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"Episode 5 Vidcaps Thread"
Posted by Flowerpower on 10-11-12 at 03:43 PM
Please place all vidcaps related to episode 5 here, and NO SOURCED spoilers here!
Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"Preview Promo"
Posted by Flowerpower on 10-11-12 at 06:39 PM
Thanks for all that you do, Survivor Fever!
































Transcript:

Jeff Probst: Next time on Survivor, with Matsing down to only two members...

Malcolm: Two of us against two tribes of 6.

Probst: ...the idol is their only hope.

Malcolm: This might be my last chance. I feel like an idiot.

Probst: And for Kalabaw, everything is about to change.

Probst (talking to tribe): The only time medical pulls anyone from this game is when their life is in danger. Wow.

"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-11-12 at 08:55 PM
Thanks FloPo and SF!

So we know the medivac is from Kalabaw. Whose foot is that? Looks like a woman - suspect #1. Does the foot belong to the woman in the pink shirt who looks sick?

Suspect #2 is Kent...but would a knee injury alone be enough? Probst mentions pulling someone when their life is danger.

By the way, which of the Kalabaw men is Jeff talking to in the last vidcap with the wedding band on his finger? Don't think Carter is married...is that Kent or Penner? In the knee brace shot, Kent's finger appears to be bandaged and looks more knarly so leaning toward Penner. Maybe he has to make a decision on behalf of his tribe?

"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by SOAR64 on 10-12-12 at 07:48 AM
Could the hand belong to one of the medical team members who were called in to handle the medical emergency?
"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-11-12 at 09:02 PM
So how do Denise and Malcolm get another clue? Maybe because Russell had the clue and got voted off they give their tribe a new one? Will the other tribes get clues too?

It appears to read:
Living from the sea
And living off the land
Staying alive in this game
__ing the Idol in your hand

"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by crispy06 on 10-11-12 at 10:52 PM
Is the medivac Dawson? Maybe she gets really sick like Colton did last season. Or is it somebody who is not shown? Colton was shown in the previews for his medivac episode. I think this should be easy to find out as more press photos emerge.
"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by dabo on 10-11-12 at 10:58 PM
Well, who Jeff is with is easy enough.


wedding ring, finger bandaged


wedding ring, bandage off (hard for me to tell)

"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by dabo on 10-11-12 at 11:14 PM
from ep 3


"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by michel on 10-11-12 at 11:42 PM
The only hints of having to leave the game in Kalabaw have been Kent's knee but that doesn't fit with life or death talk from Jeff. Dawson looks sick in those pictures but I'd suggest Katie as the one requesting the quit boat. Her edit is so awful she could be Purple Kelly.
"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by suzzee on 10-12-12 at 09:25 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-12-12 AT 09:28 AM (EST)

This tarp looks rather used and frayed, Kalabaw's tarp should look much newer but I suppose a few days of dragging around will tear it up. Did it look used when they got it?



What a lovely bunch of coconuts.

"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by dabo on 10-12-12 at 12:20 PM

In this shot Dana is sleeping next to Carter, Dawson and Katie are sleeping next to each other, Jeff is sitting up acting like he has a headache, Jonathan is standing.

If Dawson or Katie stick a foot out from their position it crosses the poles, Dana's foot would be aligned with the poles.

Dana could, of course, change her position in the shelter later, after Carter gets up.

"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by Flowerpower on 10-12-12 at 03:30 PM
I agree with the spec that someone from Kalabaw is getting medivac'd. But, I do not think it will be Jeff and his knee problem. I was shocked to see him have a knee brace there, that they must be letting him use. I don't think his knee is bothering him that much. He sure doesn't act like it. And, as someone up above noted, Jiffy explains that a medivac is a life or death situation. Jeff's knee is not life or death.

So, if it's not Jeff, and apparently not Jonathan. It could be any of the others. So far none of them have appeared injured or sick. I appreciate the thinking with the tarp spec up above. One thing to notice is that Kalabaw got a second tarp, instead of food and spices at the last challenge. I think they had one and it's over the shelter. I think they have torn the new one, and are using it as 2 blankets.

I think this shot...

is in the AM, most likely, as someone also noted above, Jonathan is standing, and Jeff is sitting, while the others are still sleepy, sleeping. I don't necessarily equate that scene in the AM, with this scene...

I think the foot is associated with Jiffy being there...

I agree with those that are thinking the foot is the key. The foot belongs to the medivac.

"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by michel on 10-12-12 at 04:42 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-12-12 AT 04:44 PM (EST)

So, the game is afoot but the foot is not game?

