock was rising steadily which does (did) put him at risk.

This week, not too many confessionals as we had an RC and an IC. Sandra, JT, Tai, and Hali had the most confessionals with 2 each. Sandra is still talking about how she is loving her tribe (setting them up for the fall), and she's the queen. Then she spoke of if anyone strays from the plan, they are dead meat walking....(It takes one person to flip but we have to vote 6 strong. If someone messes this up they are getting an ##### beating when they come back to this camp. With all of Sandra's "I am the queen", we can be certain that there is no way that she's winning this game. There are so many cuts to her as well visually. She's the dead girl walking, imo.

Hali: She was the boot decoy last week, and many references by others in her tribe as the next to go, but as she noted, my have the tables turned. But, if her tribe loses, she's still high on the list. First confessional tells us that she knows she's lucky, but is telling Debbie, she's your asset, and Tai's your liability. Second was about there are so many options tonight at TC, but you need to consider your long term and short term options.

Tai: First confessional was reactionary, he's sad he had to let Caleb go because they are such good friends, but now he's playing with his head, not his heart. Then the confessional about finding the HII, they have the numbers we have the idol, The best key to life, the key to our life.

JT: First confessional is that he can tell that Sandra knows she in charge because of her sass. Malcolm is with him, he can tell, he's excited. So, if they lose the next IC, he can put his plan into action and get rid of Sandra. Cocky confessionals are never a good sign. Next, JT tells us he thinks Brad will go for Sandra, and he could go with him. Or, play it safe and go with Sierra or Tai. He'd rather go with Sandra. If I wanted to I could really change the course of this game. That he did.

Malcolm, Varner, Cirie, Ozzy, Debbie, Brad, Aubry, Andrea, and Sierra all had one confessional.

So Malcolm lays it out exactly: I’m starting to think that I need to be ready for anything because this is game changers and who knows what Probst is cooking up next? Me and JT wanted to get rid of Sandra but we do have a numbers advantage, we are up 6-5 on Mana, so if we stay together It’s very simple on paper but it’s not on paper. Too little, too late.

Varner: He sums up the tribe angst after the IC, and always thinking of the game as an individual. Still narrating. We’re not on the same page. Everybody’s on their own page. This is Survivor and everybody plays as part of a tribe and it’s an individual game from the beginning regardless of what anybody says.

Cirie: Comments on the losing Troyzan, and he's in trouble, misdirection, but clearly setting us up for a SURPRISE down the road, when one is bounced because of Troy's idol. we thought we had it but then Troyzan dropped the ball, he’s terrible. And now Troyzan’s life is hanging on by a string.

Ozzy: Boy, he never changes. If I catch fish and keep everyone happy then they will keep me around. Will Ozzy be the one bounced from Troy's idol? idk? As a tribe, losing was horrible, we all want to win! But, it was great for me, because they need me to survive in this game. I feel really confident, I have been doing an awesome job being the rock of this tribe. Not to toot my own horn, but I’m able to catch alot of fish and provide a constant source of protein. If I didn’t bring food in then my name would come up alot more than it does. But more than that It’s like a source of meditation, it gives me a chance to think about the game and come back a little more grounded. It’s just extraordinary! But, I do appreciate Ozzy's love for the game and as always, he's clearly in his element.

Andrea: She validates Ozzy's assessment of himself, she's in awe of him as a Survivor fan.

Debbie: She gets a confessional that this is not the first time she's played, it's the second. She's not falling for Hali's lines, her plan is to stick with old Nuku, Hali has no options!

Brad: Lucky to be on this tribe of followers, he's the only alpha, and Debbie, perhaps by her military influence seems happy to call him leader. his tribal is going to be extremely complicated. Because now we are going against their six, against our five. I know that 4 of us are going to vote one way, we have 1 wild card, Hali, who used to be on death row, however now the survivor gods have smiled on her and she’s in a pretty enviable position. Summing up the suspense for the coming TC. Narrating.

Aubry: Her confessional sums up the tribe reaction to the twist presented at the IC: This twist is so dangerous to everyone because any fracture to any relationship is a reason to send somebody home tonight. This tribal is going to be insane. Narrational, observational.

Sierra: Sierra got the last confessional, and she was a lucky girl because they played the tribal council to perfection....Right before tribal Tai has found an idl. I’m extremely excited but I am also completely terrified because we just don’t know who to play it for. Alot can go wrong but I am just praying because this could be a huge move. Tonights tribal has never been done before. This is going to be crazy because it can be anybody tonight. Sierra will be bound to Tai and Brad moving forward, and the old Nuku tribe remains tight.

Michaela, Troy, Zeke, and Sarah all fall under the radar. However, Michaela is seen and heard from in the show, as is Troy when he is the reason they lose the reward, and then chooses to sit out the IC. Zeke and Sarah completely under the radar.

At HIGH RISK: JT. I see JT as a dead man walking should his tribe go to TC, and with Malcolm gone, Sandra and Varner there, that tribe could be doomed. Sandra. The queen will be gone sooner rather than later.

At risk: Ozzy, Cirie, Andrea at risk at their tribe if they lose, but I don't see them losing this week. Hali: She's still not one of the original Nuku's and that tribe seems strong. But, we see Debbie losing it in the next episode, the tables could turn again, perhaps?

LAST EDITED ON 04-02-17 AT 08:37 AM (EST)

             episode | I | 1a| 1b| 2 | 3 | 4 | total
Sandra    Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 15
JT        Nuku-nuku  | * | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4*| 11X
Varner    Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9
Debbie    Nuku-mana  | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9
Tai       Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8
Michaela  Mana-nuku  | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 3 | 8
Brad      Nuku-mana  | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7
Cirie     Nuku-tavu  | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 6
Hali      Mana-mana  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6
Troyzan   Mana-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 3 | * | 1 | 5
Ozzy      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 4
Aubry     Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 4
Andrea    Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 3
Zeke      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 3
Sierra    Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 3
Sarah     Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 3

Ciera          Mana  | * | 2 | 2X
Tony           Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X
Caleb     Mana-mana  | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6X
Malcolm   Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9X

* - Million doller quote

JT was the leader with 4 confessionals all to serve him up on a silver platter, presented by Sandra with 3 confessionals. Varner narrated the events. Michaela also as the boot decoy, had 3 and Aubry had 1 as well. The Nuku tribe is stealing the show as they are the tribe that is losing and going to TC.And, they are the tribe with 2 previous winners remaining.

JT: TC went as badly as it could, Malcolm was my BFF, they can't prove what I said, I will defend myself as best I can, I'm here to win a million dollars. Then, JT realizes he must find an idol, and he does. He will tell no one, and that idol will keep me safe in the game. Next, after the JIC, Michaela is starting to lose her bearings and she's unstable. The challenge was tough for me but no one wants to babysit out here, she wants 7 drips of coffee with a spoonful of sugar! Final confessional: I can’t think of any reason why someone would want to keep Michaela in this game. And, it’s fine with me. If I have to use my idol to stay I will, but they need me to stay to win challenges. So, sad that the sugars going to be gone but nothing sweeter than see Michaela get her torch snuffed. Interesting to note that JT has a million dollar quote as he is practically out the door.

Sandra had 3 confessionals. First one: JT is all over this, and if he knows me he knows I will send his a$$ packing right behind Malcolm. He crossed me and it's payback time! Second confessional: Reminiscent of her old tricks from Pearl Islands when she threw out Ruperts fish, Sandra has another brilliant plan: So JT was annoyed that Michaela was using one tablespoon of sugar for a tiny sip of coffee. So, I had a sweet idea. So, I said I'm just gonna go ahead and eat the rest of the sugar. The only other person that uses the sugar here is JT and Michaela. So, I knew JT would blame Michaela for the sugar jar being empty. Then, her final confessional: Todays immunity challenge was for JT to win, but he didn't know how bad. I need to get vengeance for Malcolm, and between Michaela, Varner, and I, we make a good team! Sandra is completely in the drivers seat, and Varner is laughing all they way along.

Michaela also had 3 confessionals....JT was trying to accuse me of taking the sugar, I was so mad, and the problem with me is that the more I try to hold something in the worse it gets. She had to hold it in, hold it in, hold it in, but she wanted to kill him! Then, after the IC loss she recounts the last time she went home they lost a challenge that had sling shots and targets, and now they lost again, but she couldn't go out like this again....she hopes. Then, finally, she's ready for JT to go home, he's irritating, but the only thing that could go wrong is if Sandra or Varner voted for her instead.

Debbie also had 3: Her confessionals are all a reflection that underlines how delusional she is about her own perception of her abilities. We saw multiple times how well Hali did in the challenge, while seeing how poorly Debbie did. But, in her delusional mind, she said that it took Hali 10 minutes to get across, and she "flew" across it. Her first confessional was blaming Brad to be a dictator in the challenge, but we all saw Debbie volunteer to do the balancing part because she was GREAT at it. Her next confessional was a rant, on how Brad doesn't respect her, Hali sucked, I zipped across in 30 seconds, it's nauseatingly frustrated and I'm pissed! And, finally, she doesn't explode in anger, she takes it out in her workout, that's why she has those abs, Brads a wanker, next time she will target Brad...(as we see Brad apologizing to her). All makes Debbie look like the next boot OR, the perfect goat?

Varner narrated with 2 confessionals: One, JT thinks Michaela stole the sugar but it's ALL Sandra, Brilliant! hahahaha! Next, He is in the perfect spot could go with Sandra/Michaela to vote out JT, or go with JT and Aubry and vote out Michaela. I want to do BOTH! So, it comes down to voting out an attitude problem, see Michaela, or voting out a threat, see JT.

Tai had 2 confessionals as well. First was narrational about trying to comfort Debbie, but she is different, Hali is way better than her, she's acting like a crazy lady. Next, he spoke of how it makes him uncertain of his position in the tribe, so much tension, so he has to take his game into his own hands and go find an idol, and he does, he finds the clue! And, keeps it for later!

