LAST EDITED ON 09-21-13 AT 07:46 PM (EST)

And right from the start they made things overly complicated this season. Still, when I get around to posting the week one results, some interesting things emerge.

Anyway, what counts in confessionals? At the start of the show this time there were some pair confessionals. These would essentially count as one confessional for each person in the pair regardless of any back-and-forth between them. Something I never had to consider before this.

Okay, the basics of how I count them. When a player has a confessional, then another player has a confessional, then the first player has or continues a confessional, that counts as 2. The focus shifted from the first player to the second player then back to the first player, that is reflected in the counts. If there is a long time break and then a confessional continues, without a break to another player, then I usually just count that as 1. If there is a change of subject I might count it as 2, that's where it becomes a judgment call.

Nothing is counted during Probst's recaps at the start of each episode. Nothing said at Tribal Council is counted, voting confessionals aren't counted. Final words aren't counted.

Any other uses anyone can think of to bring to this thread, have at it, you are more than welcome to add in.

• Week 1,dabo, 09:55 PM, 09-19-13
  • RE: Week 1,Flowerpower, 04:54 PM, 09-21-13
    • RE: Week 1,tribephyl, 06:11 PM, 09-21-13
      • RE: Week 1,Flowerpower, 07:28 AM, 09-24-13
• Week 2,dabo, 09:57 AM, 09-27-13
• Week 3,dabo, 11:35 PM, 10-03-13
  • RE: Week 3,tribephyl, 02:55 AM, 10-04-13
  • RE: Week 3,Flowerpower, 07:35 AM, 10-04-13
• Week 4,dabo, 11:01 PM, 10-10-13
  • RE: Week 4,Flowerpower, 07:24 AM, 10-18-13
• Week 5,dabo, 04:41 PM, 10-18-13
• RE: S27 Confessionals Tracker,dabo, 11:32 AM, 10-25-13
  • RE: S27 Confessionals Tracker,Flowerpower, 03:12 PM, 10-30-13
• Week 7,dabo, 11:59 AM, 11-01-13
• Week 8,dabo, 03:33 PM, 11-07-13
• Week 9,dabo, 12:11 PM, 11-15-13
• Week 10,dabo, 03:25 PM, 11-22-13
• Week 11,dabo, 01:37 PM, 12-02-13
  • RE: Week 11,tribephyl, 03:54 AM, 12-03-13
• Week 12,dabo, 02:08 AM, 12-08-13
  • RE: Week 12,Sheldor, 04:59 AM, 12-08-13
• Week 13,dabo, 01:23 AM, 12-13-13
  • RE: Week 13,tribephyl, 05:02 AM, 12-13-13
  • RE: Week 13,Flowerpower, 07:56 AM, 12-13-13

LAST EDITED ON 09-19-13 AT 09:58 PM (EST)

Had to break ep 1 into intro (first 20 minutes) and remainder of the episode, it only made sense.

episode     i     1 | total
Aras (G)    2 (G) 0 |  2
Brad (T)    2 (T) 8 | 10
Caleb (T)   2 (T) 2 |  4
Candice (G) 1 (R) 1 |  2
Ciera (T)   1 (T) 1 |  2
Colton (G)  2 (G) 1 |  3
Gervase (G) 2 (G) 1 |  3
Hayden (T)  1 (T) 1 |  2
John (T)    3 (T) 1 |  4
Kat (G)     2 (G) 0 |  2
Katie (T)   1 (T) 2 |  3
LauraB (T)  1 (G) 1 |  2
LauraM (G)  1 (G) 3 |  4
Marissa (T) 1 (T) 2 |  3 (R)
Monica (G)  1 (G) 2 |  3
Rachel (T)  2 (T) 0 |  2
Rupert (G)  5 (R) 1 |  6
Tina (G)    2 (G) 0 |  2
Tyson (G)   1 (G) 0 |  1
Vytas (T)   2 (T) 3 |  5

TOTEM POLE
Brad (TT) 10
Rupert (GR) 6
Vytas (TT) 5
Caleb (TT) 4
John (TT) 4
LauraM (GG) 4
Colton (GG) 3
Gervase (GG) 3
Katie (TT) 3
Marissa (TT) 3 (R)
Monica (GG) 3
Aras (GG) 2
Candice (GR) 2
Ciera (TT) 2
Hayden (TT) 2
Kat (GG) 2
LauraB (TG) 2
Rachel (TT) 2
Tina (GG) 2
Tyson (GG) 1

PAIRS
Monica 3, Brad 10: 13
Rupert 6, LauraB 2: 8
Aras 2, Vytas 5: 7
Colton 3, Caleb 4: 7
Candice 2, John 4: 6
Gervase 3, Marissa 3: 6
LauraM 4, Ciera 2: 6
Tina 2, Katie 3: 5
Kat 2, Hayden 2: 4
Tyson 1, Rachel 2: 3

LAST EDITED ON 09-21-13 AT 04:55 PM (EST)

Thanks so much for doing all of this, dabo. It is a little confusing to follow. I think it would be better still to just count the confessionals for one show, not divide them into pre and post events. Regardless, I sure appreciate you doing this each and every week - I love it!

To me, the intro confessionals were chopped and edited to convey what the producers and editors wanted them to say. Nevertheless, as you know, I have always appreciated keeping track of the confessionals.

I think Rupert's amount of confessionals were mostly because Rupert has been a fan favorite and he's going to meet his demise very soon.

I think Brad is the narrator for the loved ones, Tadhana, and he originated the "meat-head" alliance. He's also the "dad" of the group, it appears. WE all know where the narrators usually end up...

While watching the show, I felt that Monica was the narrator, but with the confessional count I see that perhaps it's Laura M. Monica's confessionals seemed to be about summing up Colton and questioning him. Could it be that she will become Colton's first target? And we all know that Colton will revert back to his old self in the coming week.

