And Matt might edge him out even for that. I have a feeling that there are a lot of Matt fans out there. Heck, Rooster is somewhat like Rupert's character, even he might get some votes.

Excellent SOTS FloPo!

Thanks for all you do around here. This week is another complicated one, but you've laid out the available information nicely. All we have to do is fill in the blanks.

Krautboy

Fan-Flowah-Tastic!

Yup appears to be alot of hooey to hide the boring bootee.

But still, I can hope.

You know, they have cried wolf SO many times with Phillip, that if he ever is the boot, we'll probably miss it... It will be fun anyway...!

Nice job of pulling together a tough week, FloPo! Especially since the threads have been much larger this season than in recent seasons, so it's taken longer to go through all the stuff to pull out for this SOTS...

One thing that I haven't seen mentioned so far from the limited scanning I've done (my apologies if it's already been pointed out, just didn't see it here on the SOTS) is that it appears there is a thin, black headband in that picture of the blonde at the side where Jiffy is chucking the clue -- it seems rather conclusive to me that this is Andrea:

LAST EDITED ON 04-25-11 AT 10:27 PM (EST)

Super job, so complete and organized -- so much so that it jogged my brain to think a bit more.

What if the twist isn't a big bust?

What if there is a quick quiz IC in that package (combo RC)

AND the last Zap won it?
Then it's not a no-brainer vote and an Ome must go with no chance to scramble.

Also, what about that food? Who gets to eat it? Those spec'd to be semifinals are on the loser bench, and there's not enough time to have eaten before Jeff tosses that, so does winner choose 1 or 2 to eat?

Grant could choose Rob and maybe Ashley and/or Andrea eat?
That would shake people up? I say Rob because he's not visible on the bench when Jeff tosses, and neither is Ashley.

What if there is a quick quiz IC in that package (combo RC)

AND the last Zap won it?
Then it's not a no-brainer vote and an Ome must go with no chance to scramble.

Also, what about that food? Who gets to eat it? Those spec'd to be semifinals are on the loser bench, and there's not enough time to have eaten before Jeff tosses that, so does winner choose 1 or 2 to eat?

Grant could choose Rob and maybe Ashley and/or Andrea eat?
That would shake people up? I say Rob because he's not visible on the bench when Jeff tosses, and neither is Ashley.

I thought we could examine these thoughts that OFG has posted.... Let's play "what if".

Alright, let's start the discussion in a chronological order. Clearly, someone is going to win the IN at the IC and be offered what is under the covered dishes. I agree, that there is more there than one person can eat, and the winner will be put in the position of having to choose 1 or 2 to share. I love it when jealousy rears its ugly head....(Remember Jane last season?) If Grant wins then yes, he'll probably include Rob and Ashley, his sleeping buddy. If Andrea wins, would she pick Rob and Grant? Or, Ashley and Rob? I agree with OFG who has noted that neither Rob or Ashley is seen on the bench...and, Ashley was seen on the bench earlier.

What if Rob were to win this? Who would he choose? WE see Natalie is not one of them...nor Phillip? So, Grant and Ashley? Andrea?

Could Andrea, seen sitting on the short bench close to Jiffy as he makes the toss, be there because she was picked to share the food, and not because she's won the IN? If she is picked, I can see her name come up as a boot choice later. Or, if she wins the IN again, Rob could bring her name up. I remember the reason that Grant wanted to keep her over Matt was that she was "good" in challenges....hmmmm? She also has the ominous "insert" into the vidcaps...(nod to CTGirl

Food for thought...Regardless, some are going to be left out, and that always gives pause to those that are NOT chosen.

Now, onto "the package". As OFG and others have noted, there is usually some opportunity given to the daws so that they can try to win immunity. It could likely be a quiz. The package will most likely be opened after the first boot. Which, imo, will be Ralph. That leaves the door open for Steve. He could possibly win a quiz...I have serious doubt though...But, if he does, I would think that the Ometepe's would indeed vote out the "blessed, kooky, and nuttiest" player ever... Clearly, Steve, Ashley, Grant would...But, what about Andrea? Would she vote for the whack job? I don't know, he gives her options, as well. Rob, Natalie....I don't think they'd vote for Phillip....and, we know that Phillip would most likely vote for Ashley.

We have to consider a Rob boot here as well, and a possible Grant boot? We hear them both talking about timing...They are both in the boot candidate catagory. Will the former Ometepe's wake up? As we see Andrea "waking up". (Thanks VG!)

