The thread for tracking confessionals and whatever else confessional related anyone wants to add.

But first, woo-hoo, full opening credits! Savor them, we may not see any more for awhile. Hope the vidcappers sift through that wealth of material and find a few gems.

Anyway, order of introduction in the main titles:

TANDANG
Michael
Abi-Maria
Artis
RC
Lisa
Peter

KALABAW
Jonathan
Dana
Dawson
Carter
Katie
Jeff

MATSING
Russell
Angie
Zane
Denise
Roxanne
Malcolm

Notably, in confessionals Peter was Pete and Roxanne was Roxy.

• Week 1,dabo, 11:43 PM, 09-20-12
• Week 2,dabo, 11:49 AM, 09-27-12
• RE: S25 Confessionals Tracker,dabo, 01:04 AM, 10-05-12
  • RE: S25 Confessionals Tracker,SquidProQuo, 10:11 PM, 10-05-12
  • RE: S25 Confessionals Tracker,Sheldor, 01:29 AM, 10-06-12
    • RE: S25 Confessionals Tracker,dabo, 02:14 AM, 10-06-12
• Week 4,dabo, 01:23 AM, 10-12-12
• Week 5,dabo, 10:32 PM, 10-18-12
• Week 6,dabo, 09:23 PM, 10-25-12
  • RE: Week 6,SquidProQuo, 09:40 PM, 10-25-12
    • RE: Week 6,CTgirl, 09:47 PM, 10-25-12
      • RE: Week 6,parathor, 01:48 PM, 10-26-12
      • RE: Week 6,michel, 11:09 PM, 10-28-12
        • RE: Week 6,SpotTheDiffference, 11:56 PM, 10-28-12
          • RE: Week 6,michel, 07:52 AM, 10-29-12
            • RE: Week 6,PepeLePew13, 04:35 PM, 10-29-12
              • RE: Week 6,michel, 06:47 PM, 10-29-12
            • RE: Week 6,SpotTheDiffference, 11:06 PM, 10-29-12
              • RE: Week 6,michel, 04:53 PM, 10-30-12
      • RE: Week 6,dabo, 11:17 AM, 10-29-12
        • RE: Week 6,michel, 06:38 PM, 10-29-12
          • RE: Week 6,SquidProQuo, 00:06 AM, 10-30-12
          • RE: Week 6,dabo, 00:53 AM, 10-31-12
• RE: S25 Confessionals Tracker,dabo, 02:31 PM, 11-01-12
  • RE: S25 Confessionals Tracker,CTgirl, 09:50 PM, 11-01-12
    • RE: S25 Confessionals Tracker,dabo, 10:54 PM, 11-01-12
      • RE: S25 Confessionals Tracker,crispy06, 00:06 AM, 11-02-12
• Week 8,dabo, 00:54 AM, 11-09-12
• RE: S25 Confessionals Tracker,dabo, 06:04 PM, 11-15-12
  • RE: S25 Confessionals Tracker,mrtricky19, 08:04 PM, 11-15-12
    • RE: S25 Confessionals Tracker,dabo, 08:15 PM, 11-15-12
• Week 10,dabo, 02:54 AM, 11-24-12
  • RE: Week 10,tribephyl, 04:03 AM, 11-24-12
• Week 11,dabo, 10:52 PM, 11-29-12
• Week 12,dabo, 00:39 AM, 12-08-12
• Week 13,dabo, 08:53 PM, 12-13-12
  • RE: Week 13,Sheldor, 09:19 PM, 12-13-12

No trends as of yet, of course. There were six confessionals prior to the start of the game, significant of nothing as three of them were from the veteren players, two from the celebrity new players, and one from this week's boot. Michael jumps out way ahead in the count, will he hold onto his lead? Following him in a tie for second, Russell and Malcolm, with celebrity Jeff just behind, and Jonathan, celebrity Lisa, and RC right on his back. Artis and Carter got the invisible treatment this week, hope that doesn't last much longer.

episode       1 | total
Abi-Maria (T) 1 | 1
Angie (M)     2 | 2
Artis (T)     0 | 0
Carter (K)    0 | 0
Dana (K)      2 | 2
Dawson (K)    2 | 2
Denise (M)    2 | 2
Jeff (K)      4 | 4
Jonathan (K)  3 | 3
Katie (K)     1 | 1
Lisa (T)      3 | 3
Malcolm (M)   5 | 5
Michael (T)   7 | 7
Pete (T)      2 | 2
RC (T)        3 | 3
Roxy (M)      1 | 1
Russell (M)   5 | 5
eliminated
Zane (M)      7 | 7

episode       1  2 | total
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2 |  3
Angie (M)     2, 1 |  3
Artis (T)     0, 0 |  0
Carter (K)    0, 0 |  0
Dana (K)      2, 0 |  2
Dawson (K)    2, 0 |  2
Denise (M)    2, 3 |  5
Jeff (K)      4, 1 |  5
Jonathan (K)  3, 1 |  4
Katie (K)     1, 0 |  1
Lisa (T)      3, 2 |  5
Malcolm (M)   5, 4 |  9
Michael (T)   7, 0 |  7
Pete (T)      2, 0 |  2
RC (T)        3, 2 |  5
Russell (M)   5, 5 | 10
eliminated
Roxy (M)      1, 4 |  5
Zane (M)      7 | 7

And so the dilemma of three tribes, 17 characters, there's just not enough time in 40-some minutes. Artis and Carter continue to be invisible. Joining them for zeroes this week were Dana, Dawson, Katie, former count leader Michael, and Pete. On Tandang Abi-Maria and RC got attention for the clue story, Lisa got to go on about her lack of game, having no introvert role models for playing Survivor. On Kalabaw Jeff took a knee and vowed to wait, while Jonathan had a long segment to himself finding the hidden immunity idol. Everyone on dwindling Matsing got attention, having the boot story. Boot decoy Angie had one early confessional moment and was rarely heard from after, but the camera finds her a lot, she's there to be seen, her oobies were the talk of the day. Denise and Malcolm came off well as Roxy turned troublemaker to blow her own game. Russell is first to break double digits, Malcolm is right behind him, with Michael holding onto third.