Aubry, Brad, Hali, Troyzan, and Sara all had 1 confessional.

Aubry: her tribe sucks, she doesn't even know the name of it, they came into JT's camp and he's part of them, Michaela has to go.

Brad: Only thing predictable about Debbie is that she's unpredictable. Brad is the rational one!
Hali: Narrational: Debbie's explosion on Brad was centered on her not being heard, Hali doesn't see it, Brad is great in challenges, and I am the little princess that gets what I want, and she's the ghoul that gets nothing.
Sara: Her confessional is different in that it starts to tell us her way of thinking: Our little Tavua tribe who had to start from scratch is somehow banding together and winning and dominating stuff, but she doesn't want to be over confident in the event that something crazy happens. (foreshadowing that something crazy is going to happen, and we know from the preview that they are mixing it up next week!) She needs options. She continues that Troy is the odd man out against her and the other four. She continues that the set four, that's boring, she doesn't like it, (hear suspenseful music), they need to grow up, come on! She goes on to note that she is playing like a criminal this time, that she knows how criminals lie to her, so she knows how to lie to these people. Then we see her interact with Troy and rope him in. This is a great sign for Sara, I think, that while the others are getting along, we see she is not happy, and is making efforts to create options for herself. We also know that next week, perhaps she will need options.
Troyzan: Goes along! He has an idol, Sara doesn't know anything about it, but if he could work with her and save his idol, that would be the golden ticket!

Under the radar: the rest of the winners, Tavua: Cirie, Ozzy, Andrea, Zeke. and then Sierra.

Next week we know that the tribes will be shuffled again as they go down to 2 tribes, and one left out, will go to exile island, where a former survivor will come for a visit and some sage advice. *choke*

We see close ups of Ozzy, Andrea, Sandra, and Troyzan in the preview. Of those 4, I feel that Sandra and Ozzy are the most at risk. We know that Troy has an idol, and Andrea just is almost nonexistent with her story, and you would think we would see an uptick a bit with confessionals if she was the next to go. (albeit, she could be a hidden boot with no confessionals?)

At risk: Sandra. She's seen in the preview promo, and things are getting mixed up. We know Brad is out to get her. Her arc is climbing, could be the end for her.
Debbie: She's a wacky wanker herself, and her uptick is troubling....she's either at great risk as a liability, unpredictable player, or she's a long term goat. Her mouth, however, makes me put her in the former category, she's not long for the game.
Michaela: She had an uptick, but she was the boot decoy?
Ozzy: Ozzy has had episodes of playing to prove his worth to the tribe. we saw his reaction to the powerful player, Malcolm, getting voted out. Ozzy is a threat, and he is winning all the group challenges. He went under the radar this episode which makes him a prime candidate for a hidden boot.

Slight risk: Andrea, she is seen winning, but not heard. We see her in the next preview promo. Something could happen with Andrea next week, and she had no confessionals this episode, so possible hidden boot?
Varner: slight risk as his arc is slightly rising.

Safe: everyone else

Thanks FlowerPower!!

I noticed this pattern...

Ciera: NO Intro
Tony: Intro
Caleb: NO Intro
Malcolm: Intro
JT: NO Intro

So if that pattern continues the last players with an Intro confessional are: Sandra, Debbie, Brad, Cirie

LAST EDITED ON 04-16-17 AT 11:04 AM (EST)

episode              | I | 1a| 1b| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | total 
Sandra    Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 19X 
Varner    Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13 
Tai       Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 
Debbie    Nuku-mana  | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11 
Brad      Nuku-mana  | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9
Michaela  Mana-nuku  | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 3 | * | 8  
Troyzan   Mana-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | 7  
Zeke      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 4 | 7 
Cirie     Nuku-tavu  | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 6 
Hali      Mana-mana  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 6 
Ozzy      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 5 
Aubry     Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 
Andrea    Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 4 
Sarah     Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 1 | 4 
Sierra    Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 3 
Ciera          Mana  | * | 2 | 2X 
Tony           Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X 
Caleb     Mana-mana  | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6X 
Malcolm   Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9X 
JT        Nuku-nuku  | * | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4*| 11X

Will be back later to fill in the story of the confessionals.

For as much as Sandra reminded us that she is the QUEEN of Survivor, she really is. We saw more how her mind works and she operates in this season than we ever saw in the past. Perhaps because the editors chose to highlight other more outlandish characters. But, this season we really saw her go, and considering that she probably did have the largest target on her back from day one, I'd say she did pretty darn well. If she had made merge, she could have slipped farther away from the bullseye, perhaps? Every budding Survivor hopeful can certainly learn ALOT from Sandra. She had 4 confessionals in her boot episode. Her first one was optimistic while noting that she and Varner were in a bad spot, but give her a few days and she will figure it out and land on top, running things again. The second: Varner told me they want to vote out Tai, and as long as it ain’t me, I’ll vote Tai all day, everyday. (In true Sandra fashion! But, inside it’s not adding up because it would be stupid of them not to get rid of me or Varner. Winning is the only way to make sure that they aren’t filling our heads with a pile of BS. We will see what happens at the challenge but if they don’t think I am going to take charge of this situation they don’t know the queen.

Sandra never gives up and works another angle: Of all 3 times I have played Survivor, I feel like this is the first time that something could go wrong. Varner is telling me that Tai is going home but I don’t believe it. So, I just can’t hope for the best. I need to assess the situation and work my magic. I laid out the scenario of the koah Rong 3, Aubry is still here, Debbie is still here, and Tai is still here. They could say that they are not friends but at the end of the day they shared that one season together, they have shared what no one else has shared and when you come out to play a game like this you usually stick with what you know. The voice of experience and a seasoned veteran, who is still sharp as a tack. Finally, even up against the wall she has a plan to work: coming into this game I knew I would have the biggest target on my back and now Tai is saying they are coming after me. Tonights TC is all about making Tai enemy number one. Emma set him up big time, and imma twist it around. He will go home. Unfortunately, it was not to pass. But, she gave it a valiant effort.

Sarah's one confessional underlined the power of the Queen, and she had a sharp observation. She never raises her voice, there is a reason she is a two time winner, etc.I wonder if Sarah being chosen to have the confessional of astute observationalist will pay off for her later in the game?

Varner also had 4 confessionals as he was in the hot seat as well. He narrates the situation, then relays his hope when Zeke points the target at Tai, but is he too naive? His final confessional: I am not going home tonight, Tai is, unless Tai has an idol....hahahhahaha, we know that Tai has 2, which again paints Varner as native and not nearly as astute with observations as Sarah is.

Tai also had 4 confessionals. Frankly, I am getting tired of Tai complaining how smart everyone else is and poor little me, I got to find the idols, while he does. He is sneaky and relentless with them and the only one that seems to notice is Andrea. Her one confessional: Tai is the perfect decoy because Tai is dangerous in this game. He’s really good at finding idols and he’s really sneaky. He’s all over the place. It makes me very nervous working with someone like that. So even though we are actually targeting Sandra, it would make sense to get rid of Tai.

Tai had so many confessionals wrapped up in his paranoia of being the target then finding the idols. I feel that with all this attention, he is going to fall short of the game.

Zeke also had 4, and this was a huge jump from his prior game. This is the start of an arc for Zeke, for sure! But, is it the beginning of his final arc? The first confessional underlines the importance of getting the queen out, she's the single biggest threat in the history of the game as a two time winner...no one has ever gotten her out before, it will be tough! He narrates the events: Tai is the name they are giving Varner and Sandra, but if he finds out, they will be in trouble. Then, he tells us how much he likes Varner....someone who is desperate that I could work with. Then, post IC, the only solace he has is that it gives them the opportunity to finally get out Sandra, but they have to buy that Tai is going home.

Zeke did a lot of narrating and managing of the events, and we saw it play out.

The people that had 2 confessionals served to advance the story. Brad and Troyzan both spoke about how Troy was alone, but Brad says oh no you aren't, you are with me, and that they have each other moving forward. Brad comments that he has a solid now with Sierra, who has been with him from the start, and now Troy, but that makes 3 and he needs 4.

Troyzan and Brad may be important to the story, otherwise why would we see such a benign exchange? I suppose one could argue, alliances revealed don't succeed as well.

Debbie also had 2 long confessionals regarding the exile island adventure, mixed in with 2 confessionals by Cochran. Cochran, as astute as ever, Debbie suffering from a large bout of over confidence, play like you are sorry, kiss their collective a$$es. Then, her final advantage with the extra vote. This was a new twist and so as such was featured, but will it be important to the story of Survivor? I doubt it. It is delusional Debbie after all. Then again, Coach made it to F2?

Aubry's confessional noted that she was blindsided, and that Sandra is still the queen. Sets up the episode.

Ozzy had a reactionary confessional to Tai telling Varner the plan they had to vote out Sandra. Why would he do that? Ozzy.....guess that sums up his game: reactionary. He's not long for the game imo.

I already mentioned Sarah's astute observation of how Sandra operated, and Andrea's confessional about the sneaky, Tai.

Easy to see Varner and Sandra are sitting ducks and they are both in the final arc of the show. Who's next? Ozzy, Tai, perhaps? Would love to see Tai get blindsided with 2 idols in his pocket!

