ADVISORY: Vote threads are open to all who wish to participate and cast their votes, spoilers and non-spoilers alike. The posts initiating these threads contain no spoiler information other than perhaps referencing what has been revealed in TV promos for the upcoming episode. Non-spoilers, be advised that spoilers may include information in their posts here which you may not wish to read. Spoilers, please do not include spoiler information for future episodes, stick to the episode in question.

The DAWS

Tikiano (black) Tribe

Alicia Ross (Salani, Manono2)
Chelsea Meissner (Salani, Salani2)
Christina Cha (Salani, Manono2)
Greg "Tarzan" Smith (Manono, Manono2)
Jay Byers (Manono, Salani2)
Kat Edorsson (Salani, Salani2)
Kim Spradin (Salani, Salani2)
Leif Manson (Manono, Manono2)
Sabrina Thompson (Salani, Salani2)
Troy "Troyzan" Robertson (Manono, Salani2)

the jury
ep 7. Jonas Otsuji (Manono, Manono2, Tikiano)
ep 8. Michael Jefferson (Manono, Salani2, Tikiano)

eliminated
ep 1. Kourtney Moon (Salani) medical evacuation
ep 2. Nina Acosta (Salani)
ep 3. Matt Quinlan (Manono)
ep 4. Bill Posley (Manono)
ep 5. Monica Culpepper (Salani, Manono2)
ep 6. Colton Cumble (Manono, Manono2) medical evacuation

The Rules

1. Put the name of your choice for this week's boot in the subject heading.

This is easy, just erase the bit where it says "Re: SurvivorBlowsTribe, Time to Vote..." and replace with your vote, e.g., "Christina." Or, if you think this will be a two-boot week: "Chrsitina and Kat." It doesn't matter which order you put them in unless it matters to you.

This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately. Nicknames are tougher to tally unless they are really obvious without actually reading your post. Other things you want to vote on (who wins what challenge, who gets first confessional, when Jeff shows up), these should go in your post not in your subject line.

2. Reply only to this post.

We like a nice straight OCD vote thread around here, it's easier that way.

EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES!

2b. But to change your vote reply to your own post.

Your new post heading should read, for example, "VOTE CHANGE: Troy." Or perhaps "VOTE CHANGE: Troy and Leif" if you think it will be a two-boot week.

3. This is not a discussion thread, do not treat it as such.

There are plenty of places on the forum to debate the merits of people's arguments, have discussions, have civil and polite disagreements, this is a vote thread.

But please feel free to discuss your vote(s) in your own post, cast all the extra votes you want, make smug jokes, we're all interested in what you have to say.

4. No graphics!

If you must have a graphic please make it pertinent to something. Thank you.

5. Have fun!

Will there ever be a double boot?

• Jay ,Arnold_Lorax, 10:27 AM, 04-10-12
• Tarzan,byoffer, 10:55 AM, 04-10-12
• Kat,SuperClyde, 03:09 PM, 04-10-12
• Chelsea,tribephyl, 00:59 AM, 04-11-12
• HEY CHRISTINA...,Round Robin, 01:12 AM, 04-11-12
• JAY,bertygal13, 08:25 AM, 04-11-12
• Leif,parathor, 09:21 AM, 04-11-12
• Christina,jasonkola, 11:13 AM, 04-11-12
• Jay,Sandtiger33, 11:28 AM, 04-11-12
• Alicia,dabo, 12:35 PM, 04-11-12
• Leif,Blind Freddy, 01:42 PM, 04-11-12
• Alicia,Loree, 02:10 PM, 04-11-12
• Vote Tally #1,dabo, 04:15 PM, 04-11-12
• Jay,PepeLePew13, 04:32 PM, 04-11-12
• Jay,Corvis, 04:45 PM, 04-11-12
• Jay,michel, 05:17 PM, 04-11-12
• Christina,CTgirl, 05:21 PM, 04-11-12
• Jay,Zeek, 06:11 PM, 04-11-12
• Christina,MyDogMya, 06:14 PM, 04-11-12
• Vote Tally #2,dabo, 07:19 PM, 04-11-12
• Christina,mimo, 07:44 PM, 04-11-12
• Christina,OllieKat, 07:46 PM, 04-11-12
• Chelsea!,littletown, 08:06 PM, 04-11-12
• Alicia,Karchita, 08:48 PM, 04-11-12
• Final Tally,dabo, 09:42 PM, 04-11-12

