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"S29 | Finale Episode | Vidcap Analysis *No Sources*"
Posted by tribephyl on 12-11-14 at 02:01 AM
Alas, the final thread for vidcaps and vidcap discussion for this season. *sniffle*
Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"Post Show Promo"
Posted by tribephyl on 12-11-14 at 02:02 AM
Transcript and Vidcaps courtesy of SurvivorFever.net

JP: Next time on the two hour Season Finale of Survivor...
Missy (camera confessional): Is it really fair, if I really can't do anything?
JP: It all comes to an end.
Jaclyn (camera confessional): I didn't come 36 days to just get voted out.
Jaclyn (yelling at Natalie and pointing her finger): Don't say that you know Jon!
Natalie: I know Jon in this game and...
Jaclyn: In the game, yeah, but not in real life.
Keith (camera confessional): God! (slapping self in the face out of frustration)


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"RE: Post Show Promo"
Posted by Outsider32 on 12-11-14 at 10:57 PM
I wonder what Keith is slapping himself for? That whole argument or him not winning the f5 or f4 IC to have a chance at staying alive?
"RE: Post Show Promo"
Posted by Brownroach on 12-12-14 at 00:32 AM
He might just be unhappy at having gotten stuck at a hen party.
"RE: Post Show Promo"
Posted by kingfish on 12-12-14 at 09:50 AM
Maybe he just thought of a knee slapper of a joke, and forgot where his knees were? Or couldn't find them? Maybe?
"Preview vidcaps..."
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-12-14 at 10:08 AM
LAST EDITED ON 12-12-14 AT 10:20 AM (EST)

Trying to make sense out of the vidcaps:

I think that we have 2 challenges pictured in the preview vidcaps...

Keith at the first IC...


Jaclyn at the same challenge where Keith is...

Then, Natalie sizing up the second challenge...


Now, here are some possible misdirection shots...

Keith hitting himself in conf...

....and Jaclyn telling us she didn't last 36 days to be voted out...

And, Missy telling us is it fair, I really can't do anything?

Then, we have this shot of Baylor in transit....could this be exile?

For comparison....Jon and Nat at Exile....note the rock formation behind them, and note they are on a peninsula....water in between them and the rock formation...

Where is Baylor. If anyone is sent to Exile for any reason, I would expect it to be Baylor. Missy/Baylor/Natalie are in control of the game. Natalie already has an HII, Missy is an invalid, so that leaves Baylor. Just speculation, I know some do not think there will be anymore EI.

"RE: Preview vidcaps..."
Posted by michel2 on 12-12-14 at 05:24 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-12-14 AT 05:25 PM (EST)

Very good speculation there about Baylor.

I changed my mind and think there will be a reward challenge and someone sent to EI. We just have to look at how the episodes heve been presented up to now:

1st segment: Jeff's recap and the night scene (5 minutes)
2nd segment: RC
3rd Segment: Camp, Reward, EI
4th segment: IC.

They can't have the first IC as early as they presented the reward challenges so what would they show us for the first 15 minutes? The characters and their interactions??? We are not in the good old days anymore. They HAVE to show a challenge so it will be a reward challenge.

"RE: Preview vidcaps..."
Posted by Outsider32 on 12-13-14 at 02:27 AM
But then after that, the fifth segment is deliberation/TC. Then after that, return to camp near tart of hour. Then a commercial break again. Come back for next segment and more deliberations, maybe family visit, fallen comrades(if they do that at all). IC happenes third segment of hour 2 and deliberation again/TC to start second half. Likely commercial will cut in here, as CBS has to go to break around the 20 til mark. That means FTC happens at around the 50' mark. That is way too late. the FTC usually starts before the last 30 minutes of the show. Its not possible to squeeze in reward.
"RE: Preview vidcaps..."
Posted by michel2 on 12-13-14 at 03:49 AM
If you think it's not possible to squeeze in some meaningless challenge then you haven't been watching the last 10 seasons!

1- Recap + night scene (5 minutes)
2- RC (5 minutes)
3- Camp reaction + EI + reward (8 minutes)
4- 1st IC (5 minutes)
5- Scrambling + TC (12 minutes)
6- reaction to TC (5 minutes => total = 40 minutes)
7- 2nd IC (5 minutes and we reach 9:00PM)
8- Scrambling + 2nd TC (15 minutes)
9- F3 camp reaction and feast (10 minutes)
10- FTC starts at 9:30.

"RE: Preview vidcaps..."
Posted by Sheldor on 12-13-14 at 07:32 PM
michel wrote: "If you think it's not possible to squeeze in some meaningless challenge then you haven't been watching the last 10 seasons!"

I agree it is *possible* but they have NEVER ever had 1 Reward Challenge and 2 Immunity Challenges in the Finale.

However, they did squeeze in a Redemption Island Duel in S22, S23, and S27 in addition to 2 Immunity Challenges so it is possible but pretty tight on time especially if they also plan to show someone finding Jon's re-hidden Immunity Idol on Exile Island. To squeeze the Redemption Island Duel into the Finale they cut out "Rites of Passage". They also cut out "Rites of Passage" last season S28 Cagayan but that was likely due to the late Family Visit in the Finale.

I believe production would have removed Jon's idol from his bag whether or not they intended to re-hide it but that's the only fact that makes me think they might try to squeeze in a Reward Challenge since they know the season has been lackluster.

Here is the history again of the last 16 Finales since the Final 3 was introduced.

ONLY 2 Challenges in the Finale except for seasons with Redemption Island

S28 F4->F2 = 2 Challenges: 2xIC
S27 F5->F3 = 3 Challenges: 1xRIC, 2xIC
S26 F5->F3 = 2 Challenges: 1xRC, 1xIC (+Erik Medevac)
S25 F4->F3 = 2 Challenges: 1xRC, 1xIC
S24 F5->F3 = 2 Challenges: 2xIC
S23 F5->F3 = 3 Challenges: 1xRIC, 2xIC
S22 F5->F3 = 3 Challenges: 1xRIC, 2xIC
S21 F5->F3 = 2 Challenges: 2xIC
S20 F5->F3 = 2 Challenges: 2xIC
S19 F5->F3 = 2 Challenges: 2xIC
S18 F4->F2 = 2 Challenges: 2xIC
S17 F5->F3 = 2 Challenges: 2xIC
S16 F4->F2 = 2 Challenges: 2xIC
S15 F4->F3 = 2 Challenges: 1xRC, 1xIC
S14 F5->F3 = 2 Challenges: 2xIC
S13 F5->F3 = 2 Challenges: 2xIC

"RE: Preview vidcaps..."
Posted by Outsider32 on 12-13-14 at 02:29 AM
What day are they on now? Jac says she didn't come 36 days to get voted off. What day will be the f5 TC?
"RE: Preview vidcaps..."
Posted by michel2 on 12-13-14 at 03:55 AM
Jon was voted out on day 35. The F5TC will either be on day 36 or 37, the F4TC has to be day 38 and then FTC on day 39.

PS. They'd be fools to vote off Jaclyn at F5...unless everyone else is immune!

"12/13/14 promo"
Posted by tribephyl on 12-13-14 at 03:18 PM
Transcript and Vidcaps courtesy of SurvivorFever.net

VO: Survivor Finale Wednesday. 3 Tribal Councils. 2 Incredible Hours. 1 Final Blindside.