Who is looking good? Culpepper, Troyzan, Sierra...(soon to be joined with Aubry and Cirie!)

episode              | I | 1a| 1b| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | total 
Varner    Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17X  
Tai       Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 13 
Debbie    Nuku-mana  | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12
Brad      Nuku-mana  | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11
Michaela  Mana-nuku  | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 3 | * | * | 8  
Zeke      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 4 | 1 | 8 
Troyzan   Mana-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | * | 7
Cirie     Nuku-tavu  | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 7 
Aubry     Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 
Sarah     Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 
Hali      Mana-mana  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | * | 6 
Ozzy      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 6 
Andrea    Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | * | 4 
Sierra    Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 4 
Boots:
Ciera          Mana  | * | 2 | 2X 
Tony           Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X 
Caleb     Mana-mana  | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6X 
Malcolm   Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9X 
JT        Nuku-nuku  | * | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4*| 11X
Sandra    Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 19X 
Varner    Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17X 

Varner was the star of his boot episode. He started out sharing his feelings of anger, but he couldn't show it, he gets to work right away and bonds with Zeke. He's not done yet. Next, he's happy they won the RC, but it doesn't mean anything, in order to avoid the boot he has to throw shade on on someone else, Ozzy. He's strong, he's a threat to win, time to get rid of Ozzy. After losing the IC, he knows he's on the bottom, but he has to do everything he can to get everyone to vote for Ozzy. Finally, his last confessional reveals that when he pitched Ozzy to Zeke, he shut him down. Zeke doesn't want to get rid of Ozzy, He will cut them all off at the knees, he knows something about Zeke, unrelated to the game, this is not the guy you think he is. He's going to raise mortal hell to stay in the game.

Varner was definitely consumed with staying longer in this game and he made some horrible decisions. He leaves without a vote.

Regarding Zeke, he had one confessional which explained while he really liked Varner and wanted to save him, he needed Ozzy because he needed bigger threats out there than he was. So, he was not voting for Ozzy. But, Zeke was the real star of the show when he reacted to the horrible circumstances that Varner set in motion. #teamzeke.

I think we could all speculate how this will indeed affect his game as well.

Aubry, Brad, and Sarah all had 2 confessionals.

Aubry's confessionals occurred at the bonding at their tribe after the loss of pizza sent them all into depression and despair. They bonded over the Survivor experience and how hard it is. First confessional was that it changes you and it's really hard to explain what you have been through. Next was that she is amazed how Brad consistently opens up and he's the most genuine person out there, and that she feels, after a few days that he is the first person she has working with her. This could be a significant confessional for Aubry, she's found her rock, and she could go far, because that rock has friends.

Brad's confessionals were also wrapped around Aubry's and Cirie's, his two new BFF's. First confessional was how he couldn't relate to Monica lasting so long, but now, at day 17, he can, and she's his anchor and his compass, it's right there on his arm. The Brad posse is now complete: Cirie and Aubry came up to me and said that it was so special that you said that , the real me, and surprisingly made us feel closer and really galvanized my relationshp between those two. Troyzan, Sierra and Myself already have a good connection, so I think it solidifies on this side on who I want to go with.

I know we usually say alliances revealed don't succeed, but I do feel this group is significant because we have seen how each and every member of it has come into it. Brad, Sierra, Troyzan, Aubry, Cirie. I wouldn't be surprised if that were the pecking order as well. Time will tell.

Cirie's confessional set the stage, noting pizza would have been nice, but at day 17, you break down, it's tough emotionally and physically, don't know what to do. Sierra's confessional set the stage as well....complained about losing 10 pizzas, she's exhausted, hasn't "ate" for 3 days, no sleep, lost a crap ton of weight...

Sarah had 2 confessionals that served to create doubt to the fall of Varner. After she heard from Varner that Zeke is with Ozzy, and "throwing them under the bus". She then goes on the warpath. Her first confessional is in regard to liking Varner and wanting to get Ozzy out, that's a huge move, but she's ready to make it to prove that she is a game changer. They are close to a merge and it may be time to take out the biggest threat, Ozzy. Then, she reacts to what Varner tells her about Zeke and Ozzy. Do Zeke and Ozzy have something more going on that she doesn't know about? They need to get rid of Ozzy and keep Varner!

Sarah's confessional does cast doubt, but she's looking more like the dominant player at this tribe....I see her and Andrea vs. Zeke and Ozzy brewing, and I have no idea who Tai is tighter with. I am shocked that Tai has gone under the radar after throwing Ozzy under the bus last week, and Andrea's comments regarding him? I don't think that Ozzy is long for this game, so therefore, I see the girls as in the better position moving forward? The girls were on the original Nuku tribe, and this could help them, especially since I think they are more in tune with Sierra/Brad then Zeke/Ozzy.

Debbie's confessional was first of the show and just commented on that she's back at Nuku where she belongs, she isn't sharing what happened on Exile, she's not letting herself or Mr. Cochran down.

Tai had one confessional: In tribal he was worried, he had to throw a name out there and Ozzy is the one that could win all the IC's, he's paranoid, he could have been voted out right there, I have 2 idols but I'm nervous, this thing has a life of it's own. Tai's only story is that he's a paranoid guy and that drives him to hunt for idols 24/7.

Ozzy also had one confessional commenting on how epic it was to win the reward, it's so important because the game is wearing on them now.

Michaela, Troyzan, Hali, Andrea all under the radar. Hali got no confessionals but she did win the IC for the tribe with solving the metamorphosis, and she was chosen to receive the II.

At risk: Ozzy: His name is constantly brought up all around him, yet we don't see him fighting for his survivor life nor throwing the shade at anyone else. His only strategy is to win and keep them happy. All that winning is making him more and more threatening to his tribe mates as merge looms near.

Others that have things to note: Tai and Zeke move from 4 to 1. They could be at risk for a surprise boot. Debbie's arc has quieted down as well, she could be ripe for a hidden boot.

Thanks FlowerPower! Love the new format of the chart. Looks great!

Besides the Caleb vote off, ALL of the others have been either a 3 Time Player or a Winner. If that trend continues then possible boots for this double episode could be:

4 time player Ozzy (IC Threat and Finalist in Cook Islands)
4 time player Cirie (Strategic Threat)
3 time player Andrea (IC Threat)

Other players at risk could be the other 2 Finalists

Aubry (2nd Place and part of Kaoh Rong 3)
Tai (3rd Place and part of Kaoh Rong 3)

However I would think those players with Idols (Tai(2) and Troyzan) and Advantage (Sierra and Debbie) are probably pretty safe.

Feels like we are headed toward an end game of only "second chance" players.

LAST EDITED ON 04-17-17 AT 07:51 PM (EST)

Another thing that stands out is that all boots were of people in the top tier of the confessional count (except for Ciera who didn't really have time to confess) So, in that regard, Ozzy and Cirie could be safe even if our instincts say otherwise. Tai and Debbie being both voted out would be very satisfying.

Thanks Michel! I meant to point that out too. Though Tai and Debbie confessional counts are higher than the others as Tai has found 3 Idols and currently holds 2 and Debbie got Exile Yacht + Cochran + Advantage. And Tai would join the ranks for James for dumb moves if he got voted out with 2 Idols!

And Tai would join the ranks for James for dumb moves if he got voted out with 2 Idols!

Bingo!

LAST EDITED ON 04-30-17 AT 08:53 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 04-30-17 AT 08:50 AM (EST)

episode              | I | 1a| 1b| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | total 
Cirie     Nuku-tavu  | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 8 | 15
Tai       Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 
Debbie    Nuku-mana  | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14
Brad      Nuku-mana  | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13
Zeke      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 4 | 1 | 4*| 12
Michaela  Mana-nuku  | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 3 | * | * | 3 | 11   
Aubry     Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 
Sarah     Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 
Sierra    Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 7 
Troyzan   Mana-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 7
Hali      Mana-mana  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | * | 3 | 9X 
Ozzy      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 6 
Andrea    Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 | 5 
Boots:
Ciera          Mana  | * | 2 | 2X 
Tony           Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X 
Caleb     Mana-mana  | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6X 
Malcolm   Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9X 
JT        Nuku-nuku  | * | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4*| 11X
Sandra    Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 19X 
Varner    Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17X 
Hali      Mana-mana  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | * | 3 | 9X 

Trying to catch up! All of the back reviewing and charting confessionals is time consuming and it's been a little hectic lately. So sorry!

The episode started out with the fall out from Varner's reveal that Zeke was transgender. Sara got the first confessional with where she comes from she doesn't meet any transgender people. But, she's gotten to know and love Zeke, and to her, Zeke is Zeke! She loves that guy and if anything it makes us stronger! Her confessional is reactionary to underline empathy towards people with any kind of struggle that choose to live their true selves. She speaks for the group, and most likely for production. This was Sara's only confessional of the episode.

After Zeke's reveal and reaction to it, the star of the show was Cirie who leaped up with 8 confessionals. The experienced veteran and former couch potato is always a star no matter what season she's in. She had 8 confessionals. Her first confessional was narrational about coming into the challenge and seeing the buffet table, and another covered table. Next, was commenting on Brad and Tai getting brownie points for sacrificing themselves so they all could eat but that makes her suspicious of them.
Next, the experienced veteran lets us in on how she perceives the merge: Once the merge happens it takes off like a jet plane. Yeah, we all happy and drinking and last suppering together, but people having conversations or reuniting, everybody is sizing everybody up. And, things are going to start flying, peoples heads are going to start rolling, so this is where I step my game up.

The next confessionals have to do with Michaela and her identifying with her and wanting to save her as an ally for herself: Michaela wears her heart on her sleeve, and I used to be like that, literally it was age, I was a hot head like Michaela, I thought I knew everything, laughs, but I learned when you put that guard up you push people away, and in a game like Survivor, you want to bring as many people in as possible, you don’t want to push people away or make people uncomfortable. Then, Right now Michaela is public enemy number one, but I really like M. And, as a human, and as an older person to a younger person, I want to save her and if I can do that that is one person I can count on to have my back. She continues with her thinking, I don’t particularly like to vote for M....is that good for my game? Why would I just go with their plan, because Sierra says so? Being that there were 2 options, Michaela and Hali, why not Hali? She goes on to say that you cannot win the war without a sufficient army, so if Michaela goes home there is one less person that she can count on. Her last confessional before TC: Everybody is on edge, everybody is watching everybody. So, I need Michaela to vote for Zeke, so nobody knows who switched the plan. Tonight, for me, the vote is about saving a person that I can count and depend on to vote on our side. And, If I pull this off the future of my game is looking good!

The veteran knows what she's doing! And her arc is seriously underway!

