*crosses fingers for the RobC/Eliza theory.

Well, congrats to those who called it with the Jefra boot. But, frankly I was SHOCKED that Tony would be that dumb. Spencer is surely the threat while Jefra is a pawn who is not threatening at all. Clearly shows his paranoia in the game. But, I suppose with 2 idols, one of which is the TPI, he is running rampant and most likely thinks he's unbeatable. Arrogance and invincibility....still hope for Spencer.

He is playing illogically now to me. Is this his fatal flaw in the game, or does he have too much in his arsenal to lose?

LAST EDITED ON 05-01-14 AT 12:09 PM (EST)

I didn't think voting out Jeffra was dumb, Tony knew Jeffra wanted Tony out & Tony doesn't trust Kass. Not telling Trish was the bad move. She has been with him from the start. He could have lied if Trish wouldn't go along & then later said he changed his mind & didn't have time to tell both her & Woo.

I thought Kass not going with a women's alliance was dumb. Trish, Kass & Jeffra would have controlled the game. Take out Woo or Spencer, then split votes next week, voting out Spencer/Woo while forcing Tony to play the known idol, then non IC winner of Tasha or Tony. Kass has to know she can't beat Tasha, and might not beat Tony or Spencer, but Kass likely thinks she can out-talk & argue Trish, Jeffra & Woo at final TC. Kass needed 4 at F7 or F6, & Tony took away one of her 4.

I didn't have a problem with the Jefra boot - she's got too many Beauty friends on the jury (Tony in particular has people on the jury he's rubbed the wrong way) and she's a lone wolf in terms of original tribe mates. She wasn't wishy washy like Christy in a similar position between original alliances but she did express her disappointment with not being in the loop with the Jeremiah boot, so she could easily have become a wild card.

I don't think the Jefra boot was "dumb" either, but when Spencer was available as a choice, it didn't make sense to me.

Jefra made another commitment to the alliance of 5 last week. He could have had Trish flesh out any insecurities in her. But, he constantly discounts Trish and keeps her out of the loop, while Woo is seemingly in the loop. We know that Trish and Tony must talk. The girls will be so much easier to beat when it comes to final challenges, imho, at least most of them (except Tasha!).

Yes, the girls could have gone with the "all girl" alliance and taken control. I agree that was a valid option they ignored. They clearly don't trust each other enough to do it. Jefra/Kass/Trish don't trust Tasha enough, nor does Tasha trust them enough. They all know that Tasha's closest ally in the game is Spencer, therefore it's understandable why it wasn't taken seriously.

Tony is bent on getting people out that in his view are not playing the game. He called Jefra a goat to her face last night. Clearly, Jefra did not read the writing on the wall, which should have been enough for Tony to prioritize Spencer over Jefra as well.

Just isn't logical thinking to me. I agree with CTGirl, Tony's mania is running circles around everyone else, but will it be his demise in the game as well?

It seemed logical to me. Tony was worried about what would happen after Spencer was gone. That was the 4-2 scene from the previews. Tasha would have no allies, Jefra was already more or less alone -- it was legitimate, imo, to be concerned that a women's alliance would coalesce at that point.

With Jefra gone, theoretically Tony would be able to rally back Trish and Kass and along with Woo the four of them could vote out Spencer or Tasha next. It probably won't happen that way though.

Tony's idols expire before the final. He has a huge target on his back. I'm looking forward to seeing how he navigates the vote when he is not protected. I've thought for the past two weeks that he is too manic (and I do think that will be his fatal flaw).

His big decision (oh no, Tony has to think about something!) is whether to give the regular idol to someone else to play, and who. How will he screw up that move?

Fortunately, the HII+ is non-transferable, meaning he might as well hold onto it until after the votes have been read and play it for himself only if absolutely necessary.

Do we know if the idols are good until Final 4? (Occasionally they've expired at F5.) If they can be used at F4, Tony has to play them at two of the next 3 TCs. He may need to play the regular HII for himself next week.

Tony is guaranteed a path to F4. He's too paranoid & untrusting to give the HII away unless he wins immunity. Tony can take his chances next week with the HII+ & do giveaway the following week. We may see a 3 way tie next week to force Tony to play an idol.

