LAST EDITED ON 11-11-15 AT 11:50 AM (EST)

episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | total
Spencer      T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 24
Andrew       B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 21
Abi-Maria    T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | 15
Kass         B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
Kelley       T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 14
Tasha        B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | 13
Jeremy       B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 12
Stephen      B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10
Joe          B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10
Ciera        B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 8
Kimmi        B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 4
Keith        B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4
Kelly        T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | 3
Eliminated
F20 Vytas    T     | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin   T     | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A   | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff     T/A   | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica   B/B   | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry    T/T   | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo      T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass     B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X

Lots of Survivors changing places in the hierarchy this week with the merge. One thing is for certain. Many possible final arcs have begun, let's take a look.
1. Savage and Kelley: Both were narrators for different perspectives in the game. If their confessionals settle down next week, this may not be their final swan song? But Savage has a peak with confessionals and he could be at risk?
2. Joe: huge spike from consistently 1 per episode to 4. Arc begun, could be the beginning of the end? We see that he is one of the ones that will be a target next week as the focus of Stephen's big move. At risk.
3. Ciera: She had 2 last week, 3 this week. Is this leading up to a peak then crash? At risk.

Now, those that had a big dip in confessionals, which could set them up for a surprise boot:
1. Stephen: Last week Stephen had a spike of 3, the most he's ever had, and he had a plan to hatch regarding a big move against the alpha, Joe MacGuyver. Seemingly it got put on the back burner with the merge episode, and Stephen's one confessional told us about new school merge dynamics, need 7 for the majority. With the tease for next week in the promo, looks like his story from last week, the big move, is coming up again and could be front and center. We can see from the promos that Stephen is getting confessionals next week, a spike perhaps? Will the big move plan bite him? He's at risk.

Those with consistent numbers: Spencer, Abi, Tasha, Jeremy, Kimmi, Keith, and Kelly. I agree with what CTGirl said last week. If any of the current under the radar players have some kind of a spike suddenly, then they are most likely beginning their final swan song.

For me this week considering confessionals only ~ At high risk: Joe, Ciera, Stephen. At risk: Savage.

Thank you!

I was beginning to worry ...

G

LAST EDITED ON 11-08-15 AT 05:02 PM (EST)

1. Stephen: Last week Stephen had a spike of 3, the most he's ever had, and he had a plan to hatch regarding a big move against the alpha, Joe MacGuyver. Seemingly it got put on the back burner with the merge episode, and Stephen's one confessional told us about new school merge dynamics, need 7 for the majority. With the tease for next week in the promo, looks like his story from last week, the big move, is coming up again and could be front and center. We can see from the promos that Stephen is getting confessionals next week, a spike perhaps? Will the big move plan bite him?

I think that it is possible that the increased attention to Savage is due, in part, to the fact that he becomes Stephen's target.

And/Or ...

I wonder if it may be that Stephen postpones his quest (or abandons it entirely) only to have the Ta Keo (III) coalition convince the mainline alliance that his plot is alive and well and aimed at one of their own. And, as a result, a (relatively) innocent Stephen is sent packing: blindsided by both divisions of his Tribe.

Too, I wonder, if the question of whether or not Stephen may have an Idol comes up, what Jeremy will do/say.

G

LAST EDITED ON 11-12-15 AT 10:29 AM (EST)

Well, interesting to review the confessionals in retrospect. I noted that Andrew and Kelley both had spikes. They both told the story of the merge and what it meant to them, from their different perspectives, which was narrational regarding the events at the tribe as well. As michel noted, however, Kelley's first confessional was a lot more than narrational...it was more about what it meant for her ....here are her confessionals:

1. I’m so excited. I am freaking out. I didn’t make the merge the last time which was my goal number one so at least making the merge this time is like: OK, I’ve hit one step of where I want to be, but I want to push through and I want to get to the end. There’s one winner. One person gets the million dollars at the end of Survivor and I came here to play!

