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"Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"

Posted by Flowerpower on 04-11-11 at 11:04 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-11 AT 10:37 PM (EST)

S22: Survivor: Redemption Island

WARNING: Double Tribal Councils AHEAD!! WARNING: Finally....Double Boot Ahead!!!! ...{Cue SCREAMING HAWK SOUNDS}
Welcome to the Survivor Blows State of the Spoiling aka SOTS! This is the place where we scour the multiple boards that live, breathe, and eat all things Survivor and then try and spoil the episiode before it airs. Sometimes we are right, and sometimes we are not, but we will eternally try. Just a quick reminder that it's a great time for all of us here at Blows to go back and give our guidelines the once over, they really are the reason we all have such a fun, exciting, and CIVIL board. As in the immortal words of S1 Colleen, Be nice and play fair!

As spoiled by Volcanic Glass, the name of our episode is:

Episode 9, The Buddy System

Last episode, Jiffy boiled the introduction down to this...Rob is smart and noted that Andrea and Matt had a relationship and out of everyone he certainly knows how powerful a couple can be, so he booted Matt. Meanwhile the Zaps prioritized challenge prowess over loyalty and voted out Sarita. Wow, what a smart move, especially now that the game turns individual...d’oh!

When the episode started at Camp Ometepe, we heard from Phillip that he didn’t want to pack all of the belongings but Rob told him it’s better to be safe than sorry. Yes, he did go through a “red-headed step child phase, but he is beyond it now. He has learned alot from Robfadda and he’s ready to stick with the Ometepe’s. {insert Thunderclap here}.

In the end, unfortunately for Matt, the only thing he learned about Boston Rob from watching 3 prior seasons of him in action, and then playing with him, well at least partially playing with him for 21 days, was that he really was from Boston. Back to RI he goes, and no, he isn’t very good at Survivor. But, as David pointed out, Rob is genius!

The episode 9 Title and Misdirection thread can be found here. Most folks think that it is a directive that Rob will give the Ometepe tribe to either keep tabs on Phillip who will most likely need a buddy at all times, OR, it is in reference to buddying up with the Zapatera’s to keep an eye on them. As Ralph’s HII was played the night before, they may be on the look out for a new one, or, they may be on the look out for a new recruit...Phillip.

David told us in his insider video that he knows that Phillip is the low man on the Ometepe totem pole. As such, he’s the outlier that could most easily be persuaded to quit Bossy Rob and join the gentle Zaps. I would bet that Phillip is finally going to be getting the attention that he has so deeply yearned for since arriving in Nicaragua.

Da Clues:

Squid Pro Quo brought us the clues this week. Here they are:

1. THE CASTAWAYS FACE A SURPRISE DOUBLE TRIBAL COUNCIL THAT SENDS TWO PEOPLE TO REDEMPTION ISLAND

2. "The Buddy System" — With a double tribal council sending two more castaways to Redemption Island, paranoia sets in and causes one castaway to dig deep for a chance to prolong their life in the game.

I'll start with clue number one. Krautboy noted in the Double Boots and Triple Duels Thread, that with the number of people still left in the game, it requires there to be a duel every week, starting in EP10 and two episodes with a double elimination from Redemption Island. We can safely assume that we will have a triple duel to start EP10 which will send two players home. That means we will need one more double TC and one more triple duel before the finale.

And, let's face it, while some of these daws are not the sharpest tools in the shed, Robfadda and company must realize that there are way too many folks left for single eliminations each week. So, is it really a surprise double boot?

Now, to address the paranoia and the digging deep...in the promo, thanks to Volcanic Glass for providing them, we have this...First the set up:

VO: Now, the island Godfather...
Rob: "It's my game. I'm in charge."
VO: ... is pulling all the strings.
Julie: "There's no breaking their loyal shield."
VO: But even a mob boss is afraid of something.

Then we hear from the Island Godfather...

I can't shake this idol paranoia...