Kudos to the prop department for hiding the hidden immunity idol in plain sight so once it is found it might be noticed by anyone that it was found. Or rather, "Hm, something's missing."

LAST EDITED ON 10-05-12 AT 01:15 AM (EST)

Oops, forgot to change the subject line to Week 3.

episode       1  2  3 | total
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2, 3 |  6
Artis (T)     0, 0, 1 |  1
Carter (K)    0, 0, 0 |  0
Dana (K)      2, 0, 1 |  3
Dawson (K)    2, 0, 0 |  2
Denise (M)    2, 3, 2 |  7
Jeff (K)      4, 1, 2 |  7
Jonathan (K)  3, 1, 1 |  5
Katie (K)     1, 0, 0 |  1
Lisa (T)      3, 2, 1 |  6
Malcolm (M)   5, 4, 3 | 12
Michael (T)   7, 0, 0 |  7
Pete (T)      2, 0, 2 |  4
RC (T)        3, 2, 1 |  6
Russell (M)   5, 5, 3 | 13
eliminated
Angie (M)     2, 1, 4 |  7
Roxy (M)      1, 4 |  5
Zane (M)      7 | 7

Well, this week Malcolm breaks double digits, and Artis comes out of invisible. Matsing continuing to Ulong to Tribal may be throwing things off a bit. Episode one confessional leader Michael got another disappointing zero this week, as did Purple Carter, Dawson, and Katie.

Not getting much trending yet, combination of vets, star power, and Matsing being the tribe that just cannot get their act together.

Putting this all in totem pole order --

Russell (M)
Malcolm (M)
Denise (M)
Jeff (K)
Michael (T)
Abi-Maria (T)
Lisa (T)
RC (T)
Jonathan (K)
Pete (T)
Dana (K)
Dawson (K)
Artis (T)
Katie (K)
Carter (K)

Hm?

Thanks Dabo for your weekly confessional analysis!

I'm playing catchup here on the season but having watched the first 3 episodes in a compressed timeframe, I'm somewhat perplexed by Scrupin's edit. He started out the 1st episode having what I considered to be the best edit of the 3 returnees and definitely showing long term potential...but then the last 2 episodes he's totally fallen off, which is backed up by your confessional count. I suppose we can chalk some of it up to there are 3 tribes and he's not on the losing tribe...but still, don't the returnees typically get more air time? Not hearing any game strategy, no follow-up on his potential connection with Lisa, etc.

Then this last episode we even had Artis coming out of invisibility to get his first confessional and take a swipe at Mike for taking diving in with the mask. At first I thought all his accidents were kinda funny/endearing, but now I wonder. Jeff talked about this in EW too as being a character flaw. Not sure it bodes well for Mike?

Funny how you can pretty much tell already by who's at the bottom of your list who won't have legs....i.e., Carter, Katie, etc. I wouldn't even know their names or faces....seems like they have no story line at all.

The big story lines, at least so far, seem to align with your confessional tracker: RC, Abi, Peter, Lisa and maybe Mike on that tribe...with a huge foreshadowing of an Abi/RC showdown....then on Penner's tribe it seems to be only about Jeff and Penner, with a foreshadowing of a showdown between them....and then Denise and Malcolm (my faves so far - very cool/smart duo). Re Russell: I felt from the 1st episode that he had the worst edit of the returnees and didn't learn from his mistakes and was going to be out early.

All the names below Pete on your list above seem to be "nobodies." And actually Pete was also on my nobody list until this last episode when he finally started talking and making moves. But I don't think we're supposed to like him.

This season seems to have a lot of potential. Some unique characters and a fair share of smart game players. Really loving Denise and Malcolm!

THANKS so much for tracking this Dabo!

Here's 2 ways to view the confessional counts that might illuminate a trend or just some interesting facts...

Sorted by Total
episode       1  2  3 | total
Russell (M)   5, 5, 3 | 13
Malcolm (M)   5, 4, 3 | 12
Denise (M)    2, 3, 2 |  7
Jeff (K)      4, 1, 2 |  7
Michael (T)   7, 0, 0 |  7
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2, 3 |  6
Lisa (T)      3, 2, 1 |  6
RC (T)        3, 2, 1 |  6
Jonathan (K)  3, 1, 1 |  5
Pete (T)      2, 0, 2 |  4
Dana (K)      2, 0, 1 |  3
Dawson (K)    2, 0, 0 |  2
Artis (T)     0, 0, 1 |  1
Katie (K)     1, 0, 0 |  1
Carter (K)    0, 0, 0 |  0
Sorted by Ep3..Ep1
episode       1  2  3 | total
Russell (M)   5, 5, 3 | 13
Malcolm (M)   5, 4, 3 | 12
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2, 3 |  6
Denise (M)    2, 3, 2 |  7
Jeff (K)      4, 1, 2 |  7
Pete (T)      2, 0, 2 |  4
Lisa (T)      3, 2, 1 |  6
RC (T)        3, 2, 1 |  6
Jonathan (K)  3, 1, 1 |  5
Dana (K)      2, 0, 1 |  3
Artis (T)     0, 0, 1 |  1
Michael (T)   7, 0, 0 |  7
Dawson (K)    2, 0, 0 |  2
Katie (K)     1, 0, 0 |  1
Carter (K)    0, 0, 0 |  0

• Definitely not a very well balanced season of confessionals. Russell and Malcolm dominating the story so far.
  