I still say it's Katie and Jeff's words could have this meaning: Katie wants to go home but she doesn't want to be labeled a quitter. She wants to use an illness as excuse. But Jeff calls a quitter a quitter: "We don't remove a player from the game for a broken nail. The only time medical pulls anyone from this game is when their life is in danger. If you want to quit then quit."

"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 10-14-12 at 08:49 AM
The foot is afoot and it belongs to a woman! I'm on board with Michel. Maybe Katie is ready to quit and feigns sickness. Jiffy and Medivac are called where Jiffy explains to the tribe ... "we only medivac players when it is life-threatening." In other words, we won't take you out if you want to quit. If this tribe goes to Tribal Council ... who do you think will be voted out? The woman with "the foot" afoot...

Just sayin'

"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by crispy06 on 10-12-12 at 04:54 PM
The foot in question looks small, possibly belongs to a woman. I think we need to narrow it down to the people on Kalabaw that have atleast gotten some development to make the medivac somewhat sad and make the audience care. We don't know anything Carter and Katie, so it's not them. Jeff/Jonathan have been used as misdirection for the last three promos, it's not them. So I've concluded that either Dana or Dawson is the medivac, that would greatly change the alliance structure on kalabaw.
"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by Murphy3126 on 10-12-12 at 05:55 PM
I seem to remember that some of the previous "quitters" received little or no development prior to their leaving. Don't know it it was to punish quitters, to promote those toughing it out, or just CBS desire to focus on key players staying in the game.
"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by dabo on 10-12-12 at 11:19 PM
That was true for Purple Kelly, which is how they would prefer to edit anyone who just quits. It wasn't true of Na'Onka, who quit at the same time. Unfortunately, the editors are at the mercy of the material they have.

After that they announced that quitters could be prohibited from jury duty (which I think probably would also cut down on the amount they get paid since they aren't in as many episodes) to further discourage quitting.

Some people who don't quit always receive little attention in the edit, generally because they are unimportant or just plain boring.

"RE: Preview Promo"
Posted by michel on 10-12-12 at 07:02 PM
Purple Kelly.
"E5 Press Pics"
Posted by Blind Freddy on 10-12-12 at 05:54 PM
E5 Press Pics

Courtesy of SurvivorFever (ty Mayan Sun)
http://www.survivorfever.net/s25_ep5_press_images.html

"RE: E5 Press Pics"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 10-12-12 at 08:44 PM
>

No Dana in this group pic or in any of the other press pics featuring Kalabaw?

"RE: E5 Press Pics"
Posted by crispy06 on 10-12-12 at 11:00 PM
This must have been on a different day than the challenge because malcolm/denise are not present. Since i suspect there is a tribe reshuffling or dissolving of Matsing at the reward challenge.
"RE: E5 Press Pics"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-12-12 at 11:38 PM
Good catch, Pepe! Dana is the one with the spiky hair, right? She is actually my favorite of the 3 women on Penner's tribe, although it's hard to say for sure since they all say so little.

Dana seems to have spunk and does not strike me as a quitter, but then again, if she's truly sick or injured that might change things.

I like Michael's suggestion that Probst might be explaining that normally medivacs are for life/death situations and maybe it's the other quiet woman (forgot her name). And I really like the idea that the reason that other woman has such a Purple Kelly edit is because she's a wimp and quits for a minor injury/illness.

"RE: E5 Press Pics"
Posted by byoffer on 10-14-12 at 10:29 AM

Matsing has brought their bags of possessions to the challenge. None of the other tribes have. IMO this confirms that they are told to do so, and the two of them are distributed to the other tribes.

"NO SOURCED spoilers here please!"
Posted by Bebo on 10-12-12 at 07:55 PM
Post removed since it referenced a sourced spoiler.


"RE: NO SOURCED spoilers here please!"
Posted by tribephyl on 10-12-12 at 10:38 PM
Thanks beebs. That could have been disasterous.
"RE: NO SOURCED spoilers here please!"
Posted by dabo on 10-12-12 at 11:11 PM
The post itself didn't actually reveal anything much, though of course it shouldn't have been posted in the first place.

For anyone totally unspoiled reading this, you are still unspoiled.

"RE: NO SOURCED spoilers here please!"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-12-12 at 11:56 PM
Dabo, I'm still catching up on this season. Where are the sourced spoilers? Is it a full boot list or just hints and pieces? Thx
"RE: NO SOURCED spoilers here please!"
Posted by dabo on 10-13-12 at 00:51 AM
Hi, SPQ. I'm not even going to link to source spoilers in a non-sourced thread, but I sent some links to your inbox. Go to the lobby and see the red wavy flag. You will discover when you read the links that there are some contradictory spoils.

