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Original Message
"Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-14-11 at 05:28 PM
Episode Title: "Rice Wars"

Press Release:

A CONTAMINATED CONTAINER OF RICE SPAWNS A CONTROVERSY THAT ESCALATES FAR BEYOND THE MATTER AT HAND, ON "SURVIVOR: REDEMPTION ISLAND," WEDNESDAY, APRIL 20

"Rice Wars" - When one alliance's food supply is contaminated, a heated argument at camp sparks an explosive tribal council. Meanwhile on Redemption Island, the three remaining castaways compete to stay in the game and avoid becoming the first member of the jury, on SURVIVOR: REDEMPTION ISLAND, Wednesday, April 20 (8:00-9:00 PM ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-14-11 at 05:44 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-14-11 AT 05:45 PM (EST)

So there will be someone going on the jury this week?

The argument must be the Phillip/Steve blow-up.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-14-11 at 06:46 PM
If the call sheets are taken at face value, then the first member of the Jury ought to be the (first) loser of the E11 duel.
Kona in Spoilers at Sucks makes the point as well.

FWIW, the CBS duel vote page for this week's episode shows the #notaduel is a three-way between Matt, Mike and Dave.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-14-11 at 07:55 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-14-11 AT 08:06 PM (EST)

Then the blurb would be based on the three of them supposing that only one will be eliminated next and that the jury is starting at this point, but they'd be wrong? They aren't typically that coy about the clues with the viewers.

I hate posting from my phone.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Krautboy on 04-14-11 at 08:07 PM
Thanks VG: Yes, Kona's interpretation seems correct. The wording is awkward, but nothing has really changed from what we expected...The three way challenge will eliminate two from the game and the winner will have a chance to avoid being the first Juror by winning again next week (EP11), when the loser of that duel becomes the first juror instead.


Krautboy

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-14-11 at 08:26 PM
But doesn't it seem odd to mention the jury in the clue if it's not actually a factor this week at all?

Then again, have they ever referred to the jury commencement in the clues before?

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-14-11 at 08:54 PM
I have the greatest respect for Kona and Krautboy, but I think the clue is quite clear. One person will lose and be the first juror.

All it takes to make sense is to go with the idea that they flip the three-way duel scenario such that it's an elimination contest with one person out, rather than a contest with one victor.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-14-11 at 09:17 PM
Certainly, the "outlasting" part of the Survivor motto would be addressed if the point of the #notaduel is not to lose, but it seems contrary to the whole philosophy of the game. I am trying to picture how Probst would call that exactly. It all seems very anti-climatic.

Endurance version: "And X drops the ball. He is now Juror 1. Y and Z, you can relax, you are still in it."
Race version: "Y still alive! Z alive! X comes in third, off to the Jury!"

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-14-11 at 09:50 PM
I completely see your point, VG, an excellent point.

As a counter-point, The Amazing Race works on exactly that principle of racing. Teams who manage to arrive before the last team, stay in, and the team bringing up the rear is eliminated. This continues until the last leg of F3, when they flip it around and the first place team is all that matters.

In the old days on TAR, there wasn't even a prize for first on the mat, and all the teams bunched up on the next leg, so first or second didn't matter so much.

Of course they could always be evil and give the first person to complete the challenge some food (if it were not endurance).

My main feeling that it should be a 9-person jury comes from my sense that all the remaining players should be in the game to the end. They are all solidly developed characters. If Julie and Steve had been bounced last night, I could see them being done, but it's hard for me to think that only one of Matt, David, Mike has any story left.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-14-11 at 11:06 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-14-11 AT 11:10 PM (EST)

But RI has been as much about someone being out of the game FOR GOOD (think Russhole) as about someone having another chance. So with only one loser out of three it would just become more about the finality of defeat while creating more suspense about who could possibly get back in.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-14-11 at 11:15 PM
Agree, BR.
It would tremendously improve the odds for an early post-merge vote-out to get back in, if the player doesn't have to definitively beat several opponents in a row. Matt did it against all odds and during the time when weaker challenge players were getting voted out.

