LAST EDITED ON 05-11-12 AT 12:47 PM (EST)

ADVISORY: Vote threads are open to all who wish to participate and cast their votes, spoilers and non-spoilers alike. The posts initiating these threads contain no spoiler information other than perhaps referencing what has been revealed in TV promos for the upcoming episode. Non-spoilers, be advised that spoilers may include information in their posts here which you may not wish to read. Spoilers, please do not include spoiler information for future episodes, stick to the episode in question.

The DAWS

Tikiano (black) Tribe

AR Alicia Ross (Salani, Manono2)
CM Chelsea Meissner (Salani, Salani2)
CC Christina Cha (Salani, Manono2)
KS Kim Spradin (Salani, Salani2)
ST Sabrina Thompson (Salani, Salani2)

the jury
ep 7. Jonas Otsuji (Manono, Manono2, Tikiano)
ep 8. Michael Jefferson (Manono, Salani2, Tikiano)
ep 9. Jay Byers (Manono, Salani2, Tikiano)
ep 10. Leif Manson (Manono, Manono2, Tikiano)
ep 11. Troy "Troyzan" Robertson (Manono, Salani2, Tikiana)
ep 12. Kat Edorsson (Salani, Salani2, Tikiano)
ep 13. Greg "Tarzan" Smith (Manono, Manono2, Tikiano)

eliminated
ep 1. Kourtney Moon (Salani) medical evacuation
ep 2. Nina Acosta (Salani)
ep 3. Matt Quinlan (Manono)
ep 4. Bill Posley (Manono)
ep 5. Monica Culpepper (Salani, Manono2)
ep 6. Colton Cumble (Manono, Manono2) medical evacuation

The Rules

This week the rules are different. This week you want to vote for the finish order of the five remaining players. Using the codes in the above list of players, just erase where it says "Re: SurvivorBlowsTribe, Time to Vote..." and replace with your votes. Your votes will take this form

5th/4th/3rd/2nd/1st winner!

So, for example, if you think Alicia will finish in 5th place (be voted out), Chelsea will finish in 4th place (be voted out), Christina will finish in 3rd place (receive the least votes from the jury), Kim will finish in 2nd place (receive more votes than Christina), and Sabrina will win, your vote would read

AR/CM/CC/KS/ST winner!

All the standard rules apply, of course, like if you want to change your vote reply to your own vote post. And mostly, HAVE FUN!

This has been a really great fun season, especially after those two dogs with RI. Thanks to everyone, spoilers and bashers and fanatics, for participating and helping increase the fun. You're the tops.

• CM / ST / CC / AR / KS,tribephyl, 03:02 AM, 05-11-12
• CC/CM/ST/AR/KM,Estee, 07:06 AM, 05-11-12
• AR/CC/ST/CM/KS,Arnold_Lorax, 08:02 AM, 05-11-12
• CC/ST/AR/CM/KS wins!,Belle Book, 09:40 AM, 05-11-12
  • Changed to CM/ST/CC/AR/KS win,Belle Book, 04:22 PM, 05-11-12
• CM / ST / CC / AR / KS,byoffer, 09:54 AM, 05-11-12
• CC / ST / AR / KS & CM,parathor, 10:10 AM, 05-11-12
• CM/ST/AR/CC/KS,beaglemaster, 11:12 AM, 05-11-12
  • change vote to ST/CC/AR/CM/KS,beaglemaster, 07:35 PM, 05-13-12
• CM/ST/CC/AR/KS,jasonkola, 01:03 PM, 05-11-12
• AC/ST/KS/CC/CM,bertygal13, 01:30 PM, 05-11-12
• ST/CM/CC/AR/KS,emydi, 03:19 PM, 05-11-12
• ST / CC / AR / KS / CM,Sandtiger33, 03:35 PM, 05-11-12
• ST/AR/CC/KS/CM,SOAR64, 03:39 PM, 05-11-12
• AR/CC/ST/CM/KIM,Flowerpower, 07:01 AM, 05-12-12
• AR/CC/ST/CM/KS,MyDogMya, 02:02 PM, 05-12-12
• CC / AR / CM / ST / KS,Murphy3126, 03:47 PM, 05-12-12
• ??/??/??/??/KS,michel, 04:21 PM, 05-12-12
• ST/CM/CC/AR/KS,Round Robin, 00:19 AM, 05-13-12
• ST/AR/CC/CM/KS,dabo, 01:41 AM, 05-13-12
• Vote Tally #1,dabo, 02:15 AM, 05-13-12
• ST/CC/AR/CM/KS,OllieKat, 12:29 PM, 05-13-12
• AR/CC/CM/ST/KS,Blind Freddy, 02:21 PM, 05-13-12
• ST/AR/CC/CM/KS,Zeek, 03:12 PM, 05-13-12
• AR/CC/KS/CM/ST,Loree, 03:48 PM, 05-13-12
• CM/ST/CC/AR/KS,Corvis, 05:07 PM, 05-13-12
• Vote Tally #2,dabo, 05:28 PM, 05-13-12
  • RE: Vote Tally #2,Blind Freddy, 07:04 PM, 05-13-12
• ST...CC...CM...AR...KS,PepeLePew13, 07:58 PM, 05-13-12

