With less than a week until the premier of S23, it’s time to think about who may be the first player voted to Redemption Island…

A strong argument can be made for Savaii losing the first Immunity Challenge and going to TC in EP1.

The vidcaps and Kona Timestamp Theory being the strongest evidence in support.

So, if we assume Savaii (red tribe) goes to TC, who is most vulnerable and what evidence might support your speculation?

The Savaii Tribe:

Ozzie, Anthony, Dawn, Elyse, Jim, John, Keith, Semhar and Whitney.

Clues?

Jeff Probst made his most negative assessment about Semhar, describing her as…”She’s gone”…the question is, does it happen this week or shortly after?

These shots of Whitney might be a clue that she stays around a little longer…at least until the episode when the cast gets their swimsuits:

Whitney with yellow bra and later…with bikini swimsuit top. Survives past the first episode?

Here we see Anthony and Dawn in front of some unidentified structure. It appears to be too elaborate to be their shelter, so might this be at a future challenge or reward?

What is the structure behind them?

And then there is this shot of Keith with a catamaran…is this pre-show or a future shot of a reward?

As for the challenges, the weakest men appear to be John and Anthony, with Dawn and Semhar as the least valuable of the women. Will there performance in the first IC be a factor at TC?

Krautboy

• RE: S23 EP1 Boot Discussion,Belle Book, 08:43 PM, 09-08-11
• RE: S23 EP1 Boot Discussion,kiki_k, 00:45 AM, 09-09-11
• RE: S23 EP1 Boot Discussion,Flowerpower, 07:41 AM, 09-09-11
  • RE: S23 EP1 Boot Discussion,Krautboy, 02:25 PM, 09-09-11
    • RE: S23 EP1 Boot Discussion,Flowerpower, 03:47 PM, 09-09-11
• John, Dawn, Elyse or Semhar?,Krautboy, 04:55 PM, 09-09-11
  • RE: John, Dawn, Elyse or Semhar?,Flowerpower, 09:42 PM, 09-09-11
• RE: S23 EP1 Boot Discussion,suzzee, 11:33 AM, 09-10-11

I think Semhar is the best choice for the first boot. Not that I mind -- at least it's not Edna.

First, I have to say I am SO happy to see all you great people here. I swear, this place & the people in it are the biggest reason I'm still watching Survivor. Plus, I really can never get into Big Brother, so by Fall I'm jonesing for reality tv comps. LOL

I'm never good at the beginning of the season (not that I'm Rain Man later on) mainly because I don't know most of their names yet, but I agree with KB. Based on what we have, I'm going with Semhar first boot or RI resident, whatever <rolls eyes>

LAST EDITED ON 09-09-11 AT 10:33 AM (EST)

Thrilled to see you started this thread, KB! I have some things to add as well here...Examining the shots that you posted...

First, clearly Whitney is in a bathing suit! Definitely this could be after they get their suits. But, I am not 100% convinced this wasn't pre-show...she does wear one of those pink bands on her wrist, as is seen in the top shot, as well as a black one, also seen. I think you can see it on the same wrist in the bathing suit shot. Also, I don't know if that is her buff on her wrist or not....could be her scrunchy for her hair? But, I have more evidence that Whitney survives past the first episode...

Next you have a pic of Mark Anthony, Dawn and we can see Keith's shirt behind them. I have added more pictures of the Redemption arean, which is where they first report to...they arrive there via their rafts at the start of the show....note the structure in the following vidcaps...Look above Coach's head in the first vidcap....note the structure with the thatching roof...I believe this shot of Mark Anthony is from the start of the show. Note their nice clean clothing as well. See when Ozzy does his group hug, Mark Anthony is wearing his buff the same way...

As you noted in the vidcap chronology thread, the tribes first arrive to Redemption Island via rafts. I don't know, perhaps this is a later shot, or they could have been given catamaran's after the initial gathering at redemption island....food for thought!

I was going to save this for the SOTS, but with this thread it's perfect to post it in...