No doubts in my mind, all the signs point to his departure

Though he is a goat and not a threat, I think booting him now will be done by the girls to try to make Jay/Troyzan happy. At some point Kim and Chelsea need to try to get some jury votes, so maybe they will make deals to boot Tarzan first.

Is that weird?

She gets Dolly'd.

...it's time for you to go!

BTW there will be NO double boot. The absence of a recrap show renders one unnecessary.

The girls would be stupid not to send him home next

(...wait, Leif??)

1. He's almost hidden in the promos
2. He "spiked" in Dabo's confessionals (to 1... but 1 is a spike for him)
3. He makes the most "logical" sense from Kim's perspective.

(...wait, logical?)

1. He's on "the other tribe" - twice (men, Manono), making this the biggest no-brainer (Tarzan would also be acceptable)
2. "He'd get votes from the jury" (I know, I doubt it too, but whatever)
3. Chelsea was annoyed with Leif last episode... and if she can't get rid of Tarzan, Leif would be the consolation prize

(Arnold_Lorax has been right 3x in a row now, and thinks it's Jay, and I'm down with that... but I'll go with Leif anyway, because it's really Kim's best move)

I think the Christina would be the best choice. First, they would not have to worry about her flipping. Second, voting out a girl would make Troy and Jay feel more comfortable in their alliance, making it easier to blind side them in case they have the idol. In the end The girls would still have the numbers and would lose someone who may turn on them.

I think he is too "sketchy" about the girls and I don't think Leif has had enough screen time to warrant an exit yet, although I would love to see Alicia go, but sadly it is not this week IMHO.

Please.

And why not, she's all over the promos, and the women can afford to sacrifice one of their own while they continue to mess with Troyzan's head, plotting to discover whether someone has the HII, get it out. Christina would work as well, but she's no one's buddy, Tarzan thinks Alicia is his Jane.

Alt. Jay. For the obvious reasons.

LAST EDITED ON 04-11-12 AT 01:43 PM (EST)

Newton's First Law of Physics: 'An object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion with the same speed and in the same direction unless acted upon by an unbalanced force.'

Since Kim seems to represent the object in motion and Greg seems to represent both the object at rest as well as the unbalanced force, I think we'll see some basic Physics in action this episode.

As this season seems to be highlighting the potential winners...showing the moves to justify them as such, Kim as the current frontrunner, knows that while she currently is in control w/the majority numbers....it is not a mandate...she cannot split the vote. She needs another Male gone to do that..then it's a game of attrition.

*If* Kim gets wind of a rumored HII(other than her own) floating around, she might guess that Troy or Jay has it. In that case, she would likely want to force the HII and make a 'safe' boot(someone other than a high profile target like Jay or Troy).

So if it's between Leif and Greg, and Greg presents himself as perfect goat material while Leif has a slight sympathy edit, then I think Kim will choose the 'safe' boot, Leif. She can likely assume that neither Troy or Jay would give the HII to Leif. So let the power guys have their HII and/or IN and safely boot the exposed male remaining that's more likely to drain Finale votes.....that would be Leif.

At least that's what Kim *should* do. But we all know the players take on reality is adrift just as often from it as Greg seems to be lately. But I'm thinking Newton has been on a roll for awhile longer than Survivor, so I'm gonna stick with the instincts of Sir Isaac Newton.