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Nothing really to glean from the caps themselves but.... oooooo...1 final blindside!

When is this final blindside? F5 or F4?
We know that neither Keith nor Jaclyn could be blindsided, so.... Natalie? Baylor?

"Promo..."
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-13-14 at 03:50 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-13-14 AT 03:52 PM (EST)

Edited out posting the same promo as Tribephyl above....whoopsy...great minds, and all that, Tribe!

For me, this screams Natalie as the next blindside. This season is coming together for me...I'm afraid...

"RE: Promo..."
Posted by tribephyl on 12-13-14 at 06:33 PM
Me too...
"RE: Promo..."
Posted by coldbrewer on 12-13-14 at 08:38 PM
Is the blindside F5 or F4? If it's F5, it can't be Natalie since she's got the HII. If Natalie were to be blindsided, it'd have to be F4. Has Keith made that dumb move yet?
"RE: Promo..."
Posted by Brownroach on 12-14-14 at 02:00 AM
LAST EDITED ON 12-14-14 AT 03:14 AM (EST)

I would guess F4 but the most interesting thing about this promo is the implication that only one of the next two TCs is going to have any voting suspense attached to it. So maybe there will be a Missy v. Baylor sacrifice at the other TC.

"RE: Promo..."
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-14-14 at 07:59 AM
Well, I think a blindside could only refer to someone in the majority alliance; Missy/Baylor/Natalie.

Would Missy going out with a bum leg really be that surprising?

I agree though, the first TC is probably someone that is in the minority, either Jaclyn or Keith.

Guys, regarding Keith and these last IC's....I seem to recall that ALL of the final tribals where their lives are on the line do include mazes, and physical obstacles, that require getting multiple puzzle bags and then completing a difficult puzzle. I think Malcolm and Denise's season they had to do a difficult 3 D puzzle. What makes anyone think that Keith can win challenges like these? I do think he can stay in it with the physical part, most likely stay ahead, but the puzzles really have me puzzled.

And, I see the only way he survives is by winning them both....

"RE: Promo..."
Posted by chemig902 on 12-14-14 at 12:27 PM
What if Nat were to win F5 II and give Keith her HII to balance out power at F4 with Baylor and Missy. Doesn't she have an F3 alliance with them? In that case Jac would go easily at F5. Missy would see better odds at FTC with Bumbling Keith than with strategist Nat, setting up the final blindside and Keith's "worst thing ever." I could further see a Survivor first at FTC as Bsylir turns her opening speech into an opportunity to fall on her sword and campaign for a Missy win. I don't think that would sit well with the jury.
"RE: Promo..."
Posted by Georganna on 12-14-14 at 01:42 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-14-14 AT 01:42 PM (EST)

I'm really glad to know that it isn't just me!

Because, the emphasis that's been placed on Keith's gratitude that now he 'has Natalie' and the emphasis being placed on the potential 'theft' of the Game could certainly be devices to underscore his ironic betrayal of her.

And Keith is a Leo (innately generous, reflexively candid and good-humored - but given to spur-of-the-moment, self-serving decisions and later regrets):

Outgoing, spontaneously warm-hearted and plain-spoken (but poor judges of character), Leo are more disillusioned than the average if let down by those they trust ...

(E)ven after they discover that they've been duped or abandoned, most Leos are too big about it – or too proud – to retaliate. Because they are usually incapable of actions that are in any way mean, base or underhanded, they have difficulty in recognizing those traits in others. In activities where these lower qualities are essential for success, the majority of Leo tend not to succeed ...

(However), after getting to know a Leo, you’ll discover that they’re very loyal: to themselves. You can come up against severe resistance if you try to bend the will of a Leo for the sake of a relationship. Their reputation for being ‘diva-difficult’ is well-earned. But, because so many of them grab the gusto and achieve their lofty goals, in the end their stubborn self-regard usually elicits widespread respect. ...

Remember (the Leo) Amanda's emotional turmoil resulting from her decision to abandon Denise? And, really, her difficulty with coming to terms with the dishonesty of the Game - and with her dishonesty during it - in each of her appearances in the Series? Perhaps that is the sort of reaction we're seeing in Finale vidcaps of the obviously-upset firefighter.

And, should Keith be responsible for a Natalie blindside, I wonder if we're in store for a very dramatic Final Tribal Council.

G

Note: Of course, (the Leo) Sandra has never seemed to have a problem with the mean, base and underhanded nuances of the Game ...

"RE: Promo..."
Posted by michel2 on 12-14-14 at 03:27 PM
>What if Nat were to win
>F5 II and give Keith
>her HII to balance out
>power at F4 with Baylor
>and Missy.

I don't think Natalie is dumb enough to keep Keith in the game.

"RE: Promo..."
Posted by Georganna on 12-14-14 at 04:18 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-14-14 AT 04:26 PM (EST)

But Natalie has seen Missy and Baylor dismiss Jon when they thought it was in their best interests to boot an ally. Why would she think that they would be any more loyal to her if the opportunity to go to the F3 with a weaker player (Jaclyn) presented itself?

And I think that perhaps Natalie would have believed that Keith would follow her direction through to F3 if for no other reason than that strategy is not his thing and that he was convinced that he needed her. A supposition that I think she was probably convinced she would have no problem selling to the Jury.

In fact, I think that perhaps Keith might have believed just that right up until it dawned on him that it was possible for him to actually win the thing.

G

"RE: Promo..."
Posted by michel2 on 12-14-14 at 05:30 PM
Natalie should know that Keith is her only challenger. Why save him?? Anyway, with Keith out of the way, Natalie would feel confident to win the F4 immunity.

How dumb would it be to save Keith at F5 only to have him win the F4 IC that sends Natalie home?

"RE: Promo..."
Posted by Georganna on 12-14-14 at 06:33 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-14-14 AT 06:39 PM (EST)

Keith may well be Natalie's 'only challenger'. But she has to get to the F3 to find out if that's so. And along her route there are three women who can't possibly believe that any one of them is going to win against her: Jon can only vote once. So, why would they (as an alliance of convenience) come to the conclusion at F4 (assuming that one of those stranger things that happen actually does and Natalie does not win that II) that it is in the best interest of any one, or two, or three of them to keep her in the Game?

From their perspective, 'How dumb would that be?'

And we have only my wild conjecture that Keith would ever turn on his benefactor, quashing the option of a 2-2 vote. I mean, borrowing a pinch of wisdom from the recently-departed Woo, with a Jury of Survivor purists and Natalie admirers to face, 'How dumb would that be?' ...

G

"RE: Promo..."
Posted by michel2 on 12-14-14 at 08:58 PM
Even if she saves Keith at F5, Natalie is still confronted with the fact that she needs to win immunity at F4 so what has she accomplished? Absolutely nothing except keeping a better challenge player in the game.

Keith could be as dumb as Woo but you can't count on that. This is Survivor. Also, consider that, from the jury's perspective, it would look like Keith outwitted Natalie, getting her to save him. She would be the one imitating Woo. Already, Jon left the game congratulating Keith on his great move.

I think Keith has only one way to win: Win the last two ICs.