Vytas had 4 significant confessionals all about his rivalry with his brother, Aras, and how he was the bad seed, the heroin addict, robber who was saved by being arrested. Now he's out for redemption and to beat his goody 2 shoes, resentful brother. Could he be the winner, or could he be the big journey player? Regardless, I feel that he is in GREAT shape, his words were underlined by his actions. He's an end gamer, imo.

Caleb was also looking good in the first episode. He was a rational, perceptive character and I think that he will have some longevity, perhaps.

John, otoh, I think his story is wrapped up around not changing places with Candice. His guilt and his questioning and regretting his actions could be his entire story, perhaps? Or, he may be the nemesis of Brad, the dad, and ex-NFL player.

Laura M and Tina were both visible, Laura a bit more vocal, both showed their smarts in the game at the challenge. Both strong "mothers". I had been thinking that Monica may be the narrator of the game for her tribe, but now that I see Laura had one more, perhaps it is Laura...?

Colton has a hard time adjusting, and his confessionals are leading up to next weeks drama. Gervase has confessionals as perhaps his neice is going out?

Aras' confessionals were related to his resentment of his brother growing up...complementing Vytas' story. Candice had confessionals after being blindsided not only from her tribe, but from her husband as well.

Out of all of the players with 2 confessionals or less, I like their chances, flying under the radar, keeping their noses clean, contributing, etc.....with one exception, Ciera. Admitting that she was a teenage mom, now is married with another child, seems that she is missing her family and starving....additionally, it seems she only wants to beat her mother, which she failed miserably at with the puzzle portion of the challenge. I don't like her chances for longevity.

Frankly, I don't know if there are any real clues to next weeks boots with the confessionals this episode. I think Brad is off to a big start, he is narrating and at the head of the meat head alliance, integral to the oncoming story. Rupert's confessionals may be his swan song, and Vytas I think will most likely be another strong player, character of the season. The question about Vytas is, is he the character, journey player of the season, or is he the winner? If he's the winner, than he was really highlighted in this first episode...

I think Brad is the narrator for the loved ones, Tadhana, and he originated the "meat-head" alliance. He's also the "dad" of the group, it appears. WE all know where the narrators usually end up...

Usually, merge-time, when another longer-term player steps in.
And at this moment Brad is so far out in the confessional lead, I'm beginning to think that he actually isn't the narrator, but is eclipsing the real narrator, as he is an early boot in need of storyline. His confessionals were not tribal oriented but were of the personal game style. Each one outlining what his place in the game is, what work he's done to accomplish his goal, taking his wife's advise and giving his alliance direction. And happening to be edited as dumb and apologetic the whole time.

John, otoh, I think his story is wrapped up around not changing places with Candice. His guilt and his questioning and regretting his actions could be his entire story, perhaps? Or, he may be the nemesis of Brad, the dad, and ex-NFL player.
I believe John is not long for the game. The regret of not replacing his wife at redemption will most likely lead to her having to take him out at RI.

Aras' confessionals were related to his resentment of his brother growing up...complementing Vytas' story.
As to Vytas and Aras. Their relationship is by far the most discussed. Truly fleshed out and all of it was based in resentment and regrets. Perfect fodder for a redemption season. I believe their story is the one that flows through the entire series, but it is a 'journey story' and I believe their focus on "besting" each other will result in two things: 1. They will have a stronger relationship after the game. Because they will come to rely on each other during the game. 2. Neither of them will win. Because they will receive "better" awards for working with each other.

Colton has a hard time adjusting, and his confessionals are leading up to next weeks drama.
Colton. Has not change 1 iota from his previous experience. I fully expect him to "pull a brandon" by being the executor of his own fate. Everything about his edit reflects his OW appearance but this time he is without the entire tribe to mingle with nor has his loved one to help keep him calm. He is absolutely doomed.

Caleb was also looking good in the first episode. He was a rational, perceptive character and I think that he will have some longevity, perhaps.
Claiming that Colton's game will screw his game up, I expect Caleb to do quite well after Colton is gone.

As to the narrator of Galang...
Laura or Monica?

I'd give it to Laura, only because she looks to have less controversy surrounding her AND that her "relative" also has signs of longevity.
Whereas Monica stands on a precipice, bouncing between not being able to use her "ammunition" and her uncertain relationship with Colton. (Both stories worthy of telling.) I think she'll outlast both Colton and Brad, for what it's worth. Then she'll slip back into relative obscurity.

Great assessments, Tribe! I really think you may be right about Brad. ALL of his confessionals were quite egocentric...But, for me, with the take the other men in the group had on Brad, it would be easy to come together and vote him out, and perhaps they need his strength to keep the numbers up so they can have an advantage at merge. Brad just seems like the guy to keep around for now because he's a bigger target than yourself, perhaps. And, he certainly has asserted himself as "the leader"....

Great thoughts!

episode       i+1, 2 | total
Aras (GG)     2+0, 2 |  4
Brad (TT)     2+8, 2 | 12
Caleb (TT)    2+2, 0 |  4
Ciera (TT)    1+1, 2 |  4
Colton (GG)   2+1, 6 |  9
Gervase (GG)  2+1, 0 |  3
Hayden (TT)   1+1, 1 |  3
John (TT)     3+1, 6 | 10
Kat (GG)      2+0, 1 |  3
Katie (TT)    1+2, 1 |  4
LauraB (TG)   1+1, 1 |  3
LauraM (GG)   1+3, 0 |  4
Monica (GG)   1+2, 2 |  5
Rachel (TT)   2+0, 1 |  3 (R)
Tina (GG)     2+0, 1 |  3
Tyson (GG)    1+0, 1 |  2
Vytas (TT)    2+3, 2 |  7
Candice (GR)  1+1, 0 |  2
Marissa (TTR) 1+2, 1 |  4
Rupert (GR)   5+1, 1 |  7 (eliminated)

After first ep jitters things settled down for most of the players, "Culpepper" Brad seems secure. Ominous bumps for Colton and John. Zeroes this week were Caleb (going UTR), Candice (even though she won the duel and gifted John with the clue), Gervase (even though niece Marissa wound up at Redemption), and Laura M. Rachel got a token confessional as the boot story, she and BF Tyson seem to barely be there at all.