Can't wait to see who goes next & whether both Trish & Woo go along with Kass, or just one or none. I think things are shaping up for a boot of the non-IC winner of Spencer/Tasha or maybe a Woo blindside. Woo is an IC threat. Woo seems unlikely to like or go with Kass, but might go along with a move to force Tony to play his idol. They could even forewarn Tony, since they don't know about Tony having the HII+, which eliminates his need to play the HII.

I have to start with... aside from kingfish and myself, Jefra was my 3rd in line thought of bootee this week. But truthfully, I was swayed by this...

So, it's 1 for "Spangle", 7 for tribe, 9 for kingfish and 1 for Jefra.
Obviously waaaaay outside the box.
(What? You were expecting something? Some nugget of wisdom? I ain't got it. No real revelation whatsoever. Just one of the three (gut/heart/mind) taking a chance at speaking out and one of the other, possibly both, squashed it.)

and had to follow suit. Plus, I was finally too tired of being wrong. Of course, those ems the breaks when you don't actually make your voice heard. Coulda, shoulda only if I woulda?
Which really, is a cry for more lurkers to actually chime in as well. Go ahead, make your first post. You've been following the activity for seasons go ahead and speak your mind. Soapbox away!
Anyways...

Parsing the language:
"Chaos is My Friend" was uttered by Tony. Edited in late episode. Had NOTHING to do with #ChaosKass. And REALLY has more to do with what is upcoming for him. He is about to see some chaos after once again not informing Trish of his flip-flopping.

Next time on Survivor... While everyone else's mind is on the auction, Spencer uses his brain to change the game.
The auction-minded folks ran from MalnuTrish to Spencer and Tony (and Tasha, who it seems was waiting for one last auction item to bid on.) IWO those who weren't worried about an advantage were worried about food and on the other end of the spectrum... the exact opposite.

Tony Teases:
* One castaway Tony’s bidding strategy at the Survivor auction could does pay off for them him.
* MeanwhileThe part we just teased leads to ... castaways Tony and Spencer draw rocks for a huge advantage in the game.
* and another castaway hidden idol is decides to shown off by Tony his idol in an attempt to ensure his safety. Done via a bidding strategy that led to a drawing of rocks AND led to a well placed GIANT WHITE TREE with ANOTHER hidden idol within scratching distance of the surface dirt...then going to each member of his "alliance" with his NEW hidden idol that he just found around his neck.

JP hype:
OH MY — one of the greatest moments in an auction — ever. And it’s another Survivor first!!
I poop on almost everything above. The "survivor first" being a survivor producer first attempt at adding a new twist to an auction bidding strategy. Sadly, even the survivors are beyond aware.
Next time, producers, try mixing up the order of auction items.
So far, they all start with a middling to low prize with a mid-range bid winning. It inevitably ends with the "advantage". Mix it up a bit. Try giving away the prize a bit earlier and watch the amount of "Tasha"s rise. Waiting for something even BETTER to come along.

I have PLENTY of ideas for producers if they are interested.

Dissecting the caps:

Tony's 4 Vs 3 and 4 Vs 2 finger counting was pre and post counting of the men IF the women actually get together.

The girl's talking in the water was not only doomed because it was shown but ended up being the catalyst for the events to follow.

Spencer DOES thrown Jefra under the bus.
Spencer is throwing one of the women under the bus. It could be Kass, it could be Tasha, but my money is on it being Jefra. Jefra had considered siding with the brains before the last TC but went back to the brawns claiming she didn't think it would be good for her game to switch at this time. Tony is already aware that Jefra would vote for him. Is he sure she won't actually do so this week?

And with Spencer doing the dirty work this week, the last beauty is sent to the jury.

Revealing the path forward:

* SeeBS absolute. You can't rely on "could", "meanwhile" or "another castaway" as meaning a spit of anything EVER again.

* JP is full of the biggest amount of "caca" when it comes to "firsts". (See: Lindsey quits because of potential "loss of control". Both Spencer and Tony fall for a really sketchy tie-break rule regarding the annual "last item", the "advantage". (Game OR Challenge advantage TBD)

* Spangles away! Speak your mind, regardless of how truly stoopid you think it might be. At this moment I have been wrong almost all season and still feel like king of the Losers.