I can answer the boot list question here. No, there is not a full boot list from any of the source spoilers, none of them gave out any boot lists. As far as boot lists are concerned, it is all speculation.

"RE: NO SOURCED spoilers here please!"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-13-12 at 05:55 PM
Thanks Dabo! Sounds like fun if there are just teasers and clues but no boot list.
"RE: NO SOURCED spoilers here please!"
Posted by Bebo on 10-13-12 at 04:33 PM
>The post itself didn't actually reveal anything much, though of course it shouldn't have been posted in the first place.

Agreed. But I didn't want the line blurred.

"RE: Episode 5 Vidcaps Thread"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-12-12 at 11:54 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-13-12 AT 00:06 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 10-13-12 AT 00:05 AM (EST)

In this vidcap, does it look like Penner has a wedding band on his finger? Penner's hands seem to less hairy and knarly vs Kent's. Still wondering if Probst is talking to Penner (vs Kent) as leader of the tribe when the medivac situation happens. Having gone through a medivac himself, I think this would be an emotional situation for Penner and they will milk it for all it's worth.

"RE: Episode 5 Vidcaps Thread"
Posted by michel on 10-13-12 at 05:37 PM
Promo during College Football shows that it is Dana that gets ill and it looks serious.

The announcer also if Kent will be able to keep the secret about his identity.

All about Kalabaw which is new!

"RE: Episode 5 Vidcaps Thread"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-13-12 at 05:52 PM
Thanks Michel. Bummer about Dana. But makes sense given she's missing in all the press pics....kinda like that Southern racist guy who was missing in the vidcaps before he got medvac'd.

Can't imagine Dana quit...must be serious. Will be interesting to see how this will impact the female vs. male alliances, unless Denise fills in for Dana and they're back to 3v3. But if Malcolm goes to Kalabaw, the women on that tribe are toast. (Actually, I'm thinking they're toast either way, given the lack of edit/character development. I still don't know their names.)

So if Dana goes, looks like 6 on one tribe and 7 on the other going forward.

"RE: Episode 5 Vidcaps Thread"
Posted by crispy06 on 10-13-12 at 06:30 PM
I think Dana is the medivac. Now to decide whether there is still a boot for episode 5? There was none when Colton was medivaced.
"RE: Episode 5 Vidcaps Thread"
Posted by dabo on 10-13-12 at 08:15 PM
Colton being pulled from the game got the remaining players down to the intended merge number, a challenge was cancelled and both tribes were sent to TC where Jeff ended the TC by announcing the merge. It's too early for that but they do need to do something to switch up things and get down to two tribes.

I think we should go on the assumption that there will be someone voted off this time.

"RE: Episode 5 Vidcaps Thread"
Posted by crispy06 on 10-13-12 at 08:34 PM
Ok if someone is voted out then the numbers go down to 12. So does that mean a merge is coming at episode 6? That seems too soon. Maybe it will be a merge at 10.
"College Football Promo"
Posted by Flowerpower on 10-13-12 at 08:23 PM


































Transcript:

Announcer: Wednesday on Survivor, can the former baseball star keep his identity a secret? And will a dramatic illness claim another castaway?

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by crispy06 on 10-13-12 at 08:36 PM
Marcus on Tandang, Denise on kalabaw.
"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by Bebo on 10-13-12 at 11:26 PM
Sure looks like it. That picture clearly shows 4 men on Tandang, and the shorts on the one of the left are Malcolm's. RC, Artis, Pete, and Michael are to his left (our right).

Only 6 Tandang shown...they're getting to sit a female. So this would suggest that the medivac takes place before the challenge. Otherwise, the teams would be even at 7, and everyone could compete.

The Kalabaw woman suffering in the preview is Dana.


"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by dabo on 10-14-12 at 00:07 AM
Promos today showed Dana as the sick Kalabaw. Challenge shots themselves have no Dana, Malcolm with Tandang and Denise with Kalabaw. So, the gathering shot press photo at challenge mudpit is not challenge, it is absorption of Matsing. Medical evacuation occurs after that at some point. A challenge is still held, so there must be a boot.
"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by crispy06 on 10-14-12 at 00:43 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-14-12 AT 00:46 AM (EST)

Now i'm interested to see who the boot is. We know kalabaw is split 3-3 already. With Dana gone that gives the men the advantage, but Denise could force a tie if she decides to go with the women. The promo talks about Jeff's identity being revealed, which I think Dawson has something to do with it. So Jeff could get some votes, but it's a toss-up for who the men will vote for.