Zeke had 4 confessionals. His first was a reaction to being put on the spot at TC the night before, but he ends the confessional with a comment about how his fellow survivors stood up for him, but now, he's hear to win a million dollars and let's get back to it! A MILLION DOLLAR QUOTE for Zeke! His second confessional was a comment on Culpepper after the reward sacrifice. He didn't think he liked the way he was portrayed in B vs. W, so it's his "hero" brand now. The third confessional is great commentary about the politicking at the merge....Michaela could be a potential vote for somebody moving forward. This vote, it’s a bigger deal than anyone is letting on. And, there have been 2 sort of natural groups fighting to get in a power position moving forward. It’s Cirie, Sarah, Andrea, and myself, then there is Brad and Sierra’s group and I think everyone is wondering, is the other side going to strike first and I’m going to be caught with my pants down. And, we have to strike first, this is the last moment of people pretending to get along. It’s the smiles before the blood bath. And, his last confessional sums this all up: Tonight's vote is the opening shot in a war between 2 alliances. And, I think that everyone sees Michaela and Hali as potential soldiers in their army so this vote is about making sure the other side is one man down.

Zeke is a great story teller and he's narrating events.

Sierra had 3 confessionals. As the "New Sheriff in town", she's giving us over confidence...Her first confessional is about saving her legacy advantage till 6....I made the merge, I have food, I feel like a whole new woman. Now I am going to go in guns blazing, I am ready to make some moves. And, I also have my legacy advantage and I can only use it when their are 13 or 6 people left in the game. Right now we are at 13, but I am willing to do whatever it takes to keep it in my back pocket and use it at 6. She is the voice of one of the groups: So me and Brad don’t want to work with Michaela. I think she’s a little shifty, she’s tough to be around, she’s a loose cannon. She’s a beast in challenges. There’s many threats that Michaela has if we keep her in the game that will hurt a lot of us. Everytime I talk to somebody here comes Michaela creeping around the bush, she will not let me talk to anybody. She’s also very blunt and doesn’t have a lot of tact. I am constantly on edge with Michaela around, this has to be blindside, she can’t know that her name is getting tossed around. If one thing sets Michaela off, we are all going down. Next, we start to hear her over confidence, which is NEVER A GOOD SIGN. As of now I feel like I am the one who is in charge. I love having control. And, from what I see, my perspective, there’s our big group, then we have our outsiders, see Hali, then Michaela, are Hali and M. I think Michaela going home tonight is what’s best, but I am really worried about an idol getting played. Seeing Hali play this time around as opposed to last time, she’s playing completely different, and that triggers something, she might have an idol. Right now the numbers are so big, I want to just split it between those two in case there is an idol.

Hali also had 3 confessionals in her boot episode. The spike before the boot.
Michaela, as the boot decoy also had 3. She first talks about how quickly you can become a target, and that she's done nothing but has already heard her name said, so she has to find someone that she can trust and maybe that person is Cirie. Next, was about how she and Cirie do have some commonalities, and her heart to heart conversation with Cirie has made her trust in her skyrocket. She's very excited to play with Cirie. And, her last one was about how she doesn't want to explode at this time, but her names on the chopping block. Her life is in Cirie's hands and she trusts it there!

Brad and Debbie had 2 confessionals: Brad: In football you are only as good as your next move. I made the merge, awesome, it’s in my rear view mirror, I ‘m looking straight ahead. Who is the next person going to be? It’s not going to be me. Tai and I connected prior to today, on numerous occasions. I think I have kind of taken over his Caleb role from last season, so I think I can trust Tai moving forward. And, on my old tribe Micahela and Hali were on the bottom, so I want to gun for them first. To Tai (First of all we’ve got Sierra, Troyzan. Michaela and Hali are targets.) Brad tells us his vantage point. The next confessional was about how he was reconnecting with people, Tai, and Debbie, but didn't trust Michaela...

Debbie: She first talks about not drinking any alcohol but entertaining the group, but 13 is a big number and it will be pandemonium. Next, I swallowed my pride, and I did apologize to Brad. Cause, on exile, Cochran said extend the olive branch all the way around, we kissed and made up. I wanted to make sure that me and Brad could be as solid as we could be in a game of deception and intrigue. Heeding Cochran's advice is a positive.

Tai, Andrea, and Aubry all had 1 confessional. Tai trusts Brad, he's comfortable, he thinks he has his back, he's for once happy. Andrea is narrational: Tonights vote seems so simple but this is S game changers, no vote is simple, everyone has ulterior motives. So, tonights vote will come down to who is going to take control of this game.
And, Aubry, was also narrational. So much respect for Zeke, but it's merge and time to figure out who is in the loop and who is out of it.

Hali was a typical surprise boot, with no confessionals for the past 2 episodes, then 3 in her boot episode. We also have the luxury of knowing the outcome in the next episode, that Ozzy is next, so he will have another hidden boot edit = surprise boot.

Others to watch imo: Cirie: she has started a very large arc, but at this point her struggles and assessments embody the game of Survivor. She could be this seasons journey player.

With the merge, Sierra has an uptick with 3 confessionals and we know that she is getting more and more confident and arrogant. Which I think spells trouble for her sooner rather than later. While they all talk about how Sierra and Brad think they are in control, we see Sierra talking about being in control, but Brad is laying low. Clearly, Brad will have a better outcome than Sierra.

Zeke has an interesting confessional graph....up, down, up, down. He's clearly a narrater, so I don't give him too much longevity.

LAST EDITED ON 04-30-17 AT 09:55 AM (EST)

episode              | I | 1a| 1b| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7b| total 
Cirie     Nuku-tavu  | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 8 | 2 | 17
Tai       Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 
Debbie    Nuku-mana  | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16
Brad      Nuku-mana  | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14
Zeke      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 15
Michaela  Mana-nuku  | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 3 | * | * | 3 | 1 | 12   
Aubry     Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 
Sarah     Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 
Sierra    Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 
Troyzan   Mana-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | * | 7
Ozzy      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 8X 
Andrea    Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 8 
Boots:
Ciera          Mana  | * | 2 | 2X 
Tony           Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X 
Caleb     Mana-mana  | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6X 
Malcolm   Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9X 
JT        Nuku-nuku  | * | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4*| 11X
Sandra    Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 19X 
Varner    Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17X 
Hali      Mana-mana  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | * | 3 | 9X
Ozzy      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 8X  

Michaela starts the episode off with commenting on Cirie and how she saved her and how she wants to go with another Black American Female to the end, and that the last thing she wants to do is to mess up her game. Clearly, Michaela is on board with Cirie, as Cirie knew she would be.

Andrea and Zeke had the most confessionals of this episode, with 3 each. Rightly so, because we saw that Zeke, who apparently had played most of the game with Andrea, decides that Cirie and Andrea are far bigger threats than Sierra and Brad. Zeke starts that typically he is the one in control, but most of his information is given to him by Cirie and Andrea, and he doesn't think Sierra and Brad are as threatening, so he wants to target Cirie or Andrea this vote! Then a typical Zeke vote with amassing the snipers right now for the war: Rewards are great, it’s like all of a sudden I’m not like in Survivor anymore. But, when you remove yourself from the game, sometimes you can get lost in that, you know this is Game changers, your mind needs to be running, and if your mind is not running you are probably not in the game anymore. (see Zeke with Tai and Debbie), I’m a massing a team of snipers right now because I know the war is coming. A lot of people in this game think the war is going to start one way, but I am going to make sure that the war will start my way. Then his final one is about glad that Andrea didn't win immunity because he is targeting her. We see Zeke going to work as well. Andrea told him not to tell Debbie, so we see him telling Debbie. Then, we see him telling Sierra that Andrea and Cirie want her out. Zeke tells us he likes to make moves and we see him wrecking all kinds of havoc! He is a man of action!

Andrea: First confessional: I want to take either Brad or Sierra out, I'm gathering numbers to take over this game, which would be ideal! Then, commentary on the smell of the reward challenge, then finally, reaction to hearing that Zeke is ratting them out to the other side: I am furious with Zeke, I have been working with him since day 1, I thought we were not just in an alliance, I thought we were friends.

Clearly, there is a rivalry between Zeke and Andrea. Who will outlast the other and when the first one goes, does that complete the story arc, so the next one will immediately follow?

Cirie, Ozzy, Debbie, and Sara all have 2 confessionals. Cirie has a good confessional to start the episode: At Tribal, I voted for Michaela and M voted for Zeke. which was going along with the plan, but I have my own ideas and my own game that I want to play, so this next tribal council is going to let the dragon loose, it’s every thing going to be out in the open and the war is gonna start. The way I see Sierra and Brad, Sierra is like the godfather and she is controlling Brad and he is controlling Troyzan. It’s like a chain, so if we cut the top link off the chain, it’s just going to shatter so I think she could potentially be on the chopping block. Zeke is willing, Andrea is down, I trust officer Sara, and I know Michaela will go along with it, we are ready for war. We are soldiered up. Cirie has a plan in place. Her next confessional embodies the hardship of Survivor when she speaks about letting her team lose the RC, was like not being able to provide for her kids, it takes you to the lowest point and fears of your life. Emotional!

Debbie: Zeke is throwing out a story to get me and Tai to vote for Andrea which I was immediately skeptical of. The first thing you should ask yourself in this game is, is this information true? It’s hard for me to take anytihing Zeke says at face value because he is trying to form a coalition for himself. But, I am not in any frame of mind to be moving into the Zeke camp. I want to make a big move but I don’t need Zeke to make it. Debbie setting herself up for a big move indeed! Her next confessional gives herself all the credit, but she's willing to steer a big move....it’s okay if people think I am quirky. And, you can underestimate me, but if everybody listens to me; Brad, Sierra, Sara, Troyzan, Tai this will go off and we will be massive game changers tonight, largely thanks to me and, I have an extra vote. I don’t want to use it this early but I don’t know if I have the numbers.

