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Original Message
"I have a possible bootlist spoiler"

Posted by Outsider32 on 10-15-15 at 00:38 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-15-15 AT 00:46 AM (EST)

Its over at the big board. Go to the thread in spoilers titled "Mostly Accurate Bootlist"

And after tonight's vote, it just might actually be right, It was originally started in September and people rebuffing it.


Table of contents

Messages in this discussion
"Here is what the bootlist said"
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-15-15 at 00:46 AM

20.Vytas
19.Shirin
18.PG
17.Jeff
16.Monica
15.Terry(quit)
14.Woo

Merge(mostly accurate)
13.Kass
12.Stephen
11.Kelly
10.Ciera
9.Savage
8.Joe
7.Keith
6.Abi(fv)
5.Kimmi(fv)
4.Kelley(fv)

Final Three
Spencer
Tasha
Jeremy(winner)

This is what I found from a thread titled "Mostly Accurate Bootlist" in the Survivor Spoilers Section there on the Big Board. If nobody know what site I mean by Big Board, I will pm you what it means.


"RE: I have a possible bootlist spoiler"
Posted by tribephyl on 10-15-15 at 01:36 AM
As a reminder, 1. You can call it Sucks. No need for 'big board' secrecy. 2. the mod at Sucks had this to add to the topic, yesterday;
THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THIS LIST IS REAL. DO NOT PUT ANY STOCK IN IT.

"RE: I have a possible bootlist spoiler"
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-15-15 at 02:04 AM
Yes I read that. For a moment I thought you were him lol.

The thing is one of the boots already happened tonight and he made that post about not paying much attention before tonight. It's just too coincidental for Varner to be the fourth boot and on top of the fact his edit was so big he could not have possibly gone this early.

I don't know what to believe and my edit analysis has Kelley winning over Tasha.


"RE: I have a possible bootlist spoiler"
Posted by Georganna on 10-15-15 at 02:12 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-15-15 AT 02:37 PM (EST)

I agree.

Anti's post was made at 9:11 - Central - last night. Before the Episode's conclusion on the East Coast.

So, if Monica, Terry and Woo do, in fact, go next (and in that order), then the question becomes just how accurate mostly is ...

ETA: The list was originally posted on September 28th. Prior to the broadcasts of Shirin's, Peih-Gee's and Jeff's boots. However, earlier today, Anti was still holding his ground. Sort of.



"RE: I have a possible bootlist spoiler"
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-15-15 at 06:29 PM
It's probably because of all the fake spoilers being posted on there in the past two seasons or so and when Look Closer basically provided a Kass finalist spoiler which more likely imo was the belief it was a final 3.

"Or maybe ... "
Posted by Georganna on 10-15-15 at 11:01 PM
Anti has made the same salient observation that this SS contributor makes:

Indeed! Why would it be?


"RE: Or maybe ... "
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-16-15 at 03:08 AM
I mean from Cagayan, when he said Kass was a finalist but finished 3rd place.

"RE: Or maybe ... "
Posted by Georganna on 10-16-15 at 03:28 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-16-15 AT 09:32 PM (EST)

I know.

I was just trying to say (obviously, not well) that perhaps Anti had come to the same question/conclusion that the author of the post that I linked came to:

That, if the source of the bootlist truly was a Juror (a post-merge player and Ponderosa resident present at every post-merge Tribal Council), any inaccuracy in the order in which the Jurors were booted from the Game and/or arrived at Ponderosa would make no sense.

Unless the source was awfully forgetful after-the-fact. Or awfully drunk during the process ...


"RE: Or maybe ... "
Posted by Georganna on 10-22-15 at 09:15 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-22-15 AT 09:24 AM (EST)

Well ...

Whether drunk or sober, the source is now six for six (including Terry's impending withdrawal). And given the second Tribal re-alignment (spoiled by Inside Survivor) at/in this next - Final 14 - Episode, it isn't difficult to imagine that Woo - without an honest ally but a very honest post-merge Individual Immunity threat - will be its one and only victim. And that the list will remain intact into the Jury stage of the Game.

To me, unfortunately. I enjoy watching Woo enjoy the Game.