"RE: Promo..."
Posted by Georganna on 12-14-14 at 09:29 PM
I think Keith has only one way to win: Win the last two ICs.

You certainly may be right. But if Keith is voted out at F5, I think that Natalie has only one way to win: Win the F4 IIC. Because not one of the ladies remaining in the Game have the slightest of reasons to consider her a benefactor or to pause for a moment to reflect upon their boot choice before they 'steal' the Game from her.

With Keith, there is at least a small ray of hope that if she fails to win the Immunity Necklace she might still survive the TC.

G

PS: And if we have a Final Three of that trio of insipid women, it's all your fault ...

"RE: Promo..."
Posted by Brownroach on 12-14-14 at 01:52 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-14-14 AT 01:55 PM (EST)

Would Missy going out with a bum leg really be that surprising?

No it wouldn't - that's my point. I think it's very likely that she will volunteer to be voted out at F5. So, no blindside excitement at that TC because everyone will know what's going to happen.

The 1 Final Blindside will be at F4 when Natalie no longer has her HII and most likely gets voted out.

"RE: Promo..."
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-14-14 at 03:27 PM
Well, you are making some solid points here, BR, par usual.

So, you are contemplating Missy volunteers to go out at F5...in order for that to occur, then Keith has the IN, Natalie has the HII, leaving Jaclyn, Missy, Baylor as the boot choices.

You really think that Missy would volunteer to go out when she is in the majority alliance and could easily swing the vote to Jaclyn? I don't know. If she volunteers to go out at F5, the F4=Baylor, Natalie, Keith, Jaclyn
Keith, Baylor or Jaclyn win the IN=Blindside of Natalie, F3= Keith, Baylor, Jaclyn

I don't know...even though they talked about it, I don't see Missy stepping down, when she is so close to a million dollars and so much could happen...

"RE: Promo..."
Posted by kingfish on 12-14-14 at 06:13 PM
I think it would be surprising if Missy volunteered to go unless she thought that the voting was going to go against Baylor and by volunteering she could protect Baylor. With Jac and especially Keith as targets, she probably won't think that. By staying, her vote and influence would also be some protection for Baylor.

The only other reason she might volunteer is if the pain was too great, and she’s already shown resistance to that. Maybe after a few sleepless nights with throbbing ankle pain, she might weaken.

"RE: Promo..."
Posted by Brownroach on 12-14-14 at 10:43 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-16-14 AT 11:16 AM (EST)

I think if Missy does volunteer it will be because the pain of her injury gets worse and she feels that immediate medical attention is in order.

The thing is, we know from Jon that one of them (i.e. Baylor) volunteering to leave before F3 was part of their plan. With Missy's injury she might decide maybe it's just as well to flip the script.

Otherwise Keith would probably get booted at F5. Which is certainly possible. It wouldn't seem a blindside to the general viewership. ETA: Except we now know that Keith gets to F4, so forget that idea.

"12/14/14 Promo"
Posted by tribephyl on 12-14-14 at 07:02 PM
Transcript and Vidcaps courtesy of SurvivorFever.net

JP (starting challenge): Go!
VO: Don't miss the Survivor Season Finale and Live Reunion show. CBS, this Wednesday.


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"RE: 12/14/14 Promo"
Posted by Georganna on 12-14-14 at 09:06 PM

Same device?

"RE: 12/14/14 Promo"
Posted by tribephyl on 12-14-14 at 10:33 PM
Nope.
"RE: 12/14/14 Promo"
Posted by Georganna on 12-14-14 at 10:39 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-14-14 AT 10:40 PM (EST)

Drat! ...

On second thought ... Whew!

"RE: 12/14/14 Promo"
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-14-14 at 10:46 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-14-14 AT 10:57 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 12-14-14 AT 10:50 PM (EST)

First of all, Georgianna, what are you implying with your pics? That Keith is at a challenge, that they got tree mail? I don't get it but it looks like something?

Vidcaps: Clearly there are 2 challenges here....

One of them is the belted, attached to the wire and go through the challenge. Here is Jaclyn at the beginning of it:

She's wearing the buff on the head, her bra, and a buff around her chest...

Here she is in the midst of this challenge:


Belted and tethered. Note Jaclyn is RED

Now, here is Keith at the same challenge, hat on backwards and buff around his neck...

Here is Natalie at the tethered challenge, she's PURPLE...

She is next to the teal blue color. Here is Baylor at the tethered challenge, she's YELLOW....She is next to Natalie, the PURPLE....so Nat is next to teal blue and yellow.


NOW, here are Natalie, Missy, and Keith at a DIFFERENT challenge:

Note the sea in the background, they are closer to the shore than the other challenge, and Natalie does not have her buff on her forehead as she did in the tethered challenge.

Keith is doing the YELLOW puzzle. The same color that Baylor had in the other challenge. They both cannot be doing the same color in the same challenge....also note that his buff is not on his neck, and he doesn't have a tether belt on....


Also, here is Missy at most likely the same challenge that Keith is seen doing the puzzle...note, she has no tether belt on...


So....Keith is seen at BOTH challenges. I have to conclude that since Keith has survived to see the F4 challenge, that Jaclyn will not. So, the challenge with the tether must be the F5 challenge where we see Natalie, Baylor, and Jaclyn doing it and Keith as he arrives.

The F4 challenge then is with Missy and Keith, no belts.

If there is going to be a blindside, it's most likely one of Missy/Baylor/Natalie. Will Keith remain loyal to Natalie? I don't think so...Natalie most likely blindsided at F4 by her alliance mates, Missy/Bay/Keith.

F3: Keith/Missy/Baylor...

**Cannot believe they have a pitching challenge...boys are SOOOO much better at this than girls, imo....favoring Keith!


"RE: 12/14/14 Promo"
Posted by Georganna on 12-14-14 at 10:57 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-14 AT 12:43 PM (EST)

FP ...

I thought that the metal 'contraption' hanging in the tree to Missy's left at the Challenge and the one hanging in the tree to Keith's left in the first pic might be two of the same thing.

And, if they had been, then I think that we would have had to consider the possiblity that Keith was (a) at the Challenge and (b) unhappily out of it.

But Tribe says 'Nope' and I'm fairly certain that his eyes are much sharper than mine.

G

"RE: 12/14/14 Promo"
Posted by michel2 on 12-14-14 at 11:07 PM
FP, don't forget that one of the two challenges shown could be for reward.
"RE: 12/14/14 Promo"
Posted by Georganna on 12-14-14 at 11:33 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-14 AT 05:46 AM (EST)

FP ...

At (Sucks) Mess Hall TC, the speculation seems to have distilled to an opinion that there are three Challenges pictured:

1. The tethered game

2. The ball contest (Missy pictured) that they refer to as 'Simmotion'

and

3. The ladder-to-puzzle contest.


And that they are probably in that order as:


1. The F5 Reward Challenge

2. The F5 Immunity Challenge

and

3. The F4 Immunity Challenge.


But I haven't the slightest idea whether knowing that helps or hurts the cause ...