Debbie starting to believe it's all about me. But, she did steer this brilliantly. She's proving to be a threat to win this game.

Sara: Contemplates her options in the game: we lost the marshalls spa day, it was a huge let down. But, I find that I have options. It’s going to come down to which group wants to vote out the person that I want gone, that’s who’s going to go.

Then, the last confessional of the night before Tc: At this point I am sitting between 2 groups that are starting to surface. The one group, Brad, Sierra, Troyzan, Tai, Debbie....they want to vote out Ozzy. Then there is a another group, Cirie, Andrea, Michaela, Aubry and Ozzy, and they want to see Zeke go. But voting out Ozzy right now that would be seeing a big social and challenge threat go right now, that’s the move to make early on in a merge, but then a lot of people want to vote Zeke out because he’s a smart guy and he’s willing to make moves, and when you trust somebody like that you will end up getting blindsided. It’s a real tough position to be in but a line will be drawn in the sand, this vote.

Sara sitting in a spot with two options for her game. I like that we are seeing AND hearing the game from Sara's shoes, yet she doesn't appear cocky and controlling like Sierra has, like Debbie has, like Zeke has.

Michaela, Tai, Aubry, Brad, Sierra all had one confessional. I already noted Michaela's. Tai commented on his streaking at the RC, it felt right, I promised myself to have fun. Aubry: She feels she is at a big Italian family dinner and Cirie is her Black Italian Aunt, and if she is going to be on team Cirie, that's fine by her! Brad: narrational, coming down to 2 sides and need to choose one because Tribal will determine who is on top. Then, Sierra: She got info from Zeke, but she doesn't trust him cause she thinks that he thinks she is stupid, but if her name is being said she has to find out....see her tell Cirie that Zeke told her. Sierra is now over confident, and a dumb player. She's not cunning, cagey, quiet. I don't see how she can win the game, but she is having a more significant edit this go round.

Under the radar: Troyzan

Debbie pulls it off which shines a light on her as a player. Ozzy blindsided, a hidden boot.

LAST EDITED ON 05-02-17 AT 07:54 AM (EST)

episode              | I | 1a| 1b| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7b| 8 | total 
Debbie    Nuku-mana  | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 20X
Cirie     Nuku-tavu  | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19
Zeke      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 17
Brad      Nuku-mana  | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 16
Sarah     Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16
Tai       Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 15
Michaela  Mana-nuku  | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 3 | * | * | 3 | 1 | * | 12
Sierra    Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11
Aubry     Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10
Andrea    Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10
Troyzan   Mana-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | * | 1 | 8 

Boots:
Ciera          Mana  | * | 2 | 2X 
Tony           Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X 
Caleb     Mana-mana  | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6X 
Malcolm   Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9X 
JT        Nuku-nuku  | * | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4*| 11X
Sandra    Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 19X 
Varner    Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17X 
Hali      Mana-mana  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | * | 3 | 9X
Ozzy      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 8X
Debbie    Nuku-mana  | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 20X  

In episode 7, Cirie had a breakout episode, and was featured. She's gone back to a consistent edit. This episode we have Sara featured, with 7 confessionals. The story this episode is told through Sara's eyes. Her first confessional was about how she while the line was drawn in the sand, she still wants to work with Zeke, he opens up options for her. AS much as people think the line is drawn in the sand, the tide comes up pretty early and washes it away! Next is post IC, when Sara is looking over at Michaela and can't believe she doesn't see this rolled up paper that says, "Secret Advantage", with Survivor Game Changers you've constantly got to be looking for idols and clues. Then, her with her third confessional she talks about what the secret advantage is: when we were leaving the challenge, I look over at Michaela and there was this secret advantage right at her feet. That’s called attention to detail. I’m a police officer. But, the normal person that drives down the road would not know if the persons registration tags right in front of them are expired or not. I would. Having this ad. opens up otions for me, I can completely flip the game. in the past these extra votes have not been played correctly. I will be the first one to play this vote correctly. With her fourth confessional, we start to get Sara's take on the game...I promised myself that coming out here that I will not make the same mistakes I made the first time I played. What I did in Cagayan was look for the safest route I could go. I sat back and didn’t make a move and let other people make the decisions. That didn’t work, it got me on the jury and not even close to the million dollars. There are small windows of opportunity in this game and if you are gonna miss them you are not going to win this game. However, this game is all about timing and I am not sure that the time is right to make a big move, but I am ready for it in the event that it is. She's showing growth, and she's an astute observer! She's also aware of the timing of it all. She wants to make a big move and I believe she will!

Her fifth confessional is Sara noting that she wasn't even asked her opinion on who to vote out so it's very indicative of where she stands in the pecking order, it might be time to make that move. Sixth confessional: This finds her reacting to Sierra telling her she wants to be F3 with she and Debbie! She questions that she may not be on the bottom after all! Then, finally, after Aubry worked her magic, Sara confesses that she wanted to go to the end with Debbie but now that she knows she's spreading lies about her...whatever she does it will determine how she finishes this game. It's always a very good sign when the game is seen through the perspective of a starring player, and this episode had Sarah in the starring role. But, I can't deny that it was Aubry(Debbie is a grade A liar!) and Cirie(in the hammock with Sara, clearly Sarah seeks the sage advice of a master) that steered the car! They were brilliant!

Debbie had 4 confessionals and of course some of them were her patting herself on the back...I loved this confessional: I told Aubry to vote for Michaela, in case Andrea pulls an idol, Michaela will go home. Plus, I told her that Sara doesn’t trust her. But, since she screwed me over the last time I still want Aubry to think that I am with her. Down the line I may need Aubry, so in order to do that I need her to think that I am her best friend. And, I think it’s working. Debbie underestimates Aubry every time she plays with her. Aubry had her confessional immediately following: Debbie reminds me now like she did around the time I voted her out of Koah Rong. She starts to get cocky and she makes mistakes. Aubry, talk about having her number! The red flag went up on Debbie immediately with this confessional. But, Aubry to me is a supporting player to Sarah.

Sierra had a spike in confessionals from 1 to 3, which is significant, I think. She's at a peak with her arrogance in the first confessional: I can confidently say that I don’t think life can get any better than this. Becuase we have 11 people in the game and it’s kind of great to watch the 5 people that are free agents get mad at each other and fall apart when what they should be doing is staying strong, and try to take the six out. I feel like the 6 is super tight and I don’t feel like anybody will break and I don’t think we will. As of now I feel like I am in the drivers seat and it feels great. Famous last words....this whole episode was a build up for one of the 6 to fall. Her next confessional commented on how luckily one of her 6 won immunity and that hopefully they would target Andrea, cause she is such a threat in the game. Then, finally she comments on Sarah: I think forming relationships in this game are really important and me and Sarah are really close. So, I feel super confident in Sara so at this point I think it would be fantastic if we were in the final 3 together. Clearly, Sierra thinks she can beat Sarah, so she wants her in the F3....Sarah might be there but I highly suspect that Sierra will not be. (and, we certainly know that Debbie will not! )

Andrea, Zeke, Brad, and Cirie all had 2 confessionals. Andrea was a boot decoy...She was shocked, TC was a shocker and she thought Zeke was with her, now she is in the minority. Her second is she is on board with Sara, she will not trust Zeke, but she is willing to play with anyone! Andrea is a force in this game! WE've seen what a competitor she is and now she is willing to move on and beyond, with someone that was gunning for her just last week!

Zeke admits that he's not in the numbers, so he knows that Andrea is coming for him, he has no choice but to stay with the majority. He so eloquently notes with his second confessional: The thing about the power alliance is I know where I stand with them. I kind of have to say it with my tail tucked between my legs, and keep my mouth shut and just vote how they want me to vote. And, that’s not really how I want to play this game. However, to do this, we gotta bring in Andrea, who I have no desire to work with but I will have to do it just for this one vote. Clearly, Zeke has bigger plans for later. So, the question for next episode will be, will he pull it off, or not? (We see him gathering Brad and Troyzan in the preview?) We also see that Andrea and Zeke are now in conflict, and while they are both able to step aside for this vote, the conflict is far from resolved.

Brad: His first confessional is in reference to the Reward Challenge...Survivor 101: don’t ever take your whole contingency on Reward. So, Troyzan and Sarah got left behind because I need them to be my eyes and ears back at camp. We got 5 on the outside, so all it takes is one or two to flip, to contaminate our six. (See Aubry and Andrea.) So, we hear from one in the power six that Sarah is indeed trusted, and then we see that he is referring to Aubry and Andrea as dangerous, capable of "contaminating" the six. His last confessional comments on how he cannot stand Michaela but Andrea is the bigger threat. Makes me believe that while Sierra thinks she is in charge, it's really Brad who is the head of the "chain".

Cirie has 2 confessionals as well. The first one was her reaction to not giving up at the challenge and the players that helped her, moving on to her commitment to really push herself in challenges and to develop relationships. Although we lost the challenge if I didn’t try to complete it, I would have been a complete failure. I just couldn’t let fear or exhaustion stop me or beat me this time. This is a rough game we are all vying for the same prize but when it comes down to it the people that are playing are really good people. And it showed in the way that they helped me today. And, I know that I am not a challenge beast, in the past I have done just what I needed to get by and I didn’t push further than that because it wasn’t really necessary, but by doing that I cheated myself in a lot of ways. I am not going to be afraid, and not do it anymore, I can do it. If I can’t win this game by winning challenges, I want to do everything that I can to try and solidify my relationships in the game. It’s going to be what’s necessary to win this game. Cirie is a seasoned veteran of the game and knows what her strengths and weaknesses are. She knows what she has to do to win the game. I would still put Cirie in the contender category, although her reputation may thwart her efforts.

Troy had one confessional reacting to his IC win. Troy seems insignificant to the story of the season despite having found an HII, and having won an IC. Nice guy, any game? But, remember, at it's core Survivor is a social game.

Tai and Michaela: Under the radar.

