LAST EDITED ON 12-18-11 AT 10:08 AM (EST)

Most seasons we have a jury speculation thread. Let's break this down!

If the F3 are: Coach, Ozzy, Sophie...

Jim: Ozzy
Keith: Ozzy
Dawn: Ozzy
Whitney: Ozzy
Cochran: Coach
Edna: Coach
Brandon: Coach
Rick: Sophie
Albert: Sophie

I think if Ozzy can win the last challenges, and/or if Coach honors his promise as a religious man than Ozzy will win. This is a really hard one for me, because if Ozzy discloses that he made a promise with Coach as a religious man and then Coach dishonors it, it could hurt him, because this is such a "religious, honor, integrity" type group. I do think that the season boils down to either Coach or Ozzy. The only way I don't see Ozzy winning is if he loses and Coach goes back on his word. But, if that happened and the Savaii decide to not vote for Coach then who would they vote for....? I think that each and everyone of them felt that Albert was the approachable one and that Albert went to bat for them but got shot down every time from Sophie, Coach. So, I think that they just might vote for Albert. Albert also swindled the IN from Brandon....which would bode well for me if I was a juror. When Albert was a sure bet to go, he ends up safe....I'd give that credit to Albert. Brandon said that his closest friend in the game was Albert....??

Nevertheless, I don't see anyone winning but Coach or Ozzy this season.

If the F3 are: Coach, Albert, Sophie
Jim: Coach
Keith: Coach
Dawn: Coach
Whitney: Albert
Cochran: Coach
Edna: Coach
Brandon: Albert
Rick: Sophie
Ozzy: Coach

• RE: How will the jury VOTE?,dabo, 11:08 AM, 12-18-11
• RE: How will the jury VOTE?,Brownroach, 11:50 AM, 12-18-11
  • RE: How will the jury VOTE?,PepeLePew13, 01:36 PM, 12-18-11
    • RE: How will the jury VOTE?,SquidProQuo, 03:34 PM, 12-18-11
      • RE: How will the jury VOTE?,SquidProQuo, 03:40 PM, 12-18-11
      • RE: How will the jury VOTE?,Belle Book, 05:10 PM, 12-18-11
        • RE: How will the jury VOTE?,SquidProQuo, 08:56 PM, 12-18-11
• RE: How will the jury VOTE?,Belle Book, 05:15 PM, 12-18-11
• RE: How will the jury VOTE?,dabo, 10:03 AM, 12-19-11
  • RE: How will the jury VOTE?,SquidProQuo, 11:18 AM, 12-19-11
    • RE: How will the jury VOTE?,Wacko Jacko, 03:41 PM, 12-19-11
  • RE: How will the jury VOTE?,Belle Book, 11:56 AM, 12-19-11
    • RE: How will the jury VOTE?,dabo, 01:12 PM, 12-19-11
• The way they almost always vote.,Estee, 01:29 PM, 12-19-11
  • RE: The way they almost always vote.,Wacko Jacko, 03:39 PM, 12-19-11
  • RE: The way they almost always vote.,jbug, 04:01 PM, 12-19-11
    • RE: The way they almost always vote.,Estee, 05:26 PM, 12-19-11
    • RE: The way they almost always vote.,michel, 09:19 PM, 12-19-11
      • RE: The way they almost always vote.,Outfrontgirl, 09:24 PM, 12-19-11
      • RE: The way they almost always vote.,dabo, 01:19 PM, 12-20-11
        • RE: The way they almost always vote.,CTgirl, 01:27 PM, 12-20-11
          • RE: The way they almost always vote.,Belle Book, 01:43 PM, 12-20-11
• RE: How will the jury VOTE?,SquidProQuo, 05:25 PM, 12-19-11
  • RE: How will the jury VOTE?,Toban, 06:46 PM, 12-19-11
    • RE: How will the jury VOTE?,Tummy, 03:11 PM, 12-20-11
  • RE: How will the jury VOTE?,Belle Book, 09:20 PM, 12-19-11

Dawn said in her interview that she was kind of creeped out by Coach, I think she would join fellow Mormon Rick in voting for Sophie.