On Tandang, its harder to predict how the votes will go. This tribe has so many different factions and ulterior motives. They may decide to vote out Malcolm for being an outsider or RC/Abi/Mike/Pete could all be in danger, funny enough the only person who is safe is Lisa. lol

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by dabo on 10-14-12 at 01:25 AM
Logically, if Matsing is absorbed no one on Kalibaw or Tandang knows anything at all about the Matsing HII. That being the case they should try to make their new tribe member play(waste) the (Matsing)HII while actually targetting one of their own.
"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by michel on 10-14-12 at 01:41 AM
Or convince the Matsing player that he/she is safe, tell him/her that so and so is going and then vote against the new member.
"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-14-12 at 01:59 PM
< With Dana gone that gives the men the advantage, but Denise could force a tie if
< she decides to go with the women.

CBS made a point last week of letting us hear how Denise didn't want to draw rocks, so I'm guessing that was to set this up and she's not going to want to force a tie.

Man, Tandang is going to have a killer challenge team with Malcolm now! And looks like a pretty epic challenge this week. Seems like they will be unbeatable.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by Flowerpower on 10-14-12 at 08:50 AM
Note the yellow buff around Malcolm's neck...

Only 6 Tandang shown...they're getting to sit a female. So this would suggest that the medivac takes place before the challenge. Otherwise, the teams would be even at 7, and everyone could compete.

As I see it there are several possible scenario's...

We have seen them all show up at supposedly a challenge area, where:
1. Dana is still there, no medivac yet
2. there is a reward challenge
3. no challenge run, and Matsing is divided. Malcolm to Tandang, Denise to Kalabaw
*I like dabo's original spec about winner gets first choice of who to pick....just saying!

We have an IC where it appears 6 are on each side competing:
1. This is a different challenge than the first one they did
2. That makes this an IC
3. 6 compete from each tribe
4. Implies that medivac has already occured, Dana gone

Has there ever been an IC run AFTER someone has been removed from the game?

One other thing I would like to comment on is the misdirection clue regarding Jeff, because, with Malcolm on the Tandang tribe, I think it gives them a leg up. So, I would favor Tandang to win the challenge now. Denise is good, but is she that good?

So, if Tandang is favored to win, and there is going to be a boot from Kalabaw, then that clue from the last promo becomes important to me... can the former baseball star keep his identity a secret?



If Dawson spills to Jeff that she knows who he is, and wants to use this to her advantage, then she could become the new target. Or, the plan will work and Jeff Kent will be the new target.

I think that this will be our boot story if there is indeed a boot after the medivac.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-14-12 at 02:10 PM
Agreed re Dawson/Jeff showdown. That was foreshadowed early on then dropped, but could come to a head now. Would be a dumb move on Dawson's part right now to threaten Jeff.

If Jeff/Penner are smart (and I think they are), they will greet Denise with open arms and get her on their side for the numbers. They'll also need her for female strength in the challenges because Tandang is really going to rock now with Malcolm.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by michel on 10-14-12 at 02:59 PM
But they wouldn't have to worry about men vs women if they target the outsider, Denise. If Penner/Kent are smart, that's what they'd do. You keep your team together. They can't trust Denise so her challenge strength means nothing.
"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by byoffer on 10-14-12 at 05:15 PM
Denise would be the outsider, but she would also be the tie-breaker between the males and females of Kalabaw. I think this puts her in a position of strength, unusual for a single merge person. Plus, as we have heard, everyone seems to love Denise.
"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-14-12 at 08:26 PM
<If Dawson spills to Jeff that she knows who he is, and wants to use this to her advantage, then she could become the new target.

Michel, I think you must have missed FloPo's post above with the discussion (based on promo voiceover, vidcaps, plus previous foreshadowing) about how Dawson could threaten Jeff re his identity and thus become the new target. My post was building on hers. Point being, tribe unity goes down the tubes if someone on your tribe is out to get you....or if you sense the women are against the men. If nothing else, proactively wooing Denise is a smart strategic play to make her think she is in an alliance and not a target/outsider. Also, Kent's said that the younger ones are dumb....I think he'll see the value in an older, wiser, stronger woman like Denise.

