Honey Badger Don't Care. warning: explicit language

ADVISORY: Vote threads are open to all who wish to participate and cast their votes, spoilers and non-spoilers alike. The posts initiating these threads contain no spoiler information other than perhaps referencing what has been revealed in TV promos for the upcoming episode. Non-spoilers, be advised that spoilers may include information in their posts here which you may not wish to read. Spoilers, please do not include spoiler information for future episodes, stick to the episode in question. Thank you.

The DAWs

BIKAL TRIBE
Andrea Boehlke
Brandon Hantz
Brenda Lowe
Corinne Kaplan
Dawn Meehan
Erik Reichenbach
John "Cochran" Cochran
Malcolm Freeberg
Phillip Sheppard

GOTA TRIBE
Alexandra "Allie" Pohevitz
Edward "Eddie" Fox
Hope Driskill
Julia Landauer
Laura Alexander
Matt Bischoff
Michael Snow
Reynold Toepfer
Shamar Thomas
Sherri Biethman

ELIMINATED
Francesca Hogi (Bikwlal)

The Rules

1. Put the name of your choice for this week's boot in the subject heading.

This is easy, just erase the bit where it says "Re: SurvivorBlowsTribe, Time to Vote..." and replace with your vote, e.g., "Hope." Or, if you think this will be a two-boot week: "Hope & Corinne." It doesn't matter which order you put them in unless it matters to you.

This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately. Nicknames are tougher to tally unless they are really obvious without actually reading your post.

Other things you want to vote on (who wins which challenge, what about the HIIs, first confessional, colors of Jiffy's shirts), these should go in your post not in your subject line.

2. Reply only to this post.

We like a nice straight vote thread. It's easier that way.

EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES!

2b. But to change your vote do reply to your own vote post.

Your new post heading should read, for example, "VOTE CHANGE: Shamar." Or perhaps "VOTE CHANGE: Shamar & Erik" if you think it will be a two-boot week.

3. This is not a discussion thread do not treat it as such.

Make your case as much as you want (please), but there are plenty of places on the forum to debate the merits of people's arguments, have discussions, have civil and polite disagreements: this is a vote thread.

But please feel free to discuss your vote(s) in your own post, cast all the extra votes you want, make jokes, we're really all most interested in what you have to say.

4. No graphics.

Well, unless you insist. If you do include a graphic please make it pertinent to something in this episode.

5. Have fun!

Put that cat out for the night.

• Matt ,PepeLePew13, 03:48 AM, 02-19-13
• Hope ,Scarlett O Hara, 09:38 AM, 02-19-13
• Allie,dabo, 12:38 PM, 02-19-13
• Laura,tribephyl, 05:44 PM, 02-19-13
• Allie,crispy06, 09:33 PM, 02-19-13
• Hope,michel, 09:40 PM, 02-19-13
• Vote Tally #1,dabo, 02:09 PM, 02-20-13
• HEY ALLIE...,Round Robin, 02:59 PM, 02-20-13
• Allie,CTgirl, 03:21 PM, 02-20-13
• Shamar,SOAR64, 05:08 PM, 02-20-13
• Laura,Loree, 06:01 PM, 02-20-13
• Bye-bye ... Allie,Belle Book, 07:44 PM, 02-20-13
• Allie,Flowerpower, 08:38 PM, 02-20-13
• Vote Tally #2,dabo, 08:58 PM, 02-20-13

LAST EDITED ON 02-19-13 AT 03:59 AM (EST)

Tribephyl has laid out a vidcap essay on how the challenge is going to unfold, and while we don't see the ending, it appears the Faves are ahead of the Fans. We also see a lot of vidcaps of the Fans in camp with few of the Faves (and they're mostly in a joking around manner with the monikers or talking about how loco Phillip is), so it would make sense that the boot is coming from the Fans this time around.

So who goes? We saw a new alliance with the Cool Four but the problem is that four does not beat six in a tribe of 10. We do see, however, that there might be a future challenge where Eddie is throwing a hook in his intro - we haven't seen a challenge like this nor do we see any in the vidcaps so far, so I'm thinking this is for next episode. If that's the case, then Eddie is safe this episode and Hope is also safe as she's seen in there. Reynold and Allie also appear to be safe as they've had more of a role in the first episode than most of the others in their tribe.

Laura had what I thought was a decent comment about the unwise move of cuddling in the shelter at night, so she might outlast some of those who were guilty of doing so. Sherri and Michael did not appear to be at an immediate risk.

Leading candidates for the boot? Matt, Julia and Shamar. Shamar, as pointed out in the vidcap thread, was in almost every single background lazing about and sleeping, so the tribe could decide he's not worth keeping around for his laziness ... but he's such an imposing physical threat in challenges, so the tribe might have bigger fish to fry than him at the moment. Julia also had some scenes where she was sitting a bit further back from the rest of the tribe, but I don't get the sense she's in immediate danger.

That leaves Matt for me as this week's boot. He's a misfit in the tribe and doesn't have any apparent allies other than Michael. He fits the prototype for a first tribal boot.

ETA: I'm up in the air on this boot. I mentioned Eddie throwing a rope in his intro - it's a different colour (generic khaki colour) from the one seen in the vidcaps for the challenge (bright colours matching the tribe colours), but if it turns out that his intro shot *is* from this episode, then that changes my thinking as to who's safe and who's at risk. There's quite a few shots of Hope in the vidcaps, without any apparent reason to include her ... so she would be my back-up boot pick.

... doesn't float!

In the SeeBS clues this week we were told "matchless teamwork and disorganization from one tribe leaves little room for competition during a tiered Immunity Challenge." I believe the disorganization is coming from the inexperienced Fans. I believe they will lose the combined IC/RC this week.