F5 IN: Kim
Booted: Chelsea

F4 IN: Alicia
Booted: Sabrina

F3:
Christina
Alicia
Kim

Winner: Kim

early bird?

The EW preview blurb for the finale -- from two weeks ago -- broke down to 'Hasn't Kim won yet?' When the editing is that blatant, the only thing you can do is sit back and wait for the closing credits.

Alicia gets booted next
then Christina

The final three are Chalsea, Sabrina and Kim

Kim should win hands down.

Kim uses her Hidden Immunity Idol and down goes Christina! At least she made the Final 5!

Kim wins the Final Immunity Challenge and since she knows Sabrina is her biggest threat to winning it all, she leads the charge to get Sabrina on the jury. And she gets her way.

Alicia is unpopular so she comes in 3rd.

Chelsea was more of a loyal soldier, so she comes in 2nd.

Which leaves the true puppetmaster, Kim, as the winner!

There are some indications that Chelsea goes out at Final 5, which would put Christina in the Final 3 with Alicia and Kim.

I still think Kim wins.

I will agree with the early bird, even though he doesn't seem to have a worm.

5th: Christina wasn't in the original alliance, has had almost no story, and is kinda blah. Plus she angered Chelsea (see below), so she's next.

The question is whether Kim uses the idol on herself or Chelsea at this F5. I suspect yes, one of them gets the idol (Kim wins II, gives HII to Chelsea?). Kim isn't dumb, but this might be her fatal flaw.

4th: Sabrina gets booted next, presumably because Alicia wins this immunity challenge (amid a ton of gloating about how she's in charge, so powerful, so awesome, etc.) Chelsea & Kim are tight, and can't vote out Alicia, so they sorrowfully get rid of their other best-bud (which is just as well, since Sab's story has been bland this season, too).

3rd: Alicia gets one vote (Kat? Christina?), and gets ignored by the rest of the jury. They're not bitter towards her... they just don't like her as much as they like/dislike the other two.

2nd/1st: Kim has been the dominant player all season, and when something is that obvious, it's probably not going to happen. Either she's bitten by the bitter jury bug, or she completes one of the most dominant seasons since... well, since Boston Rob, I guess. My wife just said "I hope Kim wins, she's really good." For whatever that's worth.

I think there's a good chance that it's a tie? (and by good, I mean 50%). They've been the dynamic duo all season, so it'd be appropriate for the first-ever tie to go to them.

1st (alone or tie): Chelsea has had more "cut to commercial" moments in my mind: Chelsea vs. the Tarzan poopy pants, Chelsea vs. Tarzan's boobjob comment, Chelsea vs. the chickens, Chelsea vs. the individual challenges (either winning, 2nd place, or telling the gloaters - Leif/Troy/etc. to "shut up"). She's shared in Kim's dominance as the beta to Kim's alpha, and has been saved by Kim more than once. If she wins, she'll owe it all to Kim, who won't be resentful (they just went on their honeymoon, for gosh sakes!), making for a pleasant reunion show.

Plus... Kim has said that she's been looking to get rid of Chelsea. Why show that at all if Kim handily beats Chelsea at the end? The most logical scenario is that they're showing/defending Kim's decision: "Why didn't you get rid of Chelsea when you had the chance? ... oh, so you WERE thinking of getting rid of her, but you didn't. That's why you came in second."

