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Original Message
"SurvivorBlowsTribe, Time To Vote: S22 ep10"
Posted by dabo on 04-19-11 at 10:22 AM
ATTENTION! See rule 1b for DIFFERENT instructions on duel voting.

ADVISORY: Vote threads are open to all who wish to participate and cast their votes, spoilers and non-spoilers alike. The posts initiating these threads contain no spoiler information other than perhaps referencing what has been revealed in TV promos for the upcoming episode. Non-spoilers, be advised that spoilers may include information in their posts here which you may not wish to read. Spoilers, please do not include spoiler information for future episodes, stick to the episode in question.

The Rules

1. Put the name of your choice for this week's boot in the subject heading.

This is easy, just erase where it says "Re: SurvivorBlowsTribe, Time to Vote..." and replace with your vote on which player will get the boot, e.g., "Phillip." Or, if you think this will be a two-boot week: "Phillip and Steve." It doesn't matter which order you put them in unless it matters to you.

This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately. Nicknames are tougher to tally unless they are really obvious without actually reading your post. Other things you want to vote on (who gets outed what, who wins what, who makes dirty rice), these should go in your post not in your subject line.

("Boot" defines as voted out of a tribe, either exiled to Redemption Island or, when Redemption Island is no longer a factor in the game, eliminated from the game. Quitters are also regarded as boots though whether they would be exiled or eliminated/disqualified is unknown. It is assumed that medical evacuees would be eliminated/disqualified without prejudice.)

1b. The process for voting on which Exile on Redemption Island will be eliminated from the game.

Place your elimination vote anywhere in the subject line with the boot vote. Place an "X" in front of the name of the exile you think will lose the duel and be eliminated from the game, as in XMatthew or XMike or XDavid. Alternately, should you wish to save space in the subject line, cast your vote using the exile's placement number determined by the time of their arrivals on Redemption Island, noted in the list below in this post. Exile 8, Matthew, would be X8. Exile 9, Miker, would be X9. Exile 10, David, would be X10.

This week for the 3-way duel, since we don't know whether it will be a double elimination or a single elimination, we will be using the finale style voting method for duel voting. You will be voting on who finishes third (last), who finishes second, and who finishes first (wins). Please use the following designations in casting these votes:

DM for David Murphy
MC for Mike Chiesl
ME for Matt Elrod

Place these votes in this format: 3rd/2nd/1st. So, for example, if you think David will finish third, Mike will finish second, and Matt will finish first, your vote should read "DM/MC/ME."

In the event that it is a double elimination, your third and second place picks would be those eliminated. In the event that it is a single elimination only your third place pick would be the one eliminated. Order matters.

1c. Returnees. I wouldn't worry about this one this week.

This section is to note that it is entirely possible for a player to be returned to the game immediately after a duel and subsequently be voted out again within the same episode. So an exile could also get the boot, both votes could be for exiles. Hence the importance of the X, please get in the habit.

2. Reply only to this post.

We like to keep our votes threads nice and straight.

EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES!

2b. But to change your vote (or add additional votes) reply to your own previous vote post.

Your new post heading should read, for example, "VOTE CHANGE: Rob." Or perhaps "VOTE CHANGE: Rob and Natalie" if you think it will be a two-boot week.

You should also use this process of replying to your own vote post to make additional votes, should you wish to vote for a boot but still think about it before you vote for an elimination, or vice versa.

3. This is not a discussion thread, do not treat it as such.

There are plenty of places on the forum to debate the merits of people's arguments, have discussions, have civil and polite disagreements, don't do it here.

But please feel free to discuss your vote in your own post, cast all the extra votes you want, tell us how much you hate this stupid horrible insane game-destructive RI twist, we're all interested in what you have to say. And KB wants your challenge votes for scoring purposes!

4. No graphics, particularly no sig pics.

If you must have a graphic make it pertinent to something. Thank you.

5. Have fun!

Or fake it if you have to.

The DAWS!