2. Confessional #2 tells us about the game from her perspective and who she's with....a vantage point from one side....Right now, I am working with Kass, Ciera, Keith and hopefully we have Joe because, when I was back at the old Takeo camp, we had made a Final Five deal. Kass thinks we have Abi but then I have Spencer and Joe who are a little bit of a wild card. I do want to talk to them to see exactly where they are because I need to be sure if they are on board. It’s pretty clear right now that Spencer and Joe are going to be the power players who are in control of this game. This is it: It’s so important.

3. Confessional #3 is also a perspective from the "other side"....I haven’t been with Spencer for a very long time so I wanted to check in with him to make sure that he would potentially want to work with me.

Then, here are Andrew's confessionals. A perspective from his point of view, and then from his side of things post merge. His first confessional paints an ugly side of Andrew. He's judgmental and arrogant, and so narcissistic! Painting Andrew like this, or showing this side of him, does make me root for the underdog girls. The uglier he is, the better they look...

1. It was a very tough night for me. I go to Tribal; I thought it was a lock. They didn’t include me and they are incredible liars. I thought I could read people pretty well...These folks are professionals. I feel the most betrayed by Kass. I thought she was really strong with the Bayons but after last night, she became a Takeo. I’m not going to go down without a fight. (Bleep) them. Piece of (bleep). There’s a merge coming. If I have to bite my tongue, act like a wimpy little non-leader, under the radar kind of guy which is the antithesis of me, I’ll do it. I need to get to that merge.

2. Let this twist be something beautiful: A beautiful merge. My dream is to make the merge. I suffered. I am praying to the Survivor gods stronger than you can imagine that today is something good like a merge and I am back with my Bayon brothers. Please, please, please. This confessional exposes that Andrew is not quite capable of really playing with any other alternative than his original commitment with the Bayon boys. In retrospect, we can see it's a lot of foreshadowing, as Abi told him on the way out last night, at least you made the merge!

3. I’m the happiest man alive right now. I’m back at my home, my original home: Bayon.

4. Wiglesworth has told me that she has my back. She wasn’t in the original Bayon but Wiglesworth is hugely loyal from what I can tell. We need seven. So, from a numbers stand point, I have to do everything I can to go after Joe, just to reconfirm that he would like to be part of the Bayon.

5.Tasha and Kass were going at it when suddenly Ciera was saying something about me. Dude, you just woke up a raging bull. You got a really nasty, rabid two-headed dragon right now that is wreaking havoc in our beautiful little tribe and we’re going to take one of the heads and just lop it off.

6. First immunity challenge; I wanted to win. I wanted to make a statement. You have all these young studs; I just wanted to show that I can hang with them. But Ciera and Kass didn’t win immunity. The ring leader was Kass with Ciera right behind her. They are coming up with lies that are almost believable and that’s what so dangerous about them but, from my perspective, I would rather have Ciera go. I will never forget what Ciera did and, in my mind, she’s done. For this vote, I’d rather have Ciera go. She is dangerous. For me, she is public enemy number one and she has to go.

His latter confessionals tell us the perspective from the opposite side of Kelley.

In retrospect we can see that the spike that Andrew and Kelley had in ep 7 were related to the drama that unfolded between them in ep 8. They have both been very present through the entire show. But, Andrew was being painted as negative, while Kelley was determined, she wants to win! So, it's easy to see now that Kelley would trump Savage. Clearly, Savage's confessionals did NOT settle down, and therefore the spike last week was the big indicator of his demise.

It's fun to use the confessional patterns as just one other tool to try and predict the outcomes!

It is a great tool! Hindsight is 20-20! I remember thinking that Andrew could be in trouble when I saw his spike in confessionals. That coupled with Stephen only having one confessional made me think (at the time) that Stephen was safe.