TOTEM POLE
Brad (TT) 12
John (TT) 10
Colton (GG) 9
Vytas (TT) 7
Monica (GG) 5
Aras (GG) 4
Caleb (TT) 4
Ciera (TT) 4
Katie (TT) 4
LauraM (GG) 4
Marissa (TTR) 4
Gervase (GG) 3
Hayden (TT) 3
Kat (GG) 3
LauraB (TG) 3
Rachel (TTR) 3
Tina (GG) 3
Candice (GR) 2
Tyson (GG) 2

episode       i+1, 2, 3 | total
Aras (GG)     2+0, 2, 2 |  6
Brad (TT)     2+8, 2, 3 | 15
Caleb (TT)    2+2, 0, 0 |  4
Ciera (TT)    1+1, 2, 1 |  5
Gervase (GG)  2+1, 0, 0 |  3
Hayden (TT)   1+1, 1, 2 |  5
John (TT)     3+1, 6, 3 | 13 (R)
Kat (GG)      2+0, 1, 0 |  3
Katie (TT)    1+2, 1, 0 |  4
LauraB (TG)   1+1, 1, 0 |  3
LauraM (GG)   1+3, 0, 0 |  4
Monica (GG)   1+2, 2, 0 |  5
Tina (GG)     2+0, 1, 0 |  3
Tyson (GG)    1+0, 1, 3 |  5
Vytas (TT)    2+3, 2, 3 | 10
Candice (GR)  1+1, 0, 0 |  2
Marissa (TTR) 1+2, 1, 0 |  4
Eliminated
Rachel (TTR)  2+0, 1, 0 |  3
Quitton (GG)  2+1, 6, 2 | 11
Rupert (GR)   5+1, 1 |  7

Lot of zeroes this week, and Ciera was the lone female to be allowed a confessional.

THE TOTEM POLE
Brad (TT) 15
John (TTR) 13
Vytas (TT) 10
Aras (GG) 6
Ciera (TT) 5
Hayden (TT) 5
Monica (GG) 5
Tyson (GG) 5
Caleb (TT) 4
Katie (TT) 4
LauraM (GG) 4
Marissa (TTR) 4
Gervase (GG) 3
Kat (GG) 3
LauraB (TG) 3
Tina (GG) 3
Candice (GR) 2

with Cierra being the lone female afforded a confessional she may be attached to the boot story this week as well.
Outside of Aras and Tyson, the Tadhana dominated confessionals, the story is going to continue with them.

Wow! They are telling this week, imo, and I must agree with Tribe. The only ones to get confessionals at all at Galang were Colton, aka Quitton, Tyson and Aras. Tyson tells us his thoughts regarding Rachel on RI and leaving, and his injury at the IC. I thought Tyson had a very meaty confessional when he noted that Survivor is a game that too often people take too seriously and then have alot of anger, and referred that Colton was one of these. While Tyson had few confessionals in the intro, his story bumped right here. I don't know if his arc will continue full tilt, OR, it could die down again, as his loved one is no longer in the drama. Tyson also had a million dollar quote, I thought. It went something like now I have to prove I made the right decision to not swap with her and go ALL THE WAY TO THE END!

Tyson also wisely noted that all Brad was doing was placing a larger target on his back. Tyson's confessionals were all meaty and went to the dynamics of the action, which I think bodes well for him...

Aras has confessionals wrapped up in his rivalry with Vytas again. Everyone else, under the radar. While Monica didn't get a confessional, she sure was spotlighted, at the RI, reacting to the Brad "hate", and then again at the shelter after they returned from RI...

Regarding Tadhana, clearly there is alot going on over there. Let's start with Brad, showing arrogance about being the leader, in control, and the decision maker, but doesn't want them all to know that, then immediately, John jokes in the water that he's a solid dude, everyone is much more comfortable because of Brad, we couldn't have been dropped in a more solid position. We all know how much they love irony! ....said the first marked man about the second marked man!

John got alot of confessionals because he was our boot story, and it was tied up with Candice winning and him receiving the clues to the HII. I can't believe the choices that Brad and John have made, after watching 26 seasons of this show....

Hayden, the voice of reason is now narrating the events surrounding Brad. Brad is identified as "just as dangerous" as John, who they believe may have an HII. And, Hayden had the telling confessional regarding the meat head alliance...It's been 5 guys since day one and if we are voting out one right now it could create distrust moving forward, it's kind of like opening Pandora's box...

This foreshadows the demise of the meat head alliance, specifically cutting loose Brad, imo.

Thanks, dabo...

episode       i+1, 2, 3, 4 | total
Aras (GG)     2+0, 2, 2, 1 |  7
Brad (TT)     2+8, 2, 3, 3 | 18 (R)
Caleb (TT)    2+2, 0, 0, 3 |  7
Ciera (TT)    1+1, 2, 1, 1 |  6
Gervase (GG)  2+1, 0, 0, 2 |  5
Hayden (TT)   1+1, 1, 2, 1 |  6
Kat (GG)      2+0, 1, 0, 0 |  3
Katie (TT)    1+2, 1, 0, 0 |  4
LauraB (TG)   1+1, 1, 0, 0 |  3
LauraM (GG)   1+3, 0, 0, 1 |  5
Monica (GG)   1+2, 2, 0, 2 |  7
Tina (GG)     2+0, 1, 0, 0 |  3
Tyson (GG)    1+0, 1, 3, 4 |  9
Vytas (TT)    2+3, 2, 3, 0 | 10
Candice (GR)  1+1, 0, 0, 2 |  4
John (TTR)    3+1, 6, 3, 2 | 15
Eliminated
Marissa (TTR) 1+2, 1, 0, 0 |  4
Rachel (TTR)  2+0, 1, 0 |  3
Quitton (GG)  2+1, 6, 2 | 11
Rupert (GR)   5+1, 1 |  7

Curious curious signs. While Galang continued their domination this week, a few more voices emerged, particularly Caleb's. Males continue to dominate, but there was more than one female voice this week.

