Now that the premier episode is a part of the past, and we know that there will most likely be two more episodes before the tribal shuffle, I thought I would open a new thread available to speculate on the make-up of the tribes, and perhaps how they are formed.

First of all, before we start, I think that the shuffle will take place in episode 4, when 3 people have left the game. I predict, thanks to the belted challenge where the girls win, that 2 girls will be removed from the game. I predict that 1 male will be removed from the game. As time goes by, and we get more episode vidcaps, we may validate or refute this speculation. As there is a real possibility that the shuffle could take place post episode 4...

Here is what we KNOW definitively, by vidcaps of them in the 3 challenges that are post shuffle:

New Manono (Orange tribe, formerly the men's tribe): Leif, Colton, Jonas, Greg, Christina, Alicia, Mystery Woman?Chelsea, ???

New Salani, (Blue tribe, formerly the girls tribe): Jay, Michael, ???, ???, Kim, Sabrina, Kat
Seen, but we don't know which tribe: Bill
Not seen at all: Nina, Monica, Matt, Troy

Assuming that the shuffle takes place in episode 4, there will be 3 people gone. I predict 2 girls and 1 guy. But now, with no evidence of Monica in the post shuffle challenges, it could be in episode 5, when 4 people are gone. We will make best spec for both.

Shuffle in episode 4:

IF, shuffle occurs in ep 4, 15 people left in game, most likely down 2 girls and 1 guy, so the post shuffle tribal numbers would be Salani: 7 members, and Manono: 8 members. With 8 guys, I speculate that the guys will be split 4/4, and girls 3/4, with 3 girls going to Salani and 4 girls going to Manono...if this is the case then Bill would be on the blue Salani tribe because we have evidence of 4 guys already on the Manono Tribe.

Girls not seen: Nina and Monica. I have heavily favored Chelsea as being seen in the orange buff with Sabrina.

MY SPEC: New Salani: Jay, Michael, Bill, ?Troy/Matt?, Kim, Kat, Sabrina
New Manono: Leif, Colton, Jonas, Greg, Christina, Alicia, Chelsea, ?Monica

Shuffle in episode 5

If the shuffle occurs in ep 5, 14 people left in the game, most likely down 2-3 girls, or 1-2 men. Harder to put them into groups....but, I would predict that the tribes would be split evenly? There is room for argument here.

Spec: New Salani: Jay, Michael, Bill, Kim, Kat, Sabrina, 1 of Monica/Matt/Troy
New Manono: Colton, Leif, Jonas, Greg, Christina, Alicia, Chelsea

• RE: Post Shuffle Tribes,Outfrontgirl, 10:24 PM, 02-16-12

Fantastic! Great topic ... can't wait to get more info ...

I would like to put out there that a swap could be triggered by two women going, and the signs that these gender-split tribes are imploding ... time to switch it up before the season goes to hell?

Next boot, male"
history tells us that when one side gets down to where they seem less threatening, the pent up demand to boot one of the winning side will be large, time to boot a man.

I mean, the men are dying to kick someone off already.

We know there are a minimum of seven women left in the belt challenge, right? And most likely it is RC as the weaker men aren't sitting out. Six women we see, and one arm? (Monica, Kim, Alicia, Sabrina, Cat, Christina, plus a high five arm.)

We should keep in mind that the swap could come at the IC. So we could have a non-swapped RC and a swapped IC (belt challenge and perhaps slingshot, which we know is an IC)?

If this happens in Ep 3, the water basketball could still be in Ep 4 with three people gone, but the swap would have occurred with two people gone and even numbers.