Then we have pics of folks, David and Mike, digging at the tribe flag on the beach, apparently looking for a HII...

Then, it appears that Mike is finding something, untying a draw string pouch...

I fell for it hook, line, and sinker. But, alas, someone with a sharp eye at Sucks noted that the orange tile there did not belong...and, it is indeed from the Challenge that we have vidcaps for, as he digs for his baton to bash his tile in the first heat! So, it was just a little manipulation by EPMB, once again. After the finding something shots, we have more at the beach...


This time it's Rob and Phillip digging, but you can see that Andrea is there, and so is Mike (see his feet). Clearly they are digging and looking for a HII. More than likely as OFG has speculated here, see post number 65. With all of the talk about digging deep and then pictures of them digging for more than likely another HII, it makes sense that the winner of the first IC shown in the promo gets to take others with him on reward. More than likely the winner of the IC who goes on the reward will be given another clue to the HII. With another clue, and another possibility of finding one, paranoia sets in, if Rob doesn't find it...

Rob: It might cost me my survivor life
VO: Will two Tribal Councils ...
Phillip: "I've got to make something happen."
VO: ... end his reign?
Rob: "You have to gamble."

That's right, if he doesn't have it, he'll have to "gamble" as to who to vote for...


Da Story:

The episode will pick up where they left off...Ometepe's riding high and pledging unity and loyalty, post Matt boot...


...On three, 1, 2, 3....OMETEPE!

Day 1. Called for a challenge. They all gather at Challenge Beach, where Jiffy tells them that SURPRISE, this is the first of 2 IC's, each followed by a TC where one of you will be voted out and go to RI. We will have an IC and later tonight you will go to TC, blah, blah, blah.

At the challenge site, we see that all 11 are participating...


Just for fun, I think it's from bottom to top, Rob, Phillip, Grant, David, ?Ashley, Rooster, Steve, Andrea, Mike, ?Julie, Natalie

Regardless, the first 6 to dig up their baton, and then use it to smash their tile and then cross a finish line are through to the next heat. All 5 losers sit on the bench. We know that ...





Grant and Rob are 1 and 2...HELLO!

At the next heat, we see 6 puzzle tables, grouped by 3, with shields to cover from the other players tables. More than likely they have to run up and collect bags that are knotted and tied to posts, then bring them back and complete the puzzle. First 3 to complete the puzzle, move on to the next heat.

The final heat of 3, looks like they have to do some kind of 3 D spatial puzzle of some kind. So, there has been ALOT of speculation about the winner. Clearly, this is a challenge that Boston Rob could SMOKE. And, imo, he does....we have shots of him at TC, thanks again to Volcanic Glass and Pepe Le Pew for their abilities to zoom in on vidcaps. Here's what I see, some may not agree, but I am firm. (Of course feel free to flame me if I'm wrong, later! )

First there was this pic:

Many speculated this to be a buff around Rob's neck. Clearly, there is something there on the neck, over his upper chest...

Here's the IN for comparison:

Then there was this pic:

I put arrows to show....I think the lowest arrow points to the IN, outer edge...also, you can CLEARLY see a box of pixels that are delineated, the arrow on the right points to the delineated BOX that has clearly been ALTERED. Why would it be altered? Because Rob has more than likely won immunity in the first challenge.

So, Rob wins the big IC and gets to take some on reward. Perhaps he chooses to take a final finisher with him, Mike, and he also chooses Phillip. He needs to keep tabs on Phillip at all times, because Rob knows exactly who is with him, and who may be teetering. He has to BUDDY up with Phillip. Perhaps he chooses to leave his loyal lieutenant, Grant, back home with the Zaps and the spa girls...

...to eat rice, and to be his own man...

At first I thought that this appeared to be a morning shot, but I don't think so. See the sun shining on them. We know that the shelter is facing the ocean, and the sun sets in the west, it seems lower in the sky. I'm betting this is post challenge.

That night they go to TC, and here we see them...

