LAST EDITED ON 04-05-11 AT 12:00 PM (EST)

ADVISORY: Vote threads are open to all who wish to participate and cast their votes, spoilers and non-spoilers alike. The posts initiating these threads contain no spoiler information other than perhaps referencing what has been revealed in TV promos for the upcoming episode. Non-spoilers, be advised that spoilers may include information in their posts here which you may not wish to read. Spoilers, please do not include spoiler information for future episodes, stick to the episode in question.

The Rules

1. Put the name of your choice for this week's boot in the subject heading.

This is easy, just erase where it says "Re: SurvivorBlowsTribe, Time to Vote..." and replace with your vote on which player will get the boot, e.g., "Julie." Or, if you think this will be a two-boot week: "Julie and Andrea." It doesn't matter which order you put them in unless it matters to you.

This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately. Nicknames are tougher to tally unless they are really obvious without actually reading your post. Other things you want to vote on (what's for dinner, who wins what, will HII's be in play), these should go in your post not in your subject line.

("Boot" defines as voted out of a tribe, either exiled to Redemption Island or, when Redemption Island is no longer a factor in the game, eliminated from the game. Quitters are also regarded as boots though whether they would be exiled or eliminated/disqualified is unknown. It is assumed that medical evacuees would be eliminated/disqualified without prejudice.)

1b. The process for voting on which Exile on Redemption Island will be eliminated from the game.

Place your elimination vote anywhere in the subject line with the boot vote. Place an "X" in front of the name of the exile you think will lose the duel and be eliminated from the game, as in XMatthew or XSarita. Alternately, should you wish to save space in the subject line, cast your vote using the exile's placement number determined by the time of their arrivals on Redemption Island, noted in the list below in this post. Exile 2, Matthew, would be X2. Exile 7, Sarita, would be X7.

1c. Returnees.

This section is to note that it is theoretically possible for a player to be returned to the game immediately after a duel and subsequently be voted out again within the same episode. So theoretically an exile could also get the boot, both votes could be for exiles. Hence the importance of the X, please get in the habit.

2. Reply only to this post.

We like to keep our votes threads nice and straight.

EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES!

2b. But to change your vote (or add additional votes) reply to your own previous vote post.

Your new post heading should read, for example, "VOTE CHANGE: Sarita." Or perhaps "VOTE CHANGE: Sarita and Matt" if you think it will be a two-boot week.

You should also use this process of replying to your own vote post to make additional votes, should you wish to vote for a boot but still think about it before you vote for an elimination, or vice versa.

3. This is not a discussion thread, do not treat it as such.

There are plenty of places on the forum to debate the merits of people's arguments, have discussions, have civil and polite disagreements, don't do it here.

But please feel free to discuss your vote in your own post, cast all the extra votes you want, we're all interested in what you have to say. And KB wants your challenge votes for scoring purposes! (I don't actually know how he's going to score things post-merge, it's his decision, but you may as well make your challenge picks just in case.)

4. No graphics, particularly no sig pics.

If you must have a graphic make it pertinent to something. Thank you.

5. Have fun!

The DAWS!

Ometepe (orange) tribe

Andrea
Ashley
Grant
Natalie
Phillip
Boston Rob

Zapatera (purple) tribe

David
Julie
Mike
Ralph "Rooster"
Steve

Redemption Island

exile 2. Matthew (Ometepe)
exile 7. Sarita (Zapatera)

Eliminated

Francesca (Ometepe, exile 1)
Russell (Zapatera, exile 3)
Kristina (Ometepe, exile 4)
Krista (Zapatera, exile 5)
Stephanie (Zapatera, exile 6)