Based on edit alone, it sure seems like Dawson and the other quiet woman on Penner's tribe have no legs... but Denise does. I don't think she'd be getting jury talk and such a great edit if she gets voted out next episode.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by michel on 10-14-12 at 08:38 PM
I'm not talking about what will likely happen this season, I am talking about general strategy: Kalabaw and Tandang should be expecting a change in tribes, either in the form of a complete reshuffle or just Matsing dissolving into the two other tribes. Therefore, they should already be solidifying their team, making sure no one feels like an outsider. You want to avoid a Marty/Jane split as much as possible.

That means that, even before Denise and Malcolm step in, they should already have been talking about staying together, booting any new comer. If they had done that then Dawson wouldn't be targeting Kent so soon.

So, no, it isn't smart to rely on woooing Denise. First of all, you will never be able to trust what she will do at the merge because of her ties with Malcolm. Then, consider that one of Katie or Dawson will most likely still be there at the merge. Wooing Denise creates the possibility of having two outsiders at the merge while booting her means the tribe can stay strong at the merge.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-15-12 at 00:36 AM
Glad you agree that we're talking about two different things. General strategy suggests tribe unity, at least in theory and at least until the merge....or perhaps alliance unity is the more apt way to describe it.

But as Mark Burnett has often pointed out, to win at Survivor, you have to adapt to the specific game circumstances. And the "ideal" general strategy may not always work.

So yes, ideally Tandang would hang tough together and boot Denise. But if they lose this challenge and want to avoid another loss before the merge and/or if Dawson threatens to blow Jeff's cover and/or if Penner and Kent feel that Dawson is not as loyal as they would like (all possibilities given the promo vidcaps, which is the topic of discussion in this thread)...then the ideal general strategy of tribe unity may suddenly become a not-so-smart strategy. I'm giving Penner and Kent the benefit of the doubt that they'll know when to adapt.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by dabo on 10-15-12 at 01:12 AM
Dawson's best move, if she is in fear of being booted, is to tell Jeff she knows about his MLB background and will blow his game if she is booted, as a parting gift to the rest of the tribe. If she doesn't do that, she has no power over Jeff.

If she thinks she is safe she should, of course, hold onto that info, saving it to blow Jeff's game at some later point, preferably at Final Tribal if need be.

Jeff's best move in this situation is to tell the women that Jonathan is still the designated blindside, but because they suspect Jonathan has the HII it is best to keep him comfortable that he doesn't need to play the HII.

Jeff only needs to neutralize Dawson if he knows she knows, in which case he needs to adapt.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by michel on 10-15-12 at 07:49 AM
Yes, this thread is to analyze the vids but I wanted to refute your statement: "If Jeff/Penner are smart (and I think they are)". I think they're forgetting something vital if they keep Denise. Tribe unity is always a smart strategy. Neglecting it puts Kalabaw on a path to pagonging.
"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by dabo on 10-15-12 at 11:05 AM
Denise has her work cut out for her, but Kalabaw is already a divided tribe. She has two or three things in her favor.

1. The Matsing HII, if she has it and uses it wisely.

2. Jeff wants mature people around for mature conversations. Denise can be another member of the Kalabaw mature player association or replace Jonathan, who was the designated boot target from day one.

3. The medical evacuation plays right to her strong game, she can put on her therapist cap and do what she actually does for a living anyway, helping the whole tribe cope through the situation. By making herself valuable to the tribe she has a greater chance of shedding the outsider stigma and will be able to individually evaluate each member of her new tribe.

Her challenge performance is vital, though, as she cannot afford to be blamed for a challenge loss. Kalabaw has flipped from being able to sit out their weak links to having to field every member of the tribe, heat's been turned up.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by michel on 10-15-12 at 06:25 PM
Those things help Denise but how do they help Kalabaw? There are no reasons for Kalabaw to keep Denise. She is a free boot and you should never refuse a freebie.
"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by parathor on 10-16-12 at 01:09 PM
Boston Rob would boot Denise faster than you could say "Hey, you don't suppose she has an immunity idol, do you?"

If they woo her, then clearly they have learned nothing from watching this show... or else the division between men/women is so strong (because of Dawson outing Kent?) that they have to do this Plan B scenario. Actually, maybe I'll go with that idea... Penner is smart'ish.

Also --
Dawson should have said to Jeff Kent, quietly, off-to-the-side, "Hey, I really loved watching you play; you were my boyfriend's favorite player. Anyway, just wanted you to know that I'm a big fan, and think you're awesome." Then she'd still have leverage if she's booted or at the finale ("You booted ME? He's freakin' Jeff Kent!"), plus she'd make a friend for future use.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by Bebo on 10-14-12 at 08:16 PM
>But they wouldn't have to worry about men vs women if they target the outsider, Denise. If Penner/Kent are smart, that's what they'd do. You keep your team together. They can't trust Denise so her challenge strength means nothing.