Murlonio (black) tribe

Andrea (Ometepe)
Ashley (Ometepe)
Grant (Ometepe)
Julie (Zapatera)
Natalie (Ometepe)
Phillip (Ometepe)
Ralph "Rooster" (Zapatera)
Boston Rob (Ometepe)
Steve (Zapatera)

Redemption Island

exile 8. Matthew (Ometepe, exile 2, Murlonio)
exile 9. Mike (Zapatera, Murlonio)
exile 10. David (Zapatera, Murlonio)

Eliminated

Francesca (Ometepe, exile 1)
Russell (Zapatera, exile 3)
Kristina (Ometepe, exile 4)
Krista (Zapatera, exile 5)
Stephanie (Zapatera, exile 6)
Sarita (Zapatera, exile 7)

Jury

none

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"Steve ME/DM/MC"
Posted by dabo on 04-19-11 at 10:43 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-20-11 AT 11:07 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 04-19-11 AT 12:11 PM (EST)

Just thought I'd put one up as an example. This means Steve gets voted out at Tribal; Matt finishes third in the duel, David finishes second, Mike wins. These are the votes I like at the moment anyway, may change my mind later.

Redemption Island sucks! Resolution of the racism issue depends on whether someone is actually wrong or Phillip is just playing the race card by mistake. With any luck it will resolve amicably and be all just a misunderstanding, that would be for the best.

ETA: No idea what the IC is but I'll go with Grant to win II.

Re-editing to include vote logic.

As for the duel, Matt is shown trailing behind Mike and David, who are close together. Mike is slightly ahead of David, checking his house of cards, both their attention is fully on task.

II is purely a guess. Unless there is a rebellion against Rob, a Zapatera will be the boot. No hint of rebellion in the wind, unfortunately. But Phil is going off and playing the race card, a touchstone issue that has to be resolved even if unfairly and by a boot. Ralph should be in trouble more than Steve or Julie but Steve seems to take lead in the "Rice War." So, Rob's choices are Phillip or Steve for Ometepe harmony (he doesn't care a bit about any other harmony). Booting Steve helps Rob's endgame as jury poison against Phillip goes to RI and from RI into the jury.

Jury announcement at arena gets Ometepe wheels turning, it doesn't really matter who goes to the jury. Matt going to jury helps Andrea's game as there can no longer be any fear that she and Matt can reunite if he returns from RI, but he has to know she voted party line to give him the boot the second time. Rob realizes jury announcement may prompt Omes to start being nice to remaining Zaps, so he just gets more paranoid.

"VOTE CHANGE: Boston Rob ME/DM/MC"
Posted by dabo on 04-20-11 at 04:39 PM
Yeah, it's a longshot, but all this "Rice Wars" stuff provides the perfect cover for a Boston Rob blindside. Special Agent Phil, Sleeper Agent Andrea, Brutus Assassinus Grant and the Zap3 playing their assigned roles to pull off.

THE BIGGEST BLINDSIDE EVER!

"Steve DM/ME/MC"
Posted by parathor on 04-19-11 at 11:21 AM
Steve vs. Phillip, Steve loses. Crazy trumps boring.

Ideally, at 9 (and 7, 5) you'd have to knock out someone in your alliance (and still have the numbers), but I don't see that happening with Rob's group... especially with everyone there guaranteed jury membership (or more).

Dave is done. He's NOT good at puzzles (Jeff fooled us!). Matt comes in second, but stays alive (I'm betting only 1 person leaves this episode, to make next episode more exciting as Rob pagongs for a few weeks... although, is it really a pagonging if Rob voted out a former Ometepe first?)

"Grant for immunity"
Posted by parathor on 04-20-11 at 04:26 PM
Forgot to mention the IC winner.
"Rooster DM/ME/MC"
Posted by emydi on 04-19-11 at 11:55 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-19-11 AT 03:07 PM (EST)

Steve is misdirection after Matt stays alive by coming in 2nd (I think David is first jury and Mike and Matt stay) Rob wants the strongest to try to beat Matt so T-Rex Steve stays


ETA:

Rob wins IC

"DM/MC/ME...Grant (IC)...Ralph"
Posted by Krautboy on 04-19-11 at 01:43 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-19-11 AT 01:47 PM (EST)

The next Zapatera will probably fall this week. If anything was going to happen to change that, it would have been hyped in the previews and promos, but instead we will get Redemption Island, and conflict over rice…no brilliant strategic moves anywhere to be seen.

Redemption Island will apparently have a winner and a loser, but at this point it is still unclear if one or two players are eliminated from the game.