I can't wait to see the numbers for this week! Thanks for doing this FloPo!!

episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |total
Spencer      T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25
Andrew       B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X
Kelley       T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 3 | 17
Abi-Maria    T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 15
Stephen      B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15
Jeremy       B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14
Tasha        B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 13
Joe          B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 12
Ciera        B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11
Kimmi        B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 1 | 5
Keith        B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 5
Kelly        T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 3
Eliminated
F20 Vytas    T     | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin   T     | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A   | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff     T/A   | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica   B/B   | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry    T/T   | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo      T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass     B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
F12 Andrew   B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X

This week there are some interesting developments. First of all, it's easy to see now, in retrospect that Andrew's peak last week was the pinnacle of his arc. Toast! This week, we have to be aware that Stephen has a very similar spike, with a jump from 1 confessional last week to 5 this week. Clearly he is at high risk!

AS for the others: Spencer: He drops down to 1 confessional and seems to be on the right side of the numbers, he doesn't appear to be one of the "big threats" noted by Ciera or Stephen. Safe.
Kelley: Her arc is steady at the same number of confessionals as she had last week ~ 3. She was at the core of the drama this week. She's going to be one of the witches. She could be working on her final arc and now that she no longer has her HII she could be in trouble? At risk.
Abi-Maria: steady under the radar. She is seen in the preview promo a few times and if she gets confessionals next week, she could have her final spike in her boot episode. She's a witch. At risk.
Jeremy: goes from 1 to 2 this week. Steady, safe. Starting to have meatier confessionals as to how and what he wants. Steered the vote this time. Safe.
Tasha: under the radar, with the numbers. Safe.
Joe: Had 4 last week, settles to 2 this week. While his confessional pattern seems to be settling down, he still is a target if he doesn't win IC. But, his arc could have started last week, we know he does get a confessional next week(see it in the promos). At slight risk.
Ciera: Like Kelley, she's in the midst of the drama, has the same confessional count as last week, this could be her final arc? At risk.
Kimmi: Safe
Keith: Safe
Kelly: Safe

Confessionals tell us:
At high risk: Stephen
At risk: the witches ~ Kelley, Ciera, Abi-Maria
At slight risk: Joe

I don't think Abi is going anywhere. I don't see her as a threat - possibly a goat.

High risk: Stephen
At risk: Ciera, Kelley, or Joe

LAST EDITED ON 11-21-15 AT 09:06 AM (EST)

episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |total
Spencer      T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 26
Stephen      B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 21
Kelley       T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 3 | 3 | 20
Jeremy       B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19
Abi-Maria    T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 16
Tasha        B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 1 | 14
Joe          B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14
Ciera        B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13
Kimmi        B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 1 | 1 | 6
Keith        B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | . | 5
Kelly        T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 1 | 4X
Eliminated
F20 Vytas    T     | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin   T     | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A   | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff     T/A   | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica   B/B   | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry    T/T   | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo      T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass     B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
F12 Andrew   B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X
F11 Kelly    T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 1 | 4X

Okay, I want to start off saying that anyone with no confessionals, even for one week, is at slight risk to go home in the next episode, as a hidden boot, having their last spike, last arc in their boot episode. This is exactly what happened with Kelly. While I placed Abi Maria at risk for this week, because she had had no confessionals and then all of a sudden, I saw her appear in the promos, a lot. That was a tip, that this episode could have been her spike/arc that led to her demise. I did not place Kelly at risk last week because she didn't appear to be "all over" the promos. Let's face it, every season production does like to have 1 or 2 completely hidden boots. Historically, they like to put one toward the beginning of the season. This season, it's Kelly. Score one for EPMB! Kelly had NO confessionals until her final arc, the swan song, that was her boot episode.

But, as CTGirl noted, those that start arcs toward the end of the show need to be watched closely and we have a lot going on now. Many people are most likely in the midst of their final arcs.

There were 2 stars of this episode. First of all, Stephen, and he has had the acme of his arc with getting the advantage and selling the voting block theory in contrast to prior ways to play the game of Survivor that entailed alliances. Jiffy is buying it and selling it. Stephen showed us a lot of his personal thinking and strategy...how do I get the witches to make the potion that's right for me?, I think that there are voting blocks that make sense for the moment then the next day that could be completely out the window, my 2nd chance is about having a game of my own that I can point to, and say these are the moves that I made, and so I want to build something with the 3 witches because they are on the bottom and they are desperate to make a move.... Then he talks about the advantage he won and what it means and he's not using tonight, he can get by on his wits and hustle. He makes this new strategy clear....for Spencer and Jeremy and for us...I don’t want to build an alliance with the 3 people on the bottom and get picked off with them. Let’s build this voting block. We are talking about voting blocks here and every Tribal Council there is going to be a new VB. I have to add here that clearly the foreshadowing is on the wall. This new evolution of Survivor strategy is going to be the demise of Fishbach. A voting block will surely boot his knowingest a$$!