I don't think that they will "wake up" this week, as I've already noted. I don't think the spa girls or Phillip would vote for Rob at this point, nor would Grant...they are all still riding the coattails. So, I think Rob will be safe.

Could the Ometepe girls and Phillip/Rob turn on Grant, at this point?

Here's what I posted after reviewing the first promo...

Notice, there are NO pictures of Andrea on the radar...that's a good thing for her. (Does Andrea's name come up when Phillip possibly wins the IN?) There is an ominous picture of Ralph...Steve receives the "package", and seems to be back to narrating. Will Rob be able to predict a double boot? I think he could...they ALL are aware of the numbers. There is no doubt that Rob will indeed take his HII, a twist is not going to be a "good thing".

Preliminary thoughts, Ralph is toast. Steve could be toast as well. Phillip looks like he's in trouble, but his starring role could spell his demise either this week, or next....

*Also wanted to note there are some shots of Grant as well, could he be a boot decoy here? Or, could he be our second boot...

"It's all about the right person at the right time." We see Grant dominating the log roll. If he wins and picks some to eat, it's going to call attention to him as being so dominant in the challenges. Perhaps he does NOT win immunity at the second portion of the TC, and he's vulnerable. We even hear him saying that, it's all about the timing....

I am beginning to have great "Grant vibes" regarding his boot. It all depends on if the last Zap standing can win the immunity offered.

If he is vulnerable, it's as good a time as any. They would all know they can NOT beat him at the final challenges. Rob will be very suspicious of "the package". I think when we see him here with Grant and Ashley....

They perhaps discuss Andrea as the boot choice if there is a second boot...at least that's what he'll tell Grant. That's why we hear in the promo...While Andrea could be scheduled for an early departure.. Later, he'll spread the word if Grant is vulnerable without immunity, we need to take him out....

If Ralph is the first votee off, and the "package" does present an immunity opportunity that Grant does NOT win, then this is as good a time as any to vote him out.....food for thought...

I think the clues and previews are too anemic for the twist to be throwing a serious monkey-wrench into anyone's plans. If the Ometepes were forced to vote out one of their own this week there'd be a lot more buzz, imo. Even the clue about Andrea is limper than such clues usually are -- we don't even see or hear anyone verbalize about why she'd be in trouble.

Great SOTS Again FP!!

I wanted to put this here...I got my TV Guide for next week yday and it says for May 4th ep:

Well, it had to happen sometime. The Ometepe tribe starts to fall apart as all of the castaways are pushed to their limits in one brutal challenge.

I think this tells us that Steve and Rooster are gone...now if we only knew the order bc KB is being strict!!

Wow, that's enlightening, emy! Thanks for posting. I agree, sounds like it will go down as my first choice...dumb and dumber...

Well, not necessarily.

Just because it says the Ometepe tribe starts to fall apart doesn't mean there isn't a Zappy left. Perhaps in the double TC, the entire Ometepe tribe voted for Grant. They're still unified and don't fall apart until the following episode when the remaining Zappy wins the brutal challenge. I'm just sayin'.

True. In Vanuatu the all-female alliance broke down before they eliminated the last man.

And the last man (Chris) went on to win it all.

I though of that too C but I think the "Well it had to happen sometime" strongly suggests that it's what has to happen next week bc only Omes are left

Take it FWIW

LAST EDITED ON 04-26-11 AT 05:00 PM (EST)

My first thought, as well, was that it's just the Ometepes left and they're forced to start eating each other.

But... it could also be that the "Well it had to happen sometime" is in reference to a Zap *finally* winning immunity and saving himself and forcing Ometepe to eat itself, resulting in a bit of infighting as they had to choose on the spot who to boot, and there's a new-found split in the tribe just discovered after the boot took place and they're walking back to camp. The words "it had to happen..." could easily have meant what just happened the previous night as it could mean whatever happens in the current episode.

A Dumb and Dumber boot matches with Steve's earlier words: "I hate a landslide." He should have good reason too hate them even more.

From what we know of Rob, he isn't like Tina and Todd who both did "pagonging interruptus". The only reason Shii Ann stayed over a Chappy was because she won Immnunity.

Steve and/or Ralph will need to win the second immunity to stay. A quiz wouldn't favor Rooster, but maybe Steve? Doubtful.

Steve should go first because Ralph seems to have gotten a deal. With the buddy system, Rob couldn't have agreed to Ralph's proposal but he would certainly remind him of that during FTC: "Hey Ralph! Remember when you asked to stay? I couldn't say anything out loud but I did keep you."

