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Original Message
"S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by tribephyl on 12-06-14 at 02:47 PM
Now that we're even closer to the finale episode it becomes important to start figuring out exactly what the jury is thinking before they make their final votes.

Luckily, and it's a fun one, xfinity has held a one-word test near the end of each of their exit interviews.
Granted, one word doesn't spell out the exact outcome or the exact nature of the relationship between each of the possible final3 members and the current jurors, but it may help.

So I condensed each of the responses from each of the current jurors for each of the remaining castaways.
Let's see if we can't further parse their language and figure out whom might actually win this season.

Starting with Josh and working our way down, here is what each of the jurors stated about those still left in the game...

Josh
Baylor: Young.
Jaclyn: Pageant girl.
Jon: Energy
Keith: Good ol’ boy.
Missy: Yikes. (Laughs)
Natalie: Crazy.

Jeremy
Baylor: Spoiled.
Jaclyn: Sweet.
Jon: Jon’s a cartoon character.
Keith: Good ol’ boy.
Missy: Missy doesn’t make good decisions with men.
Natalie: My sister.

Wes
Baylor: Annoying.
Jaclyn: Lazy.
Jon: Liar.
Keith: One liners.
Missy: Useless.
Natalie: Good player.

Reed
Baylor: No comment.
Jaclyn: Pageant.
Jon: Wine.
Keith: Spit.
Missy: She-wolf.
Natalie: Hysterical.

Alec
Baylor: Young.
Jaclyn: Miss Michigan.
Jon: A little bit naïve.
Keith: Man, country boy.
Missy: Conniving.
Natalie: Natalie was a bad ass.


3 of the remaining castaways still have yet to reach the jury, and we won't get these one-word associations from at the least 1 of them. But I'm guessing that even though these reponses are made well over 3 months after filming, there are clues as to whom they met with at the Ponderosa, whom they might still hold grudges against and ultimately whom they will end up voting for at final tribal council.
Also under consideration is how pairs might adjust their thoughts after meeting up at Ponderosa. Reed/Josh for instance.
Josh is apparently scared of Missy and describes Baylor as young. Whereas Reed has no comment about Baylor and see's Missy as a she-wolf. I can't say they are diametrically opposed in views but I have a feeling that Reed may be able to pull Josh over to his way of thinking if Baylor and Missy are both in the finals. Missy. Yet they both give Jaclyn a rote response of Pagaent or pagaent girl. Neither sounds confirmative of Jaclyn making it to F3.
In all honesty, I can't help but notice that of all the people remaining, Keith seems to be the only one with fairly innocuous word-associations from all of the current jurors. Countryboy, good ol boy, one-liners and spit. Does this moreso mean that they all got to know him at Ponderosa or does this point to all of them having no real objections to him being in Final 3?
Whereas Baylor's word-associations tend towards the negative end of things, and to me, pin-pointing the probability that Baylor is in the final 3 and never got to know people at Ponderosa or perhaps show an alternate side of herself that might help people be more understanding of who she is IRL.

Thoughts?

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by chemig902 on 12-06-14 at 03:17 PM
These are post game quotes, right? So Jeremy is still tight with Nat after the game, but has anyone at Ponderosa straightened him out yet that is was Missy not Nat who betrayed him? In the Ponderosa videos I've seen, he still seems to think it was Nat who voted against him.
"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by tribephyl on 12-06-14 at 07:13 PM
In that scenario, I would tend to believe that Natalie is NOT in the F3. She'd need time at Ponderosa to explain that she was just as surprised as he was and that his torch snuffing can be blamed on J/J and B/M.
"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by chemig902 on 12-06-14 at 08:50 PM
Agreed.
"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by Georganna on 12-06-14 at 10:17 PM
In Wes's Ponderosa segment, he (initially) and Josh explain to Jeremy that Natalie didn't know about the plan to boot him.

Jeremy, unconvinced, then asks why Natalie told him that she 'was sorry' and the two continue to attempt to explain that Natalie only meant that she was sorry that it happened ... at all.

But the clip's edit abruptly changes focus. So you can't be sure if Jeremy believed them or not.