This is them filing in for the first TC, as we see 11 seats. From right to left: Natalie, Grant, Andrea, Phillip, Ashley, Rob, Julie, Rooster, and then Mike's back is to us. Steve and David are obscured.

The first TC will most likely be a Zap. If they think they have found the idol, then they will have to "gamble". More than likely a Zap is going home.

The next day, they are called to another IC. As OFG notes that the first challenge is the one with all of the heats, as there are no places for the daws to sit and eat anything. We know that the second challenge, the one that we are not shown, will be one where they are tempted to eat rather than participate in the IC. Jeff Probst gave us this in his blog. He asked, "guess who chooses to eat?"

I predict it could be the challenge that OFG noted was in Micronesia.

So, folks have posted, and I agree that there are no pictures of this challenge because, it would give away too much. It would give away who was voted out at the first IC, and who was participating and who wasn't.

So, the challenge is held, I imagine that ALL of the Zaps will participate, and most likely Grant, Rob, and maybe Andrea. Regardless, after the challenge, they'll plot, then go to the second TC. Where one will be voted out.

Da RESULTS:


Immunity/Reward Challenge Winner:

Here's a hint....


Robfadda

Who joins him on Reward:

Well, definitely...

Phillip...he needs a buddy/babysitter.

And, maybe...


...Mike.

I have serious doubts that Rob would take Mike, however. I only include him here as he may have gotten wind of the Clue that comes with the reward. Maybe Phillip shared it with him? He is seen digging with David, and therefore somehow, he got wind that perhaps the clue involved digging deep...I do believe that Mike is the one that HAS to dig deep.

Boot number 1:

I think that Robfadda and gang will target one of the big Zaps. While we do see lots of digging and searching, I think it will serve as misdirection this week. More than likely, Rob's number one target will not quite be able to dig deep enough. Boot number 1:


Mike

Immunity Challenge Number 2:

I think that in the end, Grant will most likely win this one, his yoga strength will perservere. Mike, who could indeed have won this one, won't be there to participate. Grant will pull it out, as he received a big scare last week with all of the Zap votes.

Boot #2:


Phillip, our Former Federal Agent???

Jiffy asked, guess who will eat? My first thought was that Phillip will definitely eat. OFG noted that Ozzy and Candice both received a surprise boot when they chose to eat at the IC. I think it's going to happen again. As I've said, Rob is playing the game 24/7. He knows who is with him, and who is teetering, and could be a threat later. He was born at night, but not last night. Phillip dipped almost completely under the radar last ep, which, imo, was shocking. He's going to be our surprise boot...


Also, last week on Redemption Island when Matt had won the duel and the right to rejoin the game, Jeff announced the merge and that with the next TC, RI would begin again, and this frame came on...

I know it was to feature Matt, but look who else is in the frame. And, isn't it interesting that these 3 just may end up together as the first to go to RI post merge and get to participate in a tri-el!

Thanks everyone who has come back to the fold to speculate and post here at Blows. So much fun to really get everyone's take on things!

Check out Veruca's Editing Thread, the Vidcap Thread, Krautboy's Voting Score Thread, and Travel_Queens Jury Thread.

Check on Dabo's Vote thread when it appears and enjoy the week! Also, please note what Emydi notes here. We are likely to see 2 leave the RI area at the beginning of episode 10, leaving one winner on RI. Emy speculates that we should be having another DOUBLE boot episode in either ep 10, 11, or 12...food for thought!