• NO surprise that the top 3 confessional counts are the 3 members from Matsing since they have been to 3 Tribal Councils.
  
• Kind of surprising that Mike Skupin had 7 confessionals in Episode 1 but 0 in the next 2 episodes.
  
• Those with less than 6 confessionals are probably not the winner
  
• 5 players with 2 silent episodes in a row (Artis, Michael, Dawson, Katie, Carter)
  

I have to admit, per Probst and pre-show adverts, Dawson is from another planet, I am disappointed that hasn't been shown, I lvoe ad siquitars. I am seriously considering promoting her to high this week's boot possibilities, a hidden boot.

If Matsing goes to TC again, well duh, Russell is toast.

LAST EDITED ON 10-12-12 AT 01:24 AM (EST)

episode       1  2  3  4 | total
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2, 3, 1 |  7
Artis (T)     0, 0, 1, 0 |  1
Carter (K)    0, 0, 0, 1 |  1
Dana (K)      2, 0, 1, 1 |  4
Dawson (K)    2, 0, 0, 1 |  3
Denise (M)    2, 3, 2, 4 | 11
Jeff (K)      4, 1, 2, 1 |  8
Jonathan (K)  3, 1, 1, 2 |  7
Katie (K)     1, 0, 0, 0 |  1
Lisa (T)      3, 2, 1, 2 |  8
Malcolm (M)   5, 4, 3, 6 | 18
Michael (T)   7, 0, 0, 0 |  7
Pete (T)      2, 0, 2, 3 |  7
RC (T)        3, 2, 1, 2 |  8
eliminated
Russell (M)   5, 5, 3, 4 | 17
Angie (M)     2, 1, 4 |  7
Roxy (M)      1, 4 |  5
Zane (M)      7 | 7

Denise breaks double digits, Malcolm jumps way out in the lead, and Carter finally gets a confessional. Zeroes this week, Artis is back in zeroland, and Michael and Katie continue to zero despite having been in episode one. Let's go to the totem pole where predictably Matsings own the top two spots. It would be more but there are only two of them now.

Malcolm (M) 18
Denise (M) 11
Jeff (K) 8
Lisa (T) 8
RC (T) 8
Abi-Maria (T) 7
Jonathan (K) 7
Michael (T) 7
Pete (T) 7
Dana (K) 4
Dawson (K) 3
Artis (T) 1
Carter (K) 1
Katie (K) 1

At Matsing the story is, well, Matsing sucks. Can they stage the greatest comeback ever? The bad news, there are only two of them now. The good news, Russell is no longer making any of their decisions.

Celebs Jeff and Lisa are ahead of vets Jonathan and Michael, with RC up there with the celebs and Abi-Maria and Pete up there with the vets. Tandang has a slight edge on Kalabaw.

The story at Kalabaw is that the tribe is now dividing along gender lines, mainly because Jeff and Jonathan are mature adults who can have mature adult conversations. Jeff is really going to lvoe having Denise to talk to if they get a chance to camp together.

At Tandang the story is now Pete's game, and he played Abi like a fiddle. Lisa and Michael are go along to get along players at this point, RC is struggling with the curves that have been thrown in her way.

Artis, Carter and Katie seem to be the cannon fodder.

LAST EDITED ON 10-18-12 AT 10:33 PM (EST)

episode       1  2  3  4  5       | total
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2, 3, 1, 0 (T) 0 |  7
Artis (T)     0, 0, 1, 0, 0 (T) 0 |  1
Carter (K)    0, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 0 |  1
Denise (M)    2, 3, 2, 4, 2 (K) 2 | 15
Jeff (K)      4, 1, 2, 1, 0 (K) 2 | 10
Jonathan (K)  3, 1, 1, 2, 0 (K) 4 | 11
Katie (K)     1, 0, 0, 0, 0 (K) 3 |  4
Lisa (T)      3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1 |  9
Malcolm (M)   5, 4, 3, 6, 3 (T) 2 | 23
Michael (T)   7, 0, 0, 0, 0 (T) 0 |  7
Pete (T)      2, 0, 2, 3, 0 (T) 1 |  8
RC (T)        3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1 |  9
eliminated
Dawson (K)    2, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 3 |  6
Dana (K)      2, 0, 1, 1, 0 (K) 1 |  5 medical evacuation
Russell (M)   5, 5, 3, 4 | 17
Angie (M)     2, 1, 4 |  7
Roxy (M)      1, 4 |  5
Zane (M)      7 | 7

And the madness continues. Matsing having been destroyed the story now shifts to the destruction of Kalabaw. We can now understand why we've seen and heard so little of Katie, she lost her entire alliance this episode and is now the only Kalabaw not in the alliance, her only hope now is to make it to a merge. Drama this week at Kalabaw, everyone but RC was happy at Tandang. Michael seems to be out of the loop and zeroed again this week (losing positions on the totem pole), along with zeroes Abi-Maria (thank you, editors), Artis, and Kalabaw Carter (remember him?). Kalabaws Jeff and Jonathan reach double digits. To the totem pole!