The post-merge, if one against one, would more likely be a series of a win or two followed by defeat. There would be no one to root for. If one out of three leaves, there is much more chance for at least one person to make a good run of it.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-15-11 at 00:50 AM
P.S. Just checked the CBS web site and here's the current vote total for who people want to win on RI:
- 71% Matt
- 19% Mike
- 10% David

Surprised Matt gets such a high total. Also a lot of comments that people want him to come back and beat Rob.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by tribephyl on 04-14-11 at 05:53 PM
When one alliance's food supply is contaminated, a heated argument at camp sparks an explosive tribal council.

Definitely sounds like the rant Phillip goes on with Steve as the receiver. Tribes are further divided as one's rice supply becomes tainted and the other tribe won't share.

the three remaining castaways compete to stay in the game and avoid becoming the first member of the jury

Wow. Okay. Is the jury worse than going home? Sounds to me like only one of them is "losing"... and the jury starts at 9?
Somehow 2 people are gonna have miss out. I'm a bit cunfuzzlt.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-14-11 at 06:03 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-15-11 AT 11:20 AM (EST)

Yes it sounds like only one of the three is being evicted from RI to the jury bench. But for the jury to consist of 9 everyone still there has to be either on it or in F3.

Maybe from this point on two people remain at RI and there are three-way contests each time?

ETA I like this idea because I firmly believe from the editing that Matt is going to return to the game again, and this would increase his chances of being able to do so. You wouldn't have to win every time, you'd just have to not lose.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-14-11 at 07:50 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-14-11 AT 07:55 PM (EST)

Here's a thought for discussion:

The call sheets tell us that on Day 35 there are 5 Murlonia in camp, and 4 jurors coming to TC. What it doesn't tell us is how many people are on RI. The assumption has been one on RI (waiting for the voted off from Day 35 TC) because the CS said "duel."

Looking at TDT's calendar, it appears to me that if only ONE person goes to the jury for each duel from Ep 10 on, assuming one duel per episode, there will indeed be 4 jurors on Day 35 (Duels from Ep 10, 11, 12, 13).

Day 35 is the last day of the 13th Episode. "Duels" in Eps 10, 11, 12, 13 that had one bootee per duel could result in 4 jurors, with 5 people remaining in the game going into TC, plus 3 people on RI (having lost one on the first day of the cycle).

4 of the current 9 in camp will get voted off between now and Day 35 -- either Ep 11 or 12 needs to be a double tribal again. Therefore, RI would actually have FOUR people on it for the Day 33 duel in Ep 13 if I count correctly. One loser booted to become the fourth juror at the Ep 13 TC.

I'm not too sure how they fit in a duel for the double boot episode. They might not. In that case they would need to lose two to the jury in Ep 13. (Or Ep 12, if Ep 11 is the double TC.)

After the TC on Day 35, there would be 4 in the game, 4 jurors, plus 4 people on RI.
Say the RI "duel" for Ep 14 (to be shot Day 36 per CS) sends one person back in the game, there will be 5 in the game again. 4 are already jurors. That leaves 3 losers of the RI duel, who will all become jurors, unless there is one more duel. This seems unlikely with three days remaining, all fitting into the Finale.

It appears we could have a jury of 9 and a F3, and where we went astray in the count is by assuming that a duel involves two people? We now know it can involve at least three.

There is nothing that strange about only booting one from a multi-player contest, as essentially that is how Survivor works -- boot one at a time. However, Survivor challenges are traditionally designed to have a winner, not a loser, but it can be done. The challenge only needs to have a goal at the end, similar to the heats in the F!! challenge, and those who complete it first stay in the game, while the last one is eliminated.

Then for the last challenge, with four competitors and one winner, it would most likely be an endurance challenge or some other kind of challenge where you fall out of it and you are done.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Krautboy on 04-14-11 at 08:13 PM
Georjanna lays it out quite nicely here:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=7607&forum=DCForumID2&omm=73



Krautboy

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-14-11 at 08:40 PM
Thanks, Krautboy!
I hadn't looked at the duel topic yet today. I jumped in on what was being discussed here without seeing Georgianna's post.