Double zeroes: Kat, Katie, LauraB, Tina. And Marissa (eliminated), while Candice and John got a lot of attention. Why? At least for now the Cody's are the Hatfields and the Culpeppers are the McCoys, it is a fued. Hayden continues his voice of post IC loss pattern, he never speaks until it becomes necessary.

But some of the Onlies with no loved ones remaining are starting to emerge, Caleb and Gervase and Tyson. Not Laura B, but those other three.

TOTEM POLE

Brad (TTR) 18
John (TTR) 15
Vytas (TT) 10
Tyson (GG) 9
Aras (GG) 7
Caleb (TT) 7
Monica (GG) 7
Ciera (TT) 6
Hayden (TT) 6
Gervase (GG) 5
LauraM (GG) 5
Katie (TT) 4
Candice (GR) 4
Kat (GG) 3
LauraB (TG) 3
Tina (GG) 3

Just noting the confessionals from last week from a retrospective point of view. We see that Caleb, Gervase, Monica, Laura M, and Candice all had a "spike" in that they came OFF the radar. Caleb was central to the story at Tadhana, while Gervase and Tyson were really central to the story of the week at Galang (Note Tyson had a raise in confessionals as well). Interesting to note that Aras' confessionals die down, as Tyson's and Gervase's are increased....could be a power move, but will they remain in the starring roles at Galang, I don't know? Regardless, they are integral to the action at Galang.

Candice most likely had a spike as her highlight before her boot and the climax of her story. Being reunited with John, and her ultimate impending conflict with Brad Culpepper. Monica is similar as she is reacting to the Brad "hate".

Lastly, Laura M, coming onto the radar preceding her boot episode.

OTOH, players that go from having steady confessionals to suddenly flying under the radar, which either indicates that they are safely out of the conflict on the tribe, OR, it could be a set up prior to their boot story emerging...Vytas. Vytas has been central to alot of the story line, especially with his stellar intro in the first episode as the junkee finding his way and the bully to golden boy, Aras. He has also been shown to be fully ingrained in the boys alliance while also courting and developing relationships with the girls. At this point, I would really be surprised if Vytas went anywhere soon.

All others status quo with steady confessionals or steadily under the radar. I see these people as laying low, to have their story developed later, or ingrained in the dynamics of their tribes, but not at the center of the conflict and therefore safe for the time being.

After seeing the last episode, we will see Laura B come into the spotlight, and we have also heard from Kat. Tyson and Gervase vs Aras conflict is getting underway. Monica is a part of that story, and Tina makes an appearance. Cierra had a very good spike this week with narrating much of the events of her tribe.

LAST EDITED ON 10-18-13 AT 04:41 PM (EST)

Gervase got the only zero this week, Ciera gets a bump. Kat, Katie, Laura B, Tina and Vytas come out of hiding.

episode       i+1, 2, 3, 4, 5 | total
Aras (GG)     2+0, 2, 2, 1, 3 | 10
Caleb (TT)    2+2, 0, 0, 3, 2 |  9
Ciera (TT)    1+1, 2, 1, 1, 4 | 10
Gervase (GG)  2+1, 0, 0, 2, 0 |  5
Hayden (TT)   1+1, 1, 2, 1, 1 |  7
Kat (GG)      2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1 |  4
Katie (TT)    1+2, 1, 0, 0, 1 |  5
LauraB (TG)   1+1, 1, 0, 0, 2 |  5
LauraM (GG)   1+3, 0, 0, 1, 2 |  7 (R)
Monica (GG)   1+2, 2, 0, 2, 2 |  9
Tina (GG)     2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1 |  4
Tyson (GG)    1+0, 1, 3, 4, 1 | 10
Vytas (TT)    2+3, 2, 3, 0, 2 | 12
Brad (TTR)    2+8, 2, 3, 3, 1 | 19
John (TTR)    3+1, 6, 3, 2, 1 | 16
Eliminated
Candice (GR)  1+1, 0, 0, 2, 2 |  6
Marissa (TTR) 1+2, 1, 0, 0 |  4
Rachel (TTR)  2+0, 1, 0 |  3
Colton (GG)   2+1, 6, 2 | 11
Rupert (GR)   5+1, 1 |  7

TOTEM POLE

Brad (TTR) 19
John (TTR) 16
Vytas (TT) 12
Aras (GG) 10
Ciera (TT) 10
Tyson (GG) 10
Caleb (TT) 9
Monica (GG) 9
Hayden (TT) 7
LauraM (GGR) 7
Gervase (GG) 5
Katie (TT) 5
LauraB (TG) 5
Kat (GG) 4
Tina (GG) 4

LAST EDITED ON 10-25-13 AT 11:33 AM (EST)

Week 6

Swap week. Ciera, Katie and the three at RI for the duel got the zeroes this week. Bumps for Gervase, Kat (boot), LauraB, Monica, Tina, Tyson and Vytas. Curiously, Tina and Katie are at the bottom of the totem pole. Steady: Aras, Caleb, Hayden.