The vidcaps of the spectators applauding politely could be after the first contestant wins, but before the other two competitors finish. The subdued reaction from both Ometepes and Zapatera’s would fit a Matt victory. Rob and Grant don’t want him to come back into the game (so they don't applaud) and the Zaps would rather see Mike or David win.

So, Matt probably wins the challenge. I’ll say Mike’s marine experience will make him calmer under pressure than David who will finish last.

1st Matt
2nd Mike
David 3rd

As Outfrontgirl pointed out so well, the editing of the promos for the Rice Wars, is misdirection intended to keep the focus off of the logical next boot. While Steve and Phillip are shown arguing, Ralph is not shown, but most likely involved as well.

Immunity Challenge…until we get more info, we’ll assume that Grant will continue to dominate.


While the outcome at TC is not really in question…a Zapatera will be sent to Redemption Island…the final battle of the Rice War should be very entertaining. Ralph, Steve and Phillip should all be in top form, but in the end, it’s still Ralphs’ turn to go…

TC Votee: Ralph

"Rooster DM/ME/MC"
Posted by kiki_k on 04-19-11 at 01:49 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-19-11 AT 01:51 PM (EST)

I'm co-signing KB & emydi's analysis. My only difference with KB's is, like emydi, I think Mike comes in "first" at the RI challenge & Matt second, but that's enough to keep Matt in & David becomes the first juror.

IC -- since we have absolutely no clues on this I'm going with Grant as well.

RI: First place: Mike
Second place: Matt
Third/out/first juror: David

IC: Grant

Boot: Rooster

eta: to make picks clearer.

"ME/MC/DM, Steve"
Posted by vince3 on 04-19-11 at 01:54 PM
I'm thinking it's Dave first, Matt 2nd, and Mike is ultra-toast and 3rd...

Barring any info on the Immunity Challenge, it's a safe bet to pick an Ome to win it, but which one...? I'll try Rob.


Rather than getting rid of Rooster this time around, Rob will grant Phillip's wish to shove Steve toward Redemption Island and the young lion(s) that inhabit it...

"Correction MC/ME/DM, Steve"
Posted by vince3 on 04-19-11 at 02:17 PM
to correctly reflect my picks... I'll be glad when one of Matt/Mike is off of RI...
"Indian Phil ME/MC/DM"
Posted by kingfish on 04-19-11 at 02:36 PM
Phil is shown on Meditation Rock, contemplating his departure. So he will be departing. Besides, with his racial outburst the RabFadda realizes that this loose cannon has to go before he ruins the grand plan.

From the promos Davids construction is obviously superior to Mikes, and Matt's is shown as in third place. Besides, Matt showed in the domino challenge that he is a little deficit when it comes to blocks.

I'm closing my eyes and throwing a dart to pick the IC winner. With the lights out. On a moonless/starless/overcast night. In a coal mine. And picking Steve to win, mainly because somehow he has to avoid being Pa-Boinked.

AND:

"Because Spoiler to the stars, MissyPissy says so!"

"Ralph MC/ME/DM"
Posted by HitmanPayne on 04-19-11 at 03:11 PM
Ralph not being noticed mostly in the previews seem a little weird. If Steve was to be booted IMO, it wouldn't be so hyped in the previews. Ralph may indeed be the bigger threat to Rob.

I have a feeling at the last minute Mike's cards will fall as David seems to have a sturdy base and Mike's falling cards will open the door for Matt to sneak through and still be alive on Redemption Island.

"Grant IC Winner"
Posted by HitmanPayne on 04-19-11 at 04:50 PM
Forgot to mention the IC winner.
"MC / DM / ME ... Ralph booted"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-19-11 at 03:37 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-19-11 AT 03:51 PM (EST)

I like Krautboy's theory that the tepid applause in Redemption Stadium is because Matt wins again. I think Mike will lose and become the first juror.

Ralph makes sense as the boot because of the reasons stated by others above, but also because he is the strongest Zap still in the game proper. Booting him prevents him from being able to win immunities, and also sends someone to RI who might be able to defeat Matt, which I’m sure Rob would like to see happen.

Steve is neither an immunity threat nor likely to be helpful in taking out Matt. Julie can be saved for later as well.

I have no idea who will win the IC except that it won't be a Zap. ETA but since the IC winner is worth 2 points in Krautboy's game, I suppose I should take a guess. I will pick Grant.

