He did say he changed his mind about Spencer after a couple of Eps.

I just don't know. Not listening to any of the hype, I would say this episode has the potential to be an easy pick.

Sarah is going to stay true to Tony.

Here they are voicing their concerns...

This is the blueblood alliance and it's more to them than the "usual" bond. They are in it together to the death, at least Sarah is.

Sarah will vote with Tony. Tony seems to like his new 5. So, if Tony has his way it will be one of two people....Jeremiah or Spencer. Most likely Jeremiah first, imo.

This will not be a blindside for anyone but Jeremiah, who may believe that his core 6 in the majority will stay strong and vote together.

Now a real blindside would be Tony, and after last week I feel like his story arc will be taking a big downward turn soon.

If anyone from nuSolana got booted it wouldn't be shocking at all. It would be exactly what you'd expect, since they are positioned to get pagonged.

It has to be a nuAparri. I think Jeremiah goes. He's a typical merge boot, for one, and the editing has set him up as somewhat hapless. And we know Tony would like him out. It would be a major blindside for the Brains, who think they are going in six strong. I was wondering if Morgan would flip, but probably it will be Sarah. (If Sarah flips, Tony *should* plan on dragging her to F2, where she would be viewed as a traitor.)

It has to be a nuAparri. I think Jeremiah goes. He's a typical merge boot, for one, and the editing has set him up as somewhat hapless. And we know Tony would like him out. It would be a major blindside for the Brains, who think they are going in six strong.

My thoughts exactly. It will be Sarah that flips, imo. Tony will talk her back so fast....she's his number one. Solid, blueblood alliance is more than a bond, blah, blah. Sarah has also been shown to be naiive and gullable, imo.

Here's what I would like to see her do: She should draw him in and convince him that she is with him, then talk the brains and company to vote TONY out. Now that would be spectacular, but I don't see that happening. fwiw.

Well, now you've got me thinking about Spencer. He would be a more "shocking" boot than Jeremiah in a way, since Jeremiah was under serious consideration to get booted just this past week, and Spencer's been getting a better edit overall. The one thing that's consistent about Survivor is inconsistency. Hmm...

Anyone spot the immunity necklace in those shots of the "SHOCKER!!" tribal council? (It doesn't look like like either Kass or Sarah have it as they walk in. There's a bit of an odd blur on the back of Morgan one one of the shots but I don't think she has it either.) Then again, I'm getting old, so my eyesight probably isn't to be trusted. (Well you can trust it as much at you can Jiffy's hype....)

I suspect this will be as much a shocker as the "meltdown" at the RC in episode 3....

I think Morgan does have the necklace. That's her at the end of the line and she seems to be holding something:

I've been scrounging through caps...
and it looks indeed like Morgan has the immunity necklace.
Granted, I can't see the front of Woo, Tony, LJ or Jeremiah.
However, if it is indeed the water-raft endurance challenge, it should be won by a woman anyways.
But how Morgan does it with those ginormus assets of hers is beyond me as well. Truthfully, I would have picked the pillates instructor, Trish.

Yeah that caught my eye as well... but if that is indeed an immunity idol around Morgan's neck, would she also be bringing her bag? Something doesn't seem to fit here, unless she brought her bag to hold her pullover sweatshirt in case she got cold.

Good point, Pepe. There's been a lot of rain this season though so maybe everyone brings extra clothes.

Remember folks, this is what were looking for...

Transcript by SurvivorFever:

Announcer: This season of Survivor just gets better and better. CBS, Wednesday...
Morgan (reading treemail): Tidy up camp and make some room.
Announcer: A tribe merge...
LJ (camera confessional): It's six against five and we could be in trouble.
Announcer: A scramble for power.
Trish (talking to Kass): If you're in with us, you're in with us and we'll take care of you.
Kass (camera confessional): Maybe I want to switch allegiance.
Tony (talking to Sarah): You come in with us, we'll make it happen.
Sarah (camera confessional): I will decide the fate of this game.
Announcer: And a Tribal Council that is a complete shocker.
Jeff Probst (at Tribal Council): It is going to be a wild finish.

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All the scrambling is being done by NuSolana while Kass and Sarah seem quite receptive. That tells me the shocker will come from NuSolana when they realize their plan didn't work. And I noticed that LJ was placed right in the middle of ecerything for no reason at all...Then again, the image of Sarah hiting the ground when the hammock broke is quite suggestive.

I am not betting against Morgan, at least for a while. She is like Kentucky in March Madness - I don't mind her staying, but she busted my bracket! (and there is no innuendo there.)

