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Thread Number: 783
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Original Message
"APEril ripped it for me, but just for speculation..."
Posted by SpoonStruck on 08-26-05 at 02:14 AM
Now that boring APEril has won HOH, I might have lost the will to keep watching. She's so stupid and vapid, I don't know if she'll have the wits to know that now is the time to eat her own. I think her most strategic nominations would be Maggie and Beau, with Maggie getting voted out. What do you think?


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Messages in this discussion
"RE: APEril ripped it for me, but just for speculation..."
Posted by Gottaluvme830 on 08-26-05 at 07:43 AM
Ohhhhhh i was soooooo upset that April won. I swore I wouldnt watch the show cuz its over now!!! I will just read whats going on from this site!
"RE: APEril ripped it for me, but just for speculation..."
Posted by megpie on 08-26-05 at 08:14 AM
I am glad that April got HOH. JMO , this makes for a interesting show, so why stop watching. The game is for someone to win the money. That doesn't mean that April will last till the end. Maybe J/H/J will pull this thing off and end up winning. CBS only casts the HG's, they don't control how they act in the game. Maybe sometimes we jump the gun and start liking the HG's before they show their true colors. As for me I would like to see Maggie and James in the final two and maybe Maggie win it all. This is JMO.
"RE: APEril ripped it for me, but just for speculation..."
Posted by Estee on 08-26-05 at 07:55 AM
One theory going around, started by True, is that this will be the last chance to backdoor James. With seven hamsters left and six playing for Veto, he can be excluded from the competition and snuck onto the block after removing Pawn #1. The flaw: Ivette would freak. But no matter what you do in the house, Ivette will freak, so it may not be all that much of a problem.

I half-expect April to pull a mini-Cappy and start putting house rules into effect. Lights out times. Bible readings. Dress code for Howie. Total ban on the word 'busto'. Bowing down in front of a picture of her dog five times a day.

"THIS is a revolting mess....."
Posted by kingfish on 08-26-05 at 08:21 AM
Probably boob and his partner, 'pus mouth' would be a better pair to nominate, betting that neither one gets Veto. They could also pull a rigged veto comp so that both end up in the evictee's seats on boot night.

It would be in any (including Vap-ril's) of the remaining HG's interest to have one (or both) of the last pair go up before that two person voting bloc is all but unbeatable (the fewer people in the house, the more power a two person bloc has).

Either one of the two could be the ultimate target, but 'dripping, festering, pus-sore for a mouth' might be a better choice because boob might be more predictable and flexible. And reasonable.

Even though 'venom belching gaping wound for a mouth' would be a perfect F2 partner, one would have to get to that point first, and getting rid of her might make that easier.

However, I do think that they will pagong this week. April will probably want to nominate Howie. Mags will lean her to name James. SO Howie and James nominated, if either gets veto, Janelle is the sub, and Howie (maybe James) is booted.

"Nope"
Posted by true on 08-26-05 at 08:33 AM
As sad is it is to admit, April is the smartest one left in the game.

I didn't get the feeds in week one, but from week 2 on, April has been in control. She was instrumental in getting the focus off Jen and on to Michael in week 2. Week 3, she had no problem with Cappy going. Week 4, she encouraged her group to cut Kaysar. Week 5, she was the one who worked Howie up into a frenzy leading to the nomination of Sarah and James. She also put a target on Ivette. Week 6, she helped Jen get rid of Kaysar again. Week 7, she took tons of sh!t from Howie, but never crumbled completely, earning his respect. She lost Jen, but that has allowed her to start really working her game.

She spent all last week sucking up to Rachel, knowing that she was going to the jury. Unlike moron Ivette, she gave her a great goodbye message, taking another step toward securing her vote in the end.

April knows that to make it to the end she has to get rid of James. She was the only NH to figure out that this would be the last week to backdoor James out of the game. She also was the only NH to figure out that James has to work with the jedi in order to have a chance to win the game. She also knows that in order to keep Ivette in line, James has to go.

April has also spent time working on Maggie. She's planted the seed of doubt about Ivette with her, and she's kept it watered. Maggie is on board to get James out, thanks to April.

Once James is gone, it's likely that H/J will target Beau/Ivette or Maggie before they target April. If April gets rid of James this week, she'll be sure and lay it on thick that she did so to right the wrong of Kaysar's eviction. She'll have saved Howie and Janelle.

If she continues to build trust, and continues to be nice to Howie and Janelle, she will have secured enough votes to win at the end against any other member of the friendship. She knows that Howie and Janelle are better to keep around, because she'd beat either of them in the end, since the friendship has vowed to vote for one of their own, and they control the votes. She's in a great position this week, if she works it right.

Who'da thunk it?

"RE: Nope"
Posted by EnglProf on 08-26-05 at 09:33 AM
Oh no! Excellent analysis, true.

Isn’t it ironic that someone who’s so arguably idiotic has pansied her way into the best strategy?

The only good news is that if you’re right (and we should actually give her credit for enacting this strategy) then maybe Howie and Janelle are safe for another week. One of them will go up on the block, obviously, but maybe Maggie and April really will stick to getting out James. That would be fabulous!