"Phillip - MC/ME/DM "
Posted by tribephyl on 04-19-11 at 05:13 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-19-11 AT 05:14 PM (EST)

Outside of all the drama he is causing back at camp, it seems Phillip ends up having a redemptive moment on the side of a cliff, opening the door for him to finish his journey.
Sure Rob is upset because he just made it known that Phillip is in his F3 scenario, BUT the mere fact that Phillip was all about getting rid of Rob and recently decided to side with him makes me believe that their revealed plans will fail.
Rob will have to dine on his goat this week.

On RI the reactions have a distinct unpleasurable feel to them.
Pretty much everyone would be "happy" with a Mike win. So me thinks that he doesn't.
Matt and David make it through to the next round.
If only one makes it through than I'll give it to David just because.

Oh...and Grant for the IC.

"David comes in first, Matt second, Mike third; Rooster is sent packing"
Posted by Belle Book on 04-19-11 at 05:19 PM
The challenge in Redemption Stadium is a puzzle one, which David rocks. Matt comes in second and Mike, who has no story left, is sent packing -- either to Sequesterville or to the jury.

Grant wins Immunity, so another Zapatera goes. Although Steve earned Philip's wrath, Rooster is a bigger threat, so off he goes to join David and Matt on Redemption Island.


"Steve MC/DM/ME"
Posted by Round Robin on 04-20-11 at 01:26 AM
Grant wins IC.
"DM/MC/ME Steve voted out"
Posted by michel on 04-20-11 at 02:03 AM
Rob and his Rob-bots continue the pagonging.
Steve is voted out because that'll give Rob Ralph and Steve's votes.
Or maybe Ralph wins immunity. Why not? That's my guess.

On RI, really? Only 1 eliminated? Will we soon have more people there than in the game? Matt should stay.

Am I missing something? Do we vote on how many times people say Phil is crazy? I didn't read article 24 section G line ii. I hate it when the voting thread rules look like a contract.

"Steve VO, Truel : MC / ME / DM, IC - Rob"
Posted by Woogie on 04-20-11 at 05:41 AM
Busy week, had really small amount of time to check all the speculations. So going with guts.
"Rooster~Mike/David/Matt"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-20-11 at 07:51 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-20-11 AT 03:38 PM (EST)

I essentially agree with Krautboy this week. I think that the conflict with Phillip and Steve is more distraction, than boot story. However, like Tribe, I think that Phillip's arc is winding down. With Rob exposing to us and him last week that he wants Phillip to be in the F3 with him, that since it's revealed, it will not happen. With Phillip meditating on the rock, it makes me think he's on his way out the Survivor door...finally. Look to see him gone soon, imo.

There is serious manipulation, once again, in the promos, as OFG pointed out. I agree that Ralph is the only one left from Zapatera that is trying his best to play the game and scramble. I do not see any mercy boots this week. I think Ralph will walk the walk.

On Redemption Island, I think that Mike got his big spotlight while he was still in the game. He had really no reflection on RI, while David let us know that RI was probably the best path to end game. I think Mike will lose the RI challenge and be the first one on our jury. I think Matt stays alive. I will have Matt finish first, then David. Could be the other way around.

Editing to choose Boston Rob as Immunity winner....more than likely it is a puzzle, and I still think he's the best at them...

"Rooster - Mike/David/Matt"
Posted by CTgirl on 04-20-11 at 10:31 AM
I'm in the camp that Rooster gets sent to Redemption Island. Somebody has got to give Matt a run for his money. I had hopes for Mike but since he was ignored on Redemption Island, I don't think it's he (his early confessional in the first episode has me confused though).

I agree with the thought that the Murlonio's tepid response is probably in reaction to Matt winning again. If only one person gets eliminate at the tri-el, I will start jumping on the bandwagon with those that think this is the stupidest twist ever.

We don't see any challenge vidcaps so it's probably a lame one like shuffleboard or something. At any rate, an Ometepe probably wins. Since everyone is guessing Grant, I'm going to guess Andrea.

"Vote Tally #1"
Posted by dabo on 04-20-11 at 10:42 AM
This is post #19, vote tally #1, compiling 18 previous posts; 16 vote, 2 vote change, no other posts.