I think these vidcaps with Whitney and others in them are possibly from a future challenge....I got them from the commercial that aired with Whitney...clearly they take place at the challenge arena...Whitney is unwrapping a blackish strap in the first three shots. We have seen nothing like this in any of the other first ep challenge shots.

As you look at the vidcap below, Left to Right, Note Mark Anthony’s head on the far right of the image, then see Keith’s yellow shirt in front of Mark Anthony’s head, see Keith’s shoulder is obscuring Mark Anthony’s lower left chin, then there is a pole, then we see Jim’s head and peachy colored shirt, and finally on the far right the group as we view it is Ozzy standing in front. They are all on the mat, waiting and watching Whitney at this point.

Note Jim is wearing the peachy shirt and long khaki slacks.

Note Whitney’s hair is pulled back with the first three frames in the black strap challenge, now in the next frame she’s got something red, and her hair is not pulled back...

Also, note the pinkish bands on her left arm. The lowest photo could be from the same challenge as the black strap, or from even a different challenge. In the lower frame something had been tied to that banister and she got it off...definitely an "action shot" during a challenge.

So, IF these are not from a challenge in the first episode, then they are clearly shots of a future one, meaning that from Savaii, Whitney, Ozzy, Mark Anthony, Keith, and Jim all survive the first TC.

That would leave one of John Cochran, Dawn, Elyse, or Semhar as the first boot. I agree with Jiffy and others, I think Semhar bombs it in the basketball throw, and is TOAST.

FWIW

Nice work Flower! Great find...those are clearly from a future challenge. Your analysis of the vidcaps leaves us with John, Dawn, Elyse and Semhar.

While Semhar is the front runner, we should try to find a little more supporting evidence...

Krautboy

Yes, you are right, KB. I am not 100% sold on Semhar at this point either.

When I study the vidcaps above from the Whitney commercial and the shots of the new challenge, there is some solid red in the frame as well, to the left of Ozzy and to the right of the pole...I can't help wonder if that could be a part of John Cochran's shirt, or is that a part of a buff? It looks more solid in color to me....thoughts?

FlowerPower has helped us narrow down the primary boot choices to four.

I have listed the players self assessment, the EW writers take on each, Jeff’s sound bite, Verucsalt’s assessment from her editing thread and the vidcaps that show these four interacting at camp.

John Cochran, 24, Red Team – Savaii
Current residence: Washington, D.C.
Occupation: Harvard law student

John Cochran says: "Ninety-nine percent of my game plan is adaptability. I like having the appearance of talking about my insecurities or embarrassing stories, not to the extent that people are annoyed by it. The more open you are with people, the more open they are with you. I will be calculating in what I will reveal."

Our take: He is a huge fan and knows his "Survivor" trivia. He is not as athletic as some of the others. If his confidence goes up, he could make it to the final three. They might let him stick around because he is not a threat and is an all-around good guy.

Jeff says: "He's hilarious."

Verucasalt says: “ Who has any doubt that this contestant will be given top billing as long as they can? As long as he does not physically bring his tribe to their knees, he can do amazingly well and we will know immediately by his edit the investment made in him. Non threatening by all, possibly extremely smart (and smart enough to know he shouldn't show how smart he is) he is most definitely someone who will be highlighted. The question is knowing whether it is due to "character" or end game.”

John and Keith bonding and perhaps forming an early alliance.

John working well with the other males.

John relating well to others.

Dawn Meehan, 41, Red Team – Savaii
Current residence: South Jordan, Utah
Occupation: English professor at Brigham Young University

Dawn says: "I changed so much because I had gotten cut from 'Survivor.' I found the strength in me. I look completely different than I did. Now I can bench-press 170 pounds."
Our take: She is the mother of six adopted kids. She has the mental, physical and social skills to make it all the way. She is ready to win. Thing is, she might get too caught up in the game and be manipulated by the group.

Jeff Probst says: "She's excited."