And as for the other possible noms listed in this thread thus far—I don’t see how it would be in April’s best interests to nominate Beau/Ivette or any of the players from the Girl Scout troup. Yes she’ll have a better chance winning against James, Howie, or Janelle, but only if she gets to the final 2 with one of them “accidentally” or through no transparent volition of her own. If she starts backstabbing this soon, she’ll lose jury votes from her “friends.”

I’m miserable that April won, but if she plays it by gunning for James, that’d be superb.



Handcrafted by RollDdice


"RE: Nope"
Posted by true on 08-26-05 at 09:47 AM
I’m miserable that April won, but if she plays it by gunning for James, that’d be superb.

I want to be careful not to take this into spoiler mode, but, April and Maggie have been planning just that for the past week, at least. Their only obstacle is making sure that Ivette is fully on board in getting James out. They're not sure they can trust her to use the veto, if she wins it. (slim chance of that, she couldn't win her way out of a paper bag with a pair of scissors)

By getting James out this week, the only one who she ticks off is Ivette, who already doesn't like her. She would gain points with the Jedi, and Maggie and Beau both want James and Ivette broken up.

"kingfish"
Posted by kingfish on 08-26-05 at 11:09 AM
"Oh no! Excellent analysis, true."

Yes, indeed it is. But I stick to my gut (Lex returns!!) feeling that she is an idiot with better survival instincts than her teammates. Instinct as opposed to intellect. It's a nit though, because whatever works, works. And it may well win her the game.

But smart, well, in contrast to the other girl scouts (Ivette? Bo? even Maggie? No Einsteins there!) she may be the smartest, as True pointed out she out-thought them on various occasions.

But I see most of her smart moves as being the equivalent to watching your safety line become untied and grasping for it at the last monent. Pure survival instinct. It's a moot point though.

And as for the other possible noms listed in this thread thus far—I don’t see how it would be in April’s best interests to nominate Beau/Ivette or any of the players from the Girl Scout troup.

Excellent reasoning also, EP. But unless they are to concede the F2 to Bo and Ivette, Someone has to nominate them both, and the time to do it is soon, to keep the 2 person bloc from being stronger (2/7 is weaker than 2/6 or 2/5 will be). She has less chance of getting to F2 with the Bo/Ivette combo intact. They are two voters whose main goal is to get themselves to F2 (with substantial incentive), and she is only one voter whose main goal is to get her to F2. This has to be done soon, and delaying it decreases everyone's chances.

Suppose she does get to F2 after nominating one of them this week, by the time f2 voting arrives, either they will be voting for;

April, or either James, Jan or Howie. The Nom. of Bo and Ivette right now wouldn't have any impact at F2 on the final selection. She will win, with a jury of four satanic girl scouts and three from the not-evil side.

OR;

April, and another satanic girl scout. Depending on who that is, the dynamics could favor her here too. There will be four not-evils, and three satans on the jury. A very complex situation which could very well work for her. Maybe she stands less chance in this scenerio, but she IS in F2, and and has positiond herself to be eligible to win, and at least gets the losers share. If the makes the Bo/ivette nom now, by the time the final voting is held, who knows what other animosities would have arisen to counter the ill will from Bo/Ivette? She has demonstated proficiency at muddying the situation, and she will have several weeks to work the other HGs.

If she doesn't Nom. Bo/Ivette now, IMO she weakens her chances to even get to F2. IMO, if she is smart enough, or has the survival skills she needs, she will put up bo and Ivette. There will be some tension created in the girl scout squad from hell, but if she can do it and explain it well enough, she could survive the immediate aftermath and have a better chance to get to F2. And maybe win.

Now that I've said that - HEX, HEX, POX, POX!!!!

(This is just acedemic, I very much doubt that she will see this. The Pagonging began with Rachael, and will continue, I suppose).


"RE: kingfish"
Posted by EnglProf on 08-26-05 at 11:46 AM
Interesting. I agree that Ivette and Beau have to go soon, but I think it suits April better to get either James/Howie/or Janelle out now, and then LET anyone but Ivette get HOH next week.

We’ve seen that the Sovereigns are planning to go after Ivette and Beau when/if they get HOH soon because they’ve decided it’s important to break up the pair. Doesn’t it make more sense for April to convince everybody behind the scenes that none of them have a chance against Ivette and Beau & let somebody else do her dirty work? That way she won’t piss off two of her friends and potential jury members, but can still work to accomplish the same thing.

PS--I abhor the fact that it sounds like I'm rooting for this woman. I'm only interested in her moves as a means to a Howie/Janelle ends (so to speak).


Handcrafted by RollDdice

"RE: kingfish"
Posted by Swami on 08-26-05 at 12:03 PM
I refuse to use the words "smart" and "April" in the same sentence. I prefer to use the word "canny."

April has been playing a very canny game from very early one.

I don't think she will cannibalize her team. Nominating Howie & Janelle, with the possibility of back-dooring James available gives her the most flexibility for the longest time. She can play on instinct right up until Veto time and then do what she feels ir right in the moment.