But both her scenarios are for a jury of 7, whereas the new clue indicates to me that the F12 is when the jury starts. My scenario works for a 9 person jury while being totally compatible with the call sheet info.

No comments on it?

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-14-11 at 10:34 PM
It's too complicated for my brain to absorb right now but if it works I'll buy it.

Also, to me it's very plausible that they would change up how RI works after the first person re-enters the game.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-14-11 at 11:18 PM
I know it lacks Georjanna's graphics skills. It does work though. The key is buying into the possibility of a duel with four people in it.

I'll see if I can make it more visual and put it in the duel topic.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Georjanna on 04-15-11 at 00:20 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-15-11 AT 02:31 AM (EST)

OFG,

I construct charts because it is very hard for me to process numerical data without working through it ... graphically. I literally had to use hash marks to finally get the numbers right in my examples.

So, I did that with your numbers and they, of course, do work. And, if you like, I can plug those numbers into the forms for the charts that I did earlier and post them. I have a CAT Scan at the ungodly hour of 8:30 AM in the morning, so I'll be up all night anyway. If I go to sleep, I'll never make it.

But the frog stays. I'm fond of him and I can't abide unoccupied space ...

I do hope, though, that they don't do it as you've suggested that they might. Because in that 9 Juror/3 Finalists scenario, it seems to me that Redemption Island becomes simply an adjunct tribe/campsite. In fact, if I'm doing the math correctly, at the conclusion of the Episode 13 Tribal Council (#15), the numbers are 4 Murlonio, 4 Jurors and 4 Redemption Islanders. And, for me at least, so will go whatever mystique that the imaginative set and the perception of exotic isolation have managed to engender.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-15-11 at 00:36 AM
That would be amazing, Georjanna! Ugh about the CAT scan.

I have been thinking more about it, and maybe could quickly whip up the outline I propose in the other topic, and you could whip up an alternate that you may see as making more sense.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-15-11 at 00:29 AM
YES! I am so happy to see it's apparently going to be a jury of 9 with an F3. I had just asked about this in another thread earlier today and was saying that I hate to see any of David/Mike/Matt go to LL, because I feel that all 3 have good story lines...so I'm happy to see they'll all be sticking around in 1 way or another.

This is going to totally change the game. #1, it's going to screw up Rob's plans because now Matt is definitely jury (or possibly even returnee). Don't think Rob was counting on that. And it also means that there will be more Zaps on the jury than the Omes realized.

Personally, I think whoever comes back from RI is going to have a good shot at winning with the jury. Could definitely see Matt or Mike having a compelling comeback story.

P.S. OFG, I agree that the reason the Call Sheet spoiler was misinterpreted is because it didn't account for who's on RI + also assumed that duel = 2. I'm too tired to go through the details but I believe you and others who have worked it out.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-15-11 at 01:33 AM
>No comments on it?

OFG, nice work you put into working the F9 Jury scenario. I didn't comment on it because any scenario is really workable, as long as the RI angle can be manipulated at will. At this point, without any additional information, it is all speculative. But, as you showed, the F9 Jury is feasible, even if the timing of events is slightly different.

I have to side with Georjanna, though, in that this scenario gives much too much importance to RI over the actual game, favoring the voted off over those playing the game unscathed from the start.

In addition, and this is not a small point, it strikes me as odd that under these conditions, someone who not only got voted off twice, could potentially not win the #notaduels, yet still end up winning the game. When Russell argued at the Samoa finale that the rules needed to be changed, Probst argued that it wouldn't be Survivor anymore. Three seasons later, here we are. Or are we?

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-15-11 at 01:50 AM
True, but the person can only win the game if the other players believe he or she deserves to win. If they don't think that surviving at RI is worthy of the million, they will vote for one of the two finalists that never went to RI.

If 2 of the 3 Finalists turn out to be coattail riders, then the jury has a way to say "hell no, you didn't play." Of course, if the returnee can't win immunity at both F5 and F4 or make some very strong game moves, very likely he/she is going to get bounced.