Jury

none

• XSarita ~ Mike,dabo, 11:58 AM, 04-05-11
• Mike xSarita,kiki_k, 12:05 PM, 04-05-11
• Phillip X Sarita, Matt returns, Nat wins IC,kingfish, 12:43 PM, 04-05-11
• Steve................XSarita..............RMatt..............ICNatalie,Woogie, 12:52 PM, 04-05-11
• Matt xSarita,ajglitch, 01:15 PM, 04-05-11
• XSarita, Mike Booted,HitmanPayne, 03:01 PM, 04-05-11
• Matt XSarita,tribephyl, 03:20 PM, 04-05-11
• Mike, x Sarita,Travel_Queen, 05:00 PM, 04-05-11
  • RE: Mike, x Sarita,Travel_Queen, 11:01 AM, 04-06-11
• Mike XSorryta,michel, 06:22 PM, 04-05-11
• Sarita goes home, Mike is voted out, Matt returns & Natalie wins Immunity,Belle Book, 09:59 PM, 04-05-11
• Mike voted off, Sarita loses duel,Round Robin, 01:14 AM, 04-06-11
• Mike - xSarita,parathor, 08:57 AM, 04-06-11
• Mike......X-Sarita,Loree, 10:10 AM, 04-06-11
• Vote Tally #1,dabo, 10:32 AM, 04-06-11
• Rooster xSarita R Matt ,emydi, 10:47 AM, 04-06-11
• X Sarita - Mike,Brownroach, 11:02 AM, 04-06-11
• Mike xSarita,Corvis, 11:52 AM, 04-06-11
• Mike~XSarita,Flowerpower, 12:05 PM, 04-06-11
• x Sarita....Mike,Krautboy, 12:55 PM, 04-06-11
• Mike xSarita,Blind Freddy, 01:48 PM, 04-06-11
• Mike/X Sarita,samboohoo, 02:10 PM, 04-06-11
• Rooster xSarita,vince3, 04:13 PM, 04-06-11
• Mike, XSarita,CTgirl, 04:30 PM, 04-06-11
• Mike ... xSarita,PepeLePew13, 06:02 PM, 04-06-11
• Ralph,Outfrontgirl, 08:03 PM, 04-06-11
• Congratulations,Brownroach, 11:23 AM, 04-07-11
  • RE: Congratulations,Flowerpower, 07:20 PM, 04-07-11

Wild TC as everyone tries to outflank, split votes, coax out HIIs, blindside, and play international diplomacy all at the same time. Rob wins II. In the end it is a traditional merge boot.

LAST EDITED ON 04-05-11 AT 12:09 PM (EST)

Mike's confessional spike seals his fate, IMO.
Sarita loses to Matt -- I think that is obvious thanks to VG.
I think there will be a male & female IC winner. For the women: Natalie wins IC.
For the men: Rob wins IC -- I'm thinking that he doesn't play his HII yet so the only way that can happen is if he wins the IC.

I feel very confident about this -- let's see how that works out.

For Rob to begin on the road to not getting to F3 (my wild guess) an Ometepe has to go this week. Most likely that would be Phil the pill.

Sarita will win the midnight challenge, then, satisfied with that, she'll lose the RI challenge.

The tray balance requires an ex-waitress, and the perch requires a dancer. Nat has the best chance here.

And:

"Because Spoiler to the stars, MissyPissy says so!"

1. duel : Matt wins(and returns)

2. Merge

3. IC : I'm against the idea of having 2 Individual Immunity for each Men and Women, the numbers differ 8 to 4 and I'm not sure they are willing to do it. If they do, I'll say Natalie and Grant winning IC.

4. TC : This is hard to figure out. I'm pretty torn between Matt and David at this moment. Phillip is decoy, again. I really wish they stop using Phillip as a misdirection. Mike's name is also all around the place but if I was Rob I would pick someone they are not focusing now. Perhaps, like, Steve!!!

I fully believe Matt will return this week and be promptly punted back to the island as neither tribe will want to have to face him in II.

LAST EDITED ON 04-05-11 AT 03:02 PM (EST)

Sarita is already gone, Matt returning was spoiled by CBS's preview.

Mike seems like the most logical boot to me. He's probably the strongest physically on the Remaining Zaps. Also, it doesn't seem like Phillip would be leaving as everyone expects. Phillip told Rob that he owns his vote until he isn't needed. I would think Rob would want to keep him around to keep the target off of himself until Phillip is expendable.

Natalie wins Immunity challenge also.