episode       i+1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 | total
Aras (GGT)    2+0, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2 | 12
Caleb (TTT)   2+2, 0, 0, 3, 2, 1 | 10
Ciera (TTT)   1+1, 2, 1, 1, 4, 0 | 10
Gervase (GGT) 2+1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 2 |  7
Hayden (TTT)  1+1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1 |  8
Kat (GGG)     2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3 |  7 (R)
Katie (TTG)   1+2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 |  5
LauraB (TGG)  1+1, 1, 0, 0, 2, 3 |  8
Monica (GGG)  1+2, 2, 0, 2, 2, 4 | 13
Tina (GGG)    2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3 |  7
Tyson (GGT)   1+0, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4 | 14
Vytas (TTG)   2+3, 2, 3, 0, 2, 3 | 15
John (TTR)    3+1, 6, 3, 2, 1, 0 | 16
LauraM (GGR)  1+3, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0 |  7
Eliminated
Brad (TTR)    2+8, 2, 3, 3, 1, 0 | 19
Candice (GR)  1+1, 0, 0, 2, 2 |  6
Marissa (TTR) 1+2, 1, 0, 0 |  4
Rachel (TTR)  2+0, 1, 0 |  3
Colton (GG)   2+1, 6, 2 | 11
Rupert (GR)   5+1, 1 |  7

notes. ep1. Candice and LauraB voted out at start, Rupert swapped with LauraB. ep6. Tribal Swaps.

TOTEM POLE

John (TTR) 16
Vytas (TTG) 15
Tyson (GGT) 14
Monica (GGG) 13
Aras (GGT) 12
Caleb (TTT) 10
Ciera (TTT) 10
Hayden (TTT) 8
LauraB (TGG) 8
Gervase (GGT) 7
Kat (GGGR) 7
LauraM (GGR) 7
Tina (GGG) 7
Katie (TTG) 5

Wow. I came here to see if the confessionals could help predict the boot this week, but Laura B and Vytas are both riding high and have had the identical number of confessionals in the past 3 episodes. Both of their arcs are peaking...and, clearly the story is at nuGalang...

Thanks for doing this so diligently, Dabo!

LAST EDITED ON 11-01-13 AT 10:44 PM (EST)

LauraB (boot) and Vytas got the most attention this week, with Kat (elim) sucking up all the attention at RI. Zeroes went to Caleb, Gervase, John (RI) and LauraM (RI). Ciera and Katie bumped back into existence, with Hayden also getting a minor bump. Aras and Tina had minor drops, Monica and Tyson settled way down (steadied) from their spotlights last week. Motion on the totem pole as Vytas takes over the top spot; Ciera, Hayden, LauraB and Tina also on the rise. Three pairs remain (Aras/Vytas, LauraM/Ciera, Tina/Katie), which will be broken up next?

episode       i+1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 | total
Aras (GGT)    2+0, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 1 | 13
Caleb (TTT)   2+2, 0, 0, 3, 2, 1, 0 | 10
Ciera (TTT)   1+1, 2, 1, 1, 4, 0, 1 | 11
Gervase (GGT) 2+1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 2, 0 |  7
Hayden (TTT)  1+1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2 | 10
Katie (TTG)   1+2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1 |  6
LauraB (TGG)  1+1, 1, 0, 0, 2, 3, 3 | 11 (R)
Monica (GGG)  1+2, 2, 0, 2, 2, 4, 1 | 14
Tina (GGG)    2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2 |  9
Tyson (GGT)   1+0, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4, 2 | 16
Vytas (TTG)   2+3, 2, 3, 0, 2, 3, 3 | 18
John (TTR)    3+1, 6, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0 | 16
LauraM (GGR)  1+3, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0 |  7
Eliminated
Kat (GGGR)    2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2 |  9
Brad (TTR)    2+8, 2, 3, 3, 1, 0 | 19
Candice (GR)  1+1, 0, 0, 2, 2 |  6
Marissa (TTR) 1+2, 1, 0, 0 |  4
Rachel (TTR)  2+0, 1, 0 |  3
Colton (GGq)  2+1, 6, 2 | 11
Rupert (GR)   5+1, 1 |  7

notes. ep1. Candice and LauraB voted out at start, Rupert swapped with LauraB. ep6. Tribal Swaps. ep8. Merge (revealed promo post-ep7)

TOTEM POLE

Vytas (TTG) 18 ^
John (TTR) 16
Tyson (GGT) 16
Monica (GGG) 14
Aras (GGT) 13
Ciera (TTT) 11 ^
LauraB (TGGR) 11 ^
Caleb (TTT) 10
Hayden (TTT) 10 ^
Tina (GGG) 9 ^
Gervase (GGT) 7
LauraM (GGR) 7
Katie (TTG) 6

Merge week, and zeroes this time were handed out to Caleb, Katie and Tina. Aras got a boot bump. Vytas holds on to the top of the totem pole with the most attention this time. Daughter Ciera and mother LauraM got big bumps, with Monica also showing up to play. Gervase showed up briefly, holding steady are Hayden and Tyson.

The totem pole indicates that Gervase, Katie and Tina are pretty much out of the running. One of those three could perhaps get back to having a chance, but only one. Gervase, of course, is linked to Tyson, who is leading the charge. Caleb also appears to be on the verge of dropping out.