That is one reason why I nixed Georjanna's idea that the last returnee is automatically F3. No, that person has to prove that he/she can survive within the game to get to the finals.

In support of this idea, I can see how producers would have foreseen that the first returnee could get bounced like Matt. This ensures that the returnee is on the jury, no matter what. That means consequences, and Survivor likes consequences for actions.

It also means that the dominant alliance, if it chooses to pagong, risks having the minority tribe make up more than 50% of the jury. I think that is more interesting than when the one tribe dominates both the Finalists and the Jury.

I totally agree that in this scenario, RI starts to over-shadow the game. Although, because of the segment length, it won't really, not unless they show a lot more of life at RI. (Get ready for RI clips like the Ponderosa clips.)

Jeff said in his blog this week:
I don’t think we’ve even touched what RI will bring to this game. For those of you on the fence, give it a chance. Let’s see where it goes.

It's been dull with the simple duels. I think more personnel would enliven the arena.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-15-11 at 07:31 AM
Great job Georgianna and OFG! So, there is going to be a jury of 9 along with the F3. I propose that the next double boot will be ep 11 or 12, which sends 2 more to RI, where immediately, at the start of the next episode, they will run the duel and get rid of at least 2. I can see them leaving 2 on RI, rather than one.

That is one reason why I nixed Georjanna's idea that the last returnee is automatically F3. No, that person has to prove that he/she can survive within the game to get to the finals.

I cannot see them returning the RI returnee at the F3, (F4 total still in the game). They would be returned prior to the last IC, if they win they are automatically saved and in the finals....doesn't seem like enough time.

We know from the call sheets that on day 35, TC#15 occurs and they are down to F4 in the original Murolonio tribe. The next day, day 36, they have a duel named, "A Leg Up". I propose that the winner of this duel be returned to the game, making a new F5. The person has a choice of who to vote with, also, a HII still can be played here. Would make for drama. We could see both sides agree to vote out the returnee, OR, we could see them vie for the returnee's vote.

...just my 2 cents...



"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Corvis on 04-15-11 at 09:21 AM
So in order to get my brain to wrap around this, I had to write it out. I think your plan makes sense, but I can't say I like it very much! Like others have said - too many people on RI. I would think they'd send two losers of the next RI duel to the jury, but the clue doesn't sound like that. Perhaps one of the upcoming episodes they send multiple duelers to the jury? Maybe in the episode before the double boot in preparation for that? Then they wouldn't go over three at RI at any one time, which to me makes more sense and seems less like they're messing with the game too much.
"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-15-11 at 07:20 PM
I agree there are too many people. I just went through the numbers according to a one boot pattern to see how they played out -- to see if they even worked with the call sheets.

They do, but within that framework, it would be better to see multiple boots and keep the numbers down.

I will put the latest news at the bottom of the topic.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Corvis on 04-14-11 at 06:02 PM
What this tells me is that the "shocking water cooler" TC that Jeff is talking about has nothing to do with the vote and instead is an argument over the division in the tribe - the Haves and the Have Nots.

Which means Ralph, Julie or Steve gets booted. No turning on cult leader Rob yet.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-14-11 at 08:50 PM
Problem with a F9 shake-up here is that if only two Ome's flip, they are a minority in a 5 person alliance. If only we could see 4 Ome's flip on Rob, that would be awesome.

Unfortunately, Phillip and Natalie look pretty comfy, and Phillip does not like the Zaps it would seem. He reminds me of a kid in high school who was never allowed to sit with the Kool Kids, and they pretend to let him in, and then he treats the other outsiders even worse than the Kool Kids because he has more insecurity than they do.

F8 is an odd time for a shake-up due to the even numbers, but if Grant, Andrea, and Ashley did go against Rob with two Zaps, they could totally do it, and they would still have a 5-person alliance against two, because what are Natalie and Phillip going to do about it?

Rob should turn on Grant pretty soon. Sending Grant to RI is going to be a risky move in any case, and he can't count on beating Grant at F4 or F5.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Corvis on 04-14-11 at 09:43 PM
Was that meant at a reply to my post? I don't see how it connects at all to what I wrote.

