Editing/Storytelling AnalysisMark Burnett has said that Survivor is about storytelling. This makes sense since the final editing of each episode is done after the outcome is known. While most of us were surprised by what took place in the first Survivor, in terms of following a story line, the outcome shouldn't have been surprising.
The Tagi tribe was portrayed as a bunch of mean, conniving people who were willing to do anything to win. While the Pagong tribe was shown as a bunch of young, fun-loving people. Members of Pagong were shown having a mud bath and dancing around the beach. With Tagi, the mean side of Rich and Sue were being shown from the start. Once they merged, the no-nonsense Tagi tribe picked off the confused, and utterly naive Pagong members one by one.
With Survivor 2, the Kucha and Ogakor tribes also seem to be following a story line. Kucha has been more resourceful, have more team chemistry, more organized, and more more likeable while acting almost like a family. Ogakor from the start has been a divided group, mostly because of Jerri. With what we've seen so far, everything points to Kucha dominating the merger.
Kucha is clearly the crowd favorite right now. They are easy to root for and people will feel sorry for them because of the accident. I'm sure there were times when they have been disorganized and lazy as a group but Mark Burnett has decided not to show those scenes. If Kucha was going to end up being voted off one by one in the merger, then why not end last week's show with them looking shaken, lost, confused, and feeling sorry for themselves. Instead they showed Jeff giving a "win one for Mike" speech. The final scene of the episode was the Kucha tribe holding hands and praying. Why portray them as a close-knit, resilient group if they are going to get killed in the merger? On the other hand, we haven't been given any indications that Ogakor is capable of outwitting Kucha.
This is only my opinion and I could be prover wrong as early as the next episode. In terms of storytelling though, everything is pointing towards a Kucha domination.
Prediction based on storytelling: Kucha 5 will be Final 5
The only problem that I see with that is that MB also likes to throw us for a loop now and then. Ogakore is the more devious group and I can see MB giving us that "Win one for the gipper" speech only to have Kucha explode (too some extent).You said yourself that Kucha is the crowd favorite (for the most part). Pagong seemed to be the favorite of the masses last time.
Part of the buzz that happened last time was that the bad guy won. It's not as exciting pulling for the good guy. The water cooler talk keeps going as long as Jeri is in the game. She's a catalyst. She might not win, but she creates buzz in a way that no one else on the show does.
What would be more surprising right now.... a kucha sweep, an ogakore sweep, or a mixture making the final 4 or 5. Everything points to Kucha which is why I think it won't happen.
I'm not sure who is going this week (leaning towards Jeff), but I wouldn't be surprised if its a former kucha member (wouldn't be surprised if its Nick).
Eric