Ok, here is my theory for next episode, this is without possible spoilers that may be revealed later in the week.......*Jerri has been focused on primarily in the previews. Everyone seems to be either lying or talking about her behind her back, which leads me to the conclusion that Mark Burnett wants us to have suspense over "When Will Jerri Go?". It is most likely not next week, because she will most likely win immunity.
*Nick or Alicia will go, because the two just seem to be "outsiders" based on the short promo and it was kinda easy to pick them out in the preview. Liz was talking with Tina and Keith and it looked like they were whispering, and I don't think they'll vote Rodger.
*My Pick = Nick....Liz will try to side with Ogakor in a strategy move, and she'd vote Nick before she voted Alicia.
I agree that Nick or Alicia is gone next week. It's kind of tough to go one way or the other... let's look at the reasoning:Ogakor set Kucha up to target Colby, who was smart enough to let them target him. Jerri was smart enough to not fight with Keith, and Tina was smart enough to give Keith the IC win. Ogakor are smart cookies. What I'm trying to say, which is pretty obvious to all posters, is that Ogakor is smart enough to take out at least one more Kuchie before turning on themselves. Evening tribes up = bad move. So, a Kucha is the target. Duh.
Obviously, IC could be a wild card. Putting that aside right now in hopes of some indicative spoiler later in the week, we have to look at what Ogakor as a group and as individuals are thinking.
If they're really smart enough to consistently plot like they did this episode, with their supremacy established each member is already starting to think about the endgame. (ok, not Amber, but she's following Jerri, which is good enough.) C, T, +K have to realize that Jerri and Amber may try to pull one or two Kucha in to avoid finishing 4th and 5th, and Jerri and Amber have to realize that C + T + K are going to try to make that last kucha one who will stick with them to the final four.
Who would they want with them? Jerri might be hopeful that Liz could become Amber 2. She's perky, she's the same age, right? Liz is also not a huge IC threat, at least not relative to Alicia or Nick. K, T, C may want Rodger. He is the least likely to get along with Jerri at all, and he's again a relatively weak IC threat. There may be some feints and such by various O crew members, but I'd guess that they're going to pick on one of the two left, Alicia and Nick, who are both stronger IC threats and not as clearly going to side with the other. Or you can ignore that whole paragraph and just assume they go after the strong IC threats, Alicia and Nick.
So it comes to Alicia or Nick. Since by the 8th ejection the tribe dynamics will really start to change as the O's may start targeting each other, that cutesy "Go Kucha!" message Alicia scrawled in that NYC article is the only thing I've seen that indicates to me she's going next.
My pick as we start off this week of speculation: Alicia.
So are you saying Jerri is the most vulnerable? If so, why would Ogakor hit her next and not a Kucha? That would give Kucha momentum and possibly the advantage. Most of Ogakor can't afford a 4-4 tie and certainly doesn't want to be at a disadvantage again. Jerri has to be concerned she doesn't get votes, yes, but Kucha knows Keith and Colby have votes, so she should feel a lot better right now.Unless Ogakor is stupid, and I guess it could happen after Kucha blew their advantage, a Kucha has to go in E8. Nick and Alicia fit the bill the best.
Colby's ruse is out of the bag now and the Kuchas hate him for it. Keith has votes and the Kuchas know this. Those two are the most vulnerable so if they try to come over to Kucha, I question that Kucha agrees for any length of time. It will put that person low on the totem pole so they know they have to try a coup at some time against people without votes. That requires the vote to be decisive and not a tie breaker.
But I do think defectors will happen in E9 for sure. It's the best timing to get Jerri, and for Jerri to protect herself. It's also good for Colby and Keith for protection. Amber and Tina are safe in any large number so it depends on votes and immunity.
But Ogakor knows Tina and Amber have no votes so Jerri, Colby, and Keith have them on their mind for sometime in the future. This could force them to move when a tie breaker would surface again.