G


"RE: Or maybe ... "
Posted by Georganna on 10-22-15 at 10:14 AM
One more thought, Outsider ...

I know that you think that Kelley wins this Game. But I wonder - given the sympathy that Terry's family emergency is most certainly going to evoke from the audience - if we would have seen her now several kicking Terry under the bus moments if she was, indeed, Cambodia's Sole Survivor?

G


"RE: Or maybe ... "
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-22-15 at 08:59 PM
I have her winning because she is getting unnecessary confessionals in every episode. A female that gets that and always talking about her game is very reminiscent of Denise in Philippines. Denise was showcased every week with confessionals early on and with the right medium of them too. Not too much. She did kick Terry under the bus but if she didn't, she would be the one targeted. However, I get the sense she will be responsible for Kass's boot more than Tasha(that birthday gift forshadowing scene) but if Kelley, Spencer, and Tasha are all in the final 3, then the jurors are probably going to hate all of them and not want to give the money mostly to Spencer and Tasha for egotistic reasons. Kelley is the lesser of three evils there. I had Jeremy as my winner pick in the first two episodes.

On the contrary, that giftgiving scene in Kass's redemption edit did not have to be shown. It may forshadow Kass will vote for Kelley and her vote will decide the game? She will not vote for the other two.

And it should be known I should not be given credit if Kelley wins, I have simply read into Ghostie Home's analysis of players edits and he is picking Kelley to win this season. This is not a spoiler he simply has some knack for picking winners as he has picked the last two. He also got Derrick right for BB and said Vanessa would not win if he does not own up to her game. She never even got a chance. Kelley was among my top three and my favorite from TaKeo after the first episode.

However, Jeremy's getting a strong edit too which makes me believe their season boils down to the F4 IC and they will not take each other. But Ghostie did say that they waited until the second episode to showcase Jeremy's emotional side and he wrote him off before that episode. I think it's possible his mistake(if it is) and the bootlist coming out is forcing him to be on the defensive and if Kelley loses he will probably come up with an excuse for why she lost.


"RE: Or maybe ... "
Posted by Georganna on 10-23-15 at 11:17 PM
Thank you, Outsider ...

While I don't know a thing about Ghostie Home, I do know that you are much better at dissecting an edit than I am. And I think that you've made a very articulate - and convincing - argument in support of your opinion that Kelley is this Season's winner.

But, because I just can't get past the emphasis that her edit has placed on her concerted effort to oust a very sympathetic Terry from the Game - and because I do think that a Fire native (rather than an Air native) will be Cambodia's Sole Survivor - I think that of the two Jeremy is the more likely to win the Game.

And I'll probably live to regret that thought ...

G


"RE: I have a possible bootlist spoiler"
Posted by tribephyl on 10-16-15 at 00:30 AM
His reminder is also addended by another nod to a 'source' known as UncleCameraman, who gave their 'boot-list' approximately 4 boots in (during Outback) with Nick and Varner to come. It played well for awhile, even guessing that Varner would be ousted due to a tie vote, but ran into trouble when Colby is booted (over Jerri), Tina goes next for being unusable and the finalists ended up being ... NOT ... Colby and Tina.
The moral being... if a juror is the source, then there would be NO reason for doubt as to placement of the jurors. Which is more in tune with what the OP was implying.
I believe, if anything, the source is a non-juror. Yet, even more likely, it's a lucky guesser.
However, considering that the source might be from a pre-merger castaway, we could even have 4 more boots, in order, before things go horribly astray.
But from there on out? I dunno. This is usually the time they all go astray.
THAT, I believe, is all Anti is saying.
Remember the past or you are doomed to repeat it.


"RE: I have a possible bootlist spoiler"
Posted by Georganna on 10-23-15 at 11:26 PM
And now there is this from Antithesys.

"And ... ... "
Posted by Georganna on 10-24-15 at 00:08 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-24-15 AT 00:31 AM (EST)

Then there is this:

by soapcraze

And this:

by nostalgicfor05

Mindful that any response would be rather like tryin' to put out Hell by spittin' on the flames (Credit: My Maternal Grandfather), my first impulse was to ignore this.