Malcolm (MT) 23
Denise (MK) 15
Jonathan (KK) 11
Jeff (KK) 10
Lisa (TT) 9
RC (TT) 9
Pete (TT) 8
Abi-Maria (TT) 7
Michael (TT) 7
Katie (KK) 4
Artis (TT) 1
Carter (KK) 1

episode       1  2  3  4  5        6 | total
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2, 3, 1, 0 (T) 0, 1 |  8
Artis (T)     0, 0, 1, 0, 0 (T) 0, 2 |  3
Carter (K)    0, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 0, 4 |  5
Denise (M)    2, 3, 2, 4, 2 (K) 2, 2 | 17
Jeff (K)      4, 1, 2, 1, 0 (K) 2, 4 | 14
Jonathan (K)  3, 1, 1, 2, 0 (K) 4, 5 | 16
Lisa (T)      3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1 | 10
Malcolm (M)   5, 4, 3, 6, 3 (T) 2, 0 | 23
Michael (T)   7, 0, 0, 0, 0 (T) 0, 0 |  7
Pete (T)      2, 0, 2, 3, 0 (T) 1, 1 |  9
RC (T)        3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1 | 10
eliminated
Katie (K)     1, 0, 0, 0, 0 (K) 3, 4 |  8
Dawson (K)    2, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 3 |  6
Dana (K)      2, 0, 1, 1, 0 (K) 1 |  5 medical evacuation
Russell (M)   5, 5, 3, 4 | 17
Angie (M)     2, 1, 4 |  7
Roxy (M)      1, 4 |  5
Zane (M)      7 | 7

Let's call this week "Rice Capades!" Michael's fifth week with no confessionals, and Malcolm's only zero so far. Katie got the boot story bump. Other bumps this week, Artis (with only 2 but that was more than any other Tandang this week), and Carter (4) -- both of them at the bottom of the confessionals totem pole. Lisa and RC reach double digits. Abi came back and jumped ahead of Michael in the count. From episode one count leader to right above the bottomfeeders, Michael's edit is just damned odd.

Malcolm (MT) 23
Denise (MK) 17
Jonathan (KK) 16
Jeff (KK) 14
Lisa (TT) 10
RC (TT) 10
Pete (TT) 9
Abi-Maria (TT) 8
Michael (TT) 7
Carter (KK) 5
Artis (TT) 3

Thanks Dabo -- appreciate your work on this each week!

Agree about Mike's edit. At least it appears from the promo that he gets a confessional this coming week. Maybe his story will pick up now with the merge.

Based on past confessional analysis, you gotta think that Carter and Artis are the next two boots based on their invisibility and then recent bumps.

Mike's edit is odd. All I can think is that he goes deep and his story is at end game but that many weeks of no confessionals doesn't bode well for him to win.

Carter, Artis, and Malcolm are vulnerable (Malcolm's zero could be the dip/spike for next week's boot).

I don't think Malcolm leaves, though. I'd say: pack your bags, Carter.

Mike's edit could be described as the Dog that Didn't Bark, now couldn't it? When did that expression apply to Survivor, I wonder?

HvV Sandra? Samoa Natalie? IF Michael wins this season, which I highly doubt he does, then those are probably the two winner edits that his is the most similar with.

In season 2, a poster named Tapewatcher figured that Tina would win because she was the "Dog that Didn't Bark": The only person without a confessional in episode 1. It would be quite a wink at Tina's win to do something similar in reverse for Mike: Show him in episode 1 but hide him the rest of the premerge.

I still have that Tapewatcher link bookmarked after all those years!

http://survivorsucks.yuku.com/topic/10077/The-REAL-Ep1-spoiler-the-dog-that-DIDN-T-bark?page=1#.UI7ng4bpXKY

What's interesting to me is that Skupin is from the same season that Tina won with that dog-didn't-bark first episode edit, and the editors might think it's cute or something to do the opposite here. Tina's edit really didn't start to blossom until after the merge so that's when I expect we'll start to see more of Skupin. If Skupin finally gets edited in a positive way with confessionals almost immediately after the merge, then I'll start to consider him as a possibility for the win -- until then, no.

Thanks for the link. It had been a while since I actually had read this.

Tapewatcher notes something else that is fascinating but that I had forgotten: Tina's association with fire. (Fire is life he reminds us and he says Tina focused on the flame and guided it during the challenge until they won.)
Well, Mike also has an association with Fire! And note that, like all the other Tandangs, he has yet to receive his torch. Mike has stayed away from fire which, for him, is good!

Man! I'll have a hard time getting off this track if Mike doesn't win!!!!!!!

Isn't that a bit of a stretch? Not very many people, even long-time Survivor viewers, will remember that Tina didn't get a confessional at the first episode, and I don't think the editors will go to great lengths just to give a throwback to S2.

I would think that Mike is not getting any confessionals because we're meant to hear about how *bad* of a player he is, without us actually seeing what he's done wrong. Provide solely second-hand evidence, so to speak.

If Mike wins (again, I don't think he does), then this would be, IMO, a Sandra-esque instead of an anti-Tina edit. Focus on the villains while they talk smack about the winner, and watch their inevitable destruction.

It certainly is a stretch, I don't deny that. I also know that editors like to have some fun and they could have thought of that angle without even considering if viewers would get it or not. Sort of an inside joke.

Been pondering the Mike edit a bit, and I think it has to do with story arcs. Michel may be onto something with the dog that isn't barking observation, though they haven't done anything that cute with the edit since Africa when Ethan was more or less the prodigal messiah. They are more into story arcs.