In any case, as I said in my post I agree there's no shakeup at Final 9. In another thread somewhere, I suggested F8 is the place to make the move, but it's so risky because if anyone says anything about it and it gets back to Rob, that person could be the next one out.

I totally agree that Rob has to turn on Grant soon. And Grant really needs to be thinking the same way.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-14-11 at 09:54 PM
It started out as a reply to your post in the sense of a continuation. I should have said, I agree Corvis, "No turning on cult leader Rob yet" -- and this is the difficulty there would be if they tried to do it.

But I had just written a long post of wrapping my head around the numbers in three places for the rest of the game, so the reply to you suffered as a result of brain depletion.

"I hate these monkeys"
Posted by dabo on 04-14-11 at 09:51 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-14-11 AT 09:53 PM (EST)

A first member of the jury doesn't prohibit there also being a second member of the jury.

"Three remaining castaways?" Can't even stick to their own dictionary.

"I think CBS has the math wrong..."
Posted by vince3 on 04-14-11 at 09:54 PM
There are currently 12 players left in the game: Ome6, Zap3, RI3.

If we're going Jury of 7, F3, then we need to get rid of two more to get to the guaranteed to be at the FTC stage... and this duel upcoming can do that if there is one winner and the other two get burned buffs...

If, however, it's Jury of 9, F3... then whoever loses the duel heads to the Jury Box immediately...

Jury of 9/F2 then we need to eliminate someone before we worry about Jury... and if it's Jury of 7/F2, then we gotta get rid of 3 until Jury worries...

"RE: I think CBS has the math wrong..."
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-14-11 at 10:06 PM
My post #6 works out how the 9/3 works with both the new clue and the call sheets.

I thought about a F2, but there isn't time. Take a look at TDT's calendar, which is integrated with the Call Sheets.

Day 35, Ep 13 F5 IC & TC.
Day 36, final duel. 1 comes back, 5 left.
Day 37, F5 IC
Day 38, F4 IC
Day 39, F3 Final TC

If it were a F2, there would be another day needed for the F3 IC.

"No idol"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-15-11 at 03:47 AM
From Jeff's tweets:

This is what happens when you have nothing left to do but mess with the other tribe. There is NO hidden idol.

I wish we had known, but nice of him to let us know. I guess Rob has the only one now.

Another tweet:

NEXT WEEK - one of the most explosive TC's ever. Ever.

As spec'd, the water cool talk will be about some fight or revelation, some interpersonal dynamics, perhaps best not to expect strategy. If they were going to get strategic, I think he'd be so proud he would say so.

Wow, EVER, EVER. This could even top Judd's disgruntled exit.

"RE: No idol"
Posted by michel on 04-17-11 at 05:31 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-17-11 AT 05:33 PM (EST)

For Jeff, "ever" means since last week. He probably doesn't even remember Judd.


ETA: Jeff's tweet about idol is consistent with what we know: The pre-merge idols don't get replaced until both are played. That's what happened before.

"RE: No idol"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-17-11 at 07:33 PM
Not exactly. I did a whole rundown of every season with two idols in play last week's topic. In Fiji, one pre-merge idol was not played (Yau Man's), but they replaced the one Alex played at the merge the next episode. It was subsequently found by Earl. That was the best precedent, the only two-idol season where a pre-merge idol remained in someone's possession post-merge and at least one of the two idols got played.

They could have gone either way.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-15-11 at 07:25 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-15-11 AT 07:26 PM (EST)

CBS has a new poll going on its Survivor Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/Survivor?sk=wall

Survivor asked Who do you think will be the first Jury member?

David

Matt

Mike

For this poll to have meaning, there has to either:
one winner who COULD become the first member of a 7-person jury in a later episode.
OR
one loser who becomes the first member of a 9-person jury.

