AyaK brought up that Varner has spilled on many pre-game alliances. I have heard of a few as well. I heard of them BEFORE the DAWS were even sent to Cambodia. Let's see if we can list them all and how and if they can predict the game.

• Varner,Flowerpower1, 07:56 PM, 10-23-15
  • RE: Varner,Sheldor, 08:13 AM, 10-24-15
    • RE: Varner,Flowerpower1, 12:37 PM, 10-24-15
• Pre-Game Season Alliances,Sheldor, 08:48 AM, 10-24-15
  • RE: Pre-Game Season Alliances,Jims03, 01:22 PM, 10-24-15
    • RE: Pre-Game Season Alliances,Flowerpower1, 05:36 PM, 10-24-15
      • RE: Pre-Game Season Alliances,Sheldor, 07:42 PM, 10-29-15
• RE: Pre-Game ALLIANCES...,tribephyl, 02:33 PM, 10-24-15
• Post episode 6,Flowerpower1, 05:01 PM, 10-29-15
  • RE: Post episode 6,Jims03, 07:21 PM, 10-29-15
    • RE: Post episode 6,Georganna, 05:47 AM, 10-30-15

Varner and Shane revealed, before the game, that they had a solid 5 person alliance. It included Varner/Shane/Terry/Vytas/Wiglesworth.

Now Shane did not make it into the show. We know that Varner screwed over Vytas right off the bat. But, Varner was very tied to Terry and Wigle.

Now, Varner was also tied to Kimmi. We saw this when they went to the IC and lost and he tried to give Wigle a message. Get with Kimmi and Monica, because according to Varner, Kimmi told him at that same challenge that don't trust Savage, he will tell everything he knows. So Varner did just that and Andrew told him of the hierarchy at old Bayon. He told him that the 4 on the bottom were Stephen, Monica, Kimmi and Kass/Ciera?.

So, I think this made an impact on the episode that we just had. Kimmi had really NO reason, that I could see for voting out Monica. I suspect Kimmi had to have been aligned with Wigle before the game?

I listened to RHAP today with Monica. She stated that she was aligned IN THE GAME with Kimmi, her number one, Stephen, Jeremy, and Keith.
~It made no real sense to me that Kimmi was so out to turn on Monica. Monica just mentioned the girl alliance, because she trusted Kimmi and when they shot it down, she was solid...

Monica had a PRE-GAME alliance with: Tbird, Kelley Wentworth, Michaela, and Pieh Gee. She didn't get with any of them.

Varner also he had a separate pre-game alliance with:
Kelley Wentworth, Shirin, Spencer and Peih-Gee

Varner also he had a separate pre-game alliance with:
Kelley Wentworth, Shirin, Spencer and Peih-Gee

From listening to the podcast, I got the impression that when in the game, he formed the alliance with Kelley Wentworth, Shirin, Spencer, and Peih-Gee. In other words I didn't think that alliance was made pre-game?

It is interesting that the Cagayan 4 (Kass, Spencer, Tasha, Woo) and the San Juan del Sur 3 (Jeremy, Keith, Kelley) are ALL still in the game!

The other 8 have no one left from their season or their family-tie season...

• BvW/Panama: Vytas (via Aras), Terry
  
• Worlds Apart: Shirin, Joe
  
• Outback: Varner, Kimmi
  
• Samoa/BvW: Monica (via Laura), Ciera

8 Players with no one from their season (or family tie) left:

1. Borneo: Kelly
   
2. Outback: Kimmi
   
3. Pearl Islands: Andrew
   
4. Panama: Terry
   
5. Tocantins: Stephen
   
6. Philippines: Abi-Maria
   
7. Blood vs Water: Ciera
   
8. Worlds Apart: Joe

LAST EDITED ON 10-24-15 AT 01:31 PM (EST)

In addition to the above analysis, it's much more likely that Spencer/Tasha have an unspoken agreement based on last time, as well as Jeremy/Kelley. I remember there was a decent amount of razzing over the Super Bowl between Jeremy's Patriots and the Wentworths' Seahawks, so you can assume they're still pretty friendly. Kass & Woo might still have something going on too. It's hard to tell where Kass fits in with that group because there are stories of the Brains all going to the same event (J'Tia's wedding) but Spencer/Tasha not wanting to sit with Kass. The story came from Kass, who loves to be coy with people, so who knows if she's just messing with us.

I think we should probably factor in who probably knows each other as well. Just from the RHAP community, we know Spencer debated Jeremy (along with Tony) in the Mr. Survivor interviews, and Tasha debated Kelley (along with Natalie A). Stephen Fishbach is really active in that community too, so it would pretty surprising if he didn't have some level of familiarity with them as well. He says people just assume that he knows people (and it hurts his game) but it still factors into who he would be more likely to gravitate toward. I know Kass has done recaps and have hung out in chat rooms as well. Abi-Maria was a guest panelist on Rob's roast, so she might know some of the RHAP regulars too.

Speaking of Abi, she's one of the Los Angeles area Survivors. I wouldn't be surprised if people who lived near each other talked a little. Shirin and Andrew Savage both work for Yahoo, for example. I think Joe lives in California, if I recall. Maybe Woo as well? Stephen is from the New York wine and cheese crowd but none of them were really in it this season. People like Kimmi, Keith, Tasha, and Spencer all live in the Midwest, if I recall, so they probably didn't have any face-to-face meetings.