Last week, we were shown the "Kewl Kids" alliance of Eddie/Hope/Reynold/Allie from the Fans (this alone, makes me think that they are indeed, NOT fans because if they were Fans they would know what happens to Kewl kids on Survivor. We were also shown Laura and Sherri talking about their night-time cuddle sessions. Last week they also showed us Matt + Mike vowing to stick together and deciding to leave their options "open". So what do we have? We have the Kewl Kids 4 and then Laura/Sherri/Julie and Mike/Matt. It is unknown at this time where Shamar will fit in. We have already seen him disagreeing with Matt over the shelter/fire debate.

In a tribe of 10, there must be six votes to vote someone off. For the Kewl Kids to have their way, they would need to recruit two votes. While Dawn and Cochran were the swing votes for Bikal tribe, I perceive Mike and Matt to be the swing votes of the Gota tribe. This week, I think they will swing with Laura and company and their target will be either Hope or Allie. I'm going with Hope. As for Shamar, I think he would rather see a weak female go than a stronger male, but I'm unsure how he comes to vote with Laura + company.

She's in a lot of photos this week. Plus she and Reynold spent the first night being obvious. Plus the kewl kids have to be knocked down a peg, and she is the most expendable.

Sorry, Eddie, but everyone doesn't want to sit at your table, everyone thinks their table is the one to be sitting at.

As for quit talk, could maybe see some of that coming from Shamar because he's not in the best condition (shame they aren't getting all the rain they had last season), but I think Marine pride won't let him actually call it quits. Brenda, ironically, since she's not in the power alliance in Bikal, could be the one thinking she might as well throw in the towel. Really, though, I think this all comes from Brandon's reign of terror as he tries everything to upset things in his own favor. Curse of Zane upon him.

Okay, it begins with a peek into the future where we have Shamar, Eddie, Hope and Matt participating in future challenges.
Which leaves us with Reynold, Julia, Laura, Michael, Allie and Sherri as our possibilities for bootation.
Of those 6; Reynold, Michael and Sherri are seemingly the safest.
Which leaves Julia, Laura and Allie as prime boot candidates.
Measuring the pros and cons of of each of them...
Julia:
PROS: Challenge prowess, non-inflammatory, hard worker around camp.
CONS: Not in an apparent alliance, seemingly suffering from the elements in ep2.

Laura:
PROS: Spearheading the opposing alliance to the KewlKids.
CONS: Challenge liability, spearheading the opposing alliance to the KewlKids. JP's mention that Laura's biggest obstacle is herself.

Allie:
PROS: Has shown some challenge ability. Included in the KewlKids alliance. Least threatening member of the KKA.
CONS: Even her alliance thinks she's less than average.

First boots are normally due to possessing a few specific traits. Most of these traits can be overlooked if the player is nice, doesn't play TOO hard or is seen as a major contributor to the entire tribe. The only one that seems capable of adjusting their strategies or having the ability to become more useful to the tribe is Julia.
So, for me, it really comes down to Laura or Allie.

When comparing the two of them, Laura is a definite challenge liability. She also has not been contributing much to the benefit of the tribe. She is also the spearhead of an opposing alliance to the KKA. Whereas Allie has been capable in challenges, contributes to the tribe and has not been overtly rude or scheming.

Now, with Michael and Matt supposedly playing the middle between a solid alliance and a scattered alliance, my thoughts are that M&M are gonna want to stay with the numbers and NOT make enemies of the two strongest men on the tribe, just yet.
Therefore, an easy vote for everyone will be to boot Laura.

We've seen more press photos from fans camp and the description talks about disorganization which i think is more in line with the fans. Now we know the tribal dynamics are cool kids 4 vs 3 women shamhar and then mike/matt as swing votes. I think Mike/Matt are going to want to keep the tribe strong so it's going to be a woman. The person who had more of a set-up or has been established has been Laura and Allie has gotten some development as well but Allie said something that struck me, she said she had what it takes to get to the end...so I'm picking her to kick the bucket.

I'm pretty sure Michael will want to work with Reynold later on but he needs to open up a spot at the kids' table. Getting rid of Hope accomplishes that.

This is post #7, vote tally #1, compiling 6 votes and no other posts.

Allie: 2
Hope: 2
Laura: 1
Matt: 1
all others: UTR

...it's time for you to go!

I'm pretty sure that it will be one of the 3 interchangeable blondes: Hope, Allie or Laura.

Laura had a key comment last week, “The first night, everybody was just looking for body warmth so it was just like we were all piling in but I noticed, because I was sleeping next to Reynold and Allie, that their cuddling was a little bit more…Not a smart move. Romantic alliances do not work on Survivor. You are going to get targeted right away.”

Allie cuddled openly, Hope did not so I think Laura targets Allie. Either that or the target fails and Laura is history!

I have no idea who it will be this early in the game. But Shamar would be my choice if I were there.

I really don't know. Just a hunch.

The Kewl Kids forgot one thing: 4 > 10. Worse, Raymond and Allie are too obvious of a pair. Out goes Allie.

Alt: Hope or maybe Laura.

LAST EDITED ON 02-20-13 AT 08:39 PM (EST)

Bikal wins the RC/IC. One of the cool girls is going home I think. Since HOpe is seen in a future challenge, I'll go with Allie...

I don't think anyone will find a HII yet...

ETA: My second choices would be Julia or Laura

This is post #14, vote tally #2, compiling 12 votes and 1 previous tally.

Allie: 6
Hope: 2
Laura: 2
Matt: 1
Shamar: 1
all others: UTR