My second, however, was to acknowledge the integrity that is demonstrated by those within the spoiling community who make the effort to verify assertions made without any link to the proof of their validity:

I do not know the identity of the author - or of the source - of this BootList. Nor have I ever, in any venue or by any method, said that I do.

Georgianna


"RE: And ... ... "
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-24-15 at 01:35 AM
Georgiana I am soapcraze. I apologize for that I thought it was you that said that but it was another poster. I do know something was said along the lines that Shirin was responsible for the bootlist because she had loose lips. I'll have to revisit who posted it either here or the well known spoiler thread.

"RE: And ... ... "
Posted by Georganna on 10-24-15 at 02:14 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-24-15 AT 08:35 PM (EST)

When I noticed that your reply to me, here, was posted just eight minutes after the soapcraze post was made to the SS board, I thought that they might have been made by the same person ...

I do, of course, accept your apology. Now, though, I would appreciate it very much - if you haven't already done so - if you would post a correction of your earlier post in the SS Forum. And you might offer an apology to nostalgicfor05, too.

That said, I truly mean this next to be helpful:

It will spare you and other posters a great deal of annoyance - and unnecessary effort - if you will only follow a very basic standard of fair play:

If you can't link it. Don't use it.

G


"Good Grief!"
Posted by Georganna on 10-24-15 at 03:10 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-24-15 AT 03:34 AM (EST)

I just read your post to the SS Board in which you now claim/suggest that FlowerPower said that she knew the identity of the BootList source.

And, in the Blows thread that you referenced - but did not link - she did not.

In fact, she wasn't even referring to the source of the BootList at all. Her comment was an observation about Redmond's source for his very accurate predictions of Cambodia's tribal divisions.

FlowerPower:

Redmond has been spot on with the tribes, and their divisions. I have heard that some speculate that Shirin was his source. I have heard from other sources that she does have loose lips. Regardless, let's put this on a time line ...

And if, at the very least, you had quoted her, then you - and all of your fellow Board members at SS - would have known that.

The fact is, Outsider, that to the best of my knowledge (and I read this Board very thoroughly), no poster at Blows has even so much as hinted, here, that he | she knows the identity of the source of the BootList.

And until you are able to link and quote the post in which this occurred, it is my humble opinion that you really ought to stop saying that it has.

G


"RE: Good Grief!"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 10-24-15 at 08:15 PM
Yes, Outsider... I have mentioned in the past that you really need to link to posts.

Please do not quote other posters from now on without a direct link.

If you do not know how to link to posts, click on "Reply With Quote" after Georganna's posts above to see how it's done.

It is rather unfair to posters here (and in that other place) to be claiming they said something then not linking to it and forcing posters to search high and low for non-existent posts before realizing you were inaccurate with your statements. Thank you.


"RE: Good Grief!"
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-24-15 at 09:54 PM
So you mean I have to let people here know if I mention their name in a post? I was only talking about where I read FP say she heard who the source was. I was not blaming her.

"RE: Good Grief!"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 10-25-15 at 03:00 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-25-15 AT 03:11 PM (EST)

No, that is not what I asked. I asked that you link to their posts if you are claiming that they said something, so that readers of your post will know where to go to see what discussion is emanating from that original poster's posting. The tone and nuance is very important in helping determine validity and it's also called giving credit.

Problem is that your posts were vague and included incorrect information, making it even more important to link to what the poster said so that the correct info can go out. Now you've got people on another site saying so and so said this, and when the info goes bad later on in the season, who do you think they're going to blame? The poster that you posted as having said certain info, when they actually didn't.

If you ever went to college, you know the importance of crediting a source.

Re:
I was only talking about where I read FP say she heard who the source was.

Problem was that the original information was incorrect and you had posters replying to you, "Can you link to where she said that? I searched and I could not find her saying that." You could have saved these people a ton of time by simply linking to the post, no need to let G or FP know that you were sharing their info.


"RE: Good Grief!"
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-24-15 at 09:50 PM
Idk, some people at Sucks are not that good with getting information. I was trying to be informative. And I did not imply Flowerpower knew anything, I was implying she posted about who she heard the source was from.