I respectfully disagree. The last episode made the male/female split pretty obvious on Kalabaw. I could see the females seeing Denise as their opportunity to have a 4-3 advantage over the men. Jeff doesn't like the younger women on his tribe but could connect with an older woman, so I could see Penner/Jeff trying to get her on their side.

The medivac throws everything into a loop. If there is a male/female split, they're suddenly tied 3-3 again, and Denise does not want to pull rocks. She may seize an opportunity to gain Penner and Jeff's trust.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by michel on 10-14-12 at 08:55 PM
The male/female split is there as long as Kalabaw is intact. As is, they have to boot one of their own so naturally they make plans accordingly. Throw in an outsider though and it should all change.

Remember when Rotu kept Gabe instead of Morono? Or when Morono kept Rupert and Jenna over his Chappies? Or when the women wanted to save Chris and boot Eliza? Or when Galu booted Erik at the merge? Taking in an outsider over a tribe member shows that you can't be trusted and it's much too soon for that.

Seeing Dana getting medevaced should work to unite the tribe but if Penner and Kent don't use that, they are dumb.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by crispy06 on 10-14-12 at 09:21 PM
Penner's game isn't about tribe unity, he went looking for the idol as soon as he got to the island. He's gonna do whatever will further his game. At the merge, Penner is a wildcard. Kent on the other hand would be smart to keep his tribe together, we'll see how much game smarts he has in the next episode.
"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by michel on 10-15-12 at 07:40 AM
"Penner's game isn't about tribe unity|

And where did that get him...twice?! I'm telling you, if Kalabaw keeps Denise over Dawson or Katie, the tribe will collapse at the merge and get pagonged.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by crispy06 on 10-15-12 at 08:27 AM
Well since most of the people are invisible on Kalabaw except Penner and Jeff, i'm betting that is exactly what happens.
"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by michel on 10-15-12 at 06:21 PM
But I am telling you WHY it will happen!
"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by Karchita on 10-14-12 at 04:08 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-14-12 AT 04:17 PM (EST)

I am confused by this picture. Malcolm and Denise have their bags, so they are prepared to be absorbed and folks are speculating that this is just before a reward challenge, and that makes sense to me.

Dana is there, so it is clearly before she exits and it is clear that at least one challenge this week is played with teams of six and therefore takes place after she leaves.

But it looks like Dawson over on Kalabaw has brought their immunity idol, so that suggests this is an IC, not RC. I don't see Tandang's idol. It's possible one of the men in the back row is holding it out of sight. Or I suppose it's possible that Kalabaw accidentally brought their idol to a RC, especially since they have not had any RCs yet this season. But I think the producers would have corrected that before filming.

However, the most logical explanation is that this is before an IC, not a RC.



"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by dabo on 10-14-12 at 06:13 PM
I don't think there even has to be a challenge to explain this shot (though there could be one). Denise and Malcolm receive a message to pack their bags and come to the challenge area, the other two tribes simply receive messages to come to the challenge area, no explanation. Assuming there will be achallenge Kalabaw brings their II. The Tandang II may be there as well, we just don't see it.

Anyway, there could be a contest between Kalabaw and Tandang, winning tribe gets to pick who they want between Denise and Malcolm. The simpler course is that Denise and Malcolm drop their Matsing buffs and draw new buffs to determine which will go to Kalabaw and which to Tandang.

Since only Matsing brought their bags there is no contest to determine which tribe will be dissolved, Matsing is extinct.

Of course once Matsing has been absorbed they would have time to do a Reward Challenge, but there is no need for one and they would have to devote some episode time to the challenge. The more interesting story they would want to show (even before a medical evacuation, which production isn't expecting at this point) would be how tribal dynamics change with the shuffle.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by crispy06 on 10-14-12 at 07:26 PM
I think this is a RC but also a challenge to determine who gets to pick first from dissolved Matsing. I'm assuming Tandang wins since malcolm goes to their tribe. (I think both tribes would want him.)

The time in between RC and IC, Dana is medivaced. Tandang wins the immunity challenge since I believe Malcolm's quote "i got my sway back" has to do with finally winning an immunity.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-15-12 at 00:49 AM
Dabo and Crispy, I was thinking along the same lines. This week's clue/cheat tweet mentions "big challengeS" plural, which makes me think that there could be a separate RC (i.e., 1st shot of all 3 tribes lined up) and Crispy, I really like your idea that the winning RC tribe gets to pick first as their reward.