So, it's clear to me that Stephen is at the pinnacle of his story in this season. His arc can only go down from here, and this strategy will be his demise, OR, he will go to the end with it. 2 choices here, demise or end game. At high risk

The second star of the show was Jeremy, and he had 5 confessionals which was a peak for him. But, Jeremy's confessionals were all about finding the idol because his shields are starting to get picked off, (Savage), and he is aware they they will come for him. His presumption was validated as Ciera called him out during the RC, if you are with Jeremy at the end, he will win. He's been labeled by others as a threat.
His first 4 confessionals were all about the need to find, then the hunt to find, then finding, and celebrating the idol. He did get the last confessional before TC, as the outcome of the TC depended on him, and he expressed doubt and concern. Jeremy is a star of the show now with 2 HI's in his pocket. He's safe.

Spencer is still another star of the show but he's settled down quite nicely after all of the dangerous spots he's maneuvered through. His hard efforts have paid off as he now appears to be in a very tight alliance of himself, Jeremy, and Stephen. How nice for Jeremy to be sitting between Spencer, the young lad, and Stephen, the knowingest know-it-all! Spencer is going with the flow, now getting to ride in the back seat for a change and letting Stephen take the drivers seat, as Stephen told us he wanted to do a few episodes ago. Spencer is safe.

Kelley: She could have been in serious danger and she was the secondary target tonight. Yet, as one of the most sought after targets, she's managed to escape the boot once again. I do think this is her end arc. Her last confessional was feeling more confident because she had new people that are willing to work with her...I think she is at risk.

Abi-Maria: With one confessional in the episode she is starting her end arc. But, for now, there are bigger fish to fry, namely Wentworth and Ciera. Her name was not mentioned as a boot target. For now, safe.

Tasha: Had 1 confessional that was narrative. She's not seen to be with the "in" crowd or the voting block for this episode. Not a good sign, I don't think. For now, this is her prior pattern. I think for now she is safe, but we will watch her in the next weeks.

Joe has settled down from the peak a few episodes ago. I think that he's safe for now, but clearly, he's in his final story arc. As his confessionals are the same as last week, and they are in reference to finding the HI, and then about the benefits of getting the reward. I think he is SAFE this week. Abi also told us that Joe is just going to win that IN forever....as soon as he doesn't, wham bam. Let's hope he has a spike or a dip in the prior episode to give us a hint.

Ciera has also started her final arc, I think. She had a two week peak and now she's got a small dip, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see her really peak in her boot episode, and it could be next week, or it could be two weeks, or it could be in 3 or 4 weeks. She's at risk.

As for Kimmi and Keith, the remaining 2 daws. It's easy to see that they are not a big part of the second chance story. Funny, ever since they got on the same tribe, and Kimmi was trying to do something with the water and fire, and Keith scolded her, they have been associated together. Bringing and reading treemail, sharing rewards, etc, etc. Look to see in vidcaps how ofter they are right next to each other. It's comical!

Kimmi has one confessional for the past two weeks. This could be her baseline until her boot episode. I don't see her in danger this week however, but I have to say I didn't see Kelly in danger last week either! SAFE

Keith: Falls under the radar but he has been associated with Joe, and it seems that everyone that hangs with Joe gets the boot when Joe wins immunity. However, I see bigger fish to fry and bigger fish making waves than Keith so I think Keith is safe

This weeks prediction looks a lot like last weeks...

High Risk: Stephen
At Risk: Ciera, Kelley

I enjoy your posts.

Something interesting (not that it means anything just interesting) is there are 3 people who have had at least 1 confessional in every episode.