LAST EDITED ON 05-02-14 AT 10:37 AM (EST)

I'm sold on michel's line of reasoning. The editors certainly seem to want us to root for Spencer, first, and Tasha, second. Tony is made to seem like a fun, manic player who will screw himself over.
Trish is the sneaky assassin, but one who follows orders blindly. Woo is just woooo! Kass is the bitchy, self-absorbed lawyer who thinks she is better/smarter than everyone she's ever met and wonders why she has no close friends. Does she cry herself to sleep at night or has her heart become too hardened? She seems like the type who could be a psychopath with people chained up in her basement. Okay, maybe I'm going a little too far with the Kass hate.

Ep11 Evidence
Title:
Havoc to Wreak
Next time on Survivor... Next time on Survivor everyone is tired of Tony's antics even his closest ally.

Teases:
* During an intense challenge, castaways attempt to crack the code and earn a spot in the final five.
* Additionally, one castaway’s paranoia threatens another’s stake in the game
* and Tony’s closest confidant is wooed by another alliance

JP hype:
With only a few people living at one camp, there’s nowhere to hide and it’s so easy to be overheard.

So from these alone; Woo, Tony's closest ally and confidant is tired of his antics and is "wooed" by Spencer and Tasha.

And of note, going into this episode, Kass herself has stated that she has wreaked havoc before and she will wreak havoc in her future. Now, is her future...

But first...
RC:
Run with two teams of 3;

Purple: Tony, Trish and Tasha
Orange: Spencer, Kass, Woo

The challenge objective being to use the sand bags to topple your opponents wall of painted blocks. The winning trio, I'm thinking, receive an off-camp reward and probably leave directly from the challenge site to enjoy it.

Meanwhile, the losers (Kass, Woo and Spencer) are sent back to camp to commiserate, plot and plan.

This gives them the opportunity to "woo" Woo and get him to notice how dangerous and untrustworthy (and potentially game crashing) Tony is.
Apparently, he's in agreement...

Woo: At this point in the game, if I've got to make a big move, I'll definitely do it.

Onto the Individual IC:
To lead us off we have...During an intense challenge, castaways attempt to crack the code and earn a spot in the final five.
Castaways will start at their Code-Boxes and upon go will sprint towards a series of Items;



Making sure to accurately count each of the items and then sprint back to transpose those numbers into the Code-Box. (Of note, each of the code boxes are arranged differently. With the items listed on the side in a different order from each other player).
Some will do one item at a time, others may try to get multiple items committed to memory before running back.
Regardless, this challenge seems to highlight the abilities of a couple of Survivors.

Studying the comparisons between Spencer's CodeBox Pre-Challenge and the cap of him at the Code-Box reveals he has changed 3 item numbers at this point in the challenge. Fish Traps, Rocks and Masks.

And here's Tasha... the accountant...

some statistical stuff...
Originating Code-Box Numbers... (and used as NOT the actual code numbers but are 2 spaces away from the REAL number code.)
Bouys: 17 | Rocks: 26 | Crabs: 22 | Masks: 23 | Fish Traps:13 | Bamboo: 33

Tasha/Spencer Code-Box Comparison. *changed by survivor
Spencer's Code-Box: Fish Traps: *15 | Rocks: *24 | Crabs: 22 | Masks: *24 | Bamboo: 33 | Bouys: 17
Tasha's Code-Box: Bouys: 17 | Fish Traps: 13 | Rocks: *23 | Crabs: 22 | Masks: 23 | Bamboo: 33
From the caps above; Tasha has changed 1 of her code-counts, while Spencer has changed 3.
Regardless I have confidence that Tasha could indeed win again.

TC Strategies:

The biggest thing we know of is the fight between Kass and Tony, where Tony 'reveals' his idol and dares Kass to go ahead and vote for him.
We also saw Spencer and Kass wooing Woo (sorry I can't get enough of it.) and heard Woo say "I'm in" supposedly in regards to an attempt at voting out Tony.

Intoto:
Where does Trish stand? How about Tasha?