Main story arc #1 was the four-episode obliteration of Matsing, Angie never got one single cookie. During this time the developing stories on the other two tribes mirrored each other. Kalabaw unified early around Jeff Kent and the anti returning player sentiment, but Jonathan got his game in gear and things shifted, the tribe eventually became divided by gender. Tandang saw what could have been a solid alliance forming quickly on day 1 with Mike looking strong with his go with the tribe strategy, Lisa playing badly and isolating herself. But then it fractured: Abi and RC had a falling out, Lisa continued to struggle, and then Pete began playing games to reshuffle alliances, push Abi and RC further apart, and started aiming at Mike by bringing Lisa into the fold. Mike during all this was quietly sticking to his game plan and presented as accident prone.

Main story arc #2 may now be complete, if so it was the obliteration of the Kalabaw female alliance. Once Matsing was no more and Denise and Malcolm sent to their respective new tribes their individual stories were about integrating into their new tribes. Dana's medical evactuation sealed the fate of the female alliance, Dawson only served herself up as next to go by playing cat and mouse with Jeff. Katie had no chance, though toward the end of this we get Carter presented as both a follower and suffering, one day after a reward feast and he's weak from lack of rice. At Tandang, meanwhile, the introduction of Malcolm furthered the divides that Pete was playing, more reshuffling, and Pete has now fixated on eliminating Mike, though his resentment of Mike is presented as somewhat childish, he's tired of listening to the guy's stories. Mike is continuing with his game plan blind to the blame game being set up, on friendly terms with everyone as far as he knows. Lisa's lay low and fan the flames game is working out very well, between Pete and Artis she doesn't even need to fan the flames. We are finally shown Artis who has his own hunger pangs fanning his own flames, blaming Mike for the rice capade that wasn't even Mike's idea (it was Jonathan's) and everyone agreed to it. Mike is finally waking up at the end of this two episode arc.

We are poised for story arc #3, A New Tribe. Carter and Artis are most likely to take a food bribe.

LAST EDITED ON 10-29-12 AT 06:48 PM (EST)

Ha! But Mike's dog that didn't bark fits in the story of the veterans:

1- Russell: He tried to play the leader and he flamed out quickly.
2- Penner: He played as the lone wolf and he never quite fit in Kalabaw.
3- Mike: He played the quiet follower while the game was tribal.

The 2nd story arc I see is the "Killing of the Young Ones". Outside of Russell, who was acting like a child anyway, all the losers have been young: Zane, Roxy, Angie, Dawson and Katie were all in their 20s and acted as kids. It really doesn't bode well for Carter, Peter, Abi and even Artis, the "teenage girl". Note that Malcolm and RC, also in their 20s, are portrayed as much more mature. RC's confessionals with her business suit reinforce that impression.

I expect Act 3 to be the Domination of the Elders where Mike will play a major role.

Clearly all the talk about not wanting a veteran to win must have some payoff in the end. And let's not forget that Mike clearly had the best 1st episode of the 3 veterans. He's certainly adapted his game. Even in the last episode when he didn't have a confessional and sat out of the challenge, the editors spotlighted his coaching of Lisa in the IC, which helped his tribe to win.

I've seen others mention the Tina/dog that didn't bark comparison. And some see parallels between Malcolm/Denise and Colby/Tina, ha. Funny how Tina and Australia keep coming up this season....hasn't Probst said it was one of his favorite seasons.

P.S. Pepe, thanks for the link! I was a lurker back then but still remember Tapewatcher....great blast from the past!

Thing is, whether the dog theory has any validity, I don't think they would have done this simply to be cute. There's a catalyst, and I'm fairly certain Tandang never having gone to TC up to this point is part of it. And somehow Michael's confessionals post episode one weren't vital to the story arcs they were presenting. Beyond that, can't figure it out.

Was he so unaware of the dramas playing out in Tandang that including his confessionals would have made him seem delusional or foolish or something? Was he attuned to the dramas and taking everything in stride, per his game plan, but showing that would make him seem too much a genius of the game? Glass half full or half empty?

In any event, the Mystery Michael edit, I do think he will emerge now once the tribes merge, butterfly from the caccoon, and be a big part of the story arcs going forward.

LAST EDITED ON 11-01-12 AT 02:32 PM (EST)

Week 7

episode       1  2  3  4  5        6  7       | total
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2, 3, 1, 0 (T) 0, 1, 0 (D) 0 |  8
Artis (T)     0, 0, 1, 0, 0 (T) 0, 2, 0 (D) 1 |  4
Carter (K)    0, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 0, 4, 0 (D) 0 |  5
Denise (M)    2, 3, 2, 4, 2 (K) 2, 2, 2 (D) 0 | 19
Jeff (K)      4, 1, 2, 1, 0 (K) 2, 4, 1 (D) 4 | 19
Jonathan (K)  3, 1, 1, 2, 0 (K) 4, 5, 2 (D) 3 | 21
Lisa (T)      3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 1 (D) 3 | 14
Malcolm (M)   5, 4, 3, 6, 3 (T) 2, 0, 1 (D) 2 | 26
Michael (T)   7, 0, 0, 0, 0 (T) 0, 0, 1 (D) 2 | 10
Pete (T)      2, 0, 2, 3, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 1 | 10
jury
RC (T)        3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 2 | 12
eliminated
Katie (K)     1, 0, 0, 0, 0 (K) 3, 4 |  8
Dawson (K)    2, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 3 |  6
Dana (K)      2, 0, 1, 1, 0 (K) 1 |  5 medical evacuation
Russell (M)   5, 5, 3, 4 | 17
Angie (M)     2, 1, 4 |  7
Roxy (M)      1, 4 |  5
Zane (M)      7 | 7

And the Dangrayne story commences with Tandang fracturing, and Kalabaw fracturing. Malcolm and Denise reunited and putting together a power alliance while letting Pete believe it's his game. Michael and Pete reach double digits, Abi and Carter zero for the week. Jeff ties with Denise at third on the totem pole, Jonathan pulls himself into second place.

