but if Cochran plays it up and is able to convince them he's voting for a Sav (ozzy keith) and they think the Savs don't have an idol they don't think they need the idol and will save it for later. Coach could be one to argue to save it for when HE needs it not Albert

I've been burned a few times this season by misdirection of the insider clips. The editing of the show itself has been very straightforward, but the insider clips have usually been used as misdirection...

Krautboy

The key to the next boot, I think, are the HIIs. It hardly matters which dueler wins and returns to the game, Savaii and Upolu merge at parity; Savaii prefers Ozzy the hero to Christine simply because Ozzy is one of their own. (Cochran, cast in the Judas role, wouldn't mind if Ozzy lost, which would allow him to keep control of the HII, so that is a factor.) Both tribes have HIIs and are prepared to use them if need be. Savaii has a disinformation campaign in place to make Upolu think their HII was just played to boot Ozzy and they probably haven't had time to find it again.

Savaii has to assume Upolu has the Upolu HII, Savaii should then split their vote and hope they can protect the right person playing their own HII. Upolu may feel comfortable not splitting their vote and would only need to play their HII, letting Savaii go first, if Savaii guesses correctly and covers the one target. (In this circumstance it would actually make more sense for Upolu to retain their HII and take the hit, one of them would be out in any case but they would retain the HII for the next round.)

If Upolu splits their vote, however, it becomes a matter of how the votes are split (3-3, 4-2) and how the HIIs are played. Everyone is at risk with the exception if the winner of Individual Immunity.

The post-show promo was clearly made to be a non-reveal as to whether there would be a merge, which basically means yes there will be a merge.

To add to that Dabo, I think that the targets for both tribes may be a little obscured because of the HII situations. I think that obvious players like Albert, Coach, or Ozzy will probably not be targeted because of the high probability they will be carrying the idol when vote time comes up. I am looking for an outside the box boot this week like Rick, Sophie, or maybe Whitney form Ozzy's tribe if his plans don't work

VOTE NAKED 2004

I have to consider that the bootee may just be "an outside the box" bootee as well. I really think the plan is going to work out positively for the Savaii. Jiffy teased that the the next move is going to be "game changing". Well, in order for the move to be "game changing", the Savaii's must one up the Upolu's. The Upolu's are the very unified tribe and they have the momentum. So, if they send a Savaii to RI, then it's more of the same...Upolu has the continued momentum. So, game changing must refer to Savaii going one up....

I am thinking either Albert or Rick at this point....I think Coach is here for long term, I don't think he's headed to RI. I think that they would target one of the guys first. I think Brandon could be targeted, but I feel like he will out last Albert and Rick as well. For me, I think the edits so far support them going mid game, rather than late game. Clearly, one of them, imo, will be blindsided, as will the entire Upolu tribe! (And, they think that God is only on their side???)

Since you bring up the God on their side thing, which is a pet peeve of mine because God doesn't care about game shows (Matty, whom I liked because he is a good kid, wasn't saying such sacreligeous b.s., he was just praying to God for strength & for his will to be done, which I can accept because that isn't the same thing as "praying to win" a game), I think all that is going to bite them in the butt (as it should, IMO).

To me it seems like reality TV show editors don't really like the religious angle and Coach was pretty over the top with his praying to his Father God. I agree, it is going to bite them in the butt.

I've been leaning toward Albert. Albert seems like a bit of a naif to me. He unnecessarily shared the idol clue with Coach and Sophie, and then didn't mind when Coach found the hii and kept custody of it. I could see him trusting that Cochran is flipping, and leaking information about the Upolu hii to Cochran.

Plus his facetime took an upswing in Eps 5 and 6, then he was barely shown last night -- we know that's an oft-used pre-boot editing pattern.

Great points, Brownroach...I haven't been paying attention to the confessionals lately. That's a very ominous sign for Albert, imho...