But the promo monkeys aren't always grammatically precise, so as Dabo points out, it could just be the reshuffle in that first shot and then a combined RC/IC at the end.

Does seem like a lot to cram into one episode if RC, medvac, then big IC. (Although could make a case if no TC/boot this week.)

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by Sheldor on 10-15-12 at 07:25 PM
FYI. That photo is captioned on the CBS Press Express site as:

"Tandang, Matsing and Kalabaw Tribe before the reward challenge during the fifth episode"

A Reward challenge win by Matsing helps explain how Matsing gets a new Hidden Immunity Idol clue as seen on Next Time on Survivor preview. It looked like Denise was holding the new clue.

Abi and Lisa are holding their bags. There is at least one bag behind RC on the ground in front of Artis. Looks like Pete might be holding a bag on his left too. However, Tandang does not have their Immunity Idol though possibly they gave it to Jeff already.

Malcolm and Denise both have bags at their feet.

Kalabaw does not appear to have brought their bags but they did bring their tribe's Immunity Idol. Maybe they were told to bring their Immunity Idol since they were 2nd place last week and there won't be 2 idols anymore.

In All Stars the third place tribe in the Reward Challenge was to be absorbed by the other 2 tribes. Maybe that's what they do here? However that conflicts with Matsing having a new Hidden Immunity Idol clue.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by dabo on 10-15-12 at 08:02 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-15-12 AT 11:01 PM (EST)

the reward challenge

Good work! So we have a strong indicator there are two challenges this episode, possibly a three-day cycle.

Reward challenge win by Matsing helps explain how Matsing gets a new Hidden Immunity Idol clue

Simpler explanation for the clue, since Russell walked off with the clue he found, another clue is simply planted for Denise and Malcolm to find when they get back to camp from TC.

Maybe they were told to bring their Immunity Idol since ... there won't be 2 idols anymore.

Well, maybe, but that would be an indicator that the dissolving of Matsing occurs on the spot, and Denise and Malcolm don't return to Matsing to hunt for the HII. And Jeff could just collect both IIs at IC, retiring one on the spot.

"RE: College Football Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-15-12 at 10:40 PM
Yay Sheldor! Agree this explains a lot. And for once the promo monkeys are correct.
"RE: Episode 5 Vidcaps Thread"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 10-14-12 at 09:03 AM
So, pretty much everything has been given to us this week from the vidcaps. We know that Dana is sick and will be medivaced. We also see Malcolm with the Yellow tribe and Denise with the Red tribe. Are we sure there will be a boot this week? Don't they usually give them a "bye" when a player is medivaced out? How do we know another player will be voted out?

"RE: Episode 5 Vidcaps Thread"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 10-14-12 at 02:04 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-14-12 AT 02:05 PM (EST)

Scarlett, I'm thinking there IS a boot primarily because of what you said -- they've given us everything else on a platter.

Has CBS announced the finale date yet? Just trying to figure out how many more episodes before Xmas and how they might parcel things out.

"RE: Episode 5 Vidcaps Thread"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 10-15-12 at 09:49 PM
Just saw a promo now... they're certainly not hiding that it's Dana that is ill. This promo had Dana hunched over while holding onto a tree, then medical coming in while she's flat on the ground, they're checking her stomach. Looks like she's got what Colton had last season.
"To Summarize"
Posted by dabo on 10-15-12 at 11:03 PM
LAST EDITED ON 10-15-12 AT 11:03 PM (EST)

So, thanks to the CBS promos and CBS cybermonkeys let's examine what we do and do not know.

Denise and Malcolm have a clue to the HII and search for it. We do not know if they find the HII or if so which of them keeps it.

There is a Reward Challenge, all three tribes go to it, all 14 players. We do not know if Matsing is dissolved before that challenge, after that challenge, as a result of that challenge, or if they get to sit out because they are the reward (or part of it). We do not know who wins RC.

We do know that Matsing is dissolved. We do know that Denise goes to Kalabaw, Malcolm to Tandang, per challenge shots, though those challenge shots are probably IC. At least one shot has turned up showing Denise with all six Kalabaw, she does spend time with Dana.

We do know that Dana gets sick and that Probst and Medical come to camp to deal with the situation. We do know that Medical says it isn't bad enough for them to pull her from the game, it is her decision whether to tough it out or quit. We do not know what she decides: We do not know whether she decides to quit, to tough it out, or whether in toughing it out she gets worse and Medical later changes their position, or she changes her mind and quits.