G

"12/14/14 Promo II"
Posted by tribephyl on 12-14-14 at 10:32 PM
Transcript and Vidcaps courtesy of SurvivorFever.net

VO: Survivor Finale, Wednesday. Five castaways remain.
Baylor (camera confessional): I can see a finish line.
Missy (camera confessional): We have two shots at a million bucks.
VO: Three Tribal Councils.
Jaclyn (camera confessional): I'm not going down without a fight.
Keith (camera confessional): I think I got this baby.
VO: One final blindside.
Natalie (camera confessional): Big moves do win this game and I feel like I have a little bit of room to be nervous.


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"RE: 12/14/14 Promo II"
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-14-14 at 11:00 PM
Jaclyn is wearing Julie's bathing suit, it appears?
"Simmotion"
Posted by Outsider32 on 12-15-14 at 02:04 AM
You can see the simotion tabless behind them with the 5 castaways shown. I don't know if that and the puzzle/ladder is the same or not though. If not Keith is in two ICs. If that is reward(simmotion) then the tether challenge who is in the light blue? It cannot be Missy.
"RE: S29 | Finale Episode | Vidcap Analysis *No Sources*"
Posted by joker4667 on 12-15-14 at 11:10 AM
hello from the philippines. i have been a fan of survivor since season 1 and a lurker on this thread. i really enjoy reading all the speculations/predictions done by you guys.

not sure if somebody has already raised this but regarding the final blindside.. what if all the non-blood tribemates left band together and vote out either missy and baylor at f5? just throwing things around.

from the editing, it appears that natalie is only one left who has made some big moves so far: being vocal against rocker, orchestrating the jon boot. while this looks good at the end game, all strategists in this season have fallen out of the game so i am not so sure.

will be waiting for the east coast spoiler tomorrow as i cannot wait to know how this season ends. thank you guys for all the wonderful posts!

"Welcome..."
Posted by tribephyl on 12-15-14 at 01:37 PM
...out of lurkdom!
Glad to have you on board.
I hope to see you more frequently for next season, yes?
Have some mini-cookies. I dunno where the official welcome committee crap-basket is so these will have to do.

"Hiya Joker!"
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-15-14 at 01:45 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-14 AT 01:46 PM (EST)

Welcome to Blows! So happy you decided to get off the ledge and make a post here! The more the merrier and thanks so much for your thoughts. You know, the more I play around with the vidcaps the more I am leaning your way...fwiw!

I do think that there are 3 challenges now seen in the vidcaps...I have re-evaluated, as Georgiana and Michel have alluded to. This picture confirms it:

Outsider noted the simmotion tables behind the contestants, which apparently is from a previous challenge. Anyone have any vidcaps or video from the previous simmotion challenge? Sure would love to see it.

So: Here are the 3 challenges pictured:

First there is the tethered to the rope challenge with untwisting rope, then throwing balls...Here is Natalie at the start of it:

Then, here are 3 peeps in the midst of the challenge:

Baylor, who is at the second station and has her untangled rope with her....beginning the second stage of the challenge....note her color is yellow and she is right next to Natalie's area, the purple.

Here is Natalie in the purple lane....note the structures behind her. I think they have to get that bag which is full of balls to throw at the pyramid?

Then, here is Jaclyn in the red area, note the first structure has the rope all twisted and tangled over the circular structure. She has to untangle it al, all the while being tethered to the large ropel...

.

That is the first challenge = Tethered challenge

Then there is the simmotion challenge as seen here:


So, the simmotion challenge has to occur with F5, all are seen there.

Then, finally the last challenge:

Jaclyn and Keith are both seen at the same challenge with a much taller structure in the background with steps up it....


Which I now believe goes with this:

Note that Keith is in the yellow color, which can't go with the tethered challenge because Baylor had yellow for that one.

So, definitively, 3 challenges:

1. Tethered challenge
2. simmotion challenge
3. structure with puzzle challenge

2 IC's, 1 RC
Baylor most likely goes to EI...

Keith is seen at 1 of the challenges: Puzzle
Jaclyn is seen at 2 of the 3: Tether and puzzle
Natalie is at 1 of the challenges: Tether
Baylor at 1 of the challenges: Tether
Missy at 1 of the challenges: Simmotion

I have put them in the order that I think they belong, but I will let you guys speculate on it...

"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by Georganna on 12-15-14 at 02:51 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-14 AT 04:01 PM (EST)

FP ...

Thanks for doing all of this. Putting everything in order certainly helps!

Here is a link to the Simmotion Challenge at Survivor Wiki. I edited my earlier post to include it, but, evidently, it was lost in the muddled translation ...

And here is the Tocantins (YouTube Video) version as it was played by Erinn, Stephen and JT at that Season's Final Immunity Challenge: Simmotion.

It also appeared in South Pacific as a Duel between Stacey and Christine. Here is the link to that (YouTube Video) version of the Challenge: Simmotion.

However, the Challenge has obviously been tweaked for its appearance in San Juan del Sur.

G

"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-15-14 at 03:45 PM
OMG, Georgiana, that's amazing, thanks so much for all the references! Clearly, you can see that once something fails with the apparatus then the challenge is over. Having another "puzzle" station at the end of this challenge is mute. That seals the deal. 3 challenges stand. Clearly the simmation challenge is tweaked for this season. You can see multiple balls available, but they must use the pans to transfer a ball from one station to the next? I don't know, but clearly there is no need for a puzzle!


"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by Georganna on 12-15-14 at 03:57 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-14 AT 04:25 PM (EST)


Keith is seen at 1 of the challenges: Puzzle
Jaclyn is seen at 2 of the 3: Tether and puzzle
Natalie is at 1 of the challenges: Tether
Baylor at 1 of the challenges: Tether
Missy at 1 of the challenges: Simmotion

If we consider the fact that all five of the surviving players are shown at the Simmotion Challenge, then Jaclyn appears to be present at all three Challenges and is through to the Final Four.

Natalie has an HII and is virtually guaranteed a Final Four spot.

And if the Ladders/Puzzle Challenge is, indeed, the last of the Challenges, it appears that Keith has joined Jaclyn and Natalie there.

Leaving Missy or Baylor to be booted at F5.


But, if the Tether Challenge is the F4 Individual Immunity Challenge - we are able to see only four stations/courses at the Challenge - then the candidates for the F5 Boot appear to be Keith or Missy.

Note: StopBanningMe at Mess Hall TC has made the astute observation that it appears that the player running the fourth visible course has advanced beyond the station shown. And that it would be highly unlikely for it to have been Missy. Leaving Keith. And making it appear that he is also present at all three Challenges.

And, if so, we're back to Missy or Baylor as the F5 boot choices.


I think (?). It's ... complicated.

G

"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-15-14 at 04:24 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-14 AT 08:03 PM (EST)

G: YES!!!

Jaclyn IS seen at all of the challenges, if we are correct in calling this shot, the puzzle challenge...

So she MUST be in the F4!
Natalie is also in the F4...Yes. You are on the same path that I am, but not quite...YAY! Now, think about it....do you think Keith can win a puzzle challenge with ALOT of pieces? I know the girls haven't looked to good at it either, but Natalie did take control of the last reward challenge...

In order for Keith to make the F4 challenge, he has to WIN the F5 challenge. So, I don't think the puzzle challenge is the challenge he wins, so I think it belongs with the F5 challenges. Therefore, F5 RC and IC are the simmation challenge and the tether challenge. With this logic the Final F4 challenge must be the puzzle challenge, and most likely Keith does not win it.