Vytas is now wearing the biggest target. Power couple Ciera and Laura are also in danger, with Monica scrambling up the game. Good for her. Hayden owns the sweet spot for the moment with the over-all steadiest edit.

episode       i+1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 | total
Aras (GGTK)   2+0, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3 | 16 (R)
Caleb (TTTK)  2+2, 0, 0, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0 | 10
Ciera (TTTK)  1+1, 2, 1, 1, 4, 0, 1, 3 | 14
Gervase(GGTK) 2+1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 2, 0, 1 |  8
Hayden (TTTK) 1+1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1 | 11
Katie (TTGK)  1+2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0 |  6
LauraM (GGRK) 1+3, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 3 | 10
Monica (GGGK) 1+2, 2, 0, 2, 2, 4, 1, 2 | 16
Tina (GGGK)   2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2, 0 |  9
Tyson (GGTK)  1+0, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4, 2, 2 | 18
Vytas (TTGK)  2+3, 2, 3, 0, 2, 3, 3, 4 | 22
Jury
Eliminated
LauraB (TGGR) 1+1, 1, 0, 0, 2, 3, 3, 1 | 12
John (TTR)    3+1, 6, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1 | 17
Kat (GGGR)    2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2 |  9
Brad (TTR)    2+8, 2, 3, 3, 1, 0 | 19
Candice (GR)  1+1, 0, 0, 2, 2 |  6
Marissa (TTR) 1+2, 1, 0, 0 |  4
Rachel (TTR)  2+0, 1, 0 |  3
Colton (GGq)  2+1, 6, 2 | 11
Rupert (GR)   5+1, 1 |  7

notes. ep1. Candice and LauraB voted out at start, Rupert swapped with LauraB. ep6. Tribal Swaps. ep8. Merge, LauraM returns to game.

TOTEM POLE

Vytas (TTGK) 22
Tyson (GGTK) 18
Aras (GGTKR) 16 ^
Monica (GGGK) 16 ^
Ciera (TTTK) 14 ^
Hayden (TTTK) 11 ^
Caleb (TTTK) 10
LauraM (GGRK) 10 ^
Tina (GGGK) 9
Gervase(GGTK) 8
Katie (TTGK) 6

Ciera zeroes this week. Gervase, Katie, Monica, Tina and Tyson have bumps. Vytas continues to hold top spot on the totem pole but Tyson is closing the gap. Of the players still in the game Tyson has top spot, then Monica, then Ciera.

episode       i+1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 | total
Aras (GGTKR)  2+0, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 1 | 17
Caleb (TTTK)  2+2, 0, 0, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1 | 11
Ciera (TTTK)  1+1, 2, 1, 1, 4, 0, 1, 3, 0 | 14
Gervase(GGTK) 2+1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 2, 0, 1, 2 | 10
Hayden (TTTK) 1+1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1 | 12
Katie (TTGK)  1+2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 3 |  9
LauraM (GGRK) 1+3, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 3, 2 | 12
Monica (GGGK) 1+2, 2, 0, 2, 2, 4, 1, 2, 3 | 19
Tina (GGGKR)  2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2, 0, 2 | 11
Tyson (GGTK)  1+0, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4, 2, 2, 5 | 23
Vytas (TTGKR) 2+3, 2, 3, 0, 2, 3, 3, 4, 3 | 25
Jury
Eliminated
LauraB (TGGR) 1+1, 1, 0, 0, 2, 3, 3, 1 | 12
John (TTR)    3+1, 6, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1 | 17
Kat (GGGR)    2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2 |  9
Brad (TTR)    2+8, 2, 3, 3, 1, 0 | 19
Candice (GR)  1+1, 0, 0, 2, 2 |  6
Marissa (TTR) 1+2, 1, 0, 0 |  4
Rachel (TTR)  2+0, 1, 0 |  3
Colton (GGq)  2+1, 6, 2 | 11
Rupert (GR)   5+1, 1 |  7

TOTEM POLE

Vytas (TTGKR) 25
Tyson (GGTK) 23
Monica (GGGK) 19 ^
Aras (GGTKR) 17
Ciera (TTTK) 14
Hayden (TTTK) 12
LauraM (GGRK) 12 ^
Caleb (TTTK) 11
Tina (GGGKR) 11
Gervase(GGTK) 10
Katie (TTGK) 9

notes. ep1. Candice and LauraB voted out at start, Rupert swapped with LauraB. ep6. Tribal Swaps. ep8. Merge, LauraM returns to game.

A lot of shuffling this week. Ciera, Katie and boot Laura M got the most attention, bumping up. Tyson dropped a bit from a high 5 last week, but managed to take top spot on the totem pole. Zeroes went to Redemption Islanders Aras, Tina and Vytas, but also to low man Gervase and immunity winner and tribe feeder Monica, putting her climb into a stall. Hayden continues to have the steadiest edit.

episode       i+1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 | total
Caleb (TTTK)  2+2, 0, 0, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1 | 12
Ciera (TTTK)  1+1, 2, 1, 1, 4, 0, 1, 3, 0, 7 | 21
Gervase(GGTK) 2+1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 2, 0, 1, 2, 0 | 10
Hayden (TTTK) 1+1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2 | 14
Katie (TTGK)  1+2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 3, 5 | 14
LauraM (GGRK) 1+3, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 3, 2, 3 | 15 (R)
Monica (GGGK) 1+2, 2, 0, 2, 2, 4, 1, 2, 3, 0 | 19
Tina (GGGKR)  2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2, 0, 2, 0 | 11
Tyson (GGTK)  1+0, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4, 2, 2, 5, 3 | 26
Vytas (TTGKR) 2+3, 2, 3, 0, 2, 3, 3, 4, 3, 0 | 25
Jury
Aras (GGTKR)  2+0, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 | 17
Eliminated
LauraB (TGGR) 1+1, 1, 0, 0, 2, 3, 3, 1 | 12
John (TTR)    3+1, 6, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1 | 17
Kat (GGGR)    2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2 |  9
Brad (TTR)    2+8, 2, 3, 3, 1, 0 | 19
Candice (GR)  1+1, 0, 0, 2, 2 |  6
Marissa (TTR) 1+2, 1, 0, 0 |  4
Rachel (TTR)  2+0, 1, 0 |  3
Colton (GGq)  2+1, 6, 2 | 11
Rupert (GR)   5+1, 1 |  7

TOTEM POLE

Tyson (GGTK) 26 ^
Vytas (TTGKR) 25
Ciera (TTTK) 21 ^
Monica (GGGK) 19
LauraM (GGRKR) 15 ^
Hayden (TTTK) 14
Katie (TTGK) 14 ^
Caleb (TTTK) 12
Tina (GGGKR) 11
Gervase(GGTK) 10

notes. ep1. Candice and LauraB voted out at start, Rupert swapped with LauraB. ep6. Tribal Swaps. ep8. Merge, LauraM returns to game.