I imagine there would have been campaigning among the jury, or at least post-Tribal discussions about what was said at each Tribal.

I don't think Edna would vote for Coach under any circumstances.

...and if Coach breaks his promise to Ozzy, then Ozzy might not vote for Coach either.

It could go either way for Coach tonight because he's gotten the credit for both good moves and betrayal moves, so I think Sophie is going to pick up a number of "what-should-have-been-Coach's" votes. We're seeing a number of comments showing respect for Sophie as a competitor/strategist in the game.

Agreed. It all comes down to who feels betrayed by Coach or offended by his use of religion. On the surface, Sophie made no promises to anyone and was more behind the scenes so didn't really let anyone down....vs. Coach, who was the "leader" and therefore will take the wrath.

Personally, I think that Edna, just as an example, has no business being mad at Coach....because without him, she would have been long gone. And she herself lied to everyone about being a doctor.

I think it's telling that Edna said she hugged everyone when she was voted out, but they only showed Coach. (Same with Brandon and others.) So obviously they're setting this storyline up for the finale.

Jeff Probst said in his most recent EW Q&A that he'd vote for Coach. So this says to me that Coach most likely doesn't win and Sophie does and Jeff isn't happy about it -- hence, the weird edit we got this season. (Somewhat similar to when Natalie beat Russell.) I think Jeff feels Coach deserved to win and is more compelling TV vs. Sophie, and that's why we were given the Coach (and Ozzy) story all season.

Despite the fact that I think Sophie is smart/sane and I like her better than Coach, I would have to vote for Coach too. I think he came in as a disliked wacko, on the outs, with the returnee factor against him, and yet somehow he patched together an alliance that made it through to the end. He was the one who convinced Cochran to quit, which was the key play of the game. Not to mention many other key plays. If he does lose, his downfall was too much focus on "honor" when he should have kept the goats and ditched Sophie -- this is the critical mistake that Boston Rob avoided.

As Coach himself said this past episode, the jury is a different animal. So we'll see who the jury rewards this time.

P.S. Ozzy should have Fan Favorite locked up!

P.S. If either Coach or Ozzy do pull out the win, it will be amazing to have 2 returnees in a row win. Any word out there yet as to whether they're doing returnees again next season? Can't imagine how they'd have a chance...but it sure seems like Jeff/CBS feel they need the returnee star power to fuel ratings.

Hope they don't recruit another Hantz family members..especially Brandon's dad!

I agree that because Jeff liked Coach and Ozzy, he'd be mad if Sophie beat either one and that's the reason for her edit being so bad. I don't know if Coach deserved to win or not, but he is more compelling TV than Sophie, so I can see why Jeff would be mad if Sophie won.

I think that on a strategic level, Coach deserves to win. But the social aspect is still a little lacking, and there's one key factor of his strategic game that's lacking as well -- his knowledge that you should take the goats with you. He would rather take warriors with him, he always wanted to do so, but it's really in your best interest to take goats with you to the Final 3 (or 2). He should have taken Edna or Brandon instead of Sophie. If he had, he'd certainly win.

Yep, we're on the same page, Belle.

The Final 3 will probably be Albert, Coach and Sophie, so:

Jim: maybe Coach (he respects strategy),
Keith: Sophie (he has no respect for Albert, and Coach went too far with the "honor" bit),
Dawn: Sophie (same reason as Keith),
Whitney: Sophie (same as Dawn and Keith),
Cochran: Coach (he'll respect Coach's strategic gameplay),
Edna: Sophie (she feels betrayed by Coach),
Brandon: Albert (he doesn't like Sophie and feels betrayed by Coach as well),
Rick: Sophie (he too feels betrayed by Coach) &
Ozzy: Sophie (he feels betrayed by Coach and respects the fact that Sophie beat him in the last Immunity Challenge).

It's a 6-2-1 vote that Sophie wins.

And how it went:

Brandon - Coach
Cochran - Coach
Dawn - Sophie
Edna - Sophie
Jim - Coach
Keith - Sophie
Ozzy - Sophie
Rick - Sophie
Whitney - Sophie

Interesting, I didn't realize Brandon was Coach's 3rd vote. Thanks Dabo!