Because the winner could keep winning on RI, the poll pretty much has to refer to picking the loser of the duel -- one loser, 9 person jury. JMHO

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-15-11 at 08:03 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-15-11 AT 08:09 PM (EST)

And again, they've *never* started bringing up jury formation a week or more in advance of it actually starting, and now we have a second item that would be doing that if there is to be a jury of only seven. So it's settled.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-16-11 at 11:41 PM
http://www.tvguide.com/tvshows/Survivor-Redemption-2011/episode-10-season-22/rice-wars/308864

TV GUIDE

Survivor: Redemption Island Episode: "Rice Wars" Season 22, Episode 10
Episode Synopsis: One alliance's supply of rice becomes contaminated, which leads to a heated argument.
Meanwhile, Matt, Mike and David duel on Redemption Island, with the loser becoming the first member of the jury.

How will that work with this challenge, if this riddle is accurate?

Two highest at end of time period are safe?
First two to ten feet are safe, if not to ten feet than the best heights when time runs out?

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by dabo on 04-17-11 at 00:46 AM
They only have so many cards, possibly first to have all cards in house (per construction instructions) and have structure standing for a matter of so many seconds finishes first, second to do so finishes second. What would concern me here is first to finish could knock over his structure and interfere with one of the other two, or it could fall over accidentally.
"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-17-11 at 01:41 AM
Well, we know what the prior rules were. I should have said.

Build a structure ten feet high.
Time for the challenge is set.
If no one gets to ten feet, the highest structure when the time elapses wins.

Using all your tiles is not rewarded. One of the pitfalls is using too many cards to make a good foundation base, not leaving enough to get the height.

They've run it twice with the same rules, so I doubt it'll deviate.

I was wondering how they would run it with two winners.

Kona at MESS thinks the TV Guide clue is just an interpretation of the Press Release, and doesn't buy into the first juror idea. He could be right. I know the clues can be crappy.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by dabo on 04-17-11 at 02:40 AM
Unfortunately, I have to leave vote threads open to all these different interpretations, sigh. The basic challenge is the same even if they alter the rules governing it a bit.
"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Blind Freddy on 04-18-11 at 01:25 PM
Slightly different version of text from the 'Next Time on Survivor' video teaser caption text at CBS site....

-----------------------
An alliance's rationing of food causes animosity amongst the tribe
-------------------------

Comment: So one alliance rations the food. '...amongst the tribe' seems to imply that the alliance doing the rationing has appropriated the other tribe's food to mete out.

I know it's parsing of the words which can lead to over analysis, but fwiw the teaser states 'tribe' instead of 'alliance'. If it were just one alliance that was being rationed, then only that alliance would have animosity...it would seem.

Just throwing it out there, not sure it will help any. And of course the teaser phrasing might have just been casually framed and doesn't imply anything at all. <eyeroll>

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Krautboy on 04-18-11 at 03:15 PM
Thanks for the update BF:

Yes, it sounds like the contamination of one alliances rice mentioned in the original text, leads to the other alliance having control of the "tribes" food supply.

From the big smile on Rob's face in the camp shots, it appears the Zaps are those who lose their rice and the Ometepe tribe takes control of the "tribes" food, because all the edible rice is now what was left of the Ometepe's supply. Rob probably has no choice but to share and doles out a small ration to the Zaps, while perhaps keeping a disproportionate amount for the Ometepe?

This would definately create animosity from the Zaps, and Phillip decides to take it personally instead of recognizing that you don't take food from a hungry dog...


Krautboy

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by dabo on 04-18-11 at 04:44 PM
If I were Ralph or Steve or Julie I would haul all the fishing supplies to Tribal.
"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by CTgirl on 04-18-11 at 04:45 PM
The Ometepes aren't planning for the fact that there could be a Zapatera or Matt in the F3. This is not good jury management!
"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Round Robin on 04-19-11 at 06:38 AM
Yeah, and if a Zap or Matt win the game because of poor jury management, I bet RussHell will be laughing his @$$ off.
"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by michel on 04-19-11 at 09:18 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-19-11 AT 09:19 AM (EST)