Malcolm (MTD) 26
Jonathan (KKD) 21
Denise (MKD) 19
Jeff (KKD) 19
Lisa (TTD) 14
Michael (TTD) 10
Pete (TTD) 10
Abi-Maria (TTD) 8
Carter (KKD) 5
Artis (TTD) 4

Possibly a pre-boot spike for Jeff Kent. His story is over. He won't outlast Penner!

LAST EDITED ON 11-01-12 AT 10:55 PM (EST)

Jeff and Jonathan both had high counts for the last two episodes, with Lisa emerging this week as well. You may be right, the two former Kalabaw may both take you or me stands this week. But if Jonathan wins II Jeff has no problem switching targets to Michael (who spiked up), which might prompt another favorite week Pete tweet.

Episode spike for Kent and Penner. I feel overall Kent was more visible in the merge episode and he DID NOT get his way. Spells bad news for him, I think he goes next.

LAST EDITED ON 11-09-12 AT 01:00 AM (EST)

episode       1  2  3  4  5        6  7        8 | total
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2, 3, 1, 0 (T) 0, 1, 0 (D) 0, 0 |  8
Artis (T)     0, 0, 1, 0, 0 (T) 0, 2, 0 (D) 1, 1 |  5
Carter (K)    0, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 0, 4, 0 (D) 0, 0 |  5
Denise (M)    2, 3, 2, 4, 2 (K) 2, 2, 2 (D) 0, 1 | 20
Jonathan (K)  3, 1, 1, 2, 0 (K) 4, 5, 2 (D) 3, 5 | 26
Lisa (T)      3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 1 (D) 3, 4 | 18
Malcolm (M)   5, 4, 3, 6, 3 (T) 2, 0, 1 (D) 2, 4 | 30
Michael (T)   7, 0, 0, 0, 0 (T) 0, 0, 1 (D) 2, 1 | 11
Pete (T)      2, 0, 2, 3, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 1, 4 | 14
jury
Jeff (K)      4, 1, 2, 1, 0 (K) 2, 4, 1 (D) 4, 4 | 23
RC (T)        3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 2 | 12
eliminated
Katie (K)     1, 0, 0, 0, 0 (K) 3, 4 |  8
Dawson (K)    2, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 3 |  6
Dana (K)      2, 0, 1, 1, 0 (K) 1 |  5 medical evacuation
Russell (M)   5, 5, 3, 4 | 17
Angie (M)     2, 1, 4 |  7
Roxy (M)      1, 4 |  5
Zane (M)      7 | 7

Well, it was a big week with with several stories converging. Abi and Carter zeroed. While Artis, Denise and Michael had only one confessional each, everyone else was bringing it on. Jonathan is now in solid second on the totem pole. Lisa is near to overtaking Denise for third. Shame to see Denise dropping off like that, but she has a fairly consistant run going since episode 5 sent her to Kalabaw. Pete is the big bump. Mini bump for Malcolm.

Malcolm (MTD) 30
Jonathan (KKD) 26
Denise (MKD) 20
Lisa (TTD) 18
Pete (TTD) 14
Michael (TTD) 11
Abi-Maria (TTD) 8
Artis (TTD) 5
Carter (KKD) 5

LAST EDITED ON 11-15-12 AT 11:22 PM (EST)

oops, Week 9

episode       1  2  3  4  5        6  7        8  9 | total
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2, 3, 1, 0 (T) 0, 1, 0 (D) 0, 0, 1 |  9
Carter (K)    0, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 0, 4, 0 (D) 0, 0, 1 |  6
Denise (M)    2, 3, 2, 4, 2 (K) 2, 2, 2 (D) 0, 1, 1 | 21
Jonathan (K)  3, 1, 1, 2, 0 (K) 4, 5, 2 (D) 3, 5, 6 | 32
Lisa (T)      3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 1 (D) 3, 4, 5 | 23
Malcolm (M)   5, 4, 3, 6, 3 (T) 2, 0, 1 (D) 2, 4, 1 | 31
Michael (T)   7, 0, 0, 0, 0 (T) 0, 0, 1 (D) 2, 1, 2 | 13
Pete (T)      2, 0, 2, 3, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 1, 4, 1 | 15
jury
Artis (T)     0, 0, 1, 0, 0 (T) 0, 2, 0 (D) 1, 1, 2 |  7
Jeff (K)      4, 1, 2, 1, 0 (K) 2, 4, 1 (D) 4, 4 | 23
RC (T)        3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 2 | 12
eliminated
Katie (K)     1, 0, 0, 0, 0 (K) 3, 4 |  8
Dawson (K)    2, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 3 |  6
Dana (K)      2, 0, 1, 1, 0 (K) 1 |  5 medical evacuation
Russell (M)   5, 5, 3, 4 | 17
Angie (M)     2, 1, 4 |  7
Roxy (M)      1, 4 |  5
Zane (M)      7 | 7

Great episode this week! Jonathan and Lisa got the lion's share of attention, with Jonathan grabbing top spot on the totem pole and Lisa passing Denise to secure third place. No one zeroed. Artis got a mini-bump of attention for being boot of the week. Abi and Carter (both bottomfeeders in single digits) poked their heads back up, she with some clueless idiocy, he with a reward observation. Malcolm had a life altering reward experience. Pete spiked up last week and dropped back down this week. But mainly the story this week was Jonathan's dead on gameplay and Lisa's dilemma of the week. And Michael is finally playing again.