Observations:

Andrea and Zeke both have a dip in confessionals by one. While they worked together for this past vote, I think they are a conflict couple. I feel like they could be at risk, but I don't think they are at high risk, at this point. However, I do think their conflict will be resolved sooner rather than later. It will be interesting to see if when the first one is booted, will the other go immediately after.

Sarah had the biggest spike. But, I think she is at the core of the events. She could get serious backlash, but at this point, I don't think she's the next boot. Sara seems to be trusted by many....Cirie, Zeke, Andrea, Brad, Sierra, Aubry. They all need her, and let's face it, Debbie, the loose canon was not a sure thing. I expect Sara to survive the next episode.

Safe: Aubry, Tai, Troyzan, Cirie, Brad, Sarah.

At slight risk: Michaela goes under the radar, no one seems to like her but Cirie. She's at slight risk. Andrea, Zeke.
High risk: Sierra has the most significant spike up 2. But, this could be a repeating pattern for Sierra, as we note she's gone 1 - 3, then 1 - 3. BUT, couple this with the continued over confidence that she exudes and arrogance, and I see that she is very ripe for a fall. Cirie has identified her as the head of the chain. She's at high risk!

Thanks FlowerPower for all the hard work!

Wow Cirie had EIGHT confessionals in Ep 7!!

I'm hoping that the confessionals do point to the next boot, we'll see!

LAST EDITED ON 05-02-17 AT 07:23 PM (EST)

"Sierra has the most significant spike up 2."

??

With a spike to 7 confessionals, shouldn't Sarah be the one at High Risk according to your formula?

LAST EDITED ON 05-04-17 AT 06:50 AM (EST)

Yes, I agree, by far Sarah does have the featured spike, but as Cirie did with 8, I think there is far more to Sarah's story. Clearly, you are right. I don't think Sarah is in danger of being voted out, however.

Also, it's really not a formula rather than observations. Got to consider the number of confessionals coupled with the events....There are many factors that come into play. For example, one expects a confessional spike when an event happens: ex. when Cirie was at the core of the emotional challenge IC, and her team responded as they did; when someone finds a HII or an advantage, etc. And, as Corvis did so beautifully, distinguish the types of confessionals if possible....narrational of events, dynamic ~ which speaks to how someone views the game and is coupled with action.

A spike or a dip can be significant even if it's just by one....I suppose you have to consider the numbers that person is getting as their baseline as well. It's a flag when there are changes that are different then their "pattern", if they even have a baseline pattern. They also wax and wane with story arcs...re. Curie and her challenge performance.

And, we have always noted that female winners are edited differently!

And, make no mistake, I am certainly no expert at this whatsoever....it's all just assessment really. Just charting it all to see if we can make any sense of what is going on and if we can use the chart to possibly aid in predicting the winners, end game players.

LAST EDITED ON 05-16-17 AT 08:22 AM (EST)

episode              | I | 1a| 1b| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7b| 8 | 9 | total 
Sarah     Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 22
Cirie     Nuku-tavu  | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 21
Zeke      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 20X
Brad      Nuku-mana  | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3$| 19
Tai       Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 16
Sierra    Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 14
Andrea    Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13
Michaela  Mana-nuku  | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 3 | * | * | 3 | 1 | * | 1 | 13
Aubry     Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12
Troyzan   Mana-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | * | 1 | * | 8 

Boots:

Ciera          Mana  | * | 2 | 2X 
Tony           Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X 
Caleb     Mana-mana  | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6X 
Malcolm   Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9X 
JT        Nuku-nuku  | * | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4*| 11X
Sandra    Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 19X 
Varner    Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17X 
Hali      Mana-mana  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | * | 3 | 9X
Ozzy      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 8X
Debbie    Nuku-mana  | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 20X
Zeke      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 20X  

This week Sarah remains the star of the show riding the middle with 6 confessionals which moves her into the top spot. I have to wonder, is this her final arc? We all know historically where the person in the middle usually ends up.

Her confessionals were: First she commented on her move and this being game changers and hopefully, if she makes it to the end, the jury will reward her for it. Next, was a narrational confessional about the reward, riding in the helicopter and the red carpet treatment. Then, after Cirie poses the topic of possibly getting Zeke out next, she comments on how she does NOT want that to happen, so she tries to garner trust by revealing her secret advantage to Cirie. She prides herself however, with sitting in the middle, it works for her. She will let the plans develop and then do what's best for her. Her fourth confessional was about she trusts Zeke more than the girls, but right now we are sticking with the girls.

Fifth confessional: ust because Andrea has a little bit of power now, she’s talking about taking out Zeke this vote. I am definitely not down for it. I need Zeke for a few more votes, but I really need to keep my mouth shut, because if I start scrambling around and trying to save Zeke, I’m going to get in hot water.

Her final confessional of the game is the final confessional: casts some doubt...Tonight is now about Sierra vs. Zeke. This vote for our alliance is a huge decision because right now it’s 6 to 4. We vote out one of our own it’s 5 to 4. One person flips over and they’ve got the numbers. But, at the same time if I press the issue of keeping Zeke, they are going to think I have an ulterior motive, they are not going to trust me and trust is everything in this game. So, I don’t know what I am going to do. But, I have a feeling that the deciding vote is going to come down to Michaela and me.

The game is being shown to us through Sarah's eyes, and Sarah loves playing the game in the middle. Will it come back to bite her, or is there more to her story?

Four people had 3 confessionals: Our boot was the first. First was on reward, how the nourishment was good and needed for the last part of Survivor. Second: He was nervous because it was eerily quiet at camp, but now he's able to play like he likes to play, plotting and scheming. Final one was that he was locked in with Sarah, cause he trusted her to the end, but needed options, Brad and Troy.

Next 3 that had 3 confessionals were: Brad, Andrea, and Sierra. Brad's first confessional was all about how he had gone from the top to the bottom, terrible shape with the 4. Next, he had a confessional regarding his elation on winning the RC: Walking off I can hardly contain myself, great reward, but more importantly I am with the people that I need to be with from a strategic stand point to change the game. It’s a win/win. Then, his final confessional was a million dollar quote: That’s music to my ears. I made tremendous headway getting in with Zeke. So, in 24 hours I have worked my way up with Zeke, not without effort. It will bother me if I have to vote for Tai or Sierra but make no mistake. I am here to win the game. Brad, is a serious contender this season, I think. He's playing a low key game, he's making the most of the hand he's dealt. His confessionals are dynamic.

Andrea also is giving us good insight. But, she's in Zeke's crosshairs, and she's winning challenges. I am sure that it is not going unnoticed. Her first confessional was in regard to the RC, it's great, but Zeke's bonding with Brad, the odd man out, and it makes her nervous. She will never trust Zeke, she's nervous he's going to go and do something with Culpepper. Her next confessional starts to put Zeke in the crosshairs. Don't want to be the person that throws out names, but don't want to wait too long to make moves. The 6 are staying together for a few votes, so now would be a good time to blindside Zeke. Her final confessional lays out her plan: Now that I have won the challenge, let’s make a bigger move heres. I am safe from the vote, so why not go for someone that’s been coming for me, and that would be Zeke. Initially we were targeting Sierra. It made sense. They had 4, we had 6 so why wouldn’t we just pop one of them off? But, my relationship with Zeke has been so out of control, we went from what I thought was BFF’s to him totally betraying me and now I cannot wait to get him out of this game. I know that he is going to come after me at some point, that ‘s why this plan is so brilliant cause he won’t see it coming.

Next, Sierra also had 3 confessionals as the boot decoy. She tells us about her situation: t was a crappy night, I got no sleep, I’m exhausted, and I am still trying to figure out what the heck happened the other night at tribal. It’s super humbling to be like okay, I’m at the bottom with Brad, Tai, and Troyzan, but hopefully something happens that I can get into the numbers.

She got the confessional of doom after the IC, I am at the bottom of the numbers, I don’t feel safe, I know I am not safe. I am hoping to get back to camp and do something so I can stay just another day longer. Then, her last one, At this moment I am reaching for stars, and I’m gonna do what the girls tell me to do. Tonight I am gonna turn my back on my initial alliance and I am willing at any moment to throw any one of them under the bus.I’m kind of just trying to be patient, and sit back and wait for the word and hope that it’s not me.

She tried to work her way in with the girls but then she voted with Brad and Troyzan. I wonder if she told the girls she was with them? If so, then they will know she lied to them later...Really spells out where Tai was in the hierarchy.

Aubry and Cirie had 2 confessionals each. Aubry: coming back from the reward I felt so famous, like lifestyles of the rich and famous. It was awesome. However, I am a little bit concerned with the fact that Brad and Zeke had time to bond with each other, so I think we need to think very carefully about who we want to take out in the next vote. She validates what Andrea says as well. Next, Zeke’s a really smart player, he’s obviously calculating things many moves down the line, and something you have to do in Survivor, you always have to strike before the other person. Easy to tell who's camp she is in.

Cirie: She gave the cautionary confessional from the seasoned veteran: We took control from Sierra and Brad tonight but in Survivor there is never any rest at all. You have to be like an evil eye, you have to watch everything because if you are not watching (see Brad and Sierra), it just takes a second and the wrong move and the next thing you know you are sitting on the jury. Her second confessional: It would be easy for us to vote out Sierra and go along. Zeke is way more threatening to me than Sierra. He knows this game better than any of us out here and I’ve played 4 times and he knows this game better than I do. Now I have to get Officer Sarah on board but Officer Sarah is real touchy about Zeke, so you gotta handle Officer Sarah very carefully. Cirie is astute and knows that Sarah and Zeke are closer.

Tai and Michaela have 1 confessional. Tai's first confessional was reactionary to going with the majority to finding himself in the minority. This is the first time in playing two seasons that I feel like I am really at the bottom. I am not telling anybody that I do have 2 idols. I don’t want to play it, the longer I have the idols the longer I’ll be in the game. Who knows, if my name come up, I’m gonna play it. This confessional is interesting to me and may be foreshadowing of what is to come. Tai states that if he hears his name come up, he'll play his idols, yet at TC we saw his name come up, and he didn't play the idols. Will he wait too long?