"RE: Good Grief!"
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-24-15 at 10:04 PM
>LAST EDITED ON 10-24-15
>AT 03:34 AM (EST)

>
>
>
>I just read your post to
>the SS Board in which
>you now claim/suggest that FlowerPower
>said that she knew the
>identity of the BootList source.
>
>
>And, in the Blows thread that
>you referenced - but did
>not link - she
>did not.

>
>In fact, she wasn't even referring
>to the source of the
>BootList at all. Her
>comment was an observation about
>Redmond's source for his very
>accurate predictions of Cambodia's tribal
>divisions.
>
>FlowerPower:
>
>Redmond has been spot on with
>the tribes, and their divisions.
>I have heard that some
>speculate that Shirin was his
>source. I have heard from
>other sources that she does
>have loose lips. Regardless, let's
>put this on a time
>line ...

>
>And if, at the very least,
>you had quoted her, then
>you - and all of
>your fellow Board members at
>SS - would have known
>that.
>
>The fact is, Outsider, that to
>the best of my knowledge
>(and I read this Board
>very thoroughly), no poster at
>Blows has even so much
>as hinted, here, that he
>| she knows the identity
>of the source of the
>BootList.
>
>And until you are able to
>link and quote the post
>in which this occurred, it
>is my humble opinion that
>you really ought to stop
>saying that it has.
>
>G
>
>
>
>

Okay I see what happened. Apparently I got confused between the bootlist and the medevac. Shirin knew about the medevac. Nvm.

Btw I don't like to apologize to anyone on Sucks and if POLO saw that and responded well I'm not gonna go see that page.


"RE: Good Grief!"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 10-25-15 at 03:13 PM
>Btw I don't like to apologize to anyone on Sucks and
>if POLO saw that and responded well I'm not gonna go
>see that page.

So that's your reason for not being a man and standing up for what's right? All the more reason to link to posts and be sure that you have the correct info in the first place.


"RE: Good Grief!"
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-24-15 at 10:10 PM
I just cleared it up. I will not be sharing any more information from Blows.

"RE: Good Grief!"
Posted by Georganna on 10-25-15 at 00:00 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-25-15 AT 03:27 PM (EST)


Outsider ...

Please, just slow down.

This is a public message board. There is no expectation of privacy. We all post with the understanding that whatever we say may be shared across many platforms. It is perfectly acceptable to link our posts and/or to quote us. But, as a matter of common courtesy, we do all expect that if we are quoted, we will be quoted accurately. And the most efficient way to make certain that you are quoting what someone else said - accurately - is to link his/her post in your message.

Now, I don't post at SS. So I have no idea what sort of coding their software supports. But here, anytime you post a new message or reply to one, you can simply click on the HTML Reference (in black) at the top of the message form and a window will pop up that will guide you through the steps necessary to construct the most-used codes on this Board.

And, it isn't necessary to embed a link as I do (although the instructions for creating that code are right there in the pop-up window). You can also copy and paste the raw URL into your post. However, if you want to link a particular post within a thread, you'll need to go to the index of posts at the beginning of the thread and click on the post that you wish to link. Then, once in the post, just go to the top of the page and copy the URL for that individual post.

And I've said slow down because, even though I linked FP's post, and quoted her directly, and told you specifically that she was referring to Redmond's accurate spoiling of Cambodia's tribal divisions/switches in her post, you are now, somehow, mistakenly under the impression that she was referring to Terry's evacuation. She wasn't.

However, I do understand that life at SS isn't always easy, so I'll certainly have no more to say to you about the matter. I do think that you've made a good-faith effort clear things up. Thank you.

But, I am not FP. And I certainly don't speak for her. Nor do I have any idea whether she would be at all concerned about any of this. However, if you decide that you should speak to her about it, I will note that I have always found her to be gracious.

ETA: If it is more comfortable and/or practical for you to simply not share information from this Board in your postings to SS than it would be to always link the posts here - and/or to quote the posters here accurately - I would understand.