G

"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by Murphy3126 on 12-06-14 at 07:26 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-06-14 AT 07:27 PM (EST)

So we have:

Baylor: Young spoiled annoying brat.
Jaclyn: Sweet lazy Pageant girl.
Jon: Naïve energetic lying goofball that talks a lot about his interest in wine
Keith: Spitting good country ol’ boy with lots of one liners.
Missy: Useless conniving she-wolf that makes bad decisions about/with men.
Natalie: Hysterical crazy bad-a$$ good player.

I think those 6 would have similar characterizations about the other 5 (although they would not admit it about their loved one). Baylor & Jaclyn the obvious goats. Any of the other 4 could win with a good pairing in finals.

I'd assume Jeremy's misconception would be clarified at final TC if Nat is in it. I think Josh, Reed, Jeremy & Keith would vote gameplay. The others vote more based on their heart, including bitter jurors. I realize the list is in alphabetical order, but I think if all 11 voted the final 6 rounds in order, right now, the alphabetic list would be very close to the order they would be booted from such a vote. Lots of game left to play though.

"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by chemig902 on 12-06-14 at 09:02 PM
I do think that Josh, Reed and Jeremy respect game play, but we've been given such misleading information about actual social dynamics this year that it is hard to get a sure read. Post game interviews show that Alec was more likable than his early edit, Reed caused more chaos than we saw on screen, and that, apparently, Jon talked A LOT about wine (boring Nat and possibly others). Because of that, I still can't see Reed or Josh voting for Missy if there is another finalist who played a strategic game. That last exchange between Reed, Baylor and Missy showed a lot of emotion under the surface. That blow up built over a while. I'm not really sure about Keith. He's still figuring our how to play the game. Even when he is a minority alliance, Keith has ended up voting with the majority alliance much of the time. (That leads me to suspect he may not stand strong with Nat when she tries to blindside Jon.) And the only way I could see him casting a vote for either Missy or Baylor is if they were the only choices in an F2.
"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by Murphy3126 on 12-06-14 at 09:24 PM
> "I can't see Reed or Josh voting for Missy if there is another finalist who played a strategic game."

That is the key ... I really haven't seen much strategy from any except Natalie. I don't think Baylor gets any votes unless F2 with Jacyln.

"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by Brownroach on 12-09-14 at 11:34 AM
In all honesty, I can't help but notice that of all the people remaining, Keith seems to be the only one with fairly innocuous word-associations from all of the current jurors. Countryboy, good ol boy, one-liners and spit. Does this moreso mean that they all got to know him at Ponderosa or does this point to all of them having no real objections to him being in Final 3?

I'm seriously considering a Keith win. Barring Natalie being in F3, I think Keith has an excellent shot at beating any F3 combination. Yes, he kind of stumbled his way to the end, but he did win some challenges, enough to make Jon consider him a threat. A Jon/Keith/Baylor F3 is kind of making sense to me. (Natalie/Keith/Baylor also seems possible, but now I'm more suspecting that Natalie leaves at F4.)

"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by chemig902 on 12-12-14 at 11:13 AM
>I'm seriously considering a Keith win.
> Barring Natalie being in
>F3, I think Keith has
>an excellent shot at beating
>any F3 combination. Yes,
>he kind of stumbled his
>way to the end, but
>he did win some challenges,
>enough to make Jon consider
>him a threat.
>A Jon/Keith/Baylor F3 is kind
>of making sense to me.
> (Natalie/Keith/Baylor also seems
>possible, but now I'm more
>suspecting that Natalie leaves at
>F4.)

I've started thinking along the same lines, but what about a Keith/Baylor/Jaclyn F3? Keith who Probst keeps saying has been "learning the game as he goes along" could finally make a move. Orchestrating a Natalie bounce could simultaneously give him a "big move" and bring about his regret over "doing the worst thing ever in Survivor history."

If there is an idol placed on EI (thinking about the Baylor in transit vud caps), F5 vote could come down to only two eligible for boot. It deems like Jac would be the obvious boot if Keith were to win II, but maybe SHE makes a move to take out Missy.

"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by Brownroach on 12-16-14 at 12:18 PM
What about a Keith/Baylor/Jaclyn F3?

Well that's what seems to be shaping up now, though I think Missy is simply going to ask to leave next, rather than anyone else plotting her boot.