So, if Keith, Jaclyn, Natalie all make the F4, then one of Baylor or Missy has to go in the F5 TC....it's touted as the final blindside...a blindside because Missy/Baylor/Natalie are the majority alliance.

I'll bet Missy lays it down for Baylor. Jon told us in his exit interviews that Jac was planning on getting out before Baylor volunteered to go. They wanted to vote for their Loved One to win, and they wanted to solicit jury votes for them as well. Now that Missy is hurt, I think she will lay down for Baylor....fwiw.

ETA: SORRY, posted the wrong picture in here, UGH! Now it's fixed!

"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by Georganna on 12-15-14 at 05:04 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-14 AT 06:28 PM (EST)


FP ...

Referring to the Tether Challenge, I added this to my earlier post (a bad habit that I'm trying to break):

Note: StopBanningMe at Mess Hall TC has made the astute observation that it appears that the player running the fourth visible course has advanced beyond the station shown. And that it would be highly unlikely for it to have been Missy. Leaving Keith. And making it appear that he is also present at all three Challenges.

And, if so, we're back to Missy or Baylor as the F5 boot choices.

So, I'm almost convinced that Keith, Natalie and Jaclyn are three of our F4. We do disagree about Keith - I don't think that he has to win the F5 IIC to make it to the F4 - but , if we've come to the correct conclusion about the vidcaps, that's a moot point.

As for Missy and Baylor:

If it happens that Exile Island and another HII are in play at F5. And Baylor goes there. And finds it. I think that, given her "I'll carry her on my back to the finish line" grand flourish, Missy (the quick-witted, clever, duplicitous and articulate Gemini) will be the one that the two choose to present their case to the Jury. In any other scenario, I think that the other three players will see to it that Missy joins the Jurors.

Of course, there is outstanding Natalie's vow to valiantly assist Baylor's valiant assistance of her Mom. And Natalie is an Aries with a talent for theatre. And it would certainly be a "big move" if she were to be the one to hand a (suddenly communal but ceremonial) HII to Missy at F5.

Wouldn't it?

ETA: And if you "carry" the injured Missy to F4 - where, goodness!, there are no more HIIs to be had - it is almost certain that you've eliminated one of your competitors before the Final Immunity Challenge even begins and done your best to maximize your options at F4.

Haven't you?

G

"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by michel2 on 12-15-14 at 05:50 PM
"Note: StopBanningMe at Mess Hall TC has made the astute observation that it appears that the player running the fourth visible course has advanced beyond the station shown. And that it would be highly unlikely for it to have been Missy. Leaving Keith. And making it appear that he is also present at all three Challenges. "

I don't know on which vidcap this specualtion is based but it's possible that instead of being ahead, the 4th "competitor" decided they had no chance to win that challenge because of a twisted ankle and simply didn't compete.

"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by Georganna on 12-15-14 at 06:37 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-15-14 AT 07:22 PM (EST)

Michel,

This is the vidcap:


ETA | And it is because you may well be right that I initially wrote (in Post 46):

But, if the Tether Challenge is the F4 Individual Immunity Challenge - we are
able to see only four stations/courses at the Challenge - then the candidates
for the F5 Boot appear to be Keith or Missy.


Note: StopBanningMe at Mess Hall TC has made the astute observation that it
appears that the player running the fourth visible course has advanced beyond the
station shown. And that it would be highly unlikely for it to have been Missy.
Leaving Keith. And making it appear that he is also present at all three Challenges.


And, if so, we're back to Missy or Baylor as the F5 boot choices.

G

"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-15-14 at 08:18 PM
Yes, I agree with that statement the StopBanningMe made at Mess Hall. You can see the first station in the challenge. The round structure that had all the ropes twisted and tangled...you can see that the person running the blue track has untangled all the rope and has moved beyond that structure. But, since there is another structure before the throwing balls station, it is impossible to say if Keith is ahead or behind Natalie at this point...

And, I agree that there is enough proof now that both Keith and Jaclyn make it to the F4 challenge, along with Natalie. So one of Missy or Baylor is going down at F5.

G: I love hearing the influence their sun signs have on the players....LOVE it! So, what can we predict....that if anyone vows out at either of the TC's, between Missy and Baylor, you would expect it to be Baylor? I thought it would be too, if it came down to it because Missy could make the better case. However, now with her bum ankle, I think Baylor may have the better argument? No?

Will be SO interesting to see what pans out!

"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by Georganna on 12-17-14 at 02:17 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-17-14 AT 04:14 PM (EST)

G: I love hearing the influence their sun signs have on the players....LOVE it! So, what can we predict....that if anyone vows out at either of the TC's, between Missy and Baylor, you would expect it to be Baylor? I thought it would be too, if it came down to it because Missy could make the better case. However, now with her bum ankle, I think Baylor may have the better argument? No?

It is a matter of natural fact that being a member of a minority is almost always a disadvantage. No matter how the society in question is being assessed. By age. By gender. By race. By ethnicity. By height. By weight. By income ...

And if the society in question is Survivor and the assessment is by Sun Sign nativity (psychological profile), being a member of the Season's Minority is much more than merely a disadvantage. Historically, it has been almost certainly an insurmountable barrier to winning the Game.

Because:

Six of the now-completed twenty-nine Games have been played by casts evenly divided between Earth and Water | Fire and Air natives. And in those instances, I have yet to find any pattern that indentifies an inherent advantage to either side.

But, in the now-completed twenty-three Games (including San Juan del Sur) with Majority | Minority Sun Sign populations, twenty (or 87%) have been won by a Majority native. So that is the first, and the most fundamental, way that a Survivor's Sun Sign affects him | her in the Game.

And, because it allows us - as a practical matter - to eliminate 44% | 45% of a Season's cast from our list of viable candidates for its winner, I love to see those 56% - 44% or 55% | 45% splits. Note: The most recent of those Seasons were Philippines (Earth and Water Majority) and Blood v Water I (Fire and Air Majority).

San Juan del Sur is, however, about as far from that ideal as it's possible to get. The split this Season was 83% - 17% (Fire and Air Majority) And its three Minority cast members - Reed (Earth | Virgo), Josh (Water | Cancer) and Valesay (Water | Scorpio) have all left the Game.

But, I think that JP helped us enormously with vetting that fifteen-member Majority when he announced that he would never have imagined San Juan del Sur's winner to be that at the beginning of the Season.

So, prompted by his 'Give me a day or two and we'll figure all this out ... see what happens' - and - by JP's observation that watching Keith learn to play the Game was great fun - and - by the fact that I could not imagine that Jeff Probst would ever imagine Keith to be a winner before the Season filmed, I said on October 10th (in, as you know, two threads) that I thought that the older firefighter might well be this Season's Sole Survivor. After all, Mr. Probst's comment presupposed that Keith would be with us for a while. And that he would learn to play the Game. Note: And I figure that we still have that to look forward to in the Finale.

And because Fire Signs are much better at dealing with unorthodox environments (and at creating them) than are Air Signs, two weeks later (between October 22 - 29) I said that I thought that a Fire native would win the Game. And because of the host's emphasis on the theory that the Game would be stolen by someone - from a more-suitable someone - I also said that I thought that the Fire native would be Keith or Jaclyn (Leo) or Natalie (Aries). At that time, thieves all.