Voting has turned into a game and I can no longer resist. SO...
I'm of the camp (and yes, it seems a lonely camp) that believes that all the SeeBS teasers for this week are directly related to one individual, Matt.
He wins RI only to return to a newly formed merge tribe that can't figure out what to do with him. Fearful of him being an asset to either group, Matt gets 'Dolly'ed (is voted out) and must return to RI.
How's that for jaw-dropping?

I think this season is all about the redemption of one "Boston" Rob Mariano. His game is near perfect. I don't think he will rid of Matt quite so soon and definitely not with the help of a Zapatera. Rob has been shown to keep "his" group unified and that includes Matt, who he woos back into the fold. Is he wary of Matt, of course and it could cost him. Also I don't think Matt's challenges were really an indication of how well he could do at II, physical challenges he could be beaten by Mike, Grant and Rob himself. Mental challenges by Rob and David.

The person I think Rob is talking about using both sides is David; and he may also be a target, Rob doesn't want anyone with a plan that might affect his master plan. The Ome's need a little buffer with fewer Zap members, knock them off one by one unless they win II. They might even flush Rooster's Idol.

For II, I'm going with Natalie, dancer = balance. If it's not her, it will be another woman that is not named Julie.

Mike is pictured as a boot candidate and he has no personal story since his opening confessional. He was Crap's narrator and now the tribe is no more. Crash and burn and he won't be coming back either.

Sorryta was boring beyond description so I'm glad we know she's leaving. Time to get her teeth fixed. To think that was her big story of the season!!!! So much excitement.

Can we also make a prediction for the player to come up with the tribe name? I'll bet on Ashley.

Sarita loses the duel to Matt and the guy promptly joins the merged tribe.

Natalie wins Immunity although I could see Ashley or even Andrea winning Immunity.

Mike is voted out and has to go to Redemption Island.

I can't come up with that strong of a reason why Mike should go, but with 3 or 4 Ometepes who IMO would flip in a New York minute if it was 6-5 next week, I don't see Rob going after one of his own this week. Therefore, in either a normal post-merge voteoff or as a bounce victim of an attempt to flush out Ralph's HII, Mike is the most likely votee. As for the duel, no way nohow will Sarita beat Matt. Can't happen. And despite Phil's contempt for her, I think Ashley shows she has more on the ball than he thinks by winning the IC.

Boot: Mike
He "needs to make a big move," and the game respects big moves. The game also respects numbers and logic, and really, this is the most logical choice.

(I'd also accept "Steve" as an answer)

Eliminated: Sarita
Even if it wasn't a foregone conclusion now that Matt returns, and that Sarita already won her million dollars with Russell's defeat, we had the "I spy..." photo capture of Matt helping build the new shelter. It's almost cheating to say Sarita loses.

Merge Name Creator: Rob
I theorized that Rob created the name as an homage to former Red Sox utility player (and Nomar BFF) Lou Merloni, who was frequently shuttled between the majors (in Boston) & minors (in RI) (Murloni = Merloni?), known as the "Merloni Shuttle." With no other found Spanish word for Murlonia out there, it seems just as good a reason as any other.

Individual Immunity: Natalie
Natalie seems the safest choice to win based on the promo pics (waitress + dancer = good balancer), but what I really liked was someone's idea that she gives her necklace to Rob. That'd be "jaw-dropping," but not too jaw-dropping, since they're both essentially safe (Jeff is prone to hyperbole)

Ralph Plays the Hidden Immunity: Yes
What'd be the cherry-on-top after having Rob get individual immunity (from winning or from Natalie), kicking out the biggest threat on Zap (Mike), and bringing Matt back under control? Getting rid of the other team's "hidden" immunity necklace! The stars are aligned on Rob's redemption this season, so why not give him something extra to talk about next week?

New Hidden Immunity Necklace at New Camp: Yes
...and why not just say "Rob finds the clue to the new necklace during the merge party," too, for good measure (he can find it next week... to give him something to do, and something for us to watch, while they pagong Zapatera)

There are lots of ways the vote can go this week. But the simplest deduction is that the challenge threat from the smaller tribe gets voted out. That is Mike. So unless he wins II I think he will be the target. Both Rob and Grant will want him out of there.