But if there is a Zappa in the F3, no amount of jury management would help. That player will always get all the votes from his original tribe. The F3 makes it easier for the outsider to slide in. We've seen it with Fabio and there was nothing that Foa Foa could have done for jury management if Brett had won the Final IC.
As for Matt making the F3, the Omies' only hope (and mine personally) would be that the jury would think he didn't play the game. I don't hold much hope there.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by parathor on 04-19-11 at 10:21 AM
Yeah, I don't see how they can plan for that, really - they just need to continue doing what's been working (and what "worked" for Rob in AllStars), stick with your core alliance until the end. You can't fault someone for being too loyal.
"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-19-11 at 11:28 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-19-11 AT 11:31 AM (EST)

From the big smile on Rob's face in the camp shots, it appears the Zaps are those who lose their rice and the Ometepe tribe takes control of the "tribes" food, because all the edible rice is now what was left of the Ometepe's supply. Rob probably has no choice but to share and doles out a small ration to the Zaps...

Foreshadowing that we will see lots of mama birdies and a nest full of open-mouthed chics this episode....

ETA: Also, we have shots of papa Robfadda and Grant cooking over the fire, when Phillip rises and starts playing the race issue...as that's when Grant notes it to Rob.

So, the Zapatera's rice is most likely spoiled and they are now dependent on Rob to ration the Ome's share, Phillip is pissed about it...


"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-20-11 at 01:19 PM
FWIW, it's Ometepe's rice that has gone bad.
video sneak peek
"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by dabo on 04-20-11 at 01:36 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-20-11 AT 01:42 PM (EST)

Wow! Phillip totally pulls the race card out of his ass when it's just about dirty rice!

So, Rob insists on segregation in the Murlonio tribe, Ometepe stuff and Zapatera stuff, but when Ometepe mismanages their rice suddenly the things change. Steve and Julie refuse to budge, make a decision, without Ralph. Good for them, amp up the pressure on Ometepe.

ETA: Day 26. Duel on day 25. IC and TC on day 27. Long time to stew.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by CTgirl on 04-20-11 at 01:51 PM
Explosive Tribal Council

Sounds like Phillip continues to go off on Zapetera at TC - probably when Jeff asks a leading question. I bet Ralph gets drawn into the mix too.
Looks like this will be the most exciting thing to happen tonight!

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by dabo on 04-20-11 at 02:14 PM
And the po' Zapatera slave class gives it back: How you like this Ometepe/Zapatera segregation now? Fine until you need something then it is okay to steal from Zapatera.

They probably settle the rice thing on day 26, can't leave it drying in the sun all night long. But Rob probably does let Phillip fester.

Damn, this would be the perfect time to blindside Rob but the numbers aren't good for a 3 Ometepe jump, 3 Ome 3 Zap parity is the best they have. Still, Rob may go all out for individual immunity for himself, jumping into endgame mode earlier than he thought he would have to.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by michel on 04-20-11 at 02:58 PM

>They probably settle the rice thing
>on day 26, can't leave
>it drying in the sun
>all night long.

Hi! Hi!

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by dabo on 04-20-11 at 02:22 PM
Vid ends with

Tune in tonight to see the conclusion and the explosive Tribal Council (emphasis mine on "and")

Frankly, if I were Zapatera and had no other options, pulling all-out bombing runs at TC to throw hypocrisy and whatever else in the Ometepe faces would be the way to go. Shame Mike isn't there to navigate the Zapatera B-17.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-20-11 at 03:01 PM
>Vid ends with
>Tune in tonight to see the
>conclusion and the explosive Tribal
>Council (emphasis mine on "and")

P.S. And don't forget that Jeff tweeted after last week's show: "NEXT WEEK - one of the most explosive TC's ever. Ever."

So could this TC be worse than the Ben and Jaison incident? Should be interesting.

Rob better distance himself from Phillip quickly. Ashley's reaction in particular says to me that she is going to have trouble condoning this behavior. Interesting that Natalie and Ralph are the only ones not shown in this clip...where are they? Not sure of the timing of this clip, but could they be on reward together??? Smart play on Ralph's part if he wins IC and takes Grant or one of the Ome girls.