Table of contents
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,redbeard103152, 11:31 AM, 04-11-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Travel_Queen, 11:59 AM, 04-11-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,emydi, 12:26 PM, 04-11-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,rachelOH63, 12:54 PM, 04-11-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,HitmanPayne, 03:55 PM, 04-11-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,samboohoo, 04:06 PM, 04-11-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Krautboy, 04:06 PM, 04-11-11
    • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,parathor, 04:23 PM, 04-11-11
    • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Flowerpower, 12:19 PM, 04-13-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,tribephyl, 04:48 PM, 04-11-11
    • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Flowerpower, 08:13 PM, 04-11-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,michel, 07:57 PM, 04-11-11
    • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Flowerpower, 08:30 PM, 04-11-11
      • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,michel, 09:07 PM, 04-11-11
    • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Corvis, 09:17 PM, 04-11-11
      • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,michel, 06:11 PM, 04-12-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Scarlett O Hara, 10:55 PM, 04-11-11
  • The Second IC...,Flowerpower, 06:33 AM, 04-12-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Outfrontgirl, 06:58 AM, 04-12-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Corvis, 02:23 PM, 04-12-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,CTgirl, 02:56 PM, 04-12-11
    • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Flowerpower, 03:51 PM, 04-12-11
  • Idol Paranoia,dabo, 04:03 PM, 04-12-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Brownroach, 04:48 PM, 04-12-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,PepeLePew13, 08:12 PM, 04-12-11
    • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,michel, 08:22 PM, 04-12-11
    • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,dabo, 09:01 PM, 04-12-11
    • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,SquidProQuo, 11:34 PM, 04-12-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,SquidProQuo, 11:25 PM, 04-12-11
    • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,SquidProQuo, 11:27 PM, 04-12-11
      • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Corvis, 09:25 AM, 04-13-11
        • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Flowerpower, 11:39 AM, 04-13-11
          • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Corvis, 12:16 PM, 04-13-11
    • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,dabo, 11:38 PM, 04-12-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Blind Freddy, 01:15 AM, 04-13-11
  • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,ajglitch, 10:47 AM, 04-13-11
    • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,dabo, 11:03 AM, 04-13-11
      • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Corvis, 07:16 PM, 04-13-11
        • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Flowerpower, 07:19 PM, 04-13-11
          • RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS,Blind Freddy, 08:20 PM, 04-13-11
  • Somewhat off topic, but...,Corvis, 12:18 PM, 04-13-11

Messages in this discussion
"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by redbeard103152 on 04-11-11 at 11:31 AM
Flower Power Thanks for the well thought out SOTS. Double boot episodes are a lot harder to figure out in my opinion and your suggestions sound very probable to me. Thanks for all your hard work and know it is appreciated by all here at Blows

"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Travel_Queen on 04-11-11 at 11:59 AM
Thanks Flowerpower. Great SOTS..and yes food for thought indeed. I know some are not enjoying this season with it's RI twist; but I think (I hope) that from here on in, it does get interesting as people start to think more of the consequences of peeps voted out that can come back and be swing votes.


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by emydi on 04-11-11 at 12:26 PM
great SOTS!

"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by rachelOH63 on 04-11-11 at 12:54 PM
Good Job! Can't wait to see how it plays out!

"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by HitmanPayne on 04-11-11 at 03:55 PM
-.- So if this is all true, it looks like we won't be hearing an epic phillip jury question -.-

"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by samboohoo on 04-11-11 at 04:06 PM
Great SOTS FloPo! I agree.


Samboobree, brought to life by Arkie



"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Krautboy on 04-11-11 at 04:06 PM
Flowerpower you are amazing!!!

I've been traveling this week, so I haven't had much time to post, but it has been great to read all the great speculation by everyone here at Blows. Thanks to everyone who participates!

FP, last week I wasn't bold enough to follow your lead when you proposed the idea of a Matt boot, but this week I'm all in!

The shot of Matt flanked by Mike and Phillip clinched it for me.

This week is probably the most complicated episode so far, and your SOTS pulls it together so nicely that there is very little for me to disagree with. Did I mention that you are amazing!