LAST EDITED ON 12-02-13 AT 01:42 PM (EST)

Immunity streak Monica zeroed this week, as did jurist Vytas. Team Mom at RI each got a token confessional, as did boot Caleb (who almost got ignored). Ciera dropped down a bit but continued to dominate, along with Tyson, with Hayden getting a slight bump. Katie also dropped a bit but, along with Hayden, climbs the totem pole. Gervase and Tina share the bottom.

episode       i+1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 | total
Caleb (TTTK)  2+2, 0, 0, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1 | 13 (R)
Ciera (TTTK)  1+1, 2, 1, 1, 4, 0, 1, 3, 0, 7, 3 | 24
Gervase(GGTK) 2+1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 2, 0, 1, 2, 0, 2 | 12
Hayden (TTTK) 1+1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3 | 17
Katie (TTGK)  1+2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 3, 5, 3 | 17
LauraM(GGRKR) 1+3, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 3, 2, 3, 1 | 16
Monica (GGGK) 1+2, 2, 0, 2, 2, 4, 1, 2, 3, 0, 0 | 19
Tina (GGGKR)  2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2, 0, 2, 0, 1 | 12
Tyson (GGTK)  1+0, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4, 2, 2, 5, 3, 4 | 30
Jury
Vytas (TTGKR) 2+3, 2, 3, 0, 2, 3, 3, 4, 3, 0, 0 | 25
Aras (GGTKR)  2+0, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 | 17
Eliminated
LauraB (TGGR) 1+1, 1, 0, 0, 2, 3, 3, 1 | 12
John (TTR)    3+1, 6, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1 | 17
Kat (GGGR)    2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2 |  9
Brad (TTR)    2+8, 2, 3, 3, 1, 0 | 19
Candice (GR)  1+1, 0, 0, 2, 2 |  6
Marissa (TTR) 1+2, 1, 0, 0 |  4
Rachel (TTR)  2+0, 1, 0 |  3
Colton (GGq)  2+1, 6, 2 | 11
Rupert (GR)   5+1, 1 |  7

TOTEM POLE

Tyson (GGTK) 30
Ciera (TTTK) 24
Monica (GGGK) 19
Hayden (TTTK) 17 ^
Katie (TTGK) 17 ^
LauraM(GGRKR) 16
Caleb (TTTKR) 13
Gervase(GGTK) 12
Tina (GGGKR) 12

notes. ep1. Candice and LauraB voted out at start, Rupert swapped with LauraB. ep6. Tribal Swaps. ep8. Merge, LauraM returns to game.

Katie has a dip.
Ciera has an even bigger dip.
Tyson gains 1.

Of the three? I'd say Ciera looks the most in danger of being white rocked. (Her edit might be for a possible future return.)
But I wouldn't be surprised to see Katie go either.

Wow, that was a great TC, Hayden pulled a Caleb and conjured up the rocks! Weird week in confessionals, too, as zeroes went to eliminated Caleb, boot Katie, vote magnet Monica (third week in a row, though she shows signs of waking up soon), and RIslanders LauraM and Tina. Gervase and Hayden bumped way up, climbing the totem pole, while Ciera and Tyson drew the rest of the attention.

episode       i+1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 | total
Ciera (TTTK)  1+1, 2, 1, 1, 4, 0, 1, 3, 0, 7, 3, 2 | 26
Gervase(GGTK) 2+1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 2, 0, 1, 2, 0, 2, 4 | 16
Hayden (TTTK) 1+1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 6 | 23
Katie (TTGK)  1+2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 3, 5, 3, 0 | 17 (R)
LauraM(GGRKR) 1+3, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 3, 2, 3, 1, 0 | 16
Monica (GGGK) 1+2, 2, 0, 2, 2, 4, 1, 2, 3, 0, 0, 0 | 19
Tina (GGGKR)  2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2, 0, 2, 0, 1, 0 | 12
Tyson (GGTK)  1+0, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4, 2, 2, 5, 3, 4, 3 | 33
Jury
Caleb (TTTKR) 2+2, 0, 0, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 | 13
Vytas (TTGKR) 2+3, 2, 3, 0, 2, 3, 3, 4, 3, 0, 0 | 25
Aras (GGTKR)  2+0, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 | 17
Eliminated
LauraB (TGGR) 1+1, 1, 0, 0, 2, 3, 3, 1 | 12
John (TTR)    3+1, 6, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1 | 17
Kat (GGGR)    2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2 |  9
Brad (TTR)    2+8, 2, 3, 3, 1, 0 | 19
Candice (GR)  1+1, 0, 0, 2, 2 |  6
Marissa (TTR) 1+2, 1, 0, 0 |  4
Rachel (TTR)  2+0, 1, 0 |  3
Colton (GGq)  2+1, 6, 2 | 11
Rupert (GR)   5+1, 1 |  7

TOTEM POLE
Tyson (GGTK) 33
Ciera (TTTK) 26
Hayden (TTTK) 23 ^
Monica (GGGK) 19
Katie (TTGKR) 17
Gervase(GGTK) 16 ^
LauraM(GGRKR) 16
Tina (GGGKR) 12

notes. ep1. Candice and LauraB voted out at start, Rupert swapped with LauraB. ep6. Tribal Swaps. ep8. Merge, LauraM returns to game.

Thanks Dabo!!

Last season after Week 12 dabo and tribephyl posted VERY interesting "TP Comparisons".