Spencer, Jeremy and Kelley.

So if one of these 3 do not make the final 3 (making the assumption that there is a final 3) which one would it be?

Also, Stephen had a spike last week and stayed up this week. Does he go? I think that makes him at risk.

Jeremy is also up this week. It will be interesting to see if he stays up and if that puts him at risk.

Dusty

First of all, what GREAT back to back episodes! I was riveted! I am going to separate the two episodes, so first off we have confessionals for episode 10...

episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10|total
Spencer      T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 31
Stephen      B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 26
Jeremy       B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 22
Kelley       T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 21
Ciera        B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18X
Abi-Maria    T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 1 | 17
Joe          B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17
Tasha        B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 1 | 2 | 16
Kimmi        B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8
Keith        B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2$| 7

Eliminated
F20 Vytas    T     | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin   T     | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A   | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff     T/A   | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica   B/B   | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry    T/T   | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo      T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass     B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
F12 Andrew   B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X
F11 Kelly    T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 1 | 4X
F10 Ciera    B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18X

A few things to note. 3 stars of the show, Ciera, our boot, Stephen, the intended target, and Spencer who was seen working hard to get Stephen out, but failed because Jeremy played his idol. In retrospect we can see that Ciera was in her final arc for the past 5 episodes. As one of the witches that had prayed for miracles and received them, her time had run out. In contrast, Stephen was blindsided, but spared. Still easy to see that his arc is indeed at the top and must come down soon, we saw it come to an end in episode 11, where he was blindsided again, even with his advantage.

With Spencer having a huge spike, we may presume this is the start of his final arc. He's playing the game hard, and at first he had to play to assimilate, and we saw him let others drive the bus, but now, he's getting in the front seat and starting to grab the steering wheel, but do the others want to go where he wants to lead? That's going to be interesting to see! If we didn't know the outcome to episode 11, I may had said that he was at risk, with such a significant spike.

Jeremy came back down from his spike last week but still very present with 3 confessionals, and Kelley settles down to 3...safe. Abi stays the same, Abi could be in her final arc, and she could have a big spike in her boot episode.

Joe has an increase in confessionals, starting his final arc?
Kimmi and Keith, both with 2 confessionals, both okay for now, Keith had a very meaty million dollar quote....They are talking about food and cold, but I am here to win a million dollars cut and dry, I ain’t starving to death, yeah, I’ll make it out, this is day 25, 35, hell, we are two weeks out, hell I’ll make it 50 days for a million dollars! Shoot, when do you get a second chance for something like this?....hahahhaha! I think with the way Keith picked it up and went on a little immunity run at the last season he played, this could be the editors giving us cause to NOT rule Keith out just yet, and perhaps intimating that Keith could do the same!

LAST EDITED ON 12-01-15 AT 02:47 PM (EST)

episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10| 11|total
Spencer      T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 35
Stephen      B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 32X
Kelley       T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 26
Jeremy       B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 23
Abi-Maria    T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 1 | 3 | 20
Joe          B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20
Tasha        B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 1 | 2 | . | 16
Kimmi        B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | 8
Keith        B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2$| . | 7

Eliminated
F20 Vytas    T     | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin   T     | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A   | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff     T/A   | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica   B/B   | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry    T/T   | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo      T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass     B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
F12 Andrew   B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X
F11 Kelly    T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 1 | 4X
F10 Ciera    B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18X
F 9 Stephen  B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 32X

There were 3 stars of the show. Stephen, with his being blindsided but then saved by Jeremy, then with winning the RC, and deciding to share information about his advantages to 3 people, his trusted allies, and then wanting Joe out. We see that he was feeling too comfortable with his advantage, and he told the person that he thought he could trust, that was out to get him, Spencer. This inevitably led to his demise, and Joe outlasts Stephen. But, with all conflicts that are paramount in the seasons story, we have to wonder once the conflict is resolved, will the other person be soon to follow?