Verucasalt says: “ A possible future Utah connection! The "mom" no doubt of the group. As discussed before, moms can do very well as long as they can keep up athletically and/or give everyone the sense of caretaking. There is nothing to indicate that she can't do well”


Dawn comfortable with the men and working side by side.

Elyse Umemoto, 27, Red Team – Savaii
Current residence: Las Vegas
Occupation: Dance team manager and go-go dancer

Elyse says: "I'm not the typical pageant girl or the typical Vegas girl. I'm not the typical anything. I know I am going to be strong in the physical challenges and even stronger at the social game. I'm not used to being out of my element. Having to survive out here will be difficult."

Our take: She is a personable, classy party girl and can be a bit of a fast-talking charmer. She'll do well because she seems competitive. She doesn't seem like a team player, so that might hurt her at the beginning of the game.

Jeff says: "She's trouble."

Verucsalt says: “There had to be one on this side also! Does she go in for the kill immediately with the males on this tribe? Does the "femme fatale" strategy work with her? We've seen the successes and failures of this strategy and it is usually readily apparent within the first couple of episodes.”

Elyse appears to be a quiet observer, but part of the larger group.

Semhar Tadesse, 24, Red Team - Savaii
Current residence: Los Angeles
Occupation: Spoken-word artist

Semhar says: "I'm from East Africa, and I lived there for a year during the war, so thought I could survive in this atmosphere. I definitely lived in the city when I lived in Africa, so they're in for a treat."

Our take: She'll be one of the first to go home. She doesn't have the determination and drive. She hasn't thought through her strategy as much as the others.

Jeff says: "She's gone."

Verucsalt says: “ I don't think that Semhar was casted due to her being someone who can "outlast" It appears that she may be characterization the producers wanted. The first episode will tell us more but on paper I don't see her outlasting anyone else on this tribe “

Semhar appears isolated and uninvolved

Semhar bringing up the rear of the Savaii tribe in the IC

After losing the IC and before TC, we see Semhar looking concerned, separated from the core group of Dawn, Elyse, Jim and Anthony.

Conclusions:

John appears to be secure in his place in the tribe. Humerous, pleasant and not threatening to the other males.

Dawn seems to relate well to both the men and women and able to carry her share of the load in both challenges and at camp.

Elyse will probably fly under the radar for as while. A quiet observer who can bond with both the younger and older tribe mates. Her absence from the vidcaps supports this view.

Semhar is the most vulnerable, based on the comments of Jeff, and Verucasalt. Their assessment is supported by the group vidcaps which show her to be on the outside of her tribe, not involved in camp and a liability in the challenges…

Krautboy

Great post, Krautboy!

I also find these pictures telling....

Often, in the editing, at the end of a challenge when they are gathered on the mat and Jiffy hands over the II to the winning team and generally says to the other tribe, I got nothin' for you, I'll see tomorrow night at TC where one of you will go home....

As Jiffy addresses the losing tribe on the mat, the camera flashes over several of the daws, and these zoom ins ALWAYS include our bootee. This is EXACTLY what I think these video captures are. Zoom ins of our losers on the mat post challenge. So, I think these shots are telling. There was also a glance over of Keith, as well as Mark Anthony, but we have already ruled them out. So, from this evidence I think we can rule out Elyse.

They are in order as they appeared in the tvguide promo. First John Cochran was noted, then Semhar, and then Dawn with the real zoom in. I have to say, that zoom in on Dawn and with her at the end, it really gives me some pause....

I also wanted to make another observation regarding the future challenge shots of the Savaii tribe that I posted in this thread. I noted the red to the left of Ozzy and to the right of the pole in this pic....

When I compared it to this picture....

...I noted that Whitney is wearing a RED belt. I think the red in the above picture is someone else on Savaii wearing a red belt as well. Also, this picture...

I think Whitney is taking OFF her belt here...? So, I believe that all of these pics are from the same future challenge.

That's some slick work KB & FP. Thank you for your insights and hard work guys.

OH NO!