I'm copying their posts here. Note I added S27 Totem Pole to dabo's post.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/8013.shtml#28

dabo 05-02-13, 08:14 PM (EST)

28. "TP Comparisons"

Just for fun I thought I'd bring along totem poles from recent seasons, all week 12, for comparison.

S27                at RI
33 Tyson           17 Katie
26 Ciera           16 LauraM
23 Hayden          12 Tina
19 Monica
16 Gervase
S26
45 Cochran (Winner)
20 Dawn
16 Eddie
15 Sherri
11 Erik
07 Brenda
S25
45 Malcolm
32 Lisa
25 Denise (Winner)
20 Michael
18 Abi-Maria
S24
33 Kim (Winner)
31 Sabrina
25 Alicia
23 Chelsea
12 Tarzan
11 Christina
S23                at RI
49 Coach           33 Ozzy
24 Brandon         16 Edna
15 Sophie (Winner)
12 Albert
06 Rick
S22                at RI
52 Rob (Winner)    26 Mike
32 Phillip         24 Matt
13 Ashley          17 Ralph
10 Grant           16 Andrea
07 Natalie
S21
24 Jane
24 Holly
23 Chase
21 Fabio (Winner)
19 Sash
10 Dan

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/8013.shtml#29

tribephyl 05-03-13, 03:15 PM (EST)

29. "RE: TP Comparisons"

I wonder if there is a trend here...

The even seasons seem to have the winner placing first in confessionals, while the odd seasons trend towards the eventual winner down the list a bit, like 3rd or 4th.

S26 Probable Winner in 1st w/ confessionals.
S25 Winner in 3rd w/ confessionals.
S24 Winner in 1st w/ Confessionals.
S23 Winner in 3rd w/ confessionals.
S22 Winner in 1st w/ Confessionals.
S21 Winner in 4th w/ confessionals.

So next season we should be looking for the survivor who is 3rd (or 4th) in confessionals to be the winner.

Oh if only it were this easy.
===============================

According to this trend...

S27: 3rd is Hayden(23) and 4th is Monica(19)

S21 Winner Fabio had 21 confessionals
S23 Winner Sophie had 15 confessionals
S25 Winner Denise had 25 confessionals

Odd Season Winners had an average of 20.3 confessionals at Week 12 which is between Hayden and Monica

Or #1 Confessionals that did NOT win are:

S21 Jane and Holly with 24 confessionals
S23 Coach with 49 confessionals
S25 Malcolm with 45 confessionals

Tyson has 33 confessionals (same as Ozzy on RI on S23 SP) and the same as S24 Winner Kim

Well, another thrilling TC, and thank goodness this crazy season is almost done. Ciera, Hayden and Monica (after a three-week hiatus) shared top honors this week, each taking 4 confessionals. Laura at RI got the lone zero, which might be onimous except that Katie and Tina were briefly united. Gervase dropped to 1 this week, Tyson to 2, but he still owns the top of the totem pole. No movement on the totem pole this time except that Gervase is no longer tied with Laura.

episode       i+1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9 10 11 12 13 | total
Ciera (TTTK)  1+1, 2, 1, 1, 4, 0, 1, 3, 0, 7, 3, 2, 4 | 30
Gervase(GGTK) 2+1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 2, 0, 1, 2, 0, 2, 4, 1 | 17
Hayden (TTTK) 1+1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 3, 6, 4 | 27 (R)
LauraM(GGRKR) 1+3, 0, 0, 1, 2, 0, 0, 3, 2, 3, 1, 0, 0 | 16
Monica (GGGK) 1+2, 2, 0, 2, 2, 4, 1, 2, 3, 0, 0, 0, 4 | 23
Tina (GGGKR)  2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2, 0, 2, 0, 1, 0, 2 | 14
Tyson (GGTK)  1+0, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4, 2, 2, 5, 3, 4, 3, 2 | 35
Jury
Katie (TTGKR) 1+2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 3, 5, 3, 0, 1 | 18
Caleb (TTTKR) 2+2, 0, 0, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 | 13
Vytas (TTGKR) 2+3, 2, 3, 0, 2, 3, 3, 4, 3, 0, 0 | 25
Aras (GGTKR)  2+0, 2, 2, 1, 3, 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 | 17
Eliminated
LauraB (TGGR) 1+1, 1, 0, 0, 2, 3, 3, 1 | 12
John (TTR)    3+1, 6, 3, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1 | 17
Kat (GGGR)    2+0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 3, 2 |  9
Brad (TTR)    2+8, 2, 3, 3, 1, 0 | 19
Candice (GR)  1+1, 0, 0, 2, 2 |  6
Marissa (TTR) 1+2, 1, 0, 0 |  4
Rachel (TTR)  2+0, 1, 0 |  3
Colton (GGq)  2+1, 6, 2 | 11
Rupert (GR)   5+1, 1 |  7

TOTEM POLE
Tyson (GGTK) 35
Ciera (TTTK) 30
Hayden (TTTKR) 27
Monica (GGGK) 23
Gervase(GGTK) 17
LauraM(GGRKR) 16
Tina (GGGKR) 14

notes. ep1. Candice and LauraB voted out at start, Rupert swapped with LauraB. ep6. Tribal Swaps. ep8. Merge, LauraM returns to game.

Not to carp on the whole 1st or 3rd/4th debate but...
Tyson ~ 35
Ciera ~ 30
Hayden ~ 27
Monica ~ 23

It's either... Tyson, Hayden or Monica for the win.
(Not...Ciera.)

Interesting that Hayden has had a really good edit this season and seems to be Tyson's only real competition, yet is already at RI.
Interesting that Monica is also an option. I wonder if she actually could get votes if in F3.

LAST EDITED ON 12-13-13 AT 07:57 AM (EST)

Looking at the confessionals from last week, we should have been able to predict that it would be Hayden and not Ciera that would be the boot....just saying!

After the last episode I just see no possible way that Monica wins this game...nor Gervase for that matter...