"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by dabo on 04-20-11 at 03:56 PM
This is on a day off according to TDT's calendar, IC the next day. Ralph could be down checking the nets. But, yeah, where is Natalie? Even if she is Daddy Rob's favorite she shouldn't be without a buddy. Did she sneak away for a no-no?
"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-20-11 at 04:09 PM
OK then that must mean that the immunity necklace I see hanging from the shelter is Andrea's from last time.

Maybe Natalie is just off-camera because Rob wouldn't let her go to the bathroom by herself, would he?

Interesting when Rob says we'll just use their container, Phillip knows sense that they won't be willing to give it up...yet he still does Rob's bidding and plays the bad guy/messenger.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-20-11 at 02:26 PM
Wow, that's awesome, VG...a prolonged segment! Thanks for sharing...




"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-20-11 at 03:24 PM
Am I missing something? Why can't Ometepe put their salvaged rice back into the container they dumped it out from?
"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-20-11 at 03:39 PM
I was wondering that too, BR. Assuming it must have a hole or is faulty in some way, so they want the Zaps' container.

This is obviously karmic payback for being jerks and creating an "us vs. them" food system.

Will be hilarious if Ralph tries to "bargain" with them on the rice container.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by dabo on 04-20-11 at 04:00 PM
Well, maggots don't just come from nowhere, maybe they think the container has been converted into an evil maggot farm or something. Really, though, they ought store the "cleaned" rice separate from the uncontaminated rice in the other container unless there is absolutely no other choice.
"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Blind Freddy on 04-20-11 at 04:02 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-20-11 AT 04:04 PM (EST)

My guess is that flies got in their can thru a loosely sealed lid(the container is a metal milk can). Maggots birthe from eggs laid by flies as was proven by Francesco Redi in 1668. So the Ometepe's were just careless with their food supply and didn't seal their container top well enough.

All that said, all they would have to do is wash out the container, let it dry and replace the rice into it. That procedure would require some dry weather and a day or two to be sure so mold wouldn't grow in place of maggots. But using even average common sense it would seem to be less risky to do that over combining hopefully cleaned rice in with proven cleaned rice. If the Omes poorly cleaned their rice, they would just contaminate the good rice and it'll be maggots all around for everyone.

Mmmmm good times.

Question aside...Where's Waldo Ralph anyway? And Natalie was not seen around in the Rice Wars melodrama either.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-20-11 at 04:16 PM
Where's Waldo Ralph anyway? And Natalie was not seen around in the Rice Wars melodrama either.

I mentioned that above too. Was hoping it might mean that Ralph won IC and took Natalie on reward, but Dabo says that according to TDT's calendar, this is the day after RI duel but day before IC/TC. So Ralph must be off gathering wood or going to the bathroom or something exciting like that.

P.S. Great points about the rice. Reminds me of the similar brilliance when they kept the rooster vs. the hen who could lay eggs.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-20-11 at 04:35 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-20-11 AT 04:38 PM (EST)

I assumed they could just wash out the container really well and wait for it to dry. If they need to wait a couple of days I would think they could wrap the rice up and secure it in the blanket pretty well until then.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by michel on 04-20-11 at 05:08 PM
I'm guessing their container broke/can't seal and that's what caused the infestation in the first place.

As for Natalie's absence, that could be very telling if they manipulate the scene to remove her from the ugly fight.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-20-11 at 05:21 PM
I just rewatched the clip and at the 1:12 mark you can see 2 sets of legs/feet in the upper/Ome part of the shelter. So apparently the Spa Girls are laying there during the fight between Steve and Phillip. Whether they say anything or just pretend to be sleeping remains to be seen.

It will be very interesting indeed to see if this only taints Phillip or if others/all of Ometepe are pulled into the drama. If I were Rob, I'd want to totally distance myself from this.

"RE: Episode 10 - "Rice Wars""
Posted by dabo on 04-20-11 at 06:30 PM
Too lazy to get up and help out even when the food supply is at risk? But Phillip gets mad at Zapatera? In-sane.