Michaela's confessional casts doubt on the Zeke boot, she trusts him to a degree because she's played with him before. Troyzan is under the radar but he's seen being positive.

I felt that Brad had the best confessionals of the night. We hear him contemplate his new situation, then he gets to work to bond and make a way in, he has a million dollar quote as well declaring he's there to win this game.

It appears that Andrea and Cirie are running the show at this point. Aubry is solidly with them and Michaela is with Cirie; Sarah still playing both sides in the middle. With Sarah and Michaela going with Cirie/Andrea/Aubry, I feel like someone else is doomed from the minority next week. Will Tai play an idol and bounce someone else? Will Troyzan play an idol and bounce someone else? Brad, from confessionals, would be my pick to NOT go. Sierra, she was mentioned last week, will it be her this week?

At risk: Sierra, Andrea, Sarah: They all seem to have good arcs going, could be anyone of them. Andrea is showing that she is a challenge threat, and now she's in control, not a good spot to be in at this point. Sierra, she was mentioned last week, she's in trouble. Sarah riding the middle could perhaps catch up to her?

slight risk: Tai, Troyzan, Brad

LAST EDITED ON 05-17-17 AT 06:43 PM (EST)

episode              | I | 1a| 1b| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7b| 8 | 9 | 10|total 
Sarah     Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 2$| 24
Cirie     Nuku-tavu  | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2$| 23
Brad      Nuku-mana  | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3$| 2 | 21
Michaela  Mana-nuku  | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 3 | * | * | 3 | 1 | * | 1 | 5 | 18
Sierra    Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18X
Tai       Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 17
Andrea    Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15
Aubry     Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | * | 12
Troyzan   Mana-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | * | 1 | * | * | 8 

Boots:

Ciera          Mana  | * | 2 | 2X 
Tony           Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X 
Caleb     Mana-mana  | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6X 
Malcolm   Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9X 
JT        Nuku-nuku  | * | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4*| 11X
Sandra    Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 19X 
Varner    Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17X 
Hali      Mana-mana  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | * | 3 | 9X
Ozzy      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 8X
Debbie    Nuku-mana  | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 20X
Zeke      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 20X
Sierra    Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18X  

This week the star of the show is Michaela. Her confessionals center around how she felt sending Zeke home, one of their own; then how she felt after not getting chosen for the RC, then recruiting Tai and making options for her and Tai. Her confessionals were: TC was a heart breaker, for some reason we all decided to acquiese to Andrea. The majority turning on each other after one vote just means that there is nothing solid in a big group. She clearly plants the blame on Andrea. Her second confessional: I was really pissed off at the RC because they didn’t care about me and my mother. So, I so a huge opportunity to move myself forward in the game. Tai is awesome to work with in the game because he has no one. Her third confessional: I put Tai and me in a wonderful position! Now, we got options, be with the group that votes Andrea or be with the group that votes Brad. And, we’ll come to that decision whenever it’s time to come to that decision. By the end of the day, it’s about what’s good for Michaela and what Michaela is trying to do in this game. Then she talks about how Brad won immunity. They all think it's either Brad or Sierra, but really it's Andrea or Sierra. They all think I'm voting with them, someone's going to be blindsided! And, finally she gets the last confessional before TC: Initially we wanted to get Andrea because she might win everything, but the fact that Sierra has an advantage further convolutes what’s best for right now. Tai and I need to decide which way to go tonight. Sierra is a good person to get rid of, but we would like Andrea gone sooner rather than later. The question is now the best time? It’s a great thing when the decision is in your hands as long as you make the right one. Because, if you make the wrong one you’ll end up on the jury and looking stupid.

So, the question of the hour is did Michaela and Tai make the right decision or the wrong one? Clearly, her arc is under way in a big way. I don't know if she will have the chance to settle down, I feel like she will be at high risk this week. She told Sierra and company she was with them, clearly Tai is with her. I think this will wreck havoc if Brad and Troyzan go to the powers that be, Andrea, with Michaela's antics. We do see Cirie with a quandary in the preview vidcaps. We all know that Brad never liked Michaela to begin with. Will the next episode be Michaela vs. Andrea? Sure would be good for Brad and Troy!

Sierra had 4 confessionals in her final episode.

Brad, Andrea, Cirie, and Sarah all had 2 confessionals. Brad's first confessional is simple narration of events: Brad: I thought myself, Troy, Tai, Sierra were on the bottom and one of us was going home, but come to find out there was a whole plan to get rid of Zeke. See Andrea. But, unfortunately we all put Tai down, so I don’t know if I have Tai anymore.

His second was after the RC, I am very fortunate that my loved one is a former stud Survivor player. She’s a huge resource for me. Michaela was like angry that she was not selected so hopefully Troyzan and Sierra are back at camp trying to convince Michaela to flip into alignment with us otherwise I have to win immunity in order for me to make it another day. He spells out the events from his point of view.

Andrea comments on Michaela after the RC, She was completely defeated but she's smart and knows the game so we will give her a day and she will get over it. (Telling us that she doesn't know Michaela as well as she thinks she does.....will Michaela get the best of her?) Her second confessional was straight narration: Before the challenge we were planning on taking out Brad, and Brad won immunity. So it does kind of limit our choices....

Cirie: She gets right to the point: If the pair of Sierra and Brad stay together long enough, and they can convince enough people to come back to that side, we are back in trouble. So, we got to split that up. Next, she comments on her son, Jarod, he's like her, not an island boy, a city boy, huge to see him open up to this, only thing better would be for me to win the game. (Million Dollar quote?)

Sarah: Her first confessional was after Sierra told her about the legacy idol: Brad and Sierra need to be split up and when she told me about her advantage it actually made me want to keep her now because she’s giving me information and she wants to work with me. So, the door is opening for her to stay in this game and Brad’s game is over. Then, later her tune changes. So, originally I didn’t want to vote Sierra out but Brad won immunity. And, if Sierra goes it is not all bad because Sierra has told me about this Legacy Advantage and that she would will it to me if she leaves. Now, the only trick is I need to confirm that Sierra thinks that I am good with her, to ensure that she gives it to me. I don’t want to vote her out, but this isn’t about making friends this is about winning a million dollars. **** So, now according to Sierra, Tai, and Michaela may vote out Andrea which is news to me. I need them to help me vote Sierra out because I need that advantage.

Sarah gets full credit for switching up the vote from Andrea to Sierra so she can get the legacy advantage. Sarah is able to manipulate the events to what she wants. Now she has two advantages. She's in a GREAT position!

Tai had one confessional. He was blindsided by his core alliance. He was ripe to flip and it was Michaela that connected with him. With 2 idols, he's a good one to connect with! He spells it out: The original five say it’s Sierra but Sierra, Brad and Troy want to vote out Andrea, so I’m weighing my options. Right now I am closest to Michaela. Strategically both groups want us.They both need our numbers.

Aubry and Troyzan: under the radar.

At this point in the show and examining the confessionals I do not see how Troyzan could win. He's found an idol, but done nothing. He's got a positive mindset though, he could get to the end, but definitely, if he does not start winning challenges, he really has no argument. Aubry is also not favored to win. She has had steady low confessionals, but the content of them has mostly been narrational, talking about the events at the time. She is not leading the events, she's going along. She could get to the end as well if the leaders get the boot, but, does she have much of an argument to win?

Regarding the others I do see a case for them.

This week the most at risk for me are Michaela and Andrea. Michaela has a large spike, and now she's recruited Tai. She's putting the target on Andrea's back. Andrea has proven to be a savvy and dangerous competitor, capable of winning immunities. Will she win the next one? If she does and she finds out about Michaela's antics, Michaela could be in trouble.

Andrea got the credit for the Zeke boot. She's winning challenges. They all see it. She is clearly in the cross hairs.

I love that we hear in the preview that Cirie is questioning whether or not she can do something. Sounds like she may turn on either Michaela or Andrea? Can't wait to see who it is!

At this point we are down to 8. Tai has 2 idols, Troy has one, Sarah has a steal a vote and a HII at 6. At this point, I see Sarah, Cirie, Tai as safe. Brad or Troyzan could be the target if they do not win immunity. But, if Brad wins it, will Troy play his idol and bounce someone else?

All kinds of things can happen at this point. Will Tai give one of his idols to Michaela?

High risk: Michaela, Andrea
At risk: Brad, Troy, Aubry(hidden boot candidate and she's a number for Andrea/Cirie),
Safe: Tai, Sarah, Cirie

You really set the table nicely, FP. Thank you for this.

LAST EDITED ON 05-20-17 AT 09:12 AM (EST)

I split this episode into two parts, 11a and 11b.

First up: Episode 11 A

episode              | I | 1a| 1b| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7b| 8 | 9 | 10|11a| total 
Sarah     Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 2$| 1 | 25
Cirie     Nuku-tavu  | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2$| 2 | 25
Brad      Nuku-mana  | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3$| 2 | 1 | 22
Michaela  Mana-nuku  | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 3 | * | * | 3 | 1 | * | 1 | 5 | 1 | 19
Andrea    Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 18X
Tai       Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 17
Aubry     Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 14
Troyzan   Mana-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | * | 1 | * | * | * | 8 

Boots:

Ciera          Mana  | * | 2 | 2X 
Tony           Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X 
Caleb     Mana-mana  | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6X 
Malcolm   Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9X 
JT        Nuku-nuku  | * | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4*| 11X
Sandra    Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 19X 
Varner    Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17X 
Hali      Mana-mana  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | * | 3 | 9X
Ozzy      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 8X
Debbie    Nuku-mana  | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 20X
Zeke      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 20X
Sierra    Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18X
Andrea    Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 18X  

Andrea received the most confessionals of the episode on her boot night. The first one was questioning Sarah, notes she's lied to her, maybe it's time to get her. Then, she notes while Brad and Troyzan have voted for her twice, Sarah is more crafty, and let's get her out before she expects it, tonight. Finally, she notes that she has a great bond with her, she's been with her since day one, but she's pandering to the jury, and to Sierra as she walks out. Andrea, as a leader definitely sets her sites on Sarah. We saw where that got her.