We do know there is a challenge in which Abi is an apparent sit-out, so there is an Immunity Challenge and there will be a boot. This suggests that Dana was medically evacuated from the game as the tribes would be at equal numbers otherwise, or if she is still in the game Probst allows sit-outs because she is too sick to run the challenge (or some variation thereof). We do not know which tribe wins IC.

We do not know who is voted out of the game. At least not per CBS reveals (clues and hints and misdirections are separate issues).

Did I leave anything out? Oh, we don't really know anything about the challenges, but perhaps there will be a challenge preview for one of them.

"RE: To Summarize"
Posted by Karchita on 10-16-12 at 11:02 AM
We do know that Medical says it isn't bad enough for them to pull her from the game, it is her decision whether to tough it out or quit.

I think Jeff's statement that we only take people out when it is life or death (paraphrasing from memory there) could mean either:

a) This isn't life or death, so it's Dana's choice to leave the game.

or

b) This is life or death and so Dana has to go.

I am leaning toward the latter. She sure looks bad.


"RE: To Summarize"
Posted by dabo on 10-16-12 at 02:47 PM
Additionally:

We do not know the nature of the Reward, whether it is food, stuff for camp, or so on.

We do not know if a Hidden Immunity Idol is played at Tribal.

"New Promo..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 10-16-12 at 07:52 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-16-12 AT 08:14 AM (EST)

Thanks Survivor Fever:















Transcript:

Announcer: Can the former baseball star keep his cover?

Jeff Kent: I'm walking on eggshells right now. If they ever put 2 and 2 together, I'm in trouble.

Look what they gave us...

There are all of the old and new Kalabaw! There is Denise, right in the back!

But, this does throw a wrench into our time line...so, here is my new time line:

1. RC - Matsing wins, gets reward and a clue, we see Malcolm and Denise with the clue at their camp....you don't think that clue could come with their tree mail, do you? It's a possibility?

2. Malcolm and Denise search their camp for the HII, will they find it...no

3. IC: Everyone is there. Before the start of the challenge, twist: Matsing is being dissolved, Malcolm to Tandang, Denise to Kalabaw

4. Tandang wins, Kalabaw will go to TC

5. All Kalabaw back to camp. Dana sick, then medivac'd out

6. Dawson let's Jeff Kent know that she has his number, thus the Jeff Kent is going misdirection

7. TC: Dawson out. With Tandang getting the strong Malcolm, I don't think that Denise will want to vote out the strong Jeff Kent, no matter who he is. And, if it does get out, than he is a good shield. Someone that becomes higher in the pecking order than you! Yes, I am leaning toward Dawson leaving.

"RE: New Promo..."
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 10-16-12 at 12:11 PM
I tend to agree with your scenario completely. I'm on the fence whether it's Dawson or Katie that would be the boot, as Katie has been more invisible and may not have a longer-term story like Dawson does ... but with Kent being the misdirection, it could be that her plot backfires, leaving Dawson up a Creek...
"RE: New Promo..."
Posted by crispy06 on 10-16-12 at 01:03 PM
isn't the general rule that if a promo show someone in danger, that usually means they are NOT the boot? I'm guessing Dawson exposes Jeff in the next episode trying to get him out but her plan backfires, putting her as the boot target. Thus leaving Denise the swing vote again.
"RE: New Promo..."
Posted by tribephyl on 10-16-12 at 01:31 PM

You will notice the immunity idol if you look by Jeff.
This shot is taken when Dana is visited by med-staff.
Therefore Matsing is absorbed before the IC and Dana leaves before the IC is played. Hence the sit-out at IC of a Tandang.

"RE: New Promo..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 10-16-12 at 02:40 PM
You will notice the immunity idol if you look by Jeff.
This shot is taken when Dana is visited by med-staff.
Therefore Matsing is absorbed before the IC and Dana leaves before the IC is played. Hence the sit-out at IC of a Tandang.

Good spec there, Tribe! Well done!

"RE: Episode 5 Vidcaps Thread"
Posted by Sheldor on 10-17-12 at 03:00 PM
Another NEW Promo!

http://www.cbspressexpress.com/cbs-entertainment/shows/survivor-philippines/video?watch=4zwo1pcq6j

"RE: Episode 5 Vidcaps Thread"
Posted by tribephyl on 10-17-12 at 05:42 PM
Doctor says she has about 12 hours of suffering before Medical will actually pull her from the game.
Seems Dehydration may be the biggest problem and "IF" she can keep herself hydrated for the next 12 hours, she may indeed be able to make it through. The choice now becomes Dana's to make.
Quit and get med attention now, or try to hydrate and med will check back on her in 12 hours.