Congrats, Chelsea. You deserve it (maybe not as much as Kim, but I won't be disappointed with you as sole survivor)

I'm convinced at this point, as much as I hate the thought, that Chelsea goes out at 5th place.
Sabrina wins IC and Kim plays her HII to save herself. Kim can look helpless to save Chelsea that way, and keep her vote in the end.

Kim wins the next IC and subtly leads Alicia to move Christina to boot out Sabrina, thus keeping her hand clean and getting Sab's vote in the end.

Alicia makes a fool of herself at Final TC and as a result gets 0 votes.

Christina makes a rational argument that she should win because...well she made it to F3 when better players got played by each other. But comes up short with 2 or 3 votes.

Who will B the next #SoleSurvivor?

Kim will be that B. (B as in Boss lady, not that other B...that would be Alicia)

Gut tells me should have stuck with my choices I had at the end of last episode. So here they are.

Who will be the winner will come down to how bitter the jury is. If the jury is too bitter it could mean an Alicia win.

If I am wrong about the F3 and Chelsea or Sabrina sneak into the F3 I could easily see them beating Kim not because of better game play but because the jury seems awfully bitter at this point.

LAST EDITED ON 05-11-12 AT 01:30 PM (EST)

I just think this is one hell of a bitter jury and Kim won't win any favors. I will say this. If Sabrina indeed makes it to the final 3...she will win it.

I meant AR for the next boot

here's how it may happen

Kim wins F5 IC and gives Chelsea her HII Kim finally realizes her goat strategy (Christina steps in for Kat) is better for her and she decides to boot Sabrina probably with Chelsea's vote

Alicia/Kim wins F4 and Chelsea goes

Christina gets no votes

Jurors

Jonas-Alicia (not sure about his vote maybe Kim)
Mike-Kim
Jay-Kim
Leif-Alicia
Troy-Kim
Kat-Alicia
Tarzan-Alicia
Sabrina-Kim(but maybe Alicia and if so, AR could win)
Chelsea-Kim

ST / CC / AR / KS / CM
F5 IN: Kim
Booted: Sabrina

F4 IN: Alicia
Booted: Christina

F3:
Alicia (0 Votes)
Kim
Chelsea

Winner: Chelsea (because the jury is still bitter)

I believe that if Kim and Chelsea stay together, they can combine their votes to carry Christina into the final three with them. The ST and AR positions could possible reverse themselves depending on if one of them wins Individual Immunity. Chelsea would be an acceptable vote for those on the jury who may be bitter towards Kim.

LAST EDITED ON 05-12-12 AT 07:02 AM (EST)

The girls spelled it out for us on the yacht. They said it's "us" vs Alicia/Christina/Tarzan. Kim said if she couldn't persuade Alicia to vote out Tarzan that she would go with them and vote Chelsea. It gave her another option. But, she didn't have to do that. She told us that she will go to the finals with Sabrina and Chelsea.

Alicia was extremely arrogant last week, and we know that's a very bad sign. Alicia will be the first boot. Christina will follow. Kim will win a game that she controlled from the get-go! She was amazing!

E14 Alicia gets booted. The vid caps show an athletic IC, not suited to her. I think either Kim or Chelsea win II.

In E9 "go out with a bang," Kim tells Troy she doesn't trust Tarzan, Leif, Kat, and Alicia. At first I thought it was misdirection but obviously not as 3/4 are gone. Does that mean Alicia is next? She also explained that she choose Alicia to share reward in E11 "Never Say Die" because she didn't want to leave her back at camp.

E15 Christina gets booted. The challenge preview seems like you need mental strength and calm hands-I think Christina has shown she has puzzle skills.

The only person (who I can remember) having a real interest in takin Christina to F3 is Alicia. I think that's why she went out of her way to make her look bad infront of the jury during tribal council in ep 11 (no one thinks Christina deserves to be here).

F3
Sab
Chelsea
Kim

The conclusion of The Kim Show:

5) Christina: Chelsea & Alicia don’t want Christina, The Invisible, to Outlast them … motion carries.

4) Alicia: Never in the inner 3 of the Instant Beach Alliance of 5. Alicia, The Mouth, tells all at Ponderosa she was in charge of the blindsides & game, etc., unwittingly smoothing the way for Kim.

3) Chelsea: Grog (aka Greg, aka Tarzan) votes for the boob job, advising Chelsea that she has no reason to be upset with her Dr.’s splendid work.

4) Sabrina: Get Jonas’ vote, although he wasn’t around long enough to get to know her, & maybe Leif’s vote.