Of course, Natalie has now become a member of the imagination establishment. And her curiously-quiet and vigorously- scrubbed edit makes of her one of the two (Missy | Baylor being the other) remaining more-suitable someones from whom the Game may now be stolen.

But, all three of my Fire natives are in the Final Five. So far | So good ...

I have no idea, though, what will happen next. As I said in my opening comments in this Season's Signs of Survivor, this cast is a very different mix than any other. The Series has never before had this many Fire and Air Signs on its beaches. The nearest comparison is Fiji with a 63% - 37% (Fire and Air Majority) split and an Aries (Fire) Sole Survivor.

And the hallmark of these personalities is independence-to-rebellion, spontaneity-to-chaos. So even those among them who bothered to learn the mores of the Game can't be trusted to play by them. And Jeremy (obviously a Capricorn masquerading as an Aries), Josh (the Cancer) and Jeff (the Scorpio) seem to be convinced that none - sans Jeremy - bothered.

But if events dictate that Missy and Baylor must/are able to decide who stays in the Game and who leaves to lobby the Jury, then I think Missy will remain:

Both the Gemini and the Aquarius are comfortable with the spoken word. But the more patient and analytical Aquarius is usually more skilled at protracted persuasion and the theatrical Gemini more adept at inspirational rhetoric. Too, that theatrical Gemini loves a spotlight and is unlikely to give it up readily. It would not surprise me if it turns out that 'This is - Missy's - Time'. Because, even with the promise of a grand exit from an international stage in the offing, I think that Missy would prefer the faint hope of an encore to the faint hope that Baylor could win the Final Four IIC.

And, that the latter would be a faint hope is, I think, confirmed by that introduction to the Finale. Because its treatment of the mother and daughter appears to trumpet that whither one goeth the other will follow. Soon.

Note: But I also said (in October) that I thought that the Fire natives, Jaclyn and Jon, were the only couple capable of arriving at the Final Three - together. And that hasn't gone well.

And with that I'm off to Vote (B | M | J | N | K) and Enter.

And ... to attempt to breathe some life into Signs of Survival. If nothing else, perhaps as a semi-annual retrospective it will become a revered 'tween-season tradition ...

Stop by when you can ...

G


"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by kingfish on 12-15-14 at 05:53 PM
I would suppose that Missy was not winning the tether course (RC, right?), but that she didn't compete.
"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by kingfish on 12-15-14 at 05:24 PM
That is a reasonable set of circumstance in which Missy would throw a challenge to allow Baylor to continue. Sort of.

But I'm guessing that neither Jac nor Keith (nor Natalie, really) are laying down at the F5 IC, and Missy can't make that decision unless she and Baylor are miles ahead of the others. Those Simmotion challenges are just a pick up your ball and start over type of thing, so no one is eliminated like in the endurance challenges.

So unless Baylor and Missy are vying for the win and are nearing the end of the challenge, odds are that she won't even have to chance to throw it to Baylor.

But it could happen, and the reasoning that either Missy or Baylor go is compelling, thanks to you and G.

Natalie won't go, Jac and Keith are at F4, and a Missy eviction isn't a surprise or a blindside in any stretch of the imagination.

So Baylor? Could it be?

(BTW, I wonder if the producers could have substituted something that Missy could compete in for a more physical F4 Immunity Challenge that might have been originally planned. It would have been a daunting logistic challenge, but they had a week or so to get it together. And I'm sure that they have contingency challenge set ups in their back pockets just in case they need them. Aren't the final ICs usually an endurance test?)


"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by joker4667 on 12-15-14 at 05:51 PM
thank you for the welcome!

some comments:
(a) the scene post-merge showing jaclyn yelling at natalie --> grudge maybe for voting out jon? she may be the one who would orchestrate the vote against nat. (similar to how nat targeted jon) but how? the alliance of nat/missy/baylor seems tight unless she wins immunity and keith got the hidden II which was not used by jon. m/b already knows nat has another hidden II so it will not come across as a blindside if either one of them gets voted out.

(b) i agree that a blindside will apply to n/m/b unless this is overhyped and keith gets voted out (him feeling safe because of his "alliance" with nat) before jaclyn

(c) from the remaining players, only nat seems to be capable of strategy unless jac/keith suddenly develops brain cells. at this point, if ever there would be a blindside, seems that she will be the instigator, not the recipient of it.

ooohh.. this is getting fun. apologies if my thoughts are all over the place. just the excitement, lol.

"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by Georganna on 12-15-14 at 07:02 PM
I wonder if the producers could have substituted something that Missy could compete in for a more physical F4 Immunity Challenge that might have been originally planned.

I hope not.

To me, they've already stretched the editorial license of a game show to its limit by permitting Missy to remain in the competition. If they substitute a Challenge in order to accommodate her incapacity, it would be as if the producers of Jeopardy substituted a Final Category specifically designed to negate the educational weaknesses of one of its three contestants for the non-prejudicial, previously-selected one.

I don't think that would be fair. And the CBS motto is 'Fair and Balanced', is it not? Or is it ... not? And I am merely hopelessly confused yet again ...


G

"RE: Hiya Joker!"
Posted by kingfish on 12-15-14 at 09:48 PM
After the years of witnessing the photo-fakery and hint mislead-ery to which these producers will stoop, I can believe anything.

But I hope you're right, even though no matter what the plans are/were, it's not an official challenge until Jeff says it is, much like the cat's not dead until you open the box.

"3 challenges"
Posted by tribephyl on 12-15-14 at 08:14 PM
Definitely 3 different challenges.

F5RC, F5IC and F4IC...


Final 5 at Simmotion RC

JP at Simmotion RC

Missy at Simmotion RC


Baylor at Simmotion RC

Keith at Simmotion RC

F5 IC






Jaclyn at F5 IC

Baylor at F5 IC

Natalie at F5 IC

F4 IC


Jaclyn with what looks like the giant staircase behind her.

Keith at F4 IC

"YESSSSS!"
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-15-14 at 08:26 PM
YESSSS Tribe, You have it correct, I think! I think the Simmotion Challenge is for reward, because I think this shot, the start of the tether challenge, at F5 IC, is when Baylor comes back from EI....

And, we see the IN on Natalie's neck, she will be returning it! WELL DONE!!! At first I thought the simmation challenge would be for IC, but I was wrong....this solidifies the challenge order and solidifies that Keith and Jaclyn both make it to the F4 challenge.

Clearly, Missy or Baylor will go at F5 TC!

"Press Images"
Posted by tribephyl on 12-15-14 at 07:52 PM
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"RE: Press Images"
Posted by kingfish on 12-15-14 at 10:06 PM
Let's keep our heads here, it is not reasonable that Missy can even participate in, much be winning this challenge:


And what the heck is this?

1. The tethered game (F5)
2. Simmotion (F5)
3. The platform puzzle contest.(F4)
4. It appears to be a second F4 challenge? It isn't any of the three previously identified challenges, apparently each of the F4 survivors have to go thru each set of 5 contraptions and collect a colored ornament, and put them on a table. This would be a nogo for Missy.