Duel Finish Orders (16)

MC/ME/DM: 5
MC/DM/ME: 4
DM/ME/MC: 3
DM/MC/ME: 2
ME/DM/MC: 1
ME/MC/DM: 1

3rd Place in Duel (16)

Mike: 9
David: 5
Matt: 2

2nd Place in Duel (16)

Matt: 8
David: 5
Mike: 3

1st Place in Duel (16)

David: 6
Matt: 6
Mike: 4

Voted Out (Boot) From Murlonio (16)

Ralph "Rooster": 8
Steve: 6
Phillip: 2

Individual Immunity Winner Picks (13)

Grant: 8
Rob: 2
Andrea: 1
Ralph "Rooster": 1
Steve: 1

"Rooster - David/Matt/Mike"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 04-20-11 at 01:50 PM
I think Rooster is voted out. Steve is misdirection

David wins the duel; Matt is second; and Mike is last.

"Ralph MC/DM/ME"
Posted by Travel_Queen on 04-20-11 at 02:12 PM
Ralph booted at TC

Mike is last in the truel
David is second
Matt wins again.

Rob wins II.

"Ralph; MC, ME, DM; IC-Rob"
Posted by Blind Freddy on 04-20-11 at 03:28 PM
Going with Ralph as voted out. He's still a physical threat and Steve is not. Rob is calling the shots despite any Phillip attempts to get Steve out. Rob wants ALL alphas gone.

At RI, David has a nice straight stack going, Matt is relatively unseen but has the edit thing going for him while Mike's stack is already shown stacked pooly. Mike's system's analyst degree won't help him unless they are stacking computers and Matt's pre-med classes only help stack bedpans. David's career DEPENDS on the details....and getting them right. So I'm going with a David win, Matt 2nd to keep his edit going and Mike losing to become the first Juror.

The IC is a complete shot in the dark. Since we don't have a single teaser or vidcap of the chal I'm thinking it's got to be something boring that CBS is ashamed to preview. Is it board games, rock paper scissors?...or more likely somekind of Q & A with answer cubes. (I'd throw in the concentration game but that's already bored us at RI). So in any event the IC is likely NOT a chal with any action or physical activity...so some kind of mental chal.

Hmmmm...no chance for Ralph or Steve to win. The Spa girls Natalie and Ashley have been working on their tans all season...so they've not paid attention to details...or anything for that matter. Andrea just won and is a player, so maybe. Rob is desperate to close this game out and get the last Alpha male out...and he ALWAYS pays attention(eg HII clues that no one bothered to look for). Julie?, Steve?...ehhh, they're worn out from all the Phillip drama and guarding their rice can. Phillip is out for sheer lack of thought clarity. I'm gonna go with Rob as the IC winner. Plus it'll give JP more to wax on about in his blog.

For clarity...
RI chal
Mike third, Matt second, David wins

IC winner is Rob

Ralph is voted out

"Ralph...ME/MC/DM"
Posted by Loree on 04-20-11 at 03:55 PM
I still think Ralph is the most dangerous and will be voted out.

Boston Rob needs to show he can still do it and goes all out for the IC and wins Immunity.

Matty is done and out first at RI. Mike finishes in the middle. And David wins the duel.

"Ralph - Mike/Matt/David - Andrea wins IC"
Posted by Corvis on 04-20-11 at 04:56 PM
This has been a tough week. I have flip flopped between Steve and Ralph - can't decide if they'll vote out the threat or if Steve and Phillip's argument will lead to them getting rid of the cause of drama at camp. My guess is that Ralph will add to the drama not make it less, so he may be a target when he does show up for the fight. In addition, Mike has shown to be very conciliatory so I think they may make things more calm only to have Phillip blow it all up at TC. In the end, I think they'll get rid of Ralph because he's a bigger threat.

As for the challenge, Mike is the only one who did not get a RI confessional last episode. I think he will lose and be the first member of the jury. You know, both Matt (who has a heck of a RI story) and David (who was shown saying that RI might be the better way to make it to the end) could make it to the final duel to get back in the game if they keep beating the next new person on RI each week. It's interesting to me that it appears post merge you don't have to win more than one duel to make it back in the game - as long as you don't lose any of the earlier ones. In any case, I am giving David the edge at winning the stacking blocks challenge.

For immunity, I am going with Andrea for a two-fer.