I am torn between Alicia and Christina. I think Kim & Chelsea are going to end up booting a girl to make Troyzan and Jay feel more comfortable. They can boot one of them and still keep the female numbers over the men. And Alicia/Christina were both on the other team. I just think Alicia is more annoying than Christina.

This is vote tally #1, post #13, compiling 12 votes and no other posts.

Jay: 3
Alicia: 2
Christina: 2
Leif: 2
Chelsea: 1
Greg "Tarzan": 1
Kat: 1
UTR: Kim, Sabrina, Troy "Troyzan"

He's in the promos doing a little stirring of the pot with Kat in particular and that's dangerous for Kim who probably figures on Kat going far in the game as her puppet. She already had to keep an eye on him last episode, and not only is he creating a sense of danger in yapping around but he's also a challenge threat and a male.

Loose mouth + male + threat = he gets to keep Jonas and Mike company for a while.

He tries to turn the game around and he fails. Male pagonging continues. At some point, I think it will stop and the tables will turn, but not yet.

I'd prefer to see Tarzan leave and it wouldn't be a bad move but now that the pagonging of the guys has begun it looks like Jay's turn.

Or any other nuManano.

The promos don't have me convinced that Jay is going. If Jay or Troyzan were going, I'd expect to hear something about alliances broken or betrayal. The promos are pretty tame so no matter what goes on in camp, in the end I think the core 4 will vote out a nuManano. Possibly the girls get wind that Christina is talking to Troyzan about who to vote out and they decide to target her - they take out a potential flipper who was not in their original alliance and make Jay happy with a girl boot. Final 10 is not a good time to trip to flip the game.

But honestly, I would not be surprised to see Tarzan, Leif, Christina or Jay go home.

I do wish the men could get something going (so if won't be a boring pagonning), but I don't think its going to happen.

Tarzan: "Troy, these girls (kim) are going to pick us off one at a time."
Troy: lying to Tarzan, "Something big can happen. We can get rid of her."

Jay: Lobbying/playing Kim, by keeping their alliance a secret he has a better chance of securing jury votes (?) "If you dont want the girls to know about our NuSalani core4 alliance, the next four votes (to throw the girls off) are coming your way."
Kim: "so in order to save myself the other 6 votes need to go to.....Christina????" (possible flipper makes her a threat)

Troy: "they're (NuManano) going to get the switch a roo. They think we are going to vote Kim but we are getting rid of....Christina??? " (Also playing both sides)

Chelsea: after being lobbyied by Sab and Alucia to vote out Troy/Jay, "I can't let them know about my NuSalani 4, but I don't know if I'm ready to go against the guys".

Thoughts....

LAST EDITED ON 04-11-12 AT 07:20 PM (EST)

This is vote tally #2, post #20, compiling 18 votes and 1 previous tally.

Jay: 7
Christina: 4
Alicia: 2
Leif: 2
Chelsea: 1
Greg "Tarzan": 1
Kat: 1
UTR: Kim, Sabrina, Troy "Troyzan"

Another loose end cut but still allows Kim and Chelsea to keep their options open.

I'm actually feeling it's 51% chance of Christina, 49% Jay. Jay makes sense to me based on his stirring the pot last week making him an attractive target for Kim but the lack of excitement in the promos leads me to think the hidden player Christina will be booted. I suppose that could apply to Leif as well. After the way they overhyped Michael's boot I would expect a Jay boot to get much more attention.

why not?

I may be wishing more than analyzing, but a woman's got to go if Kim and Chelsea (and Kat and Sabrina) are to maintain the illusion of being allied with Jay and Troy and Christina makes a better goat.

Jay: 7
Christina: 6
Alicia: 3
Chelsea: 2
Leif: 2
Greg "Tarzan": 1
Kat: 1
UTR: Kim, Sabrina, Troy "Troyzan"

Fun week! At least I got a partial, Jay was gunning for Alicia.