If Keith wins F4 immunity challenge, he will have a really good case to make in front of the jury. He will have won three individual immunities, but also will have received votes at five TCs (four of them post-merge) along the way and survived. Plus he found an HII early on, and used it when he needed to. He may not have been as sharp strategically as Natalie, but will have gotten her out when the time came. I think he could easily be the winner of S29.

"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by chemig902 on 12-16-14 at 01:09 PM
>Well that's what seems to be
>shaping up now, though I
>think Missy is simply going
>to ask to leave next,
>rather than anyone else plotting
>her boot.

Initially I thought that Missy would hang in there clawing and fighting until the end. But even a few days with out even ice to treat her ankle and 24/7 compression, could lead to the Missy we see in the previews. I also see her bowing out now. With Baylor looking good for F3, Missy could back out to receive medical treatment and avoid any vote splitting with Baylor that might cost them both the win.

>He may
>not have been as sharp
>strategically as Natalie, but will
>have gotten her out when
>the time came. I
>think he could easily be
>the winner of S29.

AGREED!

"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by Brownroach on 12-16-14 at 04:37 PM
With Baylor looking good for F3, Missy could back out to receive medical treatment and avoid any vote splitting with Baylor that might cost them both the win.

Also, Missy may realize that, since it was she and Jon that had the close alliance, Jon could demonize Missy to the jury at the final TC for turning on him. He wouldn't have the same ammunition against Baylor, so it's better if Baylor is in the F3.

"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by kingfish on 12-09-14 at 12:07 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-09-14 AT 03:14 PM (EST)


What all this I hear about Passing The Jurors?

Are they old people, or something? Have they been injured? Don't they deserve to go as slow as they want? Maybe they’re just strolling. Maybe they just want to think over their jury thoughts while strolling? Maybe they’re walking a dog or a cat. You hate dogs and cats too?

You ought to be ashamed of yourself for passing all those old people and their pets, they could be you some day, and how would you like it if everyone passed you? Huh? Ever thought of that?

Put that in your Metamucil and smoke it.


"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by tribephyl on 12-09-14 at 12:34 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-09-14 AT 12:43 PM (EST)

sorry for the typo, it was meant to read Passing the Jujubes.

Here...

...take some and pass 'em along!

"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by kingfish on 12-09-14 at 12:58 PM
Oh. Well. Ok. Nevermind then.
"Kingfish Litella"
Posted by suzzee on 12-09-14 at 02:31 PM


I should be watched....closely.

"Jon"
Posted by tribephyl on 12-11-14 at 07:33 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-11-14 AT 07:51 PM (EST)

via xfinity's one-word test, here's Jon's responses regarding those still in it.

Jon
Baylor: College.
Jaclyn: (Laughs) Love of my life.
Keith: Absent minded.
Missy: That’s a hard one… genuine.
Natalie: Sneaky.

and another one from GoldDerby.com
Baylor: "College girl. She follows her mom's lead."
Jaclyn: "Love of my life ... I'm pulling for her."
Keith: "Blind luck."
Missy: "Now that I see how hard was for her, it changes things a little bit. I think I would still say 'trustworthy'."
Natalie: "Strategery."

"RE: Jon"
Posted by Georganna on 12-11-14 at 07:55 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-11-14 AT 08:13 PM (EST)


Missy: That’s a hard one… genuine.

That's odd.

Because in his Ponderosa clip he seems to be very upset by what he terms her 'use' of his belief by encouraging him to join her in 'playing the Game with faith and letting God (Who had already determined its outcome - per Missy) handle it'.

In fact, the clip contains the earlier-recorded (in-Game) conversation between the two of them. And it struck me that I don't think I've ever seen the producers do that before in Ponderosa exit cameos. And made me wonder why the broader audience never saw it.

ETA:

Keith: "Blind luck."

I spent over thirty years surrounded each working day by very good salespeople. And the very best at his craft that I met during those years often said that he would rather be lucky than good. And, to the tune of millions, he is ... ;)

G

"RE: Jon"
Posted by chemig902 on 12-12-14 at 11:19 AM
Georganna, I had the same thoughts when watching that Ponderosa clip. It was interesting to see the emphasis on Faith and faith in Jon's relatuonship with Missy. Unrelated, I was also why there was so much emphasis in Reed and Josh's clips on them being Christians and Christian role models.
"RE: Jon"
Posted by Georganna on 12-15-14 at 07:27 AM
Chemig,

As I said, I just can't recall ever seeing the introduction of in-game content into a Ponderosa piece before now. It was as though the producers were intent upon verifying and validating Jon's version (and view) of that aspect of his relationship with Missy. And, to me, they did an excellent job of it. I don't think that the interchange was very flattering to the Texan.