The flashbacks focus on Trish in the water, Sarah on the ground, and the losers and winners in the big log challenge. Sarah wouldn't really be a big surprise since people who think they are the swing votes have gone home. Kass always seems to give soundbites about switching but then stays the course.

Hmmm ... Trish would be sort of a shocker ... at least to her and her current tribe mates.

I need to perseverate on this for a while ...

'Survivor: Cagayan': Exclusive merge photos and Tony interview!
By Dalton Ross on Apr 2, 2014 at 12:01AM
http://insidetv.ew.com/2014/04/02/survivor-cagayan-exclusive-merge-photos-tony-vlachos/

He has been the sneakiest sneak of the Survivor season so far. Some of his moves — like putting a target on Cliff with a phantom lie to Sarah and putting a target on Jeremiah with a phantom hidden immunity idol clue — have been ingenious. Others — like yelling out “Top five, baby!” at the top of his lungs after winning a challenge — maybe not so much. And now Jersey City cop Tony Vlachos will have to come face to face with those people not part of his top five when the Survivor: Cagayan tribes merge on Wednesday night’s episode. We have two exclusive merge images (one above and one below) of the big gathering as well as an exclusive midseason Q&A with the guy Survivor fans either love…or love to hate.

ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY: Tony, you have been playing SUPER aggressive so far. As you look back on what’s happened so far, was some of it too aggressive?
TONY VLACHOS: Honestly, (can I even use that word while talking about Survivor?) I really had no idea how aggressive I was playing the game while I was out there. I felt that the speed and aggression in which I was playing the game, was just right for me. I feel that if I played the game any slower or softer than I was, I would get bored, which wouldn’t be good for business. Once you get bored, you get laxed. Once you get laxed, you drop your guards. Once you drop your guards, it’s game over!

EW: What moves are you proudest of to this point and what are your biggest regrets so far in terms of your gameplay?
TONY: The moves I’m most proud of up to this point were:
A) Looking for Hidden Immunity Idols and clues without anyone knowing.
B) Building my spyshack.
C) The timing of my lies and my truth. The first lie I told Sarah about not being a cop, I really had no choice in that lie, because prior to being confronted by Sarah, I had already told the rest of my tribemates that I was into construction. The lie I told Sarah about Cliff and Lindsey being out to get her, I felt was perfect timing. In the event that we would lose an Immunity challenge or get shuffled up, I wanted to have the plan to oust them already in motion. There would be no way that I could tell that lie after we lost a challenge, because it would look like a desperate plea from me trying to save myself, and it wouldn’t be believable.
D) The timing of me telling the truth to my new “Solana” alliance about me being a police officer and what I did to Jeremiah with the hidden clue, I believe was also great timing. I knew that we would be coming up to a merge where it would be best for me to step up and come clean rather than my alliance being told by the opposing alliances that I was a police officer (if Sarah had told them) and obviously giving Jeremiah a clue, was no secret, so I was expecting that move to be exposed. If there was a possibility of the truth being exposed from the opposing side, I wanted to make sure that I revealed the truth first in order to gain their trust.
E) Voting off Cliff. Cliff and I formed an alliance with Woo in the first FIVE MINUTES of the game. By the fourth day, I was aware enough to recognize that Cliff betrayed me and had traded me for Lindsey in the alliance. Cliff was very influential and had his own agenda that I wasn’t a part of, so it was in my best interest to vote him out. Yes, he was a number, but a number against me, so he had to go.

In terms of my gameplay thus far, I really don’t have any regrets. I believe I played the best game I knew how to up to this point.

EW: Every Survivor fan who gets on the show wants to at least get to the merge. Once you found out the merge was coming, what did you feel: Relief? Excitement? Anxiety?
TONY: Oh, man, once I found out the merge was coming, I was overwhelmed with all sorts of positive emotions. I was very excited and anxious. I was like wow, now I really get to play Survivor. At that point, my adrenaline kicked in and I couldn’t wait to go and play.

EW: I’m sure a lot of your fellow players have been surprised by what they’ve seen you doing behind their backs as they watch it all play out on TV. What has surprised you the most so far as you’ve watched everything?
TONY: I was surprised to see how much Sarah believed in me after I told her I was a cop. I was surprised that Sarah was trying to throw a challenge. I was surprised that Alexis was voted off instead of Jeremiah with all the attention I put on him. I was surprised how much fun the new Aparri team made of me regarding the “TOP FIVE” comment, which had me laughing.

EW: You’ve now watched yourself in this game. Would you trust you?
TONY: HELL NO!! (laughs)