5) Kim – The rest vote for the “best girl” out there.

5th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd? Don't know, don't care because Kim would beat them all!

I do see Chelsea and Christina has the most likely people joining Kim in the F3 however. Chelsea's comment about having problems looking people in the eye has to come back to bite her during FTC while Christina outlasting Alicia would be good irony.

Kim uses her idol, gets the final 3 goats she wants, and even though all the jurors hate Kim's guts, nobody can stomach voting for the goats and Kim gets all 9 votes.

LAST EDITED ON 05-13-12 AT 01:45 AM (EST)

Sabrina gets voted out to finish in 5th place. She's the strongest player remaining who could take the win from Kim and Kim, despite having some difficulty with the decision, takes the opportunity to take her out. Either Chelsea or Kim wins II, I suspect Kim, and she gives her idol to Chelsea so Chelsea can play it for immunity, and the two of them dictate the boot even if Sabrina or Alicia mounted an otherwise Chelsea boot. Good-bye, Sabrina, but hey it was a respect boot.

Alicia gets booted to finish 4th. F4 is a potential tie situation, so Kim has Chelsea bound to her, they vote together. And, again, Chelsea or Kim seem most likely to win F4 immunity, leaving the two goats no choice but to vote together or vote against each other. Why Alicia? 1. She thinks it will be Christina, so she's not expecting it. 2. She's delusional and thinks she can still win this thing, so it can be played as a respect vote even though it isn't. 3. Christina is an anyone but me vote so she can be played and perhaps there isn't even a tie, as long as she's safe what does she care.

Christina finishes in 3rd, probably getting no votes from the jury. But, hey, Colton, remember when you were telling Christina she was going next and even if she made it to the merge she was first one on the chopping block; well she made it to FTC: Suck it, Turd! At best she maybe gets a Brenda give me DAW time vote, with this cast that's even unlikely, though with Alicia you can never tell.

Cheslea is awesome, Kat idolizes her, she gets Kat's vote. Heart on his sleeve, Leif, maybe even throws her his vote, because she's a deserving person. Otherwise she maybe picks up a bitter vote from Jay.

Kim wins! Really, the edit doesn't suggest any other alternative, she maybe even gets a unanimous win. Or else she blows it spectacularly at FTC, which doesn't seem likely.

LAST EDITED ON 05-13-12 AT 02:48 AM (EST)

This is vote tally #1, post #20, compiling 17 votes, 1 vote change, 1 incomplete (untalliable) vote.

Finish Orders

CM/ST/CC/AR/KS - 4
AR/CC/ST/CM/KS - 3
ST/CM/CC/AR/KS - 2
AR/ST/KS/CC/CM - 1
CC/AR/CM/ST/KS - 1
CC/CM/ST/AR/KS - 1
CC/ST/AR/KS&CM - 1
CM/ST/AR/CC/KS - 1
ST/AR/CC/CM/KS - 1
ST/AR/CC/KS/CM - 1
ST/CC/AR/KS/CM - 1
??/??/??/??/KS - 1 (incomplete, untalliable)

Individual Stats: Finishes

ALICIA
5th - 4
4th - 3
3rd - 3
2nd - 7
1st - 0

CHELSEA
5th - 5
4th - 3
3rd - 1
2nd - 4
1st - 4

CHRISTINA
5th - 3
4th - 4
3rd - 8
2nd - 2
1st - 0

KIM
5th - 0
4th - 0
3rd - 1
2nd - 3
1st - 13

SABRINA
5th - 5
4th - 7
3rd - 4
2nd - 1
1st - 0

I just know this is gonna be 90% wrong The only thing I feel really confident about is Kim's win.

I'm going with Kim to win. I don't see anyone else w/enough editing evidence to support their winning. Chelsea would be a long shot and need a huge Finale editing bump and winning streak to justify her receiving votes to win. I don't think that will happen. The rest of the boot order is pure spec.

The whole parallel alliances thing that Kim has going is deceptive to the spoilers as we don't know which is the real alliance. SEG has even tried to imply doubt in the Kim/Chelsea F2 alliance...which I'm not buying at all. Both are finalists. But then it gets tricky...Sabrina has long been in the final alliance talk...but w/o much backup confessionals to support it. And the alicia thing as a finalist is completely out there floating in thin air. What SEG HAS done (successfully I might add) is to hang the goat bait out there for the viewers/spoilers. And they/we have taken the bait, hook line and sinker. But spoilers are going on past evidence and tradition...which has always included at least 1 goat in a 3 person finale.