However, I admit that that is a matter of my opinion:

I'm a life-long congregant of what is often referred to as a 'Mainline' (Protestant) Christian Church. So, I'm certainly not offended by spontaneous expressions of religious faith (no matter their doctrinal pedigree) during a television show. It is my understanding that Survivor’s contestants have a great deal of time on their hands and it doesn’t surprise me that its prolonged conversations drift to the very personal.

However, just as I do whenever a Survivor swears to truth or lie on the life, health or happiness of a family member, I cringe all the way to my toes when profound beliefs are pretended or sincerely-held faiths are manipulated to bolster a gaming strategy. I can never believe that I heard what I heard. Because ultimately the quintessentially-cheap shot is always unnecessarily hurtful or offensive. To someone. Or to lots of someones.

As for Reed and Josh:

In my attempts to verify this Season’s birthdates, I spent no little time visiting Josh’s public Twitter account. And I learned a bit about him and his family in the process:

He is very active in his NYC church - at times, serving as its choir director during one of the several Sunday services. And his large family, it seems, is a Christian ministry unto itself. But, although there is really no indication of tension on their Twitter sites, Josh has said that he and Reed have experienced disapproval and misunderstanding of their relationship from some of their fellow parishioners and from members of Josh’s family.

So … to quote JP ... (B)oth Josh and Reed are Survivor super-fans … I was really impressed and proud that they wanted to come on our show, endure this adventure, and be honest about who they are in the hopes that it'll help wake people up.

And in that and John Rocker’s placement on the San Juan del Sur roster, I’m afraid that we’ve heard an announcement that the world according to Probst is in dire need of yet another 'Issues' platform.


Sigh …

G

"RE: Jon"
Posted by dabo on 12-12-14 at 11:39 AM
"Strategery."? Seems he has some hard feelings for the Twinnie.

Saw they have some sort of award vote going on there, predict the winner, interesting stats.

Natalie Anderson
4/11

Keith Nale
7/1

Baylor Wilson
11/1

Jaclyn Schultz
50/1

Missy Payne
50/1

"RE: Jon"
Posted by Flowerpower1 on 12-12-14 at 11:43 AM
LAST EDITED ON 12-12-14 AT 11:53 AM (EST)

is that a typo for Natalie's odds? 4/11, shouldn't that read 4/1?

And, you type that "they" have a contest going? Who are they and how did they get these odds....all just their personal choices?

"RE: Jon"
Posted by dabo on 12-12-14 at 12:01 PM
"They" are goldderby.com, their registered users are in the contest to win a hundred amazon bucks. From what I gather the scores on the predict the winner question will be added to previous scores to decide who gets the award of a whole hundred amazon bucks.

Yeah, I think the 11 is some sort of glitch, but at least it's a funny one.

"RE: Jon"
Posted by Tungusta on 12-12-14 at 03:36 PM
LAST EDITED ON 12-12-14 AT 03:39 PM (EST)

You could have 4 to 11 odds which is 36.36 cents to the dollar making Natalie a heavy favorite to win.

"RE: Jon"
Posted by Outsider32 on 12-16-14 at 02:56 AM
Goldderby does Survivor now?
"RE: S29 | Parsing the Jurors"
Posted by dabo on 12-12-14 at 01:32 PM
Josh CHH
1. Keith
2. Natalie
3. Jaclyn
4. Missy
5. Baylor

Jeremy HHH
1. Natalie
2. Missy
3. Keith
4. Jaclyn
5. Baylor

Wes CHH
1. Keith
2. Missy
3. Natalie
4. Baylor
5. Jaclyn

Reed HHH
1. Natalie
2. Keith
3. Jaclyn
4. Missy
5. Baylor

Alec CHH
1. Baylor
2. Keith
3. Natalie
4. Jaclyn
5. Missy

Jon HCH
1. Jaclyn
2. Missy
3. Baylor
4. Keith
5. Natalie

Keith 13
Natalie 15
Missy 18
Jaclyn 20
Baylor 23