G


"RE: Good Grief!"
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-27-15 at 10:13 PM
No problem. Like I said I was only trying to be informative, but its all good.

"RE: Good Grief!"
Posted by Georganna on 10-28-15 at 00:18 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-28-15 AT 06:03 AM (EST)


Outsider,


I'm glad to hear that it's all good.

Because, if you haven't yet noticed, I've included the BootList Spoiler in a new thread that I've begun that I hope will eventually include all of the new - or still outstanding - Source Spoilers for the remainder of the Season.

I thought it deserved a fresh, uncluttered, start.

So, if you'd like to post any new comments that you might have regarding the BootList to that thread, they would certainly be welcome there.

But please read the request that I've made regarding the reproduction of the BootList - carefully - before you post.

Thanks,


"RE: Good Grief!"
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-28-15 at 09:45 PM
I saw that.

"Regarding the editing thread"
Posted by Jims03 on 10-16-15 at 08:27 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-16-15 AT 08:37 PM (EST)

This is only tangentially related to this, but I don't know where else to put it, since I can't call out Outsider32 in the editing thread (for obvious reasons).

But michel said that he has been avoiding Sucks because of their policy of using spoiler info in their speculation and editing threads. This is actually how I accidentally got spoiled because I was poking around there, not knowing that they factor in the spoilers to their analysis. I am very well aware that Jeremy, Tasha, Spencer, Kelley, and Kimmi all lost a ton of weight and are a majority of our endgamers.

The thing is, can we not just itemize the entire list in the editing thread, spelling the entire thing out to him?

Look at this garbage from that thread.

So now with my new updated outlooks
Endgame
Tasha
Kelley
Spencer
Jeremy
Kimmi/Monica
Keith

The Pickoffs at Mid Merge
Kelly
Kimmi/Monica/Ciera

The Major Confessional Stealer Boots
Stephen
Jeff

Jeff's Preceding Boot and Editing Handcuff
Abi

The First Targets
Joe
Kass

The Rest out Pre-Merge
Terry
Savage
Woo
Ciera/Monica

Looking at Kimmi's practically invisible edit, saying that you interpret it as her being the invisible endgamer, WHEN YOU KNOW IN ADVANCE THAT SHE LOST ALL THAT WEIGHT, is super obnoxious. You say, "It's really not that hard" to him? Well, of course it's not that hard. Anybody with a keyboard could come up with those same conclusions this season. You're coming to the editing conclusions already pretty much knowing the answer in advance. For people who are spoiled, the editing thread only serves to try to narrow down the winner from that small list. We don't even need to look at Woo's edit.

But michel is trying to do the thing fresh. Flowerpower has read the spoilers (I believe) but is still giving a well-rounded and open-ended analysis. It's not fair to just dump all the right answers on him when he's trying to put in an honest effort.

There isn't really much that can be done about it now (since the post has already been made and editing would look sketchy), but I had to say something. This is ridiculous.


"RE: Regarding the editing thread"
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-17-15 at 10:32 PM
Jim, I know weight loss spoilers but the editing in how I have studied it in the past is pretty clear. Sorry to say editing gives away the main players at the end. It gave Carolyn and Will away last year two episodes in. And the season before it gave away Missy and Keith.

I did not base my analysis on weight loss, and Kass has even lost weight herself. CBS wants to get the viewers invested in a player that is long for the game. I never understood any of this editing stuff until I returned to watching the show after a almost 3 year hiatus. I saw the edgic thread on Sucks and learned it forshadows who goes far. So I started picking up on who CBS wants us to notice and who they want us to get enough of because they are not going all the way if they aren't winning.

And if this spoiler is even correct, Keith is not endgame.

If you pay attention to this, Kelley, Spencer, Jeremy, and Tasha have clearly been the main strategically emphasized in terms of long term story without being on too much or going beyond talking about their game. If Kimmi had gotten more confessionals, I wouldn't have put her at the end.

Also, you may have noticed I debated changing Kimmi to Monica.

And besides, this is embarrassing because people that don't like spoilers will not even read this thread or even think my editing is prophecy.