Closer than it could have been. Kinda felt bad for Coach -- he is usually pretty articulate but he just folded up in front of the jury vs. making his case and taking ownership for his game. He obviously wasn't prepared for the betrayal backlash...which he should have been.

Loved Sophie's comment that it's usually a man dragging along 2 young girls but she figured out a way to take 2 guys.

But Ozzy was the big winner last night from a PR / overall fan standpoint. He may not be the most strategic/social game player out there, but I still love him.....and he is amazing at what he does.

I think if there ever was a brat it was Ozzy. All three seasons when he got voted out he took the bitter stance. I do not understand the love....his gameplay is souly winning challenges.

I thought either Brandon or Ozzy was Coach's third vote once I saw that Coach had three votes. I guess Coach choked when it came to the jury, but the damage might have been done before then.

Poor Brandon, ended up voting for a girl anyay.

Badly.

AGREE!

Brandon - Coach
Cochran - Coach
Dawn - Sophie
Edna - Sophie
Jim - Coach
Keith - Sophie
Ozzy - Sophie
Rick - Sophie
Whitney - Sophie

How would you change each vote?

I can't change the way each juror saw the F3 and have no right to in the first place: it's their ballot, they cast it as they didn't really think about it to begin with. All I can say is that if it had been me on the jury, I would have gritted my teeth, thought about the total sum of gameplay, kicked myself three times, and voted for Benji. And then I would have promptly found a cliff to jump off. But at least I would have voted for the best player out of the three. I despise the slimy SOB, but in a trio against those other two, he's the one who earned the win.

Of Sophie's votes, how many are for her -- and how many are against Benji?

Are those votes the way you think they voted or is that really how they voted?

I was wondering the same. Last night there was no voting footage up on CBS, although there are a bunch of Jury speaks videos that are done (if like before) at Ponderosa before the actual vote and don't reflect what happened to the juror's opinion at FTC.

Those were the votes as recorded on wikipedia. It has now changed to show Cochran, Edna and Rick as the Coach votes.

Follow the updater war

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivor_south_pacific

Interesting. I think that it makes more sense that Brandon voted for Coach than Rick.

Well, I did hear somewhere that Brandon didn't vote for Coach, so this doesn't surprise me too much. But I would have expected Jim to vote for Coach more than Rick.

From Sophie's ZapIt interview. (BTW, she comes across as somewhat condescending and arrogant in her interviews.)

Were you surprised that you won?

"No, I had a pretty good feeling coming out of Tribal. I felt like I understood what the jury wanted at Tribal. They just wanted some honesty. They're smart people and they wanted to be told what our strategy was and they didn't want to be bulls******. And I gave that to them. I could tell they appreciated that.

Also, Albert and Coach had epically bad Tribal Council performances. I honestly thought I would get more votes, so when the third Coach vote came, I got really nervous. My hands started sweating."

Why do you say they had epically bad Tribal Councils?

"I mean, Albert could never have won it ... but they specifically said tell us the truth and Albert could not give Brandon a straight answer. But Coach, I think actually the jury was not decided. I think if Coach had said the right things he would've won it. Jeff even let us have closing statements, Ozzy said to him just own up. Whether or not Coach believes to this day that he played an honorable game, it was very obvious the jury wanted him to say, 'Look, I manipulated all of you.' But he couldn't say it, he couldn't admit that."

----

I agree with Sophie on this last point. Coach couldn't own his strategy and manipulation, so he gave up his shot.

I think the fact that she was hosed during FTC might have helped. From her TV Guide interview:

TV Guide Magazine: That last tribal council was kind of gnarly.
Clarke: I don't think you saw all the gnarl that was there! Everyone was lighting into everyone. I think the only comfort... well, there were two things that were comforting. One was that Coach was getting it much worse than I was. Albert was getting it much worse than both of us. And I had champagne in my water bottle from the breakfast, so that was calming my nerves as well.

And I had champagne in my water bottle from the breakfast, so that was calming my nerves as well

With this one statement I became a Sophie fan.

I think that she was probably just confident but came off the wrong way in her interview. But yeah -- Coach just couldn't own up that he was manipulating people. That's part of his nature, I'm afraid.