I agree that Albert really isn't given much. He found the clue and than Coach "shared" it with them. We didn't see his reaction at all to wanting to expose it to the rest of the tribe. He's not playing a very smart game, imo. And, he lost in the power struggle with Coach regarding booting Mikayla....

The other factor that pushes me toward favoring Albert over Rick (whom I can see is also a likely boot) as the boot is his words about "you can fake loyalty, you can't fake strength." While he was referring to Edna, it also makes me think that the other player who can't fake strength, but can fake loyalty (John) is the one who makes his words prophetic. John's double agent act (faking loyalty to Upolu at merge because he is on the outs with Savaii) is going to work.

Oooh, another indicator that Albert is the first merge boot. Remember Ozzy saying after Stacey giving it up at the duel that the core 3 were Coach, Albert & Sophie that if Coach is smart he'd get rid of Albert that Jim used to get Keith & Whitney to go along with the Elyse boot? Wouldn't it be fun if Ozzy & the rest of Savaii now turned around and got rid of Albert, the "smart" thing to do? Survivor loves its irony.

This season the editing has been very straightforward, with very little misdirection. What we see is usually what we get…the next episode.

This week we saw Upolu come together in prayer, a “rejuvenated tribe”, a united “family”. This suggests they will stay united and strong after the merge. On the Savaii it has been all about Ozzy’s plan and Cochran’s role as the “Trojan Horse”. Cochran’s edit has evolved into that of the villan. Last week he joked about Ozzy to the others and referred to him acting like a ”stupid B####h”. This week in the confessionals we see Cochran taking credit for the Ozzy’s strategy and gloating about Ozzy’s idol, as if they were both his.

As FlowerPower noted:

Well, I am one happy girl. I am feeling more and more that Savaii is going to pull this whole thing off. Jeff's tout sealed the deal for me. I really feel strongly that Ozzy will indeed win the duel and beat Christine. I also feel he'll be returned with the merge that is announced right after the duel. Ozzy told Christine that they all voted for Cochran, but the little roach had the HII and played it to bounce Ozzy. He will stick to this story and tell the people that come to watch the duel, which should be both tribes.....Therefore, it will appear that clearly Cochran is on the serious outs...I can't help but to wonder if one of the Upolu's will actually approach Cochran....?

This will set up Cochroach jumping ship to the Upolu's. He will end up being the Trojan Horse. I think this plan will work! Albert's words of how easily loyalty is faked will come to bite the Upolu's in the butt. I think that most likely Albert will be the one burned. At the beginning of the show, when they spoke of RI at the very first gathering, I remember that Albert was focused on...he is the likely target, and he may feel a bit too comfortable to give up their team idol. I think that the Upolu's will be falsely led into believing the scenario. They will all vote for Ozzy or Jim or Keith, whoever doesn't win the IC....then, the person that they target will play Ozzy's idol, and the Savaii's will target Albert.
Yes, I think this plan will work!

Cochran has been edited as the villain. Everyone on the tribe was ready to vote him out, but Ozzy stepped in for the good of the tribe and took his place. Cochran will now live to see the merge, but do you think he feels that his position on the Upolu tribe has improved? He is still at the bottom of the pecking order if Savaii gains control of the game after the merge.

If, as FlowerPower suggests, the Upolu approach Cochran and he discusses the possibility of “jumping ship”. What would Cochran “the villain” do? He has the idol, he has the Upolu vying for his attention, and he has an opportunity to make a “big Survivor move”. What would he have to lose, if he wanted to shake up the game?

As I posted else where, the source for the Trojan Horse information is Maxx Fisher...and it's Maxx's comment..."It seems like a lot could go wrong", that makes me thing something WILL go wrong. If you look back at Maxx's editorial comments, I think you'll find that they consistently contain additional clues. Maxx has told us that he knows a few things about the overall outcome of the game. Not sure if it's intentional, but I think some of his insider knowledge comes out in some of his off-handed comments.