And where oh where is Tony getting his information from?
With only a few people living at one camp, there’s nowhere to hide and it’s so easy to be overheard. ~ JP

Tony 'overhears' something. It certainly isn't the OPEN arguement between Tony and Kass. However, it could be that he overhears Woo discussing his need to make a "big move". This usually send waves of panic in Tony (and Kass) and could result in Tony making a counter move against his own "closest ally".

Irregardless of whomever ends up voting for Tony, his idols will protect him.

Survivors In Danger for Ep11:
For this week, my thoughts going into bootee predictions are tainted a bit by the title for next week... "Straw That Broke The Camel's Back".
That particular straw is whats known as the LAST straw and is usually reserved for the person who has been duped for a second or third time. The only dupees have been Kass and Tony. Both have strayed from their alliances and backstabbed someone in their own alliance. While as a result of the backstabbing Kass absorbed herself into a new alliance, after Tony has done some backstabbing he continues to go back to the same alliance. Therefore, my thought is that THIS episode must result in someone from the Majority alliance getting booted. And as a result of either Tony or Kass switching things up.

Kass ~ Spencer ~ Tasha ~ Woo

Kass: I'd remove her but I don't want to be surprised. Instead I will cross off her name. She has some Havoc to Wreak and I, for one, look forward to the outcome.

Spencer: This kid has lots of lives. He's not really been the target in many TCs and when he was, a bigger target suddenly appeared. No reason to believe it won't happen again. His editing is painting a VERY resonant "winner" angle on him, but his own activity POST-game leads to a bitter-er end.

Tasha: No reason to believe that she won't win another Immunity Necklace. Specially when the IC itself is a study in her own chosen field of expertise. ALTHOUGH, I wouldn't be surprised if everything about the mis-direction of wooing Woo, KaosKass and Tony's Idols, leads us back to an opportunity to dump the current challenge whore. Tasha without Immunity is doomed.

Woo: Telling the camera that your vote is the most important or that your next move is critical is "usually" a sign that you've grown to big for your britches. However, as the current editing is showing, it's those that aren't playing the game that are getting targeted. Take too long and your opening might be removed completely. So IF he stands up to Tony, Woo will survive, but if he waffles, he's a goner.

My Vote:

RC: Team T ~ Tasha, Tony and Trish

IC: Tasha (alt. Spencer)

Bootee: Woo

Next week... Trish's Camelback is broken by a last straw.

Everyone's saying Woo. If Kass gets her way, I could see Trish. It is all up to if Spencer and Tasha want to allow her back in again.

Per Jeffra interview, Kass & Trish had a F3 alliance. Plus, until Spencer/Tasha have superior #'s, they'll take whomever they can get that keeps them in the game another round. Up til now, its been Tony, but they'll align with Kass, or at least vote with her for a TC, if it keeps them in the game.

That F3 alliance has not been revealed on the show. Was it her, Trish, and Woo? And the whole Twitter stuff......well I'm just wondering how that came about. Do people really hate Kass that much because of her personality?

May have been with LJ as the 3rd. Jeffra rattled off several alliances, I think Woo was in one.

Videos are on CBS.com where you can watch the Ponderosa video of Jury as each member voted off & "Survivor Live Replay" section with a 25 min. or so interview between Parvarti & latest contestant voted off:

http://www.cbs.com/shows/survivor/video/

I watch partially because Parvarti is cute & occasionally has some wicked insight into the show!

I don't Twitter, but it seems like I've read on the Board, this or Sucks, that Twitter feud started several episodes in, perhaps something Kass said in Tweets, rather than from show.

Idk, Tony was telling Kass to find "someone else to play with" before the season started. Trish had beef with Kass after first episode about J'Tia and said the game is over and be real. Kass was being bashed between then and the J'Tia vote by Tony. Trish has retweeted and agreed with everything Tony has said about Kass. Now Tony is attacking Kass after a while suddenly which is ironic given the upcoming episode.

Saw this on Sucks:

I can feel the energy coming.. Heading to the Survivor party soon.. Yahoooo.
— Trish Hegarty (@TrishHegarty) May 7, 2014

Sounds like it's down to Spencer or Woo. (Not going to L.A. today)

We're watching some other show's Next Times and promo's. All bets are off. Lead astray. Bamboozled. No rhyme or reason involved. Misdirection of misdirection. It's all rather fun.

I should be watched....closely.