Krautboy


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by parathor on 04-11-11 at 04:23 PM
The only question now is whether Phillip is the only person to eat at the second Immunity Challenge (half of me says yes, if Rob gave everyone instructions to compete... but I can see the Ashley/Natalie/Andrea group sitting down to eat, too - which bodes well for Rob/Grant/etc. who probably end up competing)

...oh, and I guess one more question: Does Phillip get blindsided or front-sided? (my guess would be blind-sided, since there are still Zapatera left, which won't make Phillip feel very good, and will cost someone a vote - plus make for a wild jury statement/question, if he makes it that far)


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-13-11 at 12:19 PM
Thanks, Krautboy! That means alot. I hope we are not wrong! I always thought that Rob wanted to drag Phillip post merge, because he could use him as a "shield" for one TC, before having to rely on his last resort...his HII. This may be the episode that prolongs Rob's survivor life...

"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by tribephyl on 04-11-11 at 04:48 PM
Excellent job, my GahdFlower!

It's so tough figuring these double boot episodes and you did a bang up job.
By the way. This is for you...


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-11-11 at 08:13 PM
TRIBE....you have made me an offah, I can't refuse...I <3 my new siggie, and I <3 <3 you....a double <3 for a double boot...

You are the MAN, and way to stick to your GUNS last week, Tribe! You are the amazing one...now fingers are crossed that Mike and Phil will be sleepin wit the fishies...

PS. I have always loved a little movement in my siggies...



"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by michel on 04-11-11 at 07:57 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-11 AT 07:59 PM (EST)

Nice SOTS, FP. I really like those banners. Very imaginative!

I don't think Phillip is the boot. I still think it will be Mike and Steve. Steve doesn't like a landslide but that's what he'll get.

As for the people that like the RI twist, can I point out that this will be the second episode this season that won't eliminate anyone. That's without counting last episode that had, as end result, the elimination of Sarita and nothing else. Boring.

And I certainly hope that Jeff will not use the "triple duel" oxymoron.


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-11-11 at 08:30 PM
Michel: I am glad that you brought up Steve because he certainly is a viable candidate. I wanted to point out this frame from last weeks episode as well. Last week when the new tribe was sleeping at night and it was storming, when the Ome's were shown dry under the tarp, and the Zap's were miserable and wet, Steve had a confessional. He told us the situation, and then he noted if Matt and Andrea didn't join them that they would be dead. When he had this confessional, this is what was showing on the screen...

I thought it was quite a powerful portrait....a shot of them all looking dead. We know that Matt didn't go with them so now they are dead. I got the impression he was speaking as the narrator though, and didn't see it as him specifically. His confessionals really are holding steady, and he was no where in the vidcaps. I could be wrong...he's a valid boot choice.



"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by michel on 04-11-11 at 09:07 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-11-11 AT 09:15 PM (EST)

Also, I'm counting that Mike and Steve were pictured together when Jeff introduced the RI twist in epi#1.

BTW, I just saw the promo live where Rob says:

"I can't shake this idol paranoia..."

It tells me he wants to get rid of the paranoia, not the idol. No one finds it but everyone keeps looking for an idol, HIS idol. He'd like people to forget about the idol because, sooner or later, they'll figure he has it.

ETA: That idol paranoia could result in getting the other searchers, David or Phillip booted.


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Corvis on 04-11-11 at 09:17 PM
Won't it actually be the third? They didn't have a duel until episode three.

I like the RI twist because voting out is still the climax of the episode, but RI adds something interesting to the story. Matt's journey on RI has been really fun to watch. If he continues and actually re-enters the game AGAIN, that'll be amazing. It could go either way at this point - the next episode will probably provide clues as to which direction he's heading.

Excellent, SOTS, Flowerpower. Thought I admit I am not sold on Phillip as the second boot either. If I were Rob, I'd get rid of two Zappys before taking Phillip out.


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by michel on 04-12-11 at 06:11 PM
Thanks Corvis for correcting me. Yes, it will be the third episode with no one leaving. It makes it worse!

As for the climax, I'd ask you what was the highlight of episode #4: Kristina's boot or Russell's elimination? Only Matt's blindsides have been interesting votes up to now.


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 04-11-11 at 10:55 PM
Thanks for the SOTS. I agree with everything except the Phillip boot. Why would the Ometepes vote out one of their own before a Zapatera? Doesn't make any sense to me.