Since I think Maxx has told us something will go wrong, the most likely source of the problem is Cochran. He is at the center of the Trojan Horse plan, he is the one Ozzy has given the idol, he is the one everyone else was ready to vote out until Ozzy volunteered to go to Redemption Island. If something goes wrong, Cochran will probably be involved.

Upolu is much more united going into the merge. Ozzy is trying to keep Savaii even at the merge, and it's up to Cochrane, the Trojan Horse, to gather the information needed to give Savaii the advantage.

What could go wrong?

Cochrane could get to TC and decide to keep the Idol for himself...Upolu could suspect Cochrane is a double agent and give him false information about their vote...Cochrane could decide he's tired of being at the bottom of the Savaii pecking order and consider one of those "big survivor moves" he's talked about in his confessionals...or votes could cancel when the idols get played and Savaii loses on the revote.

Not sure how things will play out, but when you consider the complexity of the plan, Cochran’s bruised ego, and Maxx telling us..."It seems like a lot could go wrong", I think something will go wrong.

Ozzy will come back into the game, challenge ready. Ozzy is the odds on favorite to win Individual Immunity. In that scenario, Ozzy won’t need the Hidden Immunity back, so it may stay in Cochran’s hands going to TC.

Who would Upolu target? Cochran is probably jealous of Jim’s strategic prowess, and if asked by Upolu, as a double agent, he would probably suggest Jim as a first boot target. Keith and Jim both fit the merge target profile, but Jim has had the confessionals talking about how happy he was that Ozzy had the target on his back, because that took it off of him. How ironic, if Ozzy were to win immunity!

I agree with Maxx, that a lot could go wrong, so my choice for this week’s boot is most likely Jim.

Krautboy

LAST EDITED ON 10-27-11 AT 08:54 PM (EST)

Some points of disagreement:

First, Ozzy is the Trojan Horse, not John. John even referred to Ozzy as the "Trojan Horse." John is the double agent, which is not the same thing. A Trojan Horse is a perceived gift that actually leads to one's downfall. In this case, the "gift" is the false info that Ozzy gives Upolu at the duel which, if the Upolu accept, will lead to their downfall. A double agent sent in to get intel is not the same thing.

Second, Maxx specifically stated his words about "a lot could go wrong" were his own opinions and not based on any info he had. So, IMO, those words should not be taken as any kind of clue.

Finally, the "plan" to which Maxx was referring when he said the above ^^^ is not the actual plan. While Maxx has been GREAT with spoiling the big picture (who wins duel, which tribe wins IC, who gets boot, Ozzy asking to go to RI to "save" his tribe's merge numbers) he has made some mistakes on little stuff -- maybe getting details confused. In this case, according to Maxx, the plan was that Ozzy was going to say his tribe wanted him out, he had already burned his HII to save himself at the TC before this last one & Savaii finished what they started by booting him and that Ozzy was going to present himself as an ally to Upolu. This "plan" is the one Maxx referred to when he said (based on his own opinion as he admits, not as a clue) "that a lot could go wrong."

However, as we now know, this wasn't the plan. Ozzy came up with the much more sensible (and easy to remember) plan that the reason he was booted is because while the entire Savaii tribe voted John, sneaky little John had found the HII, played it to save himself & Ozzy got booted via the idol bounce. This sets up not Ozzy as a potential ally for Upolu, but John. And this is where John being the double agent comes in -- being presented as a believable outcast from his tribe, Upolu will view him as someone easy to "flip."

eta: and I personally disagree that the promo of John was him actually gloating. IMO, it is going to turn out he is playing the "court jester" (as he described himself) and providing comic relief while he rehearses his "role" as double agent with Upolu. John knows it was all Ozzy's plan & he didn't "get" anything. He's just role-playing as the "evil villain" who turns on Savaii. IMO, the reason it was shown to us is merely misdirection to build suspense as to whether Ozzy's plan will work.