The next star of the show was Spencer. He told us that he felt he had been lied to and that maybe he should jump ship with others that wanted to jump ship! He also told us that the knowingest know it all made a questionable decision with who he chose for reward, that they, Tasha, Jeremy, Stephen, were tighter with each other than they were with him, and maybe he needed to do something about it. Then we see him do just that. He spear heads to quest to take Stephen out, and has it all arranged, and then Stephen tells him about the advantage, leaving Spencer enough time to manage the numbers. Well done, Spencer. You ARE a player! Spencer is getting what he wants and is still a star in this show. He jumped from working with Jeremy/Stephen to working with Kelley. He's SAFE!

The final star of the show with 5 confessionals was Kelley. The first 3 confessionals were ALL about her finding the HI clue, then reading the clue, then going about and getting the HI. The next 2 confessionals were about the core 4, Kimmi, Stephen, Tasha, and Jeremy think that Joe is going home, but I have 5, so it's not going to happen....and we see she is firm, but if there is anything "fishy" at TC, she will play her idol! With an idol in her pocket, despite the big spike, Kelley is SAFE for next week.

The "Others" :

Jeremy: Falls from 3 to 1 confessional, I think that he's safe, stays away from the drama and we know he still has another HI. He's SAFE for the week.

Joe: Joe is stable with 3 confessionals. But, we note that Joe's counts have gone from 1's, to 4, to 2's, to 3's....he's a steady presence, but his arc is underway in a slower, more drawn out way. Joe triumphed over Stephen tonight, and he told us that it was a test, that he had to rely on his social game and let's see if it's better than the last time. So with that, Joe outlasting, and not being voted off when he doesn't win immunity is a nod from the editors, yes, you did have more social game than the last time! But, the thing is, it was really Spencer and Kelley that drove the strategy tp get out Fish. With his arc going slow and steady up, I would say that Joe is ripe for a crash and burn, the conflict with Stephen is over. At Risk!

Abi: She had an uptick from 1 to 3 confessionals, which is indeed suspect. And her confessionals were throwing shade on Stephen and on Joe, and even Spencer. She went with the plan, but they are talking about her...Kelley, Spencer, Stephen, they all were. That's a bad sign. I would say with the sudden spike, she's at risk.

Tasha, Keith, Kimmi: All back under the radar, insignificant for now, I say they are all safe!

At risk: Joe, Abi
At slight risk: With 0 confessionals this week, there is always a possibility of a "hidden boot" with a spike in their boot episode, so there fore at slight risk are Tasha, Kimmi, Keith.

episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10| 11| 12|total
Spencer      T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5$| 40
Kelley       T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 29
Jeremy       B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 27
Abi-Maria    T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 21
Joe          B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 23X
Tasha        B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 1 | 2 | . | 3 | 19
Kimmi        B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | 2 | 10
Keith        B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2$| . | 1 | 8

Eliminated
F20 Vytas    T     | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin   T     | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A   | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff     T/A   | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica   B/B   | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry    T/T   | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo      T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass     B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
F12 Andrew   B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X
F11 Kelly    T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 1 | 4X
F10 Ciera    B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18X
F 9 Stephen  B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 32X
F 8 Joe      B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 23X

Things to note: Joe ended with a slow and steady arc, an ever present character.
There was one star of this show and it was Spencer. He told us that even though he had blindsided Jeremy by taking out Stephen, and even though Jeremy was not someone he wanted to go to the end with, he still did not want to become a gamebot and treat people like pawns, so he needed to keep a relationship with Jeremy. Then his confessionals were personal, about a struggle in his life to tell people he loved them, then we see him do it, then we hear later how it was the most heartache he'd ever felt, but, there is no option for me at this point but for me to get my head back in the game and for me to win. YES, folks, that IS a winning or a million dollar quote. Better late than never!

Spencer's next two confessionals were about needing to get Joe when he could, and then needing to squash the girls before they get started.

I did feel early on that Spencer was the journey character and that his journey was about a coming of age and maturation one, growing socially....recognizing that relationships get you farther in the game of life than strategy. With him telling his girlfriend that he loves her this ep, his story is coming to fruition. BUT!!! With that that $ quote, his conviction to now win, it gives me pause. He's still a candidate for winning, perhaps! Spencer had a spike in his confessionals, and he's come full circle with the "I love you's", I think Spencer is at SLIGHT RISK.