"The Second IC..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-12-11 at 06:33 AM
Tribephyl has posted pictures of the second IC here. As he noted the name of the challenge is "Gang Hang". As Tribe also noted, they ran it with 4 women and 6 guys....he speculates, could this imply that a male was voted out at the last IC....YES! He also noted that a male and a female originally chose to sit out.

Looking at this challenge, it does appear to favor a smaller frame. Perhaps Andrea could pull it out. I don't know if any of the big Zap men could do it, or David...Julie has quite a bit more muscle mass than the average girl as well, but perhaps she could pull it out as well.

Thanks, Tribe!




"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-12-11 at 06:58 AM
A FINE SOTS indeed! You're so good to keep volunteering, FloPo.

This week is hard for me to get a handle on as there doesn't seem to be much pointing at who goes. I think you've nailed the dynamics.

As you know by now, we have a preview of the second challenge, where they will have an endurance contest. I think it is one where Jeff will offer food as they go. In Micronesia, he had way more than one taker. The only two who really hung in there were Parvati and Jason. (Amanda dropped out to pee.) It wasn't the same challenge, but the same psychology.

One small point where I think differently:
a... They all gather at Challenge Beach, where Jiffy tells them that SURPRISE, this is the first of 2 IC's, each followed by a TC

I doubt that he announces the second round in advance. Unlike Big Brother with it's Fast Forward twist, Survivor surprises the castaways with an immunity challenge on what should be a day off by letting them know they have tree mail.

I don't know why Rob would turn on Phillip with presumably 4 Zaps left in, and all strong. He might want him as a goat for real now. Rob has 4 real enemies who are united, and one (Phillip) who is somewhat of an ally to Rob and doesn't really know his enemies. The others seem more dangerous to me.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/User_
files/4d6c77f2d539489d.jpg

"Sometimes it's
not enough to know what things mean, sometimes
you have to know what things don't mean." — Bob
Dylan


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Corvis on 04-12-11 at 02:23 PM
Great job, Flowerpower!

I am with the group that doesn't think we'll see Phillip get the boot this week. But I don't think it'll be Steve either, the choice of some who aren't choosing Phillip. I'd like to make the case for either David or Ralph.

Both disappeared in confessionals last week which can sometimes suggest a boot coming in the next episode. Also, the reason Steve was on the radar last episode was because Matt suggested his name noting that he didn't think Zappy would give him the idol. Rob is going to target the people he thinks are the biggest threats.

Mike is an obvious target, and Rob mentioned him as the first to go last episode. But I think David is going to be on Rob's radar after last week too. For one, David is the other person besides Rob who is good at puzzles. And two, David called Rob's plan genius at TC. He saw the brilliance of the move and that will make Rob nervous.

Ralph is clearly a strong competitor and a threat. Also, Ralph does not like Rob. You can hear all about that in the extra clip on the CBS website. There's no way he's been able to hide that from Rob. Therefore, I think Ralph is a bigger threat and more annoying to have around in Rob's eyes than Steve.

To my mind, the three people at risk this week are Mike, David and Ralph. Two of the three will be booted. But which ones???


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by CTgirl on 04-12-11 at 02:56 PM
AMAZING job FloPo!

I agree that Mike will be the first boot and will be sent to Redemption Island to finally give Matt so competition!

At first, when I saw Phillip with his feather, I thought that he would be the second boot. But now I'm beginning to think that that was misdirection and the Omes will target another Zapetera. David is featured in several of the vidcaps, so I'm leaning towards him.

Thank you so much for organizing it all! I always look forward to reading what you have to say! You rock girl!!


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-12-11 at 03:51 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-12-11 AT 03:51 PM (EST)

You know CTGirl, I think David is my second choice. You know what could happen that we haven't speculated...David could possibly win the first IC. If he did that would certainly open Rob's eyes. Rob couldn't have anyone left in the game that could possibly beat him at a puzzle...also, he let slip at the TC last episode that he threw the challenge....definitely, Rob will not forget that. We do see him at camp eating rice with Grant though, so more than likely, he doesn't win it. But, let's be open about it...if he did, I can see them voting Mike out. Then the next TC, David would definitely rise in the crosshairs.