Jonathan (KKD) 32
Malcolm (MTD) 31
Lisa (TTD) 23
Denise (MKD) 21
Pete (TTD) 15
Michael (TTD) 13
Abi-Maria (TTD) 9
Carter (KKD) 6

If Penner doesn't win this game I'll be shocked! The editing would have thrown us all for a loop

Right now I'd say the winner is in the top four of the totem pole.

The two on the bottom are definately out of the running. Mike and Pete are in a position where they could conceivably improve their chances; well, one of them could, no way both of them can simultaneously.

episode       1  2  3  4  5        6  7        8  9 10 | total
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2, 3, 1, 0 (T) 0, 1, 0 (D) 0, 0, 1, 3 | 12
Carter (K)    0, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 0, 4, 0 (D) 0, 0, 1, 0 |  6
Denise (M)    2, 3, 2, 4, 2 (K) 2, 2, 2 (D) 0, 1, 1, 2 | 23
Jonathan (K)  3, 1, 1, 2, 0 (K) 4, 5, 2 (D) 3, 5, 6, 2 | 34
Lisa (T)      3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 1 (D) 3, 4, 5, 2 | 25
Malcolm (M)   5, 4, 3, 6, 3 (T) 2, 0, 1 (D) 2, 4, 1, 5 | 36
Michael (T)   7, 0, 0, 0, 0 (T) 0, 0, 1 (D) 2, 1, 2, 5 | 18
jury
Pete (T)      2, 0, 2, 3, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 1, 4, 1, 3 | 18
Artis (T)     0, 0, 1, 0, 0 (T) 0, 2, 0 (D) 1, 1, 2 |  7
Jeff (K)      4, 1, 2, 1, 0 (K) 2, 4, 1 (D) 4, 4 | 23
RC (T)        3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 2 | 12
eliminated
Katie (K)     1, 0, 0, 0, 0 (K) 3, 4 |  8
Dawson (K)    2, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 3 |  6
Dana (K)      2, 0, 1, 1, 0 (K) 1 |  5 medical evacuation
Russell (M)   5, 5, 3, 4 | 17
Angie (M)     2, 1, 4 |  7
Roxy (M)      1, 4 |  5
Zane (M)      7 | 7

Malcolm and Michael got big bumps this week as they got their endgames in place. Jonathan's story seems to have peaked and he rejoins the pack with Denise and Lisa as ongoing stories, losing his brief top spot on the totem pole. Abi and boot Pete got scramble attention, with Abi finally breaking double digits. Carter is back in zeroland, which is alarming for someone who got both reward and Individual Immunity; he is now sole remaining player in single digit category.

Malcolm (MTD) 36
Jonathan (KKD) 34
Lisa (TTD) 25
Denise (MKD) 23
Michael (TTD) 18
Abi-Maria (TTD) 12
Carter (KKD) 6

We're in the area where dips in confessionals are somewhat definitive pre-boot signs.
So... I'd say either Lisa or Jonathan are most in trouble next ep.

...continuing further...
Abi's story is just getting into full swing and Lisa's story is heavily connected to Abi's story, so both of them are safe...for now.
Looks like a straight up Jonathan boot.
Well at least to me it does.
.
.
.
For now.

LAST EDITED ON 11-29-12 AT 11:11 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 11-29-12 AT 10:53 PM (EST)

episode       1  2  3  4  5        6  7        8  9 10 11 | total
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2, 3, 1, 0 (T) 0, 1, 0 (D) 0, 0, 1, 3, 4 | 16
Carter (K)    0, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 0, 4, 0 (D) 0, 0, 1, 0, 0 |  6
Denise (M)    2, 3, 2, 4, 2 (K) 2, 2, 2 (D) 0, 1, 1, 2, 1 | 24
Lisa (T)      3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 1 (D) 3, 4, 5, 2, 2 | 27
Malcolm (M)   5, 4, 3, 6, 3 (T) 2, 0, 1 (D) 2, 4, 1, 5, 3 | 39
Michael (T)   7, 0, 0, 0, 0 (T) 0, 0, 1 (D) 2, 1, 2, 5, 1 | 19
jury
Jonathan (K)  3, 1, 1, 2, 0 (K) 4, 5, 2 (D) 3, 5, 6, 2, 2 | 36
Pete (T)      2, 0, 2, 3, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 1, 4, 1, 3 | 18
Artis (T)     0, 0, 1, 0, 0 (T) 0, 2, 0 (D) 1, 1, 2 |  7
Jeff (K)      4, 1, 2, 1, 0 (K) 2, 4, 1 (D) 4, 4 | 23
RC (T)        3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 2 | 12
eliminated
Katie (K)     1, 0, 0, 0, 0 (K) 3, 4 |  8
Dawson (K)    2, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 3 |  6
Dana (K)      2, 0, 1, 1, 0 (K) 1 |  5 medical evacuation
Russell (M)   5, 5, 3, 4 | 17
Angie (M)     2, 1, 4 |  7
Roxy (M)      1, 4 |  5
Zane (M)      7 | 7

Well, Denise got the first confessional this week (her only one), while Michael got the final confessional this week (his only one, to make it seem the boot vote could go either way). Abi jumped up with the most confessionals of the week, with Malcolm just behind her. Carter back in zeroville again despite being the tribal benefactor at auction. Abi's bump sets up the story for the next episode or two, while Carter seems to be just waiting his turn. Lisa continues her emotional journey. Frankly, it was interesting for awhile, but lately I've been finding the Lisa character a bit one-dimensional.