Jeremy had 4 confessionals. He tells us how he felt when Stephen left, he's having a son that he doesn't want to tell anyone about, he was planning to vote out Joe but then Tasha tells them about a girls alliance, and If those girls take over this game he and Spencer are done, games over, so having Tasha on his side is crucial. Pretty straight forward narration from his perspective. A good showing with 4, and the start of an arc.

Spencer told us that he doesn't want to go to the end with Jeremy, BUT, with the arrival of the girls alliance, it may bond Spencer closer to Jeremy. While another one of Jeremy's shields is gone, he still has an HII in his pocket, Jeremy is SAFE for this week.

Kelley had three confessionals. The first one telling us about the all girls alliance, second one telling about how excited everyone was to be there(on reward), and the third one was about how hard Joe was playing and he had to go so the girls could win this game. She's buying into the all girls alliance, which was steered by Kimmi. She is telling us her plan. A strong presence especially since she not only won the reward, but the IC as well. Just gives me pause that it wasn't her plan originally. But, with an HII in her pocket, I do believe Kelley is SAFE for this week.

Clearly, the three stars of the show, Spencer, Jeremy, and Kelley have all now started their final arcs, so the only question is, who will crash and burn BEFORE the final, and who's will be the decided winners arc?

Tasha gets an uptick, going from 0 to 3, because she is the one riding both alliances, both options. Because she has options she is SAFE for the next week.

Kimmi has an uptick as well, 0 to 2. And, it's her idea, she's pitching the all girls alliance. We see her get Kelley on board then go to all the others, she's getting the credit for the plan. I think because it is her plan, and we saw this plan FAIL when Monica proposed it, AND, because Kimmi goes from 0 to 2, and that is the most confessionals she's ever had in one episode, I think that Kimmi is at SLIGHT RISK.

Keith also goes from 0 to 1, he got to see Big D. Comic relief, Big D was the ultimate prize. Keith had one insignificant confessional, he could be ripe for a hidden boot, especially since he took down Joey Amazing in the IC this week. At RISK.

Abi, otoh, goes down with her confessional count from 3 to 1. Her confessional was gloating about Joe losing to a 52 year old man, and how that was awesome. Abi is becoming the witch in the witches coven. She exemplifies what Joe pointed out to Jeremy this week, that everyone wants to go to the end with her. I do NOT see her as a winner contender. Abi was the secondary target this week, and people are starting to get her on their radar. She could be a "surprise" boot but dropping down in confessionals this week, for next week. Going down in confessionals while getting noticed puts Abi as ripe. She's AT RISK

At SLIGHT RISK: Spencer, Kimmi
At RISK: Keith, Abi

LAST EDITED ON 12-06-15 AT 06:14 PM (EST)

FloPo, thanks so much for doing this every week -- very helpful! I'm blown away by how few confessionals Keith and Kimmi have had…..and how the 3 editing stars are the only ones with a confessional every episode.

Given Keith's "spike" (if you can call it that, ha) and the fact that he's the only left in the F7 NOT to have a confessional in the season opener 9-min. introductory segment, I'm leaning toward him going next. Plus Abi's presumed "Villians have more fun" title seems to imply that she might get her way this week.

I felt the same way as you did about Spencer's journey edit so far, but then this week his edit was just fabulous, and that one confessional was a big reason. For the record, though, he did have a "winning" quote in Ep1. (didn't mention $1mil, so maybe that's why you or Dabo didn't count it).

Michel mentioned in another thread that winning quotes don't mean much anymore because several people have them, but I still think it's telling that only Jeremy, Spencer and Tasha had a "winning" quote in that opening segment vs. Kelley talked about wanting to play "a better game."

LAST EDITED ON 12-10-15 AT 10:48 PM (EST)

Since it's the last time the confessionals can be used, I thought I would churn them out. After last week, I really believed that Abi would be the next one to go. I let myself be persuaded however by Keith and his challenge prowess...hehhehhehehehe, SPIT! Speaking of Keith, did you notice they zeroed in on him in the promo with a big spit exclamation point?!