David may be in the crosshairs just for his admission at TC last episode. He is also seen more in the vidcaps than Steve. He's my alternate pick.



"Idol Paranoia"
Posted by dabo on 04-12-11 at 04:03 PM
Great SOTS! Is it still paranoia if they are really out to get you?

So, what is Rob's idol paranoia? It basically seems to me it must be wondering whether Ralph's HII is put back in play. If Rob doesn't find a clue he has to wonder whether there was one and who found it. Will one of his team turn on him? Withhold information from him? They might.

But as long as Rob has his HII and can keep it his worry is not so much whether someone comes after him, turns on him, but when he may need to play his HII. He doesn't have to worry that much about Phillip as long as he can gather the information he needs should Phillip turn against him. Andrea threw Matt under the bus when he talked too much, everyone knows already Phillip talks too much, secure Andrea and she will throw Phillip under the bus when the time comes. Reveal his HII to trusted teammates, including Andrea?

Winning II takes the pressure off, he can hold his HII and no one can move against him personally.

If Ralph's HII is back in play, even if not, he does have to play the game of hunting the elusive HII. If none is found assume Ralph, who found it once already, may have found it, and may waste it again if he thinks he needs to, this time to save himself.

Can't afford to split a vote if Zapatera maintains a solid five. Cut a deal, make David an offer ha can't refuse. Ralph doesn't like David or Rob. Leave Ralph alone, gun for Mike, if Ralph wastes the HII again it will be on himself. No play of HII, next round play the same game on Ralph, secure David, target Julie or Steve.

Tough week but Phillip should be safe unless he does something unpredictably stupid. Which, of course, is entirely possible. But otherwise it makes sense to Pagong the Zapatera.


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-12-11 at 04:48 PM
Great SOTS, FloPo.

But like a lot of others I really don't see any rationale for Phillip leaving now. I expect him to be around until the end.


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 04-12-11 at 08:12 PM
Great SOTS, FloPo! You've really done a nice job of pulling everything together in such a tough (but fascinating) week of spoiling. This is turning out to be the best collaborative spoiling season since maybe Thailand, and it's been a blast trying to figure out who goes each week.

A question for everyone here... why does everyone seem so sure that Mike goes first? Am I missing something here? It seems pretty much unanimous both here and on the voting thread that Mike is first. I get that he's a big threat but so are several others.


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by michel on 04-12-11 at 08:22 PM
Rob targeted Mike first last time before changing to Matt. Voting Steve was only a way to avoid the HII. Now that it's gone, Mike is naked.

"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by dabo on 04-12-11 at 09:01 PM
Decapitation strategy. It helps that the Ometepes all view Mike as a big challenge threat, and he nearly won the first individual immunity, so he's wearing the bull's-eye to begin with. But at the merge Zapatera finally formed into a realitively solid unit under Mike's leadership, take out the leader and the remaining Zaps are no longer a team.

"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-12-11 at 11:34 PM
Pepe, one other reason for Rob to send Mike earlier vs. later is that he really wants to make sure that Matt loses on RI this time around. Mike and Ralph would seem to be the best bets to defeat Matt on RI.

That said, though, I personally like Mike and think he's a pretty smart player. And his story/edit seems to be the best out of the remaining Zaps. So wouldn't be surprised if he makes an RI run and/or somehow sticks around a while longer.


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-12-11 at 11:25 PM
Awesome SOTS, FloPo! I've been traveling a lot and can't keep up with spoiling anymore, so I truly appreciate the work that you and other SOTS writers put in each week to pull things together. Thanks again.

Does anyone have an account with CBS Press Express? The press photos are posted now - perhaps they might point us in the right direction re this week's boots.