Individual Immunity will probably be won by a woman. I am putting my money on ANDREA. She is tough and determined. She doesn't feel as safe as some of the others on that tribe.

This is Vote Tally #1, post #14, compiling 13 previous posts, all voting; 13 boot votes and 13 elimination vote.

RI Elimination
Sarita: 13
Matt: 0

TC Boot
Mike: 9
Matt: 2
Phillip: 1
Steve: 1

Combos
XSarita / Mike: 9
XSarita / Matt: 2
XSarita / Phillip: 1
XSarita / Steve: 1

II Winners (optional on future tallies, not binding on talliers)
Natalie: 4
Andrea: 1
Ashley: 1
Natalie & Grant: 1
Natalie & Rob: 1
Rob: 1

Matt returns we know

Philip infiltrates the Zaps stealth-like and finds out for Rob that they are worried about Mike leaving and Rooster gives up the idol to him... Then they Eduardo Rooster right out of the game.

Or not

Rob wins II and keeps hold of HII for later

I'm not sensing from the promos and teasers that anything out of the ordinary will be happening, so one of the Zap males will go. Mike's little spike in facetime and presence in the previews makes him a good candidate.

I've come around to thinking that Matt will not get a special immunity, because then they'd presumably have to do the same for the person who re-enters the game later on, which I can't see.

I think one of the men or possibly Julie will win regular immunity; the Ometepe women don't need it and won't bother to try hard in the challenge. I'm going to guess that Rob wins and is spared from making a decision about whether to play his idol.

The confessional bump, the fact that he is an immunity threat, and that he says in the preview that he is going for broke all indicate Mike is in danger. There's no reason for Matt to join with Zappy - it makes no sense at this point - and there's no reason for Rob to target him yet. The same idea applies to Phillip and Andrea, who I am sure realize they will need to make a move eventually. But it's too soon. Take out some Zappys and then align with whoever is left to take down Rob. That's the best move for Matt, Andrea and Phillip. We'll see if they're smart enough to do it. Or if Rob is smart enough to stop it.

But in any case, none of that is going to start this episode. The best move for all of Ometepe is to start Pagonging the Zappys.

IC winner: Natalie.

LAST EDITED ON 04-06-11 AT 03:08 PM (EST)

I am pretty much seeing eye to eye at this point with Brownroach.

Here are who I think the boot choices are:

1. Rob
2. Ralph
3. Mike
4. Steve
5. Phillip
6. Matt

First of all, Matt will win the RI duel and get back in the game. I do not think he'll have immunity in the first challenge. He is forgiving and will size up his options, and will be drawn back to the Ometepe's for now. He'll seek Rob out and strike a deal to work together, for now, as per the handshake. (I really had to explore him as I do think that at some point in time, he'll be the number one target. Dabo helped me realize if Matt were to go this week, it would be hard for Rob to control the vote next week...)

Phillip will definitely like the Zaps better and will note their great work ethic. But, as Jeff has told us, he's not dumb. While he respects them, he knows he most likely can not beat them mano y mano. So, he will bide his time and try to work his "plan" that he discussed with Andrea earlier. He will sit tight with the Ome's. I do think that he will spout off AGAIN at the TC, which could lead to his boot next week. He is definitely on Rob's radar.

Rob has 7 votes. He will want to keep it simple, I think. If Mike does not win the IC, and I highly doubt Rooster will, then Rob will spread the rumor that the plan is to target Ralph. All he has to do is let Ralph get wind that he could be the target, which would force him to play the HII. Ralph will most likely play it. Meanwhile, Rob will have all of them vote for Mike, the largest threat to win challenges. Phillip may be once again instructed to vote for Ralph at the TC. All of the Zaps will most likely vote for Rob. Rob doesn't have to play his HII. Ralph's idol is gone, and so is the challenge threat, Mike.

Let's say that Mike wins the IC, which he could. Then I think the same plan would come into play, but Steve would be the next victim.