LAST EDITED ON 10-27-11 AT 09:58 PM (EST)

KB- I always love to hear your take on things. However, after listening to Cochran's confessional at TC last week, and knowing that he is a student of the game, I find it hard to believe he would go against his own tribe. When writing down his vote last week, he thanked Ozzy for going to Redemption Island and admitted he was proud to be a part of the biggest plot in 22 seasons of Survivor. He is a student of the game and as such, I don't see him abandoning ship for the Upolos, where he must know that he surely, would be the low man on the totem pole, plus he would be forever known as a Judas, or traitor. I don't think he wants that label. However, you (and Maxx) are right - alot can go wrong, and most likely, it will involve Cochran. But, I just don't see him jumping ship now.

ETA: If you are commenting on Maxx's side remarks, we must bring up Rick's name. Why would Maxx bring him up randomly like that? I think he could be voted out this week as the Upolos might consider letting Albert use the Hii.

@ Scarlett: When asked about the Rick comment over at Sucks, Maxx said that his wife picked a random survivor for him to comment about, it was not a spoiler, just an offhanded comment.

@KB: I like that you are looking at all sides, but I agree with Kiki in that Cochran won't flip, yet. He will eventually when he thinks the time is right, in order to advance in the Savaii 6 he needs to. He will do so when it is an odd number, and when someone is at RI that can beat the person he flips on.

For now, he wants Savaii strong, he needs Savaii strong. He will stay true to them and bide his time.

As far as Savaii is concerned for this weeks boot they don't really care who it is that goes as long as it is an Upolu. They will try to target a strength, but if they have any doubt about the idol and who it will protect, they will pick somebody weaker in the middle and be happy about getting the numbers edge.

I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl

but I agree with Kiki in that Cochran won't flip,

Alert the media! KO & I agree! LOL

I've agreed with you before

You should check out my episode summary in Bashers, yes I bashed Ozzy, but I bashed Cochran too

I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl

I think that Cochran doesn't want to go down in Survivor history as another Brandon Quinton. Turn on your tribe and get voted out the following TC. Didn't work out for John Fincher either.

If Cochran had any kind of rapport with Upolu, but I don't see it.
The only Upolu player who could possibly relate to Cochran would be Sophie. Coach might pretend to take him on as The Wiz v. 2.0, but he wouldn't mean it.

Cochran should know that his own tribe is the best bet. If I were in his place and did want a Savai'i gone, I'd gun for Keith. Jim has a pact with John, Ozzy has approached John, Dawn and John relate ... but Keith has been steadily anti-Cochran, and he is a physical threat. I doubt John has any liking for either Keith or Whitney.

But I think a Upolu will bite the dust.

>ETA: If you are commenting
>on Maxx's side remarks, we
>must bring up Rick's name.
> Why would Maxx bring
>him up randomly like that?
> I think he could
>be voted out this week
>as the Upolos might consider
>letting Albert use the Hii.
>

I just want to pass on some clarifactions from Maxx here. Unfortunately he feels like he can't even broach an opinion because everyone takes it as a spoiler lol. Poor Maxx.

Firstly, the "lots could go wrong comment" was not a spoiler or even intended as one. He told us that. it was really just an innocent observation.

With the Rick thing he was trying to make that very point (that he can't offer opinions any more) so he asked his wife for a random survivor name to use as an example. They don't come much more random than Rick. That wasn't a spoiler either.

I just didn't want you guys deliberating something that wasn't meant as a clue.

Thanks for enlightening us Modesty! Maybe we should suggest to Maxx that he label his comments.

"Spoilers" and "Opinion"

He is always welcome to come here with us and offer his opinions along with the rest of us!

LAST EDITED ON 10-28-11 AT 08:00 AM (EST)

Way to think outside the box, KB! Always appreciate that logical approach from you. You are amazing at logic! I must admit, alot could go wrong. The biggest thing that could go wrong would be that somehow Ozzy is out again. Just like Matt. Something, that maybe we should consider...