"RE: Regarding the editing thread"
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-17-15 at 11:00 PM
And weightloss does not necessarily mean endgame it could be close to it or just there. And I had no real weightloss spoilers on Spencer before the game started. And Stephen, who I had endgame the first two shows, I had no weightloss read on.

The only people who I thought really lost weight to the point of going to the end was Kimmi, Kelley, and Keith.

And that's been my editing style from the getgo.


"RE: Regarding the editing thread"
Posted by Jims03 on 10-19-15 at 09:49 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-19-15 AT 09:52 PM (EST)

Well obviously people can read into the edit to figure out that some of the players are going to be endgame in advance. It didn't take a brain surgeon last season to figure out that Mike was going to be around for awhile. If someone rolled dice, they could probably correctly guess a couple people who are end game.

Your explanation is that you are strictly looking at the edit, WITHOUT ANY OUTSIDE INFORMATION TAINTING THE ANALYSIS, and coming up with a list that is 100% exactly the same as every other spoiled list at the time... Well, I don't think that explanation passes the smell test. Knowing about the weight loss stuff makes the editing answers so much more clear.

Is Andrew's solid and emotional edit going to carry him into a Mike-esque endgame appearance and possibly win? Well, of course not, it doesn't have enough strategy discussion and is clearly a shorter arc.

Is Kass' turnaround edit showing that she can truly change herself and give herself a true Second Chance, and dare I say, even win the game? Of course not. It's clearly setting her up for how she can't shake her past and people like Spencer and Tasha won't believe it.

Is Ciera's fairly invisible edit mean she could be the irrelevant 3rd place finisher? Of course not, she's just a relatively unimportant Cagayan Morgan or Purple Kelly figure come the merge.

Like I said, I don't doubt that people can look at the edit and figure it out. Heck, I don't doubt that you can do it. But, looking at the conclusions you made and how you outlined it so succinctly and I don't think you are completely separating the two. And I don't think the way you present the info is fair to michel.

That's it.


"RE: Regarding the editing thread"
Posted by Outsider32 on 10-19-15 at 10:57 PM
First of all I did not predict Kelley, Spencer, Jeremy, and Tasha to be final four. I said they would be end game. Each of them has been given a long term storyline and not a journey edit(except Spencer). Spencer is trying to change, Jeremy's been more toned down than before, Kelley is looking like the winner, and Tasha gave a very important confessional the first show pre-marooning, and followed that up with strong 3rd and 4th episodes.

The only other people who have been given more airtime than those two have been Jeff and Abi. Jeff I got wrong, I thought he would be pre-merge. Abi I had pre-merge and now I'm not sure.

The only other person who has been given decent airtime was Stephen, and for the first three episodes(or two) I had him endgame. But after the third show, he started to come off like Jenn.

Terry and Savage have been fleshed out too much. Its more about them and their egos than what their story is.

Endgame Important players
Those given confessionals of value and not being fleshed out too early unless that person were to win(such as Mike and Tony).

Important players not endgame
Those that are fleshed out early, given way too much screentime and confessionals are about everyone on their tribe.

And if you go back to my WA edit, you will see I had these at my endgame at different times:
Mike(the winner)
Carolyn
Tyler
Dan
Rodney
Jenn
Will

Five of them finished top seven. I had Hali over Sierra for the invisible endgamer until the last pre-merge episode and hinted she could be the merge boot(she wasn't but was first juror) because of Jenn's edit. Jenn was the one who was out sooner with Jeremy edit.

Maybe you should go read all my posts in that thread.

And lets wait until one of the final five go before the final five before jumping to conclusions because I am pretty sure the bootlist got the exact final three wrong. Kelley is winning, not Jeremy. Spencer might be this season's narrator/journey boot along with Stephen.


And btw, I just noticed that final four on the bootlist last week. I never paid attention to it before because of the abundance of fake spoilers in the past on that forum. People started talking about it in the edgic thread in Speculation and that's when I brought it up here.



"RE: I have a possible bootlist spoiler"
Posted by coldbrewer on 11-19-15 at 12:26 PM
It's quite possible the person who spoiled the list swapped Savage with Stephen. Kelly booted, Ciera next, then Stephen?