And, to cover all bases here, if there is a second vote, a double boot this week, which I doubt, but it could happen, then I predict Ralph would be next. Plays is HII on the first vote, Mike/Steve goes. Second vote to boot someone immediately after the first, Ralph goes.

The Zaps could target Rob or Grant.

I predict the only thing jaw dropping about the TC will be Phillip and his mouth and probably something to do with that darn lion and gorilla....

ETA: Immunity Challenge Winner: Natalie

LAST EDITED ON 04-06-11 AT 12:57 PM (EST)

Matt wins the duel and returns to the game.

The tribes scramble to win Matt’s loyalty. The misdirection in the previews are intended to create doubt about Matt, Andrea and Phillip, but eventually Rob and Matt reach an agreement and shake hands.

Mike goes for broke at the challenge, as do Rob and Grant…they all know they are likely targets post merge. The others are not as concerned and probably drop out quickly. Grant has the required hand-eye coordination and his training as a Yoga instructor gives him the edge in balance, and calm breathing.

Grant wins immunity.

Jeff’s “jaw dropping” comment was made in response to a question in his blog, but was not included in any other promos, so nothing too surprising will happen.

At TC Grant will keep his Immunity Necklace, Ralph will play his HII, Rob will draw the Zapatera votes, but Mike will be voted out by the united Ometepe.

Am on the road this week so haven't kept up with all the events. But after reviewing the experts here...I'm tending to agree that Mike is the high profile target on the Zaps. And that most all of the msdirection is just that.

VG's great catch of Matt back at camp makes the RI boot easy.

Good job everyone...the SOTS and posting here have helped me out considerably this week, thanks!

Samboobree, brought to life by Arkie

I think I want to try something different...

Sarita's probably gone, no doubt about it: Last week's TC pretty much put her in miserable-ville, and it'll be tough to get out of it... even with Redemption at stake. So, she's toast.

Now to the IC. I think we will see 2 necklaces tonight, and it's one per gender. I'm gonna go with Natalie for the girls, and Dave for the boys.

For the TC, I think all heck's gonna break loose as all sides want to try to flush out HIIs and/or eliminate the holders without them playing it... It's possible that each side could play 'Hide the Idol' and hope that they picked the one the other side will vote on, so a played Idol bounces the vote back. I think, however, Rooster's early season crowing is gonna come back to haunt him about finding the HII in Ep. 1

LAST EDITED ON 04-06-11 AT 04:39 PM (EST)

My reasons are in the SOTS.

Overall immunity winner - Natalie. Matt if there is a male and female winner.

I think the handshake we're seeing in the promos is between Rob and Mike - Rob's going to play some kind of a game to get intel or some other kind of an agreement with Mike, then he's going to hedge his bets on an idol bounce by doing a 5-2 Ometepe voting split. Whether Mike is the direct target or the victim of an idol bounce, he's going to be booted.

There won't be individual immunity for both men and women because the numbers are too one-sided in favour of the men to make it fair. I project that Grant will win immunity because of his competitiveness, yoga ability and desire to ensure that a Zap doesn't win it. Natalie/Ashley are too lazy and indifferent about trying to win immunity while Andrea won't outlast Grant.

Sarita - it's been spoiled that Matt will return from RI.

Summary:
RI = Matt wins, ciao Sarita
IC = Grant wins
Boot = Mike

Sorry about last minute vote.
No idea who goes really.

Spec: No one on Zap knows that Ralph blew it about his idol now that Sarita is gone. Matt tells Rob, who already knows.

Rob gets the intel out that the Ome's are targeting Mike, and instead they vote Ralph hoping he does not play his idol, which he doesn't.

Bonus if he gives the idol to Mike.

...to ajglitch and tribephyl, who were the only two who picked Matt to get the boot. Though Matt didn't technically get "dollied", tribe's take on what would happen was pretty close to the mark.

...and to all who said that Natalie would win immunity.

Here, here! Way to think outside the box, and STAY outside the box! You two ROCK! Congratulations and well done!