"RE: Press Images"
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-16-14 at 00:40 AM
LAST EDITED ON 12-16-14 AT 00:44 AM (EST)

Hi King!

This vidcap:

goes with this vidcap:

The top pic is the latter half of the same challenge....lol! The big tall structure with the puzzle tables on the top is just beyond those 4 tables in the middle on the ground....couldn't fit the entire challenge in one picture...fwiw.

There are 5 separate structures at the bottom of the picture with puzzle bags at each of them. They have to navigate them all, collect their respective bags of puzzles then race to the top to finish their puzzle...

Here is Keith at his table at the top doing the puzzle...

As Tribe pointed out....

F5 RC = Simmotion
F5 IC = Tethered Challenge
F4 IC = The challenge above, the "puzzle" challenge

"RE: Press Images"
Posted by kingfish on 12-16-14 at 09:41 AM
Thanks. That does explain it.

It looks pretty strenuous, it'd be difficult for Missy, but if she makes it this far, just competing in this one will give her some serious cachet with the jury.

I don't think that if she's F3, that anyone can beat her.

Any idea what the "TV PG L" sign means?

"RE: Press Images"
Posted by michel2 on 12-16-14 at 06:18 PM
It,s not part of survivor but a parental advisory. I'm pretty sure it means that for a TV show, parental guidance is needed due to (coarse) Language.
"RE: Press Images"
Posted by kingfish on 12-16-14 at 10:17 PM
<Red face> Thanks. For some reason I thought that that was a sign affixed to the pole, and if it had been it would have been odd.

But it's an inset to warn against Keith's (spit) cussing. Of course.

"RE: Press Images"
Posted by Brownroach on 12-17-14 at 00:35 AM
Actually it's the very last piece of the puzzle that needs to be inserted. When you have all the other pieces correctly assembled, the sign will fly off the pole and land in its designated spot. 😀
"RE: S29 | Finale Episode | Vidcap Analysis *No Sources*"
Posted by Georganna on 12-15-14 at 11:08 PM
CAPTION THIS ...


"RE: S29 | Finale Episode | Vidcap Analysis *No Sources*"
Posted by Outsider32 on 12-16-14 at 01:47 AM
There is something that was interestingly brought up over at Sucks. Remember when Nadiya got voted out and who was one of the ones instrumental in it? Jaclyn was an ally of hers and could possibly let Nat know about what Baylor did and maybe Nat turns on M/B.
"RE: S29 | Finale Episode | Vidcap Analysis *No Sources*"
Posted by Brownroach on 12-16-14 at 02:05 AM
Natalie already made an F3 alliance with Baylor and Missy since she was convinced she could beat them at F3. What bearing could Nadiya's boot possibly have at this point?
"RE: S29 | Finale Episode | Vidcap Analysis *No Sources*"
Posted by Outsider32 on 12-16-14 at 02:45 AM
Idk. It was not my thinking. It was off of someone else. I thought it was worth thinking about. Natalie can beat three of the four left honestly I don't know if she can beat Keith or not but she would have three votes against him at least. If Jaclyn, Keith, and Nat in f3 Josh/Reed/Jeremy are probably going Nat, Jon is going Jac, Wes is going Keith. It comes down to who M/B and Alec vote for. Nat would need one vote from them. If Missy or Baylor are in f3 they get the other's vote. Nat still gets the three votes, Keith gets Wes. JJ and Alec are the swing votes. So more than likely Nat has Keith beat.

We do know based on what we saw one of B/M are out next. If it is the blindside, then something has to go down. If Missy decides to go then the blindside is at f4.

"RE: S29 | Finale Episode | Vidcap Analysis *No Sources*"
Posted by michel2 on 12-16-14 at 06:22 PM
It would be surprising that she didn't know but what if Natalie, wanting to make it look like it didn't bother her, never asked about Nadyia's boot?

If Natalie tells Jaclyn that she booted Jon for what he did to Jeremy then Jaclyn would have to ask Natalie why she's going with Baylor when she booted Nadyia. It could put a damper on the F3 plans.

"RE: S29 | Finale Episode | Vidcap Analysis *No Sources*"
Posted by Brownroach on 12-16-14 at 06:58 PM
It's possible that Natalie never asked, or Baylor might have told Natalie herself once they became friends. But it happened ages ago, the very first vote of the game: alliances hadn't totally gelled, and other people wanted Nadiya gone anyway. Baylor didn't engineer Nadiya's boot, she just went along with it because of Josh. I can't see that mattering to Natalie at this stage of the game.

But Jaclyn does have reason to want Natalie gone now. I don't think Natalie can concoct any seemingly innocent excuse this time.

"RE: S29 | Finale Episode | Vidcap Analysis *No Sources*"
Posted by michel2 on 12-16-14 at 09:30 PM
I know it's a stretch but we've heard that Baylor can't own up to her game and natalie say that she didn't want to talk about Nadyia so that it won't show that it bothers her. Seeing Natalie turn on Baylor would tie up those loose ends.
"S29 | Ep14 | Challenge Preview"
Posted by Sheldor on 12-16-14 at 05:33 AM
Survivor: San Juan Del Sur
Final Five Immunity Challenge Promo
http://www.survivorfever.net/vc_s29_challenge_ep14.html


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSugN8XMEEw
Published on Dec 15, 2014

Challenge Producer John Kirhoffer takes us behind-the-scenes for a first look at this week’s challenge “Pole Dancing,” featured on the season finale of SURVIVOR, Wednesday, Dec. 17 (8:00-11:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.


Transcript by SurvivorFever.net:

John Kirhoffer <Survivor Challenges Producer>: This is called Pole Dancing. In the original version we had poles then we changed poles to having corrals and forgot to change the name. In this challenge, individual players will have a belt and a bit of rope attached to them. They will have to unspool as much rope as they think they need to make it over this timber bridge, to a table with sandbags. Then they throw sandbags at a series of blocks. The first player to knock off all 15 blocks from their table wins Reward.

Full Transcript:

John Kirhoffer <Survivor Challenges Producer>: This is called Pole Dancing. Why? In the original version we had some poles and some ropes then we changed from having poles and ropes to having corrals with ropes and forgot to change the name and Corral Daning is a terrible name. In this challenge, individual players (5 of them) will have a belt and a bit of rope attached to it. They will have to unspool as much rope as they think they need to make it over this timber bridge, to a table with sandbags. Then they throw sandbags at a series of blocks. The first player to knock OFF all 15 blocks from their table wins Reward.

That Reward is one of the best ones of the season but you're going to have to watch to find out what it is.

(I guess they changed "Pole Dancing" to an Immunity Challenge instead of a Reward challenge)

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"RE: S29 | Ep14 | Challenge Preview"
Posted by michel2 on 12-16-14 at 06:28 PM
Pole Dancing? That pretty much has to be designed for Jaclyn and Baylor! Maybe Keith will receive some dollar bills to tip the girls!
"RE: S29 | Ep14 | Challenge Preview"
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-17-14 at 08:15 AM
Pole Dancing? That pretty much has to be designed for Jaclyn and Baylor! Maybe Keith will receive some dollar bills to tip the girls!