E.g., there's an interesting shot of Rob, Grant, Natalie and Mike sitting around the campfire. Also, there's one of Julie where she appears to have wet hair/bathing suit and looks unhappy, so it *might* be her after losing in the 2nd challenge. (She would seem to be a good contender for that challenge.) But it's hard to tell since I can only view them small without an account. Here's a link: http://www.cbspressexpress.com/div.php/cbs_entertainment/photos?adodb_next_page=1&


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-12-11 at 11:27 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-13-11 AT 00:15 AM (EST)

P.S. Also a sad/pensive David photo.

ETA: Just noticed in the captions that the 1st challenge is called Meso Soup. Does the name tie in with the crazy looking thing at the end? Also, these shots appear to show the 2 sets of 3 who proceed to the 2nd section:


So we can rule out a bunch of people to win the 1st IC and Rob is still in contention. Only real surprise is David being there...as spec'd, if he wins the puzzle part over Rob (or comes close), that might impact boot order.


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Corvis on 04-13-11 at 09:25 AM
Couldn't these pics be from the start of the challenge with everyone still in contention? How do they rule anyone out? I must be missing something...

"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-13-11 at 11:39 AM
Corvis: If you look at those pictures you will see a green tile that's still in tact, while the one on the right of it is broken...the first heat must have ended as soon as the first six were through, leaving some tiles unbroken. Also, they look to be hanging in back of the line up. So, we assume that this is the start of the 2nd heat...check the vidcaps thread...

"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Corvis on 04-13-11 at 12:16 PM
Thanks, that makes sense!

"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by dabo on 04-12-11 at 11:38 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-13-11 AT 00:38 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 04-12-11 AT 11:42 PM (EST)

Can't tell with my eyes, background is ???

ETA

Probst at Gang Hang

ETA



"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Blind Freddy on 04-13-11 at 01:15 AM
Great SOTS FlowerPower!

Still traveling...seems like I'm playing catch up full time now :-/ I do appreciate all the analysis and efforts here....great job guys.

The SOTS's stated targets seem to fit the analysis. I wonder if David might slip in there as a threat for the second boot, he's been a little more high profile lately.

BF


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by ajglitch on 04-13-11 at 10:47 AM
Best SOTs of the season - thanks.

After having read everyone's comments and the SOTs I am firmly standing behind my claim that it will be Mike and David tonight. Rob for sure a II and while I've read the speculation about Grant and his Yoga (I think it is Grant?) I don't think that will help him in the long run. I still believe it will be Andrea.

On Phillip, he is getting way to much camera time on his quirkiness. I do not think this means he is going as sometimes is the case when one individual gets this type of attention. I believe he is in for the run to at least 4/5.

IMHO


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by dabo on 04-13-11 at 11:03 AM
Kudos on picking Matt last week. I hope you're wrong about Phillip getting so far into the game but I've somewhat resigned myself to the idea he's everyone's first goat choice to take to Final. In which case he just has to do something incredibly screwy to get voted out.

"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Corvis on 04-13-11 at 07:16 PM
You know what's making me suddenly start leaning toward Phillip getting booted with 45 minutes to go til showtime? On the Survivor Facebook page, they highlighted him twice in the past 24 hours. Milking the crazy Phillip before they let him go? Ack.

Now I am starting to think FloPo has had it right all along...


"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-13-11 at 07:19 PM
Your lips, to God's ears, Corvis...





"RE: Ep 9, "The Buddy System", SOTS"
Posted by Blind Freddy on 04-13-11 at 08:20 PM
Ok enough...I can handle some JP arm twisting, some SEG smoke and mirrors and some MB slight of hand. But when the hand of God is involved, I want odds....and lots of them.....

BF


"Somewhat off topic, but..."
Posted by Corvis on 04-13-11 at 12:18 PM
Just in case Spoilers aren't checking out the games forum, I thought I'd mention that there's a new game starting this week, a blast from the past: The Anti-Boot!

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID102/1270.shtml#5