Malcolm (MTD) 39
Lisa (TTD) 27
Denise (MKD) 24
Michael (TTD) 19
Abi-Maria (TTD) 16
Carter (KKD) 6

episode       1  2  3  4  5        6  7        8  9 10 11 12 | total
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2, 3, 1, 0 (T) 0, 1, 0 (D) 0, 0, 1, 3, 4, 2 | 18
Denise (M)    2, 3, 2, 4, 2 (K) 2, 2, 2 (D) 0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1 | 25
Lisa (T)      3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 1 (D) 3, 4, 5, 2, 2, 5 | 32
Malcolm (M)   5, 4, 3, 6, 3 (T) 2, 0, 1 (D) 2, 4, 1, 5, 3, 6 | 45
Michael (T)   7, 0, 0, 0, 0 (T) 0, 0, 1 (D) 2, 1, 2, 5, 1, 1 | 20
loved ones (episode 12)
Bianca (Carter's mom) 0
Brad (Denise's husband) 0
Justice (Lisa's brother) 1
Michael II (Michael's son) 0
Miles (Malcolm's brother) 0
Vera (Abi-Maria's mom) 0
jury
Carter (K)    0, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 0, 4, 0 (D) 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2 |  8
Jonathan (K)  3, 1, 1, 2, 0 (K) 4, 5, 2 (D) 3, 5, 6, 2, 2 | 36
Pete (T)      2, 0, 2, 3, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 1, 4, 1, 3 | 18
Artis (T)     0, 0, 1, 0, 0 (T) 0, 2, 0 (D) 1, 1, 2 |  7
Jeff (K)      4, 1, 2, 1, 0 (K) 2, 4, 1 (D) 4, 4 | 23
RC (T)        3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 2 | 12
eliminated
Katie (K)     1, 0, 0, 0, 0 (K) 3, 4 |  8
Dawson (K)    2, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 3 |  6
Dana (K)      2, 0, 1, 1, 0 (K) 1 |  5 medical evacuation
Russell (M)   5, 5, 3, 4 | 17
Angie (M)     2, 1, 4 |  7
Roxy (M)      1, 4 |  5
Zane (M)      7 | 7

Interesting episode, though not much to go on. Malcolm and Lisa jumped way out ahead this week, while Denise, Michael and Abi maintained. Poor Carter, seemed like a good kid, loved his mom; gave it a try but once he'd lost all his leaders he had no one to follow, his game was done. Good-bye last of the original Kalibaw.

Malcolm (MTD) 45
Lisa (TTD) 32
Denise (MKD) 25
Michael (TTD) 20
Abi-Maria (TTD) 18

episode       1  2  3  4  5        6  7        8  9 10 11 12 13 | total
Denise (M)    2, 3, 2, 4, 2 (K) 2, 2, 2 (D) 0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 3 | 28
Lisa (T)      3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 1 (D) 3, 4, 5, 2, 2, 5, 5 | 37
Malcolm (M)   5, 4, 3, 6, 3 (T) 2, 0, 1 (D) 2, 4, 1, 5, 3, 6, 6 | 51
Michael (T)   7, 0, 0, 0, 0 (T) 0, 0, 1 (D) 2, 1, 2, 5, 1, 1, 4 | 24
loved ones (episode 12)
Bianca (Carter's mom) 0
Brad (Denise's husband) 0
Justice (Lisa's brother) 1
Michael II (Michael's son) 0
Miles (Malcolm's brother) 0
Vera (Abi-Maria's mom) 0
jury
Abi-Maria (T) 1, 2, 3, 1, 0 (T) 0, 1, 0 (D) 0, 0, 1, 3, 4, 2, 5 | 23
Carter (K)    0, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 0, 4, 0 (D) 0, 0, 1, 0, 0, 2 |  8
Jonathan (K)  3, 1, 1, 2, 0 (K) 4, 5, 2 (D) 3, 5, 6, 2, 2 | 36
Pete (T)      2, 0, 2, 3, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 1, 4, 1, 3 | 18
Artis (T)     0, 0, 1, 0, 0 (T) 0, 2, 0 (D) 1, 1, 2 |  7
Jeff (K)      4, 1, 2, 1, 0 (K) 2, 4, 1 (D) 4, 4 | 23
RC (T)        3, 2, 1, 2, 0 (T) 1, 1, 0 (D) 2 | 12
eliminated
Katie (K)     1, 0, 0, 0, 0 (K) 3, 4 |  8
Dawson (K)    2, 0, 0, 1, 0 (K) 3 |  6
Dana (K)      2, 0, 1, 1, 0 (K) 1 |  5 medical evacuation
Russell (M)   5, 5, 3, 4 | 17
Angie (M)     2, 1, 4 |  7
Roxy (M)      1, 4 |  5
Zane (M)      7 | 7

Malcolm (MTD) 51
Lisa (TTD) 37
Denise (MKD) 28
Michael (TTD) 24

Malcolm passes *50*?!?! 51 is about the same as COACH(53)!!! had in One World and Malcolm received *12* confessionals (6+6) in the last 2 Episodes! That's dominating the screen time!

Lisa jumps up to *37* which is MORE than Ozzy (33) had in One World with *10* confessionals (5+5) in the last 2 Episodes!

It has been pretty much the Malcolm & Lisa show!

Denise received 1+3 to hit 28 and
Michael received 1+4 to hit 24

Those type of totals near the end are more typical of a winner than 10 or 12 in the last 2 episodes...

Denise(28) and Michael(24) totals are more than but similar to Sophie(18) and Albert(17) going into the Finale.

Malcolm is definitely the STAR of Survivor Philippines overshadowing both Celebrities and Returning Players!