Cirie and Aubry both received 2 confessionals. Aubry, clearly in camp Andrea, tries to talk Andrea off the Sarah ledge, and point the target at Brad. Aubry is very happy with herself and is at a game high with the IC win, and she wants to start her resume with a move that takes out a big player, Brad. I feel really really good! I needed something to start a resume, now, I’m thinking a couple steps ahead and Troyzan is someone that is likeable, but Brad is physically a big threat. So, the time is nigh for Brad Culpepper. Her last confessional: Luckily I have a little solace tonight. It’s really weird to have this feeling. I feel like I can see things a little more clearly. I am not acting on that gut feeling of Sarah because I fully believe it’s time to send Brad home.

Cirie first tells us that she is totally on board with Sarah as she sees her burning a lot of people that go to the jury, and that's fine with her. Laughingly she notes, I’d like to take her to the end and all the people she’s screwed over are sitting right there decide who wins. Her next confessional talks about timing in the game....Andrea is trying to work me like I am a cheap suit. Trying to hint around about Sarah. But, I need Sarah to stay for me to make it further in the game. Every thing out here is about timing and when to make a move. At TC, should Sarah and I get rid of Andrea and drop our numbers down or keep our five strong and go for Brad. Because Brad is just too dangerous to keep around, he wins challenges. It’s a real difficult position to be in but timing is everything.

Sarah, Michaela, and Brad all got one confessional. Michaela's confessional seemed random and odd to me. It was about her knowing that Brad is on the chopping block but wanting him to go fish so she could eat before he goes....Brad is no where to be found because he’s off in the forest so, I volunteered to go find Brad and just make sure that he’s not looking for an idol. And, maybe we should get Brad to go fishing.

Brad's lone confessional was in response to Michaela tracking him down to tell him to go fish: Michaela is trying to be a princess and blackmail me to go fishing for her, but I am not going to sit here and cowtow to some diva’s demands. I just wish there was a way for me to get back into this game and make it another day! I suppose this confessional casts doubt as to Brad's chances...I find it funny that Brad finding a way to get back into the game has NOTHING to do with his game play, but by the whim of others. (At least in this episode).

Sarah had one very long confessional explaining the legacy idol that she got. Last night at tribal taking out Sarah was good, because she told me this legacy advantage if she is voted out she is going to will it to me. So, at TC as her name comes up, I look at her in shock, like>>>>>>>, I can’t believe you are going! And, it worked! (She shows the advantage.) And, Sierra willed me her advantage. She reads it, you have found the legacy advantage....now I have two advantages. The first one is the a steal a vote, which amounts to two votes, and the second one is the legacy. So, game changers, I am shootin’ for the stars here. And, if I had to pick it’s Andrea. Because I can’t stand the girl. However, it’s got to be the right time. She notes it's all about timing as well, sounds like she and Cirie are drinking the same kool-aid.

Episode 11B

episode              | I | 1a| 1b| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7b| 8 | 9 | 10|11a|11b| total 
Cirie     Nuku-tavu  | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2$| 2 | 5 | 30
Sarah     Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 2$| 1 | 1 | 26
Brad      Nuku-mana  | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3$| 2 | 1 | * | 22
Michaela  Mana-nuku  | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 3 | * | * | 3 | 1 | * | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20X
Tai       Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 19
Aubry     Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 16
Troyzan   Mana-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | * | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 9 

Boots:

Ciera          Mana  | * | 2 | 2X 
Tony           Mana  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X 
Caleb     Mana-mana  | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6X 
Malcolm   Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9X 
JT        Nuku-nuku  | * | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4*| 11X
Sandra    Mana-nuku  | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 19X 
Varner    Mana-nuku  | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17X 
Hali      Mana-mana  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | * | 3 | 9X
Ozzy      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 8X
Debbie    Nuku-mana  | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 20X
Zeke      Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 20X
Sierra    Nuku-mana  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18X
Andrea    Nuku-tavu  | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 18X
Michaela  Mana-nuku  | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 3 | * | * | 3 | 1 | * | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 20X  

In the next half of the episode, 11b, Cirie is the star and has a large spike of 5. She has removed Andrea from the game and she does seem to be stepping into the leadership role, in a more subtle way. She thinks she has officer Sarah, and Michaela in her back pocket, but she knows that Aubry is feeling estranged. We sent Andrea to the jury but we still have alot of people in this game that gotta go. Although Aubry is in our group, I can’t trust her that much. She next notes how Tai moves in on the distraught Aubry: What was really bizarre when we came back from Tribal was that Tai immediately runs right to Aubrey’s side. Tai was like Aubry’s husband, and he was consoling her more than anybody else, which was kind of weird to me. Tai works people on their emotional side, and they way he’s working Aubry let’s me know that they are some kind of pair happening. Cirie is an astute observer. Sets her sites on Tai.

After the IC, Cirie gets the confessional of doom: Brad is safe so now we have to recalculate what our next move is going to be and I am ready to take somebody out who is a threat to me. Cirie is plotting her own resume...Cirie's next confessional is as dynamic as they come. She's thinking out loud as to her moves in the game...Sarah is so confident in Tai, that I cannot get her to use her own advantage, she wants to give it to me because she is that confident, but do I play it tonight to save Sarah, but risk Sarah being pissed off to me tonight? I’m from the old school, if you got it, play it. So, I am going to use it, believe that.

So, we see that Cirie wants the target to be on Tai, that Aubry told her Tai is set on getting Sarah. But, Sarah thinks the target should be Aubry. Sarah won't be swayed, so Cirie wants to make booting Tai happen, and she plots to use Sarah's vote steal to do it. She is planning to use the advantage to steal Sarah's vote, because she thinks Sarah plans to vote Aubry. Therefore, she will save Sarah from Tai and company that are targeting Sarah.

Her final confessional continues with her line of thinking....The advantage is that you can steal a person’s vote and utilize that for yourself, which gives you basically an extra vote, however, if we do that it gives the person that we vote for the option to play an idol, and I think that Tai has an idol. I need to get Tai comfortable enough to trust me. I maybe tell Tai about the advantage and I am willing to use it to save him, trying to pull a fast one on him, but I don’t know if he will believe that? DAMN, can I pull that off? I love to hear and see Cirie in action!

This episode was all about the machinations of Cirie. I was so bummed that it was foiled, and now we will have to see Cirie weasel out of it. I'm rooting for her.

Aubry and Tai had 2 confessionals each. Aubry was blindsided, as usual. Her story of woe is that she has really high highs and very low lows. High with winning the IC, low with the Andrea boot that she wasn't privy to. Next, she talks about getting Tai out before he gets her out. I think Tai has been drinking the koolaid, he has to make a big move in this game, but if I want to make a big move in this game I need to get Tai out of here before he gets me out of here or my games over anyway.

Then, Tai's first confessional is him starting to feel that he has to make a big move: I start to feeling that I better show the jury some big moves. And, Sarah’s the dangerous one. It’s scary time, big boy time. And, little Tai needs to gain some confidence. Then, his last confessional is reactionary to what Cirie tells him about how the group wants him out and that she will play her advantage for him. Cirie just told me she has an advantage, and she’s gonna use that vote because everybody’s targeting me right now. Which completely took me by surprise. Is there any reason why she lie to me? Why would she make up this wierd thing? I am completely freaking out. Can I use my idol? Maybe I should, I have two to play with. I don’t know, I am terrified inside.

I couldn't believe that Tai did NOT at least play one idol! I cannot determine whether he's so gullible, or he's just lucky, or if he is stubborn in keeping the idols for F7 and F6...? I loved how when he was talking with Aubry and he suggested Sarah, then Aubry said that you are friends with her, and he replied, "No, I'm not."

Sarah, Michaela, and Troyzan all had 1 confessional. Troyzan's lone confessional was reactionary since Brad won the IC, he'd play his idol if he had to. Michaela's confessional is reactionary to the Cirie plot...Officer Sarah is confused. If she is that confident about Tai, it doesn’t just screw up her game, it screws up my game and Cirri’s game.

Then Sarah's confessional tells us that Sarah is set on Aubry, and she will sway Cirie over with allowing her to hold her advantage so Cirie will trust her. For whatever reason Cirie wants to believe everything that is coming out of Aubry’s mouth. So, I am going to give Cirie my advantage of Steal a vote now if this doesn’t scream loyal, I don’t know what does. Seems like the plan back fired tremendously. Michaela was right, Officer Sara screwed up her game!

So, where are we now? Sarah's biggest target apparently was Aubry, and Aubry is still in the game. While Brad didn't have a confessional his presence was known, especially when he carried on at the IC challenge that he won.

In the preview promo we see that Tai is trusting the guys, Brad and Troyzan. But, they have thrown him under the bus repeatedly, shown him where he is in their hierarchy. We see that he is planning something with his idols. Then, we hear Brad say that he will have no problem voting him out, or something like that. Makes it seem as though Tai is doomed.

So here is where we are:

Cirie has a big spike, she's at risk, but Cirie is capable of spinning it someway to save herself...will she do it?

Aubry: marked by Sarah, not a good position to be in, but the girls may need her...

Tai: Cirie wants him out, suspects he has idols. Apparently Brad could be on board as per the previews.

Troyzan: Safe for now with idol.
Brad: While the biggest competitor left in the game, Brad may be safe, as Andrea and Michaela are gone?
Sarah: Tai is gunning for Sarah, but I think Sarah is in good with Brad and Troy. Remember in the beginning of the season she came to Troy and said that they were good with each other? I suspect these three are more bound to each other than we are seeing. Alliances revealed, and all that? She has the legacy advantage at 6. She has been with Cirie the entire game as well.