This season *could* be different. So if Chelsea makes it to the finale then there is only room for one of Alicia or Christina....assuming that's the way things go. However Sabrina really is no threat to Kim for winner votes...and I think that Kim will likely go all out these final chals to cement in stone her justification as a winner. She certainly has the ability to do so but it's no guarantee of course. But if I had to guess...and I am at that point now...I'd say Kim or Chelsea will bring Sabrina to the end with them... however it turns out in the chals.

The Alicia/Christina order might depend on Kim/Chelsea worrying about Alicia upsetting the applecart and sneaking into the F3 thru a freak chal win. Sabrina is really the one to be worrying about that tho...so if Sabrina is smart(and she is), she will push for Alicia out first at F5. So that's what I'm going with.

F5 Boot - Alicia
F4 Boot - Christina
F3 least votes - Chelsea (one vote from Kat)
F2 2nd least votes - Sabrina (2 votes from Jonas/Leif)
Winner and Sole Survivor - Kim

I believe Kim wins, based on the editing. The rest is just pure speculation of which I must have changed the order at least a hundred times over the last two days.

I believe the 3 that went on the yacht reward made a pact and will be the F3.

I think getting rid of Alicia first is the smart move and my personal preference.

Christina goes next because none of them think she deserves to be in the F3.

I think Kim and Chelsea have upset the most people on the jury and Sabrina will come through with the win by being the most well-liked of the 3 remaining. Kim and Chelsea might just split their few votes.

Kim wins, Alicia comes in a close second because Kim betrays Chelsea and Sabrina on her way to victory.

Jonas - Kim
Michael - Kim
Jay Byers - Kim
Leif Manson - Christina (because he's been so out of the loop the entire season)
Troy - Kim
Kat Edorsson - Alicia
Tarzan - Alicia
Chelsea - Kim
Sabrina - Alicia

LAST EDITED ON 05-13-12 AT 06:13 PM (EST)

This is vote tally #2, post #26, compiling 22 votes, 1 vote change, 1 incomplete (untalliable) vote, 1 previous tally.

Finish Orders

CM/ST/CC/AR/KS - 5
AR/CC/ST/CM/KS - 3
ST/AR/CC/CM/KS - 2
ST/CM/CC/AR/KS - 2
AR/CC/CM/ST/KS - 1
AR/CC/KS/CM/ST - 1
AR/ST/KS/CC/CM - 1
CC/AR/CM/ST/KS - 1
CC/CM/ST/AR/KS - 1
CC/ST/AR/KS&CM - 1
CM/ST/AR/CC/KS - 1
ST/AR/CC/KS/CM - 1
ST/CC/AR/CM/KS - 1
ST/CC/AR/KS/CM - 1
??/??/??/??/KS - 1 (incomplete, untalliable)

Individual Stats: Finishes

ALICIA
5th - 6
4th - 4
3rd - 4
2nd - 8
1st - 0

CHELSEA
5th - 6
4th - 3
3rd - 3
2nd - 7
1st - 4

CHRISTINA
5th - 3
4th - 7
3rd - 10
2nd - 2
1st - 0

KIM
5th - 0
4th - 0
3rd - 2
2nd - 3
1st - 17

SABRINA
5th - 7
4th - 8
3rd - 4
2nd - 2
1st - 1

Thanks Dabo for doing this vote thread every week. It's much appreciated by all who participate and it has been a lot of fun this season. So thanks so much for doing this for the Survivor Blows community!

Here's how I see it.

Chelsea wins F5 immunity, making Kim's decision easier. They boot Sabrina because she has the best potential to sway a jury beside Kim. Sabrina will also be less likely to show bitterness and have respect for how the game is played.

At F4, it is usually an endurance challenge of some sort and Kim is best able to win this type of challenge with her strength and lankiness. Christina goes because both Chelsea and Alicia are likely to show real anger at being booted over Christina.

Kim wins the final jury vote 6-2-1, as the jury laughs at Alicia's declaration of her power and some are able to get Chelsea riled up to ##### off some jurors and lose some votes (we've been shown how her mouth gets her into trouble so it will have an effect in the final vote).

Kim proves for once and all that she is more effective in picking goats than in picking husbands.