Hahahaha! Actually, this really gets me....girls are terrible at throwing overhand, imo. At least most girls are. This would be so hard for a girl to win it, imo. This is tailor made for Keith, the fireman....ugh.

The simmotion challenge was slated to be the IC....I wouldn't be surprised to see that they changed it to accommodate Keith....just saying'....ugh!

"Great Vidcap Challenge Analysis!"
Posted by Sheldor on 12-16-14 at 07:25 AM
GREAT job everyone with the vidcap analysis of the 3 challenges!

michel you were right about squeezing in a Reward Challenge and I assume they wanted to do that to provide another idol.

I am surprised though that the modified Simmotion challenge is for Reward and not Immunity since Missy has a chance in this challenge. Also the tethered challenge seems more like a Reward challenge and John K.'s preview he says it is for Reward so I wonder why they swapped challenges?

If Baylor goes to Exile Island isn't her chances very high of finding Jon's re-hidden idol? Does she play it for her Mom and get blindsided out?

I'm a bit confused by this Jaclyn photo with blurry stairs in the background:

What is the Bright Green at sharp angle behind the stairs?

In the F4 Immunity Challenge structure...

The middle stairs is *solid*. The staircase to the right (for Jeff to climb) is "hollow" but behind it to the right is just trees. Nothing bright green or is that just an optical illusion or maybe they added some Green Flags/Banners/Paint?

I want to be sure this is not some old episode footage of Jaclyn but I can't think of another stairs/ladder.

Also, why is there a bench at the top of Jeff's stairs?

Finally, surprised they show Keith at the Final 4 IC!

"RE: Great Vidcap Challenge Analysis!"
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-16-14 at 08:35 AM
Sheldor: I think the green behind Jaclyn's picture, and there is one like that for Keith as well is that the lens of the camera is focused on the person, closer, and that blurs the green in the vegetation in the background. In other words, the green is the lush forest leaves in mass.

The stairs are for Jiffy, imo, and for uncle camera man/production. Because it is a puzzle with many pieces it is likely to take a while, so they can sit down as well....:-P

"RE: Great Vidcap Challenge Analysis!"
Posted by Sheldor on 12-16-14 at 08:45 PM
Thanks Flowerpower! That makes sense.

The new promo with Natalie cover photo has a longer pan of Natalie walking by the same structure with lots of green peeking through and seems more obvious the F4 Immunity Challenge stairs.

"S29 | Finale Episode | Sneak Peak"
Posted by Sheldor on 12-16-14 at 08:07 PM
Survivor - This Is My Time (Sneak Peek)


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbxhy2zaQZk

1 Minute 54 Seconds from the Finale!

Published on Dec 15, 2014

The final five compete for a spot in the last Tribal Council and the $1 million prize, on the two-hour season finale of Survivor, Wednesday, Dec. 17 at 8/7c. Only CBS

Unfortunately NO screen captures yet on Survivor Fever

Transcript:

Jeff: Five are left. Missy and Baylor. They are the only pair of loved ones remaining. No strangers to adversity (scene from their Sumo at Sea challenge) they've stuck together through Missy's multiple divorces and are four days from achieving their goal of making it to the end together.

Missy: (Nothing on her Left Leg): I fought like Hell to stay in this game, keep my daughter in this game, but we have to keep fighting.

Baylor: There is a million dollars at the finish line. All of our dreams could be fulfilled.


Jeff: Natalie. After her sister Nadiya was the first person voted out she had only herself to rely on. It gave her the courage to make big moves. And with an idol in her pocket (see Natalie walking by angled poles like Jaclyn shot) she's not done yet.

Natalie: When Nadiya got out it lit a fire under me that I was like, I'm going to get it (Natalie throwing in tethered challenge) and I'm going to get it for Nadiya and myself. Just to prove to everybody else that I'm the best one out there.


Jeff: Jaclyn. She and her boyfriend dominated the game but after Jon's blindside, she's left alone to fend for herself.

Jaclyn: Jon and I were in the game together. We played a good team. We carried each other, essentially but I'm in this game for myself now and I'm not going down without a fight.


Jeff: Keith

Keith: I bet you're surprised to see me again ain't you?

Jeff: This 53 year old fireman came into the game as an underdog but after 35 days he's outlasted his son, won multiple Immunity Challenges, and is determined to beat the odds. (see Keith spit!)

Keith: I think I got this baby. Confidence. PMA Positive Mental Attitude


Jeff: It all concludes tonight. Who will win the Million Dollar Prize (see Keith, Baylor, Missy, Natalie, Jaclyn) and the title of Sole Survivor.

"RE: S29 | Finale Episode | Sneak Peak"
Posted by Georganna on 12-17-14 at 00:57 AM
LAST EDITED ON 12-17-14 AT 01:50 AM (EST)








Thank you, Sheldor, for the transcript. I was struck by three things: that the narrative gave only Keith and Natalie credit for their gameplay - and - that it officially labeled Keith as the Season's 'underdog'
- and - that Missy and Baylor were treated as one entity (with the implication that their Survivor fates were inseparable).

But, as well as I could tell, other than the new shot of Natalie that appears to have been taken at the F4 IIC, there is really no new content in the Sneak Peek. The images of Keith's IN investment are from the first IIC.

So, because these mini-portraits always fascinate me, I did only these. And my impressions of them began with the thought that if I were Missy, I would throttle the producers who painted such an unflattering (and uninspiring) picture of me.

Too, I think that it's interesting that Jaclyn's cameo is a repetition of one used earlier. And isn't really an attractive rendering of that lady either.

I'm not sure just exactly what Natalie's image is meant to convey. But the last frame is memorable ...

And if I were seeing Keith and Baylor for the first time ... I would like them both.

Thoughts?

G


"RE: S29 | Finale Episode | Sneak Peak"
Posted by kingfish on 12-17-14 at 10:15 AM
Thanks G.

Jac's pictures struck me as showing her with some degree of cunning and determination. She could be seen in them as working on a strategy. Possibly the editors are trying to show her in a positive light reflecting qualities that haven’t been highlighted for her up to this point in the game. A subtle attempt at rehabilitation? Trying to show that she has a chance after all?

In fact, it seems like the editors are trying with these pictures to show all of the survivors in a positive way. Even Keith (Spit). Even Missy is shown with a pensive and possibly maternal (protective) visage.

For an editor in a show that may be trying to prolong the suspense to the very end, not fingering the hero, the bad guy and the sacrificial minions isn't a bad strategy. It would be somewhat unusual editing for Survivor, but welcome (IMO) nonetheless.

"Ah ... "
Posted by Georganna on 12-17-14 at 03:42 PM
There you go. All intuitive on me.

And, of course, everything that you've said is impressively thoughtful. And very probably right. I am able to see the pictures differently now.

For instance: I was struck by the fact that the images of Missy looking down and to her left (Protectively, perhaps.) faded into those of Natalie looking up and to her right as though into the older woman's face.

And I agree. Jaclyn does look determined. And all grown up.

I agree, too, that given your interpretation, the edit of the portraits is welcome. Because, although I am always a bit embarrassed to be among the last to know how a Season is going to end, I also always enjoy my ignorance to its last drop.

And I'm looking forward to finding out if these images had any relevance to the evening's outcome ... at all.

G