LAST EDITED ON 10-24-15 AT 05:37 PM (EST)

I have been reluctant to discuss this, but I did hear of a pre-game alliance outside of the RHAP community. I heard that Spencer, Jeremy, Tasha were a solid pre-game alliance. I heard this before they were even picked. I think Tasha and Spencer were the keys to it, from their season.

Now, looking back on it, it really makes sense. Spencer is drawn to Jeremy like a moth to a flame, and you would have thought it would have been that way with him and Stephen.

(I have also heard through the grapevine that Shirin is the source for a lot of what is leaked this season. FYI. Can't substantiate that claim in any way!)

That's not all that surprising considering Jeremy and Spencer were both competing for RHAP Mr. Survivor 2015 (won by Spencer) and Tasha competed for Miss Survivor 2015 along with Kelley Wentworth (won by Natalie Anderson).

Wanted to transfer the align/malign lists compiled from GordonHolmes interviews as the contestants were off to begin their adventures.

I took the liberty of listing each players "Align" propositions, then cross referencing those that were 'aligned' in return, etc.
I have stricken the names of those who did not receive mutual alignments and bolded those that did.

Abi
Align: Jeremy, Kelly, Savage, Shirin, Tasha, Varner, Vytas, Woo

Ciera
Align: Kass, Kelley, Kelly, PeihGee, Shirin, Spencer, Stephen, Tasha

Jeremy
Align: Abi, Joe, Kass, Kelly, Savage, Spencer, Terry, Woo

Joe
Align: Abi, Ciera, Jeremy, Keith, Savage, Terry, Vytas, Woo

Kass
Align: Abi, Keith, Kimmi, Savage, Shirin, Stephen, Terry, Varner

Keith
Align: Jeremy, Joe, Kelley, Kelly, Monica, Spencer, Terry, Vytas

Kelley
Align: Ciera, Keith, Monica, Shirin, Spencer, Stephen, Tasha, Terry

Kelly
Align: Joe, Keith, PeihGee, Savage, Spencer, Terry, Varner, Vytas

Kimmi
Align: Abi, Joe, Kelly, Monica, Terry, Savage, Varner, Vytas

Monica
Align: Keith, Kelley, Kimmi, PeihGee, Shirin, Stephen, Varner, Vytas

PeihGee
Align: Abi, Keith, Kelly, Monica, Spencer, Stephen, Terry, Woo

Savage
Align: Abi, Jeremy, Joe, Keith, Kelley, Kelly, Shirin, Woo

Shirin
Align: Abi, Keith, Kelley, Monica, PeihGee, Spencer, Stephen, Varner

Spencer
Align: Ciera, Kelley, PeihGee, Savage, Shirin, Stephen, Tasha, Varner

Stephen
Align: Abi, Joe, Kelley, Monica, Shirin, Spencer, Terry, Vytas

Tasha
Align: Ciera, Jeremy, Kelly, Monica, Spencer, Stephen, Terry, Vytas

Terry
Align: Kass, Vytas, PeihGee, Keith, Kelley, Savage, Spencer, Varner

Varner
Align: Abi, Ciera, Joe, Kelley, Kelly, Shirin, Terry, Vytas

Vytas
Align: Abi, Ciera, Joe, Kelly, Keith, Stephen, Terry, Woo

Woo
Align: Ciera, Kass, Kelley, Kelly, Savage, Stephen, Terry, Vytas

Well, I wanted to put Abi Maria in here with Kass. WE all watched the finale of San Juan del Sur and we all saw how over the top Abi and Kass were with each other during the finale. These two are definitely in cahoots, whether it's been mentioned or not. Abi was definitely "with" Kass as soon as they were on the same beach. She's seemingly more with Kass than she was with Andrew, who she's weathered many episodes with.

While the editors gave the blame for booting Woo to Ciera, who wasn't willing to have her name thrown in the mix, and to Kass, who orchestrated it all with Spencer. I feel that Abi had far more to do with it than was shown.

Abi HATED WOO. Woo was her target. She was close with Andrew. I feel that Woo went to appease Abi. I think Abi had a pre-game alliance with Kass.

Yeah, next week is going to be fun with the Kass-Abi-Tasha-Spencer square. A lot of pre-game and in-game contradictions.

Kass/Abi was probably a thing and Tasha/Spencer was probably a thing. Abi made a deal with Tasha back at Angkor, however. She made one with Savage too, but I get the sense that Tasha was Abi's true link to the alliance.

Both Spencer and Abi have ties to Kass now and are both players who would probably want to work with Tasha. But I get the sense from the Cagayan days and their feuding and stuff that Tasha doesn't want anything to do with Kass. Tasha is tight with Savage in-game, too. Is Tasha going to try to pull Abi and Spencer away from Kass? Or will Abi and Kass be able to pull Tasha's crew back in with some damage control?

Or are everyone just Bayon strong still and it doesn't matter?

Or are everyone just Bayon strong still and it doesn't matter?

On down the Season ...

Assuming that the Jury does begin at F13 and there is a Final Three, there is no scenario that doesn't place a majority of original Bayon on the panel. At most, 9 - 1. At least, 6 - 4.

So, unless the F3 is composed of three of the four original Ta Keo left in the Game, if Bayon Strong proves to be a fact and not just a slogan, neither Spencer, Abi-Maria, Kelley nor Kelly could possibly win the Game.

But I suspect, slogan ...

Question: Has there ever been a Final Tribal Council vote that was split precisely along original tribal lines?