If Ozzy gets out, I am sure, one way or the other, that Cochran would indeed have something to do with it. So far everyone has come up with plans that Cochran has the good fortune to join in and hide behind. Jim with the Semhar and the Elyse boots, which favors him. Then Ozzy with the volunteering to go to RI, which also saves him. He is content to slither around, under everyone else's plan to get to the end.

Cochran is thrilled to be keeper of the idol, and he's letting his imagination run wild with it. But, he will return it immediately. While Cochroach says he's always been the outcast in his tribe, and that he doesn't want to be a hero, clearly, in my mind, that's secretly exactly what he wants. He wants to be an "Ozzy", he wants to be loved and remembered for his Survivor game. He is desperate to be a hero, and not the one that's ostracized. In episode one, he asked to be called by his last name, just like all the greats!

This Trojan Horse plan is perfect for him. It is finally his chance to shine and to be adored by his tribe. It is his chance to save the day, and their game. I still believe for the move to be game changing it must be Savaii that lands on top with the boot of a Upolu. One Upolu that it will NOT be is Edna. It will be game changing for the Savaii tribe, as well as for the Upolu tribe, but especially for Cochroach. This move could take him from Zero to Hero...

Besides, I don't think Cochroach has the cahones to turn on his tribe....he's afraid of his own shadow out there, really. But, this chance to shine is something that will save face, and he must feel like it's his one big chance. It's his big chance to REDEEM himself WITHOUT going to RI...he told us he does. not. want. to. go. there. If he betrays his tribe he is still at the bottom of the Upolu totem pole. But, if he saves his tribe and their game, he is at the top of the heap.

fwiw...ps. Thanks Blind Freddy and Modesty for keeping us up to date on the Max thoughts. I was hoping it was just his thoughts and not clues to future happenings.

With little else to go on at this point, I'm on board with KB for a Jim boot. Jim hasn't gotten the edit he deserves this season as a real player and smart manipulator. He was the most consistant in confessionals, one per every half-hour of program, until this week when he dropped to one for the whole hour, when things weren't under his control for once and he wasn't comfortable with Ozzy's plan.

Another Cochran goof, perhaps, in he reveals too much to Upolu and they realize what a sharp player Jim actually is. Ozzy should have painted Jim as the weasel who played the HII to save Cochran and blindside Ozzy.

I was not sure where to discuss this but thought here was as good as any. If it belongs in a different thread let me know and I will post there.

Why could Cochran win? He definitely is not seen as a leader - strategist – etc on his current tribe.

But – by going over to Upolo and doing his Double Agent / Trojan Horse (don’t want to get either Michael or Kiki wound up) successfully he could win all of their votes for strategic play.
Boot Ed

I don't see it either, but I believe the impression of a Cochran win comes from the amount of attention he has received and the underdog angle to his story. His tribe likes him well enough but he isn't MVP in any way yet. If he can suddenlly turn on his game and bring his tribe back from behind the eight ball with a string of smart decisions, he could maybe pull it off.

Or if he somehow gets to Final with two Upolu, gets all five Savaii votes, the four Upolu votes won't even matter. Given a choice in a mixed F3 the people on the jury would tend to favor someone from their original tribes (except for a Randy). That would suggest some sort of Cesternino game, but I don't think that's possible when there hasn't been a tribal switch, he has to come up with a better plan.

LAST EDITED ON 10-28-11 AT 12:14 PM (EST)

I think most people would say this belongs in the edit thread, although it is still spec at this point, so I'm not sure were it goes.

But that is why people think he can win -- John has consistently been given credit for "strategy" that isn't his (see: the Elyse boot). The editors couldn't hide that the Trojan Horse plan is ALL Ozzy, but the editors (and others) are going to pretend it was John's because he has a role in it.