I agree Corvis, they can still be unified and vote out one of their strongest competitors. The whole spec with Grant could happen this week. How many clues lead us to the Julie boot? But, this week, there are clues that lead to a Grant boot.

I think the spec is good, because they have to be thinking about getting rid of Grant. He could smoke them all at the end. If he's without immunity, he is indeed a target. While he may not go this week, we have to start looking for this kind of set up...

Personally, I'd love to see Grant make it to the end. He really has been Rob's best friend out there...I'd like Rob to have a win on his argument alone...just saying

Unanswered questions for Episode 11:

1. Phillip. He's having his best day ever? Why? Why do they show his feet? Is it simply that he's still in the game, and he's now found his bathing trunks? Is it because someone else tells him that they want to go to the end with him? What?

2. Andrea. "could be headed for an early departure". What is this all about? The more I think about it, the more I like the spec that she could be hurt....burned. Could it be possible that we see her sitting on the "short" bench, closest to Jiffy when he throws the "package" because she's hurt, and SITTING OUT the challenge? I believe it is a possibility....it's natural to think of booting the weakest/injured player...but, I do believe it will be misdirection. She'll stay.

3. Other questions that the promos pose...Phillip, is he playing everyone? I'd say he's in very good shape at this point. He's a magnet for drawing animosity from the other tribe. They will not vote for him in the end, or will they? At this point, I think everyone but Ashley would indeed like having Phillip sit next to them. I'd say Phillip has the easiest road to the finals?

Rob....will his former tribe wake up and vote him off, or is it his year to win it all? The question of the series, really. I don't think they will wake up in this episode. He's got them all believing that it's his goal to get them to the F6. And, they are most likely buying it.

What is Grant echoing Rob for, have they discussed the possibility of a 2nd boot at TC? I think, yes, they most likely have. Could Rob lead Grant to believe that they will vote out the wounded Andrea, OR, will he rally his tribe to vote out Grant if he is without immunity? I don't know. If Grant wins the IN, they may believe that he's immune if there is a second boot....most likely, it will be Steve and Ralph?

Thanks FloPo. I've been really busy this week and you do all the thinking for me. You're my Robfadda!

LAST EDITED ON 04-27-11 AT 12:58 PM (EST)

have they discussed the possibility of a 2nd boot at TC? I think, yes, they most likely have.

Don't forget that Jeff said they were thrown by the twist at TC. There must be some aspect of it that they were unprepared for.

I suppose it's conceivable that no one there saw the Cook Islands episode with the TC package, in which case they really would have no idea what to speculate.

ETA Jeff's exact quote from the EP 10 Q&A about this week:

"A twist at tribal council catches everybody off guard."

Well, if we are to believe that it catches everybody off guard then it should be a no brainer. Being caught off guard for the old Ometepe's would clearly lead, imo, to a
last Zap boot. What would really catch them off guard is if that last Zap could win immunity. That's the question.

It's hard to trust the hype -- last week's TC certainly didn't live up to Jeff's tweets. But I agree with you, FloPo, that a simple double boot alone seems too obvious and shouldn't catch everyone (esp. Rob) off guard. But an IC at TC probably would, esp. a quiz or something that anyone could win and then they'd have to quickly vote again. Personally I'm hoping it's something more than just a simple double boot because I don't think it's fair to not give the last Zap time to scramble and be an extra vote for a "big move."

P.S. Wanted to include the link for the "Version B" web promo that VG referenced was added recently. It's very OTT with the Robfather stuff again. And it's hard for me to even watch the snippet of Grant being led around by the hand by Rob because it's so pathetic. As FloPo mentions above, it is interesting how they show Andrea when the VO asks if Rob's tribe will "wake up".

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIIzj8Lnklo

Andrea is competing in the log roll, because she is standing waiting to compete while Rob & Grant match up ...

I don't think for a minute that she gets hurt.
Early departure -- just one of those discussions about letting go of someone early. She's doing too well at the challenges and there is still the Matt thing casting a shadow on her, as she wasn't the one who went and told Rob.

Her waking up -- well, I envision one scenario as a second F5 with Rob, Natalie, Andrea, Phillip and Matt as returnee. Andrea, Matt and Phillip vote out Rob.

The first two Ometepe boots will go to RI and that will be the end of their story, so I would spec that Ashley and Grant are those two, simply because they have been so little developed during the season.