Here is the last confessional tracker before the finale:

episode            | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10| 11| 12| 13 |total
Spencer      T/B/T | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5$| 4 | 44
Kelley       T/T/B | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 33
Jeremy       B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 27
Abi-Maria    T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 25X
Tasha        B/A/B | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 1 | 2 | . | 3 | 6 | 25
Keith        B/T/B | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2$| . | 1 | 3 | 11
Kimmi        B/B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | 2 | . | 10
Eliminated
F20 Vytas    T     | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin   T     | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Peih-Gee T/A   | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff     T/A   | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica   B/B   | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry    T/T   | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo      T/A/T | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
F13 Kass     B/T/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 5 | 15X
F12 Andrew   B/A/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 6 | 3 | 24X
F11 Kelly    T/B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | . | . | 1 | 4X
F10 Ciera    B/T/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 18X
F 9 Stephen  B/B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 32X
F 8 Joe      B/T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 23X
F 7Abi-Maria T/A/T | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 25X

Abi was the classic hidden boot, with a drop in her confessionals last week, then a spike in her boot episode. She did get a very early confessional in her boot episode, which apparently is a big tip to the episode boot. I think the title of the episode was a hint as well, perhaps?

Tasha got a big spike as well going from 3 to 6. Part of that was the drama at the IC with her near drowning, but Tasha expressed that Jeremy needs to let her take her turn to make a big move, but we saw her as fickle. She was dead set on taking out Keith, the big challenge threat with Kimmi, Abi, and Jeremy, but then in the hammock she did a 180, and decided Abi was the bigger threat, because she could flip at any time. We saw her rally her troops, Jeremy and Spencer, but not Kimmi. It was almost comical that at first she wanted Keith, then she says in confessional that the reason that Abi has to go is that she is very volatile. *snort* Tasha was volatile in the episode. The Fox train is leaving the station.

Spencer got the quality confessional with depth at the reward...not only was he blown away by the Cambodian temples and experience, but he reflected on his personal journey, in his second chance game which was to show through this game how much he's changed and to use that change to win this game. Another declaration to win this game. It's just what he needs to get through the last 6 days. Then he talks strategy with Kelley and Keith, then later with Jeremy and Tasha. Spencer was truly the swing vote, and he chose to go with the stronger Jeremy and Tasha to the end, rather than with his "dream goats" Abi and Keith. He's has made his bed. Is this the doubt that will be cast on him as winner?

Keith had his biggest spike yet, up to 3 confessionals. HIs first was about how he wished he'd known about the Joe vote, and that he needed to go talk to "some folks", then a confessional about the reward, then about the near drowning and then reeling Abi in to take out, Tasha, Jeremy, and Kimmi....easy.

Kelley had an uptick by 1, she had 4 confessionals. Kelley talks about her game play, her uncertainty, her wanting to trust in some people, while recognizing she hasn't had a strong alliance the entire game. Then, she admits wanting to get to the end game, she's almost there...then she admits that she JUST wants to get to the F3, that's a goal. Will she get there? I can't help but feel that when a player says they "just" want to do something, then it's a self fulfilling prophecy.

Jeremy had a dip in confessionals. His first confessional was about buyers remorse, should have kept Joe, but let me tell everybody on the jury why I deserve that million dollars, that’s all I want! Another self-fulfilling prophecy? Will he get to tell them all and fall short as well? The other confessionals were about Scorpios, and then entertaining the possibility of Spencer jumping ship.

Kimmi: Nada.

Predictions: Judging by the confessionals, regarding the next boot at F6, I think that Tasha, Keith, and Kimmi are all at risk. Tasha and Keith had confessional spikes while Kimmi dipped down (hidden boot pattern).

If I had to pick a winner for this season on the confessionals alone, I would easily choose Spencer, at this point. The story of the second chance season has really been played out through his second Survivor adventure. He epitomizes that story and I do think he's doing enough to win it. We will see!